Poste Italiane SpA

Poste Italiane SpA

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Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 13, 2025

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to Poste Italiane third quarter and nine months 2025 results conference call. Shortly, our CEO Matteo Del Fante will take you through some opening remarks and then the CFO Camillo Greco will cover the financials.

As usual, the presentation will be followed by Q&A session where you can ask questions either by phone or through our webcast platform. For any topics we won't be able to cover today, please do contact the Investor Relations team, we will provide any clarifications you might require.

With that, over to you Matteo.

Matteo Del Fante

Thank you Giuseppe. Good morning and thank you for joining us today for our Q3 and nine months 2025 results call.

As we celebrate 10 years since going public, we're proud to report another record-breaking quarter, reflecting sustained growth as we approach the end of 2025. The positive momentum established in the first half of the year has continued in the third quarter.

We remain focused on executing our strategic plan and we're fully on track to achieve our updated '25 guidance. In the first nine months, we delivered record results across group revenues, adjusted EBIT, and net income.

Each business unit contributed to a robust 4% year-on-year increase in top line, reaching €9.6 billion in total revenues. Adjusted EBIT grew by 10% to just over €2.5 billion for the period, and net profit reached €1.8 billion, representing an impressive 11% compared to the previous year.

Since the start of the year, we have seen solid net inflows into investment products, confirming strong commercial performance in insurance products and improved net inflows in postal savings. I'm pleased to report that the migration of our clients to the SuperApp has been successfully completed.

To date, the app is used by 15 million clients with 4.1 million daily active users in November '25, which is more than our previous apps combined and the highest level among Italian apps. Our balance sheet remains extremely solid, with our insurance Solvency II ratio at 312%, well above our stated ambition of 200%, providing us with significant financial flexibility.

On November 26, we will pay a record interim dividend of 40 cents per share, totaling €518 million, up a remarkable 21% from last year. I'm pleased to share that our initiative to unlock synergies with TIM are currently underway.

At the end of September, we launched TIM Energia powered by Poste Italiane in more than 750 TIM retail outlets. This marks a significant step in combining the strength of both organizations, expanding our retail customer reach through TIM's network and Poste Italiane trusted energy offering.

In the coming months, we will continue the strengthening of the strategic partnership and roll out additional joint initiatives to deliver synergies and value creation for all stakeholders. While our investment in TIM remains strategic, we're also pleased to note that the value of our stake has nearly doubled, now at €1.1 billion.

These results underscore the strength of our business model, flawless execution, and our ability to adapt and grow in a dynamic environment, all while maintaining strict cost discipline. Let's move to group financial results on slide 4.

Poste delivered a very strong performance in the third quarter and first nine months of the year. These were the best Q3 and nine-month results ever reported by the group in terms of revenues, EBIT, and net profit.

Focusing on the nine months, revenues at €9.6 billion, up 4% year on year; adjusted EBIT at €2.5 billion and net profit at €1.8 billion, up a remarkable 10 and 11% respectively. In the quarter, we achieved record group revenues at €3.2 billion, up 4% year on year.

Adjusted EBIT reached €856 million and net profit is at €603 million, up 8 and 6% respectively. On slide 5, the strong revenue momentum across all our business segments continues into the year.

In Mail, Parcel & Distribution, revenue growth was driven by higher parcel volume and supported by increasing client diversification. The anticipated decline in mail volume is effectively mitigated through ongoing repricing actions.

In Financial Services, revenue increased by 5% year on year to €4.2 billion, supported by NII and solid commercial performance. Insurance Services delivered strong profitability in both life and protection segments.

Revenues rose 10% in the nine months, reflecting stable CSM and higher release. Postepay Services' unique and integrated ecosystem of everyday services delivered sustainable revenue and profitability growth.

The telco customer base remains solid and stable, while the number of energy clients has grown to approximately 950,000, on track to reach the target of 1 million clients by year-end. TIM Energia powered by Poste Italiane launch on September 29 will provide an additional boost to this business.

Let's go to slide 6, an EBIT evolution by segment. Mail, Parcel & Distribution reported an adjusted EBIT of €137 million for the nine months, in line with our full-year guidance.

