Sylvamo Corporation

Sylvamo Corporation

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Nov 06Next Earn

Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for standing by.

Welcome to Sylvamo's first quarter 2026 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press *1 again. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

Hans Bjorkman

Thanks, Samantha. Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2026 earnings call.

Our speakers this morning are John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, and Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides 2 and 3 contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers.

For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-U.S.

GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to U.S.

GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the earnings release, as well as today's presentation.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

John Sims

Thank you, Hans, and good morning, everyone. I'm glad that you are joining our call.

I'm on slide 4. Today, I'd like to begin with a few important macro developments that have occurred since our fourth quarter call in February, which have led us to change our operating strategy to achieve our plans this year.

First, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs, and the U.S.

government responded to this by placing 10% tariffs on all trading partners. Europe had previously been at 15%, while Brazil was at 50%.

This change benefits Sylvamo, and late in the first quarter, we began to bring product into the U.S. from our Brazilian operations, while ramping down imports from our European operations.

Second, the Middle East conflict has resulted in higher energy, logistics, and input costs. Across our regions, we are looking to reduce costs and taking commercial actions to help offset these impacts.

Let's move to slide 5. Our first quarter highlights include implementing the previously communicated uncoated freesheet price increases to our customers across all our regions.

We had a difficult first quarter operationally. Reliability issues, particularly in Europe and Brazil, negatively impacted us by almost $9 million relative to the fourth quarter, and we expect some additional costs in the second quarter.

The root cause of these issues have been identified and fixed or will be corrected, and the annual outages will be taking this quarter. The one exception is that our Nymölla mill, where an issue with a debarking drum will not be corrected until the fourth quarter.

We took an important step in achieving our vision by launching our lean transformation journey in our Latin American business, along with our Mogi Guaçu mill. I was in Brazil last week and was very encouraged by the energy and commitment the teams have in learning and executing the lean transformation.

Lastly, yesterday we completed the refinancing of our 2027 debt to extend our maturity profile, which sustains flexibility and maintains our strong financial position. Let's move to the next slide.

Slide 6 shows our first quarter key financial metrics. As a reminder from our last call, 2026 is a transition year as we work through some short-term capacity constraints due to the termination of the Riverdale supply agreement at the end of April and the extended outage at Eastover later this year as we execute our strategic investments there.

Our first quarter results came in as expected, except for the operational issues I mentioned. We built inventory, which resulted in lower sales volume, and we also incurred the incremental costs due to sourcing and converting.

We earned an adjusted EBITDA of $29 million, with a margin of 4%. Adjusted operating earnings were -$0.53 per share.

As anticipated, free cash flow was impacted by lower earnings, the unfavorable impacts of our inventory build, and the timing of payments. Keep in mind that our free cash flow is heavily weighted to the second half of the year.

In the last few years, we generated the vast majority of our free cash flow in the second half, and we expect to do so again this year. Now I'll turn over to Don to review our performance in more detail.

Don Devlin

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Slide 7 contains our first quarter earnings bridge versus the fourth quarter.

As John mentioned, the quarter played out largely as we expected, with the exception of operations and other costs, which I'll cover shortly. In the first quarter, we earned $29 million of adjusted EBITDA, compared to $125 million in the prior quarter.

Price and mix were unfavorable by $13 million. Overall, mix was $17 million unfavorable, which more than offset the price improvements we saw in the quarter.

About half of the mix was due to seasonally weaker mix in Latin America, which is normal for Q1, and the other half was driven by unfavorable North American customer and sourcing mix. On the favorable side, paper prices improved in North America and Latin America as Q1 increases were implemented.

Paper prices in Europe bottomed out in the quarter, and previously communicated price increases are expected to realize in Q2. Volume decreased by $36 million due to normal Latin America seasonality and the anticipated inventory build in North America as we prepared for the end of the Riverdale mill supply agreement and the extended Eastover mill outage in the fourth quarter.

Operations and other costs were unfavorable by $29 million, with about half due to non-repeat of favorable fourth quarter items from year-end LIFO accounting in North America and green energy in Europe. The other half was related to $9 million in manufacturing costs across our regions that John described earlier, as well as $3 million in FX.

Planned maintenance outage costs were flat. Input and transportation costs were unfavorable by $18 million, primarily due to energy in North America, highly impacted by a one-time charge of $10 million from International Paper's Riverdale mill due to the exceptionally high natural gas costs from the winter storm.

Let's move to slide 8. European industry supply and demand remains challenging, but pulp prices improved throughout the first quarter, and we are realizing the previously communicated paper price increases in April.

