CTO Realty Growth, Inc.

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.

20.20
USD
+0.04
(+0.20%)
794.13MMarket Cap
Feb 25Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 28, 2026

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the CTO Realty Growth 2026 Quarter 3 Earnings Call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised.

To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jenna McKinney, Director of Finance. Jenna, please go ahead.

Jenna McKinney

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the CTO Realty Growth third quarter 2026 operating results conference call. Participating on the call this morning are John Albright, President and Chief Executive Officer, Philip Mays, Chief Financial Officer, and other members of the executive team who will be available to answer questions during the call.

I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. The company's actual future results may differ materially from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements, and we undertake no duty to update these statements.

Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are discussed from time to time in greater detail in the company's Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other SEC filings. You can find our SEC reports, earnings release, supplemental, and most recent investor presentation on our website at ccoreit.com.

With that, I will turn the call over to John.

John Albright

Thanks, Jenna, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was very productive for CTO as we continued our strong leasing and investment momentum.

During the quarter, we signed 467,000 square feet of leases and completed $102.3 million of investments at a weighted average yield of 9.1%. That brings our nine-month totals to 833,000 square feet of leasing and $336.5 million of investments at a weighted average yield of 9.4%.

This activity drove core FFO per diluted share growth of 10.4% for the quarter and 13.8% for the nine months. We have now addressed all 11 of our vacated anchor spaces.

Just after the quarter end, we signed approximately 75,000 square feet of new leases at Pompano City Centre and completed an additional $135.8 million of investments, bringing year-to-date investments to $472 million at a weighted average yield of 9.4%. Reflecting all of this activity, we are raising our 2026 core FFO guidance, which Phil will walk through shortly.

Starting with leasing, our third quarter activity included 396,000 square feet of comparable leases at a 7% cash rent spread. Year-to-date, comparable leasing totals 726,000 square feet at a 9% cash rent spread.

Regarding the vacated anchor spaces, we addressed the last remaining box this quarter by subdividing the former Conn's space at Carolina Pavilion in Charlotte and signing leases with Cavender's and 2nd & Charles. We're pleased with how this all played out.

Of the 11 spaces, nine have been re-leased at approximately 70% positive spread. The remaining two, as previously announced, are under contract to be sold to a national retailer for $20.7 million, with closing expected in the fourth quarter.

We expect these new anchors to bring more traffic to our centers and benefit the adjacent small shop space. A few other leasing highlights.

First, we signed a 55,000-square-foot lease with Crunch Fitness at Crossroads Town Center in Phoenix to replace Harkins Theatres. Although the Harkins lease runs through late 2028, we had negotiated an early termination right.

That led us proactively backfill the space at a positive cash spread with a use that will drive more foot traffic. We expect roughly 12 months of downtime between Harkins vacating in early 2027 and the Crunch lease commencing in 2028.

Second, just after the quarter end, Amped Fitness signed a lease to expand by 19,000 square feet at Pompano City Centre, bringing this immersive, experience-driven fitness destination to 53,000 square feet. An Amped affiliate also leased 56,000 square feet for research, development, and testing of gym equipment in experiential rooms, as well as office operations.

This space is part of the 62,000 square feet of unfinished second-floor shell space we identified as upside when we acquired the property last December. Because this space isn't currently in the center's square footage, the lease will increase Pompano City Centre to 565,000 square feet.

Third, our outparcel program. This quarter, we signed four leases at multi-tenant buildings in two outparcel developments: T-Mobile at the Plaza at Rockwall, and Jason's Deli, Acapello Nails Spa, and Nothing Bundt Cakes at Beaver Creek in Raleigh.

Together with the Swig and Cooper's Hawk leases signed earlier this year, we're making steady progress. We continue to expect a blended low double-digit unlevered yield on about $30 million of investments across these six outparcels, with earnings contribution beginning in 2027 and the full benefit in 2028.

Turning to occupancy, excluding Zona Rosa, leased occupancy increased to 95.7% from 95.4% last quarter. Including Zona Rosa, which was 67% leased when we acquired it, the total portfolio was 92.4% leased at September 30th.

Zona Rosa gives us real room to grow, which I'll come back to in a moment. At quarter end, our signed-not-open pipeline was $5.6 million, or about 4.6% of in-place cash rent.

That's down modestly from last quarter, mainly because the state of New Mexico began paying rent at our Albuquerque property in September. Though new leasing during the quarter offset most of this impact.

We expect the majority of the signed-not-open pipeline to commence rent over the course of 2027. Moving to investments, on our last call, we said we expected to close at least one more acquisition this year.

