YPF SA Class D

YPF SA Class D

8,040.00
ARS
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291.79EPS
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Oct 29Next Earn

Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to YPF first quarter 2026 earnings presentation.

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press *1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Margarita Chun, Investor Relations Manager.

Margarita, please go ahead.

Margarita Chun

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Margarita Chun, YPF's IR Manager.

Thank you for joining us today in our first quarter 2026 earnings call. Before we begin, please consider our cautionary statement on slide 2.

Our remarks today and answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non-IFRS measures such as adjusted EBITDA.

Today's presentation will be conducted by our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Horacio Marín; our Finance Vice President, Mr.

Pedro Kearney; and our Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President, Mr. Maximiliano Westen.

During the presentation, we will go through the main aspects and events that shaped Q1 results, and finally, we will open the floor for Q&A session together with our management team. I will now turn the call over to Horacio.

Please go ahead.

Horacio Marín

Thank you, Margarita, and good morning, everyone. We are glad to report a robust beginning of the year across our key operational and financial metrics, delivering on our ambition and guidance for the year.

Let me translate the key milestones of the quarter into numbers. Revenues were $4.95 billion, growing 9% quarter-over-quarter, primarily explained by the rising trend of international prices since March, coupled with our policy to align domestic prices of gasoline and diesel with international parities.

On a yearly basis, revenue increased by 7%, reflecting strong local fuel demand and record high refinery processing level. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter amounted to nearly $1.6 billion, representing the highest first quarter level in YPF's history, with an outstanding margin of 32%.

This represents an increase of 24% and 28% on a sequential and interannual basis, materially exceeding revenue expansions. The main factors that explain this growth were higher shale oil production, improved pricing dynamics, and the cost matrix transformation of the upstream segment, now focused on the shale business.

On the production side, our shale oil output reached 205,000 barrels per day. That mark represents an increase of 5% versus last quarter and a remarkable growth of 39% against a year ago, representing 76% of our total oil production.

This milestone positions us on track to achieve our full-year target of approximately 215,000 barrels per day, with a December exit rate of 250,000 barrels per day. In addition, let me highlight several operational efficiencies achieved during the first months of the year.

First, we set a new fracturing record during the first quarter, pumping continuously for almost 110 hours and completing 52 stages in less than 5 days on a pad at Loma Campana field. Moreover, in April, we signed a strategic agreement with the service company Halliburton to incorporate four fracturing sets in Vaca Muerta through a new electrical fracturing technology.

This new contract transforms YPF into the first company outside the US to develop this technology, improving efficiency by reducing the use of diesel engine, saving costs of the operation. In terms of investment, we deployed nearly $1 billion during Q1, with 78% allocated to our unconventional operations.

On a sequential basis, CapEx decreased by 10%, primarily due to increased maintenance activities in the downstream segment during Q4 2025 and a slower pace of investment in upstream facilities. Interannually, the lower investment is explained by the reduced exposure to conventional assets and the impact of one-off item made last year to secure several unconventional concessions.

Consistent with the production expansion expected for the rest of the year, we expect to accelerate capital deployment in the following quarters, reaffirming our guidance of the year in the range of $5.5 to $5.8 billion. Finally, let me point out that a standout result of the quarter was our free cash flow, which reached an outstanding $871 million.

This mark represented an improvement of $1.8 billion against a year ago. This exceptional cash generation was supported by our strong operating performance and the collection of strategic M&A proceeds of around $500 million.

As a result, our net leverage ratio improved to 1.57 times, down from 1.9 times in Q4 '25. Let me recall that in Q3 '25, we reached the peak of 2.1 times, driven by the M&A of buying new Vaca Muerta's assets.

Before moving into the financial detail of the quarter, I would like to address a significant commercial decision announced at the beginning of April regarding our local fuel pricing strategy. Due to a sharp increase in international prices, driven by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, during March, we were able to largely pass through this increase at the pump.

However, in the last week of March, demand began to show signs of contraction for the first time in a while, particularly in gasoline. In response, in April, YPF decided to temporarily postpone further pass-through of international prices increases to customers for a period of 45 days.

This mechanism operates as a buffer, enabling the reduction of the gap between local prices and import parities after this period by recovering the buffer compensation through additional pump price. Importantly, let me clarify that this decision was made proactively with our own initiative by analyzing supply and demand by our commercial real-time intelligence center without any government interference, and was subsequently adapted by all major operators in the industry.

The final objective of this commercial decision was to mitigate potential adverse effect in local demand, while reaffirming our import parity strategy in a free-market environment. It's also worth noting that during April, YPF maintained a very competitive fuel price level.

