Securitas AB Class B

Securitas AB Class B

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Feb 09Next Earn

Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptApril 28, 2026

Magnus Ahlqvist

Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to our Q1 2026 report. Before we begin, I would like to welcome Matteo, who joined the group as CFO on April 1st.

Matteo has an impressive track record from a number of leadership roles in finance, but also leading significant businesses. For many years, he spent time with Atlas Copco and more recently with Assa Abloy.

A great addition to the team, and a warm welcome, Matteo. With that, let's go to the performance highlights of the quarter.

On a high level, we delivered good operating margin improvement, earnings growth, and cash flow in Q1, but the top-line growth was below my expectations. The adjusted operating margin improved to 7.0%, and this was supported by all business segments.

This is testament to focused execution, and we have now improved the operating margin 21 quarters in a row. The adjusted growth in the quarter was 2% for the group, and the growth in North America was flat year-on-year, and this was primarily the result of significantly lower installation sales in the technology business.

Importantly, commercial activity in technology North America remained healthy with strong growth in installation order intake and backlog. Looking at the earnings growth, the margin development was an important driver behind the 8% improvement in operating result and 16% improvement in earnings per share on a constant currency basis, and also then excluding IAC.

Q1 cash flow was healthy for a Q1 at 40%, and Matteo will share some more details about this in the finance sections. Our work to sharpen our focus and portfolio continues, and we divested the Global Elite Group in the US and also a smaller part of our technology business in Canada in the quarter, and this means that we are now nearing the completion of the strategic assessment program we initiated a few years ago.

The acquisition of LifeRaft, which is a leading provider of threat intelligence, was completed in Q1, and we are very glad to welcome the LifeRaft team to the Securitas Group, and the intelligence capabilities that they bring are very important for the future. Let's then move to the performance in the business lines and the segments, and we delivered good margin improvement in both business lines with 10.7% for technology and solutions and 5.4% for services.

The real sales growth in technology and solutions was 4% in the quarter. Portfolio growth in solutions and RMR contributed, but as previously communicated, installations in North America had a clear negative impact.

The adjusted growth in security services was 2% in the quarter, and growth was good in Ibero-America, decent in Europe, but a slightly slower start than expected in North America. With that, we move to the segments, and we start with North America as usual.

Here, we recorded good margin improvement, but as commented, flat top-line growth in the quarter. The flat growth was primarily due to technology installations.

Three winter storms in the first quarter had a negative impact on the installations with a number of days where traveling and on-site work was not possible, and this also caused some productivity issues. What's most important though, as I mentioned before, is that commercial activity was good, strong positive year-on-year development in order entry, and also a very healthy increase of the backlog.

The Pinkerton business is a smaller business, but here, we recorded negative growth due to the loss of a large temporary contract, and this also had a clear negative impact on the growth in the North America segment. All in all, when we look at the growth in North America, I expect the growth to recover in the second quarter.

Due to the negative installations development, real sales growth in technology and solutions was -1%. When looking at profitability, we note strong resilience in the business with 30 basis points improvement in the margin to 9.0% in the quarter.

We then move to Europe, where we had a solid improvement in profitability. The organic growth was 3%, and here, the growth was supported by price increases, including impact from Turkey, and good growth of technology and solutions, while active portfolio management in the services business had a negative impact.

We also had lower-than-expected sales in aviation in Q1, and this was related to the situation in the Middle East and reduced number of flights. Real sales growth in technology and solutions was good at 6%.

We recorded a solid 40 basis points margin improvement in the European business for an overall margin of 6.1%. The margin improvement was driven by both business lines, including positive impact from the business optimization program that we concluded last year.

Security services margin was positively impacted by active portfolio management, and as previously communicated, we expect to finalize this work in Europe in the second quarter. We also recorded good improvement in the operating margin in the technology and solutions business line, driven by good portfolio development and cost control.

All in all, a good development by our European team. We then shift to Ibero-America, and here, we had strong development across all key metrics.

The growth was 6%, and this was driven by strong growth in technology and solutions and price increases in security services. There is a negative impact on the growth from active portfolio management, but our team are driving good conversions to technology and solutions, and the real sales growth in technology and solutions was very strong at 12%.