We have communicated a second paper price increase effective in May, and expect the realization to occur through the second and third quarters. In Latin America, we moved from the seasonally strongest demand in the fourth quarter to the seasonally weakest first quarter, but now expect demand to increase each quarter throughout the year.

This should positively impact our volume and geographic mix as the year progresses. We are realizing the previously communicated paper price increases to our customers in Brazil and to our export customers across other Latin American countries, as well as the Middle East and Africa region, and should continue to see additional realization throughout the second quarter.

In North America, industry supply and demand dynamics have improved as 7% of annual uncoated freesheet industry supply was removed with the Riverdale mill conversion. After peaking in June of last year, imports into North America have declined significantly throughout the second half of last year and into the first quarter.

We also began realizing the previously communicated paper price increases to our customers and expect to see additional realization through the second quarter. We expect the Middle East conflict to continue pressuring costs across our regions as we go through the year.

We are already seeing increases in energy, chemicals, diesel, and ocean freight in the second quarter. Let's move to slide 9.

As John mentioned earlier, the changes in U.S. tariffs have led us to bring in product from our Brazil operations, while ramping down imports from our Europe operations.

Last quarter, we provided you with an estimate of the adjusted EBITDA impacts of the North American footprint transition, which we indicated was about $85 million negative for the full year. Assuming that tariffs remain at current levels, we now estimate total full-year impact to be around $65 million negative, which is $20 million improvement from our prior estimate, and will be realized mostly in the second half.

This improvement is the result of the mix improvement by redirecting our Brazil imports from the Middle East and Africa to the U.S. We will stay close to the situation and be prepared to go back to our prior plans should the tariffs increase in the second half.

Let's move to slide 10. Our capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged.

We will deploy every dollar with the goal of improving—let me go back. Excuse me.

We're on slide 10. This slide is to remind everyone of our planned maintenance outage schedule for the full year by region and by quarter.

We will have an increase of $20 million in the second quarter versus the first quarter as we have more outages in Latin America. 2026 is also different than past few years, where we have more than 80% of the total cost in the first half.

This year, we have more than 50% of the total cost in the fourth quarter as we complete the investments in Eastover. Now let's move to slide 11.

Our capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged. We will deploy every dollar with the goal of improving our competitive position and delivering the best possible shareholder returns over time.

We plan to maintain a strong financial position, reinvest in our business, and return cash to shareholders. The refinancing of our long-term debt allows us to navigate this uncertain environment without changing our thoughtful, long-term approach to capital allocation.

With a strong financial position, we can navigate the geopolitical and economic challenges and focus on improving customer experience, continue reinvesting in low-risk, high-return projects, as well as execute through the end of the Riverdale supply and the Eastover mill outage later this year. These investments and improvements will help to grow earnings and cash flow in the future.

Let's move to slide 12. Yesterday, we refinanced 2027 debt to extend our maturity profile.

We refinanced our term loan F that matured in 2027 with a new term loan F-3 that matures in 2032. We also extended our accounts receivable securitization facility out to 2029.

Here on slide 12, you can see the before and after picture of our maturity profile. This move provides flexibility and allows us to maintain our focus on taking care of our customers and improving our business while we navigate these external challenges.

Further details are in the appendix and will be included in our 10-Q that will be filed later today. I'll now turn the call back to John.

John Sims

Thank you, Don. I'll pick back up on slide 13.

Last quarter, I shared our vision that Sylvamo will be legendary. Legendary for the way we relentlessly pursue and achieve world-class excellence in all that we do.

Consistently performing at world-class levels will create substantial, lasting value for our employees, customers, and shareowners, and will enable us to be the employer, supplier, and investment of choice. Let's move to slide 14.

As we strive to achieve world-class standards in the areas that define our success, we are establishing an employee-driven continuous improvement culture by transforming the company to a lean-driven mindset. By incorporating a lean mindset and best practices into our everyday efforts across all functions, we expect significant improvement in the following areas: Customer centricity: Lean transformation will help to enable a new standard of customer experience and loyalty, where we strive to be truly outstanding, and this is critical to our strategy.

Operational excellence: Lean transformation will also help to enable best-in-class levels of efficiency, reliability, and performance in our mills and supply chains, ensuring that our operations consistently deliver to the highest standards. Cost leadership: The impact that lean transformation will have on our customer centricity and operational excellence should combine to enable us to attain industry-leading cost-effectiveness through an employee-driven continuous improvement culture, strengthening our competitive position and ensuring sustainable results.

Now let's go to slide 15. Lean is a long-term, company-wide strategic transformation, not a short-term change program.

