Operator
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.
Before we begin the call today, I would like to remind you that forward-looking statements made during today's conference call do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.
Please note that this videoconference is being recorded. Joining us today from BanBajío are Mr.
Carlos de la Cerda, Executive Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors; Mr. Edgardo del Rincón, Chief Executive Officer; Mr.
Joaquín Domínguez, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Rodrigo Marimon, Investor Relations Officer.
They will be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session. For opening remarks and introductions, I will now like to turn the call over to Mr.
Rodrigo Marimon. Mr.
Marimon, you may begin.
Rodrigo Marimon
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss BanBajío's results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025.
Today, we will review our quarterly and annual performance, analyze the key drivers and financial trends, and share our strategic outlook for 2026. The industry data cited today throughout the presentation is based on CNBV's information as of November 2025, which is the most recent publicly available data.
Without any further ado, let's start with the presentation. Starting on slide 3 with a look at our key financial highlights for the quarter and full year 2025, it was a year of solid execution despite the challenging operating environment, with a stagnant GDP growth and a lower interest rate.
Turning to credit performance, the total loan portfolio expanded by 4.6% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by the company loans portfolio, which grew at a rate of 5.2%.
On the funding side, total deposits saw a robust increase of 10.5% compared to the previous year. Regarding asset quality, our NPL ratio improved significantly to the end of the year at 1.49%, supported by a strong coverage ratio of 126.5%.
This trend also drove an improvement in our risk profile, with a cost of risk for the full year at 0.96%, while in the fourth quarter, it decreased further to 0.75%. In terms of profitability, we achieved an efficiency ratio of 39.8% for the full year and 43.5% for the fourth quarter.
Our return on average equity stood at 19.4% for the 12-month period and 18.1% for the quarter, while the return on average assets was 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively. Net income for the full year 2025 reached 9.1 billion pesos, with the fourth quarter contributing 2.2 billion pesos.
Finally, our preliminary capitalization ratio as of December 2025 stands at a solid 15.5%, composed entirely of Common Equity Tier 1 capital. Moving to slide 4, we examine our 2025 performance against the guidance provided to the market.
We are very proud to report that BanBajío met or outperformed most of the targets established for the year. Starting with our balance sheet, loan growth stood slightly below our range, reflecting disciplined growth in a challenging year.
Conversely, deposits outperformed expectations with a 10.5% increase, well above our 6% to 9% target. Our net interest margin landed right on target at 6%, while non-interest income, the combination of fees and trading income, grew by 4.4%.
Operating expenses grew 8.2%, close to the bottom of the guided range, reflecting our ongoing commitment to cost control. This led to an efficiency ratio of 39.8%, outperforming our 40% to 42% guidance.
The significant improvement in our portfolio mentioned earlier resulted in a cost of risk that beat our target range of 1% to 1.1%. As for our bottom-line results, the delivered net income of 9.1 billion pesos significantly exceeded the high end of our guided range.
This drove a strong return on average equity, which reached the upper bound of our target. Finally, regarding our asset quality and solvency, we exceeded our guidance for the NPLs, coverage, and capitalization ratios.
Moving to our loan portfolio growth details on slide 5, the total loan portfolio reached 278 billion pesos at the end of the fourth quarter, leading to the mentioned year-over-year expansion of 4.6%. This growth was primarily driven by our core business, company loans, which include both corporate and SME segments, increasing by 5.2% and now representing 86% of our total loan book.
Consumer loans continued with the double-digit growth trend reported in the past quarters, growing 11.4% year-over-year. The 12.1% expansion in the government portfolio was driven by a specific exposure originated in December with good levels of interest margins, an opportunity aligned with our focus on profitable growth.
This trend, coupled with the 11.4% contraction in financial institutions, underscores our strategic reallocation of capital towards our higher-margin business lines. On slide 6, I want to highlight the strategic evolution of our sales force as we move into 2026.
This initiative is an enhancement of our existing business model and our competitive edges, designed to further accelerate loan growth by deepening our segment specialization and sharpening our operational agility. We are reinforcing this through three strategic pillars.
First, we are optimizing our credit process to ensure we improve our speed and responsiveness. Second, we are increasing our regional presence in major cities, with an important growth in our sales force and executive bankers.
This allow our bankers to focus exclusively on the specific needs of their respective segments, ensuring a higher level of expertise and tailored service. Third, we are scaling our successful SME centers.
We recently opened a new hub in Mexico City, and we have three more scheduled for the next quarters: in Querétaro, Guadalajara, and a third location in Mexico City. We expect to conclude 2026 with 11 specialized centers, keeping us on our path to 20 centers by 2030.
Turning now to slide 7, let's examine our asset quality and risk profile. Notably, our NPL ratio improved significantly to 1.49%.
