Mar Martinez
Hello, good morning, and welcome everyone to this event where, as you can see from the agenda now on the screen, our CEO, José Bogas, and our CFO, Marco Palermo, will first comment on the results achieved in 2025 and then we will present the updated strategic plan for the next 3 years. After some closing remarks, we will open the Q&A session.
Thank you, and now I would like to turn to Mr. Bogas.
Thank you.
José Bogas
Sorry. Thank you, Mar.
Good morning, and welcome to everyone. Let me start with the results achieved this year, which I'm sure speak for themselves.
EBITDA reached €5.8 billion, comfortably above the upper end of our guidance, while net ordinary income reached €2.3 billion, exceeding target and representing an 18% increase year on year. Economic and financial performance was particularly strong, underpinned by robust cash generation and disciplined execution.
We remain fully engaged to our capital allocation strategy, successfully delivering on the main strategic priorities set last year, as we will discuss later. This solid performance reflects our ability to deliver on our commitments and our continued focus on value creation for shareholder.
Accordingly, we will propose a dividend of €1.58 per share at the next Annual General Meeting, well above our target set and 20% higher year on year. On slide number 5, we would like to highlight the steady progress made in executing our capital allocation roadmap throughout 2025.
Several transactions were successfully completed during the year, strengthening both our asset base and our commercial capabilities. In February 2025, we closed the acquisition of 60 600 MW of hydro assets, while in July, we completed the acquisition of the remaining stake in Cetasa, fully consolidating its wind asset portfolio.
Together with the entry of a partner into our solar asset portfolio, these transactions illustrate how we are reducing the risk profile of our generation assets. Finally, the alliance with MasOrange, fully consolidated since February the 9th, 2026, enhanced our commercial offering through telecommunications solution, reinforcing our commercial strategy and strengthening customer loyalty.
Slide number 6 provides an overview of the progress made on capital allocation and execution of our key industrial KPIs. Over the period, we invested €3.2 billion, more than 50% above versus previous year's figure, 77% being allocated to grid and renewable asset.
This strong effort led to an improvement in the Interruption Time Index, while total losses remained broadly stable, largely impacted by non-manageable losses. In renewable, the integration of approximately 1.2 GW of new capacity enabled us to reach 80% emission-free installed capacity.
Finally, in the customer segment, we progressed on a strategic shift towards higher-value customers, reshaping our customer mix with a clear focus on long-term loyalty and value creation. This strong operating performance turns into outstanding value creation for our shareholders, and I am now on slide number 7.
Nothing better illustrate the success of our long-term vision and the resilience of our business model than the consistent returns delivered to our shareholders. Over the 2040 to 2025 period, Endesa has clearly outperformed the main benchmark indexes, underscoring the strength and credibility of our value proposition.
As mentioned earlier, we will propose a dividend of €1.58 per share, excluding treasury stock outstanding as of the 31st of December 2025, with would imply a dividend yield of more than 5%. Finally, our €2 billion share buyback program is currently around 30% executed, as we remain fully committed to completing this within the planned timeframe.
In fact, a new tranche of €0.5 billion has been approved and will be completed up to July 2026. Now I will hand over to Marco, who will go into the financial results in more detail.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Pepe, and good morning, everybody. This year's strong results were achieved in a market context characterized by demand growing for the second consecutive year, increasing 2.9% year on year and 2.0% on an adjusted basis.
In Endesa distribution area, where adjusted demand is growing by 2.8%, consumption increased across all customer segments. This reflects not only Spain's economic recovery during the year, but also a rebound in industrial and services demand as part of a broader sector-wide increase in energy usage.
This clearly marks a turning point in the trend. The sharp rise in connection requests seen in recent years is now starting to materialize, representing a unique opportunity to re-industrialize the economy and to electrify the demand.
Turning now to the price scenario, I'm on slide 10. Although the average pool price has remained broadly unchanged year on year, the intraday volatility has been extremely high, ranging from €145 per MWh in the midwinter to zero or even negative prices in spring, coinciding with strong renewables resources and low demand.
This level of volatility has become a structural feature of a system with very high renewable penetration. Spain continues to display some of the most competitive power prices in Europe.
That said, it is important to note that the final energy prices were affected by post-blackout measures adopted by the TSO, which led to a significant increase in ancillary services costs. Let me now focus on the main drivers behind our financial performance.
As mentioned earlier, EBITDA reached almost €5.8 billion, I'm now on slide 11, up 9% year on year. This strong performance was supported by, first, generation and supply EBITDA increased by 11%, driven by in conventional generation, a strong gas management margin, reflecting the positive impact of hedges executed in previous years, partially offset by lower opportunities on the short position.
In renewables, EBITDA was slightly lower, reflecting lower volumes and prices both in wind and solar, while the hydro margin increased, driven by higher volumes and the shape effect. Supply delivered sound results across both businesses, gas and power, with power performing well despite higher ancillary services costs.
Turning to networks, EBITDA increased by €0.1 billion, primarily explained by previous years' resettlements. If we go to page 12 now, all these dynamics are reflected in our integrated power and gas unitary margins.
The free power margin stood at €52 per MWh, representing a decrease of only 5% year on year, despite the increase in ancillary services costs, which weighed on results. On the other hand, gas margin reached €9 per MWh, a strong improvement driven by the factors mentioned above.
Moving now to slide 13, net ordinary income came in at €2.3 billion, significantly above the upper end of the guidance, reflecting strong operational performance and improving the net ordinary income to EBITDA conversion ratio to 41%. D&A increased by 9%, mainly reflecting higher amortization linked to increased investment level.
Financial results almost flat, and the effective tax rate stood at around 23.5%, no longer affected by the temporary levy that impacted last year's results. Turning to the next slide, page 14 now, we delivered strong cash generation, with FFO reaching an outstanding €4.1 billion and a cash conversion ratio of 70% FFO on EBITDA, already above the level targeted for 2027.
On slide 15 now, the sound cash flow generated by the operation more than covered total investments, including €1 billion of inorganic investments. Over the period, net financial debt increased by €0.8 billion up to €10.1 billion, reflecting dividend payments amounting to €1.5 billion, as well as the execution of the share buyback program that resulted in a cash outflow of around €500 million.
Gross financial debt remained almost flat, with the average cost declining to 3.3%. With this, I will now hand over to Pepe to present the strategic plan for the next 3 years.
José Bogas
Okay. Thank you, Marco.
As we move from the review of our full-year results to the outlook for the coming years, it is important to start by looking at the broader energy market context in which our strategic plan 2026 to 2028 will unfold. Spain still demonstrate a very high dependence on oil and gas, and this will not decline unless we accelerate the electrification of final demand.
Electrification is not only essential to cut emission and reduce energy dependence, but also a key opportunity to re-industrialize the country thanks to competitive renewable resources. In the medium term, electricity demand grows towards level close to the PNIEC for conventional uses, but renewable hydrogen demand is significantly delayed due to the systematic halt of projects.
