Good morning and welcome to Aspen Pharmacare's 2026 annual financial presentation. Thank you all for joining us this morning.
Just to quickly run you through the agenda: this morning Stephen Saad is going to give us an introduction and overview; he will then hand over to Sean Capazorio, our Chief Financial Officer, who will run through the financial performance for the year; and Stephen will then return to give us an overview of the operational updates, strategic updates, and financial guidance for the next financial year. We'll conclude with a Q&A session, please feel free to send questions through via the webcast.
We'll get to as many as we can, we'll follow up with you over the next couple of days. With that, I'm going to welcome up Stephen Saad, our Chief Executive Officer, to give us an introduction.
Thank you, Stephen.
Stephen Saad
Thank you very much. Thank you Roy, thank you for that.
Good morning everyone, and sorry my voice is a little croaky. I think it's because it's a cold, but it might also be because of some pretty solid support on Saturday for the rugby, but we'll see how far we get through this.
We've got a presentation for you, but en route here I was just reflecting if I could pick five things and five hallmarks of really great businesses, what would I choose, either to run or to own? I came up with five points, and I'm not sure these aren't in books, but these were my view: one, a dependable business; two, a resilient business; three, a business with a bit of sizzle; four, a business that creates value; and five, a business that's enduring.
I try to see where Aspen positioned against those five key areas for me. In terms of a dependable foundation, something that you can ground your business on, you can give you security over your earnings, your cash flows, our Commercial Pharma business in emerging markets has demonstrated that publicly for more than two decades.
If there was any confusion about how well positioned that business is both for now and in the future, I ask you to look at how many innovator multinationals, the biggest in the world, say, "Aspen, in your emerging markets, in some of your emerging markets, we trusting you with our IP because we think you can do a better job in those territories than we could do by ourselves." That is what I call a dependable foundation, and it's something that it never varies too much.
It doesn't shoot the lights out and grow 100%, and it doesn't go to zero. Then a resilient business.
A resilient business is particularly important in the type of business, for example, that Aspen has, in that we have a global business, every shock hits us. If you think about where we started with a zero base in Durban and to move into a very high-technology business like pharmaceuticals, really we'd sort of one of a kind.
The reality is we do difficult things, really difficult things. In order to be successful, we have to challenge so many boundaries.
We certainly take knocks, taken many knocks, more knocks than we would like to have. I will tell you this much: although you battered and bruised at all of this, we simply never go away.
We try and learn a lesson from each knock, and we try and learn that lesson just once, and then we have to modify strategies from those learnings. I believe that if you've been watching our results over the last period, you'll see a demonstration in these results and you'll see the future as well, which shows how resilient this business and how well we learned and how we take those learnings to drive future growth.
Talking of future growth, I come to sizzle. What is sizzle?
That's something that wakes you up and gets you excited and positive. It's about your future growth.
It's what you add onto your foundation in time as it matures. We've invested for a long time in two areas, and we starting to see green shoots now and we believe we'll build on these in the years to come.
Those two areas are steriles, our sterile manufacturing business, and our GLP-1s weight loss. We took a bet on the weight loss category long before it was popular or the category to be in.
In terms of the GLP-1s, it is an exciting area for business, and you'll see it during the presentation. The steriles is particularly pleasing to be talking positively about it.
It was just over a year ago that we lost a contract. At the time, I said to you we might have lost the milk, but we didn't lose the cow, and we're in a good neighborhood.
Of course, having all the tariffs noise at that stage was also particularly amplified in pharmaceuticals, it was a period of quite deep despair. You'll see it's come back, and we'll talk about it in numbers and the future of it, but we really comfortable and we excited about where we've invested in both of them.
Then creating value. This is often a very contentious area, and I sometimes do it on the back of a cigarette box, and people give me lots of formulas and all sorts of other things, and it's quite hard to work out what is and isn't there.
When we look at it, we've done many, many transactions over the years at Aspen. We've made divestments of big, big assets, and in all instances—and you can go through the history—we've sold those assets.
This is going to come to what we think about sum of parts, etc. We sold those assets for double digits.
For me, it's a very simple story: if you really unsure of Aspen's created value, I put this to you: we've never issued shares; I'm glad to say this is the first time I'm going to say this in 25 years, we don't have debt; and we going to deliver 9 billion, over 9 billion of earnings next year. For me, to me that is value creation.
The final point is an enduring business. An enduring business is one that's got to be able to last the distance.
To be able to last the distance, in my opinion, it has to be purposeful. You've got to contribute meaningfully to society.
I fully respect and we fully respect and appreciate and focus on all those very important financial and commercial metrics, without those achieving those is very hard to be purposeful. In equal measures, we focus on how we create access to medicines, access to patients.
I think our track record there is well known, be it in ARVs, COVID, and access to Africa. In this presentation, I think we on the cusp of increasing that contribution and being able to assist those that are vulnerable even more, and with a particular focus on Africa, and we'll talk about that too.
When I go through those five yardsticks and I look at where we are and where we going to, I'm really comfortable we've got a hallmark of a great business. Thank you for that, and from here let me click onto the presentation, onto where we are.
Let's start with a welcome. Thank you for being here.
Where's this? There we go, sorry, apologies.
Let's look at our performance and overview. As Roy said, I'm going to just give you a quick snapshot of what we set out to do, what we've achieved, and then I'll hand it over to Sean and I'll come back for effectively the performance, the strategy, and the guidance.
