Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the analyst call. The conference will be recorded.
At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation.
Let me now turn the floor over to Elke Brinkmann, Head of Investor Relations.
Elke Brinkmann
Good afternoon, and welcome to our Q3 2025-2026 conference call. We will walk you through the results for the first nine months of our fiscal year.
With us on the call are our CEO Toralf Haag and CFO Steffen Hoffmann. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.
If you would like to ask a question during the Q&A session, please use the combination star nine pound key sequence. Before we start, let me draw your attention to our disclaimer.
We will make forward-looking statements today. These are based on current plans and expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Actual results may differ materially. That being said, let me now turn the floor over to Toralf Haag.
Toralf Haag
Thank you, Elke, and good morning and good afternoon from sunny Hamburg. Before we dive into the details later in the presentation, let me provide you with a high-level overview of the performance in the first nine months.
Operating EBT increased significantly by 31% to €374 million compared to the previous year, in line with expectations. Operating EBITDA came in at €570 million.
The improved performance in the first nine months was supported by markedly higher earnings in Q3 of fiscal year 2025-2026, where operating EBT came in at €149 million, a 23% increase versus Q2 of the current fiscal year. Net cash flow was -€28 million, considerably below last year's €357 million.
This is mainly due to the temporary build-up of the intermediate product inventories to supply the phase commissioning of the expanded tankhouse in Pirdop. As Steffen has highlighted, the increase in inventories is a temporary effect, which, by the fiscal year-end, we expect the net cash flow to be above the prior year level of €677 million.
As alluded to in our Q2 analyst call, free cash flow before dividend came in as expected significantly negative as at -€365 million compared to -€211 million last year. Based on our latest planning, we continue to expect a free cash flow before dividend to break even, at a minimum, for the full fiscal year 2025-2026.
Operating return on capital employed increased to 9.4%, up from 9.1%, reflecting improved earnings performance and partly offset by the temporary inventory build-up. In light of the improved results after nine months and our current planning, from today's perspective, we anticipate operating EBT to come in around the upper end of the forecast range for the 2025-2026 fiscal year.
Let us now have a look at how the market environment developed over the last quarter. Against the backdrop of an exceptionally tight market environment, sulfuric acid was one of the most supportive earnings drivers during the third quarter, as the ongoing Middle East shipping restrictions and the Chinese export ban for sulfuric acid are lifting prices to new highs.
European spot copper premiums remained at high levels, supported by healthy demand for refined copper. In recycling markets, spot refining charges for scrap number two stayed above prior-year levels, despite a moderate easing during the quarter.
By contrast, concentrate markets remain very challenging. Spot TCRCs for copper concentrates declined further and remained under pressure, as smelter demand continues to outpace mine supply.
With regard to the price environment of our key metals, copper continued its upward trend during the third quarter. This was supported by robust demand expectations and a constructive market backdrop.
Gold and silver remained at historically elevated levels as well, although both metals saw some consolidation compared to the exceptionally strong levels reached earlier this year. The euro-US dollar exchange rate fluctuated during the quarter, but remained within a relatively narrow trading range.
As always, bear in mind that there is no direct one-to-one relationship between spot price movements and our reported earnings. As part of our exposure are hedged, and some effects materialize with a time lag.
Now, I would like to hand over to Steffen. He will walk you through our performance in the third quarter and the financial results for the first nine months for the fiscal year.
Steffen Hoffmann
Thank you, Toralf. Good afternoon and a warm welcome from my side as well.
Let me start with the key figures for the third quarter. Overall, Q3 marked another step-up in profitability.
Operating EBT increased to €149 million, up 23% compared to the previous quarter. Apart from achieving a higher metal result, we leveraged the opportunities of the tight sulfuric acid market earlier than we had hinted at in the last conference call.
Along with improved recycling RCs, these positive earnings contributions compensated for the drop in concentrate TCRCs. Net cash flow amounted to -€189 million compared to +€169 million in Q2.
Cash generation remains a key priority for us. However, in the last quarter, we built inventories to ensure a smooth ramp-up of our strategic projects.
In addition, we had some seasonally higher levels of finished goods. Thus, the weaker cash flow should be seen as a temporary effect that should be reversed by the end of the fiscal year 2025-2026.
Looking at page 7, let's switch to the nine-month overview. Group revenues increased by 29% to €17.8 billion, mainly reflecting higher metal prices and solid operating performance across the business.
Operating EBT increased by 31% to €374 million. The earnings drivers in the first nine months were largely consistent with those seen in Q3.
Higher contributions from the metal result, recycling activities, sulfuric acid, and copper products more than compensated for the continued pressure on concentrate TCRCs. As mentioned for Q3, net cash flow was impacted by temporary inventory effects in the third quarter, and therefore, amounted to -€28 million compared to +€357 million in the prior year.
Operating ROCE improved to 9.4% from 9.1% and increased for the third consecutive quarter, supported by the strong earnings momentum, despite an increase in capital employed. Coming to our sources of income, you will see that gross margin increased to around €1.7 billion, up by roughly €140 million versus the prior year.
The increase was driven not only by higher copper and precious metal prices, but also by a strong operational performance in the first nine months of fiscal year 2025-2026, as higher production volumes across the group provided an additional uplift. Please bear in mind that the same period last year was impacted by the planned maintenance shutdown in Pirdop.