As a result, energy dependence will remain around 60% in 2030 and electrification near 31%, both below target. Demand growth by 2030 is driven by GDP-linked inertia, the electrification of industry, transport, and buildings, although compensated by efficiency gains.
Data centers will represent less than 5% of total demand. In the longer term, in order to meet the European Union's 2040 goals, conventional demand should grow by around 3% per year, driving electrification to almost 50%.
On top of that, hydrogen could add 120 TWh of new demand. The development of this promising scenario necessarily requires significant investment in new infrastructure, the streamlining of project approval processes, and above all, a stable regulatory and attractive framework.
As shown on slide 18, as of the 31st January 2026, the Spanish distribution network is close to its capacity limit, with a saturation level of 88%. The situation is even more critical at Endesa, where around 94% of network nodes already saturated and unable to accommodate new demand.
With this framework, we have been able to grant only 18% of total demand connection requests received. To provide some context for these figures, the 26 GW connection requests received along the year is well above peak demand of our entire national distribution network.
Grid constraints are delaying or cancelling investment, its saturation being a major barrier for economic growth, industrial electrification, and the achievement of Spain's decarbonization target. In this context, boosting investment in distribution network is essential to ensure that the country does not miss a strategic opportunity for sustainable economic growth.
The ministry is fully aware of the severity of the situation, and the forthcoming royal decree aimed at increasing investment limit is expected to provide additional headroom and improve the framework for accelerating the grid reinforcement. Spain faces growing security of supply challenges.
Wind and storage deployed capacity is significantly behind PNIEC targets, creating stress during period of low renewable output. Solar is expanding rapidly, potentially above the PNIEC, but without sufficient storage, it cannot replace firm dispatchable capacity.
This leads to seasonal curtailments and winter deficits, triggering higher gas-fired generation. Nuclear plays a critical role in ensuring security of supply.
We believe that extending plant lifetimes strengthens system stability by providing inertia and voltage control, reducing CO2 emissions, and lowering wholesale prices by at least €10 per MWh. With the removal of specific taxes, nuclear's full cost would fall below the cost of replacing its production with a mix of solar, batteries, and CCGTs, which could be roughly twice as high.
To guarantee long-term reliability, Spain must secure firm capacity, accelerate storage, adapt the nuclear closure schedule to real PNIEC progress, and maintain combined cycles as essential backup for future renewables. Moving now to our 2026-2028 strategic plan, let's now break down how this energy landscape shapes the key highlights of our strategy for the next year, and I am now on slide number 21.
We now present a clear and balanced approach focused on growth, risk-return discipline, and financial strength. First, we will deploy €10.6 billion investment plan over the period, with more than 50% allocated to network, reinforcing our commitment to support electrification and reinforce grid resilience.
The plan also includes selected investment in value-accretive renewable projects. Second, our resilient, low-risk asset portfolio will deliver predictable growth, providing a strong visibility on future performance, with around 85% of EBITDA regulated or contracted.
Third, our financial strength enable us to deliver sustained profitable growth. EPS is set to grow at a steady 5% year on year on average, driven by higher investment business growth and the ongoing effort to improve productivity and efficiency.
Turning now to slide 22, let me walk you through the investment profile of our new plan. We plan to invest €10.6 billion, 10% more than the old plan, with a clear strategic focus on networks and selective renewable projects, key enablers of the energy transition, which together will account for around 80% of the total.
Investment in grid will increase by around 40%, reaching €5.5 billion. This increase assumes the approval of the royal decree that would allow capex above the current regulatory cap, as well as the full recognition of the investment deployed.
This level of investment is essential to accommodate new demand connections, support electrification, and reinforce network resilience. In renewables, the plan involves €3 billion of investment, focused on selective project positioned to capitalize on rising demand.
Finally, in non-mainland, in addition to maintenance investment, only those related to the outcome of the capacity auction have been considered in order to extend the useful life of our power plants. On slide 25, focusing on grid investment, 52% of the investment in this plan will be deployed on networks.
This plan marks a significant step forward in the share of investment contributing to RAB growth, plus 60% versus previous plan. Indeed, out of the €5.5 billion capex, around 80% will flow into the RAB.
As a result, our RAB will increase 13% by 2028. Worth highlight is that around 70% of the total capex plan, or around €900 million, will be accounted as RAB and will contribute to EBITDA growth beyond 2028.
Operational performance, we continue to improve with lower TIEPI and reduced technical losses. Moving to slide 26, during the timeframe of the plan, we are allocating around €3 billion of investment, 80% devoted to asset development.
Investment are 20% down compared to last year due to the more selective approach and to the fact that some specific projects had been rescheduled, extending their completion date. We are working to bring into operation 1.9 GW of renewable capacity by 2028, mainly wind and batteries.
This will allow us to achieve 25 TWh output. Batteries and storage project will play a key role, enable us to optimize production and stabilize renewable output while ensuring power availability throughout the day.
These projects will deliver attractive returns, with an IRR versus WACC spread to around 300 basis points, with 21% of the capex contributing beyond 2028. Moving to next slide, on slide number 27, I would like to comment on our site portfolio to develop a hybrid platform that offer optimal conditions for data centers.
These projects combine existing grid connection rights, transferable land for fast deployment, and the ability to provide full supply solutions based on renewable and grid access. Within this plan, we are also progressing selectively on some singular projects such as Aspego, which is scheduled to be in construction in 2027 and will incorporate 600 MW of new hybrid renewable capacity: wind, solar, and batteries, with an estimated investment of €600 million.
Its hybrid configuration enables an energy profile close to baseload, making it highly suitable for large-scale customers such as data centers. Endesa is well-positioned to capture emerging business opportunities in the data center segment.
When it comes to customer business drivers, I am on slide number 26, we will strengthen our position through loyalty, commercial alliance, and better value management. On the one hand, we will expand our physical store network, improving face-to-face services, especially relevant after the approval of the regulation restricting spam calls and phone contracting that will help to reduce fraud in the short term while improving more than 10% churn rate in the medium term.
On the other hand, new alliances, such as the consolidation of MasOrange from 2026, broadens our blended offer portfolio and reinforce loyalty programs. As a result of all these initiatives, our customer base is set to grow from 6.2 to 6.7 million free power clients by 2028, while total power sales remain stable.
Finally, it should be noted that the launch of an efficiency plan to improve our competitiveness in the current market environment. Looking at our second strategic highlight on slide number 27, one of the key asset we intend to foster is the high visibility and low risk of our earnings profile.
Over the period, we expect to deliver around €18 billion of cumulative EBITDA, around 85% stemming from regulated or contracted activities, providing clear visibility on future delivery. Grid, which are almost fully regulated, and a large part of our generation portfolio, including non-mainland generation and regulated renewables, also benefit from remuneration schemes.
