Iren S.p.A.

Iren S.p.A.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 30, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Iren Group conference call. My name is [Sasha?]

, and I will be your conference operator for today's event. During the presentation, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode.

However, at the end of the presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the call over to Carlo Dubini, Head of Investor Relations, who will begin today's conference.

Thank you, and please go ahead.

Carlo Dubini

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the conference call to present the Iren Group's results as of 30th June 2026. Results will be presented by Executive Chairman Luca Dal Fabbro and CFO Giovanni Gazza.

At the end of the presentation, we will hold the usual Q&A session. I will now hand over to Luca to present the results for the period.

Luca Dal Fabbro

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The results approved a moment ago by the Board of Directors confirm the strength of our business model and provide solid foundations for the growth expected in the second half of the year.

First-half performance was supported by significant organic growth in our regulated activities, demonstrating the quality and resilience of our business portfolio, which is characterized by a 73% share of EBITDA generated by regulated and semi-regulated activities. An additional contribution came from our efficiency synergy plan, which generated about €11 million of benefits in the period, already reaching 55% of the target expected for the full year 2026.

These positive factors were partly offset by unfavorable weather conditions, which affected hydroelectric production, already reduced by extra maintenance activities planned at the beginning of the year, and which had already required reservoir levels to be drawn down at the end of 2025. From a financial standpoint, operating cash flow amounted to €530 million, allowing us to fully finance our investment plan of approximately €410 million, up 4% compared with the first half of 2025.

Turning to page 3, as usual, we review the main economic and financial results for the period. EBITDA reached €732 million, up 1% compared with the same period last year.

This result was mainly supported by three factors. First, organic growth of approximately €30 million during the semester, driven by our networks businesses, which contributed around €10 million overall, also thanks to the evolution of the regulatory framework, mainly reflecting a higher deflator and the recognition of higher operating costs.

Second, a favorable energy market environment, both in the day-ahead market and in the ancillary services market and capacity market, which generated an overall improvement of approximately €15 million compared with last year's result. Finally, the progress of our synergy plan, which, as already mentioned, contributed €11 million in the period.

These positive effects were partially offset by several negative factors: in particular, lower hydroelectric production, impacted by the lack of rainfall and reduced water availability in reservoirs, which resulted in a production decline of approximately 190 GWh; the progressive normalization of gas sales margins, in line with expectations; the slowdown of energy efficiency projects, particularly in the area of repiecing initiatives—this is another general factor in the market. EBIT amounted to €380 million, down 2%, mainly due to higher depreciation following the commissioning of investments carried out over the last 12 months.

Group net income amounted to €182 million, which was affected by a higher tax rate compared with last year, standing at 30.5%. Technical investments during the period amounted to €409 million, up 4% compared with last year, mainly driven by investments by the energy business unit related to the ongoing installation of air coolers at thermal power plants, as well as the expansion of district heating networks.

During the semester, significant investments were also made in the development of water and electricity networks, waste treatment and disposal facilities, including the completion of an organic waste treatment plant in Liguria, and digital transformation through IT projects. Net financial debt increased by €54 million compared with year-end 2025, despite the payment of €189 million in dividends.

With this, I will hand over to Giovanni for a more detailed review of the performance of our individual businesses and the main operational developments during the semester.

Giovanni Gazza

Thank you, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you from my side as well. As usual, we start our review with the Networks business unit presented on page 4.

In the first half of 2026, the Networks business confirmed its growth trajectory, reporting EBITDA of €274 million, up 1% compared with the same period last year. The growth becomes even more significant when considering the impact of non-recurring items.

In particular, in the first half of 2025, non-recurring items contributed approximately €21 million: €8 million related to the technical quality incentive scheme, €3 million related to adjustments for the integrated water service, and €10 million related to inflation adjustments of gas operating costs in according with the ARERA resolution number 570. This was in 2025.

In the current semester, by contrast, we recorded only €5 million of non-recurring items relating to water service adjustments. Therefore, excluding non-recurring items, year-on-year EBITDA growth would have been 8%, corresponding to an increase of €19 million.