The metal result increased its contribution from 37% to 43% of gross margin, benefiting from higher metal prices and the stronger production performance. In contrast, the share of TCRCs and recycling RCs declined from 27% to 21%.
As expected, the tight concentrate market weighed on earnings, although recycling charges developed more favorably and partly cushioned the impact. Products and premiums remained broadly stable at 36% of gross margin.
Healthy demand for copper products and a stronger sulfuric acid contribution helped offset the headwinds from raw mat markets. Overall, this development illustrates the strength of our multi-metal business model.
Pressure in one earnings component can be compensated by opportunities in others. Page 9, let's now dive into the Multimetal Recycling segment.
The segment generated a gross margin of €589 million, an increase of €87 million compared to the prior year. Within the gross margin mix, the metal result increased its contribution from 46% to 51%, benefiting primarily from higher prices for gold, silver, and copper.
The share of refining charges decreased from 44 to 39%, which is mainly due to the shifted distribution of the gross margin drivers. On a higher gross margin basis, refining charges still contributed a higher absolute earnings amount than in the prior year.
Products and premiums remained stable at 10% and continued to provide an additional earnings contribution. The stronger earnings profile translated into operating EBITDA of €162 million, up from €97 million, while operating EBT increased to €87 million from €36 million.
Importantly, operating ROCE improved to 3.8% from a low 0.6%, reflecting the improved earnings performance despite continued growth investments and an elevated capital employed. Turning now to the performance of the CSP segment.
The segment generated a gross margin of more than €1.1 billion, an increase of around €50 million compared to the prior year. Products and premiums remained the largest earnings contributor, with a share of 50%.
This is broadly in line with last year, highlighting the continued strength of our copper products and sulfuric acid businesses. The metal result increased its contribution from 30—32 to 38%, benefiting from higher copper and precious metal prices.
As expected, contribution from treatment and refining charges declined from 19 to 12%. Despite higher production volumes, we were faced with softer TCRC levels that gradually roll over into our contracts, although not to the same extent as the development we showed earlier for the spot market.
Concentrate throughput increased to 1.9 million tons, while sulfuric acid sales rose to 1.8 million tons. The increase in sulfuric acid earnings reflects both higher volumes and higher prices.
The volume increase benefited from the absence of the Pirdop maintenance shutdown, which was carried out in the prior year, while higher sulfuric acid prices started to contribute more meaningfully to earnings in Q3. As a result, for CSP, operating EBITDA increased to €461 million from €436 million, while operating EBT rose to €355 from €342 million.
Operating ROCE came in at 15.5%, below last year's 17.6%, which was mainly driven by an increase in capital employed of around €200 million. Coming to page 11, let's now take a look at cost development in the group.
Total costs edged up by about €60 million, 4% increase, to €1.48 billion, largely on account of footprint expansion. The main driver was higher scheduled depreciation and amortization of €37 million, reflecting our investment activities and the ramp-up of strategic projects.
The uptick in personnel cost is also, in part, attributable to our increased footprint and the associated higher average headcount, as well as to general wage inflation. Other operating expenses decreased slightly to 20% of total costs, with logistics and administrative costs being the largest components.
With a share of 9%, energy costs were broadly on par with the prior level, thanks to an effective energy management and hedging. On to the cash flow bridge on page 12.
Starting with operating EBITDA, which was at €570 million, offset by a €525 million increase in net working capital, which reflects the impact of higher metal prices, seasonal effects, and the ramp-up of our strategic projects. Aurubis has a track record of generating reliable cash flows.
However, as we regularly highlight, cash flow at any reporting date can be influenced by temporary balance sheet effects. Including tax payments of €73 million, net cash flow amounted to -€28 million, compared to +€357 million in the prior year.
Cash outflow for investing activities totaled €322 million and was primarily related to Aurubis Richmond and the new precious metals refinery in Hamburg. As I have mentioned during the Q2 conference call, we expected a significantly negative free cash flow for Q3 of this fiscal year 2025-2026, mainly due to temporary inventory build-up in connection with the phase commissioning of the tankhouse expansion in Pirdop, as well as normal seasonality.
In light of this, the free cash flow of -€365 million came in as expected. Cash generation remains a key management priority, and we continue to expect net cash flow for the full year to exceed the prior-year level.
We also remain on track to achieve a free cash flow before dividends at least at break-even level for the full fiscal year. After P&L and cash flow, let me briefly touch on our balance sheet and key financial ratios.
The equity ratio stood at close to 49%, compared to around 56% in the prior year. While the equity increased by more than €250 million, the mentioned increase in balance sheet in total more than compensated for this effect.
For the full year, we expect the KPI to be closer to the level of the previous year. In consequence of the change in the net financial position, our debt coverage increased to 1.0 from 0.6 in the prior year, which is still well below our target of not more than 3.0.
Considering that we are executing one of the largest investment programs in the company's history, a ratio of 1.0 remains very moderate and underlines the continued strength of our balance sheet. Capital expenditure decreased significantly versus last year, reflecting that the strategic CapEx program is almost behind us.
Capital employed increased by around €630 million to €4.8 billion, reflecting both our strategic growth investments and the temporary working capital build-up, which we highlighted earlier. Let's now turn to the outlook for the key drivers of our business for the remainder of the current fiscal year 2025-2026.