The operating margin improved 30 basis points in the quarter to 7.4%, and the improvement is driven by positive revenue and margin shift towards technology and solutions. To conclude, very strong start to the year by our Ibero-America team.

To summarize the business performance, we're driving disciplined execution of our strategy, and while the top-line growth was lower than our plans in North America, we have continued margin improvement across all segments. When you look at the client retention, it's stable or improving across all segments.

With that, turn to the finance update and handing over to you, Matteo.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you, Magnus, and good morning all. We start with the income statement, where we had organic sales growth of 0% and improved the operating margin with 40 basis points to 6.8%.

It is a good quarter in term of margin, where we improved our operating income with 8% adjusted for currency. As you might remember, since Q2 last year, we have introduced two new KPIs, which are adjusting our organic growth and our operating margin for the government business to be closed down within SCIS.

In the quarter, the adjusted organic growth was positive 2%, and the adjusted operating margin was 7.0%, which is 30 basis points better than last year. Looking below the operating result, there are no material development in amortization of acquisition-related intangible, and we have reported 30 million SEK acquisition-related costs, mainly due to the successful closure of LifeRaft acquisition.

Item affecting comparability ended with an income of 184 million, 213 million income related to the divestment primarily to the Global Elite Group, part of the US airport security business, and 29 million costs related to the ongoing European transformation program. The European transformation program will continue throughout 2026, as was previously communicated, and we estimate to have a full-year 2026 program cost between 225 and 250 million SEK.

Our finance net came in at 357 million, a reduction of 140 million compared to last year. We continued the positive trend of reduced financing costs, and interest rate and our debt level are decreasing.

Full-year 2026, we estimate the finance net continue to reduce and end below 1.6 billion, compared to the 1.8 for the full-year 2025. Now moving on to tax, in the quarter, we had a tax rate of 24.1%.

The tax rate before tax on item affecting comparability was 26.8%. The tax rate excluding the capital gain related to the divestment of Global Elite Group was 27.5%, which is the level we are expecting for the full-year 2026.

Looking at our EPS, real change growth was strong at 34% in the quarter. When excluding the positive effect from IAC, the EPS real change growth was 16%, supported by a solid 8% real change in our operating result and by a strong leverage from the reduced finance net.

Now in the next slide, we also see that the quarterly results reflect FX headwinds, which were largely driven by USD movement. Now if we move to the cash flow, where our operating cash flow was at 978 million or 40% of operating income.

The cash flow was positively impacted by $41 million due to the payroll timing in our guarding business in North America and by Paragon, including the net working capital release related to the close-down. The free cash flow ended at 178 million, supported by a strong Q1 operating cash flow and reduced financial income and expenses from the improved debt position.

We continue to see an improved operating cash flow, and we remain focus on strong cash generation to meet our full target of 70% to 80% of operating income. Then we look at the net debt, which was 32.2 billion at the end of the quarter.

This is an increase of 941 million compared to Q1 Q4 last year, primarily related to acquisition and divesture of 120 million, which include the net effect of the divestment of the aviation business in the US, a small non-core part of our technology business in Canada, and the acquisition of LifeRaft. Negative translation difference of 635 million due to the weakened Swedish krona and payment of item affecting comparability according to our plan.

Looking at the right-hand side, our net debt to EBITDA reduced to 2.2, which is an improvement of 0.3 time compared to quarter one last year. We are all well below our target net debt to EBITDA of less than 3 times and expect to continue the leverage our balance sheet in the short run.

Now moving on to have a look at the financing and financial position, where we continue to have a strong balance sheet, strong liquidity, and we remain without any financial covenants in our debt facilities. Going forward and looking at the maturity chart, we have very limited refinancing needed throughout 2026, and our focus will be to continue to amortize debt, supported by the strong free cash flow generation.

I will also be glad to present and give you a lot more details about the capital allocation during the next Capital Market Day in June. Finally, we remain committed to our investment-grade rating.

With that, I now hand it over back to you, Magnus.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Very very good, and many thanks, Matteo. Before we open up the Q&A, I'd like just to share a few points regarding our strategic direction and how we're shaping the company and creating value in the future.

