Eni S.p.A.

Eni S.p.A.

27.62
EUR
+1.18
(+4.46%)
1.22EPS
11.59P/E
60.17BMarket Cap
Mar 04Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 26, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Eni's 2025 fourth quarter and full-year results conference call, hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer.

For the duration of the call, you will be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call, you will have the opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and 1 on your telephone.

I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Thank you. Good morning everyone.

2025 was a year of exceptional progress at Eni. We develop and executed our distinctive strategy, in many cases exceeding our original target.

We will discuss in detail our update plan at the forthcoming Capital Markets Update in March. I can say at this point that 2025 provide an excellent guide to what you should expect the future to hold for Eni.

Last year's result prove the value of our consistent strategy, strong operational and financial performance, timely project delivery to support growth, and diversified investment for the short and long term to generate further value for investors. Specifically looking in detail at the three main business pillars, the successes are compelling.

First, Global Natural Resources: we started up six major projects as planned. This supported an underlying production increase of 4%, well above our original full-year guidance, and growth above 7% over the 2022-2025 period, leading among our peers.

Project execution is a clear strength of ours, and both Agogo in Angola and Congo LNG are further examples of our leadership in time-to-market. In addition, we took FIDs on four major new projects, three of which are operated, driving a strong reserves replacement ratio of above 160%, and meaning we currently have 500,000 barrel per day of production under development, securing our medium-term outlook.

At the portfolio level, we have also established a new platform of growth by creating our largest business combination with Petronas in Indonesia and Malaysia, and we are progressing our Argentina LNG project with YPF and XRG. Alongside, our continuous exploration success underpins our long-term outlook.

We discovered 900 million barrel of new resources in 2025, reaffirming our industry-leading track record, now over 10 billion barrel of resources discovered since 2014 at less than $1 per barrel from multiple geographies and different geological plays. Our focus on value as well as volume is also emphasized by our continual action to valorize our resources through dual exploration, as we did in Indonesia with the business combination, in Côte d'Ivoire, and high-grade our portfolio through tail asset divestments.

GGP is a business we have comprehensively transformed in the past few years, and notwithstanding a softer market, we deliver EBIT above €1 billion for the fourth consecutive year. Gas to power was also a strong contributor in 2025, and together these result emphasize the work underway to capture more margin from our equity production.

Second, our transition activities: they generate material growth and value creation, and are important in diversifying and strengthening Eni's earnings. In a year that was not remarkable for market improvement, we prove the robustness of our integrated business models, and we have been rewarded with strong earnings, €2 billion of EBITDA, and by the validation from the market with a contribution of €5.8 billion from top private equity firms.

These deals were completed at multiple around three times those of Eni stand-alone, implying over €23 billion of enterprise value for these new business lines. We are locking in further growth with both Plenitude and Enilive.

Plenitude expanded its renewable capacity by more than 40% in 2025 and will add 10% to its customer base in 2026 on closing the agreed Acea Energia acquisition. Enilive has three new biorefineries under construction, and two more have recently reached FID, together representing a further net 2 million tons of annual capacity.

Third, industrial transformation: changes in energy market bring challenges that we are successfully mitigating, but also opportunities. In this context, we are advancing the transformation of our traditional refineries, and we have set out the decisive measures to address challenges in our chemical business that are the same impacting the entire European industry.

In 2025, we accelerate these actions, closing the crackers at Brindisi and Priolo three to six months earlier than planned. At the same time, we are transforming Versalis towards bio, circular, and specialized products.

The strategic and operational progress achieved in 2025 translates into exceptional financial delivery. Robust financial position is critical in managing the cycle, preserving flexibility, and delivering our strategy.

Last year, CFFO at €12.5 billion was €1.5 billion ahead of plan on a scenario-adjusted basis. Responding promptly to the more challenged scenario, we cut gross capex from a planned €9 billion to €8.5 billion, and we identified cash initiatives totaling €4 billion, raised from an initial €2 billion, including delivering €0.5 billion of savings.

Net capex on a pro forma basis was lower than €5 billion versus our initial expectation of €6.5 to €7 billion as we executed on more portfolio activity for better value. As a result, pro forma gearing at year-end was 14%, with net debt down almost €3 billion over the year.