Overall, the raw material markets remain competitive, but manageable. Our diversified sourcing setup and long-term supply relationships continue to support stable operations, despite challenging market conditions.
Concentrate markets are still the most demanding area. We continue to expect concentrate availability to stay tight, and TCRCs to remain under pressure, as global smelting demand continues to exceed mine supply.
In recycling markets, conditions remain broadly stable. While a modest seasonal decline in availability is typical towards summer, we currently see no material change in the overall supply situation and continue to view recycling markets as supportive.
Regarding the euro-US dollar exchange rate, we maintain our previous view, despite some fluctuations in the last quarter. The outlook for sulfuric acid remains highly favorable.
Given the Chinese export restrictions and ongoing logistical disruptions, we anticipate the current market environment to prevail. Metal prices continue to provide support, particularly for copper and precious metals, and demand for our copper products remains healthy.
Thus, the outlook remains intact overall, as we are actively navigating challenges. Based on our performance of the first nine months of the fiscal year, we confirm our full-year guidance of €700 million to €800 million operating EBITDA, and €425 million to €525 million operating EBT, and expect the EBT to come in at the upper end of the guidance range.
For the operating ROCE on group level, we maintain the communicated level between 10 and 12%. For net cash flow, we expect to be above last year's level, as the previously discussed temporarily higher inventory levels should be reversed until fiscal year-end.
Following our net cash flow guidance and the projected reversal of inventory build-ups, we also continue to anticipate a free cash flow before dividend at least at the break-even level, for which we see ourselves being on track. Still, please bear in mind that the usual working capital fluctuations in high metal price environments may affect our free cash flow at the balance sheet date.
Having outlined all of this, let me remind you that all of these guidance figures are built on our current market assumptions, as usual, and do not account for major, unforeseen disruptions. With this, I'd like to hand back over to Toralf.
Toralf Haag
Thank you very much, Steffen. I would like now to turn to our strategic projects and start with Complex Recycling Hamburg, where we have reached an important milestone during this quarter.
After first production in May, we officially commissioned the plant and celebrated its inauguration in July. The project was delivered as planned, demonstrating our disciplined approach to project execution.
Since start-up, the ramp-up has progressed well, and we exceeded our internal targets for the first nine months of operation. This success reflects the excellent preparation and collaboration of the teams on site.
We have already reached the targeted feed mix of internal and external raw materials. This is encouraging from both a technical and a commercial perspective.
Looking ahead, we will steadily increase throughput, and we expect the plant to contribute to the group's earnings through TCRCs and metal results inured from complex raw materials. Overall, CRH is proving to be a success, as it strengthens our smelter network by unlocking the unique opportunities it offers.
Let me now walk you through the recent developments in the US. We consider Aurubis Richmond a key pillar of our growth strategy, and step-by-step, we are moving ahead, technically and commercially.
That being said, during the last quarters, we already indicated that ramping up a greenfield smelter is taking longer than originally anticipated, anticipated, as we experienced technical challenges during ramp-up. Accordingly, we corrected the expected EBITDA contribution from Richmond for the fiscal year 2025-2026 to a level below break-even.
The longer ramp-up of key equipment is causing commissioning of both phases to overlap, leading to an overall longer ramp-up period. From today's perspective, ramp-up for Phase 1 will be completed in fiscal year 2026-2027, and ramp-up for Phase 2 in fiscal year 2027-2028, respectively.
Furthermore, given overall given the overall heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the recycling market, raw material qualities and quantities have naturally shifted from the original plan as well, which impacts the technical side to some extent, too. Against the background of the technical and commercial issues, Aurubis Richmond's mid-term earning profiles shifts out by one year.
We are actively addressing both angles, the technical as well as the commercial ramp-up. In light of the longer time needed, we expect that in the current fiscal year, Aurubis Richmond will contribute to the group's earnings to similar degree as last year.
This is baked into today's reiterated guidance for fiscal year 2025-2026, where we see ourselves at the upper end of the 425 to €525 million corridor for the group. For the outer years, positive effects from resulting resulting from higher metal prices and improved commercial teams terms support the earnings outlook, while the outlook while the forecast also reflects the updated assumptions on ramp-up timing, the feed mix, and metal contents.
After full technical and commercial ramp-up, as of today, we expect the medium-term annual EBITDA contribution from Richmond to the Aurubis Group to be in a healthy territory, not exactly as the previous year target as the previous target level, still in the triple-digit million euro reach. As I've stated in the beginning, we're convinced that Aurubis Richmond creates the foundation for us to further grow in the US, and we are managing the technical and commercial complexities of the business.
Finally, I would also like to briefly update you on the tankhouse expansion in Pirdop, another important cornerstone within our strategic investment program. This project is designed to remove a bottleneck in our production network and increase annual cathode production by 120,000 tons.
Construction work and installation of the main equipment have been completed. The gradual commissioning process is now underway, and we expect operations to commence in autumn 2026.
Once fully ramped up, the expansion will increase cathode production and contribute to our gross margin through higher products and premiums, while also optimizing logistics costs. With this project, we add another building block to our smelter network, increasing resilience and seizing opportunities.
Coming to a close, let me summarize the key takeaways from today's presentation. For the first nine months, Aurubis delivered an operating EBT of €374 million, which is 31% above the prior-year level.
