Attendo AB

Attendo AB

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EUR
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1.56BMarket Cap
Nov 06Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 20, 2026

Operator

Welcome to Attendo Q2 report 2026. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode.

During the questions-and-answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key 5 on their telephone keypad. Now I will hand the conference over to CEO Martin Tivéus and CFO Mikael Malmgren.

Please go ahead.

Martin Tivéus

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today we present Attendo's results for the second quarter of 2026.

As usual, we'll focus on the key drivers behind our performance, our operational progress, and how we continue to execute our strategy. I will start by giving a general update on the development in the quarter, and then our CFO, Mikael Malmgren, will take you through the financials in more detail.

Next slide, please. Let me start with the key highlights from the quarter.

I'm pleased to present a strong quarter with improved results in both business areas, driven by higher occupancy, improved operational efficiency, and a strong delivery on our quality indicators. Customer satisfaction reached the highest level we have measured so far, and employee satisfaction continues to improve from already high levels.

While reported net sales increased by 1%, underlying growth in continuing operations remains strong at around 5%. The delta is explained by ended or ending outsourcing and home care contracts in Sweden, as well as currency effects.

Profitability improved significantly, with lease-adjusted EBITA increasing by 56% to 321 million kronor. On a rolling 12-month basis, lease-adjusted EBITA margin improved by 2 percentage points to 7.8% for the group.

Adjusted earnings per share increased by close to 80% in the quarter, and we delivered a strong free cash flow of 269 million, supporting increased investments in new capacity. By continuing to develop quality of care and by adding new capacity to society, we are part of the solution to the care challenges of both today and tomorrow.

Next slide, please. Before going into the quarter in more details, just let me briefly recap the plan we presented in February.

Since 2023, we have doubled our adjusted earnings per share from 3 kronor to 6 for the full year 2025. That was the delivery of our previous financial plan.

In February this year, we announced a new financial target to reach an adjusted EPS of at least 9 kronor per share by 2028. In other words, another 50% increase from last year's level.

We illustrated the EPS journey from 6 to at least 9 kronor per share with three building blocks. The first building block is margin improvement in Scandinavia, where we communicated an expected margin uplift throughout 2026, driven by improved staffing accuracy, focus on own operations, exiting of unprofitable contracts, and improvements in ways of working.

As we can see in our Q2 numbers, and also later in this presentation, the margin uplift in Scandinavia is already well under way. The second building block is our core growth model that we have followed over the past five years, what we call the balanced growth model.

I will return to that in a moment. The third building block is active capital allocation, primarily through continuous share buybacks conducted within our mandate, where we target to buy back around 5% of outstanding shares per annum.

After the second quarter of 2026, our rolling 12-month adjusted EPS reached 7.14 kronor, well on our path towards our financial target of reaching at least 9 per share by 2028. Let me now just spend a moment on the balanced growth model itself.

Next slide, please. Our model for balanced growth contains several growth levers that over time can fluctuate a bit between quarters and years, but together they build up to an EBITA growth of at least 10% per annum.

New capacity through greenfield openings contributing to average around 2% to 3% growth per year, margin-accretive bolt-in acquisitions contributing around 2%, occupancy improvement, where we assume at least 1 percentage point of improvement per year in existing capacity. That 1% point higher occupancy, together with better ways of working, typically also translates into higher productivity, contributing to around 2%.

Further, we have economies of scale effects, and finally price compensating for annual cost inflation. On top of annual growth in EBITA, continuous share buybacks supports an even higher growth rate in adjusted earnings per share.

As I said in the beginning of this presentation, in this quarter we were in line with or ahead of plan on all these growth levers. The panels show you three where we have the most to report today, which is new capacity, acquisitions, and occupancy.

Next slide, please. Starting with new capacity.

This slide shows our project pipeline. As you can see, we now have around 900 places under construction: 600 in Finland, around 300 in Scandinavia, and we have signed agreements for further close to 600 places where construction has not yet started.

