Operator
Welcome to today's Covenant Logistics Group Q4 2025 earnings release and investor conference call. Our host for today's call is Tripp Grant.
At this time, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.
I will now turn the call over to your host, Mr. Grant.
You may begin.
Tripp Grant
Thank you, Ross. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Covenant Logistics Group fourth quarter 2025 conference call.
As a reminder, this call will contain forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please review our SEC filings and most recent risk factors.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. All prepared comments and additional financial information are available on our website at www.covenantlogistics.com/investors.
Joining me today are CEO David Parker, President Paul Bunn, and COO Dustin Koehl. We're going to modify our opening comments from the usual format and address three key areas before covering the usual statistical and segment information.
One, our view on the freight market. Two, the equipment impairment charge and our capital plan.
Three, a small acquisition we made in the fourth quarter. The freight market: we believe the freight market continues to evolve towards equilibrium between shippers and carriers.
In fact, we might be at equilibrium now. During the fourth quarter, spot rates rose meaningfully.
Revenue trends during the first three weeks of January have meaningfully improved compared to the prior year in all business units. We are also experiencing a sharp increase in bid activity with shippers who are interested in securing capacity contractually.
Currently, we have also secured a few low to mid-single digit rate increases that take effect during the first quarter within our Expedited fleet, and anticipate additional increases across both Expedited and Dedicated to take effect early in the second quarter. Based on regulatory changes, cost inflation, and the amount of insurance and claims risk inherent in the industry, we would not be surprised for industry-wide driver and truck capacity to continue to decline, perhaps materially.
At the same time, most trucking cycles are led by demand. In our view, inventory restocking, tax stimulus, and corporate earnings are biased in favor of improved demand.
Equipment charge and capital plan: operating a safe, fuel-efficient, late-model fleet requires constant cycling of equipment to keep operating costs down and driver satisfaction up. With intentional fleet reductions and declining used equipment values in 2025, we deferred some trades, stacked up deliveries, and have too much underutilized equipment.
To improve our operations and balance sheet, we have moved a group of assets to held-for-sale status and lowered our expectation on disposition prices. Since our current size asset-based fleet is not generating the desired return on capital, we will not replace all the units disposed.
We expect a modestly smaller fleet at the end of 2026 and only $40 million to $50 million of net CapEx for the year. Within our asset-based fleets, we expect the agricultural-related business within our Dedicated segment to grow, and the other fleets serving more commoditized freight to shrink or remain stable through our weed-and-feed approach.
Overall, our goal is to reduce balance sheet leverage and improve return on capital. The acquisition: during the fourth quarter, we acquired the assets of a small truckload brokerage company.
The business, which we will operate under the name Star Logistics Solutions, has two niche customer bases: state and federal government emergency management departments, which represents an episodic and highly profitable disaster response capability that scales quickly to address hurricanes and other natural disasters, and two, high-service consumer packaged goods companies, which affords leverage to general commodity freight market cycles that our asset-based truckload operations lack. With synergies, we expect Star to be accretive to earnings during the first half of 2026.
With that background, I will move on to the quarter's statistical review. Year-over-year highlights for the quarter include: consolidated freight revenue increased by 7.8% or approximately $19.5 million to $270.6 million.
Consolidated adjusted operating income shrank by 39.4% to $10.9 million, primarily as a result of margin compression in our Expedited, Managed Freight, and Warehousing segments, partially offset with improvement to dedicated operating income within our Dedicated segment. Our net indebtedness as of December 31st increased by $76.9 million to $296.6 million compared to December 31st, 2024, yielding an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.3 times and debt-to-capital ratio of 42.3% as a result of executing our share repurchase program and acquisition-related payments.
The average age of our tractors at December 31st increased to 24 months compared to 20 months a year ago as a result of year-over-year reductions to our high-mileage Expedited fleet and growth in our less capital-intensive Dedicated fleet. On an adjusted basis, return on average invested capital was 5.6% versus 8.1% in the prior year.
Now, providing a little more color on the performance of the individual business segments: the Expedited segment reported an adjusted operating ratio of 97.2 for the quarter, a performance that did not meet our expectations even in light of a softer freight environment. Results were partially impacted by the US government shutdown, which persisted for nearly half the quarter.
Despite these external challenges, the segment did not perform to our operational standards. Accordingly, we will continue our disciplined approach to fleet optimization by reducing fleet size and focusing on higher yield freight.