What were our six core objectives? I encourage all of you to look back over the last couple of years as to the objectives we set ourselves.
These are not new objectives, this is what we told you we hope to do last year. In terms of a dependable foundation, our Commercial Pharma momentum, it endures.
We had a 13% growth in constant exchange rate in EBITDA, and that built on double-digit growth in Financial '25 as well. For '27, we expect to sustain organic growth led by emerging markets.
We starting to realize our GLP-1 investments. I'll show you some charts later as to the type of growth we seeing in South Africa, how Mounjaro powers the entire South African private market, and we've started a process of now registering in Sub-Sahara.
We commencing our GLP-1 generic global growth rollout. We've got two two two products registered now in Canada, and emerging markets will follow, and Brazil we believe we relatively close and is under review.
Manufacturing growth engine: so this is what caused us a bit of a hiccup in the last period. What we guided you was that we lost a contract that cost us a billion, and to get back to break-even in steriles, we needed to make 1.7 billion of EBITDA, and we had to do that over two years: financial year '26 and '27.
That's what we targeted ourselves. Sean will show you now we achieved 1.2 billion of that in financial year '26.
For 2027, we will raise that guidance from 1.7 billion to 2.2 billion, and that's a function of growing volumes, growing revenue, and reduced costs. We'll give you a sense of where those revenues will get to and where the profitability, what drives it.
I'm very happy to say I think that this will be the primary driver of group growth. Of course, a rapid take on of GLP-1s could change everything, but right now if you look at where our budgets are, it's a primary driver of group growth.
We also told you last year we would look to un-value where we saw value beyond what we could achieve, we would look to the sum of parts, and we'd believe that the sum of parts of our business is not represented in our share price. We invested the APAC business for 28 billion rand, that was at an 11.5 times EBITDA.
People, I know I'm going to be asked, and have already been asked, would you continue? Yes, we will respond to any opportunities to unlock values for the sum of parts where it makes sense for Aspen.
Big focus from Sean and the financial team and the whole of the company on free cash flows, and a really commendable performance: 3.8 billion of free cash flow generated. We had net cash of 0.8 billion, 800 million in the bank.
I've got to say that slowly, I remember once somebody asked me, I think in the last presentation, "What would you do?" I said, "I'm just going to look at it for a while."
In fact, we started a share buyback program, which was at 0.5 billion at the end of the year, but has now stretched to 2 billion, or 3% of the company as of recently. The free cash flows will be driving even stronger cash flows.
Very simply, we'll be showing you that our EBITDA is going up, our finance costs go away, and we have very stable capital investments. We've seen significant earnings growth, that's been a priority for us, and we achieved 28% growth in continuing operations in NHEPS.
We expect substantial future growth in NHEPS, more than 50% going into financial year '27, with more than 9 billion of EBITDA, and obviously the interest savings will be whatever the finance costs were in this year, which was about 1.2 billion. Those were six commercial those were six key commercial objectives and they were core to us, and I believe we can tick the block on all of them.
You will see in our results in this period flat revenue and a very big growth in NHEPS. Really, it's the operating leverage that has driven these efficiencies, and it's also some of these efficiencies that will be annualized that leads to an increase and a raising of our guidance on the sterile finished dose form.
In this year, you'll see in our Commercial Pharma the double-digit EBITDA growth outpace sales growth. Manufacturing, we grow EBITDA despite a decline in revenue.
We've got a reshaped sterile business more than recovered a billion rand contract loss. When I talk about resilient businesses, these are the things I'm referring to.
Then we've put a lot of work into heparin, and we've got this fantastic new streamlined process which gives us cost reductions, lower inventory levels both in value and volume, and you'll see that when we talk about heparin and give you guidance later. The manufacturing has seen many sustainable benefits from the numerous restructuring processes.
For financial year '27, as I'd said during the opening slide, we've raised our guidance for steriles by half a billion. When I say guidance, it was in the last presentation we told you we were targeting 1.7 billion, so that's been raised.
The EBITDA will increase very strongly there because the costs are relatively fixed, you've got increased volumes, increased value off a lower cost base. Then there'll be further cost reductions as we disentangle from the divestment that we made in the APAC region.
With that, thank you, that's my introduction. With that, Sean, I'm going to hand over to you, and you'll see me a little bit later.
Thank you.
Sean Capazorio
Great. Thank you.
Thank you, Stephen. Very very good summary of a very exciting year that's passed, and you can see that we've delivered on all six commercial objectives, and that really marks an inflection point for us for sustained future growth, and you'll see that theme coming through in my presentation and back to Stephen's as we move through the discussions.
On to the numbers. On the first slide, you'll note where I've got a pyramid there.
Those of you that have been following Aspen for a very, very long time will remember this pyramid from my inaugural presentation back in June '22, and I'm very, very pleased to say that the pyramid has returned this year and we are absolutely focused on retaining this pyramid. What does a pyramid mean?
That means as you go down the pyramid, the growth gets bigger. This year, if I start at the top, in constant exchange rate, our revenue was flat, and I'll unpack that later, but in that flat revenue, we had growth in Commercial Pharma and a decline in the manufacturing.
If we go down to the EBITDA, we've grown our EBITDA at 14%. Moving down to NHEPS, a growth of 28%, and very pleasingly, as you saw from Stephen's slide, a 3.8 billion free cash flow, a significant growth in our free cash flow.