Finally, a relevant share of electricity generation is already locked in through long-term contracts and PPAs, as well as by our fixed-price customer portfolio, which benefits from a strong inertia, given us substantial visibility and predictability over a 3-year plan period. Now let me hand over to Marco, who will explain the main financial targets of this new plan.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Pepe. I would like to introduce the third strategic highlight.
We go now to page 30. Financial strength, by showing a slide that clearly illustrates the resilience of our business.
Our 2025 results already exceeded the target set under the previous 2025-2027 plan, highlighting the strength, the consistency, and the quality of our performance. 2025 net ordinary income reached €2.3 billion, 21% above the original guidance.
Moreover, when compared with the former 2027 guidance in the old plan, it already represents an outperformance of approximately €0.2 billion. Importantly, this strong performance is reflected by a sound 41% of EBITDA to net ordinary income conversion ratio.
On slide 31 now, overall, these results reinforce our confidence in the business outlook, and they are a good starting point for the growth plan for the coming 3 years. EBITDA is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of around 4%, together with an improvement in cash conversion, with the FFO to EBITDA ratio increasing to 78%.
Net ordinary income is also expected to grow at a similar pace at approximately 4% per year, reaching a range of €2.5-€2.6 billion by 2028. Profitability will remain stable, with the net ordinary income to EBITDA ratio broadly maintained at around 40%.
Turning to capital structure, net debt is expected to increase to a range of €14-€15 billion by the end of the plan period. With this overview in mind, let me now take you through the evolution of our main business lines on slide 32.
EBITDA is expected to increase by around 10% over the plan, reaching a range of €6.2-€6.5 billion by 2028. This growth is underpinned by three main drivers, which we will discuss in more detail in the following slides.
First, an improvement in the distribution margin, supported by higher investment levels under the new regulatory framework. Second, the expansion of the generation and supply businesses, where the increase in the integrated power margin more than offsets the expected normalization of the gas margin.
Finally, a reduction in fixed cost, driven by the rollout of a new productivity program, supporting competitiveness in an increasingly challenging environment. We will now take a closer look at each of these drivers in the following slides.
Let me now turn to networks on slide 33. Networks EBITDA is expected to increase by a solid 10% over the plan period, reaching €2.3 billion in 2028.
This growth is primarily driven by the strong expansion of the regulated asset base, which is expected to increase by around €1.5 billion over the plan period. A second key driver is the entry into force of the new regulatory framework for the 2026-2031 period.
Taken together, these factors will support an increase in regulated remuneration over the plan horizon. Turning now to slide 34, let me provide you with a more detailed view on the evolution of the free power and gas margin over the plan period.
Starting with the power business, sales to liberalized customers will remain broadly stable, with an increase in free fixed-price sales, representing around 80% of the total free sales. These volumes are increasingly covered by inframarginal technologies due to the higher renewable output, leading to structurally lower sourcing cost.
By 2028, the free power unitary margin will increase, driven by, first, a strong improvement in the supply margin, mainly explained by the recovery of extraordinary ancillary services costs incurred after the 2025 blackout, by the resilience of fixed-price customer portfolio, and by the reduction of sourcing costs. Second, positive generation margin on higher renewable volumes, that more than compensate the impact of a lower price scenario.
Finally, a slight improvement from the short position management. Moving to the gas business, total sales will decline by around 33%, reflecting the expiry of the Qatar and the Nigeria gas contracts.
Gas margin will normalize over the plan period, essentially due to retail gas margin remainly broadly stable, and in contrast, other gas margin normalizing from the exceptional high levels recorded in 2025. Turning now to slide 35, productivity has always been at the core of our strategy, but over the next 3 years, it will be even more critical to maintaining competitiveness in an increasingly challenging market environment.
Over the plan period, fixed costs are expected to decline by 10%. This improvement is driven by a strict and well-defined efficiency program to be deployed throughout the period.
A key enabler of this program is the broad deployment of digitalization and progressive implementation of AI-based solution across the company. These initiatives support more intelligent and real-time grid operations, higher efficiency and reliability in generation, more personalized customer interactions, and productivity improvements across selected corporate and support functions.
Together, they allow us to structurally improve our cost base while enhancing operational performance. Efficiency measures will be primarily concentrated in the liberalized businesses, where there is greater flexibility to capture value.
Actions include organizational streamlining, process re-engineering, increased insourcing of critical activities, and a recalibration of services provided by external suppliers. In summary, disciplined cost control combined with AI-driven efficiencies enable us to protect margins, improve competitiveness, and sustain performance over the long term.
Turning to slide 38 now sorry, 36 now, looking at the net ordinary income, we expect a solid and sustained growth trajectory over the period, with a compound average growth rate of approximately 4%, reaching a range of €2.5-€2.6 billion by 2028. EBITDA to net ordinary income ratio will remain at around 40% throughout the plan.
The updated plan represent a clear improvement in earnings per share growth. EPS is now projected to growth at around 5% per year on average, a meaningful acceleration compared with the previous plan, where we envisaged a 3%.
This acceleration is driven by a combination of higher underlying earnings and the positive impact of capital allocation actions, including the execution of the share buyback program, which further enhances per-share value for shareholders. On slide 37 now, we will maintain a solid financial position, leveraging on strong cash generation and financial flexibility to fund growth while delivering sustainable shareholder remuneration.
Over the course of the plan, net financial debt is expected to increase by approximately €4-€5 billion. This evolution is fully explained by the balance between robust cash flow generation and a significant step-up in capital allocation.
On the sources of funds, we will generate close to €14 billion of funds from operation over the period. This reflects the strength and resilience of our underlying cash generation, supported by EBITDA growth and solid cash conversion, with the FFO to EBITDA ratio expected to reach a sound 78%.
The total cash outflows will amount to around €18 billion. Cash investments are projected at approximately €11 billion, and shareholder remuneration remains a key priority, with dividend payments totally around €5 billion over the period, complemented by €1.5 billion related to the completion of the remaining share buyback program.
Consequently, net debt to EBITDA is expected to move from the current level of around 1.8 times, reaching 2.3 times by the end of the plan period. Now I will hand over to Pepe for the closing remarks.
José Bogas
Thank you, Marco. On slide number 39, we are confident that our strategy will generate visible and predictable returns, which is why we are updating our dividend policy.
Based on current net ordinary income targets and the expected execution of the share buyback program, dividend per share is projected to grow at an average rate of approximately 4% over the period. This increase takes as its starting point an extraordinary 2025 DPS of €1.58 per share.
For the plan period, we improve the dividend policy by guaranteeing a minimum payment of 70% on net ordinary income, further reinforced by the implementation of the remaining share buyback program by December 2027. Overall, we believe this represents a clear, sustainable, and attractive remuneration policy, providing a high degree of visibility to our shareholders.
Turning to slide number 40, in summary, Endesa is well-positioned to capture demand growth opportunities beyond the horizon of the plan. This is why it is important to extend our perspective to 2030 for the business most directly linked to the energy transition.
