FIBRA Macquarie Mexico

FIBRA Macquarie Mexico

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Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 24, 2025

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Operator

Good morning, and welcome to FIBRA Macquarie's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call and Webcast. My name is Rob, and I'll be your operator for this call.

[Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference call over to Nikki Sacks. Please go ahead.

Nikki Sacks

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining FIBRA Macquarie's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast.

Today's call will be led by Simon Hanna, our Chief Executive Officer; and Andrew McDonald-Hughes, our CFO. Before I turn the call over to Simon, I'd like to remind everyone that this presentation is proprietary, and all rights are reserved.

The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

Our actual results, performance, prospects or opportunities could differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements after the completion of this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Additionally, on this conference call, we may refer to certain non-IFRS measures as well as to U.S.

dollars, which are U.S. dollar equivalent amounts, unless otherwise specified.

As usual, we've prepared supplementary materials that we may reference during the call. If you've not already done so, I would encourage you to visit our website at fibramacquarie.com and download these materials.

A link to the materials can be found under the Investors, Events and Presentations tab. And with that, it is my pleasure to hand the call over to FIBRA Macquarie's Chief Executive Officer, Simon Hanna.

Simon?

Simon Hanna

Thank you, Nikki, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to share that we delivered another solid quarter of financial and operating performance with record-breaking results across key metrics.

At the same time, we executed on both strategic and opportunistic initiatives that create value for our certificate holders and continue to position us for sustainable growth. The third quarter showcased the strength of our business model, starting at the top line.

For the quarter, we achieved record consolidated revenues, up 8.4% in underlying U.S. dollar terms over the prior year.

This momentum translated through to our quarterly U.S. dollar AFFO, which increased an impressive 6.6% annually.

[ AFFO ], our quarterly distribution reflects a significant 17% increase from last year, all whilst maintaining a comfortable and prudent payout ratio. Turning to our industrial portfolio.

We continue to see strong performance amidst a subdued market backdrop with average rental rates increasing 6.8% year-over-year. Notably, we achieved another quarter of double-digit renewal spreads, 17% on negotiated leases with high quarterly retention of almost 90%.

Our full year 2025 performance continues to shape up rather well, perhaps best demonstrated by the 6.1% increase in U.S. dollar same-store NOI year-to-date.

So in summary, we are very satisfied with the sustained momentum enjoyed from our industrial portfolio through to today, and we expect that momentum to carry through to the fourth quarter, providing for a strong finish to the year. Moving to our capital allocation and asset recycling initiatives.

We had an active quarter closing on a number of transactions. I'm excited with the continued growth of our Mexico City footprint with the acquisition of a prime 250,000 square foot logistics facility.

We acquired the property through a sale and leaseback for $35 million, leased to a leading global consumer company under a 3-year U.S. dollar-denominated contract.

It not only provides 2025 NOI and AFFO contribution, but also positions us to capture embedded real rental rate growth. This acquisition exemplifies our thoughtful approach to capital allocation.

In this case, we secured a scarce well-located infill asset that enhances our portfolio quality, while providing visible earnings and NAV accretion. We're optimistic about repeating this type of success in other deal opportunities under our review, alongside pursuing additional strategic land investments in our pipeline.

We also continue to selectively pursue asset recycling initiatives. And during the third quarter, we sold a vacant industrial property in Chihuahua City for $14 million, representing a 30% premium to book value.

This transaction demonstrates our commitment to active portfolio management, allowing us to accretively recycle capital into attractive opportunities like the Mexico City acquisition, I just mentioned. Turning to our retail portfolio.

We also delivered strong results and achieved a post-pandemic record occupancy of 93.6%. Rising occupancy and rental rates contributed to annual NOI growth of 4.1%, essentially reaching record levels of operating cash flow.

We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the operating performance of our retail portfolio and expect the medium-term growth trends to continue. Looking at the broader market environment.

While we acknowledge the ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, we also remain confident in Mexico's strategic position within North American supply chains. The long-term fundamentals that have driven Mexico's manufacturing growth over the past decades remain firmly intact, including high-quality labor, proximity to major U.S.

markets and continued trade advantages. Notwithstanding the evolving geopolitical landscape, our high-quality portfolio, internalized platform and strategic market positioning, enables us to continue to deliver strong results and capitalize on growth opportunities.

It is also worth mentioning our unique vertically integrated platform gives us, amongst other benefits privileged access to market intelligence and allows us to respond swiftly to changing conditions. This positioning, combined with our ability to capture embedded rental growth allows us to continue delivering value to certificate holders, while building a long-term portfolio resilience.

