Decisive Dividend Corp.

Decisive Dividend Corp.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 12, 2026

Operator

Good morning. My name is Joanna, and I will be your conference operator today.

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Decisive Dividend fourth-quarter and year-end 2025 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number 1 on your telephone keypad.

If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by 2. We remind you that today's remarks may include forward-looking statements and non-IFRS financial measures that are subject to important risks and uncertainties.

For more information on these risks and uncertainties, please see the applicable sections of Decisive Dividend's news release and MD&A, which are on their website and have been filed on SEDAR. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Schellenberg, Chief Executive Officer, and Rick Torriero, Chief Financial Officer.

Please go ahead.

Jeff Schellenberg

Thank you, operator. Hello, and good morning, everyone.

This is Jeff Schellenberg. I want to welcome everyone to our Q4 and year-end 2025 earnings conference call.

The fourth quarter was a successful finish to a year of considerable volatility. Q4 2025 was the first quarter in Decisive's history with over $40 million in revenue, and was also the second-strongest gross profit and adjusted EBITDA quarter in our history, only bettered by the post-COVID-inflated Q3 2023 results.

These quarterly results reinforce the benefits of the diversified nature of the portfolio of businesses we own and the differentiated products these businesses produce. The $42.8 million in consolidated sales in Q4 2025 were 14% higher than Q4 2024, and generated $7.3 million in adjusted EBITDA, which was consistent with Q4 of last year.

That brought full-year 2025 sales to $152.2 million, which was 19% higher than 2024, and drove a 25% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $25.4 million overall in 2025. Each business vertical realized full-year sales increases in 2025 versus 2024.

The agricultural businesses, which is Slimline's orchard and vineyard sprayer product and IHT, generated a 58% increase in sales relative to 2024, driven primarily by strong order activity at IHT. Our group of wear parts businesses, namely Unicast, Pro-Core, and Techbelt, performed extremely well and achieved a 56% increase in wear parts sales over 2024, driven by both strong belting demand and a significant increase in demand for Unicast cast steel wear parts and valves.

The hearth businesses, which is Blaze King and ACR, realized a 13% increase in sales compared to 2024 on stronger order levels throughout the year. Merchandising product sales were 10% higher in 2025 versus 2024 as Marketing Impact began to integrate its newly acquired Venture business.

Lastly, after a strong first half of the year, the industrial products businesses, which include Northside, Hawk, CMI, and Slimline's evaporators, were impacted in the second half of 2025 by demand declines from certain commercial vehicle and oil and gas customers, as well as lower wastewater evaporator sales, which were reduced after a strong first half of the year. Despite these factors, industrial product sales also grew, with sales being 3% higher in 2025 than 2024.

The improvement in sales and adjusted EBITDA in the 2025 results resulted in a 25% improvement in free cash flow less maintenance capital expenditures compared to 2024, which is our key metric in measuring our dividend payout ratio. This improvement has resulted in our trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio sitting at 79% compared to 96% at the end of 2024, and demonstrates the free cash flow generation capabilities of our business and the sustainability of the current dividend level.

Our leverage ratio also greatly improved from 3.1 times at the end of 2024 to 2.5 times at the end of 2025. Our improved leverage ratio, along with the improvement in our share price over the last year, leaves us in a very good position to fund both organic growth opportunities and support our M&A program, which I will turn to next.

On the acquisition front, we completed three smaller tuck-in acquisitions in 2025, all of which were aligned with our focus of acquiring within the industry verticals we are already invested in. Going forward, our acquisition strategy will continue to emphasize acquisitions within our existing verticals.

The verticals we are most immediately focused on investing further in are the verticals where we've had the most success, namely hearth and wear parts; verticals where we feel there's strong industry economic backdrop and policy support, namely energy, critical infrastructure, and mineral development; and verticals where we feel we are best positioned to support acquisition integration and post-transaction success, namely merchandising and industrial. This approach will allow us to step into best-practice deployment more rapidly, supporting operational efficiency improvement while investing in sales organizations that can support the methodical growth of the businesses we acquire, similar to how we are executing on opportunities in the smaller acquisitions we completed in 2025.