Moreover, in April, according to our preliminary figures, our midstream and downstream segment reached a very healthy adjusted EBITDA margin of around $24 per barrel. The 45-day period will end around mid-May, at which point, we will assess the evolution of Middle East situation, international prices, domestic demand, and macroeconomic condition.

I would like to dedicate a few minutes to share with you the successful development of La Angostura Sur, a block that, in our view, perfectly captures what YPF is capable of when we combine operational excellence with a strategic vision. Just 18 months ago, La Angostura Sur produced 2,000 barrels per day of shale oil.

Today, it's producing approximately 55,000 barrels per day. This remarkable ramp-up is roughly 25-times growth in 1 year and a half.

Moreover, La Angostura Sur is now ranked as the number-five Vaca Muerta block, and it currently represents approximately 25% of YPF's total shale oil production. What makes this block even more compelling from an investment standpoint is its economics, with a breakeven price below $40 per barrel, lifting cost of around $3 per barrel, and a development level of approximately 19%, there is substantial upside ahead under an unconventional concession valid through 2059.

Our plateau target for this block is approximately 100,000 barrels per day. We have 100% of the equity stake in La Angostura Sur.

This means YPF capture the full value of this world-class asset. La Angostura Sur is not just a production story; it's a proof of concept.

It demonstrated YPF's ability to rapidly develop Vaca Muerta at scale with capital discipline at competitive costs. We are committed to replicating this model across our portfolio.

Now, I turn the call to Pedro to analyze in detail our financial results.

Pedro Kearney

Thank you, Horacio, and good morning to you all. Let me walk through our consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2026.

The headline is clear: this was a quarter of exceptionally strong free cash flow, which drove an accelerated deleveraging of our balance sheet, fueled by strategic M&A collections and strong adjusted EBITDA. As Horacio briefly explained, M&A activity resulted in a net contribution of $504 million to the cash flow of the quarter.

This was mainly driven by the final proceeds from the Profertil divestiture, totaling approximately $410 million. Additionally, during the quarter, we received about $85 million as partial payment from the sale of the conventional Manantiales Behr field.

Total price of this field amounted $410 million, with an earn-out of up to $40 million. The remaining balance is expected to be collected throughout the rest of this year, 2027, and 2028.

These proceeds were partially offset by an initial payment of $16 million related to the acquisition of a portion of Equinor assets in Vaca Muerta through a joint venture with Vista Energy, which was closed yesterday and resulted in a total price of around $204 million. Together with the upcoming divestment of Metrogas and the remaining conventional assets from the Andes II program, these transactions will further strengthen our financial position and provide greater flexibility to focus on our most profitable core business, Vaca Muerta.

The solid free cash flow evolution was also driven by outstanding performance in all our operations, navigating international volatility and profitable margins and cost efficiencies, as well as operating refineries at full capacity and continuously expanding our shale operation. As a result, the higher first quarter adjusted EBITDA comfortably covered investment and interest payment of the quarter.

As a result, this substantial improvement in operational cash flow for the quarter led to an increase in the company's liquidity, which ended at $1.7 billion as of the end of March 2026, representing an improvement of $500 million during the quarter. Turning to our financial situation, let me highlight that YPF balance sheet is on a strong and improved trajectory, with a solid liquidity position and very manageable debt maturities.

In terms of financing, we reconfirm our strong access to the capital markets by raising in the first quarter nearly $1 billion across international and local markets, as well as bank credit facilities at attractive financing costs. In the international capital market, during the first quarter, we successfully retapped our 2034 bond, adding $550 million at a yield of 8.1%, representing the lowest rate secured by YPF in the international market in the last 9 years.

Moreover, we have been very active in the local capital market during the first 4 months of 2026. We successfully issued around $285 million in two local US dollars MEP bonds: $161 million at a 3-year tenor with a yield of 6.5%, and $122 million at a 4-year tenor with an outstanding yield of 5.5%.

Regarding financial and trade-related loans, in February, we were able to partially refinance a local syndicated loan for $176 million, extending additional 36 months its average life. Moreover, this financing strategy, combined with a significant positive free cash flow generated in the first quarter, enabled the company to proactively refinance existing facilities.

During the first 4 months of the year, we prepaid approximately $750 million in debt obligations scheduled to mature between the remainder of 2026 and 2028, optimizing our capital structure and lowering our average cost of debt. Looking at our debt maturity profile, the remaining maturities for 2026 total approximately $1 billion, primarily composed of around $600 million in local bonds, of which we have already proactively repurchased $100 million as a hedge strategy of our liquidity position; around $300 million of international bonds; and the rest corresponding to other local debt.

We are well prepared to meet our debt obligations for this year, supported by the substantial liquidity generated during the first quarter at $1.7 billion. Finally, it's worth noting the evolution of the company's net leverage ratio.