Over the next 12 months, we will open around 770 new places across Finland and Sweden. Already, the construction-started projects, as you can see, now corresponds to around 4% of our total capacity.

After planned closures of units with low occupancy or weak economics, that well supports the 2% to 3% net capacity growth in our balanced growth model, and gives us good visibility on openings into 2027 and 2028. Next slide, please.

The second growth lever is M&A, where we over time expect around 2% EBITA growth per annum. Our approach is to acquire high-quality, margin-accretive bolt-ons in segments we know well, and we integrate them into our own quality systems and ways of working.

Year to date, we made four transactions: two smaller bolt-ons in Finland completed earlier in the year, and another two strategic acquisitions signed during the second quarter. One is Skånegården in southern Sweden with nine units within disability care, individual and family care, and elderly care, and the other one being A-Klinikka in Finland with 17 units within substance abuse and addiction treatment.

Combined, these businesses represents around 450 million kronor in net sales and around 50 million kronor in lease-adjusted EBITA before synergies. That corresponds to roughly 4% EBITA growth relative to our 2025 results.

Hence, we've already delivered more than the full-year ambition of at least 2% from acquisitions. Further, A-Klinikka in particular strengthens our position in specialist care in Finland and broadens what we can offer the welfare regions.

Next slide, please. The third growth lever is occupancy, and here we continue to deliver above the 1 percentage point per year that we assumed in the model.

We ended the quarter at 88% for the group, up around 2.5 percentage points year on year. In Scandinavia, we see a clear improvement in occupancy from more sold beds and from active capacity management.

During the quarter, we closed one old nursing home with poor location. In Finland, occupancy was 87% against 85% last year, and stable sequentially.

The second quarter is seasonally softer in Finland in combination with several openings during the quarter. Occupancy carries a very high drop-through to earnings, and we continue our path back to our target of reaching at least 92% average occupancy for the group, which is in line with historical levels.

Next slide, please. Let's turn to the development of our rolling 12-month lease-adjusted EBITA margin.

We see a continued margin uplift in both business areas, both sequentially and year on year. Rolling 12-month group margin is up 2 percentage points from a year ago to 7.8%.

Finland has now delivered a steadily improving margin trajectory for 14 consecutive quarters. In Scandinavia, we expect to continue to gradually improve margins during 2026.

You can also note that rolling 12-month net sales has been broadly flat at around 19 billion for a number of quarters, as an effect of the transition in Scandinavia in combination with currency effects. We expect to gradually return to net sales growth from the second half of this year, as the effects of the transition in Scandinavia wears off in combination with acquisitions.

With that, I hand over to our CFO, Mikael Malmgren. Please go ahead, Mikael.

Next slide, please.

Mikael Malmgren

Thank you, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Let's take a look at the sales development for the quarter.

Reported net sales increased by 1.3% to north of 4.7 billion kronor. Our continuing operations grew by 4.9%, with growth in both business areas, where Scandinavia grew 7%, driven by more sold beds in own homes and price.

Finland grew close to 4%, excluding the divested individual and family care business and currency, driven mainly by own nursing homes. However, reported growth was partially offset by firstly, ended and ending outsourcing and home care contracts in Scandinavia, which reduced reported net sales by 113 million.

Secondly, last year's divestment in Finland impacted sales by 24 million. Finally, FX headwind had a 22 million negative impact.

Ending and exiting contracts' net sales impact will gradually wear off during the remaining part of 2026 and first half-year of 2027. In Scandinavia, only two decided outsourcing exits remain in the portfolio, and both leave in the fourth quarter of this year.

Next slide, please. Moving to EBITA development.

Reported EBITA improved by 121 million to 470 million. Lease-adjusted EBITA increased by 116 million to 321 million, and up 56% versus same period last year.

The improvement is broad-based, with lease-adjusted EBITA in Scandinavia improving 62 million, and substantially higher than last year, and Finland also performing very well, improving lease-adjusted EBITA by 53 million, excluding FX effects. Group and other items was broadly neutral in the quarter, and currency had a marginal effect on reported EBITA and lease-adjusted EBITA.