We're very happy with the shape of the pyramid, and as I say, we absolutely focused on its retention, and what's going to drive its retention is us continuing to realize these efficiencies in all of our value-enhancing and operational efficiency projects. What are the key takeaways from a commercial or financial perspective for the year?
Commercial Pharma this year has been our primary organic growth engine, you'll see that coming through all the numbers, with Mounjaro being a big underpin there, plus our organic growth in our emerging markets. On our manufacturing side, we've demonstrated operational improvement, and you'll see that coming through in the numbers that I take you through.
If you take the combination of those first two takeaways, that's given us operating leverage, which has driven the EBITDA and the NHEPS growth above revenue, as you've seen in the pyramid on the left. In this year, we've also had lower capex and working capital investment, and that's generated strong free cash flow of 3.8 billion.
That's given us the opportunity, together with the APAC divestment, to end the year with a very strong balance sheet in a net cash position of 0.8 billion after the share buybacks of 0.5 billion. As we said, I think as at two days ago, we announced the 3% share buyback at 2 billion rand of investment, we continue to buy back.
Moving on then to the group revenue. Overall, if you recall from our first slide, we ended with a flat position.
If I have to unpack that into the two components and I look at Commercial Pharma first and then manufacturing: Commercial Pharma, we grew at 5%. That 5% was, however, diluted by our reshape program in China, where we identified a lot of unprofitable products that we discontinued, you'll note that doesn't affect our EBITDA, but obviously affected our top line, so that impacted our growth.
If you take that out, our growth excluding China was 7% in constant exchange rate. Within our prescription division, the China discontinuations resulted in a -3% decline there.
If I move then into injectables, there we grew at 16%, and Mounjaro, obviously the momentum in Mounjaro in South Africa was a key growth driver there. Very pleasing, next year you'll see the rankings change, but injectables is now our biggest revenue generator, it's now outperformed the prescription division at 9.2 billion of turnover.
OTC had a strong year, unfortunately it was diluted by the impact of the Middle East, where we have quite a strong OTC presence, we grew at 3%, but unfortunately this strong performance was diluted by the Middle East conflict. On the manufacturing side, we had a 10% decline in revenue, and that was driven by the loss of the mRNA contract that Stephen spoke about earlier on.
Moving on then to our key segments in the business, and what I've got on this slide is on the left I've got the Commercial Pharma revenue and normalized EBITDA comparing '25 to '26, and on the right I've got the manufacturing with the same comparators. If we start with Commercial Pharma, revenue growth, which I've taken you through already, at 5% in constant exchange rate; a nice, steady, and strong growth of 13% in EBITDA, and that was underpinned by good organic growth in our business, very stable gross margins.
We've been very proud to have kept our gross margins stable over the last, phew, 5, 6, 7 years. Then obviously we also had the benefit of the reshape in our China business model, and that gave us the operating leverage to drive 13% and double-digit EBITDA growth.
Also pleasing to note that obviously resulted in an increased EBITDA margin, EBITDA margins in Commercial Pharma have hopped up from 25.6% to 27.1% in FY '26. Moving then to the right, to manufacturing, I think we've covered the revenue already.
EBITDA, 21% increase in constant exchange rate, moving from 647 EBITDA last year to 828, just under 200 million increase. Two moving parts there: we lost a billion rand of mRNA contract, however through our reshape program in our FDF sterile, we were able to grow that EBITDA by 1.2 billion, more than offsetting the 1 billion loss and resulting in a just under net 200 million increase in EBITDA.
These are only the initial benefits, and obviously going into FY '27, we will see the annualized benefit of this reshape program benefiting the growth in the new year. On to our group normalized EBITDA.
I'll just quickly just talk you through the table so you can absorb it. We take you through revenue, gross profit, right the way down to normalized EBITDA, and I'm comparing FY '26 to FY '25 reported, and then on next to that I've got constant exchange rate FY '25, and then all the growth factors on the right.
I'm going to keep to constant exchange rate trends. What I'll start with is our gross profit.
Gross profit grew 4%, ahead of the flat revenue of 0, and a nice jump in the gross profit percentage, up from 41.6% to 43%. What drove this increase?
Certainly the key driver was our sterile FDF recovery that I've talked you through already in the previous slide, so that was a strong augmentation of the gross margin. Then also underpinned by very stable Commercial Pharma gross profit percentages, a nice overall trend there.
When we look at operating expenses, we've enjoyed a decline in our operating expense base of 4% this year driven by the reshape benefits, expenses coming in at just under 25% of revenue as a ratio, well below last year's 26%. You can see, if I flip then down to the normalized EBITDA, how, if you take the 4% gross profit and the saving in expenses, how that leverages you to a 14% growth in normalized EBITDA.
That's a really pleasing result, and our EBITDA ending the year at 7.7 billion rand. We do, based on our guidance for '27, we do expect our EBITDA margins to continue to increase well increase in FY '27.
Probably my favorite slide: we generated a very strong free cash flow this year of 3.8 billion, and we look to sustain this growth in FY '27, and I'll talk through that in a later slide. Just to sort of unpack this slide, if you look at the graphs, I've got a comparison from FY '24, FY '25, and FY '26.