Financial Services operating profitability is up around 23% in the nine months to €790 million, driven by NII and overall stronger revenue trends. In the nine months, Insurance Services adjusted EBIT is up 9% to €1.2 billion, supported by both life investment and protection.

Finally, Postepay Services EBIT growth of 9% to €416 million is driven by resilient top-line performance, significantly outperforming the market. On slide 7, let's take a closer look at what we're building through our strategic partnership with TIM.

Several workstreams are underway to maximize synergies between the two groups. We have signed a contract that will allow the migration of PosteMobile MVNO operation to the TIM mobile infrastructure starting in Q1 2026.

On the commercial front, we have reached the first significant milestones with the launch of TIM Energia powered by Poste Italiane, now available through more than 750 TIM retail offices, with very encouraging early results. Looking ahead, we're actively working on additional cross-selling opportunities on both retail and SMEs customers, including in the areas of insurance and payments.

At the same time, we're exploring cost-efficiency initiatives through joint procurement. We will communicate these developments to the market in a phased manner as relevant agreements are finalized.

Poste Italiane is taking a decisive step forward in digital innovation through a new joint venture with TIM Enterprise dedicated to cloud-related IT services. This partnership will drive Italy's cloud transformation, harnessing the potential of generative AI and open-source technologies.

Our mission is to accelerate the nation digital evolution, empowering public administration and private enterprises with secure and advanced solutions. The joint venture will deliver services across both leading public cloud platforms and sovereign national infrastructures.

With that, let's look at the detail of the financials. Over to you, Camillo, please.

Camillo Greco

Thank you Matteo, and good morning everyone. Let's move to slide 9 on Mail, Parcel & Distribution.

Revenues amounted to €934 million in Q3 and €2.8 billion in the nine months, up 3 and 2% respectively. Mail revenues, €480 million in Q3 and at €1.5 billion year to date, are in line with our fiscal year '25 guidance presented in February.

Parcel revenues were up 10% to €420 million in Q3 and up 8% to €1.2 billion in the nine months, supported by all customer segments, which continue to improve our revenue diversification. Distribution revenues from other business units are up 3% in the nine months, reflecting positive commercial trends.

Adjusted EBIT at €137 million year to date is in line with the guidance provided for the full year. Let's look at volumes and tariff on slide 9 on slide 10.

Parcel volumes are up a solid 14% in Q3 and 12% in the nine months to 245 million items. In Q3, we also increased the portion of items delivered via the postal network to 45%, up 5 points versus last year, leading to a positive contribution to the overall profitability.

Looking at pricing, the average tariff was impacted by higher volumes with lower pricing and unit costs, as we continued to have high volumes in second-hand items and boxless returns. On mail, the volume trend is in line with expectations, showing a slower volume decline in Q3 compared to the first half of the year.

The bulk of the volume decline remains concentrated on lower-value items, such as direct marketing and unregistered mail. We continue to compensate the anticipated volume decline with ongoing repricing actions across both regulated and market products.

Moving to Financial Services on slide 11. Gross revenue for Q3 landed at €1.6 billion and just shy of €5 billion for the nine months, up 3 and 6% respectively.

Net interest income came at €669 million in Q3, up 3%, and at €2 billion year to date, up 6%, benefiting from higher average deposits and lower cost of funding. Postal savings distribution fees amounted to €443 million in Q3, up 3%, and €1.3 billion, up 5% year to date, supported by improved gross inflows driven by commercial initiatives, as well as longer maturity of products sold.

Consumer loans distribution fees reached €63 million in the quarter and €203 million in the nine months, both up 15%, driven by higher margins, confirming the strength of our multi-partner ship model. Asset management fees came in at €47 million in Q3 and €136 million in the first nine months, impacted by a different product mix with lower upfront fees, while AUM continued to grow thanks to positive net flows.

Finally, adjusted EBIT came in at €262 million in Q3, up 16%, and €790 million in the nine months, up 23% compared to 2024, on the back of strong revenue performance. Moving to slide 12.

TFA continued to grow, reaching €601 billion, up €10 billion from the start of the year. Let's look at each component.