These outcomes gave us the opportunity to raise our share buyback by 20% from €1.5 billion to €1.8 billion, achieving the unique combination in 2025 of both lowering debt and enhancing shareholder distribution. In Q4, pro forma adjusted EBIT was €2.9 billion, up 6% year-on-year, despite the lower oil price and weaker dollar.

We reported excellent E&P results, with production up 7% year-on-year and 5% sequentially at 1.839 million barrel per day, underpinned by the positive impact of 2025 startups. Full-year production of 1.728 million barrel per day was 2% above our guidance for the year.

GGP Q4 EBIT of €0.1 billion delivered on our raised full-year guidance of more than €1 billion, despite relatively low volatile markets. Plenitude and Enilive together delivered €2 billion of pro forma adjusted EBIT in the year, and Enilive benefited from improved bio margins in the quarter, partly offsetting seasonally lower marketing.

Refining returned to profit in the quarter, albeit held back by relatively low utilization rates, while chemicals continued to see a weak scenario, offsetting the early benefits of the restructuring underway. Q4 adjusted net profit was €1.2 billion, with a tax rate of 37%, as we adjusted to a full-year rate of 44%, just below guidance.

CFFO in Q4 was €3 billion, representing excellent cash conversion again, helped by the material cash initiatives we undertook in the year. Full-year cash flow at €12.5 billion was €1.5 billion above our full-year guidance on a scenario-adjusted basis.

Thanks to a release in working capital and our actions around the portfolio, we were able to fund our capex, shareholder distributions, and other commitments, and also to significantly reduce debt. Gross organic capex in the quarter was €2.6 billion, taking the full-year figure to €8.5 billion, €0.5 billion less than our original plan.

Valorizations and portfolio activities have raised around €10 billion over the past two years. In 2025, we completed more than €6.5 billion in valorization and portfolio activity, which meant that, adjusting to a pro forma basis, net capex was lower than €5 billion, around €2 billion below our original plan.

But 2025 is not a one-off year. For 2026, we expect to limit our gross capex to around €7 billion and net capex at around €5 billion.

We reduced net debt over 2025 by almost €3 billion, as we said, bringing gearing to 15% at the year-end, or 14% on pro forma basis. We can confirm that we expect pro forma gearing in 2026 to remain at historically low levels at between 10 to 15%.

Our shareholder distribution details, we have to revert to the CMU in March, but we can confirm a full funded, attractive, and growing dividend is our first priority. In the last 5 years, we have raised the dividend by an average of 5% per year, reflecting underlying growth and the reduction of share emission.

At the same time, we have additional tool of distribution via the buyback that reflects our policy of sharing cash flow generation and its upside. In 2025, for example, we raised the buyback by 20%, the third occasion in the past 4 years we have increased distributions.

In conclusion, 2025 was a clear outcome of Eni's strategy in action. Looking ahead, we will update on our plan in March, but strategy remain unchanged.

The choices we make in how we do business are driven by our industrial, technological, and commercial strength, and by a business model that has proven to perform in strong and soft market conditions. The upstream will grow organically at a sector-leading rate, leveraging our exploration successes and our proven ability to fast-track time-to-market, while managing costs and delivering the value from our business combinations and partnerships.

On the energy transition, we will deliver the programs outlined for Plenitude and Enilive, while developing CCS, fusion, battery storage, and data centers for hyperscalers coupled with blue power, and exploring opportunities in critical minerals. Portfolio activity will again be material in 2026, as we continue to pursue disciplined capital alignment and value disclosure.

In March, we will share with you the details that underpin this outlook and which support continued, highly attractive investor returns. Now, we and the rest of Eni top management are ready to take your questions.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This is the conference operator.

Please press star and 1 for questions. First question is from Alejandro Vigil, Santander.

Alejandro Vigil

Yes, hello. Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations for the results.

I have two questions about the upstream business. Definitely, you will elaborate more on the Capital Markets Day.

I'm very interested in the outlook for this year thanks to the contribution of the joint venture with Petronas. You can elaborate about potential increase in production driven by this joint venture.