The first bars are our cash generated from operations, the blue bar next to that is our capex spend, and the very dark blue is our free cash flow that we've generated, which is the net of those two numbers. Looking at our cash from operating activities, you can see we took a dip in '25, we went down from 6 billion to 5 billion, and this year we ended pleasingly at 6.8 billion, nice growth over the last two financial years from a cash from operating activities perspective.
In terms of capex, very nice trend there, you can see we started '24 we were at 5.5 billion of capex, down to 5 billion in '25, and this year we ended the year at 3 3 billion. When you look at all of that from a free cash flow perspective, ending the year at 3.8 billion this year, last year almost a break-even free cash flow, and the previous year 700 million, a significant leap in free cash flow, and certainly something that we're going to continue to drive going forward.
What are the contributors to this strong free cash flow? Our strong EBITDA growth of 14% is a key underpin.
We've also continued to drive more than 100% operating cash conversion. Our working capital ratio this year ended at 44% of revenue, last year it was at 47, nice drop in that ratio.
Our finance costs were lower this year due to our better cash flow and the benefit of the APAC divestment in the last month. Very importantly, our capital expenditure was 2 billion rand lower than that of FY '25, as you saw, from 5 billion down to 3 billion.
If you remember from the last previous two presentations, we were guiding capex of 3.8 billion, we've managed to generate a 800 million of capex savings this year. Of that, 400 million is a real saving, and 400 will be carried forward as capex into the new year.
All in all, when you put all of that together, you can see a very good trend there and obviously gives credence to the pyramid that we spoke about earlier on. Then moving on to the APAC divestment itself, really an intrinsic value unlock, and moved us into a net cash position together with our strong free cash flow.
Just unpacking some of the elements here: this transaction was completed effective 31 May, 28 billion proceeds, gross proceeds generated with a profit on sale of 2.4 billion, which benefited our earnings per share. The very important point I want to make here: this is an indicator of the underlying asset value of the sum of our parts at 11.5 times multiple, certainly a big indicator of what value we have created in this business and what value you can still demonstrate if we continue to look at our sum of the parts value unlock strategies.
From a financial effects perspective, the APAC divestment has resulted in a materially stronger balance sheet, also giving us flexibility for capital allocation opportunities, hence our movement into share buybacks. I just wanted to alert you that we obviously will lose free cash flow with the divestment, and that's around 600 million that we will lose, and that's a combination of losing 1.6 million billion of after-tax earnings, we do however save interest after tax of just under a billion and a little bit of capex.
Net-net, we're going to lose 600 million. When I talk about driving stronger free cash flow in '27, we've got to cover this 600 plus to get to a better landing next year, and that's our target for 2027.
Moving on, this year you will have noticed we had three three different buckets of large earnings adjustments, be they in the normal earnings or the headline earnings or our normalized earnings, and the three buckets are intangible asset impairments, our restructuring costs, and the profit on the sale of APAC, coincidentally all quite similar numbers in absolute terms. Maybe if I start with the intangible asset impairments, there we picked up a charge of 2.3 billion for the year.
Bearing in mind that there's no cash impact for this, this is an accounting entry. For this year specifically, the impairment was mainly as a result of increased discount rates because of geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, certainly something outside of management's control and a technical impairment.
If you look at our overall intangible asset portfolio, we retain a valuation of more than 45% above carrying amount, but unfortunately in accounting terms, you only write down, you can't write up above carrying amount, you have to take the impairment. Just important to note that this premium of 45% is supported by the sustainable organic growth in Commercial Pharma, which Stephen has spoken about and that we've demonstrated as part of our DNA and our deliverables over two decades.
Moving on into restructure costs, there we've picked up a charge of 2.3 billion for the year, of which 1.4 billion is a cash impact and about 900 relates to impairments. These restructuring costs have been incurred to drive sustainable efficiency benefits, not only we've enjoyed some of them this year, but also sustainable benefits into the future.
Basically, based on the programs that we've already implemented, that's given us the confidence to raise our sterile EBITDA growth guidance that Stephen spoke about, where we confident, and I raise that by 0.4 billion to 2.2 billion based on the efficiencies that we're going to be driving out of these restructuring projects. On the profit of APAC, profit on sale, that speaks for itself: it's 2.4 billion, and that's all cash, so that came from the 28 billion proceeds unlock.
I think the two important takeaways from this slide are: the one is that if you look at the net cash impact of those three buckets, the cash outflow, which is the 1.4 billion in the restructuring bucket, is more than offset by the 2.4 billion, you've got a billion rand surplus there in terms of the three when you're looking at it from a cash perspective; and very importantly, the restructuring-related costs have been incurred to drive sustainable returns not only for this year, but for the future, and Stephen will unpack that in some of our outlook slides. Moving on to next year, we have guided substantial normalized earnings growth for next year for FY '27 and stronger free cash flow.
If we look at the two elements of that, what's going to drive that? In our guidance, we've guided that we're going to get to a normalized EBITDA of at least 9 billion in 2027, which implies that you're going to grow your normalized EBITDA over FY '27 by 1.3 billion, being the difference between the 7.7 and the 9.
That is underpinned by sterile growth being the main driver of growth and also solid and continuing organic growth in our Commercial Pharma business. On top of that, we're going to save interest, obviously we don't have debt anymore, we're going to have the interest saving of more than 1.2 billion.
If you just take the after-tax impact of those two elements together, that gives you an earnings benefit of over 4 rand. When you look to the right, I've got the stepped program of where we see our NHEPS progressing.