New demand will naturally transform into additional generation needs and further network strengthening requirements that will also put upward pressure on energy prices. Starting with renewables, the completion of the capex currently under construction, together with the additional capacity required to serve incremental demand, will allow installed capacity to reach around 15 GW by 2030.
At the same time, our regulated asset base is expected to continue expanding steadily, in line with the significant investment needs required by the Spanish electricity system over the coming years. RAB is projected to grow to around €15 billion by 2030, implying a compound average growth of approximately 5%.
This evolution reinforces the visibility and stability of our earnings profile and underlines Endesa's long-term commitment to supporting the country's electrification and decarbonization objectives. This turns directly into stronger financial performance.
Earnings per share are expected to increase from €2.3 per share in 2025 to a range of €2.8 to €3 per share by 2030, also implying an average yearly growth of around 5%. On slide number 41, despite the increase in leverage envisaged in the business plan, Endesa preserves substantial financial flexibility.
Our strong balance sheet provides capacity to move closer to the sector average leverage of around 3 times, without compromising capital discipline. These additional resources could be selectively allocated across several strategic priorities: extracting maximum value from the hybrid project hub, capitalizing on growing demand, assessing selective M&A opportunities fully aligned with our long-term strategic framework and strict value creation criteria, accelerating the deployment of storage, leveraging on the increasing need for system flexibility.
All of these opportunities would support additional growth, reinforcing the upward trend in EPS. Moreover, the possibility of enhancing shareholder remuneration policy is an optionality.
Turning to environmental sustainability on slide number 42, this slide outlines Endesa's clear and credible decarbonization pathway. By 2030, Endesa's emission trajectory is fully aligned with a 1.5° pathway, reinforcing the credibility of our long-term ambition.
Looking further ahead, our objective is to reach close to zero emission by 2040. In the short term, our focus remains on reducing direct greenhouse gas emissions in the mainland system.
By 2028, this translate into a further step-down in emissions, supported by the continued decarbonization of the generation mix and the increasing weight of low-carbon technologies. This decarbonization roadmap is underpinned by a balanced approach that combines environmental ambition with system reliability and social responsibility.
To conclude this presentation, let me turn to slide 43 and share a few closing remark. Our growth ambition is firmly anchored in highly predictable, low-risk activities, with a clear focus on business and project that offer long-term visibility, stable cash flows, and resilient returns.
Efficiency is central pillar of our strategy and a key lever to enhance performance and competitiveness. At the same time, we benefit from strong financial flexibility, which provide meaningful optionality for growth and value creation.
Finally, all these strategic drivers converge on a single, clear objective: delivering solid and attractive remuneration for our shareholders. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our 2025 financial results and 2026 to 2028 strategic update presentation.
Thank you very much for your attention, and we are ready to take questions.
Operator
The telephone Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad.
If you change your mind, please press star five again on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your phone is not muted.
Mar Martinez
We start now with the questions from our analyst, and the first one is Peter Bisztyga from Bank of America. Please, Peter, go ahead.
Peter Bisztyga
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
I guess kind of my main question is to try and understand what has really changed versus your prior plan that drives a basically €600 mega- sorry, €600 million EBITDA improvement in your new 2028 guidance versus your previous 2027 guidance. If I look at your bridge on networks, EBITDA there is only €100 million higher than in your previous plan.
I think you're targeting I think only 600 MW more power generating capacity than the previous plan, there must be a huge increase in your customer profitability, in your retail business. Can you kind of confirm that that's really where the biggest delta here is versus your kind of previous expectations?
It would be useful actually if you could give euro per megawatt-hour guidance on your sort of free power margin, gas margin, and retail margin in 2028. You used to give that, but don't seem to in this presentation deck.
You also actually don't guide specifically to EBITDA in renewables and customers, and I'm just wondering why that is. Then, sorry, final part to that very long question is how much EBITDA benefit do you assume in 2028 from the capacity market and also from the Almaraz extension, please?
Thank you very much.
Marco Palermo
Good morning, Peter. Let's go through the questions, basically.
So 2028, let me help you to bridge it with 2025. Basically, you have on distribution, as you were correctly noticing, we had just the 2025 because there were €100 million of extraordinary.
If you look at with the adjusted 2025, it's a 15% increase. If you look at with the unadjusted, it's 10%.
Basically there is an improvement of €300 million. It could be even more because if you look, it's not everything optimized.
If you look at charts, for example, 23, you can see that the capex generating margin beyond the plan, we put it at 17%. Basically there is another billion that is not in RAB at the end of the plan.
Because of course it takes time just to build all the networks. There could be even more eventually.
That is on the distribution, €300 million on distribution that if you count the results of 2025 is €200. Then you have another part that is on the margin, on the free power margin, that is the recovery of the ancillary services that we suffer in 2025.
We always said it was north of €200 million, slightly more than €200 million, and we plan in 3 years' time just to have all the time just to recover that. Then you have another part that is related to the higher production of inframarginal.
That is the combined of two. On one side, we are of course doing a lot of repowering, both in hydro and wind, this somehow boosts also the production.
We are also building new capacity, and therefore you have a positive effect because on one side, you have lower prices, but on the other side, you had another 8 TWh of production, so that net net will bring you approximately €300 million. Then you have another €200 million of savings on opex.
This is on the positive side. On the negative side, we will adjust the high marginality that we have enjoyed in 2025 on the gas, and that adjustment would count probably around €400 million.
Net in that, that's where you find basically this €600 million of difference. This is on question number one.
On question number two, just going a bit quicker, the free power margin that we are envisaging for the 2028, it's between €55 and €60 per MWh, that basically is like taking the reference of 2025, the 52 that were impacted by the ancillary services cost, and bringing back these services there. Of course, as is more complex because you have power prices lowering down, but also the sourcing cost is going down, and that's why you basically keep that marginality.
On capacity, I would tell you that probably that is an upside of our business plan because basically there is not much of capacity there because we do not have visibility yet on what will be the market there, and we do not have visibility yet on what will be the plans that will benefit and that will win the pay-as-bid there. We will basically see what will come out.
Thank you.
Mar Martinez
Thank you, Peter. Next question comes from Pedro Alves from CaixaBank.
Pedro Alves
Hi, good morning. Congrats for the results and the presentation of targets.
The first question, please, would be on the sensitivity of your 2028 targets to pool prices in Iberia and the TTF price as well for your gas margins. Second question on data centers.
You mentioned ongoing discussions with data centers, the question is if you think that you could realistically announce something this year. The third question on the capex envelope of the €10.6 billion, if you can provide us how much is roughly growth versus maintenance capex.
Thank you.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Pedro. On question number one, sensitivity on power and gas.
On the power side, I guess that is probably an other feature of this plan. In this plan, we are not incorporating a strong increase of demand.
What we are seeing, just to give you an idea, is for this year, 2026, an increase of 1.2%, that frankly is lower than last year, and then in the following years, we are approximately at 2.4%. Basically, it's not because we believe that this will be the increase in the demand, but it's because we really don't know where to place the real ramp-up.
