Supermarket Income REIT Plc

Supermarket Income REIT Plc

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Mar 03Next Earn

Q4 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptSeptember 17, 2026

Rob Abraham

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join us.

I've also got Mike Perkins, our CFO, with me. Really, what we've been talking to in this set of results is establishing SUPR as a platform for growth over the last year and beginning to deliver on that strategy to grow the business.

That is with a view to ultimately growing earnings and supporting our future dividend growth. That's taken us now to £2.2 billion of gross value of the assets.

We have scaled our joint venture in that time, so that £2.2 billion includes the 50% share of the joint venture we have. That number is up from £1.6 billion around a year ago.

As we've grown the portfolio, that has also been through earnings-enhancing transactions, and that gives us now the capacity to increase the dividend for the coming year by 2%. That means our dividend yield today at the current share price is around 7.5%, and that is, of course, backed by very high-quality income from the leading supermarket operators.

A very healthy dividend and also the benefit now that shareholders are seeing of that scale is our very efficient platform. The cost ratio at 9.2%, and with some of the latest growth we've been delivering, we think that 9.2% will—well, we know it will continue to trend lower.

This is all about delivering value for shareholders, and as we grow, shareholders will see the benefit of that. Just a quick overview of how the portfolio looks today.

140 supermarkets, 90% or so is in the UK still. By number, about 46 of the assets are in France, but they are smaller lot sizes, smaller value.

11-year average lease length, 83% of our income is inflation-linked, we get contractual rental uplifts along with inflation. The portfolio is 100% occupied and around 75% of our income is investment-grade, very high-quality, defensive income coming through on those attractive lease terms.

It's been a highly active year of strategic progress for us. I mentioned that we scaled the joint venture with Blue Owl, that's now at £850 million, and that was through a series of transactions in different phases.

The scaling of the JV has released some capital, and that's enabled us to make £676 million of earnings-accretive acquisitions since July last year. We've also been busy, or Mike and the team have been busy, undertaking £1 billion of debt financings over the year, and that includes our debut public bond that was very well-backed.

Then after the year-end, we undertook some more proactive lease renewals, and that's proving sustainable rents, and we expect to be accretive to total return. Then finally, we were delighted to raise £100 million back in July.

The proceeds of that have now been fully deployed. Now this slide shows—it was a slide we had back in our interim results in March—our ambitions to double the size of the portfolio.

At the top of the page is an illustration of how that portfolio might evolve as we grow. You can see from £2 billion to £4 billion, there's a 10% allocation to grocery-anchored retail parks, which we already own a number of those, also 15% to European foodstores—we're at 10% today, we see the range being broadly 10% to 20% in Europe—and then also grocery distribution, we bought our first logistics asset in our most recent phase of deployment, and we see that being an avenue for potential growth in the future.

Whilst we deliver that growth, we can maintain the attractive investment fundamentals of the current portfolio. We expect to be around 90% grocery income, we expect to be around a 12-year average lease length, 80% or so being inflation-linked, and 70% or so being investment-grade.

Again, very high-quality contractual long-dated income. I mentioned we raised £100 million in July.

That was our first equity raise since 2022. We've now fully deployed the proceeds of that in the space of just two months.

Using those proceeds and the associated debt financing, we've acquired nine high-quality grocery properties for a total value of £222 million. 82% of that income is investment-grade, 87% is inflation-linked, and at a 6.6% net initial yield, that transaction is accretive to earnings and therefore also supports future dividend growth.

Then lastly on this page, that scale also further reduces the already very efficient cost ratio that we have. To take you through a couple of examples of what we've bought in that phase of deployment: so a Tesco store in Edinburgh on the left-hand side there, large-format top-performing omnichannel store, very much core product for us.

Five years remaining on the lease, and at £33 a square foot, there's a good opportunity for us to renew that lease in years to come and unlock some value for shareholders that way. In the middle, that first mission-critical logistics warehouse that we've acquired, brand new build Sainsbury's down in Avonmouth near Bristol, and with that brand new build, the tenant has also made a significant amount of capital investment in the fit-out of that property.