Looking at FY '25 to '26, moving from 625 cents to 802 cents, a 28% growth that we've spoken about earlier on, and we look to be driving substantial double-digit growth in FY '27 of more than 50%, being the 4 rand on over the eight more than 4 rand over the 8 rand that we did this year. Looking at the free cash flow, we look to drive stronger free cash flow in FY '27.
As you picked up from the previous slide, we've got to still recover the APAC free cash flow loss, and the underpins of this are going to be our EBITDA growth, lower finance costs, stable capital investment, and really just disciplined continued discipline in our capital allocation. We're really happy that we confident that we will drive stronger cash flow, and you can see again just to repeat what I showed in an earlier slide, our free cash flow in '26 was 166 million, up to 3.8 billion this year, and we're looking to drive stronger free cash flow into the new year.
That is all on the profit and the cash flow metrics, but we as Stephen said, we never take our eye off our very important ambitions in sustainability projects. As we've got 16 goals that we aim for across the group and those have been published.
Of those 16 goals, we've got four key pillars that we've put an absolute target on and progress that we want to maintain, and those are our patients, our people, society, and environment. On the patient aspect, we've now been able to quantify, it's still subject to final verification, but we've been able to quantify that we've been able to reach more than 165 million patients in emerging markets with our critical and essential medicines, and obviously our target is to grow that to our end-state point of 2030.
Some of the little underpins there: we've obviously made good progress in our vaccines, serum vaccines, and on the human insulin manufacture. You've seen the progress that we're making on our branded and our generic GLP-1s, and there's also some good progress in the ARV space in terms of further licensing agreements for new ARV technology.
Those are good green shoots to drive us for further growth in patient access, and patient access obviously is the DNA of Aspen, that's our North Star. Looking at people, we're at a point where we're at 32% gender balance in our top leadership positions for women, and that's nicely up on 19% in 2020 and targeting well towards our 2030 objectives.
On society, we've made good progress in our supply chain plan, we've actually screened over 2,000 suppliers from a responsible supply chain program perspective, and we continue to achieve our group ethics and compliance program goals. Last is the environment: at the moment, as for this year, we're at 34% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions with FY '20 being our base year.
Maybe one call-out for this year which we're very proud of is we have increased our renewable energy usage from 26% to 26% from 19% in the prior year, really a strong progress in the renewable energy space. I think that's all on the sustainability.
We've got lots of other goals there, but just to show we're always very balanced in looking profit, cash flow, and also our sustainability goals. I'd now like to hand back to Stephen, who will take you through the performance overview and the outlook for the year ahead.
Thank you, Stephen.
Stephen Saad
Done, Sean. Excellent, thank you.
Thanks, Sean. We can all we can all run a business from an Excel spreadsheet, and you do start with that.
What you've what you've seen, what I hope you've seen through these numbers, and hopefully what I present further, is you've got to be able to execute on it. This is something that it's been a it's been a tough year.
Reshaping is always tough, but what we have got, what is clear, is that we are back on the horse and we've got the reins firmly in hand. Sean shown you his pyramid, and his pyramid went from a flat flat EBITDA, a flat revenue rather, to NHEPS growth of 28%.
What what I'm hoping you're going to see now and understand for '27 is we don't start with flat revenue, we've got grow growing revenue and an even quicker growing NHEPS as well. The triangle's important, it's not always it's always easily achievable, but it's certainly a demonstration of having having the reins firmly in hand.
Let's have a look a little bit at the performance and the outlook for Commercial Pharma. Our revenue excluding China grew at 7%.
Growth was led by South Africa and Brazil. South Africa was driven by Mounjaro, and we'll look at that in a little bit of detail.
The Middle East was obviously negatively impacted by regional conflicts, but you know it's before COVID, 20 whatever, about 5, 6 years ago, you know we'd have one world event and we'd talk about it. Now we have an interruption in the business every year.
Almost every single year we've had over the last 6 years or so an interruption of some sort, you get used to it. The Middle East conflict has impacted our sales, has impacted our profitability commercially, but it has bigger knock-ons.
For example, it has an impact on solvents, which go into our APIs, particularly expensive in ARV APIs; it goes into plastics, and we we use a lot of plastics with our blow-fill-seal technologies and with our anesthetics, it's more and, of course, all the other things you hear about transport and trying to move stuff around. It has it has knock-on implications.
I'm not going to bore you with all of those because we now take that as part of running a global business. We've had 13% EBITDA growth, and that's as I as I said in our first slide, it retained the momentum from financial year '25.
The emerging markets are definitely our our growth engine. We've reshaped China, which has positively impacted EBITDA, you're seeing product discontinuations, a lot of those were former Sandoz generic products, and we we have more more products to take out and some of the 300 is annualized.
Through all of that, you will see a decline in turnover, but but we will not see an EBITDA that's unfavorably impacted. The South African rand has has been very strong on a generally against our basket of of currencies, and that dilutes reported revenue, so being a rand hedge stock is not always a positive.
In terms of financial year '27, the outlook, we see our base business growing in mid-single digits both in revenue and EBITDA, and we have been very conservative in adding the GLP-1s and what GLP-1 turnover is. Of course, success in Canada, Brazil, etc., rest of Sub-Saharan Africa will positively impact, but we have been in giving you these estimates, we have been very conservative on those.