Before turning the call over to Andrew, I want to highlight our ongoing commitment to sustainability. We are proud of achieving 3 green stars in our 2025 credit assessment, including a score of 94 points for the development benchmark, exceeding our peers on a regional and global basis.

We're also taking this opportunity to publish our annual ESG report that is now available on our website, which provides a comprehensive overview of our sustainability initiatives and performance. Andrew, over to you.

Andrew McDonald-Hughes

Thank you, Simon. I'm pleased to report another quarter of strong financial performance that reflects both the quality of our portfolio and the effectiveness of our capital allocation strategy.

For the third quarter, we delivered AFFO of USD 29.7 million, representing a solid 6.6% increase year-over-year and demonstrated our continued ability to grow earnings on a per certificate basis. Our balance sheet remains exceptionally well positioned.

During the quarter, we successfully completed the refinancing and expansion of our sustainability-linked credit facility. This USD 375 million facility comprises a $150 million 4-year term loan and a $225 million 3-year revolving credit facility.

The transaction delivered multiple strategic benefits. Firstly, it enhanced our liquidity position to approximately USD 625 million, providing substantial financial flexibility to fund growth initiatives.

Second, it reduced our weighted average cost of debt to approximately 5.5%, while extending our debt maturities. And third, the sustainability-linked features align our financing strategy with our ESG objectives through green building certification targets with the sustainability-linked portion of our drawn debt now representing 68%.

As of September 30, we maintain a prudent debt profile being 92% fixed rate with our CNBV regulatory debt to total asset ratio standing at 33.2% and a robust debt service coverage ratio of 4.6x. Embedded firepower stands at approximately USD 500 million, whilst managing to a 35% LTV ratio, including the potential recycling of our retail portfolio.

Turning to our guidance. We are reaffirming our FY '25 AFFO per certificate guidance to a range of MXN 2.8 to MXN 2.85 and our FY '25 AFFO guidance in underlying U.S.

dollar terms to a range of $115 million to $119 million, representing annual growth of up to 5%. We are also reaffirming our cash distribution guidance for FY '25 of MXN 2.45 per certificate.

This represents a 16.7% increase in peso terms and translates to an expected FY '25 AFFO payout ratio of approximately 87% based on our guidance midpoint, representing a well-covered distribution. This guidance assumes stable market conditions and no material deterioration of the geopolitical landscape or Mexico's key trading relationships, including the potential implementation of tariffs.

Looking ahead, our strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and disciplined approach to capital allocation position us well to navigate market uncertainties, while selectively pursuing growth opportunities that create long-term value for our certificate holders. In closing, I want to recognize the exceptional work of our entire team.

Their dedication and expertise continue to drive our operational excellence and strategic execution. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the phone lines for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Andre Mazini with Citigroup.

André Mazini

Yes. So my question is around the potential economic deceleration Mexico is supposed to be having now in the second half of 2025.

A lot of talk on that among investors and media. So I wanted to understand if you're feeling that this economic deceleration in your conversation with tenants, maybe splitting between the 3 tenant types, industrial light manufacturing, industrial logistics and the retail tenants as well.

Simon Hanna

Yes. Thanks, Andre.

Thanks for the question. Yes, I guess it's a bit of a dynamic backdrop out there.

As you can appreciate, really where we're much more correlated with the U.S. GDP, U.S.

economy more so than Mexico, and that's obviously going to be where most of the activity will basically drive outcomes for us. When we break it down between those 3 categories, look, I'd say, in general, for industrial light manufacturing, fair to say that our volumes production is slightly off compared to last year.

When you look at auto parts production, it's off around sort of 7% compared to last year. So I'd say nothing that's fundamentally causing a problem there from a demand perspective, maybe a slightly lower utilization.

But in general, sort of, I'd say, steady demand backdrop and something which we expect to prevail regardless of that Mexican -- Mexican economy dynamic, more so just to do with how trends continue out of the U.S. So that will very much then link into the logistics part of industrial, at least for the business-to-business, where we have most of our exposure.

It will be correlated more or less with the trend on light manufacturing. So again, I'd say for both manufacturing and the B2B logistics going pretty steady, and I think the outlook is steady as well.

Obviously, the name of the game there is really USMCA as a real catalyst to change that demand environment probably heading towards the second half of next year. Retail, yes, definitely more sort of linked to Mexican economy fundamentals.