We reported strong €2.3 billion net inflows in investment products, confirming the positive momentum in life insurance, where net inflows totaled €1.2 billion. Postal savings net outflows improved in Q3, supported by strong performance of 100-year anniversary postal bond.

Deposits were up, benefiting from stable retail balances at €58 billion, and higher, though more volatile, balances from PA clients. Moving to slide 12 12 Moving to slide 13.

Insurance Services revenues amounted to €446 million in Q3, up a strong 12% year on year, and €1.4 billion in the nine months, up 10%, supported by both life and protection. In Q3, we continued to report positive life net flows, driven by strong GWP, up 7% year on year, with an increased share of multi-class products now at over 70% of life investment and pension GWP.

Our advisory offering, built in the context of the new commercial service model, is leading to proactive rebalancing of our clients' portfolios, resulting in a lapse rate of 8.3% in the quarter, more than 50% of which have been reinvested into new life investment and pension products. Life investment and pension revenues are up 11% to €393 million in Q3 and up 10% to €1.2 billion year to date, on the back of stable CSM stock and higher CSM release.

Protection revenues were up a solid 11% in the nine months to €147 million, supported by higher gross written premium, and up 14% in the quarter. Combined ratio stood at 83%, while we confirm our fiscal year '25 guidance of about 85%.

Adjusted EBIT of €1.2 billion in nine months, up 9% compared to 2024 and up 11% in Q3, reflecting top-line trends. Our stock of CSM is stable at €13.7 billion, driven by strong new business and positive financial variances.

This provides us with strong visibility on the future profitability of the business. Normalized CSM growth stood at 3.5% on an annualized basis, up from 2% in 2024, with strong increase in new business value and expected return more than compensating the release.

Let's look at the solvency ratio evolution on slide 15. Poste Vita Group Solvency II was 312% at the end of September and well above the managerial ambition of circa 200% of the cycle.

This ratio already includes the impact of foreseeable dividend based on 100% net profit remittance. The marginal reduction in the ratio was mainly related to economic variances such as higher risk-free rates.

Our Solvency II ratio currently stands between 305 and 320%. Moving to Postepay Services on slide 16.

The Postepay ecosystem continues to represent a sustainable engine of growth, innovation, and customer engagement for the group. Revenues rose to €409 million in Q3 and €1.2 billion in the nine months, up 3 and 5% respectively.

Payments are up 1% to €298 million in Q3 and are up 2% to €878 million the first nine months, supported by transaction value growth of 10% in the quarter and 9% year to date, offsetting shortfall due to EU law change. We are significantly outperforming the market and growing our market share in a competitive environment.

Net of instant payment shortfall, payment revenue growth is at around 5% in both the quarter and the nine months. Telco revenues are stable in the quarter and are up 1% in the nine months to €247 million, supported by our resilient client base and the fiber offer.

Finally, energy net revenues totaled €86 million in nine months, reflecting an increased customer base that now stands at around 950,000 clients, and comfortably heading towards our 1 million client-base target by the end of the year. Adjusted EBIT grew a robust 6% to €140 million in Q3 and 9% to €416 million in nine months, underpinned by solid top-line performance and in line with guidance.

Since the start of the year, our average workforce has remained just under 120,000, consistent with the level of full year 2024, with hirings broadly offsetting exits of circa 6,000 FTEs. Our workforce productivity improved year on year, as the growth in value added per FTE exceeded the increase in HR cost per FTE.

Moving to group HR cost on slide 18. At the end of September, ordinary HR cost increased by 2% to just under €4.2 billion, due to higher FTEs, the new salary increase effective September 1st as part of the latest collective agreement, and variable compensation.

In the nine months, ordinary HR cost on revenues are down to 39% with improving operating leverage. Moving to slide 19.

Non-HR cost increased by €168 million year on year, mainly driven by €112 million additional variable COGS, reflecting higher business volumes. Fixed COGS are basically flat, while D&A are up by €54 million, in line with increased investments driving our transformation.

In general, our focus on cost and CapEx discipline across all divisions remains razor sharp, and protecting the bottom-line profitability, as well as cash flow, remains our top priority. Thank you for your time.