Then lastly on the right, an M&S anchored retail park in Nottinghamshire. This is an interesting opportunity because we've got an upcoming open-market rent review, and in that, we see some strong evidence to support pushing up the rents at that next review, particularly based on some of the evidence shown from the Homebase stores that went vacant and have been converted to foodstores.

I'll talk some more to that later. We've been clear then on the ambition to grow the portfolio, and we've got a variety of capital sources to deliver that.

I've just talked to equity raising and how we've just successfully done that, but also through joint ventures, and their benefit there is additional management fee income. We've also got really strong liquidity in the debt markets, and then also capital recycling.

That can be outright store sales as well as potentially establishing some new joint venture vehicles. With that, I will let Mike talk through the numbers.

Mike Perkins

Brilliant. Thank you, Rob.

Good afternoon, everyone. It has been an extremely busy year full of activity, and the point for us is that activity has been designed to strengthen the business and position us for future growth.

If I take you through some of the highlights and then we'll go through them in more detail later on the slides, but at a headline level, £122 million net rental income is up 6%. We've seen the EPRA cost ratio down to 9.2%, which is down 380 basis points since the prior year.

EPRA earnings was 5.7 pence, down 4%. Portfolio value of £2.2 billion, we said that's up 37% since June 2025.

87.5p NAV per share, which is marginally higher than June 2025 at 87.1 pence, but total accounting return strong at 7.5%, and that is income-driven. Turning through the slides in slightly more detail, this chart on the left there just shows how active we've been.

The first bar is the passing rent immediately prior to our completion of the joint venture back in May last year, passing rent of £170 million. You can see the income that we've lost, I guess, through the sale of assets into the JV reduced passing rent by £21 million, but in those two boxes next to it, we've deployed £454 million of capital in this financial year, which has added about £31.8 million of new rent, and that acquisition deployment was at a 6.5% net initial yield.

Then we've continued to see like-for-like growth in the portfolio too, adding a further £2.1 million to passing rents. Then looking forwards, the impact of the equity raise post year-end, you can see another £14.8 million of passing rent.

Our pro forma today is £144.3 million. Those boxes on the right are still hugely important.

We've got a really highly secure and efficient income profile. Another period again of 100% occupancy and rent collection, 75% of our income is underpinned by investment-grade covenants, and we have a sector-leading 99.5% gross to net income ratio, really, really efficient structure.

What we've shown here is the value that we've been able to create through the capital recycling. We have transferred £635 million of assets into the JV, and that chart on the left there, you can see we disposed of those at an average disposal yield of 6.2%.

With the net proceeds we've received, we've recycled that into higher-yielding assets, deployed at 6.8%, but the kicker you get with the management fee on top of that creates a spread to our initial of about 120 basis points. Then what we've shown on the right there is how this translates into earnings, and this is the annualised impact on net income.

You can see the assets that we've been acquiring have more than offset the income we've lost, and then that additional management fee should give you about 0.3p of additional earnings on an annualised basis, which is broadly about 5% on dividend cover. That should drive future earnings growth, and for turning it into the JV, we still retain that 50% exposure.

We've been recycling proceeds into higher-yielding assets and that recurring management fee, all driving future earnings growth. Part of the rationale for internalisation was to create a really efficient structure that was more aligned, and we've shown on the left here the progress we've made since internalisation.

That sort of 13.6% was the last reported cost ratio prior to internalisation. You've seen that come down to 9.2% today, and that is broadly around £4 million of annualised cost savings.

We are very much on target to deliver our sub-9% cost ratio from the next financial year. We have been investing in the teams.

We've made some senior hires this year, but certainly future growth should be very, very efficient for us and not having to have that low incremental cost. You'd expect that 9% come down as we scale.

Then just going through our earnings for the year, 4% reduction in EPS as we were redeploying the capital that we received following the JV and as we strengthened the balance sheet. On the left there, you can see the cash drag on the assets that we transferred into the JV reduced EPS by three 0.3 pence.

The increase in weighted average cost of debt is largely due to our debut public bond, which reduced earnings by 0.4 pence. Whilst that had an initial impact on EPS, it has materially strengthened the balance sheet.