Over the next 3 years, our objective is to embed continuous improvement into how we run the business so performance improvement becomes systematic and self-sustaining. Our lean transformation is focused on maximizing customer value by eliminating waste, improving performance, and engaging every employee, starting with a structured, hands-on rollout supported by expert partners.

We kicked off our efforts in our Latin American business, and have value stream mapping underway at our Mogi Guaçu mill to identify waste and unlock cost savings across end-to-end processes. We will also be conducting kaizen improvement events, driving employee engagement, and building a culture of continuous improvement from the ground up.

Later this month, we'll kick off our lean efforts in our North America business and across our corporate functions at our world headquarters. We'll then roll out lean at our Ticonderoga mill later in the second quarter.

We'll continue expanding across all regions, businesses, and locations, targeting efficiency improvements and margin gains. Let's go to slide 16, where I'll provide an update on our investments at our Eastover mill.

Our high-return strategic investments at our Eastover mill are on track and making solid progress. The paper machine optimization project will add 60,000 tons of uncoated freesheet, reduce costs, and improve our mix and efficiency.

This project is on schedule, with the bulk of the work to be completed in the fourth quarter during a 45-day planned maintenance outage. The brand-new, state-of-the-art sheeter is also on schedule and will start to be installed in the third quarter and will be ramping up in the fourth quarter.

The woodyard modernization project is on track. The hardwood line is operating as of May 1, and we're already seeing significantly improved chip quality and expect to see better yield going forward.

We plan to start up the softwood operation in the first quarter of 2027. These are high-return projects that will generate incremental earnings and cash flow for the long term.

Now I'll conclude my remarks on slide 17. As I stated in my CEO letter to shareowners earlier this year, 2025 and '26 will be low points in our free cash flow generation as we weather the cyclical industry downturns, particularly in Europe, and complete these investments at our Eastover mill.

We are focused on long-term value creation by making disciplined, data-driven decisions that position the company for sustainable success and strengthen Sylvamo for decades to come. We will generate strong and sustainable results by diligently executing our flagship growth strategy, adhering to our disciplined capital allocation principles, becoming more customer centric, institutionalizing lean continuous improvement and principles, and digitally transforming our business operations.

As industry conditions turn, our capital spending normalizes, and the benefits from our investments begin to materialize, we have the potential to generate annually greater than $300 million of free cash flow and greater than 15% returns on invested capital. With that, I'll turn it back over to Hans.

Hans?

Hans Bjorkman

Thanks, John, and thank you, Don. Samantha, we're ready for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press *1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality.

If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Your first question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Securities.

George, your line is open. Please go ahead.

George Staphos

Hi. Thanks very much, everybody.

Appreciate the detail. I'll ask a couple of questions and come back into queue, but I do have a bunch to go through.

I guess, first of all, John, the company talks about operational excellence, being legendary in terms of service and the like, and I recognize you're still early in that journey. That said, what was going on with operations reliability and that $9 million number that you called out, particularly in LatAm, as I recall, and correct me if I'm wrong, I thought LatAm was expected to be better operationally, or at least not as much of an issue as Europe in this quarter?

That's question number one. Question number two, you called out or pointed to some mix factors in North America in the first quarter.

What was behind that? Related to price, not expecting you to talk about future price increases forward-looking or whatever, but for the pricing that is in the markets right now in the publications, if we hold that, what price benefits do you get in 2Q versus 1Q sequentially or for the year?

Thank you.

John Sims

Yeah. George, thank you.

Thank you for joining the call and your questions. I anticipated the questions on the reliability issues, and yes, I guess key to our performance, if we're going to delight the customer, increase customer loyalty, reliability, and operational efficiency, it's critical that that's why we're implementing the lean process, but also we are strengthening and have been focusing on mill reliability processes and systems.

Biggest focus we've got there is ensuring that we're investing to maintain the equipment and also we're putting in the right processes and also training and development of our workforce, and those are all critical aspects to being world-class in that performance. We're clearly not there.

This is what this indicates, the issues that we've had is we've got work to do around our reliability. As it pertains to the particular items we had, both Mogi and Luís Antônio had issues in the power plant and also in the digesters that needed to be fixed actually in the annual outage.

Mogi is right now down, going through its annual outage. The issues that we had in the first quarter, we actually continued to see that in the first month of this quarter, and now we're planning on fixing that.

Luís Antônio's outage is not until June, we are continuing to struggle some there with with that mill and its performance, and that's driving higher increased operating costs, use of chemicals, and what not, that's impacting us. If you look at Europe, the biggest issue we had was Saillat.

There was a turbine generator that's operated by a third party that tripped, and the issues we had in Europe also occurred when it was a cold winter and probably the worst timing we could have, but this issue knocked the Saillat mill offline for a couple days until we could get back up and running. At Nymölla, we also had boiler issues at the beginning of the year.

