Operator
Welcome to the Groupe SEB 9-month 2026 sales and financial data. Today's conference will be hosted by Loïc Moutault, Chief Executive Officer, and Olivier Casanova, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be on listen-only mode. During the questions-and-answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key 5 on their telephone keypad.
Now, I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Please go ahead.
Loïc Moutault
Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, I want to say that I'm very pleased to speak with you for the first time as Chief Executive Officer of Groupe SEB.
I'd like to, first and foremost, thank the Board of Directors for its trust. It's a real privilege for me to join this group, which has such a distinctive heritage and truly international presence and global footprint.
Over the next few minutes, I will say just a few words about myself, share some very early observations, and, of course, explain and set out my priorities before actually Olivier will take you through our 9-month performance and our year outlook. As you probably can hear, I am French from background, born in Burgundy.
I have always heard about Groupe SEB in my entire childhood, it's a real privilege to be here. However, throughout my career, I've had a very international career.
I worked 30 years in a global, family-owned consumer goods group. I've had the opportunity to lead global brands in really international environment, large-scale industrial footprint.
Most recently, I've had the opportunity to run businesses combining both consumer and professional services activities. I mostly worked in Europe, in multiple markets, but I've had as well the opportunity to work in Asia, which has probably been the most inspiring assignment in my life at the time where Alibaba, Rakuten, and all the platform business and the digital acceleration of online were developed.
It has been such an inspiration that when coming back to Europe and global businesses, I've spent the last 10 years really digitalizing a lot of the business models that we've had in our organization, and move our businesses that were, in some cases, just B2B to start engaging directly with consumers and developing a real footprint to be able to compete directly online. This product category is obviously very different, but the fundamentals are, I think, the same.
Although this was in the last 10 years at the time of SEO, today we are at the time of GEO, I believe the fundamentals and the learnings of this kind of transformation I can of course help reapplying and bringing to life in today's environment, so that we can make our brands relevant to today's world, bring innovation faster in a global environment, and activate the consumer where they are, where they shop, and where they decide their shopping. This is really what inspired me in this challenge.
The early observation, I want to say that I've just joined on October 1st, it's very early days, and obviously I'm spending my time right now simply to listen and engage and learn with the team in the field, multiple one-to-ones, business reviews, site visits, customers encounter, it's really a learning journey at this stage. These are still very early days, as I mentioned, but I've already been struck by a few things.
One is we have a unique portfolio of global and local brands with an incredible footprint in multiple categories. We have genuine love for products and great appetite for deep industrial know-how, which leads to actually fantastic innovation capabilities.
We have a powerful combination of consumer and professional businesses, and I've had the opportunity to live in that kind of world, and I find that very powerful and inspiring. We have a distinctive sustainability model around repairability and ecodesign, which is quite rare, actually, and a true strength for this organization.
What attracted me to SEB, obviously with my having worked in a family-owned business, is as well the family anchoring that we can benefit from, with this ability to have long-term views and investment thesis. Above all, I think our teams around the organization, their expertise and their engagement are genuine.
There is a lot of passion in this organization, which I find inspiring myself. Today, our world is actually evolving very fast.
We know that there is more digital, there is more viral. I think the consumer journey has evolved a lot and changed a lot, and this is one of the muscles that certainly we need to develop at SEB in a strong way and in an accelerated way.
Social media, social commerce shape demands today. I think 80% to 90% of shopping decisions come from digital source, and certainly we need to adapt our model to that.
We are very fortunate that we are in a market where we can create demand. I think, innovation is proving that we can create space in our categories.
One could think that after more than 100 years in our industry, people have everything they need, but the the recent past has as well shown that it's still a category where we can innovate, we can create subcategories, we can bring consumers into different spaces, and create a lot of value for this industry. This is really what excites me, that we can bring consumers along the journey, and when we meet our market, we can create fantastic value.
With brands like us like ours, which are global in footprint, it's a real opportunity. Obviously, we have a roadmap today, and the roadmap is the plan Rebound, which is in full motion as we speak.
It is our opportunity to size the opportunity we have ahead of us. I see it as totally clear and relevant to make us more efficient, more agile as a group as well.
Currently, we are on our objectives and on our timetable. We are delivering.
The team is fully focused on its execution. Olivier will talk about some of the early benefit we already see in '26.
I see my role not to redesign it. I see it to accelerate its execution and amplify its impact across our organization.
