Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.

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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 12, 2026

Operator

Good morning, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the MPS Group first-quarter 2026 presentation.

As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Luigi Lovaglio, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager. Please go ahead, sir.

Mr. Lovaglio, perhaps you have your line on mute?

Luigi Lovaglio

Yes, thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining our first-quarter results presentation.

This was an a strong quarter with disciplined execution and clear strategic momentum. We enter the next phase with fully established governance and strong strong delivery.

Sorry, I understand some technical problem. I will start again.

Good morning. Good morning, and thank you for joining our first-quarter results presentation.

This was a strong quarter with disciplined execution and clear strategic momentum. We enter the next phase with fully established governance, aligned priorities, and strong focus on delivery.

The newly appointed board ensures continuity of leadership while strengthening our collective expertise and execution capabilities. It brings together high-qualified professionals with complementary skill sets, reinforcing our ability to navigate complexity and deliver on our strategic commitment.

The message is simple: uncertainty is behind us, execution is now the focus. The Mediobanca integration remains central, progressing in line with plan and supported by clear operating model designed to preserve brand strength while capturing the full value of our high-quality talent base and unlocking synergies and scale.

This is an execution-led transformation, with clear milestones, accountability, and quarterly measurable outcomes across our five business lines. Q1 results validate the strategy: high-quality, well-diversified revenues mix, improving profitability, tight cost discipline, strong capital position, and leading shareholder returns.

At the core remains our franchise strengths: a broad and resilient client base across families, entrepreneurs, SMEs, corporates, and local communities, supported by consistent high-quality service model. We are building a more diversified, more resilient banking group while remaining firmly anchored to our identity and to the needs of over 7 million clients.

Let me now turn to the key highlights. This quarter demonstrates earnings momentum with visibility and repeatability.

We deliver €521 million net profit and €911 million profit before tax, up by 15.6% quarter on quarter and 6.7% year on year on a pro forma basis. Operating leverage is unmistakable.

Gross operating profit exceeded €1.1 billion, up 8.4% quarter on quarter. Revenues increased 3%, costs declined 3.1%, and the cost-income ratio improved to 44%, down 3 percentage points versus last quarter.

Commercially, growth is broad-based. Loans reached €129 billion, up 1% quarter on quarter and 5.2% year on year, supported by €1.7 billion of new mortgages and €2.7 billion of consumer credit.

Funding is resilient. Direct funding is stable at €106 billion, and indirect funding stands at €185 billion, up €12 billion versus March 2025.

Asset quality remains strong. Cost of risk is 42 bps.

Gross NPE stock is down to €3.7 billion, with ratios at 2.5% gross and 1.3% net, and coverage up to 50.6%. Capital is a differentiator.

Core Tier 1 is 15.9%, even after 100% payout accrual and risk-weighted asset growth. Critically, integration execution is on track.

The merger was approved on 10 March 2026, with eight workstreams, 50-plus projects, and 300-plus colleagues mobilized, and synergies progressing as planned. Let me now go one level deeper, starting with profitability.

Net profit in the quarter was 20- €521 million, but it reflects tax effects and PPA adjustments, which limit like-for-like comparability with prior periods. The cleaner profitability indicator this quarter is profit before tax: €911 million, up 15.6% versus Q4 and 6.7% year on year on pro forma basis.

That uplift is driven by operating performance, core revenues, cost discipline, and a well-contained risk profile. We are strengthening the bank's run rate while executing the integration.

Now let's look at operating results that best captures the dynamic. Net operating profit was €947 million, up 9.5% quarter on quarter, reflecting strong operating momentum and improving earnings quality.

Performance was driven by positive revenues mix dynamics and tight cost discipline, with a stable risk profile. Year-on-year growth of 3.4% confirms strength and consistency of our earnings trajectory.

Let me now show how this translates into operating leverage. Gross operating profit was above €1.1 billion, up 8.4% quarter on quarter.

Revenues rose 3%, while operating costs declined 3.1%, which is the definition of positive jaws. As a result, the cost-income ratio improved to 44%, down 3 percentage points versus Q4.

Year on year, gross operating profit was up 4.3%, confirming the solidity and diversified business model, even in a complex environment. This matters for integration, because synergies are delivered by a culture of cost ownership and performance management.

Now I will move to the two revenues pillars: net interest income first, then fees. Net interest income was €1 billion €36 million, up 1.9% quarter on quarter.