Then as I mentioned, I think, in the prepared remarks, that we have two debarking drums in Nymölla, but one of the debarking drums, due to mechanical failure, is offline and we won't be able to fix that until the fourth quarter this year. I guess,

George Staphos

just before we go there, you describe what happened, but I guess my question would be following up, why? Why did the issues come up at Mogi and Luís Antônio?

Why didn't the team sort of determine what was happening and prevent it from occurring? The same thing in Nymölla, especially with the boiler and the debarking?

John Sims

Yeah. In terms of the why would be different for each of these, whether it's mechanical failure or an operating area.

We do a detailed root cause failure analysis on any of these significant events, and those have been done here. Then we put a lot of effort into ensuring that we correct and also communicate what we learned across those failures.

In all those cases, we think that except for the one in Saillat because that was out of our control, that was a third-party operator area, everyone points to an area where we've got to either improve our reliability processes systems and identifying those areas that could fail and making sure that we're taking corrective actions before that occurs, or training and improving the quality of our workforce so that the right operating decisions are made, and that's all what we're working on, George.

George Staphos

Okay. Appreciate that.

Don Devlin

John, I can take the

George Staphos

pricing and mix. Thanks, John.

Don Devlin

George, this is Don. I'll take that mix question.

George, Q1, a couple of big things in mix in Q1. In Latin America, it's seasonally weaker for us, and what's happened typically is there's less domestic Brazil volume, which is our most profitable, and more export as a percentage of the mix.

We expect that. It's normal for the quarter in Brazil.

What typically happens is it gets stronger as the year goes on all the way through the fourth quarter. In North America, it's a little different situation.

We are, as we prepare for the Eastover outage later in the year and the Riverdale supply agreement going away, we're using third-party sheeting. We're buying some volume from third parties, buying paper, and we're doing this so that we have the inventory to serve our customers and really preserve our customers as we ramp up Eastover later in the year.

That's a cost that shows up in mix because the margins on that either externally sourced or converted paper is a bit lower. Those are the two main reasons.

Really, we cited the North American piece as a one-time in our February call that we wouldn't expect to have next year as we ramp up Eastover and the sheeting operations in Sumter.

George Staphos

Okay. On the pricing impact?

John Sims

Okay. Yeah.

George, make sure I understand. Your third question was around the pricing realization?

George Staphos

Yeah. If we just hold where the publications are right now, what would it mean for benefit, if any, price-wise, 2Q versus 1Q or rest of year versus 1Q, however you want to discuss it?

Thank you.

John Sims

Sure, George. We announced increases across all the regions, I think it's best if we just go around the regions to talk about what we saw and what we're in the process of realizing from what we've announced to our customers.

In North America, we communicated a price increase of 5% to 8% range to our customers. We're realizing that increase within that range.

We start to see that in March, and the bulk of it we'll see that in the second quarter coming through. In Brazil, we announced a 5% increase on cutsize for January, and we realized about two-thirds of that in the first quarter.

In the other LatAm markets, we communicated about 7% increase for Q1, and we realized about one-third of that in the first quarter. That's about all we're going to get from that one, but we did announce a second increase of 7% to customers for the second quarter and will start to realize that in May.

In Middle East and Africa, and we export this mostly from Brazil, but also some from our European operations, we implemented a 4% increase in the first quarter, and we realized that in the first quarter. We're implementing a second increase for the second quarter, which we should start realizing in May.

In Europe, we communicated a 4% increase to our customers in the first quarter. In Europe, we actually saw prices go down in the first part, January, and then we started to realize this 4% increase, and we'll get about half of it through April.

That's probably about all we're going to get from that first increase. However, we communicated a second increase of 8% effective in May, and we expect to start realizing that in the second quarter.

George Staphos

You'd rather not give us a dollar number for 2Q versus 1Q at this juncture given all of that?

John Sims

That's right. Yep.

George Staphos

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets. Matthew, your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Matthew McKellar

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

A couple just on costs. Could you speak to the input and transportation cost pressures you're seeing?

Compared to where you were at the start of the year, what does that incremental headwind look like on an unmitigated basis? What amounts do you expect to be able to mitigate in some way?

Then just circling back on Nymölla's debarker, what's the ongoing cost impact there until you can address that in Q4? Is that just a cost issue, or are there constraints on production as well?

Thank you.

Don Devlin

Hey, thank you, Matt. This is Don.

I'll take those questions. Relative to costs and input and transportation, the cost in Q1 was relatively small, but as we look forward for Q2 in particular, we think it'll be about $15 million, and that's across things like chemicals, energy, and distribution.