The second question is about Kazakhstan. There is a lot of noise in the media, and I would like to know your view about the situation in the country.

Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Thank you. Thank you for the questions.

I just give you a few words about Petronas and the outlook and Kazakhstan. Then I will give Guido the possibility to expand and elaborate on these two questions.

Petronas, I think that Petronas will be finalized by, I don't know, the end of the second quarter, and is going to give a contribution clearly, yes. We cannot be precise now.

I think that we can give you more detail in March. Clearly, is going to give a contribution in term of production for 6 months.

As we're going to have immediately a company that is producing about 300,000 barrel per day. We have already projects that we're going to implement the FID in the next years to reach 500,000 barrel per day.

We already drilled in Indonesia, as successful wells that we can tie in to the existing infrastructure. We talk about reserves and not just resources.

Kazakhstan, I think that is a long story, because in the last 15 years, every three two years we have some renegotiation and some I can say disputes, but more discussion, because we are friends. As always happened between friends, we always find a solutions.

I'm positive about the future. Now I think that Guido can take over and give you more detail.

Guido Brusco

Yeah. Thanks, Claudio.

Sorry, barring from more details coming in the next CMU, of course, the growth of production next year will be driven by the project we have started up recently. We will see more production coming from Congo, from Norway, from Angola, from UAE, and of course from Indonesia.

As I said, more details will come in a few more weeks. As far as Kazakhstan, of course, as the Republic has advanced several arbitration claims regarding production performance, cost recovery, environmental matters, sulfur storage, and the JV is defending.

There is a broad claim here which it's in the arbitration court at the moment, and we do not expect a result before 2027-2028. However, we continue as the operator is saying, confirmed that operation have been conducted in compliance with the law of Kazakhstan, and the operator had always possessed the required permits, and therefore we are challenging this sulfur fine in all the courts.

Alejandro Vigil

Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Alex. We can now pass over to Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

Michele, you can ask your questions.

Michele Vigna

Thank you very much, and congratulations on the results. I wanted to ask two questions.

First, on your capex guidance for '26 of €7 billion, I was wondering if you could walk us through the bridge between the 8.5 this year and the 7. Clearly, the deconsolidation of Indonesia plays a part, but if you could give us a bit more detail.

Then secondly, the more we look at all of your discoveries and access in the last couple of years, it feels like you probably have the best pipeline of new projects you've ever had in your corporate history. How should we think about your priorities for FID in 2026, given the wealth of opportunities between Namibia, Indonesia, Côte d'Ivoire, and all of your recent discoveries?

Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Thank you. Thank you for the question.

It's true we said that we cut our capex, or we reduce our capex from 8.5 this year to €7 billion. That is a reduction in term of capex optimization.

We are not reducing the growth. We are not touching the growth of the company, but just we became more efficient.

Because we have a strategy, or we applied a strategy to be more efficient, starting from the exploration. Exploring and go to the place where we have existing facilities.

Then this year we had a very excellent success, also last years. We are moving at 1 billion or less than 1 billion resource discoveries in the right place where we have infrastructure.

That means that we can continue to reduce capex because we need less capex to produce more production. That was a strategy that is not something that you can start overnight.

Is something that we start in 2011, '12, '13. Is something that we built day by day because we never stop exploration.

We never stop exploring. We never stop developing.

We never stop going directly to the development and working as upstreampreneur. That is the reason why we can reduce our gross capex.

Then we have other points that maybe Guido can explain to you, that is an additional, important legs that can explain why we can reduce capex. Guido, you can explain.

Guido Brusco

Claudio, and just building on what you were saying about the advantaged barrels, the project we have started up in the last 4-5 years and the prospective project which you will have more visibility in the Capital Market Update are project with, first of all, low unit development costs. Second, they have longer plateau.

We can devote less capex to maintain the production and fight the decline, and more capex for the growth at the same capex level in a nutshell. As far as concern your question, Michele, about what will come next year, of course we have a great degree of optionality.

We have a very large and diverse portfolio of projects. Clearly, next year the project that we will focus more in term of FIDs: Argentina, Ivory Coast, Cyprus, plus few more geographies in Africa.