As of the end of the first quarter, our net leverage ratio stood at 1.57 times, down 25% from its peak of 2.1 times reached in the third quarter of 2025. The trend is clearly positive, and we expect continued improvement throughout the year as cash generation remains strong.

I am now turning to Max to go through our operational performance.

Maximiliano Westen

Thank you, Pedro, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by taking a closer look at our upstream performance.

Shale oil continued achieving new record high levels in the first quarter, reaching 205,000 barrels per day, a 5% sequential increase and a 39% year-over-year improvement. As Horacio mentioned before, this achievement was primarily driven by the outstanding performance of La Angostura Sur block, which has shown exponential production growth in recent months.

These production levels are fully aligned with our plan, keeping us on track to meet our production targets of the year. The strong shale oil production growth fully offsets the continuous divestment from conventional oil fields, which declined more than 45% interannually, recording 66,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.

On a pro forma basis, excluding the recently divested assets, Manantiales Behr, Malargüe, and Tierra del Fuego blocks, our conventional production would have averaged only about 35,000 barrels per day by March. As a result, we continue delivering meaningful savings across our cost matrix, demonstrating a remarkable 42% year-over-year reduction in our upstream lifting costs, which dropped to $8.8 per BOE in the first quarter.

Furthermore, excluding divested assets, pro forma lifting costs would have averaged around $8 per BOE. Zooming into our shale oil hub blocks, lifting costs reached best-in-class levels of $4 per BOE, primarily driven by significant cost efficiencies in pulling activities, especially in the Loma Campana block, as well as the growing share of La Angostura Sur blocks in our production portfolio, which notably has a lifting cost of around $3 per BOE, the lowest among all YPF fields.

On the other hand, the natural gas production averaged 32.8 million cubic meters per day, down 12% year-over-year, mainly reflecting our continued exit from mature conventional fields, partially offset by shale gas expansion. Finally, let me highlight that on April 23rd, 2026, the shareholders meeting of VMOS approved the allocation to YPF of 44,000 barrels per day of additional available capacity of the pipeline.

With this decision, YPF's stake in VMOS increases from around 25% to 30%, which is key to supporting the company's production growth in the coming years. In addition, Oldelval is expected to expand its transportation capacity by roughly 150,000 barrels per day by year-end through upgrades to pumping stations and using polymers.

Of this incremental capacity, YPF will hold around 40,000 barrels per day and will support higher volumes of YPF shale oil to our La Plata refinery. Overall, these results reconfirm our upstream strategy robustness: shale oil driving higher efficiency by reducing lifting costs and sustaining a more resilient production output.

Now, let me share the progress achieved in terms of productivity and operational efficiencies in our upstream segment, where the continuous improvement in drilling and completion efficiency has positioned YPF as the best-in-class operator in Vaca Muerta. Our drilling speed in our shale oil hub reached 364 meters per day in the first quarter, reaching a 12% improvement compared to 2025.

Moreover, our unconventional fracturing speed amounted to 11.2 stages per set per day, growing 15% compared to 2025, supported by a 10% increase in pumping hours to an average of 18.5 hours per day in the first quarter. This performance reflects lower non-productive time and greater operational consistency.

In this sense, let me highlight that in January, we drilled a new horizontal well in just 10 days in La Amarga Chica block, reaching a drilling speed of 520 meters per day. Faster drilling and fracturing means more wells completed in less time, which directly translates into faster production ramp-up and lower costs per well.

One of the most important efficiency levers we have been developing is the transition to longer horizontal wells design. We have moved from a standard horizontal length of around 3,000 meters in the previous years to nearly 3,450 meters in the first quarter of 2026.

Finally, we would like to highlight the continuous strengthening of our relationships with key suppliers. In this context, in April, we signed a 5-year contract with Halliburton for electric fracturing services, combining electrification and automation to boost efficiency, maintaining greater operational consistency and helping to reduce emissions intensity.

Moving to our midstream and downstream segment, our processing levels averaged 344,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, growing by 3% sequentially and 8% interannually, and setting another record high processing level. Moreover, this exceptional performance was coupled with record production of premium gasoline and middle distillates, allowing us to avoid imports, supply local peers, and export to neighboring countries.

Regarding domestic sales of gasoline and diesel, dispatch volumes declined by 3% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonality. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline and diesel volumes grew by 8%, supported by stronger demand across all commercial segments, particularly in the agribusiness.

As a result, we maintained a solid 57% market share, fully in line with our historical levels, which increases up to 60% when including gasoline and diesel produced by YPF and dispatched through third-party gas stations. Turning to our pricing strategy, local fuel prices increased by 12% sequentially, primarily reflecting the rally in international reference prices that began in March, which were largely passed through the prices at the pump.

