Banco Santander, S.A.

Banco Santander, S.A.

84,500.00
ARS
-2,700.00
(-3.10%)
1.97EPS
38,296.78P/E
290.00TMarket Cap
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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 22, 2026

Raúl Sinha

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Santander's first half 2026 results presentation. Today's presentation will follow the usual structure.

First, Héctor will talk about our results with a special focus on the performance of our global businesses. José will then cover the financial results in more detail.

Finally, Héctor will close with the outlook before we open the line for Q&A. Before we start, I would like to highlight that this is the first quarter in which TSB is included in our results after the acquisition closed on the 30th of April.

Our underlying metrics exclude the impact of Poland and TSB integration-related restructuring costs to provide a clearer view of the underlying trends. With that, Héctor, over to you.

Héctor Grisi

Thanks, Rahul, and good morning to everyone. Q2 was another record quarter for Santander, demonstrating, again, the strength of our strategy and the resilience of our business model.

Our quarterly profit hit a new record of €3.8 billion, making H1 '26 the best half ever, driven by strong revenue growth across global businesses and our growing franchise of 182 million customers, up by more than 12 million year on year, including the 4 million TSB customers we welcomed to the group in May. We achieved this while executing ONE Transformation, making excellent progress towards a simpler and more integrated model.

This is translating into tangible results, with efficiency improving by 3 percentage points and underlying RoTE increasing to 15.6%. Our balance sheet remains very solid, with robust credit quality and a strong CET1 ratio of 14%, which includes the impact of TSB.

In this context of high capital levels, underlying RoTE adjusted for excess capital is close to 17%. All of this continues to translate into strong shareholder value creation, with TNAV plus dividend per share growing 19%.

Before I move on, let me make a brief comment on TSB. As Rahul mentioned, TSB closed on April the 30th, only contributing with two months of results, the impact on year-on-year trend is limited.

José will provide more detail, where relevant, later in the presentation. Our P&L remains very solid, with underlying profit growing 14% year on year.

We delivered strong top-line growth, with revenue up 6% in constant euros, supported by NII increasing 6% on the back of margin resilience and profitable volumes growth, as well as record fees, up 7%, rising across all businesses and countries. This reflects the structural trends driven by deeper customer relationships and stronger connectivity across the group.

Revenue grew while we reduced costs once again, showcasing the possibility and the positive effects of our transformation. LLPs were affected by Argentina, reflecting sector-wide trends in the country.

Excluding Argentina, provisions were broadly stable year on year. Finally, in H1, we recorded €245 million gross impact related to motor finance in Openbank Europe, most of it booked in Q1.

All in all, as we have shown over time, our results are sustainable and less volatile than peers, even in challenging environments. What we are seeing again this quarter clearly reflects the strategy we presented at Investor Day.

Our unique business model combines global and in-market scale with customer focus and diversification across Europe and the Americas, and the model keeps delivering consistent results: higher revenue, lower cost, improved profitability, and stronger shareholder value creation. Now let me talk about our customers.

Three structural trends continue to strengthen the quality of our results. First, we are attracting more customers.

Second, customers are doing more with us. Active customers are growing faster, and fees per active customer increased by 3%, reflecting higher engagement and broader use of our products and services.

Third, we continue to improve our efficiency across the group. Together, these three trends make our profitability improvements increasingly sustainable over time.

As you can see, we continue to deliver on our transformation, driving operational leverage through structural improvements that are under our control. Simplification and automation have delivered more than 1 percentage point of efficiencies.

Our network businesses are generating strong positive jaws, and our global technology platforms continue to improve productivity while we start to capture benefits from AI. Our five global businesses continue to deliver strong and balanced growth, driven by customer activity, diversification, and scale.

Retail and Openbank illustrate the power of our model. Revenue grew 4% and costs fell by 3%, driving higher profitability through operational leverage.

At the same time, CIB, Wealth, and Payments demonstrate the power of our global capabilities and connectivity, driving strong revenue growth and improving efficiency. Together, these businesses, combined with our focus on disciplined capital allocation, are driving higher returns and solid progress towards our targets.

Let's now look at each of them. In Retail, we continue to transform our model, combining cutting-edge technology with the expertise and proximity of our teams to deliver the best customer experience.

Our customer interaction platform is live in five markets and is ready to roll out in Spain. It helps us to personalize customer interactions at scale, improving conversion and strengthening customer primacy.

In Commercial, our new model is delivering excellent results in Spain, with revenue up 17% and costs down 3% year on year. We are better aligning our service model with customer needs, improving their experience while reducing our cost base.

Using advanced analytics, we identify high-growth companies and connect them with more value-added solutions, deepening relationships and capturing a greater share of their financial needs. Following this success, we are now rolling out the model across Brazil, Mexico, UK, Chile, and Portugal.

As a result, Retail fees grew 6%, cost per active customer declined 6%, and productivity keeps improving. Overall, Retail's underlying profit grew 12% year on year, driven by strong operational leverage, while asset quality remained robust, with cost of risk improving, excluding Argentina.

As you probably know, Webster also reported another strong quarter yesterday, demonstrating again the quality of the franchise with a 17% RoTE, excluding transaction costs, and continued volume growth. Overall, these results were in line with market expectations.

Looking ahead, we expect profitable growth to continue as we scale our model, deepen customer relationships, and capture additional efficiencies from TSB and Webster. This quarter, we closed the acquisition of TSB, a highly strategic transaction, and we have taken the first steps in the integration process, which is progressing according to plan.

It adds scale in a core market, strengthens our funding mix through a high-quality deposit base, and enhances our risk profile through a low-risk mortgage portfolio. The combination accelerates the execution of our strategy, enabling us to simplify the business, capture significant efficiencies, and improve the profitability of Santander UK.

This will help us deliver an RoTE of around 16% in Santander UK by '28, supported by at least €400 million of synergies. With Openbank, we are building a more integrated, scalable, and efficient business, supported by our global digital platform.

We are broadening our customer proposition to become our customers' primary digital bank. In Mobility Finance, we are expanding beyond traditional auto lending with new solutions, while we continue to scale our embedded finance business through Openbank Pay, which already serves more than 2.6 million customers.

At the same time, our focus on funding optimization keeps supporting profitability through significant cost savings, especially in the US. This is already translating into strong underlying performance, with solid revenue increase, lower cost, and credit quality under control, driving 15% growth in profit before tax, excluding motor finance.

As anticipated, profit is affected by the end of electric vehicle tax incentives in the US. The tax rate is now expected to remain stable.

Looking ahead, we expect profitability to improve as we continue to scale the business, optimize funding, and deliver further efficiencies. In CIB, we continue to build a world-class business for our corporate and institutional clients, leveraging the strength of our global network.

We are now moving from building capabilities to scaling our franchise, translating them into stronger client relationships. What differentiates us is the connectivity to our franchise, bringing together Santander capabilities to serve our clients in a much more integrated way.

A good example is a client aerospace sector where Commercial Banking, CIB, and Private Banking have worked together throughout the company's growth journey, from day-to-day banking to financing, advising on the latest capital raise and connecting it with private investors. At the same time, we continue to transform our operating model through global platforms and AI, delivering higher productivity and better customer service.

For example, our automated pricer in global markets allow us to serve more clients and improve funding decisions. Even in a more challenging environment, strong client activity continues to drive profitable growth as we focus on efficiency and capital discipline.

As a result, profit rose 17% year on year while maintaining one of the best efficiency ratios in the sector and originating new business at an RoTE of around 23%. In Wealth, we continue to deliver solid growth while executing our strategy, leveraging our global scale and capabilities.