First, we need to deliver on our cost objectives. We see the first signs in '26, and this will accelerate in '27, and we will deliver on our commitment.
Second, there is really this ability in the plan to develop this new muscle of generating demand. In particular, how do we bring innovation faster to market?
How do we scale, actually, our launches with new marketing practices in order to generate desirability of our innovations and our products and brands? We have fantastic example already with Coffee Crush, AeroSteam, Ever Sharp, and the aim is to make it a systemic approach that we can bring across our organization and make it kind of the rule and the playbook by which we want to play.
Finally, there is a focus to simplify how we operate, to bring more agility and more responsiveness in our organization. Obviously, it's a buzzword, but we all know that bringing AI solutions across our processes can make this simpler to execute, faster to respond, and bring more energy, free up energy in the organization, so that we can focus on what creates value.
We already see the first benefit of this in the way we develop content today, and the way we start activating our brands, and I believe this is a key opportunity for us to diffuse this approach across the multiple processes that make this organization work. We all know we are living in a very demanding environment, which is volatile, changing very fast, and impacts us in multiple ways.
The recent events in France are only the last example of those. In this kind of environment, what is important is to focus on what we can control.
What we can control is how we execute, how we innovate, and how we drive our cost with discipline. My personal method on onboarding in a new role is to invest time to do a deep diagnostic, and build a team, and build with the team the agenda by which we will drive our organization and lead our organization, and to deploy at pace and at scale the practices that we see relevant to improve the ability of the business to create value.
Transformation of this nature are really large and big in a way, and they only last when the entire organization as a whole can appropriate it and make it theirs. We are not in it for isolated solution.
We really want to evolve the way SEB is operating on the market. Finally, I want to conclude by reminding that our ambition is very clear.
We want to return to profitable growth trajectory. The entire organization is mobilized behind this agenda.
As it would be very presumptuous for me, after 15 days, to present and comment any of our results, I will immediately hand over to Olivier, who will take you through the 9-month performance and the full-year objective. Olivier?
Olivier Casanova
Thank you, Loïc, and welcome.
Loïc Moutault
Thank you.
Olivier Casanova
Let's move to the first 9-month results on page 5 with the highlights. In terms of sales, we reached €5,707 million, which is up 1.1% organically.
Our results from operation stood at €333 million, which is up 25% and €65 million versus the first 9 months last year. In Q3, sales reached €1,964 million and were flat year-on-year, and our results from operation was up €13 million to €161 million in Q3.
Beyond those figures on the following page, what are the other highlights? Clearly, as Loïc reminded us, we are operating in a very complex environment, both from an economic and, of course, geopolitical standpoint.
In that environment, the small domestic equipment market is somewhat resilient and in large parts in various categories that's driven by innovation. I'll come back to that.
We can note also, and this is compounded in Q3, that retailers in various parts of the world are, let's say, more cautious with inventory, and this is impacting slightly the Q3 performance. I've talked about the sales and ORFA, I won't come back on that.
On the Rebound plan, we are progressing satisfactorily. The execution is in line with our expectation and in line with the timeline, and the effects, indeed, are already visible.
We had €20 million cost savings in H1, and we've added another 15 in Q3 to total 35. The 2026 outlook has been confirmed, and in fact even precised.
We are looking at a full-year ORFA growth between 5% and 10%. We intend to return to a more normative free cash flow generation, and we've indicated that means a free cash flow between €350 and €450 million, and we intend to lower the financial leverage, net debt to EBITDA, with a target, I remind you, of around 2 times by end 2027.
Let's comment on the sales first. Moving to page 8, the 9-month sales, as you can see, is up organically by €60 million.
This is driven, as we will see, by the Americas in terms of geographies, and by cookware and home and personal care in terms of product categories. The currency effect, as you can see, is modest overall this year at only -€16 million.
It was negative in Q1, flat in Q2, and in fact it's turned positive in Q3 at +€51 million. This is evident in the next slide when you look at the Q3 sales trajectory.
I'll comment, of course, on the breakdown of organic growth in the following pages, and you can see here the positive currency effect in Q3 that I was talking about, which is due particularly to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan and the Colombian peso in our case. Let's look at the breakdown between consumer and professional.
Professional is down nearly 5% on a 9-month basis and -9% in Q3. I'll come back to that, of course, very shortly.
Consumer is up 1.9% on 9 months and 1.1% in Q3. Let's start with the professional business.