Importantly, as Horacio explained earlier, fuel demand during late March fell by 10% approximately compared to early March, which supported our decision to temporarily delay further pass-through of international price increases to the local market for 45 days. In addition, following the price adjustments recorded in March, during April, fuel prices remained competitive.

Lastly, our midstream and downstream adjusted EBITDA margin remained strong at $19.1 per barrel in the first quarter. This margin further strengthened to about $24 per barrel in April, driven by elevated processing volumes and the effective pricing strategy outlined earlier.

I am now turning to Horacio for updates regarding Argentina LNG and final remarks.

Horacio Marín

Thank you, Max. Finally, let me share updates on the LNG project, the most transformational initiative in YPF's history that is making solid progress on all fronts.

Regarding the SESA tolling phase, in which YPF holds a 25% equity stake, during the first quarter, SESA signed an SPA for an LNG supply partnership with SEFE, an internationally energy company based in Germany. This strategic agreement covers a period of 8 years for 2 million tons per year, starting in late 2027, representing around 30% of SESA total capacity, which corresponds to the total capacity of the first vessel, Hilli.

In parallel, SESA awarded engineering and construction contract for the 480-kilometer gas pipeline and has been advancing on the project finance of the project. Turning to Argentina LNG project, as flagged on our previous earnings call, this project contemplates the development, design, construction, and operation of a fully integrated LNG, condensate, and NGL facilities.

The founding partners are YPF, Eni, and XRG, the international energy investment arm of ADNOC. The project contemplates a total investment, excluding the upstream segment, of approximately $24 billion, which include the financial cost associated with the financing structure.

These figures constitute an upward adjustment versus the most recent CapEx disclosed during the fourth quarter '25 results presentation. However, this adjustment reflects a strategic reallocation of investment between the upstream and midstream businesses, further optimizing the aggregate CapEx of the integrated project.

Since the beginning of this year, we have been actively advancing the project financing process. In this context, we conducted a comprehensive market-sounding exercise to assess investors' appetite.

The response was very strong, with interest from approximately 50 institutional investors and cumulative initial appetite exceeding the project financing requirement, reaffirming the project financial viability. In addition, during the quarter, we have been diligently developing both our commercial and procurement strategies.

On the commercial front, we launched a competitive bidding process, and the market response was very positive, far exceeding our initial expectations and demonstrating robust demand. On the procurement side, we are actively advancing the engineering phase for the various procurement packages required for the project.

Our goal is to ensure that all necessary preparation are in place to enable a final investment decision by year-end. Moreover, last month, the province of Neuquén approved the assignment of Pluspetrol 50% interest to YPF in the three wet gas blocks identified to develop the Argentina LNG project.

Finally, I would like to emphasize that YPF continued to lead the key infrastructure debottlenecking initiatives required to fully monetize the vast shale oil and gas resources of Vaca Muerta, one of the world's most competitive basins in term of breakeven prices. In this context, YPF was awarded the Argentine country brand certification, recognizing the company's role as a key contributor to the country's productive development and its international positioning.

This distinction underscores YPF's contribution to reinforce Argentina's global image and supporting the attraction of long-term investment. With this, we conclude our presentation and open the floor for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press *1 again.

We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device.

Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Furrow with Pickering Energy Partners.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Furrow

Hello, and good morning. Thanks for having us on the call and taking our questions.

Horacio, I was hoping to get your perspective on the local service market in the Vaca Muerta. The play is attracting more international attention.

I think YPF is in a good position to offer some insight after signing the recent deal with Halliburton. We've noticed several US oilfield service companies mention South America and Argentina specifically as emerging markets for their businesses on recent conference calls.

My question is, are you actively seeing new entrants, and do you think that this is resulting in a more competitive service pricing environment? If not, what do you think needs to change before more service providers feel comfortable with the Vaca Muerta and Argentina in general?

Horacio Marín

Thank you very much. First, I would like to say that today is Pedro's birthday, and also my birthday.

You have to be very polite with us, okay, because this is our birthday, okay?

Michael Furrow

Happy birthday to both of you.

Horacio Marín

Thank you very much. 63, I was born in '63, okay?

It's a special day today, eh? You have to be nice, okay?

Yes. In the service contract and the unit cost, I think next quarter, you will see a reduction in our cost, because we make a very, I would say, strong bidding with all the international service companies.

We get very good reduction, because it's logical, because Argentina is a new country, it's business friendly, and it was a big reduction. This week, I was also in United States trying to convince service company to come to Argentina.

We need more competition. I learned in United States, to reduce the price, there is two ways.

One by competition, big competition. The second one is to take one out.

If there are 3-2, it's 2-1. If there are 4-3, or there are 4-2.

We did that process, and we were very success for the shareholders' value. For this year, we are going to improve.

In December, you will see 19 rigs. We secure all the rigs.