We feel that probably it is starting. Of course, when we started the plan, we had no this feeling, but, there it depends on what will happen on the demand.
On the demand side, I feel that we were kind of conservative. On prices, as you have seen, we adopted the forward that were at that time, basically in 2027 going to €58 per MWh.
There I guess that there is kind of balance between the two. On gas, in reality, on gas in our plan, all the profitability and all the marginality will basically come from the retail business at the end of the plan.
Basically, we are assuming that, as I said in the speech, then from the other gas, there is not coming much of marginality, frankly. Regarding data centers, are we planning to announce something soon?
I guess that definitely we are planning to do something in the course of the year, of this 2026. We have some of the development that are more advanced.
We decided just to put one of the references of something that is very well-known, that is the PEGA project in the presentation, and there we signed agreement. The positive part, I guess, of the plan is that in the plan, there is not the upside of the data center.
Why do I say so? Because as I said, in the demand increase, we're not assuming the data centers really kicking in, first.
Second, in the plan, we're not assuming any particular PPA, basically, and higher and higher price PPA. Third, we're not assuming any upside or any extra margin related to the sale of the land or the access to the grid connection.
Why is it so? Because we want to see exactly what are the numbers that we will somehow see when we sign the agreements.
On the third question regarding how much is growth and how much is maintenance, I would say that basically the maintenance capex is approximately 30 30% of the total, with the rest of course being incremental capex, growth capex. Thank you, Pedro.
Mar Martinez
We have missed a last question from Pedro, if you allow me, the sensitivity to €1 of increase of power prices, it translates around €20 million, okay? Thank you, Pedro.
Now we have Javier Garrido from JPMorgan.
Pedro Alves
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
First question would be on the supply business. I was wondering whether you can be a bit more specific about the supply margin in '25, and particularly, you could also elaborate a bit more on how you plan to take control of customer losses, given that the pace of reduction has slowed down, but you are still losing customers, and how do you plan to make that an increase in customers even if we exclude the MasOrange acquisition?
The second question would be on the dividend policy. You could clarify a bit more the dividend policy, and am I right in understanding that the new dividend policy is at least 70% payout ratio so that it results in at least 4% DPS CAGR, or is there any different interpretation?
The third question is on the cash conversion of EBITDA. It increases significantly from 70% to 78 78% through the plan.
Would you mind to please elaborate on why that increase? What is exactly driving the improved cash conversion?
Thank you.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Javier. Sorry to Pedro before for losing the last part of your question.
Javier, basically on supply on 2025, as you have seen, the free power margin was 52, lower than the previous year, and it was a mixed effect. It was lower than in 2024, but not so much lower when compared to what has been the impact of the ancillary services.
Somehow, there, I guess that in 2025, you can see the good performance of the business. You're right.
We have suffered last year of many losses of clients. Again, there are kind of two markets, I would say, there.
There is a market that is healthy, that is of long-term clients that experience a normal churn rate. Then there is another market that experiences very high churn rate and, if you allow me, even a very high level of fraud.
That has been constantly rotating. What we understood at a certain point was that we were basically losing money on that because we were putting money just to acquire them, and putting more money, and then losing, the permanence of those clients was very short.
There was no time just to get back the investment, it simply made no sense. We preferred to go for something different.
We accepted losing part of the clients, and we went for the acquisition of MasOrange, that was basically not because we acquired the clients, but because we were now able to serve bundled products. Apparently it is working because of course at the end of last year, we were reducing a lot the losses, and we cannot comment on this year, but I guess the situation is somehow also the acquisition of MasOrange is proving that probably we have seen it correctly.
When you go to the dividend policy, yes, you're right. It's the correct understanding.
Basically, at least our payout will be 70%, and at least this 70% converts in at least 4% of CAGR on the DPS. Then on the cash conversion, I guess that of course it's a kind of a challenging target that we're giving to us.
Basically we're doing a lot of job on every business just to improve the cash profile of each one of those. We think that all this effort that actually we started in the previous years can somehow come to give all the fruits at the end of our business plan.
Thank you.
Mar Martinez
Thank you, Javier. We move now to Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs.
Alberto Gandolfi
Thank you, good morning. I'll ask three questions as well.
Could you please elaborate on your churn rate assumption and how much is it right now and how sustainable are the current levels before the new entrants start to lose money? Can you maybe elaborate a bit on the dynamics that you embedded in the plan on this?
Secondly, there is a very exhaustive slide on cost savings, on the reduction in the fixed costs. I think you have four buckets, like network automation through AI, labor.
Would it be possible to tell us what the biggest buckets are, one or two perhaps, how much of this is natural attrition, people that are retiring or being pre-retired, and then you hire someone coding on CoPilot or Claude that replaces five people. How structural is this?
Can we assume that this €300 million reduction will carry on beyond '28 and for several years to come? The third question, you still have ample balance sheet headroom, if you were to think about how to utilize it in the medium term, beyond '28, is there any way you could rank in terms of priorities either what you favor or what is possible?
Would that be more organic growth in power grids, would it be external growth in clients or power gen, would it be more share buyback? Thank you.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Alberto. Regarding the first one on churn, I would say that there, what we are experiencing right now, it's an elevated churn that is in the range of, I would say, 25-30%, okay?
It's very high churn. As I was saying, it's very very somehow concentrated on some of the clients.
Now are we seeing this somehow going to normal level during the plan? No.
We are still assuming that at the end of the plan, the churn will remain very high, not at a normal rate, but yes, a bit decreasing. We're assuming this because we think that at least the frauds and all the part of that that is somehow impacting strongly on the churn should somehow be reduced.
Has been recently approved a royal decree on that, trying to get rid at least that part, and we really hope that that will be somehow effective in reducing at least that. On the other side, all the measures that we are somehow putting in the plan and that we are delivering, we started doing this last year in terms of, for example, physical points and that of course attract the clients and then they have a lower churn, but also all the changes that we made, the bundled products, there are many many things because there is not one specific stuff that stops the churns.
All this kind of stuff we really think that will kick in. Again, very high churn in 2025.
We still assume that at the end of the plan we will be still high, but lower than this because of the reduction of the things that we're doing and also hopefully the reduction in the fraud level. Regarding the second question, cost reduction, this is not making me very popular here, but here there are many things.
Is this structural? Of course, it is structural.
We started this last year because it takes time just to have a structural contention of costs and productivity. There are a lot of measures there.
Some of those will reduce costs, some others will improve the quality and not necessarily reducing costs, but so there are a bundle of things. When it comes to whether this somehow touches also the personnel, this is kind of still sensitive.
What I can tell you is that this is not the first time that we do this. I guess that in history, this company has been used to make this structural changes, for example, when the call was closed or when we decided to move to the cloud and blah blah blah.
In all these moments, the company has been capable of treating this properly and of course doing it in the proper way with the support of all the employees. On the third point regarding the ample balance sheet that we keep, yes, it is true, we still keep it.