Looking ahead, we anticipate fleet capacity will adjust modestly in response to market conditions. As the market improves, our strategic priorities remain enhancing margins through targeted rate increases, exiting less profitable business, and onboarding more profitable opportunities.
Dedicated's 92.2 adjusted operating ratio was the best for any quarter during the year. We were pleased by how this segment improved its results each quarter throughout the year and are excited about the momentum we are taking with us into 2026.
Dedicated grew the fleet by 90 average tractors or approximately 6.3% compared to the prior year as we have continued to win new business and specialize in high-service niches within that segment. Going forward, we plan to focus our efforts on continuing to grow these high-service niches and reduce certain of our fleet that is exposed to more commoditized end markets where returns are not justified.
Managed Freight experienced significant improvement to freight revenue in the quarter as a result of the Star Logistics Solutions acquisition that occurred in October, but margins were compressed as a result of the growing cost to secure quality brokerage capacity. Over the longer term, our strategy is to grow and diversify this segment.
Given the asset-light nature of this business, we note that an operating margin in the mid-single digits generates an acceptable return in capital given the asset-light nature of this segment. During the quarter, our Warehousing segment successfully launched operations with a key new customer, resulting in a 4.6% increase in freight revenue, or $1.1 million compared to the same period last year.
However, adjusted operating income declined by $1.6 million, primarily due to increased start-up costs and operational inefficiencies associated with onboarding the new customer, as well as higher labor expenses, including overtime at other warehouse locations to manage peak volume demands. Looking ahead, we remain committed to driving organic growth within the segment and are focused on enhancing our operating income margin with a target of reaching high single digits.
Our minority investment in TEL contributed pretax net income of $3.1 million for the quarter compared to $3.0 million in the prior year period. The impact of compressed leasing margins, soft used equipment market, and incremental bad debt expense in the quarter place continued pressure on TEL's pretax net income.
Although TEL's overall business and balance sheet remain strong, exiting capacity from the general freight environment is expected to continue to impact them over the short term. Regarding our outlook for the future: we remain optimistic about improving freight fundamentals, our ability to be more efficient with our equipment, and capture operating leverage and improve financial results in 2026.
The improvements are likely to come later in the year, with the first quarter being impacted by seasonality, extreme weather, a still developing freight market situation, and potential margin squeeze in Managed Freight. The last few years have been characterized by acquisitions, dispositions, and share buybacks as we have revamped the company.
We have a stronger, more stable business and have recently added a piece that restores a measure of freight cycle upside. 2026 is all about execution, and we are hard at work to get that done.
Thank you for your time, and we will now open the call for any questions.
Operator
If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad now. You will be placed into the queue in the order received.
Please be prepared to ask your question when prompted. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your phone now.
Our first question comes from Jason Seidl from TD Cowen. Please go ahead, Jason.
Jason Seidl
Thank you, Operator Ross. Good morning, guys.
Appreciate the time. I guess my first question is, you mentioned in your Expedited segment, you're getting, low to mid-single digit price increases that are pushing through.
Is that the average now, or is that just you're starting to see a few of those roll through? I guess what are your expectations as we move through the bid cycle?
David Parker
Jason, this is David. It's both.
The answer is both, and that is, is that it is the average is kind of around that 3.5% number for the first three weeks of January. It is something that's continuing to build some momentum.
Far, I will tell you that I'm not disappointed at how the conversations are going. I'm not ready to say that the number's going to be 3.5% for all over, but the customers are very open.
I think the customers realize that the industry has done horrible on rates for the last four years, and maybe there's some pity out there from our customers. I'm pretty optimistic about what the opportunities are on rates.
I can only tell you that as it starts, and depending upon what the economy does will depend upon what the numbers end up being, because if we get 3.5% now, and we're being very upfront with our customers. We're being very upfront, very good conversations.
Hopefully we can go back in June. Those kind of things.
That is where we're at for the first three weeks, and we still got a ways to go to be able to say this is a trend, but I like the first three weeks of what we've done.
Paul Bunn
Yeah.
Tripp Grant
I would add to that, I would add a little bit to that on the rates from existing customers is one thing, but we're also starting to win business at higher rates. One of our themes for this quarter has been capital allocations, and I think we're going to have some opportunities to redistribute capital to some of this newer higher performing businesses with customers that perhaps we can't get the appropriate rate with.