Because with the transformation of Securitas, we have clearly differentiated client offering now and are well-positioned for profitable growth. We're operating in attractive and growing markets, and we partner with our clients for the long term.

We see that our deep engagement model, where we leverage technology, digital capabilities in combination with our presence, is generating higher value for our clients and also for us. This approach is working.

We're executing on our plans, and as I mentioned before, 21 consecutive quarters of operating margin improvement and operating cash flow consistently above 80% in the last few years. We've had a clear focus on enhancing the quality of our business, and with the business now in much better shape, we can shift emphasis towards enhancing the value proposition and driving commercial synergies, and this will have a positive impact on the growth.

As stated many times, we do this work with a clear focus on building a more scalable business. Coming back then at a high level on the performance in the quarter, we continue to execute on our strategy, delivering solid margin and EPS improvement.

I think those are the two main highlights of this quarter, and we're very well-positioned to lead this industry with the best value proposition for our clients also in the coming phase. On that note, as Matteo mentioned, we are very excited to share a lot more about our longer-term opportunities and looking forward to seeing you at our Capital Markets Day in London on June 16.

With that, let's open up the Q&A session.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad.

The next question comes from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Suhasini Varanasi

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

Just a couple from me, please. Can you discuss the growth trends in March after the Middle East conflict started?

Looks like Europe in particular got impacted a little bit, and how big is the Middle East in Europe? That's the first one.

The second one is on the North America business. Negative growth in technology was a little bit surprising, plus a slow start to guarding.

You've indicated that the commercial momentum is still strong. Is the expectation that this technology business can come back to mid-single-digit growth in the coming quarters?

Did momentum actually improve at the end of the quarter or in April, for example? If you can share that color, that would be great.

Thank you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you, Suhasini. On the growth trends in March and in Europe, when you look at the Middle East, we haven't called that out specifically in the report because from a growth perspective, we saw lower aviation activity in the month of March, and that had a negative impact on total volume.

As stated, it's aviation, which is a relatively small part of the total business, and also only one month. We have a good presence in the Middle East, but the business that we have, that is then included in the AMEA region, which we are reporting under the other category.

If you look at the business on the ground, no major disturbance, I would say, despite the difficult situation that the region is going through. There, we have handled well, and obviously security is very high on the agenda.

When you're looking at the growth or at the negative development in installations in Q1 in North America, yeah, that was clearly a negative surprise and also below our expectations. Just to give some more flavor to that as well, there were three winter storms that had quite a significant impact.

I have not mentioned any winter storms in the past as the CEO of the company, but here, we had three, and what happens then is that traveling to and from client sites was not possible. That also then meant that we were not able to complete a lot of the work, and that also had some productivity impact as well after those kind of close-downs.

That was the main driver here. To your question, when you're looking at the order intake, because obviously in this type of a situation, very close attention on the order intake, and that is, yeah, strongly up compared to last year.

When you look at the back order, also clearly up. Looking at the commercial activity, my expectation is that we will recover in the second quarter.

That's also the reason I spelled that out in the report as well, because even though we had some logistical challenges in the first quarter, most important is what does the order intake look like and also the back order, because that's obviously the leading indicator. We don't give more guidance than that, but I think my comments are reflecting the genuine view in terms of how looking at the recovery.

Suhasini Varanasi

Thanks, Magnus, that's very clear.

Magnus Ahlqvist

The last point, sorry, was also related to guarding in North America. That was slightly softer than what we had expected.

We had a couple of terminations in the fourth quarter that had an impact. There again, commercial activity, very healthy; client retention, also improving.

There, we are through with all the active portfolio management work, etc. Those are really the main points.

All in all, looking at North America as a segment, these factors combined then lead to my conclusion and view that we will recover in the second quarter.

Suhasini Varanasi

That's very clear. Thank you.

Interesting that you mentioned weather in North America, because I think we've had another company also mentioned something similar. Looks like something extraordinary happened over there this quarter.

Thank you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Simon Johnson from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Simon Johnson

Hello and good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Some of them were already answered about the T&S growth, but maybe you can expand a little bit on the order intake and backlog that you highlighted were strong, and how that translates to the growth rate you have seen in recent quarters for T&S. Does it imply continued growth or an acceleration, you think?