Also, we secure all the frac fleet. Now we are working for next year.

Also, we are importing the last technology equipment from United States. Halliburton is trying, it will be in Argentina the first electrical frac fleet.

Our real-time intelligence center is working very well and improving a lot. We need a good equipment with technology, because it's the one that we are investing, and the one that we see that we are improving a lot every quarter.

We have also a procedure to improve our standard times in all drilling and completion by the base 40 automatically. Every quarter when it's finished, the people in YPF will know that we have new standard and are always more challenging than it was before.

That's the way that we work. I agree with your question that we try to come more service company, and try also, we are working that more service company in United States, have to be in joint venture with Argentine companies to improve the quality and the efficiency, because we know that tomorrow must be better than today.

Tomorrow, we have to be more efficient than yesterday. That is the way that we work in YPF.

All right,

Michael Furrow

thank you for the context. As a follow-up, I'd like to ask about the concession sales that Neuquén Province is offering in August.

Particularly interested in your opinions on the prospectivity of the northern acreage, given YPF's adjacent position and knowledge of the area. Without giving away too much information, are there certain blocks that YPF is interested in, or is the company comfortable with the current asset portfolio?

Horacio Marín

We have what we call North Hub, Hub Core, and South Core. South Core, we have all that, and we are going to present RIGI, I think next week.

This is the big, big, big RIGI. For the north, we are working, we have more partners.

In the south, we are 100%. We are working with our partners to have the RIGI and to start.

After that, we have always to make our projection and to have the best value for shareholders. It's a mixture between the capital that we reach from partners and 100%.

In that way, we always try to put the maximum or the optimum way of making value for shareholders.

Michael Furrow

All right, thanks for your time, and hope you and Pedro have a nice birthday.

Horacio Marín

Okay.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Guardiola with BTG Pactual. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Daniel Guardiola

Good morning, Horacio, Pedro, Max, and Margarita, and thank you for presentation. I have a couple of questions from our end.

One is on prices. I see that the quarter somehow benefited from a sharp increase in oil prices in March, but I get the feeling that much of the pricing benefit in both upstream and downstream appears to be delayed.

I wanted to ask you, in the case Brent remains high as it is today, above $90, how quickly can you guys now pass through price changes domestically under the current market framework? It would be awesome if you could please provide some sensitivity in terms of your EBITDA generation for 2026 if oil prices range in 2026 around $80 to $90.

That would be my first question. My second one is on the lifting costs.

We have seen a very sharp decline in lifting costs, declining 42% year-over-year. Of course, we are seeing a more efficient structure in the core hub, in the shale oil core hub.

I want to ask you how much further room you think there is for structural reduction, especially considering that the company is transitioning from conventional assets towards unconventional assets, but at the same time, high oil prices are perhaps creating inflation pressures in Vaca Muerta. Those would be my two questions.

Thank you, guys.

Horacio Marín

Thank you for questions. The first one, I don't know if I agree with you that the quarter is only because of the sharp increase in prices during March, because look in detail and you will see that it's a big, big difference because of our strategy to be more unconventional.

That was in your introduction. I will answer you the question.

I'm not worried about in the prices that you are saying, that if it remains in $90 or going to $80 or $90, we are very okay and we can quickly pass-through the prices. I don't see that problem.

I will not say what is our price today because it's a buffer. I prefer not to say because of the competition, even that everybody, we are doing the same.

I don't see at all that it will be a problem for us if the price of Brent remains in the order of $90, it remains in the $80 to $90 range. For the second question, you say, we are working very, very hard, all people in YPF, always try to optimizing.

That's why you can see the big difference in both upstream and downstream during those years. I don't take account what you are saying, why you saying inflation pressure.

I don't know what you're talking about, because a country with is okay, and that means that we are improving in the country. I'm not agree on that.

My job is to work and be always, always more efficient. Really, you'll see that we are reducing the lifting cost.

Also, if you see how we are developing the way of developing, you see how Vaca Muerta in general was increasing, and you compare the way that we are developing now, it's totally different. We are doing very fast, and so we can reach better, better efficiency.

We have also in our operation, a, I would say, very sophisticated real-time intelligence center for the operation. We can see everything.

We have drones, we have everything on that. We are improving a lot every day that we are there, every month that we are following the management control, we see that all the KPIs go in the good direction.

I'm positive in the way that the quarter of YPF are doing the show. We are very proud of why we are reducing, and we are going to reduce more.

We have very few asset in conventional, and our idea is to try to sell out during 2026, and be a special company, what is unconventional integrated company.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Bruno Montanari

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question, and happy birthday.

The first question is about the LNG project. You do mention you have the two foundation partners, Eni and XRG.