We now have longer maturity profiles, we've got more diversified funding sources, and increased the proportion of our debt that's fixed rate. That was done at 5.125%, which was a relatively attractive pricing.

What we've shown in those three bars on the right, the benefit of the management fee, the like-for-like net rent coming through, you can see have added 0.1 pence respectively, and then that cost savings driving earnings growth as well, which added another 0.2 pence. Whilst EPS was marginally lower for the year, we have positioned the business to operate in that higher interest rate environment and expect to certainly see earnings growth coming through from next financial year.

Then turning to the balance sheet, we continue to deliver an income-led total return. The bar chart on the left there just shows the bridge in our EPRA NTA per share over the year.

As of June 2025, our EPRA NTA was 87.1 pence. We've covered EPRA earnings, which were 5.7 pence.

We paid dividend of 6.2 pence in the year, and revaluation, realised, unrealised gains. Our valuations were up on a like-for-like basis by about 2.5%, and that translates then into about 2.8 pence of NAV growth, which has been partially offset by acquisition-related costs as we have been acquisitive in this year.

NTA marginally up by 0.4% to 87.5 pence today, but a 7.5% total accounting return. What we want to draw out on the right-hand side here is this is really what differentiates SUPR is the quality of that return.

You can see SUPR's total return is broadly 90% from income, which is backed by investment-grade covenants, and that is versus a sector average of around 57%. What that means for us is that our returns aren't reliant on valuation movements, they are certainly very resilient, and definitely for us a more reliable source of long-term returns.

As Rob mentioned at the start, we've been very busy in the debt capital markets, done approximately £1 billion of refinancings in the year, and what we've shown on the left there was our maturity profiles of June 2025, where maturities were far more concentrated and our average maturity was 2.8 years. The activity we've done since then, which includes our debut bond, includes the refinancing of the RCFs that we'd undertook just after the year-end, we've improved that maturity profile to 3.6 years despite the passage of one year's time.

Importantly, no refinancings until June 2028. The refinancings that we did in the RCFs, we saw some healthy margin improvement.

Our average cost of debt today is around 4.4%. 98% of that is fixed or hedged until June 2028.

We can withstand any near-term volatility in interest rates. We are well-placed to deliver that kind of earnings growth and that minimum 2% dividend target.

What is absolutely key for us is maintaining that BBB+ credit rating. We've shown on the left there, we will manage LTV through the cycle.

Post-deployment of the equity raise, we're at 45% leverage, but we will still maintain a significant amount of headroom in our banking covenants. The viability assessment would show you'd need to see a fall in valuations of about 27% before you sort of be in breach of a covenant.

We'll monitor that, but equally, we give equal prominence to net debt to EBITDA, which is something our rating agencies will look at. Our 7.8 times net debt to EBITDA is significantly below the rating sensitivity, and what you would expect to see as you get the full year's benefit of income from the assets we've just acquired, we would be operating at the lower end of that 7 to 8 times target.

Look, we're well-placed to deliver our strategy. We have successfully deployed capital, completing £676 million of earnings-enhancing acquisitions.

We've built a scalable platform with one of the lowest cost ratios in the sector and delivered a 7.5% total accounting return for this year, which is underpinned by highly secure, investment-grade income. I'll hand you back to Rob to go through the market and investment update.

Rob Abraham

Thank you, Mike. Look, omnichannel grocers continue to dominate the grocery market, and we have Tesco as our largest tenant on the left-hand side, and we are Tesco's largest landlord.

Their total revenue is £44 billion a year. Their market share in the UK is 28%, and that increases to 37% in the online channel.

At the strapline at the bottom there, omnichannel grocers are best placed to win through scale. Not only that, it's the scale of their large-format store estates that cannot be replicated that are a very high barrier for other operators to compete with.

What we're seeing is omnichannel stores capturing the majority of sales growth. On the left-hand side, online is growing at double digits.

This is from Tesco's full-year results, the last two years. You can see that online growth very strong, and that gets fulfilled through the store networks, and it's the stores that we own that provide that.

Then the large-format stores that you combine online with, in-store sales in large-format stores growing around 4% a year. In that same time, convenience has been broadly flat.