Operating EBT in the third quarter is at €149 million euros and is supported by an improved metal result, increased revenues from processing recycling materials, as well as from sulfuric acid and copper products. Our cash flow in the third quarter was temporarily impacted by an inventory build-up, largely in connection with strategic projects, which we expect to reverse until fiscal year-end.
Thus, we maintain our target to achieve a free cash flow before dividend break-even, at the minimum, for the fiscal year 2025-2026. On the back of our improved performance, the group operating return on capital employed increased, while still being dampened by the temporary inventory spike.
With respect to our strategic project pipeline, we continue to make progress. CRH was officially inaugurated.
The tankhouse expansion in Pirdop is close to commissioning, and in Richmond, we are addressing the extended ramp-up and shifted earnings profile. For the remainder of the fiscal year, we expect that higher metal prices, earnings from recycling raw materials, as well as higher contributions from the copper products and sulfuric acid business will mitigate the effects from the challenging concentrate markets.
Therefore, we confirm our guidance for the fiscal year 2025-2026 and expect operating EBT to come in and around the upper end of the forecast range of 425 to €525 million. With this, I would like to hand back over to Elke Brinkmann.
Elke Brinkmann
Thanks, Toralf and Steffen. Before we open the line for your questions, I would like to provide you with an overview of the next events.
Our annual report for fiscal year 2025-2026 will be released on December 2nd, and followed by the Q1 publication on February 4th, and the AGM on February 11th. That being said, I now hand over to the operator for the first question.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star, nine, and pound key on your telephone keypad. If you would like to revoke your question, press star, three, and pound key.
You can also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question. We already have a few questions submitted.
Operator
The first question goes to Deutsche Bank from Bastian Synagowitz. The floor is yours, Bastian.
Bastian Synagowitz
Afternoon, all, and thanks for taking my questions. I've got a couple, and maybe take them one by one if that's okay, and maybe starting off on guidance here.
I guess if we take the upper end of your guidance, it implies a flat pretax of around €150 million in the fourth quarter. I guess you've got the Lünen standstill, which is now completed, which reverses roughly €10 million in earnings.
You got the sulfuric contributions, which will be higher, which you mentioned already, as well as the metal result, just looking at the prices of gold, silver, and copper, I guess there should be still definitely some room to go, considering your hedge duration. I guess all of these are pretty positive drivers and potentially powerful.
You mentioned TCRCs, but I guess those are mostly contracted. What is going against you here to basically still basically just guide for flat EBIT in the last quarter, and what are the points to keep in mind?
That's my first question.
Steffen Hoffmann
Thank you, Bastian. I think it's important to reiterate here that during the course of the year, we've increased the guidance two times.
With this call, we state within the guidance range, but we added the language that we see ourselves at the upper end of the range. We did not say the upper half; we said the upper end of the range.
What we're trying to say here is that we look into a good fourth quarter. We look into a quarter four that should be in the similar ballpark as Q3, but still for the full year within the range at the upper end.
If we look a bit at the drivers here, obviously, sulfuric acid helping a lot, helped quite nicely in Q3, but yeah, there's an upside in Q4 versus Q3. On the metal, for the time being, I would assume it can be similar, Q4 as Q3, on a good level similar.
Same for products, on a similar level, but a good level. RCs similar, on a good level.
Then I think there's two things. One is TCRCs, where we have seen a gradual more difficult situation during the quarter, we bake our assumptions here on the fact that Q4 TCRC impact should be visible versus Q3.
Then, finally, what you always see, at least at our end in the seasonality of costs, in the last quarter of a fiscal year, we would expect that costs are a bit more pronounced, a bit more expelled. Once again, we're trying to send a constructive message here on Q4, and we are quite happy with how the year is evolving.
Bastian Synagowitz
Great. Very clear, thank you, Steffen.
Then maybe moving on to the situation in Richmond, and I guess you basically cut your expectations for the project as most people just turned a bit more positive, given the policy backdrop. I guess there's metal prices, and there's also pretty decent scrap RC levels over in the US.
Some of the factors which you highlighted as to why you're cutting the target here sound a bit more temporary in nature. Which are really the drivers for you to impair the outlook structurally?
Is there also any early indication on where you expect the EBITDA number for the project contribution to go next year? Maybe also just adding to that, has your D&A schedule changed with the delay?
Toralf Haag
Bastian, let me start on the structure. Firstly, like we said in the presentation, we firmly believe that this is the right investment, and that this will significantly contribute to Aurubis' earnings in the future.
The main reason is the technical ramp-up, where we experience some difficulties, which you can say is, on the one hand, normal when you have a greenfield expansion. On the other hand, we had to adapt our technical capabilities also to the feed mix, which is a little bit different in the US than it is in Europe.
We are, I would say, in a learning phase there. We are producing metal, but it's below our expectations.
We are confident that this will improve over the course of the next months. The main reason for the delay is some technical issues we have in Phase 1.
We don't expect that we have the same amount of technical issues in Phase 2 when we ramp that up, because we will learn from Phase 1. The commercial terms, like we said, we are establishing ourselves in the market.
We don't see this as a major issue going forward. We have established relationships with the recycling suppliers in the US, because we had this relationship before, there's long-term trusted relationships.