In Private Banking, we are strengthening our advisory proposition for ultra-high-net-worth and family office clients, while leveraging our international franchise to connect clients with the best of Santander globally. As a result, customer assets and liabilities grew 15% and client cross-border referrals increased by more than 20% year on year.

In Insurance and Asset Management, we are increasingly operating as one integrated platform to deliver a more differentiated value proposition. Insurance is one of the biggest growth opportunities across the group.

We continue to strengthen our position in Spain and Portugal, while extending our model to other markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and Chile. We have integrated life and pensions in Brazil and Portugal.

In health, we continue to roll out the innovative solutions such as OneCare in Portugal and Saúde Compara in Brazil. This is already supporting double-digit premium growth across our core insurance businesses.

Together, these initiatives are making our business more scalable, more resilient, and increasingly fee-based. As a result, profit rose 19%, driven by strong commercial momentum across all our business lines.

Finally, Payments, our high-growth platform business. We continue to combine scale with innovation, strengthening our position across the global payments value chain.

In Getnet, we launched the first agentic payments use case in Latin America, positioning us at the forefront of the next generation of digital commerce. Our Getnet platforms processed around 15 billion transactions in the last 12 months alone and support multiple payments methods across markets, driving much better efficiency.

In Ebury, the recent private placements reinforces its long-term growth potential. This is translating into a strong performance on the financial side, with revenue up 17%, EBITDA margin improving to 33%, and profit increasing fourfold year on year, resulting on a Rule of 40 score above 50%.

Overall, the business keeps building strong momentum with clear upside as we continue to scale. Our strong operational and financial performance continues to drive capital generation, higher profitability, and double-digit value creation.

Our CET1 ratio rose to 14%, on track to achieve our year-end target, comfortably above our 12% to 13% operating range. Underlying RoTE improved to 15.6% and is close to 17% at normalized CET1 levels, with further upside from M&A and ONE Transformation.

Underlying earnings per share grew 20% and TNAV plus cash dividend per share increased 19%, reflecting strong profit generation and the impact of buybacks. We have received the approval from the ECB for a new buyback program for up to €1.8 billion against '26 results.

Once the corresponding corporate approvals have been obtained, total share buybacks, including the program currently underway, would reach around €9 billion, close to our commitment of distributing at least €10 billion for the '25 and '26. With that, I will now hand it over to José, who will take you through the financials in more detail.

José García Cantera

Thank you, Héctor, and good morning, everyone. I will now take you through the group's P&L and capital performance in more detail.

Before I begin, let me make two brief points. First, as Héctor and Rahul mentioned, the group's P&L includes two months of TSB's results following its consolidation in May.

I will only refer to its impact where material. Second, as usual, we present growth rates in both current and constant euros.

This period, the difference was not relevant. Turning to performance.

As Héctor mentioned, we are yet again delivering record results in the first half, with solid commercial activity and structural cost efficiency generating strong operational leverage. Revenue grew 6% on the back of solid business activity, while costs declined even after incorporating TSB.

Loan loss provisions were impacted by portfolio deterioration in Argentina, reflecting sector trends in the country. Excluding Argentina, provisions were broadly stable year on year.

The other results line includes motor finance provisions in Openbank Europe of around €245 million, largely booked in the first quarter. As a result, profit grew 14% year on year in constant euros, keeping us firmly on track to deliver our guidance of more than €14.1 billion of profit in 2026, excluding M&A.

Total revenue increased 6% year on year, in line with the target we set for 2026. This growth was underpinned by deeper client relationships, higher levels of engagement, and a total of 12 million new customers over the last 12 months.

All global businesses contributed to revenue growth, which was mainly supported by another record period in CIB, up 16%, backed by growing client flows across business lines with a notable acceleration in global banking fees; in Retail, on the back of stronger customer engagement, reflected in solid NII and fees; and in Openbank, which performed well, supported by higher net interest income and fees. Payments and Wealth did well in fee-generating activities, customer inflows in Wealth, and strong volumes overall.

Fee growth continued to outpace NII, in line with our guidance, reinforcing the quality and diversification of our revenue base. The group's net interest income increased 6% year on year.

The vast majority of our net interest income comes from Retail and Openbank, but this time, CIB also contributed significantly to the overall growth, supported by capital-efficient, high-return activities mainly in global markets. Additionally, NII was resilient in Retail across most countries, driven by volumes and active balance sheet management.

Openbank delivered solid NII growth, supported by higher volumes and margins, both in Europe and South America. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, net interest income was up 3%, excluding TSB, for similar reasons, particularly in Retail in Spain and Chile.

By country, Spain delivered a particularly strong quarter, with NII up 8% versus the first quarter, driven by solid commercial momentum, improving margins, and active balance sheet management. Brazil NII grew 2%, both quarter on quarter and year on year, even as interest rates are normalizing more slowly than initially expected.

All in all, this reflects a stronger and more resilient NII profile than anticipated in Investor Day guidance, as the benefits from higher-for-longer rate environment in most markets more than offset the more moderate contribution from Brazil. Net fee income increased 7% year on year, supported by customer growth, increased activity, and a better mix towards higher value-added products, driven by our network businesses and ONE Transformation.

This is visible across the group. Retail rose 6%, with solid performances widespread across our footprint, backed by customer growth.

Openbank's fees increased 6%, especially in Europe and Brazil, supported by new business volumes and higher insurance activity. In CIB, the sharp pick-up in fees was driven by strong global banking activity across markets, especially in CIB US, where fees grew 40%, up from already high levels last year, reflecting the success of our US build-out initiatives.

In Wealth, fees rose double digits, supported by client inflows mainly in Private Banking. We saw 8% growth in Payments, driven by high activity levels across all business lines, with total payment volumes increasing 10%.

ONE Transformation remains a key driver of our profitability improvement, leveraging our global platforms and connectivity to deliver operational leverage. This is reflected in our efficiency ratio, which improved year on year to 42.8%, supported by strong underlying business dynamics, with revenue increasing and costs declining 1% year on year, down 5% in real terms.

In Retail and Openbank, which are leading our transformation and represent 75% of our cost base, costs declined by 3%, even after incorporating TSB, and as we continue to roll out our global platforms, and revenue grew 4%, resulting in very positive operating jaws. In our network businesses, CIB, Wealth, and Payments, costs grew below total revenue and fee income, reflecting targeted investments in capabilities to drive capital-light growth, maintaining high recurrency levels.

This excellent performance resulted in an 11% rise in net operating income, up from already very high levels last year. Looking ahead, we remain on track to reduce costs despite inflationary pressures.

ONE Transformation and our targeted cost management actions are the two levers that remain firmly within our control. Our balance sheet's risk profile remains low, with sound credit quality across our footprint even in a more complex environment, supported by prudent risk management and resilient labor markets in general.

Having said that, metrics in the first half continue to be impacted by Argentina, reflecting sector-wide trends in the country. However, the cost of risk declined quarter on quarter, showing the first signs of stabilization as the impact of lower new production begins to feed through.

Excluding Argentina, the group's underlying credit quality remained very solid. Loan loss provisions were broadly stable year on year, and cost of risk improved 2 basis points even after absorbing less favorable FX movements.

This reflects the resilience across most of our markets, which more than offset the pressure we are beginning to see from slower-than-expected rate normalization in Brazil, particularly in corporates and SMEs. Our non-performing loan ratio remained low, as the impact from Argentina was broadly offset by the contribution from TSB.

Our NPL portfolio has collateral, guarantees, and provisions that account for almost 90% of its total exposure. Retail and Consumer represents over 90% of the group's loan loss provisions.