This performance significantly widened the gap with the system's average of 2.25%. Similarly, our adjusted NPL ratio stood at 2.84%, compared to the system's 4.45%.
This marked improvement in portfolio health allowed us to optimize the cost of risk to 0.75% for the fourth quarter. Regarding coverage, we maintain a prudent ratio of 126.5%, and as of December 2025, we continue to hold 330 million pesos in additional reserves, which we plan to absorb over the next six months.
This improvement allow us to enter 2026 with a healthier loan portfolio, ensuring BanBajío's position to support a more active lending environment in the upcoming year. Turning to the funding side on slide 8, total deposits reached 273 billion pesos in the fourth quarter, representing a robust 10.5% year-over-year increase.
This performance was underpinned by an 11.6% rise in demand deposits and a 9.4% increase in time deposits. Over the last four years, we have maintained a resilient 10% compound annual growth rate in total deposits, a track record that remarks the strength of our franchise and the deepening of our core customer relationships.
On slide 9, our current funding breakdown shows that demand deposits remain the core of our strategy, representing 40% of our total funding mix. Notably, zero-cost deposits saw significant increase during the period, now accounting for 19% of the total breakdown.
This robust growth in non-interest-bearing funding was the primary driver behind the marked decrease in our overall cost of funds in the quarter. This highlights the reversal of the upward trend observed in third quarter 2025 and the widening of the gap with the reference rate.
Our cost of funds for the fourth quarter reached 4.94%, a 169 basis points decrease compared to the same period last year and 50 basis points below the previous quarter. Likewise, our cost of funds as a percentage of TIIE dropped to 64.7% in the quarter, a positive divergence from the system's average that saw funding cost climbing closer to the reference rate.
Moving to slide 10, the net interest margin for the fourth quarter was 5.77%. This represents a 100 basis points contraction year-over-year, primarily driven by the lower interest rate environment, which contributed 68 basis points to the decline, and changes in the portfolio mix, which accounted for the remaining 32 basis points.
Through active balance sheet management, we maintained rate sensitivity at around 20 basis points throughout 2025, effectively cushioning the impact of the accelerated rate cycle on our margin. While our expansion into zero-cost deposits drove a temporary uptick in sensitivity during the final quarter, we have already seen a normalization in early 2026, and we expect this stability to prevail throughout the year.
You will see the overall stable performance of BanBajío's revenues on slide 11. Total revenues for 2025 stood at 25 billion pesos, a minor 2.6% decrease despite the significant pressure on margins.
This stability was underpinned by the successful execution of our diversification strategy, as normalized non-interest income grew a robust 26.2% for the full year. Net fees and commissions increased 16.3% year-over-year, driven by a 39.8% surge in cash management fees and a 38.4% increase in revenues from our digital platform, Bajionet.
Additionally, normalized trading income rose 18.2% during the same period. These results validated our intentions to grow recurring fee-based income, limiting the impact of economic and interest rate cycles on our long-run performance.
Moving to slide 12, our efficiency ratio for the full year 2025 stood at 39.8%, successfully outperforming our guidance range. For the fourth quarter, the ratio was 43.5%.
Despite this quarterly uptick, BanBajío continues to be one of the most efficient banks in the industry, maintaining a significant gap against the system's average of 46.3%, and demonstrates the operational discipline and strict cost control that we have been anticipating to the market. Turning to profitability on slide 13, it is important to highlight that despite the quarterly compression seen throughout the year, we successfully exceeded the upper end of our net income 2025 guidance.
This performance drove a robust full-year return on average equity of 19.4%, effectively reaching the top of our target range, while return on average assets stood at a sound 2.4%. Finally, on slide 14, we closed 2025 with a preliminary capital adequacy ratio of 15.5%.
This level stands significantly above our 14% commitment and well exceeds regulatory requirements. Our robust capital position provides the bank with substantial flexibility to continue with a sound levels of return of value to our shareholders, while supporting our growth objectives.
Lastly, on slide 15, we introduce our guidance for the 2026 fiscal year. Beginning with macroeconomic assumptions, we estimate GDP growth at 1.3%, stable inflation at 4%, and a 50 basis point decrease in the reference rate from current 7% to 6.5% by the end of 2026.
Based on these drivers, we are forecasting loan growth between 8% and 10% and deposit growth from 10% to 11%. We target net interest margin between 5.4% and 5.5%, and we expect fee and trading income to continue to grow at a sound pace of 13% to 15%.
Our cost control efforts will prevail, and operating expenses are projected to increase between 7% and 9%, maintaining our efficiency ratio within a 43% to 45% range. We forecast that these factors will lead us to a net income of 8.25 to 9 billion pesos and a return on average equity between 16.5% to 18%.