It's not just pure rate on existing customers. I think that, one of the bright sides of what we're seeing, and we said in the release or the opening comments, was that we are starting to win business at pretty decent price.
You go back 12 months ago to win business, you were having to price it at a break-even or a slight loss just to win anything.
Paul Bunn
I agree, Tripp. To a year a year ago, 24 months ago, new business was coming in at even to less.
Now new business, all new business can replace business that's less profitable.
Jason Seidl
Now, it feels like there's a lot more bids now than there was let's say a year ago in the marketplace. Are people just trying to pull forward the bid because they're worried about maybe how the supply-demand market's going to look for truckload, call it six months from now?
David Parker
It's both of those, Jason, that our bids in the month of January are up 33% over fourth quarter, up 33%. That is something that is twofold: one, they're trying to get ahead of it, and that's okay, I don't blame them, I'd be doing the same thing.
They're trying to get ahead of it, as well as a lot of this bids that we're getting is brand-new customers. They don't like what they're seeing or one, they're I believe what I am sensing, Jason, three weeks into it, is that they're concerned about capacity.
Those are the two things that I look as it relates to the bids. Here's what I'd say: they're concerned about capacity, and I will tell you cargo theft is ticked up a little bit in the last 4, 5 months.
It was really bad in 2023, early 2024. A lot of people did a lot of things, and I would say it was beat down pretty good for two years.
What I'm seeing people say, especially, "I need a high-value program. I need assets."
More in the past 6 to 8 weeks than in the last 6 to 8 months or 16 months.
Jason Seidl
That's great color. I got two more quick ones, and I'll turn it over to the next person here.
On the warehousing side, it seems like your revenue's up, obviously profits not, but it's there were some start-up costs. Should we expect that sort of
David Parker
It'll get better.
Jason Seidl
It'll get better. My question in terms of the warehouse space bookings, it looks like Prologis had some positive commentary on that.
I'm just wondering what you're seeing out there in terms of the bookings, and then I got a balance sheet question after that.
David Parker
Here's what I'd say on the warehousing side, Jason: everybody remembers, it '21, '22 tightest we've ever seen, a lot of overbuilding in the warehouse space, and then it got pretty it'd been pretty loose '23, '24, first part of '25. I will agree with you, it's things are tighter now than they've been in the last 24 months from a warehousing standpoint, but nowhere near as tight as they were in '21 and '22.
To your first question, yeah, some, we took on two big accounts in '25, and one of them was in was in November, and it was the start-up, and so that put a pretty good drag on the fourth quarter. Here's what I'd say: Q1 will be better than Q4, and Q2 of this year will be better than Q1.
It'll incrementally get better every quarter.
Jason Seidl
That makes sense. Then Tripp, obviously you guys just made an acquisition of a company that looks like it diversifies the business mix a bit in terms of getting more governmental relief contracts and everything else.
How should we think about you guys going to market for the remainder of '25, given the balance sheet that you have now and what's your level of comfort in taking that leverage ratio up?
Tripp Grant
Yeah. I think you meant for
Jason Seidl
'26,
Tripp Grant
but our first
Jason Seidl
'26,
Tripp Grant
yeah. That's all right.
I make that mistake often. What I would say is, our leverage today after this acquisition is a little bit above where we would kind of want it longer term.
We haven't been public about a point or a range or anything, but we want to be kind of moderately leveraged. I think when you think about some of the excess equipment that we've got that hasn't sold that we expect to sell in the first quarter, the new acquisition that we got in October, I think that pushes us to a point where I think we'll start to see it improve.
The leverage ratio improve starting in the first quarter. I think it'll improve sequentially with our capital plan.
I think about it like this, obviously in the in our in our script and in our press release, we're pretty optimistic about 2026. Future acquisitions require, well, any acquisition requires a lot of work, and I think our priority for 2026 is going to be to integrate what we got today with the Star acquisition and prepare ourselves to take advantage for any opportunities that we get, which we're already seeing.
I think there'll be more to come with this shift in the market. I think there will be a lot of disruption with cost of capital deficiencies with other peers, and I think that we're going to be prime and ready to take advantage of new opportunities, bring on new business, and we've got to be prepared to move and allocate our capital as efficiently as we can.
Doing an acquisition in 2026 in the midst of all this could be, beneficial long-term, but I also think it creates a distraction. Our primary focuses are reducing our debt, providing flexibility, and taking advantage of this market swing as it develops.