The increase came from improving commercial spread and higher lending volumes, fully aligned with our strategy. Year on year, net in- NII was stable, showing resilience, supported by volume growth and proactive management of funding costs.

You can see that in commercial spread dynamics, this trend, with disciplined pricing on both lending and funding. Beyond the current-quarter dynamics, the combination with Mediobanca structurally reduces interest rate sensitivity, now at around €50 million for 100 basis point, strengthening earnings and the stability of our earnings across rate scenarios.

Fees and commission were €618 million, up 2.8% quarter on quarter. The most important point is mix.

Wealth management fees increased 7.6% quarter on quarter, reflecting targeted commercial focus on strategic areas. Commercial banking fees show some seasonality effects quarter on quarter, and the year on year reflects the normalization of the Anima contribution.

The headline is: our growth engines are working, particularly in wealth and advisory. This connects directly to the Mediobanca logic.

Integration expands products capability and distribution reach, accelerating fee capture through cross-selling. Let's now look what sits behind this in terms of commercial momentum.

This quarter confirms the strength of our franchise. Total financial assets were almost stable quarter on quarter, despite market turmoil.

Wealth management gross inflows increased by close to 10% quarter on quarter. On lending, we originated €1.7 billion new retail mortgages and €2.7 billion of new consumer finance in the quarter.

Now let's translate momentum into the balance sheet, starting with customer loans. Customer loans were €129 billion, up 1% quarter on quarter.

Growth is driven by the quarter's production already discussed and is well supported across business lines. On year-on-year basis, loans increased 5.2%, with contribution from all businesses.

This is important: the growth is broad-based, not concentrated in a single segment. It reinforces our integration strategy.

We are scaling a multi-business platform while maintaining consistent underwriting discipline. Now moving to the liability side, direct savings and funding franchise strength.

Commercial direct savings were €106 billion, showing resilient dynamics quarter on quarter. Since March 2025, we grew direct savings by €4.6 billion, a strong indicator of customer trust and franchise quality.

In today's environment, funding stability is strategic. It protects margin, supports liquidity, and reduces sensitivity to market funding.

It indeed gives us, additionally, optionality as we integrated. We can optimize product mix, deepen primary relationship, especially in premium and private segments.

Now let's look at indirect funding, where fee momentum and client engagement are most visible. Indirect funding was stable at €185 billion quarter on quarter, despite market volatility.

Both asset under management and as- under asset under custody held up very well in a challenging macro and geopolitical environment. Since March 2025, indirect funding is up €12 billion, mainly driven by asset under management, confirming strong commercial focus and asset-gathering capacity.

This delivers stronger revenues quality, with greater fee capacity, deeper advisory, and ex- enhanced client economics. Integration further strengthens this by the expanding capabilities and brand reach in wealth and advisory.

Let me now return to efficiency. Operating costs were €859 million, down 3.1% quarter on quarter.

Both components contributed: HR costs declined 3.2%, and non-HR costs declined 2.8% versus Q4. Year on year, costs were up only 1.1%, despite labor contract renewal impacts.

That is disciplined cost control, without starving the business of investment. From integration standpoint, cost discipline also how we protect synergies delivery.

Now let's move to asset quality and risk. Asset quality remains a clear strength.

Gross NPE stock is €3.7 billion. The gross NPE ratio is 2.5%, and the net NPE ratio is 1.3%.

Coverage increased to 50.6%. Cost of risk is 42 bps, stable versus last quarter.

We are protecting balance sheet quality as we integrate. Now on to liquidity and funding resilience.

Our liquidity profile is sound and conservative. Counterbalancing balancing capacity is €49 billion.

72% of the stable funding is represented by customer deposits. The LCR 157%, despite lower ECB funding, now only €6.5 billion, down €3.5 billion versus December 2025.

The NSFR is stable at 121%. Now to capital.

We ended the quarter with a Core Tier 1 ratio of 15.9%. That is after accruing net profit for dividend distribution and absorbing risk-weighted asset growth from IRB models updates and the new loan production.

Moreover, there is a temporary impact connected with increased value of Generali for the profit of the period. This is what I would call a best-in-class capital buffer.

It provides strategic flexibility. We can invest, integrate, and sustain attractive shareholder remuneration.

Now let's move to Mediobanca's quarterly performance and to the integration update. Mediobanca delivered net profit of €323 million, with profit before tax at €447 million, up 19% quarter on quarter.

Commercial trends were overall positive, and we are seeing first benefits from synergies. Revenues increased 5% quarter on quarter, with NII up 3%, fees up 6%, and strong trading supporting other income.