In Retail, cost of risk improved, excluding Argentina, with solid performances in key markets such as Spain and Brazil. In Openbank, cost of risk was stable, even with the impact of Argentina, supported by continued strong trends in the US.

CIB was affected by a limited number of single names in Europe and Brazil. As of today, we are not seeing a significant deterioration in employment, and credit quality remains stable.

As long as labor markets remain solid, we would not expect material impacts in credit quality, as resilience across most developed markets is expected to keep offsetting pressures in Brazil and challenges in Argentina, showing the benefits of diversification. Moving on to capital, we delivered another quarter of strong capital generation.

Our CET1 ratio stood at 14% after absorbing the 55 basis point impact from TSB. Excluding this impact, the CET1 ratio increased by 20 basis points, demonstrating once again our ability to generate capital while investing in profitable growth.

We generated 27 basis points of net organic capital in the quarter, driven by disciplined capital allocation to high-return opportunities, with a new business RoTE of around 21%, and by a strong contribution from our risk transfer initiatives, which offset 31 basis points of risk-weighted asset growth. This strong capital generation keeps us on track to end the year in line with our 12.8% target, after absorbing the impact from Webster in the second half of the year and further regulatory impacts during the rest of this year, leaving us close to the upper end of our 12% to 13% CET1 operating range.

Héctor, back to you.

Héctor Grisi

Thanks, José. In conclusion, this has been our strongest first half ever, putting us in an excellent position to deliver our '26 targets, with our performance running slightly ahead of plan.

Our businesses continue to show solid momentum, with ONE Transformation improving both revenue and cost, driving strong operational leverage. As a result, we delivered record underlying profit, a robust capital position, and double-digit value creation.

Even excluding TSB, we are generating more underlying profit than last year, when Poland was still part of the group. In summary, our results remain consistent and predictable, with very positive trends that we expect to continue in the second half of the year.

On the back of this strong first half, we remain confident in our delivery of sustainable growth and creating value for our shareholders. Our financial North Star is clear: to deliver an RoTE above 20% by 2028.

This is about execution with precision, disciplined capital allocation, ONE Transformation, and scaling our global businesses to accelerate value creation. That is exactly what we are consistently delivering.

Now, we are happy to take your questions.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much, Héctor. Let's begin the Q&A session.

Operator, could we have the first question, please?

Operator

The first question comes from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Now your line is open.

Francisco Riquel

Yes. Thank you for taking my questions.

I want to start with Spain, particularly NII. If you can update on your guidance for the year, the low-to-mid single-digit growth because first half has been above expectations.

Particularly also comment on two points here, which is loan growth, which I see is up 8%, but Retail is just 0.6%, strong CIB this Q2, how sustainable into the second half. Also on the ALCO bond portfolio is up almost €20 billion in the first half of the year.

You can update on your ALCO strategy, size and duration. My second question on Spain is if you can comment on the early retirement plan just agreed with the trade unions, and if you can update on your cost-to-income target for Spain once this plan is fully implemented.

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Hello, Francisco. Héctor, good morning.

Thank you for your question. In Spain NII, as you have seen, the first-half profit is up 12% year on year.

It's mainly driven by 4% revenue growth with an increase in active customers. It's very important that you see that we're growing 200,000 customers per quarter on a net basis, okay?

It's very important to acknowledge the benefits of ONE Transformation. Cost is down 3%, okay, and efficiency ratio improved 240 basis points year on year to 33.6%.

What you're seeing is exactly the operating leverage that we promised on ONE Transformation, which is more revenues and less cost. That is what's helping us quite a lot.

Trading gains down €132 million year on year from the lower activity in markets in CIB after a record first half in '25. The quarterly drop is driven by a one-off from stake valuation in Q1.

LLPs fell by 1% with strong asset quality and the portfolio sales in Retail offsetting single names in CIB. Other results were around €33 million worse driven by transformation cost, okay?

On the ALCO, José will tell you. Let me talk a little bit about the loan growth.

What we're concentrating in here is always profitability, okay? Where we see the margins and an opportunity, we see it on a weekly basis.

It's a very dynamic process, and what we're doing is managing capital in such a way. Where we see opportunities, we deploy capital.

That's actually what we're doing, and how you see the portfolio growing. We started, for example, in the first half of the year growing in mortgages in a really strong way because we saw an opportunity when the rates basically help us out in that sense.

With that, I will give it to José to explain you about the ALCO as well. Good

José García Cantera

morning, Paco. Let me take the question into two different parts.

The client business, obviously, rates went up slightly in the quarter, and we have positive sensitivity to rates, which obviously helped, particularly with a very good management of the client base. We are adding around 5% of new clients on an annualized basis, and many of these are transactional.

When you look at the cost of deposits, because we are growing transactional accounts, has performed very, very well. The first component of the very good performance in NII is the consequence of our commercial strategy.

Second, the ALCO portfolio, we have €60 billion of ALCO at average yield of 3.3%, six-year duration. This is slightly more than we had anticipated because, as I said, we are growing in current accounts more than planned, because of the success of our commercial strategy, and because we want to keep the interest rate sensitivity stable around €500 million per 100 basis points, we increased the ALCO portfolio to this €60 billion.

We plan to keep it at this level. We don't plan to increase the ALCO portfolio above this level.

Right now, the interest rate sensitivity is below €500 million. It's €450 million, more or less.

We want to keep it at this point. The third point is the other hedging strategies that we commented in the past are doing very well.

Pre-fixing, the repricing of mortgages, all of this is also contributing very well. The first-half NII was up 7.7%, and we see these trends continuing to the second half.

We see no reason to see a different trend in the second half relative to the first half.

Raúl Sinha

Great. Thanks very much, Paco.

Next question, please.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to remind you that if you want to ask a question, press star five on your telephone. The next question comes from Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas.

Now your line is open.

Ignacio Ulargui

Thanks very much for the presentation. Good morning, everyone.

I just have two questions, if I may. The first one is on the activity levels.

We have seen a very strong NII and fees, and you have highlighted during the presentation the strong activity across the board in Retail, CIB, most of the units. I just wanted to see how do you see that activity going forward, especially in terms of lending and deposit growth?

Was quite curious to see a strong Retail and deposit growth in the quarter. If you could elaborate a bit more on the strategy in terms of gathering deposits, I think that would be very helpful.

The second question is on cost of risk evolution. For the first half, you have had a stable 115 bps, which is slightly above the initial target that you gave for the plan of 100 to 110 bps.

You flagged in 1Q results, and reiterated now, that Argentina has been a big driver of that increase in cost of risk. How should we think about that in the second half?

Should we expect a normalization? If you could give a bit of color on how should we think about the cost of risk in Brazil in the light of the comments that you made, José, about SMEs and corporates being a bit more stressed given the level of rates?

Also, if you could elaborate a bit on the US performance, which has been very strong in the quarter in cost of risk? Thank you.

Okay.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Ignacio. Very big questions, eh?

Okay. Let me give you to you.

The activity levels, we are on track to delivering. I think it's important to say, as José said in his presentation, that ONE Transformation is a key profit generator and is exactly what we are delivering, okay?

We're exceeding I would say that we have strong momentum within our business and we are on track to exceed some of our targets set up for the year. NII outlook is looking better for the Retail and Commercial businesses in Europe, as well as for Openbank.

We continue to expect fees to grow faster than NII. This is ONE Transformation, at a mid-to-high single digits, excluding the M&A.

Also, I would say that on asset quality, we continue to expect a broadly stable outlook with a cost of risk around 115, all right? The acquisition of TSB and Webster will improve the cost of risk towards, I would say, 1 to 1.1 range over the '27, '28.