Jason Seidl
Appreciate all that color, Tripp, and you guys try to stay warm out there.
Tripp Grant
All right. Stay
Dustin Koehl
Thank you, Jason.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead, Jeff.
Jeff Kauffman
Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody.
A lot going on this quarter. Can you differentiate and I appreciate your early comments on the equipment change moving equipment to for sale status and then kind of taking an adjustment to what your expectation is for sale price.
Is this going to lead to an unusually large loss on sale in the first quarter, or an unusually large gain on sale as you get rid of some of this equipment?
Tripp Grant
No. Jeff, this is Tripp.
I don't think it's going to be a large loss or a large gain. What we did with that equipment is basically mark to market, which is an accounting requirement as we pulled that equipment early and as it's specialized, probably at a time when capacity's coming out of the market and the market's being flooded with excess used equipment, it's just difficult.
There's not much of an appetite for used equipment. We marked it down to a number that we considered was fair value based on our channels of how we kind of dispose of our equipment.
I think that going forward in Q1, we don't depreciate our equipment down to taking losses historically or taking gains historically. We try to do it to where that noise is pulled out of it.
I would expect kind of status quo from a go-forward depreciation standpoint. I would also kind of factor in flattish depreciation sequentially, on an adjusted basis from Q4 to Q5.
It's been flat for the pretty much, all year long. If you look at our gains and losses on sale of equipment throughout the year, I think we're at a brace- almost a break-even.
We may have lost about $300,000. We're not going to there are some things short term where we may have to accelerate depreciation on some equipment coming out of service in 2026.
We're watching the market, but it's a really hard thing to do because the market moves pretty quickly. I overall we're going to have fewer equipment sitting on the fence depreciating, too.
I think what you're going to have is a wash. On a cents per mile basis you may see a little bit of an increase, but on an absolute dollar basis I think sequentially you'll see flat depreciation and no real big variance to gain, loss in the quarter, next quarter.
Jeff Kauffman
Question for Paul and David. Thank you, Tripp.
Can you help us understand I guess two things. Number one, where should we be thinking about fleet count for Expedited and Dedicated, post the 4Q adjustments?
Then as we integrate Star into the new business, not all of that's going to be managed freight, there's going to be an element of that that affects Expedited. Will that require an equipment increase as a result of that?
How should we think about the Star revenues basing across your divisions?
David Parker
I would say on the Star revenue across the divisions, one, it won't require any increase. We'll be able to, any of that business that flows over to the team side, we'll be able to handle with the teams we have.
Then, I would say revenue in our brokerage space, you remember we lost a customer that we disclosed in the third quarter. I think our revenue in the Managed Freight space will be flat to up, flat to up every quarter going forward with the acquisition.
As it relates to fleet count, I think we'll see. I think your Expedited count will kind of trend down slightly, maybe 25 trucks a quarter-ish kind of numbers as we try to optimize.
There's some really good freight in there, and then there's some freight that just doesn't make sense for the capital that it takes to run the teams. Strategically we're trying to push that freight over to Managed Freight.
If it economically doesn't make sense to run on the assets, we're trying to get the contracts square to move that freight over and run it on Managed Freight. On the Dedicated side of the business, I think you'll continue to see us try to weed and feed the non-ag business, continue to have some work to do there.
I think you'll continue to see us grow the ag business. That truck count will probably, I would say, stay flattish, but I think we'll continue to improve the margin profile in that space.
Does that help you?
Jeff Kauffman
Very much so. Then one other question.
Looking at the metrics, it look like the rev per mile ex-fuel dropped by a fair amount in Expedited, and I'm assuming some of that might be related to the government shutdown and the lack of military business. Yes,
David Parker
it was. It was all related to that.
Jeff Kauffman
We'd treat the fourth quarter more as an anomaly and kind of go back to second, third quarter or what's Okay.
David Parker
Yeah. There's probably a couple OR points, Jeff, that the couple OR points and you can back it probably reconciles back to the exact cents per mile of rate you're looking for that related to the government business.
Jeff Kauffman
Then switching gears to Managed Freight, I think we understand what happened with spot rates and gross margins in that business. You mentioned new customer contracts coming in on your contract business.
How long do you think it will take to get the Expedited freight margins back to where you want them to be? How long will it take to adjust this pricing to customers for the new reality of the market on the Managed Freight side?