It's split fairly evenly across our regions, roughly $5 million per region. For Nymölla, this debarking drum issue, it occurred in March.

We're incurring about $1 million to $2 million a quarter of additional cost, and the plan is to do the repair in September. The fourth quarter, we should see improved costs, and really what we're doing is we have no impact to production as we're sourcing external chips, and that's the incremental cost.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Thanks.

Maybe just as a follow-up there, the $15 million you called out, is that essentially the sequential impacts that we should expect quarter-on-quarter? Would you describe, I guess, the run rate cost impacts any differently based on current costs?

Thank you.

Don Devlin

It would be roughly that amount sequentially in Q2, yes.

John Sims

Matt, yeah, these are costs that are due to the Iran war, the situation Hormuz. How that plays out going forward, it's anybody's guess.

That's what we see at least essentially for the first or second quarter.

Don Devlin

Yeah. Matt, we had less than $2 million, $1 million to $2 million of what we would call war-related inflation in Q1.

It's 15 versus 1, call it. Roughly incremental 14.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Fair enough.

Then one more for me and I'll jump back in the queue. Pretty high-level question.

You've talked about having the potential to generate $300 million of annual free cash flow. When we think about your investments and expansion at Eastover, invest in LatAm fiber supply, lean transformation, and now prices inflecting in all regions, particularly maybe in North America where conditions seem quite tight, what else still needs to change in the markets or at Sylvamo specifically to drive you to that $300 million level in 2027, at least on a run rate basis, particularly if we strip out some of the remaining $15 million or so of Eastover spend, I think you've said, trickles into next year and maybe any ramp-up of your investments as well?

Thanks.

John Sims

Yeah. Matt, it's John.

I think you captured most of the big items. Certainly the Eastover investments and what we're doing there.

The better mix in Latin America from shifting exports to the U.S. Improving mid-cycle margins particularly in Europe, but also down in Brazil and in the other LatAm markets improvement there.

Lower cost and improved productivity, which we're going to be driving through the lean transformations, all the work that we're doing increasing reliability and workforce planning and training. Lower wood costs, particularly in Europe, and that's really driven by Nymölla, because we're seeing those decreases right now coming through.

We've talked about it, but we'll provide probably more detail around what we're doing with digital transformation as it pertains really to our mill system, as well as on the commercial area. We haven't really explained a lot of that, but we intend to do that future earning calls.

Then capital spending will normalize, after this investment at Eastover, we'll see capital spending come back to normal level.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Is it fair to say it's kind of continued execution of some of the programs within your control, and then markets getting a little better in both LatAm and European kind of regions?

John Sims

That's right. Yes.

I think that's correct.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Thanks.

I'll turn it back. I'll get in the queue.

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Harriman with Sidoti. Daniel, your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Daniel Harriman

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to follow up on Matt's last question.

I think the $300 million cash flow target for '27 came out prior to these price increases across all three of your regions. Just wanted to get a sense from you of where you see the stock's valuation right now and other uses of that cash.

I know there haven't been any share repurchases in the past two quarters. Not sure if that has to do with a leverage ratio you want to get to prior to getting back into the market.

Then also, around tariff sensitivity, based on the 10% tariff that's in place through July 24th, just curious how you're thinking about the second half if that tariff structure changes either way or gets worse. Would you go back to importing from Europe, or are you exploring other opportunities as well?

Thanks a lot. All right,

John Sims

Daniel. Let me talk about the 300.

If you remember even from my CEO letter, based on that was expectations that the markets and margins, particularly in Europe, would normalize. It wasn't sustainable with where the margins are in Europe and also in the other LatAm markets.

That was built into some of that when we think about the 300 achieving the $300 million of cash flow.

Don Devlin

I would add to that, Daniel, that a large portion of the path to this 300 is Eastover. We pointed out in our previous earnings call in February the one-times that we're experiencing, but will also see the benefits of additional volume from Eastover, which is our lowest cost mill.

A large portion of the 300 will be Eastover operating after the speed up and new sheeter, and that's a significant portion of the 300. Relative to We never said 2027.

I think this 300 is a goal for us in the future as the way John stated it in his CEO letter.

John Sims

Within 3 to 5 years.

Don Devlin

Within 3 to 5 years, yeah. Relative to to the stock, where we see the stock value and, if I step back and think about our cash situation for the year and our capital allocation strategy philosophy, we look at 2026, we've got big commitments both in Eastover.

Prior year, we returned last year 350% of our free cash flow to to shareowners. We're managing cash levels, as we focus on executing the Eastover footprint transition.

We're making big strategic investments at Eastover. We want to make sure we have a strong balance sheet through 2026.