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you, Simon. When you look at the solutions part of T&S, that's portfolio business.

There's generally more stability. In the technology, we break that down into two main parts.

One is what we call recurring revenue, and the other part is then the installations-related projects. With the installations, there we essentially design and install/integrate technology for the client, but then obviously always with the intention of then also serving the clients with more recurring services after that.

That is, when you look at the nature of that business, that is more volatile. That's something that I've also called out in the last couple of years and also when we did the STANLEY acquisition, that installation business, given the nature of the business, it isn't portfolio.

That is obviously something that there could be swings. We also saw that in 2025, when we had very strong finish to the year, for example, but now then a significantly weaker Q1.

Main factor, like I said, is related to this weather situation. When that happens, everything is a fairly fine-tuned operation.

If we then have operational disturbances, that will also create productivity issues in the subsequent days and weeks. On the order entry, this is something that we are tracking every day.

When I look at that, it is really positive development in Q1 compared to the same period last year. Back order, like I said, and that's obviously what is remaining on in terms of firm orders with work to be done, that also had a very positive development.

Those are the two main kind of leading indicators. Obviously when you have this type of a situation where you have a negative surprise like this, we're scrutinizing a lot, and obviously also then very closely in contact with the clients and with our teams.

Matteo and I have also reviewed with all key leaders in North America in the technology business just a couple of weeks ago. Like I said, looking at Q1, very good activity and good numbers coming in.

That is giving me confidence that we're in a good position to turn that business around. I hope that gives a little bit more flavor, Simon, but I think that's as much as we can comment essentially on the installations part of the tech business.

Simon Johnson

Yes, I understand. Thanks for that.

Good color. Then I just wanted to go to the cash flow a bit here and a few detailed questions.

On the M&A spending, first of all, here in this quarter, was that mainly LifeRaft acquisition or other parts involved in that figure as well?

Matteo Dall'Ora

Hi, Simon. Yes, I think for the cash flow, regarding the acquisition part was mainly LifeRaft.

Then, of course, we had also the divestment of GEG, the aviation business in the US. Those are the two main the divestment and the acquisition related to the cash flow.

Simon Johnson

All right. Do you have anything to comment on multiples for LifeRaft?

Is it the level you think you will continue to be at for further acquisitions in that segment?

Magnus Ahlqvist

The idea here, we believe that we have paid what is a fair market value. Should be stated that that type of a company has completely different type of valuation compared to Securitas.

What is important with LifeRaft is that we have very strong operational capabilities with our technology business, with the services business, but when you look at the next phase, and this is something we will talk a lot more about this at the Capital Markets Day in June, is that we also then look at how can we help our clients and be more on top in terms of dynamic management on the risks and the threats that they are facing in their business. Here, LifeRaft have built really unique competence within the open source intelligence space.

Essentially what we are doing here is that we're buying a small company by Securitas standards, but the intention is that we're able to leverage and to scale that unique competence across our large client base. Your base or your key question, I think it's kind of market valuation for that type of a business, but we obviously expect that we're going to create really good return on investment over time when we can buy something which is relatively small with unique competence and then scale that across the large portfolio.

Simon Johnson

All right, good. Looking forward to hearing more on the CMD.

Just a final one on the cash flow here in terms of items affecting comparability. You're guiding for the result effect mainly for the transformation program.

What can you say of the expectations for the cash impact here in the full year? I think it was 170 million here in Q1 in total.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Yes, correct. We are about 170 million.

As I said, for the 2026, we will continue with the European transformation program, where our costs will be roughly 225 to 250 million SEK.

Simon Johnson

All right. Thank you, Magnus and Matteo, for that.

That's all for me.

Operator

The next question comes from Andy Grobler from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Andy Grobler

Hi, good morning. Just three quick ones from me, if I may.

Firstly, or first and second, on Europe. Could you just talk through the impact of Turkey on growth rates, and with that, the kind of the underlying volume versus price growth for that division?

Secondly, portfolio management continued to weigh on organic, as you've talked to before. When do you think that process will be complete, or at least largely complete?

Then thirdly, just on the cash flow and the IACs, just picking up on the last question, just clarify what the expectation is for group IACs for the full year. Is that 225 to 250 million the right number to think of pre the positive impact of the divestitures in Q1 for the full year, or will there be incremental costs as well?