David Parker
What you just said there, the statement you just made, Jeff, is the answer. That is, how long will it take to get the operating margins back to what is acceptable to us, and it's going to be through rate increases.
We can we're always looking to try to cut costs, and we will continue to try to cut costs, but at the end of the day, us and the industry, we got to have whatever number you want to use, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, we got to have percentages of increase to improve our margins. Again, you heard at the beginning I was happy about where we're at the first three weeks of January, and I hope that that continues as we continue to get into our larger accounts.
As we're bringing on brand-new business that's probably 7% to 8% higher in rates than our existing. Though that's kind of our formula.
I like to see that the 3.5% continues to maintain right now, and then start climbing in March, start climbing in April, because if you remember, second quarter is a big quarter for us on rate increases for some of the larger customers. Jeff, I'll give you an anecdotal point just with these storms.
I was on the phone three times last night and twice already this morning, and we're covering some of that with our teams, we're covering some of it with I'd say the bulk of it with Managed Freight. We're getting some really, really good rates on that, but that capacity out there is crazy tight and demanding a lot of money.
It is way tighter than it's been any of the, first quarters the past few years. I would say this second storm coming in, we're having to ask our customers for more than we did last week this time.
Guess what? The carriers are asking us for more.
It is it's tight out there right now. That and we all know that's spot and storm activity, but I think that's what's going to roll on over.
The customers are starting to see, to move some of this stuff we're going to have to pay a little more.
Jeff Kauffman
All right, I guess the takeaway thought is a lot going on right now, but this is more of a kind of clear the deck for future opportunities quarter. Gentlemen, thank you.
Thank you very much,
David Parker
and
Jeff Kauffman
best of luck.
Operator
Thanks, Jeff. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Reed Seay from Stephens. Please go ahead, Reed.
Reed Seay
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question this morning.
I had a quick clarifier from a previous question. On the Managed Freight revenue, you talked about being flat to up through 2026.
Is that on a sequential or on a year-over-year basis?
David Parker
I think on a sequential basis. I think if you look at Q4 Managed Freight, the $80 million in freight revenue included the basically 2 months of the new 2.5 months of the new acquisition plus some peak.
Then I think you'll see it fall back a little bit in Q1, but I think you'll start to see that grow to where you're going to be. The biggest question is going to be how we look I would say in the third and fourth quarter if we can grow it like we think we can, but I think you're going to be somewhere below where we landed in Q4 for Q1 of 2026, and then you're going to start to see incremental improvement in top-line revenue after that, to just say average $80 million a quarter plus, depending on whatever we do in the third any incremental business we do in the third and fourth quarters.
Reed Seay
Got it. Then on the Dedicated and Expedited side, you mentioned in Expedited in 4Q, you had some headwind from government that you called out in 3Q as expected.
How should we think about maybe your margin sequentially from 4Q to 1Q? Then I guess what your goal would be for 2026 as maybe you have some stabilization of demand within that Expedited and as you continue to improve your mix within that Dedicated segment?
David Parker
Yeah.
Tripp Grant
I do expect sequential improvement from Expedited in the fourth quarter, and I would caveat that by saying that from the fourth quarter of '25 to the first quarter of '26. I would caveat that with saying that there is a looming potential for an additional US government shutdown, which could negatively impact us.
There is a looming potential for additional severe weather that could negatively impact us. All things being equal, I think with AA
Paul Bunn
truck,
Tripp Grant
yeah, with our government business, firing on all cylinders for all three months of the first quarter of 2026, I think we have a really good shot, combined with some rate increases from a select group of customers, we have a really good shot at improving our operating ratio in that segment during the first quarter compared to the fourth of 2025. It'd be hard to say, maybe 150 to 200 basis points.
It's kind of where I'm looking at it, but it's early in the quarter, and I haven't even seen anything to suggest that that is realistic in terms of how January's numbers- I'm just seeing top-line revenue, but in conditions like these costs can be up even though revenue's up. Still a lot to learn, but I'm hopeful that we can improve it pretty meaningfully in a sequential and, in a soft quarter.
Q1 is our softest quarter. You've got drivers that take a while to come off of the new year, and it just even without weather, it takes a little while to get started.
Generally, if you can get some good weather in February, you can start to make headway, and March is typically a really good operational month. We're just hopeful for that.