Next slide, please. Turning to Finland.

Net sales was 2.8 billion kronor, up 1.9% reported and 2.7% adjusted for currency. Excluding the divested business and currency, growth in continuing operations was approximately 4%, driven mainly by more sold beds in primarily own nursing homes.

Going forward, we expect to see continued growth, driven by new openings and further supported by recent acquisitions. Lease-adjusted EBITA was 235 million against 183, an increase of 29% or plus 52 million, with the margin improving to 8.4% from 6.7%.

Earnings improved in all segments, but the largest contribution came from care for older people. Two things drive it.

First, occupancy, up to 87% from 85% last year, supported by higher inflow of new residents and a well-managed start to the summer period. Second, staffing is now well-matched to the needs of the operations, driven by investments in staff development, working conditions, support systems, and improved sick leave.

This has been our biggest focus on our agenda in Finland for the past two years. Occupancy development was further supported by our active work to improve our geographical footprint.

On capacity, we opened three new homes with 103 places during the quarter. We also took over one home with 59 places and high occupancy from a welfare region.

At the same time, we continued to improve our geographical footprint, closing down around 100 places in units with low or no occupancy. We also started construction of two new homes with 65 places.

During the quarter, we had a positive net inflow of new customers, and as a result, occupancy was stable despite some summer seasonality. Looking ahead, we plan to sustain our investment in new capacity, with currently 600-plus places under construction in Finland, of which 440 are planned to open during 2026.

In addition, we have a strong pipeline of signed lease agreements equal to a further 270-plus places where construction has not yet started. Finally, as Martin covered earlier, we completed one bolt-on acquisition in Finland during the quarter, and A-Klinikka, an additional strategic acquisition, closed on August 1st.

A-Klinikka is expected to deliver incremental EBITA from January 1st onwards, post integration is completed. Next slide, please.

Turning to Scandinavia. As communicated already last year, we expect to improve margins in Scandinavia during the whole 2026.

In Q2, growth in continuing operations was 7% and offset by ending outsourcing and home care contracts. In line with our financial plan and margin uplift in Scandinavia, lease-adjusted EBITA increased more than 60 million to 106 million, with the margin improving to 5.4% from 2.2%.

The improvement has three key drivers: higher occupancy in our own homes, better operational efficiency, primarily more accurate staffing planning, and improved central support function ways of working. In addition, the second quarter of last year carried nonrecurring costs in home care contracts that were being exited.

Also in Scandinavia, we continue to improve our geographical footprint, closing one own nursing home, which had zero occupancy already end of Q1, and which will have a positive impact on the results going forward. At the same time, we're starting to increase our investments in new capacity, with new openings from Q4 onwards, and so we expect to see gradually positive net sales growth, further supported by the recent acquisition Skånegården.

Next slide, please. As mentioned previously, net sales growth in continuing operations grew 7% in the quarter to 1.9 billion, and lease-adjusted EBITA grew close to 80%.

This marks the third consecutive quarter of improved margins, reaching 5.7%. At the same time, the ended and ending contracts decreased 130 million.

The revenue base is now small, and the impact year over year will continuously diminish over the next couple of quarters. As a result of our actions, total lease-adjusted EBITA increased 141%, with the margin now up to 5.4%.

Next slide, please. We continue to see strong free cash flow on a rolling 12-month basis.

That said, free cash flow to firm was slightly lower in the quarter due to timings of working capital. The working capital effect was negative 53 million in the quarter against positive 178 million last year.

The change is the main explanation for the year-on-year movement in free cash flow, where the comparison quarter had a more favorable working capital timing development. There's no change in the underlying payment behavior, and we expect this to be reversed ahead of next quarterly update.

CapEx investments was stable at 44 million against 49 million, again a positive reminder of how capital-light our business model is. Free cash flow to firm was therefore 269 million in the quarter and 1.2 billion on a rolling 12-month basis.