Thanks very much.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thanks, Andy. On Europe, more than half of the growth in Europe related to Turkey.

I think that is the key point. Looking at active portfolio management, which was your second question, we expect to complete that in the second quarter.

That's in line with what I communicated a year ago. This is obviously work that we have been doing for a number of years.

After the second quarter, somebody asked, "Okay, what happens then?" Then it's more business as usual in terms of normal portfolio optimization.

As and you know us well, a number of years ago when we started this journey, it was based on the insight that we had significant part of the portfolio that wasn't in good shape. We've been constantly working on that, and it will feel really, really good to wrap that up as a project in the second quarter.

That's in Europe, but it's the same also in Ibero-America, because then we can start to gradually shift more towards profitable growth after that. That is really the situation on the active portfolio management in Europe, but also Ibero-America.

Matteo, on the IAC?

Matteo Dall'Ora

On the IAC cash flow, we aim to finish 2026 with about 1 billion SEK in cash flow, which is very similar to the level of 2020 20 25. That's the level we are expecting at the moment.

Andy Grobler

Okay. Sorry, 1

Matteo Dall'Ora

1 billion just

Andy Grobler

in particular when looking at the IACs, sorry, just to clarify exactly what you mean by that 1 billion there, is that... Yeah, 1 billion.

Matteo Dall'Ora

This is related to the European transformation program, but also we have the Paragon close-down, which is impacting the cash flow overall, which is a value of roughly 1 billion in '26 comparable with last year.

Andy Grobler

Okay. All right.

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Remi Grenu from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Remi Grenu

Good morning, gentlemen. A few questions on my side.

First, the first two are on the North American market. The first one would be on the addressable market itself.

It seems like the US security employment data has been deteriorating a little bit over the last few months, which is a little bit surprising even the context. I wouldn't have expected that data to come off a bit.

The number of guards seems to be flat or slightly declining. I I just want to understand if there is any rational explanation for that.

Do do you think that the addressable market in itself is a little bit weaker than than what we've seen over the last two years? On on the US market as well, just want to have your view on the competitive landscape.

I I know that retention rate has improved in Q1 this in Q1 this year, but it was a little bit weaker from Q3 onwards. If you're losing contracts, is there any competitive landscape explanation to to that?

Then a third question just on the IAC. I think you're guiding for mo- more than 200 million of costs for the transformation program in Europe, which was my understanding was that these costs were supposed to come down in '25 and in '26 again, but it's it feels like it's ramping up again versus last year.

Just want you to to have more flavor on what is driving that increase in costs associated with the transformation in Europe, as I thought that it would kind of coming to an end. Thank you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you. Remi, if you look at the North American market, looking at the economy itself, it's been resilient, I would say, despite a lot of the things that have been going on politically and also geopolitically.

I think that that's at a very high level. We also follow some of this industry data, which is not always great quality, we usually then, thanks to our own presence in the market and good proximity to our clients, also try to understand the overall market developments.

I would say that there is a very large and significant addressable market for us in North America. There is a lot that we can go after over many, many years to come.

We have been investing, when you look at the second question in terms of the competitive context, first of all is that we are unique in the sense that we have a leading position in technology, we have a leading position also in guarding, and I would say that we are the clear quality choice. When you look at the competitive context, we're unique in that sense.

Almost all the competitors are either guarding companies or electronic security systems integration businesses, what we call technology. In that sense, we are also quite unique.

We have built, when you look at our guarding business, very much our competitive edge based on proximity to the client. It's been investing a lot also in terms of the quality of the operation, how we've been driving the digitalization, and so I feel really good in terms of our team that we have, our leadership looking at the operation and also the value proposition and how we continuously also invest in that value proposition.

I would say that confidence level, we're always humble people, but we're very confident about the value proposition that we bring to our clients in this competitive context. Then we will share a lot more, as stated also, at the Capital Markets Day.

I hope that you're able to then join us for that as well, because that's obviously we also will talk more about what it really means to be intelligence-led. We're going to talk a lot more about the combination as well of leading presence, technology, and data and digital capabilities.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Remi, I think when it comes to the IAC, maybe a clarification. If you take 2025, we had two programs under the IAC.