This guidance reflects a transition towards a more normalized interest rate environment, while maintaining our revenue diversification strategy and top-tier cost efficiency. Regarding our risk profile, we anticipate a cost of risk between 80 and 100 basis points, while keeping our NPL ratio below 1.7% and a coverage ratio of above 1.1 times.
Furthermore, we maintain our commitment to a capitalization ratio above 14%. In summary, our fourth quarter and full-year results reinforce BanBajío's sound fundamentals and solid balance sheet.
We are pleased to have met most of our targets for the past year and remain fully committed to delivering on the guidance provided for 2026. With this, I conclude my presentation, and we can open the call for the Q&A session.
Operator
We will now conduct a Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press the raise hand button located at the bottom of the screen.
If you are connected via telephone, please dial *9. We remind you that all lines have been placed on mute.
When it is your turn to ask a question, you will be given permission to speak. You will then be able to unmute yourself and ask your question.
Our first question comes from the line of Ernesto Gabilondo. Please state your company name and ask your question.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Thank you. Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.
Hi, good morning Carlos, Edgardo, Joaquín, and Rodrigo. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions.
My first question will be on asset quality. You were mentioning that you still have excess provisions of around 400 million pesos and that you expect to consume in the next six months.
Looking into your guidance, you're expecting cost of risk between 0.80% to 1%. Even that you are consuming the excess provisions, you are expecting that range of cost of risk.
Would that be explained because you are going to have a more credit risk appetite this year as you were saying in your new strategy for the year? My second question is on your guidance.
When looking to your ROE expectations for the year, what is the dividend payout ratio we should be assuming? When could we have more color of a potential special dividend this year?
Lastly, I would like to pick up your brains and to see in which lines of your guidance do you see upside and downside risks? Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Ernesto, and good morning, everyone. Regarding asset quality, the NPL, as you saw, end at 1.49%, a very similar level that we reported a year ago.
We are very happy with the improvement compared with previous quarters. Also cost of risk, actually, cost of risk was the best cost of risk reported during 2025.
Yes, we have not 400, Ernesto, we have 333 million pesos of additional reserves. The idea and the commitment with the CNBV is to use them during the following six months.
As we mentioned in previous calls, we are going to have a coverage ratio that is equivalent to the regulatory reserves that we need to have. For this year, we expect more stability.
As we mentioned, in 2025, we have several isolated cases several of them we write off during the fourth quarter because of the low probability of recovery. Of course, we continue with the legal actions regarding those cases.
For this year, we feel well comfortable with the level of cost of risk between 0.8% and 1%. We believe we are going to have less important cases transitioning to stage three.
Actually, the 0.75% that we had during the fourth quarter in part was because we didn't have any important case transitioning to stage three. Regarding risk appetite, we are not considering increasing our risk appetite.
Actually, asset quality remains a cornerstone of the strategy. We wouldn't have additional risk appetite.
The name of the game, of course, for us is to bring more customers to BanBajío, and that's why we are increasing the business units we have in several places, mainly in those cities like Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, in which the financial system is very very concentrated. That means additional bankers and additional business units.
That's why we are forecasting to recover growth and to grow the loan portfolio between 8% to 10%. Regarding dividend, Carlos, please.
Carlos de la Cerda
Hi, Ernesto and everybody. Yesterday, the Board of Directors approved a proposal to be made in April to the stockholders meeting of a 50% payout dividend on the 2025 net profits, to be paid half of it in May and the other half in September.
Later on, depending on how the year is developing, the growth in the loan portfolio and so forth, we will consider an additional dividend, but that will be probably considered during the third Q. Regarding your latest question, Ernesto, about opportunities in the guidance, we are very happy with the expense level that we reported during the year.
If you remember, in the guidance that we provide to the market in January, we were expecting between 10% to 12%. Reaching 8% it was very good.
We feel comfortable with the expense level of 7% to 9%. The plan, let's say, is based in the middle of that range with 8%, but we could have some opportunity there.
This expense level includes also new branches and all the new positions because of the new business units we are implementing. Of course, all this additional expense will be through mainly the first semester, no, because in getting that talent in place is not something that you do immediately.
It's going to take a few months. I could say also we are very happy with the results in fees and trading income.
Last year, we didn't have the volatility in FX so we can have more volumes and better margins. We expect this to have a recovery during 2025.
I could say also that the mix of the portfolios that we are expecting in terms of growth is related to having the corporate portfolio growing between 8% to 10%, SMEs that had a better margin around 15%, and the consumer portfolio between 15% to 20%. This could provide an additional yield and better margins because of the mix of the assets.
I could say those could be some opportunities in the guidance.