I think our philosophy around share buybacks is the same, and it's that if we believe it's our intrinsic value, the share is trading less than our intrinsic value, then we will we will do buybacks. I think 2026, we're being prudent to manage through a very uncertain year with tariff changes, with economic changes, and and the Middle East conflict impacts as well.

I think we got to navigate 2026.

John Sims

Daniel, let me be clear that we believe that our share price right now doesn't reflect the intrinsic value of the company. We believe it's undervalued.

We're taking a very conservative approach to cash just because of the fact that we're in this transition period. There's a big use of cash in the first half of this year.

We've got a war and uncertainty. We're taking a conservative approach with our balance sheet.

We're deferring more to that than we are to taking opportunities to buy back our shares.

Don Devlin

I think to your last question, Daniel, relative to the tariffs, today the paper products from Brazil are subject to a 10% tariff under the Section 122, and it's consistent with the tariff applied to other countries. As of today, that expires late in July, July 24th.

We expect the administration will apply new tariffs on Brazil before that expiration of the Section 122 tariff. It's difficult to predict what level the Brazil tariffs will be set.

There was a Trump and Lula meeting yesterday, and the preliminary feedback is positive, but it still doesn't give an indication. I think that the way we're thinking about this is we have flexibility.

At the 10% level, it makes a lot of sense for us, and we'll continue to do that. If it goes to a different rate, we'll have to reconsider what we're doing for the balance of the year after July.

Daniel Harriman

All right. Thanks again, guys.

I'll get back in queue.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. Michael, your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Niccolo Piccini

Yeah. Hi, guys.

This is Niccolo Piccini on for Mike Roxland. Thanks for taking the questions.

Just first off, on Europe, I think you've mentioned in the past that's business has been more of a bet on the future. I was just wondering how you see the path to improving earnings there and your thoughts on the business, especially as your peers in the area are either contracting or reorganizing given the weaker supply-demand dynamics.

Then when is that slated to begin, the kind of lean transformation process?

John Sims

Thank you for your question. Can you repeat your second one?

I'm not sure. What was your second question?

Niccolo Piccini

Yeah. When does that fall and the lean transformation process that you're already doing in Latin America and are going to start doing in North America in 2Q?

Let me

John Sims

let me address the the first question about the Europe question. Yes, it's a bet on the future because we believe that over time the industry will continue to consolidate and become more hospitable to earnings, above cost of capital returns in Europe as it does consolidate as the market declines.

That, of course, isn't right now the case. It's a market that is very fractured and margins are are are low.

Our where we are focusing on is what we can control, and it's really specific to each of our two of our facilities. In in Saillat, we've been focusing on significantly reducing fixed costs and also improving our mix of products, shifting more out of commodity cutsize into more of the value-added roll business, which has higher margins, and also into other type of grades there.

We're executing that, and that is going actually better than planned in terms of the the mix improvement. At at our Nymölla mill, it's about reducing our wood costs.

We've when we purchased that mill, there was an agreement that the wood was going to be supplied from a joint venture, Södra, and we have moved away from that, taking control of our own sourcing of our own wood. We've seen wood costs come down, and we're expecting that to continue to move.

We're also increasing the yield and working on, consuming less wood. We've also exported in cheaper wood from local sources.

Put a lot of efforts into reducing our wood costs there and also improving our operational efficiencies at our Nymölla mill. We believe that these moves, with the increasing pricing and margins there, will improve the business going forward.

I think your question, second question was around the lean transformation. Where we started, this is a we expect the lean transformation to be a 3-year process, but we expect to get, immediate significant reports results in the areas that we start to implement that.

We started at the Mogi Guaçu mill here just recently. We've already got targeted improvements of in certain areas that is, around almost a 50% improvement in certain areas.

Where, as I shared with you in the presentation, we're rolling that out here going to be in North America, at the corporate areas. We'll be going back to Brazil, and then, next year, early next year, we'll be in Europe as well as at the Eastover mill.

I'm not sure if that answers your question, but on the lean transformation.

Niccolo Piccini

Yeah. No, that's helpful.

Thank you. I appreciate it.

I just had two additional follow-ons. One is on the mix issue in North America in the first quarter, given that that's related to the Eastover 4Q downtime and then the Riverdale conversion, should that change quarter-to-quarter, like Q1 to Q2?

I apologize if I missed that earlier. Then the second one is, if you can comment, how your relationship is with your large shareholder?

Don Devlin

Niccolo, I will take the first question relative to the mix. We do expect that to continue into Q2.