In the second half, we expect some improvement in the cost of risk in Argentina. The hardest was the first quarter, if you remember.

It came down a little bit on the second one, but it's still hitting us. We have under control the portfolio.

We stopped lending in Argentina. Actually, we are much better than our peers there.

We're going to see that the cost of risk in Argentina is being offset by the usual seasonality of the US in auto. That basically tells you how strong is the diversification in the group, helping us out in some places when some places get hurt by some things.

All in all, I expect in '26 PBT to continue to improve in the H2 over H1. We expect an effective tax rate for the year around 27% and at the lower end of our usual 27% to 28% range.

As I said, we're on track to exceed or above €14.1 billion net profit, ex-M&A guidance for the year, all right? In terms of where we see cost of risk evolution, I already explained you what do we see there.

In particular in Brazil, I think it's important to say the following. In Brazil, what we have seen is a dynamic of the single names that I explained to you.

It's important to say that nonetheless, we see that the worst is over, I mean in my point of view. Why do I see that?

Because we have been taking really good decisions in terms of how the mix of the portfolio is going. If you take a look at, for example, our CIB portfolio and the Commercial portfolio, both of them are 30% in dollars and 40% in dollars, respectively.

What that basically tells you is that we're going much more to the exporters, trade finance, and those kinds of things. That's why you see margins diminish a little bit in the whole overall portfolio.

On the individual side, we're basically going much more to the affluent segment and concentrated in auto loans. Margins constrict a little bit, but the cost of risk, you control it a little bit more.

I don't see cost of risk basically getting worse than the 4.2% that we expect for the whole year. I see that is where Brazil's going.

Then you ask me a little bit about the US, correct? US is a great example of the ONE Transformation benefits.

H1, the profit is up 26% year on year at $989 million. Efficiency is improved 4 percentage points to 45.8%.

RoTE is 2 percentage points to 13.2%, all right? Q2 total revenue is up around 9% year on year.

Q2 '26 fees are up 22% year on year. It's this is CIB and Wealth helping us out in here.

Q2 Q2 '26 NII is up 4%. This is driven mainly by CIB and the funding optimization in Openbank.

If you remember, Openbank now, and I explained that last quarter, a whole the whole of our funding is not anymore wholesale. It's funded by the deposits in SBNA and Openbank.

Actually, that is helping us quite a lot. In terms of cost, cost of risk is 12 months, 10 10 basis points quarter on quarter to 1.47%.

Remember that in auto, we always have seasonality. Second sorry, third and fourth quarter will be higher on those.

We see that the labor markets are quite strong in the US, it has, I mean we have a good out- outlook on those. That's basically it.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks, Héctor. I think we left out in terms of the first question on early retirements.

Just going back to Paco Riquel's question. Apologies, Paco.

Héctor, would you mind addressing that?

Héctor Grisi

Yes. Yesterday, we signed the agreement with the unions.

I think it was a pretty good result. This is going to help us out to do what is needed to be done towards the end of the year.

I think this will help us in delivering exactly the ONE Transformation that we told you about, and that's going to help us managing much better what we're doing in Spain all the way.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much, Héctor. The costs of that are already in the other results line within restructuring.

Could we have the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Now your line is open.

Alvaro Serrano

Great. Good morning.

Thanks for taking my questions. Kind of a follow-up on Brazil, and another one on capital.

On Brazil, I take note of your comments around cost of risk, Héctor, but in what was a pretty good results for the group and regionally, Brazil, in terms of revenues, wasn't great either. The question is, sort of how much of that sort of the weaker fees and trading you think is due to sort of company-specific, i.e.

potentially disruptions from implementation of Gravity, or do you think it's purely macro? More importantly, what to expect on the revenue front over the next few quarters?

If as we think about Brazil, can Gravity offset those revenue sort of headwinds as we look forward? The second question is on capital.

You've had another good capital print this quarter. I can't help but to see that the model updates are now turning to tailwinds second quarter in a row.

From memory, I think you, José, you've given us a guidance for the full year of 20 basis points headwinds, which I suspect means updating. I don't know if you can give us any color on that.

Should we expect any regulatory headwinds from now on given the changes from ECB policy? Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Alvaro. Overall Brazil, I believe that given current macro scenario, I think we have had a really good performance.

As you can see, ONE Transformation is delivering, and I believe there's still more to come, okay? The macro environment, you know it quite well, no?

The economy is experiencing a soft landing. Growth is expected to remain resilient in '26, we believe, and several discussions on sustainability of growth after the October elections, with our best case is that Mr.

Lula repeats. Activity continues to surprise on the upside.

It's very supported, as you have seen, by strong fiscal stimulus, the resilient household consumption, favorable exports, and still very tight labor market, as you have seen. Although credit is increasingly reflecting restricted monetary policy, the central bank has started a really gradual easing cycle, but tighter external financial conditions and sticky inflation expectations are limiting the room for significant cuts, as you have seen.

The curve is basically flat at the levels that it is today. Our business in Brazil, it's important to say, represents 9% of the group loans, and remains very resilient.

Diversification is working. Higher rates and inflation in Brazil are offset by strong performance in Europe and other businesses.

It's very important, again, the model of the group, diversification. NII increased by around 2% year on year.

It's basically mainly driven by Openbank and CIB, as I explained what we're doing with the mix of the portfolio. We are really focused on profitable products, profitable segments, and we need to lower the pressure from the ALM portfolio.

We expect a similar run rate for the second half. Cost, it's very important to take a look at this is ONE Transformation, cost is increased by 3%, below the rate of inflation.

It's higher, as you were saying, because of the higher IT costs related to ONE Transformation and the Gravity migration, and as well a little bit of Trabalhistas. Remember that Trabalhistas, we send them to the cost, now we have it in there.

The cost-to-income ratio because of that is at 40.5% in the half, and we continue to focus on improving the principality, it's very important, and transactionality as part of ONE Transformation to lower the deposit cost, and this is helping us out. Nonetheless, the margin is less because of what I was explaining about how we managing the mix on the portfolio.

This is very important to take into account, all right? Provisions increased 3% year on year on the quarter.

This is basically the single names and provisions from Openbank because Openbank, since we're increasing auto loans, is actually giving us a little bit more of provisions. Nonetheless, the cost of risk remains stable at around 4.14%, and it may remain stable at no more than 4.2% for the rest of the year.

It's important to acknowledge the scenario that we have in Brazil. Interest rates curves have shifted higher for longer, and we continue to believe that the business in Brazil can improve its returns in the next two years to around 20%, driven by the execution of ONE Transformation.

Our new CEO came in the 6th of July. We have very good outlooks, and I think we'll do the right changes in order to make the business much more into ONE Transformation and concentrate on that.

On the capital, José? Good

José García Cantera

morning, Alvaro. The positive impact of what we call supervisory regulatory charges in the first quarter had more to do with the implementation of CRR as we updated some of our models.

It was not really related to direct supervisory actions. We still think that we will have around 15 to 20 basis points charge, negative impact, from supervisory actions in the second half of the year.

If you look at our capacity to generate capital, and as we are improving profitability, we think that from the 12.5% post-Webster roughly that we are at the moment, 14% minus 150 basis points for Webster roughly is 12.50, we think we should be in line or above our target of 12.8% by the end of the year. Yes, we would still expect some negative impact in the second half of the year.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Operator, could we have the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Cecilia Romero from Barclays. Now your line is open.

Cecilia Romero

Thank you very much, José and Héctor, for taking my questions. My first one is on rates.