Joaquín Domínguez
Hello, this is Joaquín Domínguez. Another upside risk could be in case of the sale of some foreclosure assets and the recovery of some loans that we had in past due loans during the last few years.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Excellent. No, super helpful.
Just a last question. We continue to see a super peso and a weak dollar.
What would that imply for your loan portfolio that is denominated in dollars and to your loan portfolio related to exporters? I just wanted to understand if this could have an impact on NIM or in asset quality if, for example, we have the peso at 16.5 if reaching a USMCA agreement?
Edgardo del Rincón
Yes. Actually, we had an impact in the loan size because of the exchange rate.
The impact was a little bit more than 4 billion pesos, representing 1.6% of the loan book. This means that instead of having a growth of 4.6%, with a stability in the exchange rate, it would be 6.2%.
That impact is already in place, and we don't see additional impact in 2026. Actually, that could be an opportunity.
Regarding exporters, those customers represent about 10% of the loan portfolio. Until today, what we are seeing in the financial statements, of course, is bringing challenges, but we don't see past-due loans because of that.
Of course, they need to change the strategy, looking for better expenses and better efficiency. Until today, those customers are reporting good numbers.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Excellent. No, thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Danele Miranda.
Please state your company name and ask your question.
Danele Miranda
Good morning, Carlos, Edgardo, Joaquín. Thanks for taking my question.
Just a very quick one from my side on loan growth guidance. I was wondering if this 8% to 10% is assuming all positive scenarios already.
Is this your base case with potential upside, I don't know, with USMCA, private investment reactivating? Or is this already your positive scenario?
Also, is this guidance seasonal? Can we expect acceleration in the second half of the year, or will it remain in this 8% to 10% levels all year?
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Danele. What we are seeing is we made several changes in the organization to provide more focus and, as I said, to have additional business units.
We are talking about four new regional corporate banking offices, two in Guadalajara, one in Mexico City that is going to be that tier regional director, and one additional one in Monterrey. Of course, all of them with additional bankers.
In terms of the SME centers, we currently have eight SME centers. Those units are to attend companies with loan sizes between 30 to 100 million pesos.
We have eight because we opened an additional one, the second one, in Mexico City last December, and we are planning to open Guadalajara, Querétaro, and in the second semester, an additional one in the satellite area in Mexico City to end the year with 11 SME centers. All of this will provide support to attract more new customers to BanBajío.
We are talking about between 50 to 70 additional bankers for those two important segments that is the core business for BanBajío. We feel confident with the pipeline that we are seeing today that we can reach the guidance between 8% to 10%.
Maybe it's too soon to say if we have an upside opportunity in loan growth.
Danele Miranda
Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Yuri Fernandes.
Please state your company name and ask your question.
Yuri Fernandes
Thank you all. Yuri Fernandes here from J.P.
Morgan. I have a follow-up regarding margins, and I think the explanation was already a little bit more positive one.
When you think about the implied margin decrease, this year, you mentioned that some 30% of the decrease was mix, right, and 70% was rates. For 2026, for sure, we have maybe 50, 100 bps lower rates and the average rates in Mexico should be even lower than that.
You mentioned FX volatility maybe to be less and this can help. The growth of the loans, they also should help, right?
I think you are growing less on the financial sector, SMEs you mentioned around 15, consumer portfolio also growing a little bit less. I know it's small, but it should grow more.
The question is the following: for 2026, for your guidance, how you're building the decrease on NIMs? Is this purely rates?
Do you have some kind of mix inside that? Or funding was good this quarter, maybe you are baking in some funding deterioration?
Just trying to understand a little bit the drivers. I know rates is the big part of the answer, but if you can help us build the blocks for the margin decrease, that would be helpful.
Then I can ask a second question. Thank you.
Joaquín Domínguez
Hello, Yuri. Thank you for your question.
This is Joaquín Domínguez. Our sensitivity remains around 20 basis points for each 100 basis of change of the TIIE rate.
For the 2026, maybe the mix will be more important than last years in deposit side, because as you saw, we grow much more on deposits that in loan portfolio. That means that we accumulate some investment in the Treasury with lower interest rate.
If our plans of growing in terms of loan growth we do deliver as we expected, we will change the mix in assets. We will have more loan portfolio instead of securities in the Treasury, and that will provide us an improvement in the total assets.
In terms of the loan portfolio, the market we are focused on has a higher interest rate that the average of the total loan portfolio. If we do well with this SME centers, we will improve the mix of assets and that will help to improve the NIM.
In the other side, we have been doing well in terms of deposits and increasing and especially at the end of the last year, the demand deposits accounts not bearing interests. If we maintain that makes of the growth in demand deposits without cost, that will improve the margin, but will increase the sensitivity.