We are currently well-supplied in the plant, and we continue to play a role in that market, and we are positive on the overall outlook of the recycling market for the future, also in the US, because copper demand is rising, and, as they cannot fulfill all their copper demand by internal sources, not by concentrates and recycling materials. We also think there will be some benefits in the next months by the further tightening of the US government of the export of recycling materials to other parts of the world.
In summary, again, the main cause for the delay is technical issues in the ramp-up of Phase 1. Maybe Steffen to the outlook?
Yeah.
Steffen Hoffmann
Bastian, you asked about, let's say, an indication for an EBITDA for next year. We all know that today is probably not the point in time where we really want to guide for next year, but still, to get into the topic you alluded to, Toralf said in his speech that the earnings profile for Richmond shifts out by one year.
We did start this fiscal year with an ambition to achieve EBITDA break-even for this fiscal year. We stated today that this is not the case anymore.
If you apply this rule of thumb of shifting out by one year, we roughly can say that, obviously, we definitely want to achieve an EBITDA break-even next year.
Bastian Synagowitz
Great. That's helpful.
The D&A schedule, I guess, has not changed versus the original guidance?
Steffen Hoffmann
Right, it has not. Sorry, we were muted here.
It has not changed, that's correct.
Bastian Synagowitz
Got you, okay. Sorry to come back just on the structure shift.
From what I understood, you basically maybe walked back a little bit the €170 million EBITDA contribution target which you had given earlier, and I guess you wouldn't have done that if you would still expect 160 or maybe 150 or whatever. It seems like we may come in below that number.
Did I understand that correctly? Again, from everything you've talked about earlier, these sound all like very temporary basically headwinds, which, I guess, you'll say yourself you'll be fixing over time.
If you walked back the 170, what are the lasting headwinds relative to what you were aiming for before?
Steffen Hoffmann
It's correct that today we are saying that we see the EBITDA contribution from Richmond to the Aurubis Group in healthy territory, but not exactly at the previous target level. You just alluded to the figure, but it's still in a triple-digit million euro region.
With that, we are not saying that it's exactly where this triple-digit million euro region starts, it's somewhere between where it starts and where we initially guided. We would now, as we talk here about, let's say, a mid-term period, and so let's say we talk about the next three years ahead, and I'm sure in this dynamic, but also very promising US market, there will always be some premise changes.
That's why, as of today, we will not shoot exactly for a no-figure, but what we're trying to say, it's below this lower end of what is a triple-digit figure and what has been before. Let's say a double-digit million euro gap between what we had initially said.
What we mention here is based on a view of, let's say, the next two to three to four years that we are basing ourselves on. It would not make sense to look out further into the future.
Let's say this technical ramp-up situation that Toralf has described is probably more a thing of the next two years, and the commercial ramp-up is obviously also a decisive endeavor now for the next two years. This is where we base ourselves.
Perhaps to frame it a bit, cuz obviously, it's absolutely right that we focus here on Richmond, but to frame it a bit, we also want to make the point that with all the strategic initiatives that the company has launched in the last years, we are confident to stay within the envelope of an EBITDA improvement in the mid-term for Aurubis Group of €260 million. Even though we talk today about a certain piece of setback on Richmond, I think it's important to make the point that we are very comfortable as of today with the mid-term 260 EBITDA for the group.
Great, very, very clear, thank you. Then
Bastian Synagowitz
just maybe coming back again to the bigger picture here and the implications for the project. Maybe taking the midpoint of what maybe the new target contribution for EBITDA, and then also considering I guess the last disclosed budget, and cost inflation, and maybe also the higher start-up costs, it becomes technically quite difficult for the projects to still hit the 15% ROCE target which you have on group level.
I guess the project has been footing on the view that there is abundant availability of scrap, and now that has been kind of part of the reason for cutting the EBITDA target. I guess unless something materially changes, the logical conclusion would be that building another recycling smelter in the US may no longer make sense.
I guess what are your thoughts here, and how does this impact your ambition to do another growth project in the US at all? It would be great to have your thoughts on that side.
Toralf Haag
Our outlook on the US market and the evaluation of different strategic alternatives has not changed. The demand for copper in the US will grow strongly over the next years and decades, driven by data centers, energy infrastructure, and defense.
Recycling is and will stay an important pillar to satisfy that demand. Operating a metallurgical plant, we have to, like we said, adapt and fine-tune, but our view on the US market, it remains unchanged.
We continue to explore opportunities to go further in the US, while we're building the Richmond business, and we see US as an attractive growth region. These strategic alternatives, as we said before, consider different alternatives, which also could potentially include another recycling smelting capacity.
Bastian Synagowitz
Okay. Just again from taking the parameters on the existing projects where you have visibility again, you're not hitting your 15% return target.
I guess is then the logic that, again, also the recycling smelter you would only do if you would get government support to drag the budget and capital intensity?
Toralf Haag
We take here more a long-term view, and there could be also synergies between different facilities and other strategic aspects. We see here not only the mid-term view of our return on capital, but also the long-term and strategic view.
Under this consideration, it could definitely make sense.
Steffen Hoffmann
If I may add, Bastian, cuz I think you were also referring to subsidies, right? We have made the point that for Richmond, we basically did not enjoy large-scale subsidy programs that, in the meantime, have evolved.
If we were going on with something, let's say one of our key considerations would obviously be to become eligible to attractive US government support, and that could perhaps bridge a certain gap.
Bastian Synagowitz
Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions.