EBITDA growth was therefore driven by organic growth and positive regulatory effects, which contributed approximately €10 million together, with a significant contribution from the group synergy plan, which amounted overall to €11 million. The positive performance of this business unit was mainly supported by the integrated water service and electricity distribution, two business areas that continue to benefit from our investment-driven growth strategy, as demonstrated by the increase in their RAB, up 6% and 4% respectively, as you can see on the lower right side.

Technical investments by the business unit reached €177 million, mainly focused on water service networks and electricity distribution networks. For electricity distribution, we also expect a significant acceleration in the final part of the year, with investments expected to increase by approximately €30 million compared with 2025.

These investments are aimed at making the electricity network more resilient and better equipped to support the growing electrification of consumption, as well as the impact of increasingly challenging climate conditions, especially in the summer. Among the main operational developments during the semester, we highlight the signing, also following the resolution of previous legal disputes, of the preliminary agreement for the sale of [IdroAmbiente?]

, the operator of the integrated water service in part of the Cuneo province, to the in-house company Cogesi. Completion of this transfer process is expected in the fourth quarter 2026.

Second, the continued progress of the main infrastructure projects in the water, electricity, and gas sectors, as well as the strengthening of smart metering and remote reading programs. These initiatives will contribute over coming years to further improve service quality and operational efficiency.

Moving to page 5, the Environment business unit recorded EBITDA growth of 12%, reaching €148 million. This increase was supported by the recognition of extraordinary adjustments relating to previous periods amounting to €16 million, linked to the higher valuation of sorted waste treatment activities, as well as by the collection of a €4 million insurance reimbursement related to the fire that occurred in 2024 at a plastic sorting facility.

Looking now at the main operational trends in the period, we can highlight that the waste collection business increased by approximately €1 million compared with last year, following the tariff increases introduced by the regulator, despite higher operating costs related to the increase in personnel expenses due to contract renewals and fuel costs. WTE reported EBITDA of €60 million, substantially stable compared with last year.

During the first half of 2026, performance was impacted by temporary plant shutdowns due to technical issues: first at the Poggibonsi WTE plant, and subsequently at the Turin waste-to-energy facility. Material recovery plants reported an overall result of €8 million and showed mixed trends.

The performance of organic waste treatment plants or FORSU plants remained negative, although there is a limited partial recovery, and they were impacted by lower treated volumes due to a plant shutdown lasting approximately two months. Conversely, the performance of the other material recovery plants was positive, benefiting from higher operational efficiency at the wood treatment plant, higher prices for the treatment of separately collected plastic waste, and the ramp-up of a new paper and cardboard sorting and recovery facility.

The negative trend in landfills continued, as also shown in the chart on the right-hand side, which highlights the lower volumes managed, down 8%. This is due to saturation of certain sites, and EBITDA decreased by a total of €4 million.

This reduction is expected to be partly recovered in the second half of the year thanks to higher waste inflows following the expansion of certain sites, including the CSAI landfill, which now has an additional available capacity of 80,000 tonnes, the Manduria site with available capacity of 135,000 tonnes until 2027, and other two facilities, Barricalla and Podere Rota, which have available landfill capacity until 2035. The Energy business unit on page 6 closed the first half of the year with EBITDA of €166 million, down 5% compared with last year, mainly due to lower hydroelectric production volumes and fewer energy efficiency projects.

Analyzing the performance of the different business lines and the main year-on-year variations: for renewable generation, hydroelectric and photovoltaic recorded an overall EBITDA decrease of €13 million. In particular, hydroelectric production recorded an overall decline of €15 million during the semester due to lower hydroelectric volumes, down 190 GWh, and the expiry of a significant portion of green certificates, down 70 GWh in the semester, with an expected impact of 200 GWh for the full year.

Several factors reduced results by €21 million and €4 million respectively. These impacts were partly offset by higher captured energy prices, particularly on unhedged hydroelectric production.

Secondly, photovoltaic volumes increased by 10% thanks to the commissioning of two new photovoltaic plants in Noto and Cavarzere. This growth was achieved despite some technical issues that prevented full utilization of installed capacity, and to a lesser extent, the frequent curtailment measures requested by Terna, particularly during the spring period.