In addition, investing in areas that reduce our exposure to potential tariff and trade headwinds in North America will be part of our near-term focus as well. Within this focus scope, we are encouraged by the M&A opportunities we are seeing that will allow us to pursue this strategy and have both increased financing capacity and improved cost of capital to support further M&A activity.

We are seeing a number of opportunities of increased size relative to the deals completed in 2025, which drives more material accretion to our critical free cash flow less maintenance capex metric, the metric we use to calculate our dividend payout ratio, and therefore a key determinant of our ability to grow our dividend. I want to emphasize how M&A can support dividend increases in my comments here.

Given that we buy businesses at 3.5 to 5.5 times average historical EBITDA, trade at roughly 8 times forward EBITDA, and have a $175 million credit facility that has a 5.2% coupon rate on it, adding earnings through M&A is highly accretive to our free cash flow less maintenance capex metrics per share, which will first support a return to our targeted payout ratio range, which then opens the door to future dividend increases. In terms of our 2026 outlook, we expect to benefit from the investments we have made in new products, sales capabilities, facility capacity, and productivity.

Further, higher energy prices and uncertainty tend to drive strength in our hearth businesses, which provide a source of alternative low-cost, secure energy. Additionally, strong metal and mineral pricing supports activity in our wear parts and industrial businesses, as does investment in critical infrastructure.

While we are facing some ongoing uncertainty, especially in the near term, including the potential CUSMA renegotiation and global upheaval in different regions, and continue to see specific challenges in a few of our subsidiaries, we experienced many of these same factors in 2025, building on our track record of being able to respond to challenges in a way that improves business performance. In addition, we are anticipating a meaningful increase in acquisition activity in 2026 as we continue to see strong traction with exiting legacy-minded business owners who value our long-term buy, build, and hold approach.

As a result, we anticipate an improvement in our results and per-share financial metrics that, we believe, will help support a return to our target payout ratio levels, which will present the opportunity to pursue future dividend growth. Driving long-term improvement in per-share financial metrics is a core priority that we believe will reward shareholders over the long term through the capacity it creates to both support a growing and sustainable dividend as well as value enhancement through share price appreciation.

With that, I'll now open up the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised.

If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the 2. If you are using speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys.

First question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Steve Hansen

Morning, guys. Thanks for the time.

Jeff, we'll start on the M&A side. Just you had some good opening remarks there.

I just wanted to follow up. It sounds like you guys are thinking about the CUSMA renegotiation as part of your M&A process.

It's certainly not going to be the only metric, but how do you feel about developing additional capabilities south of the border relative to domestic here in Canada?

Jeff Schellenberg

Our most recent acquisition, Venture, was in the US, right? Which opened up a door for us to, we have facility in our merchandising vertical now, for instance, south of the border that we can actually supply our customers that buy products that are more display and merchandising type of products out of the US.

That's an example of a recent deal that we've done that supports exactly what you're talking about. I think, there's other areas of exposure.

We've obviously invested in the UK. That's a UK and Europe, probably 10% of our revenue overall.

I think we would view that as an area of focused growth as well, to be thinking outside of the North American market. Then I think domestically, I think Canada is a very investable country right now.

I think with, obviously a large focus on infrastructure and, critical minerals, energy, defense opportunities that, we would see opportunities within Canada as well. I think those are the types of things kind of within the US, outside of North America, and then within Canada that would really be guiding our M&A focus right now.

Steve Hansen

That's helpful. Just in terms of size, I think the last year was really characterized by small, incremental tuck-ins.

It sounds like you might have something a little bit more significant in the pipeline if I'm reading the tea leaves. Is that correct?

Jeff Schellenberg

I think we would like to be doing deals more in the $2 million to $6 million of EBITDA type of range than some of the smaller tuck-in acquisitions that we've done. We think we've added some important capabilities through the tuck-ins that we completed.