One was the European transformation program, and the other one was the business optimization program. If you recall in quarter four, it was mentioned that the business optimization program has been closed, we are continue to run the European transformation.

Last year 2025, we had roughly 380 million SEK in the IAC related to the program. This year, we are aiming to close between 225 and 250.

This is quite a nice reduction of between 150, 130 million SEK. This is a bit the picture as we have today.

We aim to continue to reduce IAC. Will it go to zero?

I don't think so, but our aim is to continue to reduce, but is a nice reduction compared to 2025, for sure.

Remi Grenu

Thank you. For sure, I'll be at the CMD.

Would not miss it. Thank you.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Johan Eliason from SB1 Markets. Please go ahead.

Johan Eliason

Good morning, Magnus, and welcome, Matteo. Some questions from my side.

Looking at the technology and solution, it has been sort of delivering a little bit below the 8% to 10% target you had for this part of the business. We heard about installation services being volatile and now recently down.

Can you talk a little bit about how the solutions part has developed? I think historically at some point in time, you did report on this on a separate note, and it was at the time growing quite strongly.

Is it sort of still a significantly growing part of the technology and solutions part? Thank you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you, Johan. Some context on the 8% to 10% that we communicated in 2022.

That was also including acquisitions, just to highlight or to just remind about that. Like you said, when looking at the growth of 4% in Q1, yeah, that is below my expectation.

I think significantly below our capability. We have clear opportunity to improve on that.

When looking at the quarter, very strong solutions development in Ibero-America. We had strong development in Europe and also improving in North America.

What we have done here as well just for context is with the STANLEY acquisition, we and I prioritize very much that we are successful in terms of really building the technology pillar, that we drive the integration successfully, that we deliver on the cost synergies. In the next phase, what we call solutions now, it's essentially where we take more comprehensive approach in terms of what is the customer looking for in terms of the outcome and that we then design and propose a combination of different services to optimize the security equation for that client.

That will be a very important theme over the next 5 to 10 years. If you ask the simple question, "Well, is there more opportunity in this space?"

Absolutely the case, because we're seeing more and more evidence of that every day with technology becoming more and more important, digital becoming and intelligence capabilities becoming more important, that we also have a more of a pull from the clients and where we can also then leverage the value proposition that we have. That's really the context.

I would say that it is on the solutions overall, we're definitely on the right path, but also then now fine-tuning a little bit how we're working in that space when we're also done with a lot of the cleanup activity that we've had on the guarding side, but also integration activity on the technology side, now really gearing ourselves up to also drive more of that related to the client needs.

Johan Eliason

Excellent. Looking forward to that.

Just some details on airport these days. How big share is it of group or maybe Europe and North America after the divestments, France and the US?

Magnus Ahlqvist

If you look at the overall share of sales, around 5% coming from aviation. When you're looking at Europe, it's more focused now on a few markets.

As you probably remember, Johan, I also said a number of years ago starting with the pandemic period that all the business that we have has to be quality business. It has to be financially sustainable, and there, we have gone through a large kind of process of active portfolio management.

Where I would say the business that we have today, it's healthy business in Europe. Looking at North America, there, and that you have also seen, we have divested GEG, which it's not screening-related services, but other services at a number of different airports across the US, and that was a good decision because we have also been clear about the fact that everything that we do has to be fully aligned with the strategy, but we also need to have critical mass locally in any kind of business that we are engaged with to ensure that we can have real presence in the market and that we can invest in the quality and the development of the value proposition.

I think the divestment there of GEG, that's just fully in line with continuing to sharpen our business. Then maybe last point just to complement that we also have some aviation business across Ibero-America as well.

Just a clarification, when I say 5%, 5% was the number before we divested GEG, so, yeah, naturally then somewhat lower today.

Johan Eliason

Excellent. Then, just finally, I didn't quite hear what Matteo you said on the cash flow impact from the IAC.

I think you said a billion, and you mentioned something about Paragon, but I couldn't hear what you said.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Yes, correct. So...

That's correct, Johan. I mentioned, 1 billion SEK is the impact on the cash flow from IAC perspective, which is the same level as 2025.