Let's have a look at Mounjaro. Mounjaro, the GLP market is is unbelievably it's nearly doubled, it's got to 2.8 billion rand, and Mounjaro's gone over the last 12 months from 15% of the market to 53%.
Mounjaro's turnover is effectively what has grown that market. The demand has surged, it's been it's really has been exponential actually.
When you have a look at the total private market in South Africa, grew at 5%, 5.2%. Mounjaro alone was 40% of of the growth, it's a it's been it's been it's grown the entire pharmaceutical market, and if we take all the other products, they count for 60, every other pharma, Mounjaro alone counted for 40.
When we look at where we are in terms of the opportunities, we have GLP-1 semaglutide generic. We've had we've got registration for a dossier in Canada, in fact two dossiers, we have a second, both of them are dependent on an API supply, and and and we wait to see when that supply will will reconnect.
It will will have a very good a good position by the end of this month, or before the end of this month, the next 3 3 weeks or so are pretty important. At the moment, there've been no red flags, but you know we in the hands of of the of how that API turns out.
We've got numerous emerging markets submissions out many across many of the geographies, mainly emerging markets because the patent in emerging markets, aside from Canada, the patent in emerging markets comes off sooner. As I said to you earlier, Brazil dossier we believe is advancing, and all of these opportunities have potential to contribute to financial '27, and depending upon how early we get in, they could make a should make a meaningful contribution.
On GLP-1s Mounjaro, we've I've shown you the momentum in South Africa, we hoping to do more than 2 billion of sales in financial year '27. We have submitted in Kenya and Nigeria, and those and then there'll be the next waves that follow, but there's potential for Kenya and Nigeria, too, to contribute to financial year '27.
Manufacturing performance: we've had EBITDA growth, as Sean pointed out, despite lower sales, and that's really been driven by efficiency projects. We had over a 1 billion swing from H2 last year, and the the sterile finished dose form was impacted, as we've discussed, with the lost contracts, but it was it's been successfully reshaped for positive EBITDA in financial year '27.
If 1.7 was going to get us to break-even, that gets us to 500, and hopefully a little bit more. Of course, we've got turnover drivers, which we'll cover later, but the commercialization of the insulin contract in South Africa was an important landmark for us as well.
I've done something which we haven't done in the past, which was to really split out the manufacturing business so you can have a look at what the drivers are and where the profits are. The finished dose form other, which is quite a big growth here, really is has has increased sales, but it's got limited profitability, I'd almost, scratch it out if I was looking at for profitability.
The biggest driver of profitability is if the finished dose form steriles grow, and if the API businesses the API businesses' turnover goes up. Just before we flick on, you'll notice that the sterile business went from 3.8 to 2.4 billion, which is which is a significant downward movement, and we'll see where that goes to now, but understand of course that was the contract.
What is the outlook for manufacturing? We are forecasting revenue growth of greater than 50%.
If you go back to the last slide, that takes you back to where you were turnover-wise with the contract, but it's off a much lower cost base now, you're going to make much more profitability now than you did then. It's it's also helped us it's it's we've raised the guidance to by 0.5 billion to a billion for this to this year alone.
Heparin, and that is why in my earlier slide I said I was really pleased about the process improvements and fixes in heparin. Heparin, I've told you over the years, has been a been a positive in our results and a negative depending upon where it is and was in the commodity cycle.
We've done a lot of work to make sure that commodity cycle does not impact us, you're going to see turnover decrease, substantial decrease in turnover in heparin, but you're going to see the EBITDA doesn't change, and that's shielded because we've got lower sourcing costs, which are matched, and and they'd be higher if the price goes up, it's matched to the price, we've managed to link that, and these new the new processes we've worked through have really given us the savings and the ability to hold more and less stock. We're in a fantastic position.
It's taken 10 years to get here, but we've got a model that works. APIs, I've told you, are very profitable section of the Aspen business, and you'll see this year they returned to growth.
It's driven by improved supply of something called human chorionic gonadotropin. It's a product used for fertility and was and you actually have to harvest the urine from pregnant woman.
We battled with supply, and it's been but it's it's been positive now that supply. We also have some new product launches.
It's a business that takes on clinical products, and if one of them works or two of them work, you've got a client going forward. It's often dependent on that, and it looks like there's some of those are going to come to fruition.
In terms of the finished dose form other, the sales will double, driven by the APAC, but as I told you earlier, don't get excited about it, there's not a lot of profitability attached to to that. APAC is the region we sold, and we've got and now provide product to that region out of our manufacturing.
Steriles: the sterile finished gross finished dose form is our primary driver of increasing in the whole group's profitability, we believe this year. The tariffs made it a very, very tricky time for us on top of losing the contract, and and we there might have been some linkage there as well.
What we are seeing is clients and increase in clients and normal business and and growth in businesses that we have. We forecasting revenue to grow by 50% for financial year '27.
It's a significant driver of profitability, as I said to you earlier, it's a limited incremental cost, a lower fixed base, and that leverage, turnover up, cost down, is what adds to bottom-line growth. We're going to see revenue growth in both South Africa and France.
There've been there's material volume increases across both sites, and with volume take it as revenue as well, and that includes aside from insulin, portfolio expansions, and just base volume increases from of our clients as well. Very very much more positively placed than we were a a little while back.
What are some of the near-term future opportunities? We we've had the WHO come and visit us, and this is needed in order to get the pediatric vaccines for hexa and the PCVs.