For instance, with the belting acquisitions that we did in 2025, we added the ability to actually fabricate the belting systems. Blackburn Conveyors was the business that we bought.

We were working with them on projects where they were fabricating the belting systems and we were supplying the belting for it. It became a very natural kind of tuck-in acquisition again, an exiting legacy-minded business owner who owned that business and was looking to retire and didn't have a succession plan, right?

That was a nice little tuck-in opportunity that added capability that we didn't have before, less meaningful from an overall earnings perspective. We would like to see more of that $2 million to $6 million opportunity, and I'm pleased with the types of opportunities within that range that we're seeing right now.

Steve Hansen

Great. Then just quickly on the margin pressure that you saw in finished products in the period, I think there was a few things that were raised in the MD&A around additional incentive costs and such.

How do we think about that margin profile on a go-forward basis?

Rick Torriero

One of the—this is Rick here, Steve. One of the impacts was Slimline's evaporators sales.

That's they had a large sale of their HDXL product in Q4 of 2024, the comparative period, and that's a 60% to 70% margin product. That was a big part of the compression in that segment for the quarter.

I think, if you look at the year-over-year, it's actually much closer between the two, and I think that's, on an ongoing basis what we would, expect to see on an ongoing basis, absent some of these, these types of project wins. Very good.

Jump back in the queue. Appreciate it.

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star 1 now.

Next question comes from Russell Stanley with Beacon Securities. Please go ahead.

Russell Stanley

Good morning, and thanks for the question. Maybe I'll follow up on the margin question more generally.

Lots of moving pieces here given the number of individual businesses, but you've produced steady improvement in blended gross margins in each of the last couple of years, and I'm wondering how much room for continued improvement you might see just with the base business given the mix of headwinds and tailwinds. Is there room for additional improvement this year, or do you think you're more likely to hold steady?

Thank you.

Jeff Schellenberg

I think similar to Steve's question, our overall gross margins for 2025 were pretty consistent with 2024. Some improvement relative to prior years from there, but don't see really, absent these project wins, I think the industrial businesses that had a decrease in activity have lower margins, gross profit margins, than our finished products as an example and some of our other wear parts products, and so that mix impacts things.

I think there's always mix challenges or, I guess, opportunities in any quarter, but I think overall our margins have been pretty consistent within a percent or two over the last year here, and I think we could see that continuing. One additional comment I'd make to that, Russ, is what we've been doing, and we talk about it in our MD&A as well, is making some very deliberate investments in the sales capabilities of organizations, kind of across the board in our organizations where we've added sales personnel as we transition these businesses from maybe more traditional order-taking type of activities to more hunting type of activities.

That's been a very deliberate investment. You see some of that fruit, to speak, in the growth in sales that we had, obviously a record sales quarter, which is really positive.

That, we believe, is going to help support the scaling of the business along with some of the other investments in capacity of facilities and whatnot that I think will really end up benefiting, as we increase our capacity, what that will also support is EBITDA margin growth, right? I think the gross margin has strengthened, depending on the product mix.

We're continuing to look for, as we think about M&A, we think about proprietary product type of gross margin profiles that obviously illustrate differentiation. We're going to be focusing on that in the M&A front.

We're focused on positioning our businesses for growth, which supports scalability and should impact ultimately the bottom line more significantly, potentially, than the gross margin line.

Russell Stanley

That's great color. Thanks for that.

Maybe just a couple business-level questions. The hearth category, wondering how its performance ranked against your expectations, and can you talk to the response to I think the new product was at work there?

Can you talk to how that performed and how that informs your plans for next year's heating season?

Jeff Schellenberg

I think performance-wise, the hearth businesses had a really good rebound year. Coming out of record-setting 2023 levels based on that COVID demand bubble, as they worked through all of those backlogs coming into 2024, sales were definitely challenged, but I think what we saw this year was a return to more historical seasonality, but real good strength in the business in terms of order levels, both in the UK and here domestically in Canada and the US.