The cost-income ratio improved to 41%, down 5 percentage points quarter on quarter, and Core Tier 1 stands at 15.7%. In wealth management, total financial asset are €114 billion, up 4% year on year, driven by asset under management, up 7% year on year.

In CIB, activity has reaccelerated in recent months, with growth returning across all major product lines, with advisory fees back to last year level, and sound pipeline with ECM and DCM providing positive contribution with high markets activity. Now let me briefly return to private banking.

Q1 reflects a temporary dislocation, primarily driven by concentrated banker departures. Since mid-April, however, we have seen rapid normalization in the business, with client confidence returning, the banker base stabilizing, and commercial activity rebounding.

In the last three weeks alone, we have generated approximately €1 billion of potential net new money, largely linked to entrepreneur liquidity events. At the same time, recruitment has restarted with a focus on high-quality senior profiles, with initial hires expected to join from the beginning of next quarter.

As a result, exit trends are improving, and commercial momentum is clearly returning. Structurally, our model remains anchored in the PIB framework, which is unique in Italy, combining private banking and investment banking capabilities to serve entrepreneurs holistically across wealth, corporate transactions, and private markets.

This integrated model supports deeper client relationships, higher-quality flows, and stronger retention, particularly around liquidity events. While Q1 was transitional, we are now seeing stabilization, pipeline rebuilding, and strengthening of our differentiated model, positioning the business for renewed growth.

The same strategic consideration apply to our corporate investment banking franchise, and particular and in particular, to our Mediobanca bankers. The integration creates a fully integrated CIB platform, combining Mediobanca's advisory excellence with Montepaschi lending capacity and commercial reach into a single, unified offering.

We are not simply combining two platforms; we are upgrading the way we win businesses. Let me speak directly to our Mediobanca bankers: this platform is designed to strengthen your competitive position, combining top-tier advisory with execution capacity at scale.

This is especially relevant in mid-corporate segment, where the combination of advisory and lending is most powerful and where the teams of bankers are already demonstrating the strength of this model. In today market, advisory wins when it is backed by balance sheet.

With this combination, every mandate is supported by both, enabling higher conversion, larger transaction, and greater client value capture. This is a clear professional step change: more mandates won, deeper client franchises, and stronger long-term economics.

Let me be clear: you are the core of this franchise. Client trust, mandate generation, and long-term relationships sit with you, and this group is fully aligned to amplify your ability to deliver.

Now we will show how this translates into the combined revenues mix. This slide makes the valuation logic of the group more explicit.

The combined business mix is increasingly weighted toward higher multiple activities, notably asset gathering and wealth management, alongside CIB and consumer finance, while retaining the strength and the scale of our retail franchise. This evolution supports a step-up in earnings quality and over time, a rerating of the group's valuation profile.

At this stage, the representation is intentionally focused on revenues, as integration is ongoing. As we progress with the alignment of system, metrics, and performance framework, we will progressively enhance the level of economic and financial detail by business line, providing a more comprehensive view of profitability and capital allocation.

This will enable the market to better assess the underlying value of each franchise and appropriately reflect the contribution of higher-multiple business within the group. Let me now work through you through the timeline and execution status.

We are on track for effectiveness by 4Q 2026, following a clear timeline of corporate and regulatory steps. Boards approved the merger project and exchange ratio on 10th of March 2026.

Next are the merger resolution in in May-June, and shareholder and regulatory approvals in Q3, and then execution and effectiveness in Q4. The structure is designed to protect value and identity.

Mediobanca merges into Banca Montepaschi, while CIB and private banking are demerged into a wholly owned company named Mediobanca S.p.A. Mediobanca Premier's advisor network will be integrated into Widiba, which will adopt a corporate name including the Mediobanca brand, and the Generali stake will sit under the new Mediobanca entity.

Execution is fully mobilized: eight workstreams, 50-plus projects, 300-plus colleagues, and strong PMO oversight. Importantly, over 30% of target synergies are already secured in 2026, supported by granular granular monitoring and discipline execution.

Retention of client-facing talent remains our clear priority, with targeted actions already in place to protect franchise value and sustain revenues momentum. Now let me detail synergies and what we have already activated.

We are confirming synergies targets and phasing, reaching €0.7 billion by 2028, with a clear ramp from 2026 to 2028. The key point is that initiatives activated in Q1 are expected to contribute visibly during the year.