Hexa is six six different components or six six different antigens that address things like whooping whooping cough, diphtheria, polio, etc., all in one, six in one, and then PCV, which is for pneumonia, it's all the variants on pneumonia. A pneumococcal vaccine.
They're both very high-volume vaccines. We need the WHO PQ, PQ means prequalified by the WHO.
They completed the inspection in Aspen, we hope to get the the results, positive results hopefully from that, and then we we hope for that we will have we will have prequalification in this calendar year. There are, I'm happy to say, when I spoke to you previously around tariffs, I said, all conversations have died, you know there are other opportunities under discussion and some progressing, and and hopefully these will sustain the momentum created in the sterile business.
This is probably one of the most exciting developments in ARV, if registered, in combating HIV. It's a So so before I get to that one, which is the license from Merck, let me just tell you we also had we got the FDA approval for our site to make a triple-dose ARV, instead we now not just going to supply South Africa only, we going to look at broader Africa volumes and the donor funding into those African markets around ARVs.
There's really an opportunity with MSD for a new product. It's a once-a-month oral HIV prediction prevention tablet, really handy to take.
It's not every day, once a month. It's an innovative dosing approach for the fight against HIV, and it's currently in Phase III clinical trials, and we're really hopeful that that does come through for for for all people in for all people across the world, and particularly for for Africa.
With that, and having looked at where we were, I'm going to give you some guidance as to to what we where we are. If you remember in the last presentation, we showed you, "Listen, we've done 9.6 billion rand of profit EBITDA in 2025."
We divested Australia and we lost a contract, and in total, although we we got 28 billion rand, we we lost 3.6 billion rand of EBITDA. We got an adjusted base of 6 billion.
We've achieved growth of 1.7 on that 6 billion, just nearly 30% off off that base for financial year '27, and we we will get our intention is to get at least a further 1.3 billion to achieve 9 billion of EBITDA, which if we get to 9 billion, that's 50% growth. Obviously, if we go beyond that, and and we're telling you we want to go beyond that by saying greater than, but if we go beyond that, we need we'll have to grow more than 50% off that base.
What drives that growth? It's really the sterile the sterile finished dose forms driven by the operating leverage.
We also see APIs contributing to growth in financial year '27 with the new products. Then the Commercial Pharma base rollout, and the base is in here, but a global GLP-1 rollout to contribute substantially is not in our is not in any of this guidance.
Sterile sterile finished dose form leverage from efficiencies and Commercial Pharma organic growth with GLP-1s additive. The last the last page on guidance is the targets we've set for financial '27.
We told you about the EBITDA, that translates into 9 billion of EBITDA to at least 17% of of, and that's just a mathematical calculation. Manufacturing, we more than double financial year '26 EBITDA.
Sterile finished dose form will will achieve positive to achieve positive EBITDA. Commercial, mid-single digits and EBITDA growth in both revenue and EBITDA, apologies, and commencement of the GLP-1s will be additive.
I think you're going to see, as Sean showed you, substantial CER growth in NHEPS, more than 50%; stronger free cash flows; disciplined capital allocation, and we'll we'll touch on that on the next slide; and the and our tax rates are 24-25%, a little bit higher than what we were in the past. Manufacturing tends to have a higher tax cost attached to it.
As with all our results, this year and every other year before, currency has a has an impact on our reported results. We're going to look at the capital allocation because a lot of people asked a lot of questions last time and and how we see it.
At the end of the day, we've got a very strong balance sheet, we're in a net cash position, and balance having a strong balance sheet really enhances your flexibility of options. Sean has told you the capex will will trend towards his depreciation and amortization numbers, and there's a sustained working capital focus, big prioritization on free cash flow and returns.
With with the growth drivers we've got, we we focused on organic growth, we don't see any large-scale acquisitions. There's always opportunities out there at some point to get bolt-on product ranges for our Commercial Pharma business.
What are we going to do? If we've got cash, growing cash, our preferred option is buybacks.
Of course, we're going to focus on organic growth, we we're going to retain the dividend payout, we're going to keep looking at opportunities to unlock sum of parts, and that's that's, that is in motion as we speak, it's always we are looking at all those opportunities. Then the buybacks are are, as I said earlier, our absolute preferred use of capital, particularly while there's such a big value arbitrage between what we've got in terms of assets versus what the the market capitalization of the business.
When you look at it, if someone says, "Oh, you're making 9 billion or more than 9 billion next year," and I put a multiple on that, and maybe that's, 7 times, I don't know what our market cap is, 7.5 times, whatever the number is, it's low relative to what we could get on our base. In addition, because the sterile business is only breaking even here, you're getting that for free in the multi So it all doesn't make sense to us, while it doesn't make sense, it's great, it gives us a very clear and obvious place of where to put our capital.
Yes, buybacks are preferred and we would and and that's and that's how our capital will be allocated. I think that's the last slide.
From here, we can move to Q&A, Roy. Thanks.
Thank you everyone, appreciate your time and attendance at our meeting. Thank you.
Thank you, Stephen. Thank you, Sean.
Done, congratulations. Thank you to everybody that has sent through some questions and especially for the messages of congratulations on a on a good set of results, there's been a number of those.
There's a few there is a few questions that have come through. I'll I'll try and combine most of them because most of them are still relate to the GLP-1 stories, but first, the first question to come through was from from Matthew, it was very early on in the presentation, and he was he was asking about how we will continue to respond to the opportunities within the value of the sum of the parts and whether we are in discussions with anybody.