Let me hand over to Matteo for the wrap-up.

Matteo Del Fante

Thank you, Camillo. Following five straight quarter of record performance, we have once again achieved outstanding results, with nine-month revenues of €9.6 billion, up 4% year on year, and adjusted EBIT rising 10% to €2.5 billion.

On the strength of these results, we can confirm that we are absolutely confident of hitting our €3.2 billion adjusted EBIT and €2.2 billion net profit for 2025 guidance. We continue to build on solid momentum with a clear commitment to creating long-term value for our stakeholders.

Our focus remain on driving revenues growth and diversification, further improving our cost and capital efficiency, and maximizing the potential of people, technology, and data. We continue to maintain a robust balance sheet with low leverage and a Solvency II ratio at 312%, well above our managerial target.

This strong financial position provides us with ample flexibility and underpins our confidence in a competitive dividend policy. As results, we're distributing an interim dividend of 40 cents per share, up 21% year on year, totaling nearly €520 million to be paid to shareholders on November 26.

I'm pleased with the progress of our collaboration with TIM, which will generate meaningful synergies for both groups. The first of several projects, TIM Energia powered by Poste Italiane, was launched in September, is now available through more than 750 TIM outlets.

This partnership will deliver significant value for all stakeholders in future. Once again, these excellent results are a testament to the dedication and professionalism of our people, whose daily commitment remains at the heart of our success.

With that, thank you for listening, and Giuseppe, over to you for the Q&A.

Operator

Thank you Matteo, and let's start with the Q&A session. To ask a question, please press star one, and to remove yourself from the question queue, please press star two.

Please try to limit yourself to two questions. The first question is from Tommaso Nieddu at Kepler.

Please, go ahead Tommaso.

Tommaso Nieddu

Hello and thank you a lot for taking my questions. The first one is on the SuperApp.

The migration of the SuperApp has now been completed with 15 million users and over 4 million daily active users, which is kind of impressive. Could you elaborate on the next phase of that in terms of cross-selling across all your main verticals, I don't know, like payments, insurance, energy?

Any more color would be highly appreciated. Then on the SPID, you currently manage almost 30 million digital identities, and it's still growing.

If you can give us any update on a potential introduction of a fee-based model similar to other providers, basically if you could update us on your latest thinking around SPID monetization. Just a third one very very quick on insurance.

If you can give us more color on the negative operating variances that impacted the CSM evolution this quarter. Was it mainly different lapses assumptions?

Thank you a lot.

Matteo Del Fante

Thank you Tommaso. I'll take the first two and leave Camillo for the third one.

We're very proud that moving clients and users from one app that you close into a new app is a risky exercise, because there is an attrition percentage of clients that don't get used to the new app. Doing this migration process in a smart and organized way is crucial in terms of not losing business.

The 4.1 million daily active users, which is almost the double of the second Italian player on our data, is a level of daily active users that we never reached in the past, not even adding the daily active user on every single app we had in the past. That's good.

In terms of the revenue and business impact of the new app, we have basically an increase of the diversification and cross-selling that is coming with the use of the app. That cross-selling is increasing in a very meaningful way our revenue and margin figure.

We don't disclose our cross-selling indices, but I can tell you that a one additional product, moving by one our cross-selling index creates a multiple of revenues additional to the firm. This is really the way forward, and very happy with that.

Second question on SPID. Yes, since several months, several key identity provider under SPID have started asking a limited amount of money to users on an annual basis, something in the range of €6 to €7 per year per user.

That's something that we are observing in the market, and will make our consideration before we announce the plan in 2026. We're a strong believer of SPID.

We believe that SPID not only is serving over 1 billion cases of utilizations per year in public administration service providers, so that has become the standard and very effective standard with very good use cases for public service provider, but as there is also the use of SPID by private service provider that is increasing, is also creating meaningful and increasing revenues to Poste, but we believe that there is a huge potential in the system to double up from public to private service providers.