On revenues, we are accelerating structured product distribution from Mediobanca CIB into Montepaschi channels and launching selected advisory cross-selling. On costs, we are renegotiating shared suppliers agreements, launching joint tenders, and removing duplications like info provider, consultancy, and at group level.

On funding, we are realizing benefits from issuances executed at tighter spreads and optimizing the funding mix through 2026 issuance planning. This is what integration execution means in practice: specific action, tracked centrally, and converted into measurable outcomes.

With that, I will move now to our closing message messages and outlook. This was a strong start to the business plan.

We deliver €911 million profit before tax, up 15.6% quarter on quarter and 6.7% year on year, and €521 million net profit, fully in line with guidance. Commercially, the franchise is resilient.

Gross operating profit was up 8.4% quarter on quarter. Loans were up 1% quarter on quarter, driven by by €1.7 billion mortgages, €2.7 billion consumer credit.

Wealth inflow were up 10% quarter on quarter, despite market volatility. On integration, we are delivering early.

Mediobanca is progressing on track, and 30%-plus of target synergies are already secured in 2026, with execution fully mobilized. We confirm guidance with confidence, with 2026 profit before tax expected to exceed €3.5 billion, supported by strong momentum, discipline execution, and sustained delivery of shareholder value.

Thank you. We are now ready to take your question.

Operator

Excuse me, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2.

Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Our first question comes from Antonio Reale of Bank of America.

Hi,

Antonio Reale

morning, all. It's Antonio from Bank of America.

A couple of questions from my side and one clarification. The first question is on the outlook for the year.

You've provided guidance on pretax profit to be above €3.5 billion this year. Can you give us a little bit more color around the moving parts, particularly on fees?

I've heard your remarks on the commercial activity picking up since mid-April, your comment on sort of departures at the private banking side being behind us. Does that mean we can draw a line here and call this the trough point for fees when it comes to an operational standpoint, conscious that consensus for fees is at €2.6 billion this year?

If you can provide a little bit more color around your thoughts for the outlook, that would be super helpful. That's my first question.

My second question is really a follow-up on distribution now that you may be in a position to have a little bit more visibility. You're expected to complete the Mediobanca minority buyout in October, if I'm not mistaken, which I think is consistent with your guidance.

I wonder when shall we expect share buybacks to start, if they can also start before October, and ultimately, what does that mean for your dividend per share from here? You're set to pay 86 cents dividends in about a week or so.

Your expectation for DPS this year. Lastly, if I may, just a quick clarification.

You've given us a clear view of the phasing of your synergies for this year. What is the related integration cost that you're looking to book in 2026?

Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

Thank you for the question. As I was mentioning, the trend from commercial point of view is quite positive because the strength of our franchise is day by day confirmed.

We are again quite positive regarding the trend of fees and commission. We expect to have a trend that, overall, will be in line with the pace that we are reporting in the quarter, as usual, if we take in consideration the third quarter, the August month, we can have, probably, the usual seasonality.

Overall, this trend will continue, and we are going to have a path that, together with the franchise, both franchise, Mediobanca and Montepaschi, will support the growing trend that we are already reporting in the quarter. As far as interim dividend, it's clear that we want first to complete the merger, then we will consider it potentially, of course.

As far as dividend, I think we were already mentioning that we want to have a dividend level broader in line with the one of this year that, as you mentioned, we are going to pay in 10 days from now. Clearly, as we were mentioning, we will provide the additional contribution to the total remuneration, in addition to the profit, with the buyback that we were mentioning already at the time of presenting the plan.

Dividend remuneration, total remuneration shareholder, we feel comfortable to confirm. Then clearly, we are going to have an accretive trend from the next year according to what has been already set in the plan.

Integration cost, we plan originally to have around €300 million of cost, and we believe we can stick to this expectation.

Antonio Reale

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Elena Perini of Intesa Sanpaolo.

Elena Perini

Yes, thank you for taking my questions, and good morning, everyone. I've got three three questions.

The first one is on your sensitivity to interest rates, if you can update us on numbers. The second question is about your wealth management.

We saw that you started to sell Mediobanca SGR products to your network. You also have a strategic partnership with Anima.

If possible, would you elaborate on which kinds of client segments are you going to serve through the two SGRs? About Anima, Banco BPM mentioned the possibility to open the capital of its control company to other partners.

Would you willing to consider this possibility? My final question is about your Generali stake and next year expiry of the JV with AXA.

What kind of thoughts are you making about your insurance business considering the stake in Generali and the deadline that you have next year? Thank you.