Overall, photovoltaic generation contributed positively with €2 million during the period. Thirdly, generation from CCGT and thermal power plants increased by €5 million.

This improvement was mainly attributable to merchant thermoelectric generation activity at Turbigo, which increased electricity production by 22%, corresponding to 220 GWh, benefiting both from improved capture clean spark spreads and from a higher number of operating hours. Cogeneration CCGT plants were substantially stable, also due to the lower availability of the Moncalieri plant following issues that emerged in the final weeks of June affecting the cooling system, caused by lower water flows in the channels serving the plant due to a dry period in the last two months.

The capacity market and ancillary services market provided a growing contribution compared with the first half of 2025, generating overall EBITDA of approximately €63 million, up €8 million year-on-year. In particular, the MSD market increased by approximately €6 million compared with last year, highlighting attractive opportunities for operators like us with flexible assets and the ability to modulate plant output during periods of high demand.

Fourth point, district heating: it recorded a 4% decline in volumes sold due to an earlier-than-usual end to the heating season compared with 2025 due to a warm April. Despite lower volumes, EBITDA increased by €6 million.

Finally, as already mentioned, energy efficiency recorded a lower level of activity due to the reduction in relamping projects, which had still represented a significant contribution during 2025. We conclude the review of business units with the Market business unit presented on page 7.

In the first half of 2026, the business unit recorded an EBITDA of €144 million, down 2% compared with the same period last year. The performance mainly reflects two factors that were already highlighted during the previous quarterly update in March: the progressive normalization of unit margins in the gas business, with an impact of approximately €5 of EBITDA per customer—this trend was expected following the exceptional market conditions experienced in previous years and will continue during the year, although to a lesser extent; and the reduction in the customer base, which also resulted in lower gas sales.

We also highlight a reduction in average gas consumption per retail customer, reflecting greater attention to energy usage in a context of generally higher energy costs. The competitive environment remained highly challenging, resulting in a net reduction of approximately 50,000 customers during the semester.

Against this backdrop, the group decided to pursue a strategy increasing its focus on value creation, prioritizing the quality of acquired customers and favoring physical acquisition channels rather than simply pursuing customer base expansion. In particular, we progressively reduced mass customer acquisition campaigns and investments in digital channels characterized by high acquisition costs and higher-than-average churn rates.

To understand the evolution of EBITDA to group net income, let us move to page 8. Starting from the operating performance already discussed, we can highlight: first, depreciation and amortization increased by approximately €13 million, mainly due to the commissioning of investments carried out over the last 12 months, in line with the group's infrastructure development plan.

Second, provisions for doubtful receivables increased by approximately €2 million, mainly within the Environment business unit, due to the transition from a collection model based on municipal taxation to a system based on a service fee directly paid by users to the group. Third, the average cost of debt remained stable at 2.36%, confirming the effectiveness of our financial management strategy in a market environment that continues to show elements of volatility.

Fourth, the tax rate, including the increase in the IRAP tax rate, stood at approximately 30.5%. Fifth, the result attributable to minority interests decreased by approximately €2 million, mainly following lower performances recorded by some equity-accounted companies.

Taking all these effects into account, group net income reached €182 million, substantially in line with the first half of last year, with a decrease of only €2 million. We complete our economic and financial review with the evolution of the net financial position illustrated on page 9.

As of 30th June 2026, net financial debt stood at €4,276 million, increasing by €54 million compared with year-end 2025. Analyzing the main drivers of this change, we can see that operating cash flow reached €530 million, more than covering technical investments during the period.

This was also supported by the tax credit disposal program related to the ecobonus/superbonus scheme, which continued during the semester and generated total cash proceeds of €146 million. With regard to net working capital, the increase of €283 million can be attributed to the following factors: €50 million related to medium- to long-term receivables, associated mainly with extra-tariff items in the water cycle and waste collection businesses; and the remaining €230 million roughly was driven by two seasonal effects: first, investment payments reflecting the acceleration in project execution recorded at the end of last year, with the related cash outflow from payments occurring mainly in the first part of the current year; and second, seasonal factor related to CCGT and thermal generation: during the winter quarters, higher production levels generate a favorable working capital effect as electricity sales revenues are collected faster than payments for gas procurement; and finally, the item related to M&A and transactions disposals includes cash proceeds of €68 million deriving from the sale to Cogesi of the integrated water service business in the province of Cuneo, which was already discussed when commenting on the Networks business unit.