What we're doing is we're making sure we have the inventory to enable us to serve customers as the Riverdale supply agreement goes away and as I said, the Eastover speed up and sheeter installation in Q4. We're preparing to get through that big outage, which is 45 days at Eastover.

We'll build more inventory in Q2. It'll look similar.

John Sims

Then, I think your second questions around our largest shareholder, really happy to take that. Actually, in the first quarter, I did meet with them.

I'll share with you that they expressed to us they continue to support our strategy and have confidence in the management change. They were very supportive of my CEO letter.

They thought we were spot on in terms of what we're focusing on and the long-term value creation targets of greater than $300 million of free cash flow and the 15% return on invested capital. I would characterize our relationship with Atlas as very positive, and they continue to be very supportive of our strategy.

In fact, we continue to meet on almost a quarterly basis, expect to meet this quarter, where we continue to get their feedback, guidance, on the company, and we do appreciate their feedback.

Niccolo Piccini

Got it. Thank you very much.

I'll turn it over.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press *1 again.

Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. George, your line is open.

Please go ahead.

George Staphos

Hey. Thanks very much.

Hi, guys. A few follow-ons.

Eastover, are you still on track for $50 million? Should we expect that in 2027?

How is that going in terms of the value generation from that?

John Sims

Yeah. George, thanks for asking the question on Eastover.

Everything is on track, as we've just said. Everything is moving on schedule within the budget that we planned for the capital spending, and we're expecting installation in the fourth quarter.

As we said, the sheeter is actually going to be landing here shortly, and we'll start to install that and start to ramp up and the training of the crew and getting that ready to operate by the time the Eastover is ramped up. We do have a ramp-up schedule, the $50 million we still are 100% behind that number.

You won't see the full 50 in the first year because there will be a ramp-up period, but you'll see a significant portion of that in 2027.

Don Devlin

George, as a—

George Staphos

$30 million, $40 million, would that be significant as you see it, John? Sorry about that, Don.

John Sims

Yes. That's probably

George Staphos

that's right. Yep.

Don Devlin

Just to add to that, George, the reminder of the one-times go away. You have the ramp-up of the benefits, and then the one-time costs go away.

Eastover improvement next year is significant.

George Staphos

Okay. So—

Don Devlin

The one-times that we referred to in—

George Staphos

Yes. The 85, which is now 65, if I'm

Don Devlin

Yes.

George Staphos

correctly reframing. Great.

Reminding. Perfect.

Second question, with lean programs, right, my time covering the sector, usually you put in lean programs when things are relatively smooth, right? It's continuous improvement.

At Sylvamo right now, I know you're working on this, but you've got a lot of individual fires you're trying to put out. You've got the digester and power issues in South America.

You've got debarking issues. You're trying to bring up Eastover.

Why are you putting in a lean program now? Wouldn't it be better to wait when everything is established and then you can do continuous improvement on a baseline?

John Sims

George, I think the way that we think about it is that, first of all, we're going to have reliability issues. We want to minimize that as much as we can.

We believe that right now where we are with our operations and our facilities, we certainly can fully implement the lean management system going forward. We have a very engaged, highly engaged crew and team.

We believe there's a lot more opportunity to really tap into the talent of those teams, and that's what lean does because it's an employee-driven continuous improvement. When I talk about being a legendary in pursuing world-class excellence, we need every employee to be able to help us do that, and that's why we're implementing.

It's the best mechanism, we think, from a cultural perspective to really tap into the talents, and we do have a very talented team. I think that's one of our strengths.

Don Devlin

John. No doubt about that.

John Sims

We we would think it's a miss, George, to

George Staphos

Yeah. We we think it's a

John Sims

would be a miss for us not to tap into it now, the way and, generally, we believe that, we're we're not in a crisis mode, right? It's We have had issues that hit us really hard in the first quarter, but it's not a systemic issue that we would want to wait to implement our lean journey.

George Staphos

Okay. Appreciate that.

What incremental benefit should we get out of lean? You've had other cost reduction programs.

What do you get next year incremental from lean to the bottom line at Sylvamo, and what do you think you get on an ongoing basis?

John Sims

We think that we could achieve probably double the improvement rate that we have been achieving, but that's when we fully implement it. We're looking at 3 to 5 years, so as we ramp it up.

We think we can double the improvement rate, which, George, we need to do. What we've been faced with is not just us, but across the industry, and it's across the industrial sectors is increased rates of inflation and costs that's making the previous rates of improvements is not at the levels that it needs to be to sustain margins.

Yeah.

George Staphos

John, I appreciate that. We applaud that you're taking care of the house no matter the environment.

Was just trying to get a sense of what's behind the program, what benefit. I know you said you're going to get 2x the improvement, but what does that mean in terms of dollars?