Of course, the first remark that we must always keep in mind is that we need to exercise caution when analyzing quarterly evolution year-on-year, of course given the importance of large deals in our business. That being said, the first message is that the core business and services are solid.
The core business is holding up well, and services, in fact, is growing. It's usually around 30% of sales, and in Q3 it's even up to 35%, driven in particular by the US and the UK.
What is, of course, explaining the performance is the low level of machine sales, in particular to large customers. We've seen a sharply lower contribution of large deals, notably in the US and in Asia.
In the US, we have a market which is still muted with a wait-and-see attitude of many customers. We were also, of course, impacted in the Middle East by the conflict in the region.
Finally, what is key, of course, for us for the future is that we're making strong progress strategically, with notably the ramp-up of the Shaoxing hub. The two new models, Peak and Elevation, are now sold in more than 30 countries.
It was only 15 at the end of June, you can see that the distribution network is being set up rapidly across Europe and Asia in particular. This will help us, I remind you, address a customer base that we were not addressing very well in the past, which is the office and small business segment.
The contribution of those sales is still modest year-to-date, but it will pick up rapidly starting in Q4, and the ramp-up is behind us and the production is now at full speed. Let's look at consumer now.
You can see the picture is very clear that the Americas are driving the growth for the group, and EMEA and Asia on a 9-month basis are showing only a modest increase. Before we start looking at the regional performance, I wanted to draw your attention to a few of our recent innovation successes, starting with kitchen electrics.
You can see, of course, we've talked many times about this, that Coffee Crush continues on its successful path. It's, of course, a very compact bean-to-cup machine, which is quite unique in the market.
It's a great success. We've now launched it in 39 countries, and there is 10 more to come in the next 6 months.
The second example is also we think quite interesting, it's the rice cooker called Pop. It's been launched in Europe and in Asia in 2026, and as you can see, it is targeting the Gen Z customers with a compact size and fun colors, and we expect to sell over 250,000 pieces in 2026 alone.
On the cookware side, we're very pleased with the growth in cookware and kitchenware. It's, of course, the Ingenio line of product in all three, I would say, variations: non-stick, ceramic, and stainless steel.
It's also the Fusiontech range, which is providing, as improved surface treatment, and in particular the ceramic version is 4 times more resistant than the previous generation, therefore addressing one of the main pain points of ceramic. On the next page, on the home and personal care side, the floor washer category continues to grow very fast.
It's supported by continued range extension. We've launched in particular the X-Clean 12, which is the top of the range.
As you can see, also we've entered a replacement cycle, and here you have a picture of the X-Clean Vision Pro, which is going to replace X-Clean 10 and is manufactured in Supor in China. Secondly, the garment steamer, AeroSteam, is again a great success.
We've launched the Elite version in Europe and the S version in the US and Asia. We sold it in 25 countries in the first half and now 30 countries in the second half.
Then finally, spot cleaner, Clean It, the range of product is now expanding. We have five models sold in 20 countries, and sales are doubling versus last year, and we have sold nearly 650,000 pieces since the launch in 2024, and I remind you that this is a new product category for us.
After this review of some product innovation, let's focus on EMEA. Western Europe, as you can see, in Q3 had a mixed performance at -1.5%.
There is good momentum on online D2C sales. The latest launch is being very well received.
I talked about Coffee Crush, AeroSteam Elite, but it's also the Ever Sharp knife blocks. We are, of course, to some extent penalized by the lower inventory levels at retailers, both offline and online.
In France, we are performing well, and we are still growing at a healthy pace in Q3 thanks to market share gains driven by innovation and loyalty programs. Of course, the big sort of negative for us is still Germany in terms of top-line growth.
As we are focusing on improving our profitability, and that is progressing satisfactorily, but the environment remains difficult, especially offline. In other EMEA countries, we have stable organic sales with very diverse situations.
Of course, we are experiencing major logistics disruptions in the Middle East. It's a small region for us overall, but it's nevertheless 10% of the other EMEA countries geographic segment.
We are progressing very well in Turkey and Egypt, driven in particular by online sales, and we have diverging trends in the rest of the region. In the Americas, of course, we're very happy to see double-digit growth both in North America and in South America in the quarter.
In North America, as you may remember, we had a let's say negative trend in Q3 last year, which was down 14%, the comparison basis was favorable, but nevertheless we're seeing further market share gains in the US in cookware and in linen care. In cookware in particular, we are gaining market share both in ceramic and stainless steel, and holding our ground on non-stick, of course.