Omnichannel stores is the main driver of the growth. That means it's profitable growth for the operators because they're not having to invest in creating new space to capture that like-for-like growth.

Now the reason why consumers prefer these large-format stores is because they provide better value and greater choice. On the left-hand side, Tesco Express, if you do your weekly shop there compared to in a large-format store, the annual saving's about £800.

On the right-hand side, items in a large-format store are often 10% to 20% cheaper. You get a much larger product range at 20,000 to 30,000 products, and not only that, the chance of the product you want being in stock is much higher at 91% plus compared to 82% in convenience.

What we're therefore seeing is at our portfolio level, and so this is an example, this chart is the sales data from one of our stores in our portfolio. We're seeing that turnover grow over the last three years by 18%, and the rents are up only 12% in the same period.

That means the rent relative to the store turnover, that ratio has improved from 4.1% to 3.9%, and that means that as we get those contractual uplifts that you can see in the rent on the chart there, as we get those uplifts, it's absolutely affordable for the tenants. Now the omnichannel stores we own are also great drivers of footfall.

This is one of the retail parks we own in Bristol. We are extending and building a new Lidl on the retail warehousing terrace.

It's got a 20-year lease, it's got inflation-linked rent reviews, and the yield on cost is very attractive at 8%. This is just one of the ways we're able to actively manage the sites and drive value.

If we zoom in then on that retail warehousing line-up, what you can see is that we had Argos, which was paying rent but wasn't trading from the site because it had relocated into the nearby Sainsbury's, and therefore that Argos at the end of the lease would have gone vacant. Then also concessionary lettings to One Beyond and Poundstretcher.

We combined those two units in the middle to create a new B&M on a 10-year lease. We also renewed the Boots lease for five years.

Combined that with the Lidl, we've now got 100% occupancy. We've added six years to the average lease length.

We're now full of national retailers. The rental income is up £400,000 a year, and we've also expecting a 10% valuation increase.

Very attractive returns, and this is just one of the ways that we can, where we have greater site control, that we can extract value. We also renewed two leases in July.

Now these stores, large-format top-performing omnichannel stores, reset the term to 15 years in each case, extensions of nine years and eight years respectively. In one case, the rent came down 15%, but the other store renewed at passing rent, the average reduction across the two was 7%.

Normally you might get, in other areas of commercial property, you'd get a rent-free period, for a 15-year term, that could even be 18 months plus of rent-free. There is no rent-free periods here.

There are no landlord capital contributions. Through these lease renewals, we expect the valuation of the properties to go up, which enhances our total return.

Then aside from where we're renewing leases, we're also seeing, and I mentioned this earlier, the evidence where Homebase stores have been converted into new foodstores, M&S particularly taking some of those, Sainsbury's also took 12 of those. New 20-year index-linked leases being signed at £24 and £28 a square foot.

That is starting to feed into open-market rent reviews. There's a Waitrose example in Surrey where that store has seen a 16% uplift at open-market review as a result of that evidence being seen elsewhere.

In that context, our current rents are very much affordable: £23 a square foot, average rent to turnover of 4%, very affordable. The investment markets, just some interesting data points that are being seen.

We didn't buy these, they were bought by what you might call core capital. Sainsbury's in Hertfordshire with open-market reviews, a 5% net initial yield.

That has a 15-year lease, and at 5%, it means the purchaser is expecting open-market growth under the open-market rent reviews. Also a Lidl sale-and-leaseback priced at a 4.8% net initial yield, a very strong yield relative to where you might see the cost of money today.

Then lastly, a Morrisons in Plymouth, 22 years on that lease, 6.1% on the yield. You get a bit of a discount, a bit of additional yield to reflect the fact that the tenant is sub-investment grade.

The point for us is we looked at those opportunities, but we've seen better value elsewhere in the investment market. We've executed £676 million of earnings-accretive acquisitions across a range of strategies, you can see on the page.

I mentioned earlier, as we grow, we can maintain the attractive fundamentals. At a 6.5% net initial yield, it's accretive; 13-year average lease length; 94% of the income is inflation-linked; and 74% is investment-grade.