Then what was your question on Dedicated? It
Reed Seay
it was similar in terms of what margin progression you would expect throughout 2026. I think Tripp answered it saying you expected some sequential improvement through the year.
Tripp Grant
Yep, that's right.
Reed Seay
I guess last one real quick. I appreciate you entertaining some near-term questions.
Dedicated and Expedited you're making a lot of moves to improve the business here into the revenue quality. What long-term would you target for your margin profile of both of these businesses if these initiatives continue and they play out as you expect?
David Parker
I tell you, I won't be happy until Expedited is in the 80s, and I think that Dedicated is 88 to 90 is kind of where I think Dedicated is going to go, and I think Expedited is going to be in the 80s. Now, when we get there, I don't know, Reed, but that's where our goal, and that's where I expect it to be at.
Reed Seay
Awesome, thanks for the color, guys.
Operator
Our next question comes from Scott Group from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead, Scott.
Scott Group
Hey, thanks. Good morning.
I want to just take a step back. David, 3 months ago on this call, you got really excited about sort of what was happening in the market with supply and regulations and all that sort of stuff.
I guess 3 months later, how you feeling? Are you feeling more convicted in this?
Last what, any more data points in terms of how many of the drivers you think have already exited, just?
David Parker
Yeah. Yes, I'm absolutely much more excited right now than I was 3 months ago, and I was pretty excited back then.
What I saw back then just continued to build, and I just think I just really believe, guys, that we are on the beginning stages of the trucking industry getting back to where it needs to be at. I see a lot of green shoots.
Is it January? Yes.
Do I have some trucks I want to run downstairs and get loaded? Yes.
I want to tell you, the green shoots are plentiful. It's all around, from a standpoint of the bids being up, getting new business at higher rates.
Number one, getting business. Number two, getting that business at higher rates.
We've won some great business this week that I'm excited about just the last 48 hours, but that's a side note. The bids being up, and as I look at capacity is absolutely coming out of the market.
I see it through our Managed Freight, and all of us truckers, because our margins are not where we want them, but that's expected, as we all know, from a standpoint that the Managed Freight broker trucks are going to demand more before we get it from the customers. We will get it from the customers if that continues, but we're 3 months into that.
Right now as we speak, we will start running with that about increasing the pricing on that. As I look, and there's an interesting stat, I don't even know if anybody has looked at this, but we know that DOT, which I think Duffy is the best DOT person we ever had.
I had the fortune to meet with him in December, and I told him that. In my 53 years of doing this, he's the best DOT person I've ever seen.
As I look at these illegal CDL schools that we all read about and know about and are true, in 2019, there were 19,000 of them. They went up during the 4 years of the Biden administration, they went from 19 to 39,000 schools.
6,000 to 39,000 schools. No, time-out.
Time-out. 19,000 up to 39,000, and now DOT has taken out 6,000 of them.
We're at 33,000. I look at some of the things that they are doing from the and y'all all know this, the English proficiency.
We are sensing that not only in our Managed Freight, but we're sensing that in our customers, and I believe that's one of the reasons why our customers, that we're winning more freight at higher rates. It's one of the reasons our rates are up 3.5%.
It's another reason I believe that we will continue to get our rates up is because of capacity. Because a side note, as we all know, do I think that GDP is going to be stronger in the next three quarters, four quarters than it was the previous four quarters?
The answer is yes. I look at 2026, and I look at second quarter, 3.4% GDP.
Fourth The third quarter is 4.3% GDP. Fourth quarter, what's the number?
4% to 5% it's going to be with the government being shut down 1 month? Let's just say 4% when it comes out.
I think there's going to be some 5% GDP growth in 2026, and I just go back the last couple of years before that and we were at 1.9%, we were at 2.3%. We're doubling GDP, at the same time we all know capacity is coming out.
Is it 1% or 4%? I don't know.
I do know 2% moves the market. 2% up, 2% down in capacity moves the market.
Trucks are coming out, and so as I look at not as many drivers are leaving, trucks are coming out, it's going to be harder to get into the industry, GDP's going to grow, anyway, a lot of green shoots, Scott. Did I answer your question?
Scott Group
I think so. Okay.
I guess my other question is, you guys have Expedited has made a big mix shift over the last bunch of years to LTL. What are you seeing from that sort of end market?