But I'd say the consumer remains in pretty good health. We're seeing good employment, wage numbers, et cetera.

general foot traffic and activity in the shopping centers is we've been happy with that. You would have seen some of the encouraging metrics come through the quarter, record occupancy, rising rental rates, same-store were up about 5% year-over-year at the NOI level.

So I'd say generally good conditions there. Cinema is continuing to struggle a little bit more, I'd say, compared to the rest of the tenant mix to be fair.

Gym is doing rather well. Supermarkets is doing rather well, restaurants rather well.

So that's probably cinema probably the main weakness that we're still looking for a bit of a pickup. But again, we have a cautiously optimistic outlook as well when it comes to retail, expecting fairly steady demand environment.

So overall, that leads us up to a pretty good outlook for heading into 2026.

Operator

The next question is from the line of [ Helena Ruiz ] with [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

I have a couple. The first one is on the stress.

I was wondering if you could give us like any color if you expect them to remain like at these levels for the last quarter of the year and next year? And also, if you could give us a breakdown like this growth is coming from all regions like especially one market?

And then my second question is on occupancy, like looking at each market, like most markets remain like really strong. The only one that saw a drop in occupancy are Monterrey and Juarez.

So if you could also give us a bit of color on why the occupancy fell in those markets?

Simon Hanna

Thanks, Helena, for those questions. Yes.

Look, when it comes to lease spreads, firstly, taking that one on. Look, pretty good quarter again, around 17%.

We have a sort of a last 12-month run rate of around 20%. So that's been tracking, I'd say, at a pleasing level for us.

When we look ahead, virtually 0 rollover on 4Q, so it doesn't really move the needle. So we should be somewhere close to that run rate level on a full year basis.

Outlook for next year, it's still early. We have about 16% rollover, 17% rollover next year.

So we have some opportunity there to continue capturing, I would say, positive momentum when it comes to spreads, a little bit early to say how much. Obviously, the -- a little bit there depend on market conditions.

But I think we -- we'd like to think that we can capture positive momentum in the same way we're seeing through the balance of this year. When it comes to some of those, I'd say, market-by-market dynamics, and I'd say there's -- it's quite an active market out there even despite the subdued new leasing conditions.

I would say, in general, we are seeing that the same dynamic we have today is what we've seen for the last couple of quarters, where steady occupancy and operating trends with USMCA being the real catalyst to, we think unlock new demand. But taking that down to, I guess, market levels to answer your question, Monterrey is probably the most active market.

It's also one of the biggest in the country, around 185 million square feet. So we still see a lot of activity there, a lot under construction.

So supply is still coming through. And that's always been the Monterrey way to be fair, but there's probably around 8 million under construction.

Amongst all that, though, on a quarterly basis, we're seeing sort of close to 4 million new leasing to basically offset some move-outs of about 4 million. So no doubt, there's a little bit of vacancy there north of 5%.

And you can probably say it's more of a tenant market than a landlord market these days. But -- when it comes to the type of product that we're delivering in the market, this is in Monterrey, but in other markets as well, I'd say that we're at the upper end of that tier.

And that pro forma vacancy is not so much of an issue for us. We're looking at in terms of the best quality buildings in the market, that's who our competition is because that's what we're building in terms of location, quality of building size, utilities, et cetera.

So that real competition is much more narrow. So whether you're even talking someone like Tijuana, where, again, you're seeing a lot of vacancy or supply come on, it doesn't really change the equation for us.

We're in the best part of town with some of those flagship developments up against really just a handful of building competitors. And so that noise around sort of 13%, 14% vacancy in Tijuana or 8% in Monterrey, it's not as relevant when you actually just boil it down to what the hard competition is against our Class A development product and we feel very well positioned to have some activity on that as we get through the year in USMCA in particular.

Juarez, I'd say, is probably remains pretty soft. That one has got a lot more sort of undifferentiated vacancy.

It's a bit more of a slower market than Monterrey at the moment, much more USMCA linked as well. So I think we expect more activity in that second half of next year or maybe the summer.

Reynosa, again, sort of a key northern market, I'd say, very, very quiet as well and had a good positive absorption quarter for the quarter. But on a year-to-date basis, it's pretty flat in terms of absorption.

And again, you'd expect that to be more correlated with USMCA pickup.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Jorel Guilloty with Goldman Sachs.

Wilfredo Jorel Guilloty

So my first question is around the recent M&A that you announced or mentioned in the report in Mexico City. So you bought an asset $35 million, sale leaseback.

And back of the envelope, this is like $1,500 per square meter. So I wanted to get a sense of what cap rate you saw for this asset?