I will now hand back to Luca for the concluding remarks and for the update on the 2026 financial guidance.

Luca Dal Fabbro

Thank you, Giovanni. We conclude the presentation, as usual, with an overview of the outlook for the coming months.

As anticipated during our previous conference call, the expected growth for 2026 will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and in particular in the fourth quarter, for various reasons. First, we expect the growth trajectory of the networks regulated businesses to continue, supported by ongoing investments.

Second, excluding the one-off item that impacted the results of the Environment business unit in 2025-2026, we expect EBITDA to remain broadly in line with the previous year: the higher operating costs in waste collection will be offset by the improved profitability of material recovery plants. Third, we expect a positive performance from generation activities in the coming months, thanks to a more favorable energy market environment with higher spot prices, despite an 80% hedging level on second-half production, and clean spark spreads that continue to ensure adequate profitability for thermal generation.

These positive factors will set lower hydroelectric volumes expected also in the coming months as a carryover effect of the low hydrological availability experienced during the second quarter. For the Market business unit, we expect a progressive reduction in margins due to a highly challenging competitive environment, and we expect the continued benefit from our efficiency synergy plan, which we estimate will generate approximately €20 million of benefits by year-end.

Considering the adverse weather conditions and the consequent impact on hydroelectric production, we have decided to update our 2026 guidance, and the revised guidance reflects the lower contribution expected from hydroelectric generation, with expected production volumes reduced from 1,200 GWh to 1,050 GWh, but the group's industrial fundamentals remain unchanged and the positive outlook for the other businesses is confirmed. In particular, we expect EBITDA growth of approximately 2% compared with 2025, technical investments of approximately €950 million, a net financial debt to EBITDA ratio broadly stable at around 3.1 times, implying an expected year-end net working capital above the '25 level by more than €150 million, and group net income growth of approximately 2% compared with 2025.

With this, we have concluded the presentation, and we can now open the Q&A session. Thank you for your attention.

Operator

Thank you very much. I would like to remind you that if you would like to ask a question, you can press the pound key on your telephone.

The first question comes from Javier Suárez. Please go ahead.

Javier Suárez

Hello. Good evening, everybody, and thank you for this presentation.

The first question is about the guidance and the guidance update you made, which is relatively low. The question is: is this due only to the hydroelectric issue, which is only a set of about 1 TWh, or are there other dynamics that moved you to review the guidance and made it lower?

I would like to know the different moving pieces. Second question is about an update on the negotiations and the review of legal framework for the hydroelectric generation regulators in Italy.

I would like to know if you have some comments on the consultation document of ARERA on the implementation of the model from 2028 onwards, and what dynamics you see in the supply business during the second half of the year. Thank you.

Luca Dal Fabbro

The guidance update is linked to our review of hydroelectric production. In May, we had foreseen an annual hydroelectric production of 1.2 TWh, and today we foresee 1.05 TWh.

We corrected the amount of GWh because we don't see it in our reservoirs and also in the turbined part. This update takes into account the progress in in the autumn period, because the first part of the year is characterized by snow, the second part of the year by rainfalls, and we have considered at the moment a standard a standard movement following the last 10 years.

This EBITDA reduction is partially offset, we don't see a direct impact of this 150 GWh that amount to about €18 million. It's not directly impacting EBITDA because we have a recovery in the business unit in the Networks business unit, as you can see from the semester results, that offset and reduced the overall effect due to the hydroelectric production.

Concerning the concessions and the hydroelectric regulations, the government made an extension and gave ARERA the role of remodulate the investments, and there is a mechanism to increase and change specific specific procedures. This applies to the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, but also it also applies to Emilia-Romagna, Lombardia, and Piemonte.

We are waiting for ARERA's response and for and then we can implement. We are proceeding at the regional level in Piemonte, Lombardia, etc., for the normalization through an extension of the of the concessions or through bidding.