Does the shift to LTL sort of limit some of the upside, the leverage on the upside? Just how does that LTL mix shift, what are you seeing LTL right now and then how does that mix shift impact how we should think about your upside operating leverage?
Dustin Koehl
Here's what I would say: we did shift a lot to LTL, Scott, especially in '21, '22, '23, even '24. I would say that number reduced by a pretty good bit last year as the volumes and tonnages in LTLs went down as, you've seen and reported on a lot of those.
I would say, maybe something we weren't as vocal about, but the LTL market, we kind of right-sized our LTL exposure last year just with what happened in the LTL market. It's a lot less today than it was in 2023.
That said, our LTL customers are pretty steady right now, but, they're not doing as good as they want to do. David, anything?
David Parker
No, I agree with that. We also, though, in lieu of that, is that we've gone to the market with a lot of of our air freight customers, and so I'm seeing a lot of that is building.
I just think, Scott, at the end of the day, whether it's our LTL portfolio, or whether it's our air freight portfolio, freight forwarder portfolio that we do a lot of business with because of our technology and high-security program that we've got, it's all about pricing. When pricing is available to us to be able to pass on, you'll see returns coming back down, or ORs coming back down, margins, whatever.
Scott Group
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Appreciate it.
Dustin Koehl
Thanks, Scott.
Operator
Our next question comes from Dan Moore from Baird. Please go ahead, Dan.
Dan Moore
Hey, guys. How's it going?
David Parker
Hey, Dan.
Dustin Koehl
Doing well, Dan. Cup-
Dan Moore
Couple of quick questions or or at least one question. I think a lot of questions are being asked around this idea of how much inherent flexibility you have in the model to respond to, what could be, a better market.
A lot of the things you've kind of addressed on the call a few moments ago with Scott's question, just in terms of, fundamentals that are starting to to show themselves to be better. The big question is what if demand recovers in '26 because of tax rebates, because of a variety of other potential catalysts?
How how do you pivot as an organization and and as an enterprise to take full advantage of that? My question relates to the following: if demand gets better in April, May, or June, how much what's your go-to-market strategy in a market environment where where there's an actual uplift in demand?
What changes in that market relative to what we've seen here over the last 3 or 4 months, which is a fairly unique supply narrative, right? Thank you.
David Parker
Dan, I think the first couple of quarters and when that happens, whether we're in the process, maybe we're at home plate, we're getting ready to hit the ball to run to first base, and we still got to go second, third, and fourth, second, third, and home. I think that when that happens, I think what you will see for the industry, I know you'll see it from us, but I think it's the industry, is that it's time to reclaim some of the profits that we've given away for the last 4 years.
It's not like I'm interested in running out here and buying 200 trucks to say, "Let's just do what we've all done, and that is throw a lot of capacity at it." I want to get my rates up to acceptable numbers, get my Expedited down into the 80s, get my Dedicated into the high 80s or 90 kind of number, and let my Managed Freight be able to take over whatever the leftover is there to be able to continue to grow it.
I would tell you that for the first two quarters when that day does happen, I think you're going to see getting healthy once again as the industry. That would be my goal and the flexibility that we'll have when the market turns.
Dan Moore
Maybe same song, different verse. What percentage of the book, the total enterprise book, renews in the first quarter, what percent in the second, what percent in the third?
In a market environment that gets better, would that look different? Would you be taking a second drink?
David Parker
Yes. There's two things.
I will tell you, number one, second quarter's a heavy quarter for us as I think about our poultry and as I think about our Expedited in particular those two segments of our business as it has been always. There's no doubt that we've got customers that have treated us correctly even at lower rates, and we had to be competitive in the rates over the last 4 years.
If they contracted out for 20 loads a week, they've done a good job of giving us the 20 loads a week. We will abide by that.
If we just did a bid this month and we agreed upon rates, then it'll be next January before we're going to go back to those customers. I would tell you that 40% of the customers are that.
60% of the customers will be taking two or three rate increases. Ones that thought they were going to give us 20 loads a week and they gave you 7 and they took advantage of the market and we weren't getting our volumes, we will be there 14 times, loving them and thanking them and, God blessing them, but we got to have more money.
That's probably 60% of our business, if that gives you any idea.
Dan Moore
Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
David Parker
Thanks, Dan.
Operator
Gentlemen, at this time there are no further questions.
Paul Bunn
All right. We'd like to thank everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to talking again next quarter.
Thank you.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.
You may now disconnect.