In Mexico, the market is quite competitive. The economy, of course, is suffering from lower levels of remittances, but we are seeing successful launch of various products, including Coffee Crush.
In South America, we are, let's say, returning to growth in this quarter, of course in large part thanks to a sharp increase in fan sales, given the start of the effect of El Niño, and this is across the subcontinent. In Colombia, we have double-digit growth, very healthy performance thanks to market share gains in our traditional categories such as cookware, but also very good momentum in our product extension.
We've ventured into floor washers and now launched Coffee Crush, and this product extension is really driving sales. In Brazil, we are operating in a complex environment, but the sales are up in Q3 despite the difficulties in physical retail.
Let's turn now to Asia. In China, we have stable sales, of course in a complex consumer environment, and as we've indicated before, we are trying to find the right balance between sales growth, market share, and profitability.
We are gaining market shares in this highly promotional market thanks to a very good performance on social commerce. We are still the leader, we're number one in culinary segment in TikTok, which now represents nearly 25% of our online sales.
We see also strong contribution from various innovations. We're very successful with our titanium woks.
We have launched a new evolution of...
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...table
Olivier Casanova
sales, and this is driven by an improved...
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Olivier Casanova
...improved gross margin thanks to higher volumes, but also a positive impact from short currencies in the quarter, and this is despite the rising negative impact from cost inflation linked to the Iran conflict. It's also driven by strong cost discipline, of course discipline in operating costs, and the first benefits of the Rebound plan, again €15 million more in Q3 to a total of 35 in the first 9 months.
To be noted, we only had a minor positive impact from US tariff refunds in the quarter. Let's now turn to the performance of the Rebound plan and the outlook.
Starting with the chart on the left-hand side, you can see that we are updating our estimate of the benefit for 2026. It was previously in June €40 to €60 million, we're upgrading that to €50 to €60 million.
We are seeing, of course, more rapid benefit on indirect procurement, that's what the chart shows, but looking at the target of €200 million, you can see that the actions that are being taken on structure cost and industrial efficiency will represent the majority of the €200 million savings. Let's look at the progress now on organization, which is the reduction of structure cost and improvement of industrial efficiency.
We are progressing very well. All the labor agreements are now signed for the voluntary departure plans.
The departures, in fact, started in September. The implementation is on schedule, and we believe that the initial targets in terms of reductions will be achieved by the end of March.
On indirect purchases, you remember that we're looking to generate 5% to 6% savings on the scope targeted. We have now more than 500 actions launched, which is up from the 400 that we announced in June, and 2/3 of the total savings are now secured at the end of September.
This is addressing many areas, of course: IT, marketing, logistics, facility management, to name a few. On the cross-functional levers, the first one being the simplification and optimization of our processes and organization, we are progressing well, notably on IT development, supply chain management, and marketing practices.
On the other initiative, which is the reduction in our SKU count by 25% to 30%, we have now identified 100% of those products, and 50% of these actions have been initiated at the end of September. To conclude, let's look at the 2026 outlook, starting on the left-hand side with the environment.
Of course, since we last spoke at the end of July, we can see that the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has, in fact, somewhat deteriorated. The agreement of 17th of June was, of course, short-lived, and the oil price, to take one key, let's say, pointer, is up 25% since July to $110 today.
Vous participez désormais à la conférence. Inflation is now progressively also impacting consumption in various parts of the world, and we're seeing some cost inflation pressure starting to materialize.
That being said, the small domestic equipment market is showing more resilience than other sectors, notably supported by innovations. In this environment, Groupe SEB will be relying on its own actions, which is first our healthy innovation pipeline, with both the ramp-up of new product launched in Q2 and Q3, geographic expansion, and further range expansions.
We are, of course, targeting some selective price actions to compensate some of the cost increases, not so much on listed price, but managing carefully the average selling price. We are, of course, continuing with our strict discipline on COGS and OPEX, and accelerating on the benefit of the Rebound plan.
I want to point out also that Q4 or remind you that Q4 last year was actually quite a high comparison base. It was the third-highest ever, in fact very close to the second, and so it was a good performance in absolute levels.
With that, let's say, these remarks in terms of context, we are confirming our outlook for the year. In fact, we are refining the outlook on ORFA.
We're now targeting a growth between 5% and 10% versus only a full-year growth previously. We confirm the objective to return to a more normative free cash flow generation, continuing the trend evidenced in H1, and we confirm also the objective to lower the financial leverage, with the target to return to around 2 times by the end of 2027.