Operator
Thank you. The next question goes to Bank of America, Jason Fairclough.
Your line is open.
Jason Fairclough
Good afternoon, folks. Thanks so much for the presentation.
I'm afraid I'm going to jump on the Richmond train as well, if that's okay. I'll try and keep my questions kind of short.
Just in terms of the capital employed, and maybe this is one for Steffen, what is the capital employed today for Richmond, and what will it be by the time the facility is fully ramped up? Hello?
Steffen Hoffmann
Jason, we understood very loudly, clearly your question, and I just look at a colleague to give me the figures. If you have further questions, then go ahead with your further ones, and we'll get to you obviously in very few minutes.
Jason Fairclough
Okay. Second question then: so your new guided earnings, triple-digit millions.
I think previously you and I talked about €2,400 per ton of blister didn't feel like it was a credible one. If I pick a number and let's call it €120 million, still €1,700 per ton of blister feels to me quite aggressive versus other recycling operations.
I'm interested to understand why you still think this facility can be so much more profitable than other recycling operations.
Steffen Hoffmann
Jason, I I remember very well the exchange we we had on that and accompanied by a very nice brioche in your office. I remember that well.
If you look if you look at at the US recycling market and and RCs in the US market versus other regions of the world, you definitely see see see a a gap or or let's say a a a uptick on the margin on on RCs in the US, and this is still the case. Actually, when we updated our business case, we were quite happy with the commercial terms we are saying seeing.
What has changed as a part of of the update, and and Toralf has alluded to that, it's rather the mix of the core feed, but it's not the commercial terms. In a nutshell, commercial terms that we're seeing are quite favorable, and and different than in other regions of the world.
Second piece to to your question is that with the setup of Richmond, we we are basically targeting, especially, those pieces of the value chain that are that are quite interesting, and that's why, as of today, Richmond is not going all the way till the anode and the cathode, cuz that that part of the value chain that Richmond is addressing is is the more profitable one. Obviously, metal result and metal price development is really is supporting the case here.
Jason Fairclough
Okay. If we think about the de-rating of profitability—
Steffen Hoffmann
Jason, your question on capital employed for Richmond is around €800 to €850 million.
Jason Fairclough
Thank you. In terms of the de-rating of the profitability, is it higher operating costs or we actually just going to end up with lower blister production?
Steffen Hoffmann
Both.
Jason Fairclough
Both. Okay.
I guess lastly, to come back to this tariff question, where are you in terms of your—
Steffen Hoffmann
Jason, I need to be more precise. It's both pieces, let's say it's higher cost, and it's on the revenue side, it's lower revenues, but it's not lower quantities, but it's lower revenues because of an unfavorable mix.
Jason Fairclough
Should I read into that that there's less precious than you thought there might be?
Steffen Hoffmann
No, that relates to, we need to show a certain piece of flexibility on the input mix, we need to deviate a bit from the core feed we initially had in mind. With, let's say, alternative feed, there is, from a margin perspective, a less favorable mix than in the initial business case.
Jason Fairclough
Okay. Last one, I don't know where you guys are with thinking about tariffs.
If we get tariffs in the US, do you need to think about building a copper refinery? Can you build a 60 or 70,000-ton copper refinery, is that too small?
Toralf Haag
Yes, of course, we can build that. No, we haven't specified the tonnage, but it would be at least that range what you said.
Jason Fairclough
Okay. In terms of, as it stands today, you're shipping blister copper out of the US, and, of course, the blister copper is full of good stuff.
Is there any, let's say, concerns around that from the US administration that they're losing critical minerals to Europe?
Toralf Haag
Jason, the blister we are producing, they have all the valuable metals in it, as like gold, silver, and other precious metals. In order to unlock the value from the blister and to capture the synergy potential that we also ship this to Europe and use the capabilities there, but we also have then the possibility to ship back to the US the finished products.
This is how the whole value chain we envision to work in the future.
Jason Fairclough
Okay. Thanks, I'll let somebody else have a turn, but appreciate the thoughts, folks.
Yep.
Operator
Thank you very much. Just a quick reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star, nine, and pound key on your telephone keypad.
You could also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand. The next question goes to Adahna Ekoku from Morgan Stanley.
Your line's open.
Adahna Ekoku
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions.
I think we've touched a lot on Richmond, but I just have one follow-up on that mix point. Can you just give a bit more detail on what exactly has changed on the mix from your initial assumptions?
Is there anything, especially maybe with regards to policy, that could change or increase your flexibility on the mix that you thought you might have had?
Toralf Haag
The things cannot be isolated, as all the aspects are interconnected, and the market remains dynamic, we deal what we have today. As we have entered the market now on a broader scale, we have built clearer view on the raw material qualities, and which of them fit best in the current operational phase of our plant.
The other raw material streams are mostly alloyed scraps, where different metals need to be separated in a process. We are still in this process.
We are convinced that we have an attractive offering to many of our suppliers. However, we need to bear in mind that existing buyers are adapting their commercial terms as well in order to keep the material flowing.
It's a complex subject. The raw material is complex.
Like Steffen has said, we have some minor deviations in our assumptions or compared to our assumptions in the feed mix. It is, for us, the most profitable, of course, if we have more complex materials which have higher precious metal content, and here we are seeing some deviations, which is a little bit unfavorable, but nothing to be concerned about.