Worth noting is that we paid our first of two dividends, 129 million, and we repurchased shares of 241 million against 36 million in the comparison quarter. Since start of share buybacks in February 2024, we have repurchased 5% of outstanding shares on average per year, and a pace we aim to at least continue.

As such, I'm happy to announce that the board has approved a new repurchase program targeting to repurchase an additional 250 million worth of shares until the time of the Q3 report in November. Next slide, please.

A quick look at key metrics, all of which continue to move in the right direction and ahead of plan. Starting with the earnings per share bridge on the right.

Adjusted earnings per share improved by 79% from 0.85 to 1.52 kronor. By far the largest contribution comes from the higher lease-adjusted EBITA, at around 0.8 kronor per share.

Financial items contribute positively as financing costs come down. Tax takes some of back as expected on higher profits, and buybacks adds further.

On a rolling 12-month basis, adjusted earnings per share is now 7.14 kronor. If we look at the top right, the rolling 12-month lease-adjusted margin was 7.8%, up from 5.8% a year ago, and improving every quarter throughout the period.

At the bottom left, our leverage was 1.1 times, down from 1.7 times comparable period, and in line with previous quarters. Going forward, we expect leverage to increase slightly due to increased investments in new capacity, the recent acquisitions in both Scandinavia and Finland, and due to our active capital allocation.

Bottom right, net interest expense was 25 million in the quarter against 31 million. During the quarter, we also refinanced the company 1.5 years ahead of time, improving our financial flexibility by an additional 1 billion SEK.

With improved financial flexibility, supported by our bank group, we are confident to be able to sustain our investments in acquisition, add new capacity, and maintain an active capital allocation. At the same time, we expect a gradual improvement in the net interest expense as the effects of the refinancing comes through.

With that, I hand over to you, Martin.

Martin Tivéus

Thank you, Mikael. Next slide, please.

Let me summarize. Most importantly, we continue to deliver appreciated care, creating value both for individuals and for society.

Our latest surveys show record-high and stable satisfaction across stakeholder groups, which confirms the resilience and sustainability of our operating model. For us, delivering high quality of care is not only our mandate for long-term growth, it's also part of our promise to society to deliver better and more appreciated care at a lower cost to society.

The high and stable quality across our operation is paired with strong financial performance, driven by continued improvement in occupancy and strong operational efficiency. We also continue to strengthen our geographical footprint by gradually leaving less attractive areas and opening new units in locations with stronger long-term demand and better economics.

With the two strategic acquisitions made during the quarter, we're already ahead of our M&A ambition for the full year. For the second quarter, rolling 12-month lease-adjusted earnings per share increased to 7.14 kronor, well ahead of plan towards reaching at least 9 kronor per share in 2028.

Our strong financial results and cash flow enable increased investments in new capacity to meet the growing demand for care in society. Currently, we have around 900 new care beds under construction and a total pipeline of close to 1,500 places, capacity that will be well-needed given the demographic situation in the Nordics.

Overall, Attendo is well positioned to meet increasing care needs in society while delivering sustainable and profitable growth for shareholders. With that, thank you for your attention, and let's open up for questions.

Operator,

Operator

please go ahead. If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue.

If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Björn Olsson from SEB.

Please go ahead.

Björn Olsson

Good morning, guys. Firstly a question on Scandinavia.

The margin uplift you described, what was I guess a mix of improvements on all fronts, but could you break down the different components in terms of how much was the occupancy improvement adding versus the efficiency effects? Given the high occupancy rate in Scandia at the moment, I would assume that the margin improvements to come are from efficiencies.

Then would you say that the sort of the potential margin level then, if operating at peak efficiency, should that be sort of approaching the Finland level or could you get a bit of a flavor, yeah?