Then kind of my last question on this round, I appreciate you taking all these questions, does it get to a point, and when Europe just becomes I don't know how to say it, but too much of a drag relative to the performance you're seeing elsewhere in your operations and you need to think even more significantly about its place in the portfolio? How much benefit from lean dollar-wise, and when does Europe become too big of a drag?

Thank you, guys. Good luck in the quarter.

John Sims

George, from a dollar-wise, your question on the lean, we really haven't really talked about and publicly disclosed what our improvement levels are from a year-over-year and what our targets are. I'm hesitant to do that going forward.

In terms of Europe, we always, and we have to, we continuously evaluate our whole portfolio. It's part of our capital allocation strategy and philosophy.

I think I talked about the last call, and also we're looking at all options. We have to.

We're looking at can we operate differently? How fast can we accelerate the improvements?

Are there things that we can do differently? I think the question you raise is something we've got to continue to do, and that's look at the portfolio and does it make sense?

Is it the right to be in Europe? Because ultimately, we want to drive value for our shareowners.

I can tell you right now, as we sit today, we believe that we have the right strategy that we're pursuing in Europe, and we think we've got the right leadership team. We're committed to our customers there, which we have very strong customer relationships with.

Our strategy right now is to continue to improve the performance of that business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets. Matthew, your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Matthew McKellar

Hi. Thanks.

Just one follow-up, please. With how tariffs have evolved, and assuming I guess they don't change in magnitude from here, whatever happens after Section 122 looks something like the 10% level, would you expect to continue to supply some amounts of Latin American paper into North American markets even after the Eastover expansion ramps up?

Maybe just relatedly, what's your sense about imports into the U.S. might be evolving more broadly just at an industry level with tariffs resetting lower?

Thank you.

Don Devlin

Matthew, I'll take the first part of your question relative to the Brazil imports. If the tariffs are in the right range for us, and 10% it works, we will continue to import from Brazil into North America.

It's part of the supply plan even after the Eastover speed up. It'll be part of the plan.

It makes more sense for us if you think about low margins of Brazil exporting into Middle East and Africa versus bringing it to North America. We have a pretty wide range on what makes sense from a tariff standpoint.

We'll continue to import.

John Sims

Matt, I think you asked what is the import situation in North America, what's the trend? Was that your second question?

Matthew McKellar

That's right. Just at an industry level, and post the IEEPA tariffs coming off.

Thanks.

John Sims

Okay. We did see imports increase in the beginning part of the year.

They got up to around 16% of demand, but we've seen a steady decrease of imports coming into North America, and it's roughly dropped down to the lower end of what's been typical, the lower end of the range, around 10% of total demand. Some of that is driven because of the tariffs.

Some of it is impacted by that Iran war, it's increasing freight costs, but also there was a mill that exported to the U.S. from that area that's not operating because of the result of the war.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Even over the past month or so, there doesn't seem to be any kind of inflection in import activity that you're aware of despite, I guess, those tariffs being lower, and you'd kind of attribute that to the war in Iran and maybe transportation costs downstream of that?

John Sims

That's right. We've actually seen imports continue to decrease, and we expect that to happen.

There's a mill also in Finland that was exporting not a lot of volume, I think 30,000 or so tons annually to the U.S., and that mill has been indefinitely idled as of November last year. There's some little bit things like that that also have decreased the imports.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Thanks very much.

I'll turn it back.

Operator

We have reached the end of our Q&A session. Thank you.

I'll now turn the call back over to Hans Bjorkman for closing comments.

Hans Bjorkman

All right. I'll let John do a quick wrap-up here, and then we'll let you get on to the rest of your day.

John Sims

Yeah. Thanks, Hans, and again, thank you for joining the call.

As I said, 2025 2025 and 2026 will be low points in our free cash flow generation as 2026 is a transition year for us. Also be a year of two halves.

In the first half, we'll be impacted by the transition costs plus input costs, while the second half should see improved pricing and margins and mix improvements across all our regions. This will be a year where we're executing our most significant investments in our Eastover mill that will drive a lot of value in the years to come.

We have launched our lean transformation and focusing on exceeding our customers' expectations and driving improvement across our operations. We are focused on long-term value creation and will generate strong and sustainable results by executing our flagship growth strategy and our disciplined capital allocations.

As I said, as industry conditions turn, our capital spending normalizes, and the benefits from our investments begin to materialize, we believe we have the potential to generate greater than $300 million of free cash flow and greater than 15% return on invested capital. Again, thank you for joining, and hope everybody has a good day.

Bye.

Don Devlin

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for participating in Sylvamo's first quarter 2026 earnings call. You may now disconnect.