All those factors have a different results in the NIM. At the end of the day, what we are looking for more than a specific objective in terms of margins is improve all the lines: the mix of total portfolio, the mix of loans, and the mix of deposits.
What we did for this guidance is that we maintain the composition of the assets and the deposits as they were in the fourth quarter. Any change of that mix could affect positively or negatively the guidance about the sensitivity and the margins.
Yuri Fernandes
No, super clear, Joaquín. Let's do the blocks.
The average rates in 2025, I think the average Banxico rate was around 8.4%. Maybe rate to go to 6%, not sure what is your estimate there, 6%, 6.5%.
Maybe the average rate to decrease some 200 bps. With a 20, 23, 24 bps sensitivity, this is 40, 45.
Your guidance is implying a 50 to 60 bps decrease, right, from 6% to 5.4%? What I'm trying to get here is, is your guidance too conservative?
Maybe if the mix plays well, as you mentioned, maybe the margin decrease is less than the guidance is implying at this point?
Joaquín Domínguez
I could say that is not exactly conservative. It's just the result if you make the account considering the balance sheet in the fourth quarter.
Not the average. There is something that you should consider that the last reduction in the interest rate was at the end of December of the last year.
That impact was not captured in the fourth quarter. It will be reflected in the first quarter of this year.
That effect runs for the rest of the year. Probably that would explain what you're saying.
We are maintaining the NIM sensitivity in our forecast and in our guidance without change.
Yuri Fernandes
No. Super clear.
Just a second one on another topic, asset quality. Just going back to Ernesto's questions on this.
When we go to your new NPL formation, your new stage three formation, putting all together, right, the NPLs and the higher write-offs this quarter, it was a very good formation. It was lower.
Just checking, could we have hopes that maybe there could be a surprise on this? Because I think Edgardo mentioned before that you had very few cases going to stage three this quarter.
Just checking if there was something specific you did, something different on renegotiations, reprofile of debt, and this explain, or sale of portfolio, because it was a good number on formation. When I look to your guidance, the guidance implies 0.8%, 1% cost of risk, slightly higher NPL.
Just trying to understand if there was any kind of a one-off in the new NPL, new stage three formation for the fourth quarter. Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Yuri. Actually, no.
What we saw in the fourth quarter is a reduction in the balance of stage three loans and the write-off that we did is preparing us to just let's say to clean up the portfolio. Our criteria is always those loans with low probability of recovery, we rather write off them and of course continue all the recovery actions, no?
The level that we have at the end of the fourth quarter, let's say, is a more normalized level of NPL. We expect to be around those levels during that year.
As I mentioned before, during 2025, we have several important, but isolated cases from different sectors that transitioned to stage three. During the fourth quarter, we didn't see any important case, no?
Of course, that could happen in '26. We don't have in our view any important case at this moment, but we feel well with the 0.8% to 1% that is a more also more regular or normal level of cost of risk for the bank.
Of course, as we transition and grow more the SME portfolio and the consumer portfolio that normally have a higher NPLs, that could change in time. With the guidance that we are providing, we feel very comfortable.
Yuri Fernandes
No, super clear. No, thank you, Edgardo.
Thank you, Joaquín, for your explanations. Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Yuri.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Ito.
Please state your company name and ask your question.
Eric Ito
Hi, guys. This is Eric Ito from Bradesco BBI.
Thank you Carlos, Edgardo, Joaquín, and Rodrigo. I have two here on my side as well.
The first one, I'd like to touch basically on a more strategic point here on your new sales force structure. You are deploying a lot, investing a lot, you have this plan of 2030 of 20 branches.
I just want to get a bit sense for let's say beyond 2026, 2027, what can we think about efficiency here? If that should be one of the points that could continue pressuring OPEX going forward?
This is my first one, and then I can ask my second later.
Edgardo del Rincón
Good, Eric, and thank you for your question. If we want to have a good efficiency ratio and a good ROE, the best strategy that we can follow is to grow the loan portfolio.
That's why we decided to increase the business units and sales force of the bank at the end of the fourth quarter. As I mentioned already, we are adding four regional directors for the corporate segment in Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey.
Also the SME centers, we are very happy with the results we are having. Each SME center has more than 1 billion pesos in loans and, as I mentioned, is dedicated to a segment, let's say, with loan sizes between 30 to 100 million.
The idea for the following four or five years is to get to 2030 with more than 20 SME centers. We have eight today.
We are developing, let's say, a new strategy with new business units to attend that segment that is very very profitable, no? In the corporate area, we have a lot of room to grow.
Our market share in commercial loan portfolio is a little bit more than 6%. We continue with huge opportunity to attract new customers.