We think it's actually a plus, it's a benefit. Why so?
Because we think that there could be opportunity. The opportunity could come from the fact, for example, that if you look at the plan, there is yes an increase on the capex in distribution, but there is a decrease on the renewables vis-a-vis the old plan, that it's not something that explaining it in itself.
What we think is that we have a lot of things there ready to go. We need to assess exactly when the demand will start to kick in just to somehow eventually go even more with investment there.
Priorities, I guess that some of the things we can do ourselves. I guess that there could be things available in the near future.
Of course, on all this, we do not comment, but in terms of our priority, I guess that it's very clear where we've been putting money along the last couple of years. I would go to that.
Will there be space eventually also for shareholder remuneration improvement? Of course.
We will somehow balance. We have ample room there, and we will somehow balance.
Thank you.
Mar Martinez
Thank Alberto. Next question is coming from Manuel Palomo from Exane BNP.
Manuel Palomo
Hello, good morning and thank you very much for the very insightful presentation. I've got three questions if I may.
The first one goes into one of the things that you've mentioned in order to achieve improvement in the integrated margin. First thing, I'd like to know or to get a confirmation that you assume the extension of Almaraz 1 and 2, and in case there's no extension, what could be the impact in terms of terawatt-hours, and if you are assuming, in case that it gets extended, any additional capex related to it?
The second one also related to the production output is, what is the impact you're assuming from hydro normalization after an excellent '25, and looks like a still a very good '26? Lastly, on the generation output, why adding 1.5 GW of wind and solar in Spain, given the level of curtailments that we're seeing?
Do you really need it, or wouldn't it be enough just to go into the wholesale market and purchasing the electricity? Second question is on the other side of the integrated margin, is on clients.
You're assuming 500,000 additional clients, if I'm correct. I understand that you have already purchased MasOrange, but my question is are you expecting to see a decline in the final achieved price to customers?
Could you give us a reference? Lastly, it is about the regulated business.
If I'm correct, you're roughly assuming a €1.8 billion per year capex. Is this granted, or will you need any additional authorization from the Spanish government/regulator?
Thank you very much.
Marco Palermo
Okay. Manuel, let me go through.
I guess that let's see if I get all of those. On free power margin, actually, you were asking on Almaraz.
Someone else, I guess that I forgot this before on the Almaraz extension. Yes, we are putting in the plan, that there will be an extension of Almaraz.
Almaraz for us in the plan is basically one group in 2028 and means approximately 3 TWh of increase in production. There, I would say that there is a positive that is that you have 3 TWh more that you sell, but there is also a negative because of course the nuclear allowed the system just to keep a lower power price.
That's why it is so important for Spain to keep it. Therefore, if you take it off, you have an effect on the prices there.
The mix of the two is positive for us because we are talking about the 3 TWh, but the combined effect is less than €100 million. On hydro, yes, on hydro what we are seeing, it's of public dominance.
The hydro production in 2026 actually, apparently, it's better than in 2025. We had a very good start in 2025, then not a very good ending of the year in 2025.
Apparently, looks like it's better in this year. On generation output, when you see solar, wind, and so on, in reality, they are concrete projects and those are related to, as I said, data centers.
Can we buy this on the market? Yes, but those project are the ones that have closer a data center.
In that case, we'd rather prefer there is more marginality if you develop the project and you serve the data centers instead of trying to buy energy on the market. On clients, the 500,000 more, yes.
Basically, we are at the target right now. If you look it from that perspective with MasOrange, it means that we have to try to defend this till 2028.
Do we see a decline in price? Of course, with the decline in price of the market, slower, of course, but you see a decline in pricing on the customer, but you do also see a decline in the cost of sourcing.
That's why you maintain the marginality. It is true that then the prices on the market takes a bit of time just to reflect.
It is true that when the price is on the spot goes down, they do not immediately reflect on the B2C or on the SME and blah blah blah, but also the opposite is true. When they increase, they do not immediately reflect on the final market.
Regarding the level of investment, what is still missing is what the government announced, that basically was a decree just to allow till 2030 an increase of the cap that currently is 0.13% of the internal product for up to 63%, basically 60% more. That is what has been announced by the government at the end of 2025, and we are expecting this decree to come.
I hope that I got all your question.
José Bogas
Thanks. Let me get some color about the nuclear and perhaps about the distribution.
Why we have decided just to extend or to delay the close of Almaraz in our plan. You should take into account that the timetable for closing nuclear plants was set in 1918, and since then, the context and priorities has changed substantially.
The second thing is all countries are addressing extension, a new power station even. On top of that, for us, there are technical, environmental, and economic reason for delaying its closure.
Technical reason, let me say, on the one hand, it makes no sense for a group belonging to the same plan closing in different years. That is, and that it was expected the close of Almaraz 1 in the year 2027 and 2 in the year 2028.
The second thing is that the interim storage facility, the so-called ATI, will not be completed until 2030 at the earliest, and nuclear waste cannot be managed until then. It has sense just to delay a little.
On the other hand, there is a significant delay in the deployment of storage and wind power also. The system requires synchronous generation to manage both frequency and voltage, and the energy balance up to 2030 would be more balanced and secure and with less energy dependence if we continue with these power plants.
With regard to the environmental reason, the closure of the nuclear power plants would not lead to slower growth in renewables, but rather to an increase in combined cycle production and, consequently, in emission. The economic reason, Marco has said, maintaining nuclear power generation reduce the cost of electricity market.
All in all, we have asked to the ministry just to delay the shutdown of Almaraz, and we are confident that it could be done. With regard to the networks, let me say that increasing investment in Spanish network remains essential for the integration of renewable, for the electrification of demand, and for ensuring system stability.
As the grid has virtually no remaining capacity to accommodate rising demand. In any case, this increase in demand is going to be a very good thing for the renewables, especially for the solar power plants, and it would be a good thing for the economy of the country.
At the end, we have decided that it's going to be a good thing for all, for the government, for the country, and for us, so that's the reason why we have decided. Let me say that we assume that the Spanish government, as already anticipated, will rise the regulatory investment limit.
The ministry projects a significant increase in investment in networks between 2026 and 2030, totaling 11.3, if I am right, billion euros: 3.6 coming from transmission and €7.7 billion for distribution, an exceptional, as Marco has said, 62% increase in the investment limits in order to adapt them to the new context of the energy transmission. This 7.7 €7.7 billion increase in distribution investment limit is something around €1.5 billion per year, turns into a cap rising from the current €2.1 billion to something around 3.
3.6. This could imply something around €600 million in additional net investment for Endesa on top of the €900 million that we have today.
Based on this, we felt confident just to increase the investment in the network in Spain.
Mar Martinez
Thank you. Next analyst is Javier Suárez from Mediobanca.
Javier Suárez
Thank you, Mar, and good morning all. Three questions on the context, the European context for electricity companies.