Camillo Greco

With respect to the last question on operating variances, the amount was driven by three different factors. The first was a higher degree of lapses, where, however, I want to remind the audience that half of that amount is of self-help, as we moved customers to more sort of market-oriented products, i.e., multi-class.

There is half of that lapse rate that is associated to that, around 4.3. The second point that impacted operating variances is an update of the mortality tables.

The third point was a time value of money related to the upfront payment for the insurance provider of stamp duty tax.

Tommaso Nieddu

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Alberto Villa at Intermonte.

Go ahead, Alberto.

Alberto Villa

Hi. Good morning.

Couple of questions from my side. One is regarding the trend in card stocks.

We have seen some decline there, especially for Postepay cards in total number, but then transactions and all the other metrics are positive. I was wondering if that's related to Reddito di Cittadinanza or other events that impact the number of cards issued.

The second one is if you can help us modeling for the financial income 2026. We have seen some different indications from banks regarding the evolution of NII.

Obviously you have different levers, but in order to understand what we can expect in terms of evolution of financial income next year, what to bear in mind. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante

On the first question, you have half of the answer related to the Reddito di Cittadinanza, but don't forget that we have started already five years ago a trip to replace our prepaid card, the yellow card, without IBAN, migrating into our Evolution. In the past five years, you had a very meaningful increase of the Postepay Evolution, that actually increased in the quarter by 3%.

We're now 10.7 million Evolution. Evolution is clearly for us producing €18 per year of revenues and giving to our clients the best proxy to a current account, because with the IBAN you can have your salary credited and you can do basically everything you do with a current account.

On the second topic of NII, obviously we will disclose our targets in 2026, but we see clearly a slightly lower interest rate environment, especially on the short term of the curve, and that means for our floating rate portfolio lower net interest income. As we say since ever, basically since March 18, we will always compensate lower NII with higher capital gains.

This I can make the statement today, will remain our objective also for 2026 and onwards. To that respect, I'm pleased to report, and this is really the market coming this way, that for the first time we have our investment portfolio that has a positive mark-to-market, is around €700 million as of yesterday, and on a gross basis we have over €2 billion of positive capital gains that we can use next year and onwards to sustain our investment returns with a slightly lower NII scenario.

Alberto Villa

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you Alberto. Next question is from Gian Luca Ferrari, Mediobanca.

Go ahead Gian Luca.

Gian Luca Ferrari

Sì, good morning. Two from me.

The first one is on the €1.8 billion revenue guidance on parcels. Even if I take a low end of this number, €1.75 [billion?]

, it would imply kind of 15% increase in parcel revenues in Q4, which seems to be implying a strong acceleration versus Q3. I was wondering if the €1.8 billion is confirmed or not.

The second is on the role of Net Insurance in the mandatory cat coverage for SMEs. I think Net Insurance will be your company dedicated to explore this opportunity, and can you confirm that you will not retain any cat risk, and Net Insurance and Poste Group will outsource to reinsurers all the cat risk?

Sorry, a final one if you can give us the impacts on the revision of the standard formula in 2027. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante

I will start with the first two and let Camillo go on the on the last one on the standard formula. Revenues.

Parcel revenues grew 7, 9, and 10% in Q1, Q2, and Q3. Q4 is the peak year is the peak quarter, sorry, Gian Luca.

Mm-hmm. That's where we usually more than outperform the market.

It's clearly ambitious, but if I look at the volumes, we have 12% growth in nine months and 14% growth in Q3. Certainly Q3 has shown an acceleration, and if I combine the acceleration of Q3 to the positive commercial momentum we have to the peak, hopefully we will get broadly in line with our 1.8.

We might be short a little bit if things don't go well, but we're broadly in line. The second question was Net Insurance.

Yes, is correct. One, Net Insurance is the company in the group that will take care of the new cat insurance product.

Two, it's correct the fact that it will be fully reinsured. Three, I can tell you that it's not a big budget product at the moment, but there is a strong focus, and all I can say at this point is that I'm relatively optimist that this will give us some additional growth in protection from '26 onwards.

On the third question on solvency regulatory changes and standard formula, please Camillo.

Camillo Greco

Okay. We do expect from 2027 a marginal improvement.