Jon Rigby

Was that okay, Michele?

Michele Vigna

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Jon Rigby

Thank you. We're going to now move on to Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

Biraj, if you're there, ask your questions.

Biraj Borkhataria

Hi, yeah. Thanks for taking my question.

Just to follow up on the capex point and the number you've guided today, how much of that year-on-year change is the Indonesia capex coming out as you deconsolidate it? Is there anything you can say on the CFFO contribution that will be removed also when you deconsolidate that production?

Then second question is just on Versalis. You've now closed down the crackers, but we haven't seen that sort of come through in the P&L.

Do you still expect to be EBIT breakeven in 2027? What should we expect for 2026?

Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Capex Indonesia, we already said that I think that we can start work on Indonesia after the finalization of the business combination of the new company that we expect end of second quarter. I think, in any case, the impact on capex on Indonesia will not be very large this year, because then we have FID to take maybe in '26, but mainly in 20 in 2027.

For Versalis, I think Adriano, CEO Versalis, can give some answer and some light.

Adriano Alfani

Sure. Thanks for the question.

We have seen some improvement in the second half of 2025 following the shutdown of the two crackers that, as we said before, we move forward and we stop earlier than what was the original plan. Unfortunately, the positive impact, although you remember what we said in the previous call, that the impact of two major cracker shutdown you start to see after 12-18 months.

We've seen some positive impact, and this helped in order to mitigate the deterioration in the scenario. We've seen improvement in the second half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024, and we continue to see also in the beginning of the months of 2026.

We're taking additional actions in order to mitigate the plan that is not coming as expected in term of scenario. I'm pretty sure that you have seen so many shutdown have been announced in the last 3 years, close to 160 shutdown announcement.

In the next Capital Market Update, we're going to share the plan for the next 2-3 years. Yep,

Jon Rigby

thank you. Thanks, Biraj.

We're going to move to Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia, if you're there?

Lydia Rainforth

Thank you, and good afternoon. Two questions, if I could, please.

The first one, on the exploration side, and building a little bit on Michele's question earlier, you've clearly been very, very successful in what you've done. Can you actually give us what the success rate is now?

Are we looking at sort of one in two, four out of five wells? I'm just trying to work out what that success rate is.

Then secondly, just on AI, clearly you've got a lot of computing power. I'm just wondering what you're seeing, if you're seeing any benefits at this point, or what your plans are around that.

Thank you. On

Guido Brusco

exploration, last year we've been very, very successful, and success rate was exceptionally high, as you could also notice from the very low right-off we basically written in our books. It was really exceptionally high, very close to 100% the success rate last year.

On the AI, as you may be aware, last year we've opened a new business line on data center coupled with the gas-fired plant. We have a plan with international partners to develop a data center in the north of Italy, close to Milan, up to 500 megawatt, split in different phases.

We have a first phase which will go from 80 to 100 megawatt, and the second phase to 500 megawatt. This is in an area which is underdeveloped, and in a country like Italy which has foreseen a demand of AI center by 2030 up to 1 1 The impact, of course, we are forerunner in term of application of technology and supercomputational capacity on our activity.

The exploration success is one example of it. Of course, AI will apply also on other segments of the business in the upstream, like the production improvement, drilling and project improvement, rotating machine enhancement.

We expect a significant impact on the AI. Just to remind that in the industry, we have already the one of the lowest downtime for the production facilities, which is less than 1%, while the average of the industry, Wood Mac data, is around 3.5%.

Lydia Rainforth

Brilliant. Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Lydia. We're now going to move to Irene Himona at Bernstein.

Irene, if you're there?

Irene Himona

Yes, good afternoon. Congratulations on a strong year, especially in the upstream.

Can you please say, firstly, what did you change exactly to high-grade production? What does that involve?

Secondly, can you remind us what upstream tax rate we should expect in an environment of $65 to $70 Brent? Then finally, very quickly, looking at the 10 billion boe of resource you have discovered since 2014, can you say roughly what the split is between gas and liquids, please?

Thank you.