That is the idea. Regarding branches, during 2025, we opened nine branches, and we already have nine, 10 branches that I'm completely sure we are going to open this year.
That number could increase up to 15 if we had the right location, etc. Those, let's say, new branches are already approved.
The number of new branches is between 10 to 15 this year. The idea for the following years is to continue with a similar number of about 10 to 15 branches.
The bank has a lot of opportunity to grow, and we need to grow also our branches and our bankers, etc., to capture that opportunity. Just to complement in the efficiency ratio side, in our projections, we made the exercise considering the maximum number of branches and SME centers to open, they would not surprises in terms that we will be expending more than that we budgeted.
There is no downside risk in terms of not delivering the guidance in terms of expenses.
Eric Ito
Super clear. Then my second one is just maybe a follow-up here, especially on the strategy to grow SMEs, which is a portfolio that you are investing a lot.
How can we think about your portfolio mix? Currently, you have 57% of your book in corporate and 29% in SMEs.
I don't know if you guys have a target that you could share with us, but I feel like we can continue having this much higher CAGR on SMEs.
Edgardo del Rincón
Yes. With the internal definition of SMEs, we have an SME portfolio of more than 40 billion pesos, no?
That is important because, and we are growing very well. The margin that we have in that segment is much better than the corporate segment.
It's about 1.5% more margin in the loan book. More important than that, it is easier to bring the customer and to engage the customer to all the rest of the services regarding cash management, FX, etc.
The revenue coming from that portfolio proportionally is very very important, no? That is the, I could say, the main segment for the bank, and I believe with these SME centers, we are putting in place a competitive advantage of BanBajío.
We feel that the business model that we are implementing is working very very well, and that's why we are accelerating the number of SME centers in the following years.
Eric Ito
Thank you, guys. Thank you for the answer.
Very clear.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Neha Agarwala.
Please state your company name and ask your question.
Neha Agarwala
Hi, this is Neha Agarwala from HSBC. Thank you so much for taking my question.
First one on the loan growth, which stands out as a bit on the higher side, especially when compared to some of the peer numbers that we have seen. What is the expectation in terms of USMCA agreement?
When, in your budgeting, when do you expect that to be finalized, as that could be a kicker in terms of loan growth? I'll go to my second question after.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Neha. Of course, loan loan demand has been affected by the uncertainty coming from the US USMCA agreement and the negotiation that will will happen during this first semester.
In the loan growth, we are forecasting a more conservative growth during the first semester and a a better second semester. That that is implied in in the business plan that we are that that we are guiding.
Our scenario is that we reach an agreement with the US. We believe that dependency that that we have in in those two markets is is very important, no?
The best scenario for both countries is to reach an agreement. That is the best scenario.
The base scenario.
Neha Agarwala
Perfect. My second question is on the branch expansion that you've mentioned.
With all of this investment to drive up the loan growth, could you compare the NIM profile for the large corporate segment and the SME segment, because if the mix shifts more towards the SMEs, how in the next two, three years would that impact your NIMs and your cost of risk? Given the expansion plan, it seems like the cost growth will probably be on an elevated level not just in 2026, but in 2027, 2028 as well, which could pressure the cost-to-income ratio.
How should we think about the evolution of cost-to-income ratio in the next two, three years given the expansion plan? Thank you so much.
Edgardo del Rincón
We don't have the NIM by segment at this moment. What I can tell you is the margin in the loan book is better, but also the mix of deposits has a better margin.
Also non-financial income proportionately at the size of the customer or the loan is more important. Profitability is better.
The cross-sell ratio in SMEs is more than five products and services, and the corporate is a little bit more than three, 3.2. As a result, let's say, the SMEs is much more profitable than the corporate segment.
Neha Agarwala
Perfect. Cost to income, if you could give some color on that, the impact on cost to income and how should it trend given the cost growth should be slightly higher?
Joaquín Domínguez
Hi, Neha. That cost to income maybe is one of the most important drivers we follow month by month.
What we saw in the last quarter is a quite increase in the cost of risk, but also an improvement in the generation of non-interest income. What we are considering for this year is that the growth on non-interest income that is well supported by a very diversified lines of products that we are offering to our clients will support the increase on expenses, even the reduction of the NIM.
We feel that we can very well support it and control the efficiency ratio due mainly to the growth of the non-interest income.
Neha Agarwala
Okay. Perfect.
Thank you so much, Joaquín and Edgardo.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Neha.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Flores.
Please state your company name and ask your question. Hey,
Brian Flores
hi team. Good afternoon.
Thank you for the opportunity. Brian Flores from Citi.
I have two questions. The first one is on your NIM sensitivity because the cost of funding as a percentage of TIIE has been improving, and you mentioned the efforts you have made on the asset side.