As I say, very much supporting those attractive portfolio fundamentals. In summary, we're well-positioned to continue to grow from here.

It's been a highly active year of significant strategic progress for us. We've been delivering on the business plan and the strategy that we set out.

We're also targeting a strong total return that is backed by high-quality income, of course: Sainsbury's, Tesco, investment-grade type operators on long leases with inflation linkage. Very much an income-based return profile, which is very defensive.

We've also got these very interesting multiple avenues to grow and drive shareholder returns across those different strategies. Thank you for listening to the presentation.

With that, we will turn to the questions. There's one here which Mike, I think you talked to, but worth just being clear on: percentage dividend cover for this year and where you expect it to be going forwards?

Mike Perkins

Yeah. Dividend cover for this year was 93% for the reasons we set out.

There was some cash drag as we were redeploying the capital and the uptick in debt costs as we executed our bond and our financing strategy. In terms of where we are today, they were kind of one-off impacts, we would—and as we messaged in our equity raises—that we'd expect to be fully covered from the first full financial year after the equity raise.

Analyst consensus will have us very close to dividend cover for FY 2027 and fully covered thereafter. For us, the reason why we were talking to that sort of minimum uplift in our dividend guidance, the key for us is that the dividend is sustainable.

So 2% for us today is a sustainable dividend that we know we can cover with earnings, and then the kind of the next job, because there's a question here around our dividend policy, is that sort of guidance of 2% is the minimum target now. Our job is to try and grow it by more than what we're getting at the top line in terms of inflation and passing that through.

A lot of the work we've done this year is designed to kind of get that bouncing point where our dividend is covered and which we've done, we've shown that, and we'd expect cover to come through in the next, yeah, next financial year.

Rob Abraham

Thank you, Mike. I will take the next one, just about any evidence that top-tier operators are looking to accelerate their efforts to own more of their own stores?

We continue to see Tesco buying individual stores in. They don't buy everything, but it does just give good evidence of exactly how strategically important these stores are to the operators.

Tesco bought about seven stores in the last year, continues to do that. Sainsbury's don't buy individual lots in the secondary market, but they did buy a joint venture back from us a few years ago.

Very much proving the strategic importance of those. There was a question about our ambition to double in size and what timeframe this might be on.

Look, we deliberately haven't given a timeframe because the ambition to double in size is an ambition, but it's not growth for the sake of it. It needs to be accretive, the numbers need to work, and therefore we will only grow if it makes sense to do so.

That said, to double in size, we need to grow by £2 billion of assets. In the last year, we've acquired £676 million, it gives you a sense that in the right environment, it may take as little as two to three years, but it's certainly we'll need to stack up to do that for us to make that decision.

Mike, maybe to you to take the second point of, do you expect any material increase in leverage? Then there's another related question just around what would need to happen for us to kind of be under stress on the debt covenants?

Mike Perkins

Certainly. As we showed, leverage today is 45%, and I think that is probably more of an upper limit for us.

It might be that if we wanted to execute a transaction, that we might drift a little bit higher, but always looking to bring it back down to kind of 45% and below. As I said, look, we do look at leverage in terms of maintaining that kind of covenant headroom.

If you look at the valuation reduction in order to breach a covenant, it's about 27%, 28%. Post the mini-budget, SUPR's property values fell by 14%, and since then, we've seen our valuations broadly flat.

I would probably add to that that we have sold into the JV £635 million of assets, they've all been at a premium to the prevailing book value, we're very confident in where our valuations are. Then obviously we look to that kind of net debt to EBITDA as well as another key rating for us, and at low 7s again, operating with significant headroom to our credit rating covenants.

We feel comfortable where we are today, but yeah, I don't think you'd expect us to take leverage materially higher where it is today.

Rob Abraham

Thank you, Mike. I will take the next one just about European foodstores: which tenants and countries other than Carrefour, and what's our thoughts on concentrations, Carrefour in the portfolio?

Look, We did 12 months of work before we went into France. We need to make sure we really know our stuff before going into a new market.

There's lots of considerations around structuring and tax aspects. We're working on that at the moment.