Guido Brusco

On the what we did, basically, question of the high-grading, of course, in our portfolio we are bringing onstream project with very highly profitable cash flow per barrel, and we are divesting late-life assets. The combination of these two elements, the new project and the late-life asset disposal, is high-grading our portfolio.

You may have also seen that if we compare the free cash flow per barrel from 2024 to 2025, we have seen a 10 a 10% increase. On the tax rate—

Claudio Descalzi

Before talking about the tax rate, you remarked a very successful increase in our production. Absolutely what Guido said is true.

We have a different quality in term of barrel, higher cash flow per barrel, but also we have been successful in the last years to be in term of time-to-market. Time-to-market and budget.

We have been able to not only respect our schedule, but be in most of the case faster. That clearly impacted positively the production, impacted the internal rate of return of all our projects, and we respected, honored all the budgets.

That is something that maybe is not clear or explicit to everybody, to investor, to all our community, but that is one in one key point of success in term of result and the value of our volume. Tax rate?

Francesco Gattei

On the tax rate, as you have seen, there is a fluctuations that are mainly related clearly to the composition, in this case you mentioned the upstream tax rate, of the composition in term of production and contribution of different countries, on the exploration write-off, and some additional or one-off factor that could imply or determine certain effects. In the 2026, the expectation is to, with a $62 that is for the time being our assumption, a tax rate that should be in the range of 45% to 50%.

Clearly, if the price will improve, there will be a lower tax rate.

Guido Brusco

Just to complete, you made another question, the split between oil and gas of the discovery is 70% gas and 30% oil.

Irene Himona

Thank you very much.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Irene. We are now going to move over to Josh Stone at UBS.

Josh?

Josh Stone

Thanks, Jon, and good afternoon, everyone. Two questions, please.

One, I wanted to pick up on this Italian energy reform that got passed, and whether you had a chance to estimate the initial impacts, because it looks like it's quite complicated, lots of moving parts. It's connected to gas spreads, the ETS, and tax.

Maybe you can just talk about how you're thinking about that, is it being a net positive or net negative, and the different impacts on your different parts of the businesses, that would be useful. Thanks.

Then the second question on the buyback. I know we've got to be patient for the actual number, but I was hoping you could maybe share just your thought process here and the importance you put on buybacks after the rerating of your stock.

Am I right in saying when you set this buyback, you'll be using the $62 oil price deck for 2026? Thanks.

Francesco Gattei

About the energy bill that you were referring in Italy, clearly the impact is slightly negative, but quite marginal, because you have to consider that, as Eni, we are not just a supplier and a producer, but we are also an important industrial player in the country, with different activities, spanning from the refinery, chemicals, biorefineries, and also certain upstream activity, clearly. You have to consider that the overall effect is mitigated by this double exposure.

Is absolutely, let's say, marginal towards the overall performance of Eni. In terms of buyback, I was mentioned before the reference is $62 for the expectation for the next year in terms of pricing.

We have to confirm at the next Capital Market Day. Clearly, you know what is the structure of our distribution policy.

When we set up a buyback, that is clearly the variable component of our distribution. This is a floor, and historically we proved that this is a floor, because we raised the floor three times in 4 years.

The scope is substantially to share the upside that will emerge both in the performance and the scenario to our investors. We will provide all the details in the Capital Market Day at the end of March.

Josh Stone

Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Josh. Now we are looking for Alastair Syme, Al, at Citi Group.

Oh, Al has disappeared off the list. Apologies.

We're going to move to Matt Lofting at J.P. Morgan.

Matt Lofting

Thanks. Hi, everybody, and congratulations on the strength of execution throughout 2025.

Just two quick questions from my side. First, coming back to the net debt and gearing targets.

You mentioned Asia and the JV earlier, I wondered whether there was any other accounting effects in those targets, including any allowance for a possible deconsolidation of Plenitude, which I know has been sort of talked about in the past. Then secondly, Eni is obviously one of the companies in the industry that's retained a presence in Venezuela.

Do you have any thought at this point on the near- and longer-term upside that could sit there for you in the country, and how you'd sort of think about ranking that within the range of portfolio opportunities that you have from a capital allocation and risk-reward perspective? Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Thank you. Francesco, look after gearing, and I'm look after Venezuela.