Andrea Maffezzoni

Hi, good morning. On NII sensitivity, let me reiterate what the CEO has already mentioned when giving the presentation: the current sensitivity of NII to a parallel shift of 100 bps of the curve is around €50 million at group level, with slightly above half of this amount related to Montepaschi and the rest related to Mediobanca.

Luigi Lovaglio

I was mentioning, and I think this is a positive element of the integration. Clearly, let's start by saying that Anima is strategic partner for us.

We are keeping growing in the cooperation, enriching the products wallet that Anima is providing. We have to say that is a trend that we believe will continue, having this kind of long-term partnership with them.

For the time being, we stick to the partnership, commercial partnership, and we are focused to implement our plan that counts a lot on the contribution coming from the partnership with Anima. Having said that, I think that the SGR Mediobanca is providing a specific kind of products that we were distributing to our network to specific kind of customers, something that is not strictly comparable with the products that we have with Anima.

I think that this kind of offer that we are providing through the product of SGR is not competing with the products that we have with Anima. As far as Generali, I'm just sticking to what I used to say: that it's nice to have as an important, uncorrelated park of revenues on which we count.

Generali is giving also additional optionality in terms of operational partnership. It's clear that we are considering all the opportunities that we can have on the market in terms of product offer, in terms of partnership, as for us, what is real important is the value creation and to provide to our customer the best offer in terms of product combination and to ensure sustainability to our results.

As I was to say, nice to have Generali stake.

Operator

The next question, sir, is from Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank.

Giovanni Razzoli

Good morning to everybody, and thank you for taking my question. Done with the Q1 results.

Two very quick questions. The first one is on the lending volumes in the CIB and consumer of Mediobanca.

They were very, very strong, both of them. We've seen the first impacts of the synergies.

I was wondering whether you can give us a little bit of outlook for the next couple of months on those trends, in particular what is the deal pipeline also for the investment banking going forward, and what's your view also on the volumes on corporate and consumer. The second question relates to the dividend of Generali.

It is 20 basis points of reversal to the CT1 once Generali will pay its dividends, your pro forma CT1 ratio will be above 16%. I was wondering what is the state of the art of the application for the Danish compromise, have you already submitted the request, and what is the reasonable time frame to see whether we can roll Mediobanca set-up to the parent company.

Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

Thank you, Giovanni. As I was mentioning, really what is an important element, as a result of this integration, is the strong cooperation that we have between the CIB, advisory services in Mediobanca and our mid-corporate and even large corporate in Montepaschi customers, right?

I have to say that this is one, in some way also surprising, for the speed we are getting this kind of cooperation, is something that is tangible. Every day, I'm hearing about meetings that the two teams are having with customers, and I think the trend can only improve despite we already are reporting important results.

Mediobanca by tradition is present in all important deals and will keep going in being present because we have a exceptionally high-quality level of professional there. Now they can also enjoy the fact that we can go to customer and support customer with the balance sheet of Montepaschi.

This is a win-win solution that is making the bankers of Mediobanca and our relationship managers very close, day by day, in trying to explore all the opportunities. One of the key elements of this positive integration is coming especially in the mid-corporate sector, where Montepaschi is quite strong, Mediobanca is quite strong because also there we have top-talent bankers, and I believe this is a unique opportunity for growing.

We will see the volumes growing, as well the advisory fees coming from this activity. Quite positive trend, I believe, from now on.

Andrea Maffezzoni

Ciao Giovanni, on the impact of Generali, yes, the Generali participation brings some seasonality to our capital trends, because you have deductions as you accrue net profit, and then you have capital release as you are paid dividends. By the way, this is valid not only for Generali, but also for our insurance JVs with AXA, even if, of course, on a smaller amount.

Then on your precise question, the net expected impact from Generali in the second quarter is around plus 30 basis points. Then on the Danish compromise, we are submitting a question to the EBA.

Giovanni Razzoli

Scusa Andrea, can you remind us the benefit of the Danish compromise, please?

Andrea Maffezzoni

On the Danish compromise, we are submitting a question to the EBA to, let's say, validate the potential approach.

Operator

The next question is from Sofie Peterzens of Goldman Sachs.

Sofie Peterzens

Hi. Here is Sofie from Goldman Sachs.

Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question would be on M&A in Italy.

I know you're in the middle of the process of integrating Mediobanca, but how do you think about M&A in Italy and kind of opportunities here in the next, I don't know, 12 to 24 months? Then my second question would be, I saw that the variable compensation was lower for Mediobanca this quarter, and that was drove some of the cost improvement this quarter.