That concludes, Loïc, the presentation on the 9-month results, and I think we can now turn to Q&A.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6.
The next question comes from Ope Otani from GS. Please go ahead.
Ope Otani
Hi, good evening, gentlemen. Three quick questions from me.
Just on cost-out, guiding to 50 to 60 million this year, done 35 million year-to-date, I suppose you have 15 to 25 million for the rest of the year in Q4. What would determine whether we end up on that range?
Operator
Ope Otani, your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.
Ope Otani
Hi, good evening. Hopefully, you can hear me now.
Suppose I was going to ask three questions. Just on the cost-out, you're guiding to 50 to 60 50 to 60 million now, implies 15 to 25 million for Q4.
I suppose, could you just walk us through how you think of what might determine whether we end up on that range?
Operator
Sorry, we lost the speaker connection, I'm going to reconnect and I will ask you to repeat your question again. Sorry.
Ope Otani
Wait now. Sure.
Sure, that's
Operator
fine now.
Ope Otani
Okay.
Operator
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Vous participez désormais à la conférence. Sorry for this interruption.
I think we have the speakers back. Mr.
Otani, please give your questions again, please.
Ope Otani
Sure. Hi, hopefully you could hear me now.
Hi, Loïc. Hi, Olivier.
Thanks for taking my question. Hello.
Hi. I suppose three questions from my end: one on the cost-out range, one on the implied ORFA range, and then just what you're seeing near term in terms of trading.
I suppose on cost-out, the 50 to 60 million guide implies 15 to 25 million in Q4. I suppose, could you just walk what would determine whether we end up on that range based on how you talk about visibility to cost-out action?
Olivier Casanova
Do you want to ask your three questions first, Ope, and then we'll...
Ope Otani
Sure. Also, yeah, I suppose the second one is just on the ORFA guide.
I suppose 5% to 10% as well implies 30 to 60 million increase. Could you just walk us through the various buckets in that?
I suppose my question there was more so 30 to 60 million increase versus 50 to 60 million cost-out, how should we think of the delta there and sort of commodity headwinds as well? Then lastly, sort of any early commentary on trading so far in the quarter based on what you've seen, and yeah, I'll leave it there.
Olivier Casanova
I'll take those questions. I think the first one was on the cost-out, we're still deploying many actions in the quarter.
I think we feel reasonably confident on the trajectory, but, especially on indirect procurement, until you've closed the new agreements and you've started to implement them, there's still some element of, let's say, uncertainty. We're very confident on the €200 million, but in terms of timing, we will only confirm once we have reached all our, let's say, agreements, especially on indirect procurement.
Regarding the 5% to 10% range, I think the way to look at it is the upper end of the range is based on the assumption that, let's say, on the cost side, we have, of course, the impact of the cost inflation linked to the Middle East situation. We said in July that we expected around €30 million net impact over the second half, and we confirm that.
We had some impact in Q3 and, of course, an acceleration in Q4. We also think that the positive FX tailwind that we had on procurement cost in the third quarter will be less prominent and probably negative, in fact, in Q4.
Against that, we have, of course, the acceleration of the benefit from Rebound, so as you can tell, €15 to €25 million additional savings in Q4 and also probably some additional contribution from US tariff reimbursements. This is what, let's say, drive us to the top end of the range, the 5% to 10% range.
Then the lower end of the range would reflect a slightly more negative demand environment, impacted by the rising inflation in many parts of the world and also maybe some additional price pressure linked to the softer environment. This is, let's say, the uncertainty that drives us to the 5% to 10% range.
Your last question was on current trading. To be honest, we hesitate to express a view today because we are living in a very uncertain world, but we are concentrating on our product launches, we're concentrating on being as efficient as possible in our activation, and we are trying to navigate this complex environment, but it's difficult to be more precise at this stage, given, let's say, the volatile environment in which we operate, not to mention, of course, in France, the events of the last weekend, even though France is only a small part of our group.
In overall, it's less than 10% of our full-year sales, but nevertheless, it's another, let's say, evidence of the difficult and complex environment in which we operate.
Ope Otani
Great. Thanks very much for the answers.
Olivier Casanova
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Marie-Line Fort from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Marie-Line Fort
Yes, good evening. The first question is about the professional division.
Just would like to know how has evolved the order book recently? You mentioned that you think that you could factor in some orders in small machine in Q4.