Since Investor Day, we've seen rate expectations have generally moved higher across your core markets. Despite the potential headwind in Brazil, do you see the overall change as a net tailwind to the group's low-to-mid single-digit NII CAGR target for the 2025 to 2028 period?

If so, could you give us some guidance of where within that range you now expect NII growth to land? Then my second question is on Mexico outlook.

Mexico macro and policy backdrop has become more uncertain, particularly following the moves towards the annual USMCA reviews. Do you see risks to your Mexico growth expectations as a result of prolonged trade uncertainty affecting investment decisions?

More recently, also Nubank has received approval to operate as a bank in Mexico. How do you expect that to affect the competitive environment, and do you see any implications for pricing, deposit gathering, or customer acquisition across the sector?

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Cecilia. I would tell you that in terms of the guidance, I already explained a little bit the dynamics of the NII, how do we see the second half.

I think that we're still in line to deliver what we said on the Investor Day in terms of the NII for 20 until '28. I think that the group is very strong, also executing ONE Transformation, as I said.

I think we're in line, or slightly better, given the dynamics that we have seen. Still a long way to go, but I think that the group is basically doing what needs to be done to deliver on what we have said.

All in all, I think that I'm positive on everything. In terms of the Mexico competitive environment and everything that you have said, let me give you a little bit of an overview of what I believe in Mexico trends are going to be.

The negotiations are going to start in the following two weeks. I do see that they're going to be hard negotiations, but the treaty has a particular clause in which basically says that if there comes not an agreement between the three parties, the treaty will renew itself automatically for one more year, and on and on until 10 years, okay?

I'm not so worried about that because I do believe that if they don't come to an agreement, they will basically repeat it one more time. My view is that Mexico needs the US as much as the US needs Mexico, and also with inflation control, etc., they need the manufacturing capabilities and the low labor costs for Mexico.

I do believe they will come to an agreement. Also, it's important to acknowledge that Mr.

Trump uses all these things as a negotiation weapon basically to submit the countries to whatever he wants, but I do believe that Mexico understands very well where it stands. I was in Mexico a couple of weeks ago.

The dynamics are good. Consumption is picking up, I see a better outlook for the second half of the year.

Nonetheless, it's important to acknowledge that this is going to play out in some sort of way. On the other side, the competitive environment, as we don't discuss competitors, but I see that the competitor environment is under control, and in what sense?

That I do believe that even though cost of risk went a little bit up in some of our peers, we have maintained the discipline to play on the portfolios that we believe are the right ones. We continue to see that there is a lot to do and a lot of profitable things to do in Mexico.

We are deploying a little bit more capital to CIB and to the mid-sized corporates and SMEs because we believe it's the right play to do. Rates are basically at a very competitive level in Mexico, and exchange rate has sustained the drop that the Banco de México has done in terms of rates.

I do believe that the market is under control. What we have decreased a little bit is our participation in credit cards and personal loans, which we believe could basically not be as profitable some of the others because of the cost of risk.

We've been cautious on those, but we've been increasing in terms of lending in auto and mortgages, which are much more secure, and also a little bit on payrolls, all right? That's the dynamics.

I'm positive in Mexico. I think it's going to be second half that is going to be hard because of that, but nonetheless, I do believe we're going to be able to deliver our numbers and deliver the year in quite good for the next two years.

On the competitive environment, what I would say is that it's good that some of our competitors are becoming banks. That makes the level playing field the same for everyone.

I see a lot of competition for deposits, but the prices that have been paid for time deposits are pretty big, but there are no substantial movements of clients towards those higher-yielding deposits given some past situations in the market. All in all, our deposit growth has been really good.

If you see the funding cost of our Mexico franchise is becoming much more competitive, and this is because ONE Transformation, again, I'm sorry to take so long to answer your question, is concentrating on transactional deposits. This is exactly what we're doing, becoming number one bank to our customers.

That's why, if you see, margins are basically becoming much better in Mexico, as José explained before. Thank you.

José García Cantera

Let me add some color on net interest margin. The group's net interest margin in the second quarter is the highest of the last 12 months.

Obviously, we have structurally a positive sensitivity to rates, basically driven by the positive sensitivity in Spain, and now with TSB in the UK. We have a negative sensitivity in Brazil, but rates in Brazil are stable or high.

This level of net interest margin is first explained by the levels of activity, which, again, are doing very, very well, and we would expect that volumes are sustained as the activity with these clients remain, but obviously the way we're structuring the balance sheet management, again with an overall positive sensitivity to rates, means that the net interest margin that we are seeing in the second quarter is explained by that. Looking ahead, looking into next three years, it's very difficult, but obviously the first year of the next three years, it's better, and clearly the outlook for net interest margin for the rest of the year, as I said for Spain net interest income, I see no reasons that these trends should change in the second half of this year.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Operator, could we have the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Ignacio Cerezo from UBS. Now your line is open.

Ignacio Cerezo

Hi. Good morning.

Quick couple of questions actually. First one is if you can give us a bit of an overview or some opinions basically on when do you see the headcount numbers on a group basis are going to start falling down.

You're cutting costs actually in many geographies already, but the headcount numbers, I think they're stable quarter on quarter. They're still down year on year actually, but a little bit of information on how that metric basically can be evolving in the future.

The second one is on Webster. If you can give us an update basically on when do you think the closure of the deal is going to happen?

Again, we've obviously heard risks about the possibility of delays or even, in extreme case, actually cancellation of the deal because of political interference. If you can give us your view basically about that.

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Ignacio. In terms of headcount numbers, what we're doing is, first of all, executing ONE Transformation.

We're going through simplification, automation, and you'll see that numbers are going to start being better on and on. The last number I have seen on the group, I think is 180,000

Ignacio Cerezo

down from Ignacio, obviously, the TSB is incorporated in the second quarter,

José García Cantera

okay? See, even with TSB, if we look at December '25 to June '26, headcount is down over 2,000 people.

If we obviously take TSB into account, headcount is down 3% or 4%. The headcount reduction is the consequence of implementing ONE Transformation.

As we've discussed in the past, this is a long-term trend that should continue going forward. The focus is not the headcount reduction per se.

The headcount reduction is obviously the consequence of implementing ONE Transformation.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, José. In terms of Webster, what I would tell you is that yesterday we got the authorization by the ECB to continue with the transaction.

We have a very constructive engagement with all the supervisors and the approvals needed to close the transaction. During the quarter, also, as you all know, we received the OCC approval, and we have just received, as I said, the ECB approval.

The process is proceeding fully in line with our expectation and to close on the second half of the year, as we have said. No news on that, Ignacio.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Operator, could we have the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Now your line is open.

Andrea Filtri

Yes, thank you for taking my question. The first is on capital.

It looks like it's trending ahead of targets, and we're seeing signs from Brussels of potential easing of regulation. The first question for you is do you feel like you will have a capital reserve soon?

Where are you on the Danish compromise approval? I seem to recall that you were expecting approval by June 2026.

The second question is on your other provisions. They've been higher than expected.

I wondered if these are reflecting restructuring charges to accelerate ONE Transformation. If it is so, can you quantify how much sooner you could hit your cost targets or if you could even go beyond your objectives?

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Andrea. On capital, José will answer you in detail.

In terms of the Danish compromise, yes, as you have said, we're expecting it in the next couple of months or so. I think that everything has been done, all the requirements have been completed, and everything that is needed, and it's been submitted to the ECB.

We're just expecting sooner rather than later, okay? What you have seen is exactly what you're saying in terms of ONE Transformation, and it's actually what the execution is generating.

What we are very concentrated on right now is on the simplification part. This is still a long way to go.