Martin Tivéus

As we generally don't guide on margins or margin breakdowns, but on the improvement in Scandinavia, as I said, we communicated that already last year that we foresee a gradual margin uplift in Scandinavia throughout 2026 and a bit into 2027, due to the transition that we are working on in terms of moving away from outsourcing contracts and unprofitable contracts, with a focus on own operations. That in combination that the demand growth that we're seeing in society also make that the fill-up pace goes faster now than it did a couple of years ago.

The new units that we opened during 2025 are basically already full. What you're seeing here is a combination of the transition towards a clear focus on own operation in combination with occupancy improvements and ways of working.

That it will continue for another couple of quarters.

Björn Olsson

Okay. Thanks.

As I know that you don't guide, but I guess we should then assume that the sort of the peak margin is still at a lower range than in Finland?

Martin Tivéus

We've said historically that the ways of running operations in Scandinavia is slightly different and more complex than running operations in Finland. In Finland, you have a national regulation with the same ways of working across all units, whilst in Sweden that is more directed at municipality level, which then leads to slightly more complex ways of working and increased cost.

Structurally, there is a slight difference between mature margin levels in Finland and Scandinavia, yes.

Björn Olsson

Makes sense. Then just on Finland.

Your occupancy level has flattened out. Do you still improve margins by optimizing the staffing?

Are you done with that work now, or do you see additional efficiency gains at the structural margin-improving level from here as well?

Mikael Malmgren

We operate now at a strong operational efficiency level that we're happy with. We're not still happy with the occupancy level, so that is something that we foresee should be going up till we reach target of at least 92% occupancy level.

Q3 is seasonally a bit softer in terms of occupancy because you have a tradition also in Finland to take home people during summer breaks and so forth. Also, we are investing more in new capacity growth in Finland, we're entering now, as you know from this quarter and onwards, a period of stronger opening pace or higher opening pace.

Of course, that will also at this short term might hold back occupancy growth before it continues to grow.

Björn Olsson

Crystal clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Anna Salamon from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Anna Salamon

Thank you. You've now completed two acquisitions post quarter and are already ahead of the plan on the full-year M&A target.

Does that mean you're accelerating the pace further, or are you more pausing or slowing down for now?

Martin Tivéus

We have our disciplined approach to acquisitions, we acquire only margin-accretive, high-quality, well-run companies. We have a strong M&A team, both in Finland and Sweden.

They continue to working on the pipeline. It's difficult to plan exactly when sellers are willing to sell.

The fact that we reached 4% this year doesn't mean that we will stop looking for good acquisitions. We are continuing that work in the same pace as forward as we have been.

If we can do more than the at least 2% that we have in the model, then we're just happy.

Anna Salamon

Perfect. Thank you.

Regarding occupancy, which is improving in both segments, in which of the two do you see more room to keep pushing higher from here, and do you see a potential ceiling in any or both of the segments? We said that

Martin Tivéus

the first target is to come back to the at least 92% that was our historical average pre the pandemic. Having said that, we don't see that as a roof.

We said that that's where we at least should come back to. Mind you that the next 15 years will be a pretty long period of structurally growth in underlying demand, especially within elderly care.

That also means that we foresee that we will fill up new facilities faster, and it also might lead to higher occupancy levels than we've seen historically. Everything we've guided for is that we're going to at least 92%.

On the other hand, we shouldn't talk about that as a peak, because we've said that before that if you look at typically in larger cities, we have higher occupancy earlier. If you look at Stockholm, for example, we're operating at above 98% occupancy currently, 92 is not a physical threshold.

Anna Salamon

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Julia Angeli Strand from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

Julia Angeli Strand

Hi, and thank you for taking my questions. I'll stick to three and take them one by one.

Firstly, a follow-up on Scandinavia. I believe you communicated in Q1 or that Q1 was the peak of underabsorption of cost, and that improvement in terms of margin should strengthen throughout the year.

Is this the case in Scandinavia still, or how should we look at H2?

Martin Tivéus

Thank you, Julia. As we communicated already in Q4, we expect the margins to gradually improve throughout 2026, and we have not changed that view.