We closed two, both in Kansas City, a new market for CTO with more than 2.2 million people and a pro-business climate. Together, these two centers, both in strong local submarkets, add about 1.3 million square feet to our portfolio.

First, Zona Rosa, which we acquired in the third quarter for approximately $63 million, or $82 per square foot, well below replacement cost. It's a top lifestyle center in Kansas City's Northland submarket with about 5.5 million annual visits and is anchored by DSW, Barnes & Noble, Old Navy, Burlington, and DSW.

Beyond the lease-up opportunities, the property includes 10 acres of entitled development land and about 100,000 square feet of underutilized space we can reposition. Second, Summit Woods Crossing, which we acquired in early October for $103 million, or $189 per square foot, also well below replacement cost.

It's a 545,000-square-foot power center in Lee's Summit, one of the metro's most affluent submarkets. It's 99% occupied and anchored by Lowe's, Kohl's, Best Buy, TJ Maxx, and Total Wine, with a SuperTarget on the site that we don't own.

With about 7.3 million annual visits, it's among the most-visited shopping centers in the Kansas City metro area. These two acquisitions also strengthen our tenant credit, with Dick's and Best Buy both investment grade, becoming our two largest tenants.

On the structured investment side, in July, we originated a $37 million loan, of which $29.8 million was funded at closing. It's secured by leasehold interest in a mixed-use property in Austin, Texas, has a two-year term, and carries a 9.75% initial cash yield.

Then, after quarter end, we closed a $32 million preferred equity investment in a joint venture that owns 10 shopping centers. It is fully funded at closing, has a three-year term, and yields 17%, including 7% pay-in-kind.

Our structured investment portfolio now totals approximately $260 million at a blended rate of 12.1%. Finally, during the quarter, we closed a new expanded credit facility that gives us ample capacity to fund this activity.

Phil will cover the details. In summary, we're very pleased with the nine months of 2026.

We believe our embedded growth drivers, including below-market in-place rents, the signed-not-open pipeline, lease-up opportunities, outparcel developments, and disciplined capital recycling, position CTO for meaningful earnings growth. With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

Philip Mays

Thanks, John. On this call, I will briefly highlight our quarterly results and provide an update on our balance sheet and revised full-year outlook.

Starting with operating results. For the third quarter, core FFO was 53 cents per diluted share, up 10.4% from 48 cents a year ago.

Growth was driven primarily by leases that commenced paying rent over the past year, along with contributions from our property acquisitions and structured investments. Year-to-date, core FFO was $1.57 per diluted share, up 13.8%.

Shopping centers same-property NOI grew 3.8% for the quarter and 6.2% for the year-to-date. As we flagged on our last call, growth moderated as several anchors that opened in late 2025 moved into the prior-year comparable period.

Including our few non-core properties, total same-property NOI grew 2.3% for the quarter. This reflects the downtime at our last significant non-core property in Albuquerque, where space vacated last December is now leased to the state of New Mexico, which recently commenced paying rent, as John noted.

Turning to Pine, income from our management agreement and equity investment was $2.2 million for the quarter, and our annualized run rate is now $9 million, consisting of $5.8 million of management fees and $3.2 million of dividend income. Moving to the balance sheet, during the quarter, we closed a $1 billion unsecured credit facility consisting of a $400 million revolver and $600 million of term loans, with maturities ranging from September 2029 to March 2032.

The facility added $250 million of commitments and liquidity and extended our weighted average debt maturity to 4.3 years from 1.6 years. Also during the quarter, we raised $27.3 million in net proceeds through our ATM program at an average gross price of $21.83 per share and repaid our only secured mortgage.

Our debt is now entirely unsecured. We ended the quarter with net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA of 5.9 times, essentially in line with last quarter and down from 6.7 times a year ago, and approximately $255 million of liquidity.

Total debt was $723 million at a weighted average interest rate of 4.7%. Finally, turning to guidance, we're raising our 2026 core FFO guidance to a range of $2.11 to $2.14 per diluted share, up from $2.09 to $2.13.

At the midpoint, that represents approximately 14% growth over 2025. We're also raising the low end of our AFFO guidance to a new range of $2.22 to $2.25 per diluted share, up from $2.21 to $2.25.

Key assumptions in our revised guidance include: shopping centers same-property NOI growth of 5% to 6%; investment volume, including commercial loans and structured investments, of approximately $472 million, up from our prior range of $300 million to $400 million; and general and administrative expenses of $21 million to $21.5 million. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session.

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your phone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again.

Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Jay Kornreich of Cantor Fitzgerald.

Your line is open.

Jay Kornreich

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Can you talk just about the general supply-demand fundamentals you're seeing across the portfolio? I guess, are the power centers now currently landlords' market, where you have pricing power, and if so, is that a trend you expect to continue throughout 2027?

John Albright

Thanks, Jay. We're seeing still good activity on the leasing front from really good quality tenants.

I wouldn't say that it's like a mad grab for space or anything like that, but good, consistent demand and the type of tenant you want.

Jay Kornreich

Okay. Then maybe just shifting to the office property in New Mexico.

Just curious if there's any update there for opportunity to start marketing that asset and any updates to timing when a potential sale could happen?

John Albright

Sure. Basically state of New Mexico is now in, so that's great.

We're talking to the other tenant, Fidelity, about kind of what their space needs are going forward, and then waiting for the new administration, the state of New Mexico, to come online next year. Basically next year, we'll kind of basically optimize the property there rather than hastily sell it when it might be leaving some easy money on the table.

Jay Kornreich

Okay. Thank you.

I'll hold the deck.

John Albright

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Erdner of Jones.

Your line is open.

Matthew Erdner

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Thanks for taking the question. I'd like to kind of touch on the two recent acquisitions in Kansas City.

Touched a little bit on why you liked the environment there, but I guess what's the opportunity that you kind of see at Zona Rosa, just the amount that you guys are able to kind of bring online over the next couple of years?

John Albright

The property had been owned by an entity that had foreclosed on it, there wasn't very much outreach on the leasing side. The property has some very high-performing tenants.

It feels we've done this many times before, and think that there's a lot of opportunity on the health and fitness side, on the entertainment side, on restaurant side, and then also have talked to hotel developers about the pad sites. Just really attacking on all sides and given that we bought it at a nice opportunistic current yield, and with all that vacancy opportunity to lease up, we're really really excited about the opportunity there.

Matthew Erdner

That's good to hear. Then, as it relates to kind of the leasing opportunity through '28, it's about 25% of ABR right now.

I guess how much of that is attributable to Zona Rosa and kind of the newer acquisitions, and then, again, just the opportunity to kind of drive spreads higher there?

John Albright

I'll let Phil address that.

Philip Mays

You're asking on the '28 expirations, how much is attributable to Zona Rosa?

Matthew Erdner

Yeah.

Philip Mays

There's not too much in there. What is in there, we feel really good about.

There's the JCPenney's renewal at Rockwall. It's a very, very low rent.

We feel good they'll renew. There's actually Fidelity's renewal, which is in there, which John was talking about earlier at Albuquerque.

They've recently generally right-sized, we feel good about that. Then the other really large one in there is Harkins at Crossroads, which John talked about we've already kind of proactively re-leased that with Crunch Fitness.

Those are the larger ones in there. After that, it's a lot of small shop.

Some have contractual extensions, some don't. That'll be where we'll kind of grow our rents is in those small shop renewals.

Matthew Erdner

Got it. That's helpful.

Thank you, guys.

John Albright

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Stevenson of Huntington.

Your line is now open.

Rob Stevenson

Good morning, guys. How are you thinking about equity funding in the near and intermediate term with the stock now sort of sub-20 at this point?

John Albright

Obviously, we don't think that the stock is at the right price. Now that we've done a lot of investments this year, almost sort of getting close to the market cap of the company.

We're not needing to expect that the stock price be a certain level to raise equity here. We've done enough investments.

We're definitely looking at the recycling side. Can we get premium pricing on some of the assets that are now stabilized and slower-growing?

You'll probably see more of that. We don't really need to rely on the equity price to be a certain level.

Rob Stevenson

Okay. I guess given that comment, John, how are higher rates impacting the demand for some of the assets that you want to sell at this point?

You still seeing decent demand, and the brokers think that you could achieve the pricing? Is it a situation where people have sort of pulled back waiting to see what winds up happening over the next couple of months in terms of moves, etc.?

How would you characterize that today?

John Albright

You still have a large capital base of capital that wants to get back into the space or get into the space as far as the retail shopping centers. They're going to plow through no matter kind of what.

Now, they'll have pricing adjustments based on rates, but it's not going to inhibit the demand, for sure. The demand is there from the right capital, being very core capital.

Of course, there'll be a little pricing adjustment, whether it's 20 probably 25 bps, 30 bps from 6 months ago, something like that, but nothing dramatic.

Rob Stevenson

Okay. Then, Phil, what is the pace of the $5.6 million signed-not-open?