How should we think about the kind of variable compensation going forward, and what you can do on the cost side? Then just finally, a very short question: how should we think about the tax rate going forward?

What's the normalized tax rate for MPS? Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

I was already mentioning since last year, when we start the transaction on Mediobanca, that I believe size matter in banking, and this is a process that is unavoidable. For sure, there will be a further phase of consolidation.

Having said that, is nice to be in a position where practically we feel that we can be clearly a key actor also in this field thanks to the position we reached in terms of capital, capability to generate value, capability to remunerate our shareholders, and at the same time, having a significant buffer in terms of capital. That we believe that we should be focused at the current stage in completing our integration process, ensuring that the synergies we had in mind will be concretely and clearly realized, hopefully even above the target we fixed to ourselves.

That's why, at the current stage, our focus is exclusively in deliver what we promised to the market.

Andrea Maffezzoni

Hello. On the other two questions, as regards the operating cost trend, actually our guidance on PBT factors in a slight growth year on year of operating costs.

Then, of course, on a quarterly basis, there might be small volatility. On tax rate, at the moment, let's say our best estimate is around 32%.

This might slightly vary depending on the contribution of the Generali net income to the bottom line, because the higher the contribution, the lower the weighted tax rate. At the moment, our best estimate is around 32%.

Sofie Peterzens

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Luis Manuel Grilo Pratas of Autonomous.

Luis Manuel Grilo Pratas

Hi, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions.

My first one is on the 2026 NII, whether you could provide any guidance on NII. Then I have a few clarifications.

On the tax rate, you just mentioned 32%. Could you also confirm what would be the tax rate before any income from associates including Generali?

Then, I also noticed that DTAs this quarter were only like €1 million negative, much lower than the run rate booked last year. I wanted to confirm whether this is a new run rate.

Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

Net interest income, I believe we can confirm the guidelines we provide at the beginning of the year. The trend is expected to be positive.

We think that the contributions in coming quarters will be above the contribution that came in the first quarter, mainly driven by volumes growth and also effective management of spread, particularly we believe that we can have a tight control also on deposit.

Andrea Maffezzoni

On the tax rate, actually calculating the taxable income, the tax rate of what it's not related to Generali is around 36%. Then, when you make calculations, you should take into consideration that some part of the taxable income of the group is abroad, and then the PPA impact is already net of taxes, this makes calculations slightly more complicated.

On convertible DTAs, for the time being, let's say the guidance is confirmed. Here, this is a benefit deriving from the consolidated tax financial statements with Mediobanca.

Then the 2026 amount will depend on the amount of taxes paid in the year, while from '27 onwards, the number should be close to zero.

Operator

The next question is from Noemi Peruch of Morgan Stanley.

Noemi Peruch

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have a few.

The first one is on Generali. In which scenarios would it make sense for you to sell the stake?

Then the second one is on capital. You mentioned the question to the EBA.

I was wondering how long you think that this process could last and what's the sense of the ECB on this from your dialogue. Then finally, a few questions on the private banking still.

In your press release, you mentioned that the exits were mainly on the first part of the quarter, and I was wondering if this is the same for deposit outflows and net new money outflows, and if you can give us an update in terms of deposit volumes and private banking in Mediobanca in May. Finally, if you could give us your estimate of the outstanding outflow risk related to the bankers that have already left from Mediobanca.

Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

Okay. Honestly, I think I'm so focusing in accelerating the integration process that I didn't even think in which scenario can be logical or profitable to sell the stake of Generali.

Honestly, I believe it's better if I postpone this kind of consideration, because now what is important for us is to be focused on commercial activity and integration. As I said, it's nice to have a contribution as this quarter €130 million coming from this stake and potentially to think also on some business cooperation with them.

Taking the point relating to private banking, is really important to consider that in economic terms, the impact of bankers that left are quite marginal, being a significant portion of savings in some way parked on current account or in very low margin products. I believe that we can expect some additional probably decrease of volumes, but I believe is what we consider a normal trend in each situation, together with some flow that we are going to lose, as I mentioned before, we have significant new money that is coming.

I strongly believe that the action that were put in place and the people that we have in private banking already adopted measures in order to have the trend of the stock growing from now on. I think this unique model of private investment bank that Mediobanca enjoys something that can provide further benefit for the stock of savings of private banking.