Is it really Q4 that we could see some momentum improvement or more 2027? The second question is about the risk arising from the legal actions in the US from the usage of PFAS, just to know if you are some worries about that, and what is the calendar to know when will be the issue?
The last question is about the innovation pipeline. You show some nice pictures in the presentation.
Can we still expect some new products for the Christmas period? Could you just comment on what will fuel your commercial activities at the end of the year?
Thank you very much.
Olivier Casanova
Merci, Marie-Line. First on professional, to be honest, we're not expecting a significant change in the general environment, and I think the wait-and-see attitude will probably prevail in Q4.
That being said, the performance in Q3, I think, was very specific to this quarter, we are not expecting a similar, let's say, percentage drop in Q4, but we are continuing to see, let's say, some prudent customers. That being said, we are confident on the ramp-up of our sales of small machines, the Peak and Elevation, because our production has now reached, let's say, nominal capacity, and I think we have, let's say, very good prospects to, let's say, really pick up our revenue in this segment.
Again, let's exercise caution in the current environment, but we are progressing on the fundamentals of the business. Concerning the situation, concerning the PFAS, I think you're probably referring to the formal notice that was served by various associations regarding the vigilance plan.
What we can say at this stage is that, of course, we have taken note of this notice. We are examining it carefully and we'll respond in the timeframe.
It concerns, as the vigilance plan and, in particular the measures regarding the identification, prevention, and mitigation of certain risks. This vigilance plan is, in particular, in our 2025 Universal Registration Document.
Of course, we said many times the use of non-stick products using PTFE coating present no harm for human health. We have a long list of organizations which testify to that, not to mention the World Health Organization or the European Food Safety Authorities.
I think that's well documented. However, the vigilance plan, of course, is updated regularly, we are going to take, of course, a look at it.
We remain, of course, open to discussions, including with these associations behind this initiative, and, as I mentioned, we will respond in due course to the remarks expressed regarding our vigilance plan.
Marie-Line Fort
Innovation.
Olivier Casanova
On innovation, the pipeline, of course, we'll have the ramp-up from the products that've been launched in Q2 and Q3. In Q4, we will benefit in particular among the products I haven't mentioned, from the increased range of our X-Force products, vacuum cleaners, in particular the 2080, which is, let's say, the most premium product that we've launched in this category, and which is both the most powerful and the most silent in its category.
This will certainly be, let's say, an interesting product to follow. We have, of course, the ramp-up from the various Fusiontech.
We have an expansion of our Ever Sharp range with the daily, after the Pro, the daily Ever Sharp, which is, let's say, addressing a lower price segment. Again, many innovations, not to mention an interesting product which is currently being launched in the UK, which is Yummeal, and, Marie-Line, I encourage you to watch the video on YouTube, and I'll be interested in your feedback on this product, but it's quite an innovative and very cute product, very smart.
Marie-Line Fort
I will. Thank you.
Olivier Casanova
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Alessandro Cecchini from Equita. Please go ahead.
Alessandro Cecchini
Hello, everybody, and thank you for taking my questions. About pricing, you stated that you are thinking or you are launching selective price hikes, so, just to understand, is something that to address 2027 inflationary pressures expected, or do you think that you could have some traction also in the fourth quarter?
Looking ahead 2027, I know that, of course, it's early, but on the professional side, what do you expect, actually, to return? Which kind of growth do you expect after a year that it's ending, probably below our, but also your, expectations?
Thank you.
Olivier Casanova
Thank you. The price hikes, as you say, are there to pass on some of the cost inflation that we are experiencing.
It's part of our, let's say, arsenal of measures to counter this, the others being, of course, let's say, industrial efficiency and cost savings, but also new redesign to cost initiative, and renegotiation with our suppliers. It's a combination of measures which will help us to address the cost inflation.
We are implementing those measures as we speak, in fact, starting September, October. It's progressive, as I mentioned.
It will not be principally by addressing listed prices, but more managing maybe more, let's say, selectively, promotions in order to improve the average selling price, and we're also, of course, where possible, adjusting the launch price for some of our, let's say, attractive innovations, where it is possible. This is going to start impacting Q4, let's say, profits and will, of course, continue to impact 2027.
Regarding the professional, again, I hesitate to make, let's say, forecast on 2027 because this is largely dependent on, let's say, the global environment and the attitude of our large deals. What I can say is that we feel relatively confident on the core business.