I'm wondering if on the back of all the energy security and the conflict in the Middle East, YPF is seeing now interest of potential additional partners coming into Argentina LNG, and potentially making it viable discussions about the potential expansion of 6 million tons per year. That is my first question.

My second question is about the drilling and completion pace in the first quarter now. There seems to have been a temporarily slowdown in the beginning of the year.

I do understand you are reiterating all the production guidance, but I just wanted to have more color on what happened specifically in the first quarter that led to a slower activity level. Thank you very much.

Horacio Marín

Thank you very much. With the LNG, we are working the three partners.

In fact, today we are in Milan, the three teams, working very hard, very hard to finish all the contracts, because our idea to be in the BDR as soon as possible for the project finance. Really, we don't need another partner, but it could be potentially another one.

We are working the three, and we are very proud of what we are doing. From my point of view what I think, from the conflict of Middle East, there are two things that is happening.

There is more appetite for finance our project. This is a big and robust project.

It's one of the best profitable project in the world today. The other thing that I see is that, that is my point of view, that is going to speed up a lot what we call the expansion.

I think the expansion it will be quickly than we thought before. It will be speed up a lot.

There is also, before the conflict, we have a lot of appetite from off-takers, and we see I would say good, not contract, negotiation with the possible off-takers. We are in very, very, very good moment, and very good path for to have FID at the end of the year, I'm very happy on that.

In the second part, the slowdown in drilling and completion, I would pass to Max Westen, but I will tell you that it's a question of bottlenecks that is in our infrastructure. Next year, you will not see that anymore.

You will see an improvement, incremental production month by month, but you had to take into account there was a big change in the system. I pass to Max.

Maximiliano Westen

Thank you, Horacio. Hello, Bruno, how are you?

No, there wasn't a slowdown. What happened is that what we did in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter last year is that we drilled longer lateral wells, about as an average 6% higher, longer laterals compared to the fourth quarter.

We've drilled pretty, pretty much the same amount of wells. On top of that, there was an effect that at the end of last year during fourth quarter, there was a window in which we've accelerated our plan of reducing our DUCs, that we have the drilled and uncompleted wells.

We had some extraordinary CapEx at the fourth quarter to reduce to DUCs. Over the first quarter, we've drilled longer lateral wells.

What I can tell you is that we are maintaining our production targets for this year, and you will see a ramp-up in the level of activity starting next month, with Horacio commented this, going up to 19 rigs at the end of the year. We've did that at the correct pacing, because there's not much more that we can evacuate until VMOS is COD, so that's our plan.

Bruno Montanari

Perfect, thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vicente Falanga with Bradesco BBI. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Vicente Falanga

Hi, Horacio, Pedro. Feliz cumpleaños, and thank you for taking my question.

I had one. YPF has now been very successful in accelerating the de-risking of the southern cluster.

I was wondering what is the timeline for the northern cluster in terms of development, and what are the key milestones we can expect for the next couple of years, maybe? Thank you very much.

Horacio Marín

Hello, Vicente. As I tell before, the north part is not where we are in 100%.

We are now negotiating with our partners, and I'm very positive that we will reach very soon, I would say, a development phase and how to develop. After, we present the RIGI.

For sure, next year we will start de-risking that part. We need that because, at the end of that, we have to develop very well all that not to have child, and also to go to the places where we make more value for to the shareholders.

Vicente Falanga

Thank you very much. Or

Horacio Marín

you need more details?

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andres Cardona with Citi. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Andres Cardona

Hi, good morning, Horacio, Pedro. Happy birthday, what an unexpected synergy here.

One quick question about the productivity of Langostura Sur. How does it compare with other key Vaca Muerta fields?

Versus your initial expectations, do you think there is upside on the numbers on the south hub? How many acres and drilling locations do you have in this new developing area?

Thank you.

Horacio Marín

Okay. In in general, the the productivity that we have in in LAS is the like a Hub Core.

It's is very good. Also, you can have better results comparing with the with the history, because now we have more more lateral, is is longer, and so we have more efficient on that, okay?

The the all all that what we call what we call the south hub, because this 100% of YPF, it will be very very productive, is very profitable, it's extremely good. We have lots of well to do.

You will see next week the RIGI, and there will be the order of 1,200 locations to drill, and and there is there will be very important for incremental production that we have in the in the long term for our peak production in in the beginning of next decade. You you say also about the possibility of the timing of the 6 million, that is something that we have to discuss with the partners, and I I have the the idea, I was started discussing, but I prefer that we are we are very good partners that the three at the same moment say that.

I, in my point of view, that is because the robust of what is the Argentina LNG that it will be speed up. Sorry not to answer.

I don't like also to not answer questions, but I think I have to be a very good partner with them.

Andres Cardona

Thank you. Thank you, Horacio.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Leonardo Marcondes with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Leonardo Marcondes

Hi, everyone. Good morning.