Johan Eliason

Okay. Thank you.

Matteo Dall'Ora

You're welcome.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Allen Wells from Jefferies.

Please go ahead.

Allen Wells

Hey, good morning, gentlemen. Just three quick ones from me, please.

Just on the airports business, I'm not sure exactly to what extent, you said it's broadly 5% at the group, a bit less post the divestments, but as you think about what you've seen March into April, obviously, the conflict continues, we've got some risk of aviation fuel shortages, how do you see that growth in that business developing over 2Q and the rest of the year, and are there any actions you can take to manage or mitigate that? That's my first question, please.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thanks, Allen. When you look at Q1 just to start with some of the facts, like I said, the Middle East situation had a negative impact on the number of flights and, I assume, also on the number of passengers traveled.

That, in turn, had a negative impact on our revenue in Europe. When you're looking at the Middle East situation from a cost perspective, it's not so much hitting our aviation business, but we had some negative impact from rising fuel costs.

That is not isolated to Europe, obviously, because the oil price is global. There, we saw that there was some impact, but we haven't called that out since it was only during one month.

When you look at that, and that's not aviation-related specifically, there we always look at what do we need to do to ensure that we cover our costs and then pass on the costs to our customers. That is one that we are watching carefully since we have a number of mobile officers, obviously, with a very strong presence in many key markets, but we also have installation and service and maintenance technicians as well around the world and who are in constant kind of mobility.

That is one that we are watching, but our general principle is always that we are passing on costs when that is justified. Then it's a little bit difficult, obviously, because to your question about how does it look for the remainder of the year.

If I look at the contracts that we have and the business that we have in aviation, like I said before, they are in good shape now. Decent and sustainable profitability that enables us to invest in good quality and also investing in the relationship and the value proposition.

It depends quite a lot also on how is air travel developing now in the next couple of months. When you're looking at April through September/October in Europe, that's a very busy period in the aviation space, and that's obviously very much related to the holidays and things like that.

Then it does also vary most of our contracts are more kind of fixed-price contracts, but we also have some that are price per passenger, there is a little bit of dynamic there. It's difficult, Allen, to forecast how that will play out.

We're watching it carefully, and when there is a cost impact from the Middle East situation, there we are working to pass those costs on to our clients.

Allen Wells

No, that's helpful. Then two other quick ones, please.

Just secondly just on North America, there's a few significant events going on in the region. I'm particularly thinking about the World Cup.

Do you have any exposure to potential kind of guarding activity, event-based extra sales growth in North America over the summer that could be called out? Then finally, just on the portfolio management in Europe, obviously coming to an end, I don't know if you could possibly quantify the impact on the active management, i.e., what would the 3% growth have looked like in Q1 if you hadn't chosen to exit contracts?

Just trying to work out what the base looks like and how we can think about that as it rolls off in Q2 and onwards. Thank you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

On North America, we focus our business on our portfolio of clients and the ongoing client relationships. I'm not so keen on going after one-off type of events, because most important is that we are delivering with continuity to our existing client base.

I wouldn't say that there is much of an impact in any way to expect related to the World Cup. When you look at active portfolio management in Europe, well, I think I've shared that last year.

We have some markets where, and more significant markets, where we had a very significant impact on the organic sales growth. I think without going into too much specifics, depends a little bit quarter to quarter and also how much business we are winning, etc., to compensate and how much we are converting from regular on-site guarding activities to integrated solutions.

It's definitely been several percent impact when you're looking over an extended period of time that has been negative from the active portfolio management in Europe. That's quite tough, because that means that then you have negative fixed-cost leverage, but there we've obviously also been working to dynamically also adjust our organization, and that's also the reason that you've seen that the operating profit margin is continuing up.

It's also improving because we're managing to convert the vast majority of our contracts to healthy and sustainable contracts. I think that has been a really important shift that we have been going through, not only in Europe, but globally over the last few years in terms of really defending the value and where, like I said, the vast majority of clients are then saying, "Yeah, we definitely want to stay with Securitas."

It's been more a question of, okay, what is the kind of the required level, and then we have found a solution and then moved forward. Active portfolio management, like I said before, the project itself is coming to an end and concluding that in Q2.