And also, if the idea here is on further capital allocation, if it's in Mexico City that you want to focus on. And then -- and I'm sorry if you spoke about this earlier, but I wanted to ask about Monterrey and Juarez where you saw occupancy declines of 300 and 120 basis points each on a sequential basis.

So I wanted to get a sense of what drove that, if it's 1 tenant or multiple, just to understand if this is a one-off or a trend. So any color would be very helpful.

Simon Hanna

Okay. Thanks, Jorel.

Great questions there. Yes, the Mexico City acquisition, that was a fantastic one to do is irreplaceable location around 15 minutes from downtown in the Vallejo submarket.

And so that's a great last mile district to be in for sure. We're able to access that facility, really thinking about the stabilized cap rate at around a 10% level U.S.

dollar sort of the rental as well. So that's the way we're looking at it sort of seeing that stabilize into a 10% cap.

Now it's got an initial 3-year lease period there with the user. So -- sort of coming in at sort of an 8% area, but that's definitely below where we think the market rates are.

So just thinking about that on a real embedded rental rate growth profile when you actually look at 3 years down the track, where you think that should land around 10%. And so if you're able to access Mexico City last mile stabilized 10%, dollarized 250,000 square foot, we take that all day long, and we're very excited about that.

And yes, potentially, there could be 1 or 2 other opportunistic deals like that, that could come along. We're currently looking at 1 deal in particular and we'd like to think that maybe there's an opportunity to do that opportunistically.

Again, let's see, so I think that was a great transaction to pull off from a capital allocation point of view. And I'm happy to say, repeat that success.

Moving to the second question, on Monterrey, Juarez. So yes, I think from our own perspective, we -- in line with the market trends, we did see some vacancy there.

But when you actually look at what drove that year-over-year, pretty simple story, Jorel, in the sense that we just delivered some Class A product that has not been leased up. So it's been added into our inventory.

Both fantastic buildings, and we think very marketable. And again, something that will probably be more linked to USMCA ultimately, given the type of buildings and locations they're at.

So we feel very good about the buildings that have been added to inventory, even though they're unleased in the short term. We do think they've got great income potential over the medium term.

And we actually take the step back there, Jorel, actually not just what we've delivered in Monterrey and Juarez, but the other Class A product we have that basically has income potential and you add that up in terms of sort of getting close to 1 million square feet around the country. The exciting thing there is that we actually do have some real embedded growth that I don't think has been properly priced into our valuation or share price.

And any type of a meaningful lease up there on that sort of Class A development product that we have, we're fully invested. It's basically built product ready to be leased up, mainly subject to USMCA, if you want to say that.

That's got the potential ability to add something like, I'd say, comfortably north of $10 million at the NOI level. And you can obviously just drop that down to AFFO as well given that we're essentially fully funded and built that.

So that's a pretty exciting sort of short-term opportunity we think, to help drive NOI and earnings is to basically take advantage of improving market conditions into next year, particularly with USMCA to trigger that lease-up.

Wilfredo Jorel Guilloty

And a quick follow-up, if I may. So the sale leaseback opportunity, you mentioned there's a few in Mexico City, but are there opportunities such as those in other markets that you're in?

And would it be focused on logistics?

Simon Hanna

Yes. I think the answer is there are.

Obviously, we're sort of looking at selective opportunities here. We particularly like Mexico City Logistics.

That's a favored market for us where we'd like to increase our footprint. There are other opportunities in those other large consumption markets as well, sort of more of a logistics spend, you could say.

But as I say, when you look actually see what's in our immediate pipeline and possible opportunities, we're thinking more Mexico City as being executable in the short term.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Alejandra Obregon with Morgan Stanley.

Alejandra Obregon

Mine is on capital allocation as well. So I was just wondering if you can provide some color on how you're thinking of your uses of cash for 2026.

I mean if we split it between dividends, acquisitions, development, how would that look like in 2026? And what are the elements that will get you to any sort of decision on the mix on that front?

And then the second one is on the M&A market. So I was just wondering if you're seeing any change in sentiment or acceleration in M&A activity that perhaps could trigger some recycling opportunities for you other than the sale and leaseback that you just mentioned?

Simon Hanna

Sure. Yes.

Thanks, Alejandra. So yes, look, I think in terms of capital allocation, fairly consistent outlook with how we currently have been deploying our capital.

I think the main focus in the medium to long-term is going to be on that industrial development program. We have a land bank there of around 5 million square feet of buildable GLA in core markets.

So that's something that we can flex up in terms of development activity. As you know, we've been doing 0 construction starts for the last few quarters.