Doesn't sound like Crunch starts until 2028, but when do the big pieces of that $5.6 million start to hit the revenue line for you guys?

Philip Mays

We actually put in our investor presentation there. We schedule it out by year, so that might be helpful.

Of the $5.6 million, about $3.2 comes online in '27, and pretty much all of it's online for '28. We get really the full benefit in '28, a little over half the benefit in '27.

Rob Stevenson

Okay. Then last one from

Philip Mays

That doesn't reflect the leasing at Pompano that happened just after the end of the quarter. That'll be a little more incremental, positive on top of what's in the signed-not-open pipeline currently.

Rob Stevenson

Okay. That $3.2 in '27, is that sort of weighted fairly evenly throughout the year, or is there a big chunk in any specific quarters that we need to be aware of?

Philip Mays

It's right around the middle of the year.

Rob Stevenson

Okay. Then last one for me.

The guidance today, what gets you sort of at the high end? The low end of the guidance range for both core and AFFO is about a penny better than what you did in the third quarter.

The high end of that range is a few pennies higher than that. What's the sort of variable that gets you from the sort of low end to the high end of the guidance range for the year?

Philip Mays

It's a few things. A lot of it's signed-not-open rent commencement.

Some of that could come online late this year, and that would bump us up. That and there's always in the fourth quarter, there's percent rent, right?

We have a significant amount that happens in the fourth quarter. It's really just rent commencement dates, percent rent, and where those shake out in the fourth quarter.

Rob Stevenson

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Appreciate the time.

John Albright

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Kucera of Lucid Capital Markets.

Your line is open.

Craig Kucera

Hey, good morning, guys. I want to circle back to Zona Rosa, which is a pretty interesting acquisition.

I guess you have about 250,000 square feet of vacancy there, and you mentioned you also had 100,000 square feet of underutilized space. Those are independent of each other, correct?

Philip Mays

No, the 100,000 is part of the 250.

Craig Kucera

Okay.

Philip Mays

It's in total, but there's 100 that's just very underutilized where it sits, and not really activated because there's not an anchor to really drive people back there currently. We're working on finding ways to infill and activate that part of the center to get some leasing momentum for that 100,000 specifically.

The 250 includes that, Craig.

Craig Kucera

Okay. That's helpful.

Are you expecting a meaningful amount of CapEx to reposition this acquisition, or is there a lot of low-hanging fruit, maybe like you saw at Carolina Pavilion?

John Albright

There's not a lot of capital needed to do to, basically deferred maintenance or anything. We There definitely is deferred maintenance, but it's not a huge amount.

We're working on all that, landscaping, painting, that sort of thing. The real capital will come with tenants, so, very much revenue-producing sort of capital yielding investment.

Craig Kucera

Right. That That makes sense.

As far as repositioning there, is this a situation where, some of the tenants are paying way below market and you can, kind of replace them with market, or is it really more what you alluded to before, I think, about bringing in like health and fitness and a restaurant, maybe hotels on the pads?

John Albright

It's more about activating the the property to its potential. It's the, there's not any huge mark-to-market.

It's just, a lot of vacancy opportunity.

Craig Kucera

Got it.

John Albright

Missing uses.

Craig Kucera

Okay. That makes sense.

Changing gears, with the $32 million preferred equity investment you made earlier this quarter, are you likely to keep that whole investment, or or sell a portion similar to what you did at Pine for, for some of the higher-yielding investments you have there?

John Albright

That that one we're really lucky to have, and and happy to help out on on the transaction that transpired. It's on a portfolio that we tried to buy.

We we lost on the transaction, but was able to do this preferred investment at a lower basis than where we we were willing to buy the portfolio. We expect that to be a hold.

Craig Kucera

Okay. Phil, is the swap on the 2030 term loan the only swap expiring next year?

Philip Mays

There's one swap maturing. It's on about $100 million, and it rolls up about 180 basis points.

I can't remember, Craig, if that's on the 2030 or the 2032 loan, but either way, it's the 2032 loan, at it's $100 million, and it'll roll up 180 basis points. That's the only one we have changing in '27.

In '28, we got a couple, but they're fairly close to market, there won't be a significant drag in '28 from any swaps expiring.

Craig Kucera

Okay. Just one more for me.

You mentioned the lease termination at Harkins. How much was that fee, and was that recognized in the third quarter or will be recognized this quarter or in the future?

Philip Mays

There was that was really more we just got an early termination option, we actually just in order to get that and have the flexibility to exercise it, on timing that works with Crunch coming in and limiting the downtime, we just actually just gave them a little bit of break in rent. We didn't get any income, and then we got that option in exchange for that break in rent.