Adahna Ekoku
Thank you. Then maybe just on sulfuric acid, we've touched at the kind of quarter-over-quarter improvement.
Is there any way you can help us to quantify this? Just especially on the contracts, should we still assume that this is 85% contracted, or have you perhaps shifted slightly more to spot pricing?
Then also on this, thinking about the step-up into Q1 as well, is it fair to assume that's similar to the quarter-over-quarter step-up we're seeing this quarter, or how can we compare these?
Steffen Hoffmann
As we have said, for this fiscal year, the majority, around 85% of our contracts for sulfuric acid, the sale of sulfuric acid, have already been contracted. We only enjoy a minor part of our exposure to spot pricing, even though we benefit from it, but it's a minor part.
In the next fiscal year, there's also a certain part contracted already, but there we will enjoy a larger portion of our contracts, where we are negotiating right now in the coming months, to be not at spot rate, but at, of course, higher prices than we have contracted for this year.
Adahna Ekoku
Thank you. Any color on the quarter-over-quarter developments, or—
Steffen Hoffmann
I can give you a bit of color here. I I would I would think that the sulfuric acid piece in Q4 will contribute if if we look Q4 versus Q3, I would see an upside of a small double-digit figure out of sulfuric acid, Q4 over Q3.
That's that's I think what what we can say. Perhaps to give one more data point, for for the full year, for this fiscal year, the full fiscal year, it could be in the ballpark of €180 million out of sulfuric acid.
Adahna Ekoku
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator
Next question goes to Maxime Kogge from ODDO. Please go ahead.
Maxime Kogge
Good afternoon, gentlemen. My first question is a follow-up on the growth project envelope.
Reassuringly, you reaffirmed the target to reach €260 million, and that despite the lowering of the target for Richmond. That implies that other projects are running ahead of expectation.
Can you perhaps shed some light there on which projects are outperforming versus your expectations? I guess CRH is a big building block, but is there any other project that is performing better?
Steffen Hoffmann
Maxime, you're right. We talk about 11 strategic projects.
In the mid-term, the total contribution for the sum of them is the €260 million, which we confirm as well today. Richmond is one of them, obviously the most prominent one, but one of them.
What are other projects and where are they on a contribution? I would refrain from now giving figures on all the 11, but I would love to do it a bit more qualitatively.
The ones that I would like to highlight in terms of upside contribution potential is CRH, Complex Recycling Hamburg that is a very successful project just has started. Another one I would like to highlight is also what Toralf mentioned in his speech is the tankhouse expansion in Pirdop, where obviously the upside is on getting out a significant amount of cathodes, and this coupled with a nice copper price helps us also on the EBITDA line.
Then I would mention two more recent projects that are already ramped up and a few months more already in operations on the Belgian side, ASPA and BOB, that are also now delivering up to their plans and also delivering pieces of contribution that help delivering the €260 million figure.
Maxime Kogge
That's helpful, yeah. Second question is on concentrate TC/RCs.
You've hinted at some structural changes going on there. We've seen actually Antofagasta agreeing on an index-based system for its sales to contracts with smelters.
Let's see what the negotiations around the new yearly benchmark give, eh? This result is expected somewhere in October.
Do you see a risk that the whole market price switches to an index-based pricing systems for TC/RCs? That would make obviously more difficult for you to impose yearly or multi-yearly contracts, which has been your way of operating up to now.
Steffen Hoffmann
Maxime, as we always said, our long-term portfolio and capability to treat more complex materials when it comes to concentrates enables us to get better terms than the spot prices that are indicated on the market. However, we cannot escape the fact that the availability, like you said, on concentrate is tight, and that puts pressure on our terms.
From today's perspective, we need to assume that the negative TC/R environment will play a role in our negotiations for concentrate supplies in the calendar year 2027. At the same time, however, the miners are also looking to secure sulfuric acid supply, where as we said, the market is scarce.
Both markets are somewhat intertwined, and this might be the subject of our talks with the mine suppliers.
Toralf Haag
Mine supply and refined copper production are connected as well, and so this all plays into a role. While we expect that the negative TC/R trend on spot prices will continue for a while, we don't expect their short-term recovery, like we always said, we are not linked to these spot prices when we do long-term contracts.
With the additional negotiation subject of sulfuric acid, we think we have a good basis here to come to, let's say, good agreements for Aurubis in relation to the current market environment.
Maxime Kogge
That's helpful. Just following on that, yeah, you mentioned that the two subjects, the sulfuric acid and TC/RCs, are intertwined.
I would have thought that sulfuric acid was only needed for for leaching operations by the miners, it's not necessarily the same the same miners that need sulfuric acid and those that sell to use the concentrate. Could you share us with us the share of sulfuric acid within your mix that is sold to to to the miners, or is that some somehow a secret?
Toralf Haag
Maxime, we don't give these concrete numbers, but you are right, it's a smaller part of our total sales of sulfuric acid. The share of sulfuric acid we sell to mines is a smaller share.
As the mines, they do both. They do the leaching process, and they also produce concentrates.
Maxime Kogge
I'll stop it here. Thank you.
Before moving on to the last question that's submitted, just a quick reminder: star, nine, and pound key on your telephone keypad for asking a question. You can also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question.
Operator
The question goes to Kepler Cheuvreux, Boris Bourdet. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Boris Bourdet
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my question.