Is what I mentioned before, already I was informed that we have important net money coming just for few liquidity events connected with some entrepreneurial deals where Mediobanca is playing the role of advisory in terms of entrepreneur, at the same time, the role of getting the benefit of the money that is coming from the sale. I believe the situation is normalized, and as I mentioned before, from now on, I see that we can just observe some natural situation that each bank that has a private banking division is in some way noticed, right?

Is important to underline that the first quarter was a particular quarter, and now from mid-April, the situation definitely is under control and will keep improving in terms of assets.

Noemi Peruch

Thank you.

Andrea Maffezzoni

On the EBA? Ciao Noemi, on the Danish compromise, based on past experiences, it might take some months to get an answer.

We are submitting a question in the next few hours, and the ECB will provide their stance to the EBA. Then we will, as soon as we get a formal feedback, we will give disclosure to the market.

Noemi Peruch

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Manuela Meroni of Intesa Sanpaolo.

Manuela Meroni

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the NII.

The NII trend was positive in this quarter because it was up quarter on quarter despite the fewer days. You mentioned the press release a contribution from hedging derivatives, I'm wondering what was such contribution and if you expect this contribution to accelerate in the next quarters.

The second question is on the cost of risk, 42 basis point in this quarter. I'm wondering if you have seen some deterioration of the asset quality after the end of the quarter and if we can take this 42 basis point as a guidance for the full year.

Finally, a clarification on the Danish compromise on a previous question. If I remember correctly, the expected benefit from the Danish compromise was 50 basis point.

I'm wondering if you can broadly confirm this figure. Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

I will start with asset quality. We didn't observe any signal of deterioration.

Situation is, how to say, from the beginning of the year, almost the same. We feel comfortable to confirm the guidelines we gave with the cost of risk that we said at the level not higher than what we are observing in the first quarter.

No,

Andrea Maffezzoni

on the other two questions, on hedging, no, this is part, let's say, of our overall hedging strategy that led to a reduction of the NII sensitivity. We expect a, I would say, stable contribution over the next quarters from this hedging strategy.

While on the Danish compromise, yes, I confirm we've always given a guidance of around 50 bps positive impact.

Manuela Meroni

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Luigi Tramontana of Kepler Cheuvreux.

Luigi Tramontana

Yes, thank you. Just one question left on the PPA, approximately €60 million this quarter.

If I remember well, you gave a guidance for the full year of €100 million. Are there any one-off in this quarter, or do we have to expect a higher impact for the full year?

Thank you.

Andrea Maffezzoni

Ciao. On the PPA, let's say we said that on average over, let's say, the PPA amortization period, we expected €100 million per year, again on average, and then the time distribution would depend on the amortization of the relevant assets and liabilities.

Actually, the amount is expected to be slightly higher at the beginning of the period, in the first and second year, compared to this average, and this is the first point. Of course, the accumulated amount is the same.

The second point is that in this quarter, yes, there was also a bit of seasonality because a good chunk of the PPA reversal was driven by prepayment on consumer loans, even if, let's say, the overall stock amounted, despite the very good commercial performance.

Luigi Tramontana

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrea Lisi of Equita.

Andrea Lisi

Hi, thank you for taking my questions, some clarifications. The first one is if you can provide us a guidance and an evolution of the integration charges.

Should we expect it mostly in second quarter, third quarter, and if you confirm the €300 million of these integration charges for the year. The second question was on the capital dynamics, if on top of what you have already highlighted during the call, related to the reversal Generali effect, and the movement of the OCI reserves, should we expect also other elements not still highlighted in the quarter dynamic, particularly considering obviously normal risk-weighted asset increase related to volume growth, and so on.

The other question is on volumes. I saw that they increased quite well also on the Montepaschi perimeter standalone.

If you can provide us an indication on what you expect going on, and as well on deposits, which are your expectations. Thank you.

Andrea Maffezzoni

Ciao. On the first two questions, integration charges, we would expect them the second half of this year because, let's say, their booking, of course, is strictly related to the implementation of the relevant actions.

As regards the capital dynamics, in terms of moving parts, of course there is the DTA utilization, and then the other main driver is related to the RWA growth. In particular, I can anticipate that in the second quarter of this year, we expect a small increase of €400 million RWA is related to the implementation of a model change in Mediobanca.

Luigi Lovaglio

Volumes, it's clear that integration and synergies that are coming in integration counts a lot of a contribution of consumer loans. That's why we believe that we will observe a growing trend up to the end of the year as a result of effective commercial activity that Compass traditionally has in the coming quarters and also some synergies that will come according to our plan, because significant portion of synergies are coming in the area of retail banking, where we allocate also from logical point of view, the consumer lending activity.