The first one is on the debate that maybe the Italian government and the German government have opened up on an effort to reduce overall electricity prices through the eurozone. I'm interested to see your view on the implications that this may have on the pricing setting dynamics through the eurozone and how do you think that that debate is going to evolve.
In this context, if you can share with us the assumption that you are embedding into your business plan regarding carbon prices to 2028. That would be the first question.
The second one is on the data center discussion. Also, it's evident that there is going to be installation of new data centers through Europe and in the Iberian Peninsula as well.
I wanted to ask you your view on the model that should be implemented to avoid unintended consequences because, obviously, there is going to be higher electricity demand and that could impact overall electricity prices as well. Do you think that that may impact the way data centers are going to be installed and what would be the way of isolating those unintended consequences?
The third question is on the slide when you're talking about leverage evolution and financial flexibility. When you're referring to scouting brownfield opportunities, if you can elaborate on how those opportunities should look like.
Are you referring to renewables energies on Iberian Peninsula or are you referring to a broader set of opportunities? Also on the storage plan, how do you see installation of new storage impacting the dynamics for the Spanish electricity sector?
Thank you.
José Bogas
Thank you, Javier. I will try to give some color, and then Marco will go deeply on that.
About the effort to reduce prices, well, first of all, I would like to say that the energy transition, at least in my opinion, is entering a more mature and challenging phase. Clean energy development continues, but delivering a deeply decarbonized, resilient energy system is far more complex than simply adding renewable megawatt.
When we see the technology evolution, hydrogen is the most delayed driver of the PNIEC due to economic reasons. I think that in the PNIEC it was expected something around 50 TWh in the year 2030, and I guess it's going to be less than 10 TWh.
Talking about the storage, PNIEC include plus 15 GW of storage needed by 2030, up to 22.5, if I remember well, and it is clear that we are going to be in a figure lower than 9 GW instead of the 15 GW expected. Why this?
One of the thing is the delay in the development of these technologies. The other thing is the geopolitical tension and macroeconomic pressure, taking into account the COVID pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, the let's say unpredictable trade tariff.
We are living in a market uncertainty, complexity, and commodity price volatility. Energy demand was flat during the last year, but now we are expecting that outpacing improvement in energy efficiency, and also there are movement in all the countries.
At the end, things could change, but in the case of the carbon prices, I think the CO2 price should be and will be one of the main drivers of this transformation. The focus for me is not going to be or not should be the reduction of the price of the CO2.
It should be the electrification and the decarbonization. We should continue adding renewables, and we are obliged just to electrify the demand.
Taking this into account, I think that it has no sense just to look for a reduction in the CO2 price. What I think is that the solution should be just to subsidize some industries, perhaps the very high consumption industries, instead of that.
I think that there is no sense to approve the one decree in Italy and also is not going to be something general in the rest of Europe. What I think is that it's not going to be a don't worry in our plan.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Javier. Question number two related to data center, it's very interesting question, and will take us a very long time to debate on that.
The data centers consumption basically are baseload. What we are proposing and what we are seeing also on the data centers developers and hyperscalers is they are conscious from the fact that of course they will impact the demand.
Therefore, we do see merit in trying to develop for them this integrated bundle of technologies in order to try to replicate a baseload and in order to have the data centers that is close by to his own feeding, to his own supplier somehow. Then of course the grid would be a kind of backup for the peaks or for the moments where exactly this bundle of technologies, all together the wind, the solar, and the battery, are not able to provide the energy.
What we are seeing is that, and we're seeing this in Aragon, this is starting, you are having the development of the data center, but in the close by, you're having also the development of renewables. Actually the data centers they are trying to develop close to big areas of development of renewables in order to have their suppliers in the close by.
Of course, it's not perfect, it's not a perfect baseload, but for the time being, is the best approximation of that. On question number three regarding financial flexibility, I cannot be too specific because of course, I will be generic because I don't want to screw conversation that we're having, but I would say that it's not a secret that we are interested in hydro, and when I mean hydro, it's modulating hydro, but it's also storage hydro.
Actually in the plan, we have expansion of pumping in our plan, we do not see the results in the plan, but yes, we do the capex in the plan, and we are looking for more. We are looking also at storage to develop our own storage, or eventually could be interested in batteries for the time being.
It's not of a secret that we're interested in wind, and I guess that in distribution, we're satisfied with all the investments that we have, but of course, it's also an area. I would say that there is a big list of technologies and of areas where we could be interested.
Again, yes, focused on the Iberian Peninsula. Thank you.
Mar Martinez
We move now to Robert Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley.
Robert Pulleyn
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Congrats on an impressive plan and thanks for all the answers so far. You'll be glad to know I have one question, and that's just to clarify something on the buyback.
You mentioned the second tranche of €500 million is 30% complete, if I heard you correctly. I think you also said and is that going to be completed by mid-July, or is that the third tranche?
Effectively, can we just get a little bit of color on the sequencing of the buyback? Is the second tranche through to July, the third tranche in the second half of this year, and then the fourth tranche will come in 2027, or do I misunderstand this?
Thank you very much.
Marco Palermo
Rob, yes. First tranche was was basically completed, almost completed.
We bought, if I remember correctly, €440 million out of the €500 million, and we are now canceling the shares. The second tranche that we launched, another €500 million, should elapse by the 27th of February.
Out of this, it it's now it's now ongoing. I guess that we bought approximately €120 million, probably, at a price that was a bit higher than €30 per share.
It's it's the one that in any case should elapse from the 27th of by the 27th of February. The third tranche that we just announced will start, will kick in from the 2nd of March till till basically the end of June, and it's another €500 million.
Then what I guess that our idea is to continue with another tranche. We have, at that point, we should have approximately another €900 million to also in the second part of 2026 with with other tranche.
That's like let let's see, but it's it's it's our idea, and we should be finishing in any case by 2027. Thank you.
Mar Martinez
Thank you, Rob. Next question comes from Arturo Murua from Jefferies.
Arturo Murua
Thank you for taking my question. I just have one.
Going back to the decree to increase the network investments, my understanding is that part of this increase will only be remunerated if the demand comes through after a few years. If you could share a bit of more color how this will work and how are you counting this in your numbers?
Marco Palermo
Arturo. Basically, here the point is that generally what we try to do, it's to start an investment in the grid at the beginning of the year and to try to put in operation by the end of the year, so that we can get the RAB on that.
Now sometimes there are particularly if you increase the pace of investments, there are investment that you start at a certain year and that not necessarily are put into operation at the end of the year, there is a kind of ramp-up. When you have this ramp-up, you have at the beginning the negative effect that you are investing and you're always keeping the pace and you're seeing the remuneration from the next year.
Of course, when you finish this ramp-up, you have the benefit that you can still enjoying the ramp-up even though you're not investing. Now we are in the first part, that is ramping up the investment, and so not immediately seeing all the benefits.
That's why we wanted to highlight, because in the plan, I would say that at the end of 2028, we are missing almost a billion of RAB there that of course will come later, but the plan in itself is not optimized. That's what it is.