Crunch is, well underway of working to get, all their approvals and everything. Then we'll hit that option at that most opportune time to limit the downtime there.

There was no kind of one-time income this quarter related to that.

Craig Kucera

Great. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gaurav Mehta at Alliance Global Partners.

Your line is open.

Gaurav Mehta

Thank you. Good morning.

I wanted to follow up on the $32 million loan that you guys did in 4Q. Why is the yield at 17% higher than than I guess some of the other loans that you've done in the past?

John Albright

Just because the complexity of the transaction. It was fast-moving, needed to be done by a date certain, gave them some flexibility on, when they can kind of repay us.

Expect it to be more of a two-year duration sort of investment. It it was just really, they had to have the the capital by a certain time and didn't have a lot of time to go shop around.

We because we, as as I mentioned before, tried to acquire the portfolio, we had already underwritten it. If they went out to other people that would need time to underwrite it, it would be impossible for them to to have something close in the timing they needed to have it closed.

Gaurav Mehta

Okay. Second question, your commercial loan investments seem like they're 14% of undepreciated assets.

Can you remind us what the target is for the loan investment portfolio?

John Albright

This is basically the level. 15%, I think we've we've mentioned before, so, I I don't anticipate this going higher than the level where it is right now.

Gaurav Mehta

All right. Thank you.

That's all I had.

John Albright

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Massocca of B.

Riley Securities. Your line is open.

John Massocca

Good morning. We've just given some moving pieces, things happening subsequent to quarter end, and your outlook on the capital markets, how are you thinking about leverage currently?

I guess you mentioned it a little bit to one of the earlier questions, but, does that kind of set up for some more maybe systematic dispositions next year, or or are you kind of happy at this level and you're being more opportunistic with sales?

Philip Mays

I'll I'll take the leverage piece, John. At the end of the quarter, we were a little under six times.

With all that activity, I think we go up to maybe six and a half times debt to EBITDA. Then keep in mind, we have a really robust signed-not-open pipeline, we have these pads.

I'm not going to tick it down, a half a turn or anything, but they will incrementally bring it down, 0.2 or so, right? We'd be in the low sixes.

It's a level we're comfortable with, but, that said, we'll be we can always look to recycle, depending on the opportunities we're seeing. On on the market side, I'll let John answer.

John Albright

I think as as I mentioned before, we'll opportunistically recycle if we get the right pricing for some of the assets. I expect something to happen in the next six months on the recycling side, but, yeah, expect a little bit of that.

Then

John Massocca

on the Summit Woods transaction, anything to be aware of, that could be kind of additive there, either kind of, retenanting or releasing, or is it just kind of a very attractive day-one yield for the the quality of asset you purchased?

John Albright

I would say it's the the latter, that, it's a really high quality property with solid tenant quality. There are very below-market leases on that on that property.

The Kohl's and the Lowe's are, really low low rents, almost sort of like a covered land play, if you will. We like the solid nature of the the asset.

John Massocca

Okay. Then on Pompano City Centre, you kind of adding square footage with the new tenant, is there any more opportunities for that with some of the second-floor space if you can activate it, or is that kind of going to be fully utilized post that lease-up?

John Albright

No, we we still have room to go there. There's still opportunity there on on the leasing side, and we're getting really good traction.

We're we're excited about the runway at at Pompano. The Amped expansion is going to do a lot for just driving more energy there.

We're taking taking out They're taking over corridor space, so, expenses that were that we were paying on on sort of dead space, that's going to go away. It's all all, kind of lining up, really well for us.

John Massocca

How much more square footage could kind of be added, either is it quantum of what Amped is doing, or just absolute?

Philip Mays

Yeah. No, the leased at the end of the quarter was low 90s percent, like 92%, 93%.

There's a lot of runway just there, and that's on the existing square feet. Amped took the vast majority of that unfinished space, and for lack of a better way to describe it, it was like enclosed structured parking.

They took 50,000 square feet, and that space was I think right around 60,000 square feet. We had underwritten that at zero.

When we as when we tend to do that to be conservative on our underwriting, John and our head of leasing take it very personal, and they went out and found a creative use for it there. That unfinished space now is largely filled with Amped, but we still have a lot of runway just on the property itself because it's relatively on a relative basis low leased.

John Massocca

I appreciate all that color. That's it for me.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I am showing no further questions at this time.

This concludes the question-and-answer session. Thank you for your participation in today's conference.

This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.