Then in a large guarding business, there is always a need for ongoing kind of business as usual. This is something that I think also our teams, they have learned a lot, and they're also a lot more able today to also manage carefully down to each individual contract, because we are here in the business of delivering good quality and delivering sustainable returns.

This is something also with the modern systems that we are increasingly deploying. We also get much better visibility as well across the business in terms of the health of the business.

I think it's been quite painful work over a number of years, but it will serve us well for the mid and the long term. We can then focus more on quality and profitable growth.

Allen Wells

Very clear.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Viktor Lindeberg from DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Viktor Lindeberg

Thank you, and good morning. Left with some housekeeping questions from my side, starting on LifeRaft.

Maybe you can comment a bit here, Magnus, what you expect in terms of profitability and growth in the shorter to medium term. I think it grew by close to 30% organically last year, but it would be helpful to see if that's something you project also going forward, and what kind of profitability this asset is delivering for you when it's now plugged in.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you. It's a small business, but with very strong growth.

We expect continued strong growth of this business, and that's obviously LifeRaft on a standalone basis, but also gradually over time when we can also open up our client base and leverage the great competence that LifeRaft team has in terms of open source intelligence. Standalone plan, yeah, projected strong growth in the coming years, and that is important.

Then I also think that, like I mentioned at one of the earlier questions as well, our idea here is that there is very specific competence with LifeRaft. We've been working with them over the last five years, and we see very strong opportunities in terms of leveraging their intelligence capabilities across our broader client base.

I think that is how we also ensure that we are generating a good return on this investment over time. In terms of profitability, break-even today, but that's also very much based on reinvesting everything in continued growth, which I think is the right approach because this is also an area where we want to build more critical mass and relevance and really strengthen our own value proposition.

Looking at the mid and the long term, there is obviously a very good profitability opportunity in this type of a business. Most important now is that we scale it, and that we scale it on a standalone basis, but then also leveraging commercial synergies with the Securitas client base.

Viktor Lindeberg

Yep, got that. That's clear.

I have, as usual, looked at your annual report, and I guess the recurring question here is on your accounts receivables and the bad debt provisions. I've looked at the bad debt provisions as share of overall receivables and as share of sales.

As you probably know, this has trended down now the past two years, you've sort of shifted the provisioning of bad debt quite a lot lower. This is coming from invoicing that is overdue more than 90 days.

I guess there's a good reason for this, but I just want to take that noise out of the room as it's sort of a frequent question coming every now and then. I guess the absolute provisioning level is also something that is important to bear in mind, but any color you could give on the quite sizeable shift you've made in the provisioning estimates would be helpful to understand a bit more.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Of course. As you can see from the annual report, the total provision for bad debt losses, excluding the translation, reduced to 1.5 billion, compared to 1.860 in 2024.

Also the total provision for bad debt losses exceeding the 90 days, it went actually down from 1.5 in 2025 to 1.761 in 2024. I think if you look a bit from a bad debt point of view and the effect on our P&L, we are pretty much stable where we were in 2024 with 0.1% impact in our profit and loss.

Although we have changed a bit the percentage on the aging, we see no big impact over there, and the impact on the P&L is rather stable as 0.1%.

Viktor Lindeberg

Yes, that's what I just wanted to confirm. That's good.

Would you say that you see any improving recovery rates in the post-90 days of provisioning that has led you to become a bit more optimistic about this provisioning level, or it's more about keeping the overall bad debt provisioning in balance?

Matteo Dall'Ora

I think the aim is, of course, to improve our accounts receivable and the aging, but we see stable situation at the moment. As I said, the impact on the P&L is rather stable as 0.1%.

We are going to keep the situation rather stable, trying to improve the aging, of course, quarter on quarter. This is the situation where we are today.

Viktor Lindeberg

Okay. That's clear.

Thank you so much, and see you in June.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time.

I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Okay. Thanks a lot, everyone, for good questions and engagement today.

As stated earlier, looking forward to seeing you for our Capital Markets Day in June. It's going to be really good opportunity now.

We've finished the last phase successfully, and then to be able to share also what we have in our plans and the strategy for the next phase. Thanks a lot.

Enjoy the rest of the day. Bye-bye.