If you look at the amount of products in the catalog, we started three and a half years ago with 10,000, we went down almost to 4,000. We're still have a lot of things to do, a lot of automation needs to be done in some of the banks, eliminating the legacy, there's a lot of applications that we need to eliminate.

It's not an easy job. It's a lot of housekeeping, and it's going to take us long time.

Nonetheless, you'll see this evolution coming in every single quarter, okay? You will continue looking at this for the next until '28.

I believe this is a dynamic process. It's never going to end, all, because we always can get better.

This is exactly what we're doing. What I can tell you is that now it's within the culture of the whole organization.

Everybody is on track of delivering those, but simplification is of the essence in order to be able to be very competitive in the future. What I see is that yes, we're going to get to the cost targets.

We maybe slide a little bit, let's see, but because some of these situations, you get high inflation in some of the countries, etc. I don't want to overpromise.

I want to tell you that we will deliver exactly as we have said for '28. That would be my best guess, but it's slightly positive, I would say.

On capital,

José García Cantera

José? The Danish compromise, we expected the approval in August as Héctor said, it should come anytime now.

Reality is that there is much talk about easing capital requirements directly or indirectly for banks in Europe. Reality is that there is nothing concrete on that.

In fact, on a daily basis, what we see is no change in the supervisory actions of the ECB. I think it's premature to assume that all these, like you said, rumors or comments or talk will end up having a significant impact on capital for European banks.

Far, we are not seeing it at all.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Operator, could we take the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank. Now your line is open.

Carlos Peixoto

Hi. Good morning.

Two questions from my side and actually two clarifications as well. The first one would be if you could provide some additional color on the single-name provisions that you mentioned related with CIB in Europe and in Brazil.

Basically, how much did that impact the group's cost of risk in the first half or in the second quarter, as you prefer? Then the second question would be actually on NII in Portugal.

We see NII falling year on year whereas loans were actually growing by 8%. I was wondering if you could give us some color on the dynamics behind the NII there.

Then just a couple of clarifications, if I may. When you mentioned that in NII in Spain in the second half should have similar trends to the first half, you're basically hinting that second half should be similar to first half in euros, or that the 11% pace of growth that we're seeing right now should be kept?

Then finally on the early retirements, what are they in other provisions or in other operating costs, and they are accounted in which unit, corporate center or in Spain? Thank you very much for this.

José García Cantera

Okay. I'm going to answer you quickly, Carlos, on terms of the early retirements will be in Spain, and it's basically on line with the budget that we have presented.

It's within the numbers that you have on the guidance for the year, no changes on that. Let me tell you a little bit on the single names and what's going on in the credit quality.

First of all, 12 months cost of risk in Q2 '26 closed at 115, all right? It's as I said, it's the higher provisions in Argentina and the single names in CIB.

Excluding Argentina, actually, asset quality improved 2 basis points to 1.07%, all right? There is no underlying deterioration of the portfolios.

Our plan assumes average GDP growth of around 1% to 2% across the footprint of the bank. We see resilient labor markets, eurozone rates at 2.25%, UK and US rates at 3.5%, and Brazil rates falling 10% by the end of '28.

If that's the case, and high rates in Brazil could basically drive a little bit higher provisions, but we believe they're going to be manageable within the plan that we have. Cost of risk is expected to remain around 115.

In H2, the better cost of risk in Argentina that is already, as I said, coming better in the second quarter, and it would continue on and on, and some benefit we're going to have from the acquisition of TSB and Webster that is offset by the usual seasonality that we have in the US. Remember that in the US, always Q3 and Q4, we have a little bit more provisions.

Let's see how the labor markets work in the US. Other than that, I see that this is going to help.

So '26-'28 average cost of risk, we see it at 1 to 1.1, and this is because the mix changes now that we have TSB and Webster on the portfolio. The target range offers flexibility for potential macro deterioration, nothing out of order in that sense.

José? NII in Portugal.

This is basically due to business mix change and pricing of mortgages as we look at profitability and having profitable mortgages through the life cycle. If you look at net interest margin, the cost of deposits actually is 22 basis points lower this year than than last year.

Again, as I said for Spain, we are adding new customers, and these new customers have mostly transactional relationships with us, and this is helping in the managing of cost of deposits. On the asset side, we see we saw higher yields on consumer loans, 40 basis points, on credit cards, 90 basis points, but lower yields on mortgages, around 60 basis points, again because of the focus on the quality, the overall profitability of the relationship through the cycle.

I would say this is, it's a slight decrease, it's not that significant, and it's basically the consequence of of a business mix decision on the asset side, but again with a very, very, very good performance on the liability side based on new numbers of transactional clients. Spain.

What What I meant is that the the the components of NII that we saw in the first quarter in the first half should remain in the second half. So €60 billion of ALCO portfolio at 3.3%, volumes that are doing that are positive, good management of liabilities, and a slight positive impact from repricing of mortgages as the the Euribor, the the 12-month Euribor, went up towards, in in the second quarter, and we have a two-month to three-month lag in repricing of mortgages.

What I mean is that all these conditions that we saw in the first half should remain in the second half.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Operator, could we get the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Benjamin Toms from RBC. Now your line is open.

Morning.

Benjamin Toms

Thank you both for taking my questions. Two on the UK, please.

In the last quarter, you mentioned intense competition in UK deposits. Are you still seeing that elevated competition in this geography, and do you expect that to subside into half two?

Secondly, now that the TSB integration is complete, could you talk a little bit more about the cost savings expected by 2028? Now you've had a year to look at the asset, do you see any potential upside to your existing UK cost-saving guidance?

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you. Benjamin, in terms of the UK, yes, we see that the market has become very, very competitive, okay?

We see a lot of competition, mainly mortgages, where we have the lion's share of our portfolio, we see the compression of margins, and we have seen so, and also a really strong competitive in deposits, okay? That's what the market is doing.

I believe that we have been managing pretty well. I think that our team and the execution of ONE Transformation is helping us quite a lot because it's helping us out to reduce the amount of cost that we had in the unit.

On the other side, it's helping us out by increasing revenue because we're doing things in a much better way, because we are having much more principality with the customers, concentrated on transactional deposits that lower our cost base. Also, as you have seen, we're pushing for the 1|2|3 account, which is helping us out to get market share.

Then, we see that TSB is a great addition to what we're doing. TSB gave us 4 million customers more.

We have just finished the submission of the part seven on last week on Thursday. With that, we enter into the full process.

We do believe that the cost saving that we promised, about €400 million, are in line of what we're going to be able to deliver. I think it's too soon to say if we're going to be above that, given that we need to see the exercise of the part seven and how does that basically comes out.

We're confident that we will deliver on the numbers and could be slightly better. I don't want again to overpromise on that given the part seven and how the evolution of that can be.

All in all, we already have €250 million in non-recurring items included of the restructuring of TSB in the numbers that you have seen today. José?

Probably to help forecast NII in the UK, is worth updating the structural hedge, because post-TSB, this has changed. In December, we had £103 billion of structural hedge.

In June, the amount was £118 billion. Duration was 2.3 last year, is currently 2.6, and the yield was 3% and is 3.2%.

We have now an structural hedge with a slightly longer duration and higher yields. This obviously is important for forecasting NII.

Also, let me just complement what Héctor said. Post-TSB, we have 27 million customers in the UK, 16 million active customers in the UK.

This obviously it's a very, very good sort of client base to work with going forward. As Héctor said, we remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK, and the fact that TSB plus Santander is a great value proposition going forward.

Raúl Sinha

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator, could we have the next question, please? The

Operator

next question comes from Borja Ramirez from Citi. Now your line is open.