Matthew, I hope that Stephen has answered the your question as the presentation has gone gone through, and just now he just said that's it's always in motion, and obviously we'll follow the right protocol.
Stephen Saad
There are discussions going on. As soon as it becomes real and tangible, then we'll let the market know.
Let's get on to Jonathan du Toit from Oyster Catcher. Let me phrase the question like this: for the generalist that is now attending the presentation today, they know that there's an API supply issue in Canada, maybe if you can just unpack what that is and what timing you expect from that.
Stephen Saad
I think, for a generalist. You have a API, that's a chemical that goes into the pharmaceutical.
You have a look, it's got certain parameters on purity and all those things that you've got to stick within, and the API has not stayed within those boundaries set by the Canadian authorities. If I as a generalist or just want you to know what the answer is, I think I mentioned in our presentation: we will know by the end of this month where we stand.
Every day you look at your product, you look at your API and see what's it doing. From our understanding, we are in a position where there are no red flags at this point.
Of course, it can change very quickly, but the next 3 weeks are critical, and within 3 weeks we'll be able to answer for that product and that dossier. I do want to point out that our GLP-1s are not confined to that API globally.
We've got other API suppliers in other markets, Brazil is not dependent on that API, it's just awaiting a registration.
Thank you, Stephen. Then sticking with the GLP-1s, Warren from Bataleur and another question that has come through I think from Chepo, just in terms of the competitive environment in the semaglutide generic in the markets that you're in, and how should we think about the growth trajectory beyond FY '27?
Stephen Saad
It's going to be a very competitive market, it always will be, but there's some nuances in this market. Firstly, I think there's simply just not enough people having access, and for those people that can get access, it's very expensive.
In a world where it becomes affordable, I believe that there'll be a very big explosion of volumes, particularly across emerging markets, which have not been supplied at the volumes required. You will see an explosion in those volumes.
Those volumes because it's sterile are not simply like making more and more tablets, In my opinion, you will see prices drop, they'll be less than half the price of the innovator products in semaglutide, And for those of you that aren't where, there's a lot of copy products and not even registered, even take South Africa, I'm sure you've all read whether people are compounding these products, going to the gym instructor, the beauty salon, Everyone's an expert in giving out products that are unregistered. I believe a lower cost profile will actually mean a lot of switch out of those products.
The non-registered product is thought to be significantly bigger than the registered market. There's already a sort of black market out there, but also people who will take and say, "Look, I feel safe and confident with this medicine."
I think the market is going to grow substantially, but will it be competitive? Of course it will be competitive.
We're used to competing. We well positioned to compete with ultimately being able to move all products into our own sterile facilities.
Thank you. Apologies, previously it was from Sean that asked the question.
Sean, does the 1.2 billion rand lower finance costs take into account 2 billion rand share buyback already done? Junaid from Laurium.
Sean Capazorio
Yes, it does because you generate cash during the year. It might if we bought up to 20%, for example, then there might be a shift in to interest paid, but then you've got a lot less shares.
It's a good question from that point of view. It does take account of share buybacks at this level, but as you go more and more, then you might be buying back more shares than cash generated.
Jan from PSG: just a bit more detail, please, on the 923 million inventory impairments included in restructuring costs.
Stephen Saad
Sean, would you want to come in? Sorry, I'm busy answering all your questions.
Sean Capazorio
No worries. That's part of our overall efficiency enhancement projects.
There are, obviously as we improve changing processes and structuring those various businesses, we are looking at the inventory that supports that, and those will come. An example would be, for example, the eye drop unit, we've had to impair all of that inventory, we had to close down the eye drop, so that's part of it.
It's a mix of products.
Thank you, Sean. Maybe if you can just remind the market just in terms of what we have for general approval for share buybacks?
20%.
Sean Capazorio
20%, yeah.
Just refreshing. Right, I think I have covered all the questions.
Sorry, Tshepogang from Umthombo Wealth, he was just asking referring to China and the reshape, whether there's any expansion opportunities in that region. I think he was referring to that region.
Stephen Saad
If you're referring to China, yes there are, but I don't want to bore everyone with a lot of information, but you've got to be very, very careful where you expand and what IP you get. The very big positive is China itself is producing unbelievable early research.
One of the advantages Aspen has is to say to a developer, "We can take your product and we'd like to take it for China." It's always quite difficult sometimes to get China from Chinese developers, "but we can also take it globally and put it into our markets."
There are opportunities, but we will and we do look, we'll and find them, but it would be to increase your portfolio. It would be a slightly different review of portfolio compared to say what we do in other markets, but probably the most exciting market in terms of developing IP, I think that second only to the US.
Incredible from almost nowhere clinically to where they've got to.
Good. I think I've covered all the questions that have come through.
Congratulations. I think if there is anything else that anybody does want, please feel free to get in touch with myself or Zandre.
Stephen, Sean, I'll hand it over to you just to close off the presentation. No,
Stephen Saad
well thank you. Thanks everyone, and thanks for your attendance.
It's been a tough year, but we're really pleased with where we are. Obviously, we nearly quarter the way through the next year, and that's, and so sort of got to wind back in time to get here, but yeah, great and but just to let we're really positive, quarter of the way through this year.
What we telling you is we're very comfortable with what we going to deliver on. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
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