Francesco Gattei

Okay. Clearly about the gearing target that we provide you is a let's say, an effect of a number of action and levers.

As we said before, there is a stronger operational performance, cash flow improvement, capex efficiency, and clearly the satellite model that helps to, let's say, transform this potential contribution in terms of growth in stand-alone companies or entities that will be able by themselves to provide their debt. We are studying different solutions.

You were referring to Plenitude, but clearly we are working on different concepts, and potentially this could be, but is something that will be eventually disclosed at the proper time.

Claudio Descalzi

Venezuela, what what I can say that, for sure, is an upside for us, an upside from several points of view, just not just one, two, maybe three upside, different kind of upside. The first one that, through the general licenses, #50, that has been issued a few days before, one week, one week, I think, we can recover our gas.

Venezuela can pay through using crude the gas that we deliver to the domestic market. That is already a big upside.

Before, we were stuck for almost 1 year, and that created a very a build-up of our outstanding. Now that that is done.

Then there is a second upside: we have blocks, we have oil, we are in one of the best block in the Orinoco Belt. We are also offshore with Corocoro, and that possible additional development can use to recover the past costs, or the past the past outstanding, that's are around $3 billion, and that is another upside.

For sure, we are working with some American companies to see if we are create a joint venture to develop this field. Producing, clearly, they can grow up production quite quickly, and that is a possible upside.

The third upside is gas. Gas is something that is needed.

You have to consider that U.S. have to increase or deliver additional 20 billion, or more 20 billion in 1 year, less than 1 year, because with the sanction on the LNG gas, Russian gas, we we need to compensate this 20 billion.

You have to they have to increase. You ask me they also gas in domestic market.

The gas that we discover, about 20 Tcf in Perla, with additional prospect that are really located in the right position not just to deliver domestic gas, but also to export to Europe, is an a is a third opportunity. Clearly these are in line with what President Trump wants, I mean develop the oil and gas in Venezuela for Venezuela first, but also to create a different kind of environment in the region.

I see that very positively.

Jon Rigby

Super.

Matt Lofting

Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Matt. We move to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley.

Martijn?

Martijn Rats

To be honest, most of my questions have largely been asked, but I've got one left. There have been a couple of articles saying that you're interested in sort of revitalizing some of the oil trading business within Eni and including some partnerships with some other firms.

I was wondering if you could provide some color around that issue, what your thoughts are on that area.

Guido Brusco

We've started a journey to improve our trading and extract more value from this segment of the business. We've created one single organization, we have put under one umbrella all the trading arms of the company all along the value chain to extract all the margins.

That's the number one. Number two, we have changed also some of our approaches to the risk.

We're becoming a little bit less risk averse. Number three, we are, of course, looking at different way to do business.

In doing that, of course, we have started a dialogue with some international trading players in the recent months.

Martijn Rats

Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Martijn. We are going to move to Massimo Bonisoli at Equita.

Massimo?

Massimo Bonisoli

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my two questions.

One on capex, net M&A was around €4 billion in 2025, roughly €2 billion above the initial guidance, with a €2 billion target also for 2026. Does this implicitly raise your opportunities over the 4-year plan?

I'm curious to understand if you have more options in your portfolio than 1 year ago. The second question on biofuels, how do you see biofuels trading environment evolving in 2026, particularly in terms of margins and market balance between supply and demand?

Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Yes, thank you, Massimo. About the net capex and the portfolio effect, as you can see, we continue to upgrade our portfolio, to leverage on our capability to execute and to explore and to have success for the dual exploration model, to valorize, as we have done so far, the business line that will be recognized as valuable through the transition.

There is a large list of opportunity. As remember, last year we declared there was a risked amount, and the result at the end, in terms of value and the higher effect, is the fact that clearly we had a positive result at the end.

In term of this year effect of €2 billion, you can also already appreciate that we completed in early January the first disposal, that was the Ivory Coast top-up, and this is something that is already on our, let's say, results. We are moving to additional progress or activity related, in particular, Indonesia 10% is a program that is ongoing, and some other additional element.