Just a very quick follow-up on Richmond, to check that I understand quickly. Your first assumption was on a certain quality of mix.
Now, my understanding would be that you are missing in this mix maybe some precious metal contents that would explain the double-digit structural decrease in your EBITDA mid-term contribution. That's the first question, just to check.
Toralf Haag
You're right, Boris, on the one hand it's the content of certain metals, but also it's the TC, it's the RCs and other terms and the conditions. It's not only that, but that's also part of it.
Boris Bourdet
Okay. Do you think you might find a solution if the United States government further increases the refrain the capacity to export recycling materials, that you would keep a better a better kind of materials for for for the domestic market that would improve your metrics going forward, or is it is it unlikely?
Toralf Haag
Yes, this would be conceptually positive for us, because it increases consequently, of course, the availability of all sorts of recycling materials, and also of more complex materials. This would be positive for us, yes.
Boris Bourdet
Yeah. Maybe a word on free cash flow: so you're guiding for free cash flow before dividend payment being at least break-even this year, despite the -€365 year-to-date figure.
That means a strong reversal in Q4 for net working capital, I guess, but I was wondering, looking at your CapEx number, it's 373 year-to-date, it seems to be behind the intended number of 60 670. Do you stick to that guidance, or what could be the right number to look at in CapEx, and yeah, that would be that.
Steffen Hoffmann
Spotted, Boris. On the CapEx side, or let's say the cash CapEx, it is not likely that we will let's say spend that much in Q4 that would remain to, let's say, the old targets.
Let's say there as of today, we think that cash CapEx could be probably below €600 million, this will also, obviously, then support the free cash flow generation. Then generally on, let's say, the general improvement on working ourselves down from seasonally high stock levels, we have a clear plan how to reduce working capital and deliver on the free target.
It's about destocking of inventory. It's about selling our copper products into the market.
For example, on copper products, in the summer period, there's less of a production here due to German summer and Belgian summer vacation schedules, we had more on stock. That's kind of a usual thing.
It's about now selling those highly attractive copper products to the markets, being it on the rod and shapes side, being it on the cathode side. Second point is a clear targeted decrease of intermediates.
Let's say we have a clear plan as we speak. Net working capital is going in the right direction.
This, coupled with what you spotted well on let's say the cash CapEx, all that together makes us confident that we will achieve a free cash flow target of at least break-even before dividends here.
Boris Bourdet
Very clear. Thank you.
Last question is on TCs: how much does it represent today of the group's gross margin, and do you confirm it cannot go below zero?
Steffen Hoffmann
On the first piece of your question, you saw that on page 8, from a gross margin perspective, TCRCs, for both businesses, was, let's say, 21%. As we talk about TCRCs, then we focus on the CSP segment, and there on page 10, we saw that the TCRCs for the primary side, this is where the pressure is, were, let's say, only 12%.
I cannot confirm that it will never be zero.
Boris Bourdet
It should never go below zero. We see negative spot rates on the markets.
Is there a possibility that one day your contracts might include negative commercial terms, or do you have a sort of floor?
Steffen Hoffmann
If the spot level is super negative and we will always differentiate ourselves, emancipate ourselves visibly from let's say a more spot market level, but if a spot market level is very depressed, we can also not rule out that it would be zero or a bit below zero, but it will always be significantly better than a spot market level. Very
Boris Bourdet
very helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator
That was the last submitted question. We do still have some time, I will repeat the key combination in case anyone has a follow-up question.
If you would like to ask a question, please press star, nine, and pound key on your telephone keypad. You could also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question by phone.
I repeat: star, nine, and pound key on your keypad. We have Bastian from Deutsche Bank back on the line.
Please go ahead.
Bastian Synagowitz
Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up question.
Just a very quick one on CapEx. Steffen, you mentioned CapEx will now be around 600 or actually below.
Does that mean that the €70 million will be moved to next year's budget, next year will be more like €620 million or so, or is this a cut elsewhere which is sustainable?
Steffen Hoffmann
Bastian, you can rely on our ambition that we want to build the curve of bringing CapEx down, we're not guiding today, but our ambition is that next year should not be above this year.
Bastian Synagowitz
Got you. Thank you.
Operator
Last question from Maxime, ODDO. You are on the line.
Maxime Kogge
If I can stay on the subject of sulfuric acid, because I think you said that you will finish the year with about €200 million of—180, €180 million of sulfuric acid contribution. If we look at the spot prices in Europe, multiply that by your sulfuric acid production, here we are close to $800 million of revenues there, and my understanding is that there are very limited associated costs.
Is that a credible figure somehow if prices stay where they are now, or is there anything we should be aware of to apply some kind of discount to these prices?
Steffen Hoffmann
Maxime, as we said before, the vast majority of our exposure this year has been already fixed or covered by long-term contracts, which were fixed before the sharp increase of the prices for sulfuric acid. Secondly, also when we go into negotiations for the remainder of the part and also for next year, we are, I want to say, always also interested in long-term relationship with our customers.
We're trying to take not too much advantage of the current spot price situation.
Maxime Kogge
That's helpful.
Operator
Thank you everyone for your questions and participation, and with that, I hand over to your host.
Elke Brinkmann
The IR team will of course be happy to answer any further questions you may have. Would now like to close today's conference call, and thank you for your attention.
Enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you, and goodbye.
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