Julia Angeli Strand

That's clear. Then to my second.

Could you give us a sense on what the net impact of beds in H2 will be, just so we can balance the openings and the terminations you have, we don't get too excited on sales?

Martin Tivéus

That's a detailed question. Not sure if I can answer that straight away, Julia.

Julia Angeli Strand

Okay.

Mikael Malmgren

What we do expect is a gradual improvement in growth, also reported, from the low levels.

Julia Angeli Strand

Sorry, can you repeat that?

Mikael Malmgren

What we do expect is a gradual improvement in also reported net sales from the low levels.

Julia Angeli Strand

Okay. Got it.

Then lastly, I know that you said you will increase the investment pace, and that sounds very supportive for demand and the sector as a whole. When you updated the financial target earlier this year, you sort of implied that you had the large investment phase behind you and that you were aiming for more balanced growth.

Will this have any visible effects on earnings or impact cash generation?

Martin Tivéus

If we look at increasing investment pace versus our balanced growth strategy, we would say that this is balanced growth. Balanced growth means that we will grow with the market in a pace where we believe that we can fill new open capacity within about a year's time, we can grow sustainably and don't sacrifice margin.

Now we are entering a period of stronger demand growth. It comes a little earlier in Finland, and we can see that we're starting already this year with increasing opening pace.

Then we gradually starting increasing opening pace also in Sweden basically from year-end and onwards. That is in line with the underlying demand growth, we believe that we can do that without sacrificing margin.

Julia Angeli Strand

Sounds good. Thank you.

Those were my questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Kristofer Liljeberg from DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Kristofer Liljeberg

Hi. Sorry for the background.

Two quick questions. First, on the improved occupancy in Scandinavia, is it possible to break that into how much places that you closed down and how much was from demand?

Then on Finland, if you could comment about the outlook to improve occupancy Finland short, and into that question also a little bit about how the demand looks like. Thank you.

Martin Tivéus

Yeah. We closed one nursing home in Sweden during the quarter.

That's it. The rest is sales-driven.

If we look at Finland, so as I said, Q3 is normally a bit softer. We also, combination of new openings plus seasonally a bit softer in terms of occupancy.

We expect to return to sales and occupancy growth in Finland forward.

Kristofer Liljeberg

There is

Martin Tivéus

no change in our target to reach minimum 92.

Operator

The next question comes from Filip Wetterqvist from SB1 Markets. Please go ahead.

Filip Wetterqvist

Good morning, guys. I have two questions.

I take them one by one. First one on Scandinavia or Swedish elderly care, we see Ambea expanding its capacity quite rapidly, and even though you're expanding capacity as well, it's well below Ambea's pace.

What's the strategic reasoning behind not expanding at the same pace, given the significant current and expected shortage of nursing homes in Sweden?

Martin Tivéus

I guess it depends on your perspective, but yes. Short term, in the next couple of quarters, it's a slightly lower opening pace.

Then we also see an increased pace during 2027 and onwards. We are a bit ahead in Finland because we believe that the demand for elderly care is slightly stronger there and comes a bit earlier.

Filip Wetterqvist

All right. Then Ambea has also signed several contracts in Denmark in recent months as conditions for private elderly care appears to have improved there.

Are you also looking at opportunities in Denmark, and how do you assess the current potential in the Danish market?

Martin Tivéus

As I said, we have three elderly care units up and running in Denmark at the moment. Yes, we're also looking at new opportunities in Denmark, but we are also assessing the new regulation, because we want to see it play out in practice, not only on paper.

We are testing the regulation during 2026 and we'll decide from thereon how we move on in Denmark.

Filip Wetterqvist

All right. Thank you.

Operator

There are no more phone questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Martin Tivéus

Thank you, guys, for listening in. Appreciate good questions.

If you have any further questions, just don't hesitate to contact us after the call. Thank you for listening in, and have a good day.

Mikael Malmgren

Thank you very much.