We continue to work, and you should expect, as we had last year, eventual upside because we generally risk our overall portfolio program.

Stefano Speroni

On biofuels, thanks for the question, Massimo. Biofuels, we see the development is absolutely constructive.

We estimate a biofuel demand in 2026 above 20 million. This year is going to be around 16 million, a significant step-up.

It's going to be driven mainly by Europe and US. Main reason for this demand growth is twofold.

In Europe is the well-known Renewable Energy Directive #3. We quoted the Germany example even in previous call.

I just want to add that, on top of getting extra GHG reduction target and the ban of double counting, they are even asking to allow site investigation in foreign countries that are providing flows to Germany in order to be that flow accountable. This is actually a positive involvement for the supply-demand balance.

This is another good news. Talking about US, actually just yesterday the EPA said that within the end of March they want to finalize the new renewable volume target.

Expectation is to have a significant increase, between 35% and 40% increase. We are seeing this already on the RIN prices.

RIN prices improved by 40% from the beginning of the year, and as this happened without an improvement in terms of RIN generation. This means that in order to cope with the new EPA target, we need to have RIN generation improvement, and this is going to drive economic margins improvement itself.

Last comment: this year we saw a reduction, a destocking of the RIN banking. It's about half a billion destocking, and this is a turning point that revert the trends that we saw previous year when the RIN banking actually got exactly in the opposite direction with an increase of 2 billion.

We expect this trend to definitely move forward and to rebalancing the supply demands overall.

Massimo Bonisoli

Clear. Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Stefano. Thanks, Massimo.

We're going to move now to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark, if you're online?

Mark Wilson

Okay. Thank you, and good afternoon.

You said earlier how the strategic path that has got you where you are in upstream is not one that you can start overnight: the exploration, the infrastructure, as you say, you've never stopped. Now, you also spoke to AI impacting exploration, and on the last call you spoke to the technical hedge that floating LNG is giving you.

My question is that it's impossible to have this kind of delivery alone, I'd like to ask which third-party areas, other than the ones already spoken to, across your upstream partners or indeed oilfield service contractors, where has the greatest improvement been to assist your delivery? Is it drilling, reservoir characteristic, EPC cycle time, shipyards, is it something else?

That would be my question. Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi

Thank you for the question. It's very interesting.

No, first of all, we are never alone in life. I have a lot of colleagues with me in Eni, but we are not alone in term of strategy.

When other company outsourcing, we insourcing. That means that we kept in our company all the main competencies.

That started in the 2000, and so 2000, and 2000, 2011, 2012, we decide to insource. We didn't follow the mainstream that say, reduce cost, and make your contractors as a main contractor and they do everything turnkey.

No, we want to take our hand in each project. That means that in the last, I think 16, 17 years, we put our competencies, and we increase our competencies in all the different segments of our business.

I talk about E&P, but not only. We increase the R&D investment.

We open up seven R&D centers. We increase our R&D people, 1.

1.2 thousand people. We have in our hand technology in drilling, reservoir, all seismic, and development, and we made a revolution in our time-to-market.

We are the best, we can say, in time-to-market. We are not alone, but we are alone in term of the choices we made in the last 15 years.

I think that is the main reason. I don't know if Guido share this point or want to say something else.

I hope, and I think no.

Guido Brusco

It couldn't be better said. It couldn't be better said.

Mark Wilson

I think it was very well said. Thank you very much.

I'll hand it over.

Jon Rigby

Thank you, Mark. We're going to move to Paul Redman at BNP Paribas.

Paul?

Paul Redman

Hi, guys. Thank you very much for your time.

Just two, please. First was, you achieved €4 billion of cash initiative benefits in 2025.

I wanted to ask how much of that is rolled or could roll over into 2026? Secondly, I know people have asked, but kind of and it is early, seeing you've got a Capital Markets Day in a few weeks' time, but I wanted to ask about how you think about allocating to shareholder.

You currently allocate based on a percentage of cash flow from operations, but you've clearly paid above that percentage, and I think part of that has been driven by acceleration of divestments. This year, your guidance is €2 billion of divestments.