Think about mid-to-high single digit impact on our Solvency II ratio, that is driven mainly by two factors. The first one is the reduction of cost of capital for the calculation of the risk margin, and the second is the changes to the volatility adjustment.

Mid-to-high single digit can mean up to 10 points.

Gian Luca Ferrari

Thank you. Grazie.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Andrea Lisi, Equita.

Go ahead Andrea.

Andrea Lisi

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions.

Two from my side. The first one, I was really interested on having more detail for what you can share about the joint venture with TIM for cloud-based services.

What should we expect here? Obviously also the timing for the setup of this joint venture, the kind of services you expect to provide, and also obviously I know that it is really preliminary, but the kind of penetration and growth you expect to achieve here.

The second is on dividend. You have indicated that you want to keep the dividend policy really appealing for shareholders.

Also considering the interim dividend of 40 cents, what should we expect in terms of evolution of the dividend policy and the dividend payout? Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante

Thank you Andrea. The JV would require a bit more time, and I'm sure Pietro will do his own care and duty to explain it to investors along the road.

What I can tell you at this point in time is that there is a clear process of migration to cloud, which is not only moving data from on-prem data warehouses to cloud. The beauty of moving to cloud is changing your operation and using that data in a more flexible way.

It's adding services to clients that are moving to cloud. When TIM offers, and the commercial responsibility of the work of the JV remains with TIM that obviously has a commercial sales force dedicated to this, to migrate into cloud, increasingly they will add products, services, and value for clients.

When it comes to public sector clients, there is a couple of additional considerations that needs to be made. The first one is related to the PSN, the next-generation EU big effort, which has achieved a very meaningful result in terms of moving the majority of the public administration into cloud, and now is the second wave of increasing the services and the value of using that cloud for the public administration.

The JV will allow TIM to internalize some of the work and value-added integration of systems that was previously mainly outsourced. The second consideration is the preliminary indication we receive from core public sector clients, public administration clients, that this initiative and the role of TIM in this space is very welcome, because with our acquisition, we finally have in the country a national cloud provider, think about the sovereign cloud topic.

For example, in the current geopolitical situation, it's clearly a very hot topic in the hands of the public administration. Finally, there is an Italian player that gives total confidence to the public administration to move and use data in a smarter way in the future.

This is the role that the JV will have to perform in supporting the commercial activities of TIM. I think you will see more on this from TIM's side, especially, and also from our side, with the announcement of the 2026 guidance in Q1 of 2026.

Dividend, you said it all. We always stated that we want our dividend policy to be competitive, which basically means we look at our peer group that is clearly in the insurance space, that is clearly in the banking sector.

We look at the banking sector, including the buyback programs that we don't do. When the share performs, we have left some room in terms of dividend payout to follow and make the dividend, in terms of dividend yield, appealing and competitive to our investor base.

This is the work that we will perform over the next two to three months, and second half of February, when we will announce the 2026 preliminary results '25 results, '26 guidance, we will also have our position on 2026 dividend.

Andrea Lisi

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Daniel Wilson at Morgan Stanley.

Go ahead Daniel.

Daniel Wilson

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions this morning.

Just two: one on CDP and one on the Solvency II review again. On CDP, can you walk us through the kind of process of the renewal of the agreement with them, whether there's any potential upside to the floor and the ceiling of the fees you can generate on postal savings?

Secondly, on the Solvency II review, I know you spoke about it just now. I thought the mid-to-high single digits benefit seemed a little bit lower than I was expecting, especially given that you guys have quite a high risk margin versus your solvency capital requirement, and I would have thought that the kind of risk margin changes would have been a pretty big benefit to you guys.

I'm wondering what are the offsetting factors from the benefits you're getting to bring you to that mid-to-high single digit benefit. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante

I will let Camillo answer both questions. Thank you, Daniel.

Camillo Greco

The CDP agreement carries through until 20 the end of 2026 with respect to how the agreement is performing. I would say that it is performing well.

We had guided for the year at a number around €1.7 billion in terms of revenues. We are going to be at least towards the high end of that, and we still have an additional year to perform.