Borja Ramirez

Hello. Good morning.

Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two questions, please.

Firstly, on deposits, I can see that Santander now has a critical mass across its core markets with a market share of at least 10 10%. I can see that the stable retail deposits for the group are growing at a faster pace than peers.

Linked to this, Openbank has become a relevant funding platform for the group. I would like to ask, given this structural improvements in the funding franchise, do you think the consensus already fully appreciates the benefit from the lower funding costs?

Linked to this, in which regions do you see the biggest opportunities to improve the funding costs from here? Then my second question would be briefly on capital, on SRTs, if you could kindly remind me on the capital benefit in Q2 and also what should we expect for the second half of the year, please?

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Borja. Okay.

This, exactly, of the deposit and what happened to the franchise is the result of ONE Transformation. One of the most important premises of ONE Transformation is becoming the number one bank to our customers, that basically results in having, as José's been saying all along during his answering of the questions, is that we are increasing transactional deposits, okay?

When you become number one bank to your customer, you get the transactional deposits because people do everything with you: they pay their bills, they debit the utilities, they pay their school children, etc. Everything out for you from your account.

That basically helps us out in having much more transactional and lower cost deposits, and that's exactly what we will continue to do and concentrate on, all right? Openbank is also helping us out in that.

As helping as Openbank, we use all the deposits to fund the the consumer business, the auto business in Open and and it's helping us out also to use a lot less of wholesale expensive funding and decrease and increase the margins and help us us in the NII. They will continue to do so as we continue to increase the principality of our customers.

That's exactly the idea. What regions do I see a lot of benefits?

Look, I mean Mexico, Brazil, every single country will benefit from it. The UK is going to be very important as well, and the both acquisitions that we have done, both Webster and TSB, bring a lot of deposits to the table, which is key to our franchises in those countries, and it's key to our franchises to make them much more profitable and much more competitive against our peers.

All in all, that's the strategy, it's part of ONE Transformation, and it's exactly what we're executing right now. In terms of capital, José,

José García Cantera

thank you. Let me explain the dynamics of risk-weighted assets in the quarter, because in the quarter, you saw an increase in risk-weighted assets of around €16 billion, €13.1 billion come from TSB.

Net of TSB, the increase in risk-weighted assets was relatively muted, compared to a very healthy loan growth. We continue to mobilize assets.

The total mobilization in the quarter was €13.4 billion, of which a quarter was cash securitizations, a quarter was synthetic securitizations, securitizations amounted to exactly 50% of the total, 37% was asset sales, mostly non-performing assets, and 13% was guarantees and other actions. In the second half of the year, we would expect a similar amount to the first half.

One thing that we achieved this year, compared to other years, was to mobilize assets in a more linear way. When you look at first quarter, second quarter, very much similar.

I would say I would expect similar amounts each quarter in the next couple of quarters, probably a bit more in the fourth quarter because of lower activity in the third, but in the second half, a similar amount to the first half.

Raúl Sinha

Thank you very much. Operator, could we have the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Miruna Chirea from Jefferies. Now your line is open.

Miruna Chirea

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions.

I have two, one on Mexico and then a clarification on Brazil, please. On Mexico, your loans are growing at around 8% year on year in June.

This is a slight deceleration versus the March level, but still very healthy overall. I was wondering how are you thinking about lending growth in Mexico for the full year?

Do you think that the second half should see a deceleration from here, or should we expect sort of the same level as now? Then in Brazil, could you remind us what are your rate expectations for the end of year Selic now for '26, '27, '28?

In the light of this, how should we be thinking about your medium-term target of a 20% return on tangible equity in the country? Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Okay. Thank you, Miruna.

Mexico, yes, what we do is we're very disciplined in the way we deploy capital, okay? We see how the market is reacting.

Also, we see the cost of risk in the different portfolios and how do we manage them. When we see that margins tighten or there is a part of a segment that we don't like, we actually don't come in and we don't deploy the capital.

We're very disciplined in such a way. I do believe Mexico is an opportunity, and you're going to see us investing capital in some of the segments of the market.

As I said previously, I see great opportunity in mid-sized corporates and SMEs. I think that we will be deploying capital on those segments.

Also, if we see that the labor market continues to be strong, we might do a little bit of growth in the credit cards and personal loans, and we will continue to do so, but very cautiously on those, because open market is not what we like. We normally do that with our own customers, and we're growing the customer base, we see how they react, and then we give them credit.

That's why I see Mexico, but yes, definitely we're going to grow the loan portfolio there on some pace.

José García Cantera

In terms of rate expectations, what it's clear that rates in Brazil are normalizing at a slower pace than anticipated. We we'd still expect some rate cuts this year, not significant, but this should accelerate in the next couple of years, for the simple reason that currently real rates in Brazil are 10%.

Obviously, we have uncertainty around the elections and the increase in public spending ahead of the elections, but this scenario should normalize in 2027, 2028, we would expect rates to go down. We are very much in line with market expectations for a, maybe 13.5%, 14% rate for the end of this year, and then gradually 100 to 150 basis points cut in the next couple of years.

With that, we should be able to get to a 20% return on equity in in in in 2028. There's no no question.

Remember that we have been decreasing the interest rate sensitivity. If you look at I think this is interesting to discuss, because if you look at net interest margin evolution in Brazil, net interest income is actually up in a quarter where interest rates actually hurt our deposit cost quite significantly.

Cost of deposits in the second half in the first half of this year, compared to the first half of this year of last year, is 87 basis points higher because of interest rates. Despite that pressure, we were able to print a positive NII.

This is the consequence of the business change mix that business mix change that Héctor actually reflected upon before. We have a much better asset side, obviously less sensitive to rates and lower asset quality sensitivity as well.

We are definitely confident that the current 15% return on tangible equity in the country can improve to 20% in the couple in the next couple of years. Some of of the tailwind will be rates, but not only.

It's all the structural changes that we are undertaking in Brazil that will basically explain this improvement in profitability.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Could we have the next question, please, Operator?

Operator

The next question comes from Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research. Now your line is open.

Britta Schmidt

Morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

I've got two and one clarification. On the Spanish net interest income, it seems that about half of that growth is coming from CIB, if I'm not mistaken.

Maybe you can give a bit of color towards driving that and how sustainable that is. Also, just clarify, is it now likely that you're growing more than low-to-mid single digit in terms of NII in Spain this year?

The second one is on CIB. The trading result was weak this quarter, obviously coming from a high level in Q1, but still trending below previous quarters.

Can you give us some color as towards driving that and whether you expect that to run at a higher run rate for the remainder of the year? Then just on TSB, a clarification with regards to the restructuring costs, could you let us know the timing and the size of the remaining charges you intend to take this year?

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Britta. Let me start by by going into the TSB.

I'm going to go start the other way around. In terms of transformation charges, okay, you're going to see that in other results, you have €281 million of transformation charges.

That's actually for the whole group, okay? Then, on the line of non-recurring items, you have €250 million from what we have done so far in TSB, okay?

What we expect is another €250 million in the following quarters. We will try to do as much as we can, the sooner the better, okay?

That's the idea of what we're trying to achieve there. Then on synergies, as I said, I mean the number that we have told you is around €400 million, and I already explained exactly the dynamics and how do we see that.

We need to do the part seven, etc. We're on the right track of basically doing that.

In terms of the CIB, you see the trading income, you see year-on-year decline mainly explained by the FX hedge, okay, which was a headwind this year, and it was a tailwind last year. We say the weaker trading activity quarter on quarter in CIB seasonality.