We cut the plan at the end of 2028, and there were almost €1 billion of investment that were done, but not yet in operation, not yet in RAB. That of course you find out the next year.
That's why we wanted also to give you a flavor of what could be 2030, because this is something that is embedded in the plan in all the businesses. In distribution, you will see the benefit also in the year to come.
The same in the generation, because also in the generation, we have some of the projects, I was mentioning, for example, the pumping, we were putting the money and we were not seeing yet the EBITDA. There are things that you only see later on.
That's why we wanted to give also a flavor of what could be the 2030, because the plan in itself, it's not optimized. We cut it at 2028, and that's it.
Thank you.
Mar Martinez
Next question comes from Jorge Alonso from Bernstein.
Jorge Alonso
Hi, good morning, and thank you very much for the questions and the presentation. I have a couple of questions, please, and it's on the cost-cutting and efficiency plan of these €300 million.
Could you give us some more color about in which areas can be allocated? It will be more in distribution?
Should we see that more in the whatever thermal generation or just to understand at the unit level, where can we see the impact of that efficiencies at EBITDA level? The other one is in distribution as well.
If you can quantify the amount of incentives that you are expecting or considering in the calculation of the revenues or EBITDA in the plan? As well, and I think that Pepe already answered, is that we see a capex in 2028 in distribution of €1.9 billion, but the legal cap will be the 900 plus another 600, it's around 1.5.
If we should consider the normalized capex going forward of between 1.5-1.6, or you still see room because of the need of investing 1.9 or 2 billion annually beyond 2028? Thank you very much.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Jorge. On cost-cutting, important question there, because of course there are areas where we are not putting a particular focus, and those areas are mainly the one of distribution, because with the current scheme of how the regulator decided just to somehow squeeze the profitability of the efficiencies, there is not so much merit.
Whatever you do, actually you're doing almost for someone else. On distribution is less of a focus, and as well as on nuke, because is another regulated stuff and super super-sensitive.
All our effort is basically focused on, as you were correctly mentioning, on generation, but I would say also supply, that of course, the market is changing a lot. We think that AI will impact this a lot, and the things that we are doing and the restructuring that we are doing will impact it a lot.
As always, the structure and stuff that of course, given what we are seeing could come as a revolution, it's an area that will be impacted. When we come to question number three regarding the capex, yes, you're correct, the €1.9 billion.
Is this over the limit? No, it's not over the limit.
You have to remember that basically the limit applies to the 13% of the GDP, the 0.13% of the GDP. The GDP has been increasing, of course you have this limit that is increasing year by year.
On top of that, you put the expansion that is allowed until 2030. Our plan is designed not to overcome that limit in any of the year.
Actually every year we are slightly below that. We cannot risk to go over that limit.
There was incentives. What was the question?
[Spanish] Yes. No, on the incentives, Jorge, we will not give you numbers, but yes, there is of course an improvement.
We also highlighted that basically offsets what we have been experiences as a negative on the opex efficiencies. Thanks.
Mar Martinez
We have now Jenny Ping from Citi.
Jenny Ping
Thank you very much. A couple of questions from me, please.
Firstly, just a clarification question on the power price sensitivity. You said €1 per MWh is €20 million.
Is that on EBITDA or net income? Secondly, in one of the footnotes in your slide around the net income growth of 4%, I think you explicitly say in the footnote that you've assumed a 71 million shares in terms of the net result of the buyback.
If I take out what you've already bought back in 2025, that implies a sub-€30 a share of price in terms of buyback. Does that mean that you're expecting to limit your buyback anything above a €30 threshold?
That's the second question. Then thirdly, maybe I missed it and apologies if I did, where are you now on the island generation investments, where you've got to on that and the expectation of spending over the next 3 years, please?
Thank you.
Marco Palermo
Hi, Jenny. Power price, the 20, it's it's it's for for the €1, it's on EBITDA level.
On the on the your assumption, your your deduction on the limit of our share buyback, what what I can tell you is that we have been buying share last week. We just published, this is we can we can share it as a public information, we just share it last night, was published last night.
The program has been buying last week for all the week, and I guess that the price of last week was around €32 per share, something like that. No, actually, the the the plan will will buy at the price that that that is the price of the share on the on the market, basically.
On the islands, on the third questions, regarding the islands, there we that there has been there has been the the the the actually the final results of the tender, and we were assigned with some of some of those. Actually, we had a extension of life of life in some of the power plants.
Some some of this life extension were coming also from with with incremental capex. That's what we are starting to work on for the for the near future.
It is also worth noticing that there will be there has been also the players, then being allocated new capacity in in different islands. We welcome that, and we think that, that that that's what exactly what what it is needed on the islands, and we welcome also the fact that we're we're not alone in defending the the the the the the regulation there vis-a-vis vis-a-vis the regulator.
In terms of of of investment, we we are, foreseeing approximately €200 €200 million-€300 million along the along the plan. Thank you.
Mar Martinez
We have now Pablo Cuadrado from JB Capital.
Pablo Cuadrado
Thank you, Mar. Good morning, everyone.
Yes, a quick questions for me. One would be on the tax rate that is assumed in the plan.
I look at the full-year results, and there was a decline of 3.5% on the tax rate year on year. Clearly, there were the removal of the tax impact and the levy impact that it was before.
Still, is basically the 2025 figure, the 23.5%, the one that we should assume for the next few years? Second question would be, I saw that you provided the return, let's say, the IRR versus WACC that you get on the renewable segment at around 300 basis points while capex is going down in this new plan.
I was wondering whether you can share which is the spread over WACC on the return that you are supposed to make on the network investments that they are clearly increasing in this plan. Final one is on the unitary generation supply margin.
Hearing what you put on the slide hints that you are expecting an increase, and you explain perfectly the reasons. Shall we assume, given that there is no figure, that basically the reference that you provided last year of the 50 €57 per MWh, if I'm not mistaken, still should be a valid reference for 2028?
Thank you.
Marco Palermo
Thank you, Pablo. On tax rate, well, you should expect now that we do not have the extraordinary levy, you should expect as approximately south of 25% generally year on year.
We generally can be lower because sometimes we have also investments that are recognized as deduction, for example, in innovation and in this kind of things. When you have this kind of investments, then you tend to have a slightly lower tax rate.
From expected profitability from our investment, yes, you're right. There are the 300 bps for what it is greenfield renewables.
In the case of networks, we work with 200 basis points, because of course the risk profile of those investments is lower, and therefore it is okay with a lower requirements in terms of bps. In terms of prices for 2028, of course we didn't put the number there for a reason, but again, I guess that you're not far.
What I said is that we are in the range of 55 to 60, with your €57, you're there, basically. Thank you.
Mar Martinez
Good. This was the last question from the conference call, thank you very much for attending this meeting, and as always, IR team will be available in case you need something else.
Thank you very much, have a nice day.
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