I think these new products will only further support that into 2026. I'd say that business is such a strong gross margin and EBITDA margin profile business that it's just a tremendous supporter of the overall free cash flow profile of our business.

I think we're pleased with the performance in 2025 for that business. In terms of the new products, I think the introduction of those new products, unfortunately, given how highly regulated these industries are, you're somewhat reliant on the timeline of the regulator in getting back to you with approvals for new products.

Obviously, there's some disruption in EPA processes in the US, and so that's delayed our rollout of some of these products into the US market, which is Blaze King's largest market, for sure, I think. The product that we're introduced in the UK is a very different product than that market has experienced previously.

It's the first long-burn stove available in the UK and European market, a highly differentiated product really based on Blaze King technology. There's some element of education that we have to have with customers around the benefits of that relative to their previous experience.

We know and understand the benefit, and it seems like North American customers definitely understand and appreciate and value that benefit, we believe there's going to be similar type of take-up. I think that takes a little bit of time to introduce, and we kind of missed the start of the heating season with that product as well.

In spite of those timing impacts, we see really strong customer reaction to those products as we're involved in different trade shows and whatnot at this point in time throughout the beginning of this year, kind of setting ourselves and positioning ourselves for next year. We're really encouraged about the customer response to that product, and think that's going to be a material driver of new growth in that segment as we move forward.

Another new product that we haven't spent a lot of time talking about is Blaze King's introducing a fireplace product, kind of that is a wider screen, larger kind of insert product that's more in the new product or new home development type of or more material renovation type of market. That's a totally new segment that they've been in before as well, and they're getting really strong feedback on that product as well.

We're encouraged about the new stuff we're rolling out. I wouldn't say 2025 results really were benefited by those products at all, but likely be in a position where 2026 heating season is more positively impacted by the results of those products.

Russell Stanley

That's great. If I could sneak one more in within ag, wondering what the demand picture looks like for IHT.

It's been a great contributor in the past, and wondering how that backlog looks. More specifically, how does that backlog break down between new buyers, new adopters of the products relative to existing customers with follow-on orders?

Thanks.

Jeff Schellenberg

Let Rick speak to the backlog in a second here. What I would say about the performance of that business is, it's a mix of we're continuing to add new customers, including some of the largest pork producers in the US who are replacing previous products, including some of their own that they manufacture, with the product that IHT manufactures.

We're displacing incumbents in the largest customers in the US. Those are net new customers.

We're continuing to add really meaningful large new customers, continuing to support existing customers. There seems to be a return to investment in barn renovations, some barns being built.

Pork pricing has really rebounded very nicely here and supporting that business. We're also very focused on international expansion.

I think we're very North American focused in that product right now, and you look at South America, Europe, Asia, South America is a similar size to the US, Europe is larger, Asia is significantly larger, multiple times larger. We've had some sales into those markets in the past, but just scratching the surface of what's capable there too, and they're facing the same types of issues.

We're really positive about the outlook for IHT and we're beginning trials of their cooling product, which just doubles up our revenue potential from the fairly significant addressable market they have. Really really encouraged about some of the early results out of some of the trials we're doing on that product as well, which will be a meaningful driver of future growth.

Overall very very bullish on IHT and the growth prospects for that business.

Rick Torriero

The backlogs definitely support that. We actually have higher backlogs for IHT at this point this year versus the same point last year.

Russell Stanley

That's great. I'll get back into queue.

Thank you for the color.

Jeff Schellenberg

Thanks, Russ. Thanks, Russ.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is a follow-up from Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

Please go ahead.

Steve Hansen

Oh, yeah, thanks, guys. Appreciate the time.

Jeff, just to focus a little bit on some of the more challenged areas, do you just want to speak just to some of the actions you're taking on the Hawk side and on the Northside business lines? It sounds like you're consolidating two facilities in the once instance, and just trying to understand exactly what that means.

I know referenced at the beginning of the call, the back half of '25 was a little bit slower, and so you've got a few issues there. Maybe just walk us through what the actions are being taken so we understand those for '26 setup.