Thank you for taking my questions. Happy birthday to you guys, as well.

I have two questions from my end. The first one is related to the inclusion of upstream projects into the RIGI framework, right?

My question is, what blocks do you expect to register for RIGI, and how should they change your drilling plans in the middle term, right? My second question is regarding the LNG project.

It seems that you guys have implemented some changes since the last quarter, right? Because as we compare both presentations, we see that CapEx for phase one have increased to $24 billion from $20 billion, and now you are contemplating what seems to be two pipelines, right?

One for wet gas and one for C5+. If you could walk us through this main changes here, it would be great.

Thank you.

Horacio Marín

Thank you for the question. The first one, we are going to include all the possible blocks that can be applied to RIGI, okay?

The RIGI, because it's the same for everybody, all the all the blocks, they will not change the relative preferences for one to the other. I think it's they are not going to change our drilling drilling plan, and also our idea was always to develop quickly, quickly.

Maybe they can for because of the the RIGI is a very an excellent program, they could speed up our peak, okay? That that we are going to show in big detail in the next Investor Day that we are going to travel to New York in April, and you will see the big difference.

You have a state that next year because of the difference on prices in this year and and the RIGI and all that, I'm very positive that you can see an speed up of our program. For the second part, maybe we were not clear with some maybe it could be decision for us because there was no changes, because it could be confused you because we put $24 billion and $20 billion, but it's the same.

I explain why. With all the partners in the engineering part, we follow and and see in big details all the project, and we realized that it would be more profitable if we make more all all the plant, instead to be in the separation plant in in Neuquén, is it will be the first phase, and after it will be we grade, they go directly to the port, and there we make a big plant.

It was a shift of investment from what we call upstream to to let's say midstream, or midstream plus downstream. That is the difference.

The other difference that we see from the beginning, that you have now the gas the gas pipe, always we take about that, but also it is a a wide rate that they they go all, condensate plus all the the the different liquids. After, in in Río Negro, we are going to separate the NGLs more, and so there will be three products out, what is the gas for LNG, NGLs for export, and also the the liquids of the oil for export.

That that that is the difference, but really there is no in more more cost. I would say that it's less cost than we thought, because we were not clear when we talked about it was what was in the upstream, because the upstream is not in project finance in general, and so you cannot see all all the system on that.

That is not the big. I would say that it's better than before, but you see in the project finance, $4 million more, okay?

Maybe it was our fault, and so apologize, okay?"

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of George Gasztowtt with LatAm Securities. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

George Gasztowtt

Hi, good morning, and happy birthday to you both. I was wondering if you could please unpack the 102% refinery utilization in 1Q, and how sustainable that is.

Relatedly, how are fuel inventories running so far in 2Q, and do you think you'll be able to sell some to other refiners again? Thank you.

Horacio Marín

Thank you. Yes, it's sustainable because in YPF, the people of downstream make excellent, excellent efficiency without big investments, and so that is sustainable.

When there is quarter that you have to make stoppage, for sure it will be lower. If not, I would say that could be that number or increasing more, okay?

Because all the transformation that people from downstream made in YPF in the last three years, you see that YPF used to import, and now it's not importing anymore. Also, we sell to the domestic market when the other make the stoppage.

Also, we export for the neighbor countries. Also, we can sell diesel for electricity generation.

There is big change in YPF, and it's a good news for the shareholders.

George Gasztowtt

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Claudia Rivera with Santander. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Claudia Rivera

Hi, good morning, Horacio and team, and happy birthday to both. My question is, given Brent prices have remained above $100, how should we think about downstream margins dynamics in the second quarter?

Do you expect to pass through higher crude cost into domestic pump prices, and what will be the timing and pass-through dynamics look like? Okay.

Horacio Marín

If the Brent has remained above $100, you are saying some sensitivity we are talking, okay? The margin of dynamic, or the margin of downstream will be more than $3 per barrel, what is excellent margin, okay?

I answer your question, okay, there. I don't know if it will be $100, $90, $80.

I have no idea when the conflict, or on the strait, it will be open, okay? We have a real policy of international prices.

We are going to pass through. The question, why we didn't pass through, it was a question of demand and supply.

It was reducing the demand so fast in the last two weeks, therefore, for us to improve was worse for YPF and for the shareholders and to make a buffer. After the buffer, we see also instead the demand going down, it's start growing up.

Why? Because people were with our uncertainties, because when you have one week that it was $90, the other $100, $110, $112, it was it make uncertainty for the consumers.

At the end, we are going to pass through the dynamics, and also we have, I would say, account that we see how much we have to take out the dynamics of the conflict is on, okay? It's our policy, and it will not be a problem.