We have no clear framework at the moment, and we asked the government because we need more more certainties. At the moment, we are waiting for answers, and we asked the government for answers.

We will see in the next few months what will happen. Concerning ROSS, yes, we have seen the consultation document.

We were expecting a document that was more in line with the electrical side, we believe there could be some benefits, but not so significant. We don't have any comment, either positive or negative.

We are assessing the situation and also the parameters, also because it cannot be applied to all the items. There are some items that may be excluded.

Concerning gas distribution, we also expect a high investment profile, and we will continue to do so. Concerning the fourth question, concerning supply: in the semester, we had a reduction of €5 of margin per customer.

This dynamic is expected to continue in the second half, not on the same level, we don't foresee a minus a down €10 per customer, we expect a a minus €6 or €7 per customer. This is related to margins.

Related to customer base, the churn rate is still elevated. It's around 25%-27%.

This is also due to our highly selective commercial policy. We expect about roughly about 40,000 customers in the second half of the year.

The movement of the customer base on the offers: we see that at the moment we see many fixed-price offers, and there is a trend towards fixed-price offers. Today we have 68% at changing rate and 32% at fixed price.

This fixed-price component is totally covered, we don't have any risk due to changing prices.

Javier Suárez

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler Cheuvreux. You have the floor.

Emanuele Oggioni

Good afternoon, and thank you for this presentation. I have a few questions.

The first one is an update on the hedging levels for 2026, and in particular for 2027 in terms of volumes and percentage of volumes, and also prices. The second question is a follow-up on market supply: so a detail on churn rate.

In the Q1 conference call, you were talking about a churn rate around 26%-27%, and I would like to have an update on this and your view on the rest of the year. Also a breakdown that was mentioned before, but I couldn't hear, if you talked about the exact percentage of fixed-price contracts, if you could be more granular about this.

For the Waste business unit, you already commented on the trend for the H2, but I would like more granularity on the moving parts of the Waste business in the second part of the year. Thank you.

Giovanni Gazza

Yes, concerning hedging: starting with 2026, we are in July, the end of July. We can give some anticipatory data.

We covered 80% of renewable production. This is updated with the guidance at about €105 for GWh, and we also have a percentage of not hedged renewable production and we have covered 105 GWh.

Concerning 2027, at the moment, we keep the forecast that we already made: renewable production of 1,150 GWh, and we covered about 45% of this production at a price of €100 per MWh. Concerning market supply, I confirm our full-year churn rate from 25% to 27%.

There were no changes in the churn rate dynamics. We had communicated 26%-27%, and now we communicate 25%-27%.

Concerning the mix, this is the chance to give you an update on this dynamic, because the customers are moving from fixed price to a variable price. In May, we had declared a 30% fixed price, 70% variable price.

Now we are at 32% fixed price and 68% variable price. This is a progressive process.

Concerning Environment, the results and semester performance was impacted by the €16 million related to previous variance, which cannot be replicated in the second half of 2026. On the other hand, we had an important one-off last year at year-end, in comparing the two semesters in the two years, we must clarify this point.

From a management and business point of view, we foresee a recovery of margins on EBITDA. As you could hear, we had the two technical problems in the Poggibonsi site and in the Turin site, and this cannot be replicated.

As we anticipated, we also have the opening of some new plants: the CSAI and the Barricalla plants. We'll have a higher contribution from this kind of plants.

On the other hand, on the collection activity, we foresee it substantially in line with the one foreseen in the first semester. Overall, I would like to highlight that we are seeing in the first semester a recovery of the margins of treatment and sorting plants, plus €6 million in the first semester, and this improved performance is forecasted also for the second semester.

Operator

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Francesco Sala from Banca Akros.

You have the floor.

Francesco Sala

Good afternoon, and thank you for answering these questions. The first one is about the progress of the network activity in the fourth quarter.

What are the main drivers of the improvement you have foreseen? The second question is on the clean spark spreads progress: what is the electricity demand and how the consumption in Italy went?

Thank you.

Giovanni Gazza

Yes, I would like to start with the last one because it's very interesting. At the moment, we have very high prices.

We can see points of €180. In the full year, we have forecasts at the level of about €480 per MWh.