Jeff Schellenberg

For sure. Definitely saw customers pull back on the heavy commercial vehicle side.

That's really more facing Northside and, obviously, with some of the energy customers as it relates to Hawk. I think we have three facilities at Hawk as of this moment right now, and our focus is on consolidating down to two.

I think that's going to be something that once breakup hits that we'll be in a position to kind of effect that change, which will be supportive of some gross margin improvement and, yeah, reduced overhead in that business, which is, I think, important for a machining business like that. I think the challenge of a third-party manufacturing is you have fewer levers to pull to drive kind of your operating results as you respond to customer demand of products that are owned by the customer, right?

The journey, I think, we're on as a group is to maximize the efficiency of these businesses while also moving towards developing more of our own proprietary type of products, whether it be downhole tools, which is what Hawk's specialty is, but other types of products, even supporting some of our other businesses in terms of the types of products that they can produce. They have some really strong design and engineering capabilities at Hawk that we can deploy and support new product development, including outside of the downhole tool space.

Consolidating some of those facilities, reducing some of that overhead, beginning a journey, which is a long-term shift, right, to more proprietary product type of development and manufacturing is the journey that we're on with that business. I think with Northside, we're in process of moving to a different facility to consolidate their operations.

I think there's opportunities even with some other subsidiaries given their manufacturing strength to help support them. That's a program that we'll be having some further announcements around in the not-too-distant future, but, yeah, excited about some of the steps we're taking there to help kind of utilize some of the best practices and capabilities they have to impact more of our portfolio as well.

We'll talk more about that in the future. Then in terms of Northside as well, we had really good success with onboarding a new customer in 2025 that really helped support that business even though there was a significant decrease in demand for another one.

Northside's hired a new business development individual that's going to be focused on exploiting Northside's expertise in terms of onboarding other OEM type of customers. They've got a real core competency in that area, and I think that's going to be an opportunity for growth and diversifying the revenue streams for Northside as well.

Steve Hansen

Very good. Appreciate the time.

Jeff Schellenberg

No problem, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Christoph Himmelstein, an investor.

Please go ahead.

Good morning, gentlemen. You touched a few times on the CUSMA renegotiation for this summer, and I just wonder what kind of scenarios you're looking at and the potential impact on the existing business.

Jeff Schellenberg

We did a lot of work around this in 2025 just given how volatile, especially the start of the year was last year around this particular topic. I think we're going to be able to leverage off of a lot of the work we did at that point in time as we think about things.

A couple of our subsidiaries, Blaze King and Marketing Impact have US facilities at this point in time, and so that helps manage some of the risk around that. We looked pretty heavily at different types of contract manufacturing opportunities for some of our other products in the US.

We moved a lot of inventory to the US as well in some of our different products. We really refined our paper processes to ensure that we were minimizing kind of the tariff impact on our customers, and we negotiated some pricing changes that reflected our customers bearing some of the costs of the tariffs as well.

I think those will all be some of the same strategies that we used to address any challenges that come down the pipe with respect to anything with CUSMA as well. I think, obviously, 50% of our revenue is exposed to the US right now.

That's where we generate about half of our revenue. We have a variety of scenarios that we ran with respect to our business planning with various outcomes around that.

Then we have these offsetting actions that we took some of in 2025 as we face similar issues, and we'll be prepared to take more of in 2026 if there's an impact that happens, while hoping that the powers that be will be able to achieve an outcome that benefits both markets.

Thank you.

Jeff Schellenberg

No problem, Christoph.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time.

I'll turn the call back over to Jeff Schellenberg for closing remarks.

Jeff Schellenberg

Yes. Thank you to all of you for attending our Q4 and year-end 2025 conference call.

We continue to believe that Decisive's business model, grounded in the acquisition of profitable, low capital intensity manufacturing businesses who produce low-obsolescence products distributed through channels that support reoccurring revenue at disciplined valuations, supports long-term stewardship and positions the company well for sustained growth and yield performance. We look forward to updating you on our progress continuing into the next quarter and beyond.

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.