I don't see a problem to pass through.

Claudia Rivera

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matías Cattaruzzi with AdCap Securities. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Hi, Horacio, Pedro, and Max. Happy birthday to you both.

I have a few questions. First, and a simple one, what's going to happen after the fuel freeze after May 15?

Then, in your guys' 2026 guidance of CapEx, you guided to a neutral to slightly negative free cash flow at a Brent of $63-$65, and now we are well over that range. Is your CapEx going to change?

You got the infrastructure constraints. We are seeing a really low CapEx in the first quarter.

Can you guide us through what's going to be 2026, and then what's going to be 2027? Then I got an additional question about the acquired capacity at VMOS.

Can you tell us if it's going to affect the production curve in 2026 if you're going to expect a higher ramp in the beginning and middle of the year?

Horacio Marín

Okay. First question, beginning of next week, we are going to have a big meeting in YPF between us, and we will decide what will happen after May 15.

We are going to communicate what the decision that we're going to make, okay? I think I answered you what happened after May 15 in the previous question that they asked me.

About the 2026 guidance of the CapEx for sure if the price is higher, you have to expect, as we say in New York, I think was last year, that I would say simple sensitivities $80 million per dollar that they will increase in EBITDA, you to have rough numbers if you want. We cannot accelerate this year because we have bottlenecks, and I think we are going to reach a bottleneck of the evacuation between October or November.

That's why we cannot accelerate, because it was accelerated that we improve the capital in the ground, but not taking out. Next year, and I think I say before that we are going to accelerate, we can have in 2027, I think we are going to have a better production than we thought.

I prefer to show you in New York in April, and you will see that because if we have less necessity of CapEx, and we have the evacuation out, and you have more cash of YPF, we are going to put that for improve the production and make more value for the shareholders, and to reach the plateau before.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Thank you so much. Happy birthday.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tasso Vasconcellos with UBS. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Tasso Vasconcellos

Hi, Horacio, Pedro, Max. Horacio, I wanted to move back here on how you're thinking in terms of capital allocation for YPF, get some additional color from your side.

You had a lot of success in the 4x4 plan that you released when you first assumed the company. You had a lot of success in focusing the core assets and the operations of the core assets, divesting from some other assets.

Maybe if you can make a summary on everything that you accomplished since you assumed the company, and of course, looking forward, what do you still view as adjustments required for YPF, where would you want to invest more, especially in this scenario of higher Brent and YPF making more money, and of course, if anticipating dividends at some point could also be a possibility. Anyways, I think just to get some additional color on how you're thinking about capital allocation as a whole for YPF.

That's the question. Thank you.

Horacio Marín

Thank you for your question. The capital allocation is always I tell you something that is more our cooking, that is we have a week that we call CapEx Week.

There, we discuss all the projects in detail, all the economics, and we allocate what is more economical to the less economical, okay? That is the way that we allocate.

If you allocate that in the upstream, unconventional is first. At the beginning when I arrived YPF, say, 'I am unconventional guy.'

Not because I love unconventional and not the conventional, because when it's all that they are very young, it's better the conventional than unconventional. In Argentina, the conventional is old.

We allocate all in unconventional, and it's my goal, personal goal, and the company goal, to be unconventional integrated company. Really, we are very close to over there.

We are negotiating going out from the last one. The allocation in upstream, you have to be clear that it would be unconventional.

Always, it's a portfolio in our portfolio that you have prioritized the economics, and between the one that we are with partners and the 100%. What is the good news for us is that the big, big state that we have in 100% are wonderful.

They are very profitable, and we allocate more than where they are. It's a new way of YPF.

It's not that we need if the partners don't want, we can increase the production very fast, very fast, and this our idea, okay? If the price that is the same now, that it would be this year, next year, and so in higher level, for sure, our people are making more revenues, and we have better results.

That result, it would be allocated for increasing the production. It will be better for the LNG.

We are very, I would say, positive of the results of the 4x4. I expect that you are the same that us, even if my birthday, you have to say yes, okay?

You are the same as us in the success of the 4x4. Really, I tell you, I see now every month, when I see all the results of the company in detail, that I would say, this engine that is YPF is working very, very hard, and making value in all over the business that we have.

Operator

Great.

Tasso Vasconcellos

Thank you, Horacio.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Horacio Marín for closing remarks.

Horacio Marín

Thank you very much for all the questions. Thank you, everybody, to be in that call.

I say, for all the guys that we work here, that I'm very proud to work with YPF. We are working hard, but with passion.

That is the difference. Company with passion has extraordinary results.

It's that what YPF is doing now. I try always to say at the end that in the memory of my grandmother, I breathe YPF, I breathe YPF, I sweat YPF, I think YPF, I love YPF.

Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending.

You may now disconnect.