I wanted to ask if you still believe that percentage of cash flow from operations is the appropriate way to allocate cash flow to shareholders. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei

About the cash initiative, you've seen that we executed, I think that there is a lot of evidence through the results that we achieved, that we started with 2 billion, we raised to 3, and then €4 billion, and we performed. Most of that are one-off factor that doesn't mean that they will be reverted, but actually will be rolling, we are executing our cash management in a different way than before, optimizing the time-to-market of this cash needs, and there were a lot of opportunity.

We continue to study, because I believe that, generally, in managing a huge amount of cash in a company as Eni, there is still a lot of pockets or upside that have to be discovered. Is a sort of treasure search that we look for.

We do expect something also, but this is probably we have to wait a bit, 3 weeks, for additional disclosure. On the cash flow from operation reference, the idea of having cash flow from operation as a starting point for distribution is because we want to put the shareholders at the top of our priority, the first line of cash flow is the cash flow from operation pre-working capital, and clearly there is all the other factor that come later.

The free cash flow could be another way to distribute. Clearly you have to change the percentage, because you are speaking about different absolute figures, but at the end of the day, the logic of having cash flow from operation is giving the reference in terms of priority versus the distribution line.

We will see again also in the next Capital Market Day what will be the announcement and what will be eventually the percentage that we allocate.

Jon Rigby

Thank you.

Paul Redman

Thank you, Paul.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Paul. We're going to go to the last question.

We've found Alastair. Al, are you around?

Al at Citi Group.

Alastair Syme

I'm here. Thanks, Jon.

Thanks for coming back. Yes, there's been a lot of commentary in Italy and across the European Union about the European carbon scheme, the ETS.

You have a foot in several camps here. You're a carbon emitter, you're a power generator, you've got a CCS business.

Can you give us a sense of where you think the political discussion is and what, if any, changes you would like to see? If I could poke in a second question, do you have any update on the well you're drilling offshore Libya?

Thank you.

Guido Brusco

Libya offshore, we are currently drilling one exploration well and will announce results when they become available, of course. No,

Claudio Descalzi

no, I think that we are very ready to talk about drilling, reservoirs, explorations, and all what you want. On ETS, honestly, we cannot give you a lot of lights.

Is a tax that we pay. I think, I don't know, honestly, there is a big debate today because in Europe the industry is suffering a lot.

It's not growing. As, on the contrary in the country, they are squeezing the industry in Europe with all the different kind of taxes and green deals that impact negatively all the kind of industry.

ETS is one of these taxes, and Europe is the only country that apply these taxes, and it's very high level. When we talk at competition with the rest of the world, is not easy to compete when the other are not really applying the same kind of rules.

That is what I can say. I'm not want to enter in any political debate.

It's not our business. I prefer to increase production and get good results for my company, instead to cry about the taxes I'm paying.

Thank you.

Alastair Syme

Claudio, can I ask, does it make you think differently about putting capital on the CCS business, given that there is a potential the legislation could change? No,

Claudio Descalzi

I think that the change has been made already. Is in taxonomy, and there's been accepted at least at the moment in Holland and especially in UK, and now in Italy.

We are at least three country where the CCS can be developed. In UK, they made a big, I think, effort for the future, and for that reason now the investment started, and also the project has been sanctioned.

In Holland, I think that is going to follow. Italy, we are very close to have a new low, but we have a huge amount of potential to be exploited.

We constitute the company. We already got interest from investors, and we are already an investor with us in the company.

I'm positive, and Europe, after years, now they accepted this important tool to reduce CO2 emissions. Clearly the CCS is the counterpart of the ETS, because the CC, the capture now is not matched yet, but now with the ETS that is close to 90 or between €80 and €90 per ton, I think that the CCS based on the existing assets, not on new development, is very good.

Is from economic point of view, is very positive.

Alastair Syme

Thank you.

Jon Rigby

Thanks, Claudio. Thanks, Al.

That brings us to the end of the call. Thank you very much for your attention, both today and through 2025, and we look forward to speaking to you all in greater detail on the strategy and the new plan, on the 19th of March.

We'll see you all then. Thank you very much.