But as we get better visibility on demand fundamentals, that will remain the primary avenue of how we allocate our capital into those development properties, mainly on a spec basis, you could say. We remain also interested in pursuing certain opportunities in the short term.

They boil down, as I say, one is 2 opportunistic acquisitions where we can access those sort of development like returns, if you want to call it that, something like the 10% cap Mexico City. If we can do that on a more sort of a bite-sized basis to complement what we're doing on the development program, that's great.

I would say the other investment portal would be through strategic land bank investments to basically complement and add to the $5 million that we have so that we will basically continue that runway for building out getting back to that sort of 1 million to 2 million square feet of velocity on a medium- to long-term basis is where you want to be. And adding to that land bank will be an important part of that equation.

When it comes to buyback, I guess that's obviously another opportunity. I'm not sure, Andrew, if you wanted to give color on that.

Andrew McDonald-Hughes

Yes, happy to. I think as we've said previously, we continue to favor allocating capital to development and value-add opportunities where we see obviously; a, you have a much lesser impact on the balance sheet over the long-term.

You're not impacting liquidity overall and you're setting yourself up for valuation upside and the growth of those underlying assets. And so we'll continue to do that.

I think historically, we've guided to in the order of $100 million to $150 million of development per year. We've obviously been softer this year given the broader macro backdrop, but we continue to work towards some permitting and predevelopment works with respect to the recent acquisitions that we made in both Guadalajara and Tijuana.

And I think there's a good opportunity for those particular projects to progress over the next 12 months. And I think more to the point, we see a broader opportunity for future growth with the embedded potential recycling opportunity of our retail portfolio, along with the broader liquidity that we have access to through the balance sheet, which really sets us up for in the order of $500 million worth of potential firepower over the medium term.

So ultimately, from a growth perspective, over the near term, there's a deep sense of embedded value with the development projects that we have delivered to date that are well positioned for lease-up once we see the tailwinds return to the markets, which we're positive on with respect to how that looks over the short to medium term. And just with what we have already completed and delivered; that's in excess of $10 million in potential NOI contribution over the coming years.

And we think that, that will come to fruition and have a good line of sight to lease up on those properties as we go through the USMCA renewal and have more, I think, surety on the tariff and macro backdrop going forward through 2026 and into 2027. So overall, I think broadly speaking, from a capital allocation standpoint and the growth opportunities that the business is well positioned.

Alejandra Obregon

Excellent. That was very clear.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Alan Macias with Bank of America.

Alan Macias

My question was answered, but just going back to M&A, anything on the table regarding the retail sector?

Simon Hanna

Yes. Thanks, Alan.

Good to hear you. So I think retail, we're definitely very satisfied with the general trend of what we're seeing in operating financial metrics at the risk of repeating myself, but happy to say at 93.6%, record occupancy on a post-pandemic basis, NOI essentially at record levels, up around sort of $7 million, $8 million quarterly run rate.

It's been a fantastic contributor to the overall returns. As we think about operational performance, probably a little bit more upside to go, I think, even as good as it's been, that we are seeing some interesting opportunities to add to that overall, NOI performance, and that will obviously lead into valuation also becoming higher.

And as you think about that sort of valuation number, it's not insignificant by any means, sort of -- we're talking sort of $300 million plus. And so the interesting dynamic that we're seeing just as NOI continues to improve is obviously a more conducive interest rate backdrop with the interest rates locally falling from, let's say, 10% to sub-8% and you're sort of getting into positive leverage territory and sort of more compelling M&A backdrop.

So we like the sound of that in terms of how that's all converging and [indiscernible] for an ability to start thinking about that sort of medium-term opportunity that Andrew mentioned around recycling. And really, that's what we've got to be thinking about in terms of -- apart from that short-term catalyst to grow earnings, which is really simple, which is just to lease up the Class A stuff that we've built and is ready for lease-up.

The medium-term opportunity is certainly quite exciting and quite compelling when we think about that embedded firepower of around $500 million, that really allows us to flex up when it comes to building out the land bank and thinking about additional investments. We feel quite excited and well positioned with the ability to do that.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions.

I'd like to turn the floor back to management for closing remarks.

Simon Hanna

Yes. Thank you for that, Rob, and thank you for everyone for participating in today's call.

Along with Andrew, I would like to thank all of our stakeholders for your ongoing support, and we very much look forward to speaking with you over the coming days and weeks as well as updating you again at the end of the quarter. So have a great one.

Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for joining our presentation today.

You may now disconnect.