This was done in order not to have the agreement overlapping with the CEO potential change at the end of the summer. That is the first point.

With respect to the second question, I confirm that at this point the estimate is around 10 10 basis points from 2027. We have both positive and negative factors, but at this point you should stick to what we advise, which is around 10 basis points incremental benefit.

Percentage points, obviously.

Daniel Wilson

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Finally, we have a last question from Michael Huttner at Berenberg.

Michael, please go ahead.

Michael Huttner

Thank you very much. Thank you for a lovely presentation, as always.

Two: one is the €1.1 billion TIM valuation, where's that, or where's the benefit of that if you like, where can I see it? The second is on your lovely slides 36 and 37, where you talk about life net inflows and the mix between multi and segregated and all that.

The feeling I have, but I'm more interested in what you're saying is, you're not particularly interested at the moment in the big numbers, the volumes. Generali this morning announced that their volumes went from €3.3 billion in Q2 to €4 billion in Q3, quite an amazing number.

Your numbers are lagging a lot, but it's not a criticism, it's just an observation. The feeling I have is you're much more interested in transforming your portfolios and moving your policyholders from the old segregated accounts into the multi-class.

I wonder if you can explain how is that working and what's the benefit is, obviously both for your policyholders, but also for investors. Thank you.

Matteo Del Fante

Thank you Michael. I will let Camillo

Camillo Greco

answer the first one. Michael, on TIM, to be clear, the current market value of the stake is €1.9 billion, not 1.1.

€1.1 [billion] is roughly speaking the amount invested. Mm-hmm.

Michael Huttner

Where's the benefit of that? Where does it boost your solvency or your capital or anything?

Camillo Greco

No, no, no. The stake is equity accounted, we don't do any mark-to-market.

Basically, the changes in the accounting value will follow the pro-rata net profit and dividends of TIM going forward, there's no mark-to-market. Obviously, the mark-to-market is important from a balance sheet valuation perspective.

Basically if you want to be precise, if we had put a hundred 1.1 billion which we could have invested at, let's say, 3.5% in government securities, we are basically giving up around €40 million of NII. The strategy there is to extract two things.

The first one is synergies, and we already signed the MVNO contract, which is making us saving versus the previous contract €20 million per year from next year, so that's already in the bin. I mentioned several times in my presentation the Poste Energia contract sold, and that's additional value that is created by this partnership and this stake basically in our accounts.

I spend a few words on the JV, and there is certainly more to come in terms of synergies. That's the first block that will more than compensate the capital return that we would have had investing the €1.1 billion in government securities, which is, as the only thing we can do by law.

The second benefit for investor, Michael, will be once the company, and is already in the strategic plan announced by TIM, will start paying dividends. There will be a return on capital as an investor, and that return on capital now has also the benefit of being on €1.9 billion when we invested only 1.1.

It would be clearly more than compensating, it would be with a leverage component. The second question, I leave it to Camillo.

The second question was what are the trends towards shifting customer policies from capital guaranteed to partly non-capital guaranteed, and the answer is that, provided that customers we do interact have the right financial profile, moving from capital guaranteed to non-capital guaranteed in an environment where rates are expected to go down, the expected return of a non-capital guaranteed product is superior, the expected return for the customer should be to have a better return on the policy. As far as we are concerned, we have different pricing between capital guaranteed and non-capital guaranteed with the different mix that are sort of similar, but in the interest of customers, it's a more performing instrument in this rates environment.

Michael Huttner

Is there a capital benefit to you guys from doing this

Matteo Del Fante

in terms of less required capital?

Camillo Greco

There is a marginal benefit in terms of required capital for us, yes.

Michael Huttner

Excellent. Super.

Thank you so much.

Camillo Greco

Sorry, just the last word, Michael. The capital benefit is marginal because the equity exposure embedded in our multi-class is residual, our products always have, even if it is a multi-class contract, there is always a minimum of 60% of class I, and the 40% has, again, a fixed income component.

At the end, we have less release than doing purely equity-linked unit products.

Michael Huttner

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

That was the last question. Thank you very much for joining us today.

Camillo Greco

Thank you everybody.