We feel good about the development of our service business, which is and should continue to grow next year. What will be the attitude of large customers and what will be the volume of large deals, honestly, it's difficult to tell at this stage, but we will, of course, benefit from the ramp-up of our Shaoxing hub, and we've had, of course, let's say, the full production capacity available only in the last four four three to four months of the year, and next year, of course, we should have 12 months benefit from this capacity, and so this will bring a positive dynamism to our sales next year, but, on large deals, difficult to tell.
Alessandro Cecchini
Okay. Many many thanks.
Olivier Casanova
Thank you.
Operator
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Chiara Tomesani from UBS.
Please go ahead.
Chiara Tomesani
Hi, and thank you, my question. I'd like to ask a clarification regarding the ORFA guidance.
Like before you mentioned some tariff refunds and the impact from FX in the second half. Could you please provide us some more color?
Then the second question would be on the professional pipeline, and I was wondering whether there is any update to share. Lastly, I'd like to ask if you're seeing any signs that retailers are rebuilding inventory into Q4.
Thank you.
Olivier Casanova
Thank you, Chiara. On ORFA, as I mentioned, there are, let's say, positives and negative forces.
On the negative side, we're seeing, let's say, acceleration of the cost inflation impact and some FX headwind due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the CNY, and so we will have, let's say, probably low double-digit negative impact from short currencies in Q4, at least that's what we can expect for as of today. On the positive side, I mentioned the benefit from Rebound, we've indicated a €15 to €25 million additional benefit, and then probably some additional contribution from US tariff repayments, if you want to be more specific, I think it's going to be mid to high single digit.
Regarding the pro pipeline, again, what we can say is that we're building a range of new product to address the small businesses and offices segment. We've launched the first two, but we have more on our roster of new product.
We're also continuing to develop product for large customers. As a number of our product are in fact customer-specific, and so there are, let's say, very interesting initiatives being pursued right now, but it's too early to say more at this stage.
Regarding the consumer business, to be honest, we are not expecting a rebuilding of inventory at this stage. I think in the current very uncertain environment with inflationary pressure impacting consumer spend, we expect distributors generally to remain very cautious, both offline and online, and to maintain relatively, let's say, low levels of inventory.
There's no reason, at least at this stage, no evidence that there should be any restocking soon.
Chiara Tomesani
Thank you so much.
Olivier Casanova
Okay.
Operator
The next question comes from Fraser Donlon from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Fraser Donlon
Yes, hi there, Olivier, and welcome, Loïc. It's Fraser here from Berenberg.
I just had three questions. The first was on the tariff rebate.
I don't know if you could maybe give an indication or a closer indication of the magnitude of that in Q3 and then what we should expect in Q4. The second question is about the professional business and kind of how you're thinking about cost, and if you could almost give a reminder of Rebound plan touches that division today, just because I'm imagining maybe margins are a little bit under pressure and how you see the pathway to recovering there.
The third question, could you just remind me if there's any loyalty program effects in France either in Q3 or if we should consider any particularly impacts then in Q4, if not? Thank you very much.
Olivier Casanova
Thank you, Fraser. On the tariff, as I mentioned, it's a minor impact on Q3, minor means low single digit, and on Q4, I think I've mentioned, let's say, between mid to high single digit impact.
I think that's as precise as I can be at this stage. On the professional, of course, we are continuing to work on cost optimization, and yes, you're right, professional is part of the Rebound plan, both on, let's say, industrial efficiency measures, but also on optimization of our OPEX, it's definitely part of Rebound.
On loyalty program, there was a benefit on loyalty program in Q3 in France, as we've mentioned. In general, we have a good level of loyalty program this year against quite a low level last year, it has been positive.
Again, loyalty program, as we always say, this is part of our bread-and-butter business, it's absolutely normal. It's just that we single them out because in one quarter they can represent a significant variation element from one year to another, but it's absolutely, let's say, normal, and we've had loyalty program in particular impacting positively our sales of personal care products.
Thanks very much.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your questions. Let me now hand over the call to the speakers for closing remarks.
Loïc Moutault
Thank you very much, everyone. As you've noticed, I haven't been a lot of help for Olivier this time, as I have just joined the business, and I'm looking forward for our call in February, where maybe I will be a bit more supportive.
Thank you, Olivier, for answering all the questions on our behalf. Thank you for joining us, and your questions, and we look forward for more encounters going forward.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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