Combined with consumer lending, we expect to have a growing line, at least with what we reported in the first quarter for mid-corporate, also with some deals, but clearly our focus is what we believe is sustainable: so retail, mid-segment, and then corporate connected with additional business that can come by getting turnover from the customers. In a nutshell, growing trend as a result also of gradual implementation of the synergies we expect, particularly in consumer lending.

Andrea Lisi

Thank you, and sorry, a follow-up on deposits, what are your expectations? Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

Sorry. I forgot about that.

It's clear that for us we consider deposit like a raw material for an industry. For us are key.

Clearly, we have to manage trade-off. While on retail and small business, it's crucial to have deposit, we have a tactical approach as far as concern large corporate, where the trade-off between price and volumes are always taken in consideration, as you see, we don't have any issue in terms of liquidity.

That's why I have to say retail and small companies, the trend should be growing, as this is not affecting particularly the spread, while on large corporate, we will see time to time. Anyway, in general terms, we expect deposit to grow.

Andrea Lisi

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Hugo Cruz of KBW.

Hugo Cruz

Hi, thank you for the time. I have quite a few questions.

First on the NII, your sensitivity seems quite low. Given that everyone expects rates to go up this year, I was wondering how we could see that playing out in your NII line, when could we see a positive impact from the higher rates this year, assuming they happen in June.

Then if you could increase your sensitivity over time to take advantage of these rate increases. That's the first question.

Second, on opex, I was wondering with retainers, is there anything booked already? I think your guidance for the full year was clear, but I was wondering if that includes some sort of one-off costs with retainers either already in Q1 or later in the year, if you could quantify that.

Then a question on the PBT guidance, above €3.5 billion, is that before or after the restructuring costs? Then finally, the interim dividend, I understood that you said you could pay an interim after the delisting of Mediobanca.

I'm not sure if that means there could be an interim already this year or not. If you could clarify that, because I think the market is already pricing in an interim for this year.

That's it. Thank you.

Andrea Maffezzoni

I try to answer, and maybe not in the same order. One of the questions was on the guidance on PBT, whether it was after restructuring charges.

Yes, it is after restructuring charges. Then on cost, there was a question on whether in this quarter, we were factoring one-off costs.

There are a few millions related to retention charges, but they are booked in integration cost, in integration cost line. Then interim dividend after delisting, let's say we are, as mentioned by the CEO during the presentation, we are, let's say, delivering on our timetable.

As regards interim dividend, when we present the first-half results, we will take a view when to start paying interim dividends, whether this year or not. On NII sensitivity, yes, we are managing proactively, let's say, our hedging strategy, considering particularly the amount of new business that we grant every quarter.

We are actually in a position to benefit of increasing interest rates.

Hugo Cruz

All right, thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Lorenzo Giacometti of Intermonte.

Lorenzo Giacometti

Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Actually, one question and one follow-up on capital.

The first question is on synergies. Can you remind us what are the business area in which the majority of synergies will be extracted, and given the working groups already in place, are you seeing some upside potential or downside risk on the overall number?

The follow-up on capital is, can you confirm that the Danish compromise positive impact on capital is not included in your capital projections for the next year? That's all.

Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio

Synergies, most of synergies are expected to come from retail and commercial banking, and I believe they account approximately for 50% of the total. Then we have an important contribution coming for corporate investment banking, as I was mentioning, even above what we were originally expected, originally we plan close to 20%, and I think the contribution can be even higher.

Clearly, asset gathering and management and wealth management, additionally, we will have a contribution can be even around 15%. Then the remaining is connected also with private banking, especially if we consider the activity of private investment banking.

Overall, this distribution can slightly change, especially if we are observing this positive trend on corporate investment banking. This can be also on the top of the €700 million if we are capable to accelerate even more than what we're doing now this kind of cooperation, full-fledged service that we can provide to our especially mid-corporate customers.

Andrea Maffezzoni

I will take the question, Andrea. Positive impact on Danish compromise is not considered in any of our projection, as we were clearly mentioning at the time of presentation our business plan.

Lorenzo Giacometti

Thank you. For any further questions, please press * and 1 on your touchtone telephone.

Operator

Mr. Lovaglio, there are no more questions registered at this time, sir.

Luigi Lovaglio

Thank you very much to all of you and looking forward to meet you again in August. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.