The geographies that maybe seem more interesting or more likely at the moment would be Spain, Portugal, Ireland. The maybes would be Italy or Germany.

It really depends as well on the pipeline. A way to go into a new geography may be to do it with an existing tenant, we would be open-minded to say Carrefour in Spain, perhaps.

It's early days on that front. We're certainly not rushing into it.

You also saw our most recent raise and deployment was all in the UK, the pipeline remains very strong in the UK as well. There's a question about the equity raise and why retail investors weren't given longer to participate.

Look, there's a point here around when we raise capital in the current environment, and the retail investors were given the same amount of time as the institutional investors, but it is a reasonably short window. We were very pleased we got about £10 million of backing, around 10% of the raise came from retail money.

That came through RetailBook, which works with all of the major platforms, the likes of Hargreaves Lansdown, AJ Bell, etc. What I would say is you just need to make sure you have the alerts on.

In the current environment, we used to raise and keep the window open for two weeks at a time, but with so much macro volatility, you just don't know what's going to happen day to day, we just had to keep it reasonably short, which is the way the market has gone. That isn't to say it will always remain that way going forward, but yeah, I would ask that you make sure you've got all of the alerts set up both when we issue RNSs or with the retail platforms to give you the best chance of being able to participate.

Mike, there's Capex?

Mike Perkins

Yeah. There's a question around how much capex we're investing in the Lidl development.

Now it'll be low single-digit millions. It's more of a forward funding arrangement, we haven't actually spent any money yet.

We've got a commitment to buy it. We expect that to go in sort of early next year, it's sort of low single-digit millions.

The point of the Lidl, I think, for us is that it's managing our estate effectively, they're never going to be massive needle-movers in terms of capital we need to deploy or impact on the wider portfolio, but it's just being efficient and driving NOI where we can. Sort of low single-digit millions.

Rob Abraham

Thank you, Mike. Do you see the installation of car park solar, similar to the 50% rule in France, as a potential driver of cash generation not currently utilised in the UK market?

Yes, certainly we know the operators are looking at carport solar, bearing in mind of our supermarket site, the car park is probably 75% of the whole site, and it should be easier to put solar above car parking spaces maybe than on the roof of the store itself. Yes, I think we will see that over time, particularly as solar panel technology has gotten better.

There may well be an opportunity for us to fund some of that for the tenants. It depends really, but yeah, it's all a positive in that respect.

There was a question around, has the JSE listing been positive for the company? Certainly last year, we saw the JSE register get to about 4% of our share register, which means we had 4% of share buying at a time when the UK-listed real estate market was I think fair to say quite tough.

Having a market that moves in different directions or in different ways to our core UK market is quite helpful to have that ability to transfer shares into the JSE. Mike, do you want to take the one on indexed rent reviews?

Mike Perkins

Yeah. Certainly.

A question around kind of the ability for us to capture inflation if it exceeds materially the Bank of England's target. Look, the typical lease structure for us is there'll be a cap and a collar.

Our average cap is 4%. Yes, look, in periods where inflation runs ahead of that 4%, we don't capture all of it, but what that would mean and what we've seen in the past is the store-level performance will improve.

Whilst you don't get all of the inflation capture, it makes our rents more affordable at the sort of rent relative to turnover metric. We'd expect to kind of, as we said, it's not a bad thing for us.

The 1 and 4 is typical in these lease structures. If there was a spike in inflation, what we've seen in previous cycles is it is momentarily an increase, but it just makes our rents more affordable, therefore pushes rents on for us.

Hope that's answered the question.

Rob Abraham

Thank you, Mike. That is all of the questions.

Thank you all for taking the time, and thank you all for the support. We're very much active on our plan to grow, but as we say, it needs to be accretive to shareholders, it needs to be driving value, but the pipeline's interesting and we think there are opportunities there that will deliver value for our shareholders, and we've got various routes for funding that pipeline.

I guess watch this space, really.

Operator

Perfect. Thank you, guys.

Can we please ask investors not to close the session, as you'll now be automatically redirected to provide your feedback. On behalf of the management team of Supermarket Income REIT plc, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and goodbye.