We have lower volatility in global markets and the business mix. As we are not, a player in equity, is much more related to fixed income, and that's basically the the the way it is.

What we have seen is a lot of our trading and a lot of what we do, Britta, is depends on client flows, okay? If we see a lot of client activity depends on volatility of what's going on in the markets, we would see that basically that would could help us in the future.

That would depend if we continue basically growing our relationship with the customers and having much more principality is going to help us out. On the long term, that's going to give us give us some some some help on the on how do we see it.

In terms of the Spain, I see it sustainable. Yes, it is.

I think we have done a pretty good job in terms of what we're doing. It's also going to depend on what's market and the activity that we have there, but nonetheless, we have a pretty good backlog of transactions, and I see that it could help us quite a lot.

This is also the beauty of ONE Transformation and the network benefits we're doing, because it's very important to understand that CIB is not just the CIB business and with the big corporates. CIB is a factory for the rest of the bank.

Why What do I mean by that? Is a lot of CIB product is sold to mid-sized corporates in the Commercial business and to SMEs.

Trade finance, for example, is quite a lot, and you see the results that we're doing. For example, I explained to you that the portfolio in Brazil in Commercial is now almost 30% to 40% in dollars related to trade finance and what we're doing with ECB financing and a lot of export-related transactions.

It's exactly what the way that we use CIB. The network benefits that we're getting around it and how the franchise is working together in order to get more business out of that.

You're going to see CIB growing a lot more in the next few years and few quarters by doing that exactly. It's going to give us a lot of new things, I mean with the Webster, for example, coming in, a lot of commercial business that is going to also be in follow up by what we do in CIB.

I really see that and I'm sorry that I went all the way, because it is important for you to understand what we're doing in the franchise, which is exactly the result of what we're having in Spain. Remember that Spain is also the hub for all CIB Europe, okay?

You have to take that into account. I don't know, José, if you have anything else to say, but

José García Cantera

My only comment would be that to better understand the year-on-year performance at CIB, I think we need to look at gross revenue, gross income, total revenue. If you look at the different lines and the movements between the different lines, I think that might not give you the right way of looking at that, because depending on when the transaction is distributed, how it's accounted, there might be some movements between NII and income from financial transactions.

The best way to look at CIB's performance is to look at total revenue, because you've seen other operating income very, very good performance, financial revenue weak, NII strong. I think this doesn't really give you a picture of what's going on structurally in the business.

If you look at gross revenue, flat year on year, I think that's a better way of looking at how the business is performing.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Could we have the next question, please?

Operator

The next question comes from Sofie Peterzens from Goldman Sachs. Now your line is open.

Sofie Peterzens

Hi. Here is Sofie from Goldman Sachs.

Thanks a lot for taking my question. On net interest income, I see your net interest income in Chile was up slightly more than 25% quarter on quarter.

Could you maybe just discuss what drove that, how sustainable the net interest income in Chile is, and if there are any one-offs that we should be mindful of going forward? Also related to net interest income, your NII in Corporate Centre was much more negative this quarter compared to the previous quarter.

How should we think about the NII trajectory in the Corporate Centre going forward? Then just a final question.

Your leverage ratio continues to trend down. It was 4.8% this quarter.

Does that in any way limit any of the SRT capacity over the next two, three years? I know you gave very helpful guidance on the second-half SRTs, but does that limit SRT capacity in the longer term?

How low leverage ratio would you be happy to run with? Would you be comfortable with a 4% leverage ratio?

Thank you.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Sofie. In Chile, yes, you have to understand that Chile inflation helps us a lot.

If inflation moves in the right way, we always make much more NII, there's no one-offs on the NII in Chile. We foresee that we're going to have a pretty good year all in all, and I think continue to strengthen up for the second half.

Chile is having a good run in the sense that also ONE Transformation is being implemented there. I'm not going to go through the whole thing again, but I could tell you that yes, Chile is strong and for the first time, actually, we are best in class in that market, and we're the best bank in the country in terms of how we're managing it, and we'll continue to do so with ONE Transformation.

Thank you.

José García Cantera

Remember, Sofie, in Chile there are actually three currencies, you have the US dollar, you have the peso, and you have the UF, which is the inflation-linked currency, and you have assets and liabilities linked to inflation. The increase in the quarter and in the year, in the year on year, is explained, as Héctor said, by inflation, is this currency, the performance of the currency, that helped the margin in in in the first half.

The Corporate Center, two reasons why NII was weak. First, we paid for TSB, and obviously there is less cash and less return from that cash, and we had to increase issuances ahead of the Webster acquisition to meet with TLAC/MREL requirements, more or less we will need to issue or we need to eventually cover around €10 billion of senior non-preferred needs for TLAC/MREL requirements for Webster.

That's that's that's the explanation. Oh, securitizations and and going forward.

As long as the market remains as it is, meaning there is strong demand for private credit, I think we should be able to continue mobilizing assets on a recurring basis. As you can see, our new originations, assets that we are coming in new into our books, are increasing, and this is giving us new opportunities to rotate the balance sheet.

Also, markets that were closed a couple of years ago are opening up for to investors, like in Latin America. As long as the market remains what it is, with this strong demand for private credit, I think we can it's it's very difficult to put a number, but €35 billion to €40 billion securitizations as I as I explained before is a very small particular.

Synthetic securitizations is a very small part of what we do to mobilize assets. In the in the second quarter, we actually sold more non-performing loans with impact on capital than we did synthetic securitizations.

Cash securitizations are actual sales, between sales, securitizations of both types, and guarantees, can we keep on doing something like €35 billion, €40 billion a year, at least? The answer is yes.

Raúl Sinha

Thanks very much. Could we have the last question, please, Operator?

Operator

The last question comes from Fernando Gil de Santivañes from Intesa Sanpaolo. Now your line is open.

Fernando Gil de Santivañes

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions.

Two questions, please. The first one on Wealth Management and Insurance, as you grow fees and premiums growing sizably in the quarter, could you please guide us through what regions and segments are driving this growth and what can we expect going forward, please?

The second question is more a follow-up on capital. The regulatory capital impact expected for the rest of the year, this 15 to 20 basis points you mentioned, José, does this reflect the Danish compromise benefit, and if not, can you please disclose and clarify or refresh how big is this impact, please?

Thank you very much.

Héctor Grisi

Thank you, Fernando. Yes, as you have seen, yes, premiums are going up, and that would be the idea.

This is part of what we're doing. That's probably one of the biggest growth opportunity that we have in the group today.

Probably it's going to be the biggest delta in terms of fees for the future, given that ONE Transformation, again, is principality on our accounts, and what we can do much more with our customers is exactly penetrate the huge client base that we have and selling them more products. One of the most important ones is insurance.

That's why you will see premiums basically coming up, and has to be quarter by quarter, given that it's a great opportunity. If you take a look at our markets, we punch below our weight in every single market in insurance below our natural market quota that we have.

In Spain, in Portugal, for example, we have been having tremendous growth, but you also see the same in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, where we have a great opportunity of growing to our natural quota. We will continue to do so.

If we get to our natural quota, insurance will be a very important product for the group all in all in the next few years.

Raúl Sinha

Thank you.

José García Cantera

The Danish compromise will not add any capital to Santander. Obviously, future investments will benefit from the Danish compromise treatment for capital, but no impact from the Danish compromise at all, okay?

There is no impact on what I said in the expectation for capital in the second half. Thank you, Fernando.

Raúl Sinha

Thank you, everybody. Thanks, Héctor.

Thanks, José, for your time. The Investor Relations team is available if you've got any follow-up questions.

This concludes our first-half results call. I wish you all a very good day.