We have an increase of €10, and this dynamic also affected clean spark spreads. There are some opportunities, but they are limited at certain hours, at certain times.

The positive spark spreads can be captured only at some moments in the morning for thermoelectric plants or in the evening. We need a lot of flexibility and a great availability of the plants.

As we explained, the availability of plants at the moment is conditioned by the possibility of cooling the plants. We already had some limitations in the Moncalieri plant, and we can foresee some contractions if the temperatures continue to be so high in the Turbigo plant.

We can see important clean spark spreads, but they are limited in time, in hour duration, and most of all, we need full availability and flexibility of thermoelectric plants. Concerning networks, in 2025 we had the important one-offs in the first semester linked to the quality of services and commercial quality.

We foresee that this dynamic can be replicated in the second semester, except for the one-offs. As we highlighted an important increase in margins in the first semester, we foresee the same in the second semester, because Networks business takes advantage from organic growth linked to the level of investments and from synergies.

The group amounted to €10 million organic growth in the first semester and an important part of €11 million of synergies.

Operator

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Roberto Letizia from Equita.

You have the floor.

Roberto Letizia

Good evening, and thank you for this presentation. I would like to ask very quickly, because I lost the first part: I wanted to be sure that the new guidance includes also the solution of the plant of Turbigo.

A quick clarification because I lost it earlier. Also a specific question about 2027, because from your indication, the hedge coverage for next year is relatively low, which is positive at the moment because the curve for 2027 increased for the first quarter for the whole year.

I wanted to ask if you foresee an acceleration in the second part of 2027, and if this can be translated with a full benefit for Iren's profitability, or if you have some consideration on the integrated margin. Thank you very much.

Giovanni Gazza

Yes, I confirm that the guidance update also takes into account the thermoelectric production. Especially this factor doesn't allow us to have important upsides, it doesn't significantly lower the forecast, but it is a justification of the fact that at the moment we don't see large upsides on the thermoelectric production side in August, because we don't have full availability of the plants.

Concerning 2027, it's true we are at 45%. Our targets are always set of reaching a 70%-80% coverage for the whole production of renewable production.

We are at that level because it's true that prices are high, but if we look at the forecasts for 2027, they are very high in the first semester, and they are very high in April, May. At the moment, we are not in a condition to significantly close the coverage.

Certainly, at the moment, this is an opportunity. We believe that prices can be adequate to be near to delivery.

In the second part of the year, there could be some opportunities to exploit to improve the level of our hedges on renewable production.

Operator

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo.

You have the floor.

Davide Candela

Hello. Thank you for this presentation and for taking questions.

I have two questions. The first one is a clarification on the guidance and a follow-up on the answers you have already given.

This review to lower is because you didn't take into account the positive one-offs. Is this another condition in contrast with your previous forecast?

Does this include the IRAP effect, and what are the moving parts in this sense? The second question is related to AIS and network heating.

Can there be an impact on your forecast, or can it be considered a pass-through cost inside your models? Last question about data centers: do you have an update on that, maybe on your potential, especially in Turbigo or cogeneration plants?

Thank you.

Giovanni Gazza

Concerning the first question on the guidance, I confirm that the one-offs were already known in May when we gave you the previous guidance. I also confirm that the guidance on net profits of up 2% includes all the IRAP effects coming from the decree relating to energy bills.

Concerning ETS: yes, we already included the worst-case scenario, and this doesn't have an impact on our progressive scenarios. These are very lucrative projects that we plan to implement as soon as possible, following our plan.

Concerning data centers, we are working with all of the plants and with potential partners. We are negotiating with a business model that is typical for us.

We don't give equities as other operators do, but we share the benefits and the savings on the energy transportation costs. We include a part of the savings on energy bills.

We give them a PPA, providing them energy, and we take it. Today this is not an upside, but as soon as we will sign the first agreements next year, this will be including in the plans, and the data improve.

Operator

There are no further questions. I will give the floor back to the room for the conclusions.

Luca Dal Fabbro

Thank you for your questions, everybody, and thank you for being here. Now we greet you, and thank you.

We will see you at the next meeting. Thank you very much.