I just wanted to maybe understand how you're positioning yourself, not for 2026 because we understand what is likely to happen, but the sensitivity for further ahead, when maybe Banxico becomes a bit more stable, no, in the policy rate. Would you be willing by design to reduce the sensitivity for further cycles?
I just wanted to understand. Also, I think in the last two calls, maybe you have mentioned a sustainable ROE of high teens.
Do you think this guidance actually shows the let's say structural level of ROE where we should see Bajío going forward? Then if I may, just a second one on GDP growth.
In your presentation, I think you have 1.3% as the base case here. One of your peers was a bit more optimistic, maybe on tailwinds from the World Cup and internal consumption in Mexico.
Do you see if a scenario more similar to them, which is around 1.6% in terms of GDP, plays out, there is upside on the loan growth side? Thank you.
Joaquín Domínguez
Hi, Brian. Regarding the NIM sensitivity, what we are seeing is that we do not have an specific targets of NIM sensitivity because that by itself do not necessarily reflects an increase in the income of the value of the bank.
What it is important for us is to maintain a healthy growth. Even if the NIM have a reduction, it doesn't matter if the volume of business is higher.
It is quite difficult to say that we have an specific objective of reducing the NIM sensitivity, because if we just have the idea to reduce it to 10 basis points, it probably will have a high cost to make or to create that reduction and will reduce the net income. No it is not directly the relation between lower NIM sensitivity and higher income.
Our focus is in increase total income and margin income, despite what happens with the NIM at itself. What we are focus is improve the mix of assets and deposits, but not having an specific target of NIM sensitivity.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Brian, regarding ROE, as you saw, we are considering here an additional decrease in rates of 50 basis points to get to 6.50%, and we believe we are getting closer to the floor in rates, no? With all the geopolitical situation and the inflation in Mexico, we feel that we are getting close to the floor.
With that, sensitivity will be less important. We are sure that we feel comfortable in providing a sustainable ROE in high teens that is reflected in the guidance.
Regarding GDP, we consider the average of the analyst. Actually, that bank that you are mentioning is one of the highest forecast in GDP growth, but the median of the different analysts in that analysis is 1.3, 1.3%.
Of course, if we can have a potential additional growth, more GDP growth, that will help a lot in growing the loan portfolio, of course.
Brian Flores
Thank you, Edgardo. Just, do you have any sensitivity in terms of let us put it add or bps to your base-case scenario here on in terms of loan growth?
Edgardo del Rincón
If you can repeat, it was cut the connection. You can repeat, Brian, please?
Brian Flores
Sure, Edgardo. No problem.
No, just wondering if you have a sensitivity measure as to the multiplier. For example, if we have some upside risks here on GDP, where could we see your loan growth compared to your base-case scenario?
Edgardo del Rincón
Actually, the multiple that we are using already in the guidance with a GDP growth of 1.3% is higher than previous years. What we are planning to do is to gain market share, no, and to bring more customers, no?
Of course, with additional growth in the economy that will help, as I said, but it's maybe difficult to forecast at this moment an upside opportunity regarding that.
Brian Flores
Super clear. Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Brian.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ricardo Buchpiguel.
Please state your company name and ask your question.
Ricardo Buchpiguel
Hi, this is Ricardo Buchpiguel from BTG Pactual. Just have one question here.
How do you see the competitive landscape in the corporate lending environment evolving? We see that BanBajío and other peers have been expanding a lot their branches network, and you also have Banamex, which is a big bank in Mexico, came out of a change in control and eventually could become a bit more aggressive.
At the same time, as we have been discussing in this call, you also have a lot of uncertainty mainly in the first half of the year because of this USMCA deal, right? My question here, with a lot of uncertainty regarding how much the size of the market will grow, and a lot of banks, and including ourselves, increasing the number of branches and people, are you concerned in any way for potential pressures in rates?
Edgardo del Rincón
I believe that is a situation that always happen in this market. Competition is important, of course.
We try to compete more with service than with price, no? Of course, we need to provide a competitive price to the customer, but our business model is more to be really close to the customer, have a very good communication with them, understand very well the opportunity and risks that they are seeing, and try to help them in all the cycle, no?
Competition is huge. I believe with the potential IPO of Banamex and once they recover, let's say, the strategy that they used to have several years ago, competition will increase.
That is always happening. Normally in the corporate segment, we are always competing with at least one bank.
We have less competition in the SME segment, but that is part of the regular scenario in this market. I believe it's good for the market evolution and also for customers.
Ricardo Buchpiguel
That's very clear. Just one quick follow-up: if we look at the last few months, not only in Q4, but a little bit in Q1, have you seen any changes in terms of competition, the pressures on rates, or is overall stable?
Edgardo del Rincón
It's a huge competition environment, and I believe Q4 was similar with the rest of the previous quarters during 2025. Of course, all the banks are trying to grow and to bring the best customers possible to those banks.
I feel the environment is stable. It's the same.
Ricardo Buchpiguel
Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Lindsey Shema. Please state your company name and ask your question.
Lindsey Shema
Hi, Lindsey Shema here from Goldman Sachs. I just have a quick question following up on the increase in write-offs in the quarter.
Given the increase in write-offs this quarter, do you see any impacts from the change in regulation to the ability to be able to deduct write-offs from your taxes, and that's why you moved them ahead? Or is that completely separate?
Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you. We are expecting really the same level.
If we consider write-off of 2025 plus the reserves associated with past-due loans minus recoveries, we are talking about 2.8 billion pesos during 2025. Actually, that was the same number for '24.
For '25 and with this NPL and cost of risk that we are expecting, we could have a small reduction in write-off during 2026. Regarding the new regulation, it won't have an impact in the P&L, but will delay the capacity of the bank to deduct those write-offs, no?
It will take at least two years starting in the moment that we start the legal action, let's say, to recover that loan. In terms of small loans lower than 30,000 UDIs, it's going to be one year.
It won't affect the P&L really, but the deduction of those write-offs will take longer.
Lindsey Shema
Perfect. Very clear.
Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. We will pause for questions.
Our next question comes from the line of Federico Galassi. Please state your company name and ask your question.
Federico Galassi
Hello, Federico Galassi from Rohatyn Group. Two questions if I may.
The first one is last year in the last part of the year was very vocal from the government that could be some caps on fees. I don't know if you have any comment of that.
The second one, maybe you mentioned that, but you can repeat me what is the Mexican peso that are using in your guidance for the loan growth? Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Federico. The only initiative that is on the table today is regarding interchange fees.
There is not a decision yet, but it's an important reduction in interchange fees. Actually, the plan that we are proposing today to the market is not including any impact of this.
The revenues coming from interchange fees represent about 1.8% of total revenues of the bank. As you saw in the initiative, they are putting a cap in interchange.
That means that the discount rate that the banks are charging, let's say, to the merchant, that acquiring bank will pay less interchange to the issuer. On that regard, our acquiring business represent about 3% of total revenue.
That could imply in the short term a benefit for the bank because of that difference, let's say, in percentage of revenue. Nevertheless, we see this initiative as negative for the market.
Let's see what is going to be the final decision regarding that. With the initiative as it is today, it has a potential positive impact in our numbers.
Joaquín Domínguez
Hello, Federico. This is Joaquín Domínguez.
Regarding the second question, we have approximately $1,450 in loan portfolio, and what we are expecting is a FX rate pretty close to 18 pesos per dollar at the end of the year, and that will implies a very marginal impact in the valuation of that loan portfolio. 18.
18, dijiste. 18.
18. 18.
Federico Galassi
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Geraghty.
Please state your company name and ask your question.
Andrew Geraghty
Hey, this is Andrew Geraghty from Morgan Stanley. Just a small question to clarify: when you guys said that you plan to open between 10 to 15 branches this year, does that consider the regional corporate banking offices and the SME centers, or is that separate?
Just wanted to clarify. Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Andrew. It's separate.
Branches is a regular branch to make transactions and to sell products and services, and the SME centers and the corporate regional offices are business units mainly with bankers to attend those segments. It's completely different.
Andrew Geraghty
Thank you.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you, Andrew.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Flores.
Please state your question. Hey,
Brian Flores
hi team. Just very quickly here.
I was checking here my notes. I think in one of the upside risks you mentioned here was probably recovery of some loans, which I understand, and I think you mentioned sales of assets.
Would you just give us examples as to what were you meaning by these sales of assets?
Joaquín Domínguez
Hi, Brian. As we have mentioned in several cases, we used to take warranties in most or collaterals in more of the loans.
During the years, not specifically last year, because it takes many years to recover assets, we have some foreclosure assets which have a zero pesos valuation in the balance, and if we sold those assets, we will have immediately an income due to that sells. Also, there are other cases due also and thanks to the collaterals that we are negotiation recoverings before going at the next step in the judicial process.
We have some cases in the pipeline in order to see that we can affirm that we will have some recoveries in this year due the advanced process we have for those recoveries.
Brian Flores
Perfect. Very clear.
Operator
Thank you. We have not received any further questions at this point, I will now like to hand the call back over for some closing remarks.
Edgardo del Rincón
Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us today. We remain available to address any follow-up questions via email and any meeting request.
We look forward to speaking you again in April 2026 when we release our first quarter 2026 results. Thank you very much and have a nice day.
Operator
That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.
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