Tabcorp Holdings Limited

Tabcorp Holdings Limited

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Feb 18Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 24, 2026

Gillon McLachlan

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our results for the first half FY 2026. I'm Gillon McLachlan, and I'm joined on the call by CFO Mark Howell.

I'm going to take the presentation as read and talk you through the key areas. To start slide two, we released our revised game plan a year ago, and I believe we're executing on that plan.

The numbers today reflect the progress we've made, and we're steadily building a culture of doing what we say we will do, and for me, that's critically important. I want to stress that we're midway through our turnaround plan, and there's still work to do.

We're not yet at the level I want us to be, but I'm pleased we're on track against our FY 2026 objectives, and we made good progress in the first half. Our improved execution continues with AFL Miss by 1 and MEGABOT during the footy season, and we showed up strongly through the Spring Carnival with TAB Takeover, and TAB Town continued to sell out.

The Spring Carnival, however, was a customer's carnival. Yields from September to November were historically low because of an unusually high number of favorites winning major races.

Despite those challenges, the diversification of our business allowed us to deliver a pleasing result. It was a company-wide effort: cost and capital discipline, an improved omni-channel customer offering, and growth in MAX.

These the outcomes of creating a fitter company with greater capability. If you look at slide six, we continue to execute on our first pillar with the appointments of general managers to lead retail, MAX, marketing, and strategy.

People are everything, and these appointments are part of our continuous journey of improvement. I now refer you to slide seven and our second pillar: we are going to deliver a national tote, and our target remains the end of this financial year.

One pool will increase the liquidity for punters and, in time, create new product opportunities. Australian racing will also have a greater global reach with the potential for more world pools, which will better connect us to a global calendar.

I want to acknowledge the principal racing authorities in each state who are working collaboratively on this opportunity. Our in-play product, TAB Live, is progressing, and we recently received ACMA clearance, and we are now working to develop our launch plan for New South Wales.

Discussions with other states are advanced. On this slide, I also want to call out our integrity services business, MAX.

It's a consistent and growing business. A number of key partnerships were renewed in the half, and we're looking at opportunities which could expand our footprint.

Now I'll push you to slide eight. A core pillar of our game plan is to deliver unrivaled omni-channel experiences.

We continue to innovate with new products and a better look and feel to create a genuine racing and sports entertainment offering. TAB Town was the first to launch, and it's sold out every week since the pilot commenced.

It sold out in a record three minutes on Saturday. TAB Takeover highlights how all of our assets can be combined to deliver something unique in the market.

We'll be delivering exclusive in-venue generosities that incorporate both racing and sport and encourages more people to be in the venues. We have a strong product and generosity pipeline for both AFL and NRL seasons, which will be launched in venues this week.

Push you to slide nine now, and the TAB brand is becoming more youthful, sports-oriented, and experiential. Turnover among 18 to 24-year-olds was up 14% in the first half of '26.

I want to touch on LIV Golf and Super Bowl for just an example of how we're talking to a new cohort of sports fans. We know customers want live experiences, and attention spans are getting shorter.

Stories sell, and brand connection is increasingly more important. Tentpole assets like Super Bowl and LIV Golf are examples of how we're delivering in this space.

We will be activating our brand and entertainment propositions across these assets and showcasing these activations on TAB-owned channels. We'll be unmissably green at more than just racings.

Flemington and Randwick will continue to be our flagship properties, but we know we also need to connect with more sporting audiences. On slide 10, some numbers there, and this refreshed offering is delivering.

Digital in-venue turnover increased 12% in the half, including growth in sport of 26% and 42% growth in the 18 to 24-year-old cohort. Looking ahead, next-generation EBTs will commence rollout in July, and in conjunction with TAB Live, will further differentiate our offer in the market.

Slide 11: our fourth pillar is about delivering growth underpinned by a sustainable retail channel. To do this, we'll invest in retail through redirecting generosity, developing new products, and rolling out modernized betting terminals to attract customers and grow turnover for the benefit of TAB and our venue partners.

To enable this, we must create a structurally profitable channel that is sustainable. This requires a new commercial model that improves alignment with our partner venues and simplifies the existing framework.

Finally, slide 12 and 13 showcase our media business. I said in August that the look and feel is going to be different during the spring racing carnival, and the team delivered.

We introduced new content, evolved our talent, and overhauled our magazine programs to be more contemporary. Our leading tipsters have a permanent place on the homepage of the TAB app.

Every punter can access their tips with pre-filled betslips. It continues the evolution to a true omni-channel experience.

We've also strengthened our core rights portfolio, including Victorian thoroughbred rights domestically and internationally. Our focus remains on enhancing our core offering and content and expanding distribution both in Australia and internationally.

I'll now hand over to Mark to talk you through the detailed financial results.

Mark Howell

Thanks, Gill. Morning, everyone.

As Gill mentioned, the growth in earnings in first half '26 reflects a modestly improving turnover environment, strong strategic execution, and cost and capital discipline. We've delivered a pleasing set of results given the impact of below-average wagering yields and have responded to the revenue environment with continued focus on cost control and disciplined capital investment.

This has led to earnings growth, margin expansion, and a reduction in our leverage ratio to 1.5 times net debt to EBITDA at the end of the calendar year. Before I run you through the results in detail, there are four key aspects I want to call out.

First, domestic wagering revenue pre-VRI impacts fell by 2.5% despite modest growth in turnover due to below-average yields during the half. The reduction in yield versus longer-term averages was due to a run of customer-friendly results during the NRL, AFL finals, and through the Spring Racing Carnival.

Some of this softer yield was recovered through the back end of November and in December, when yields were very strong. We estimate the net yield impact across the period was around 15 basis points or about $10 million of net revenue when comparing to longer-term averages.

Second, the benefit of the reformed Victorian wagering license applied for the whole six months of the half versus only 4.5 months in the PCP. We estimate this delivered an incremental $12.2 million of EBITDA in the first half '26.

Third, we continue to focus on improving cost discipline across the business. Opex adjusted for the reformed Victorian license decreased by 3.7%.

This, together with some modest revenue growth and some benefit from phase one of the new retail commercial model, helped us deliver operating leverage and a 190-basis-point improvement in EBITDA margin to 16.2%. Fourth, we continue to focus on efficient investment of capital.

In the first half '26, capex reduced by 11% on the PCP to $51 million. This provides additional capacity to invest in growth for the second half, including the rollout of new modernized betting terminals in retail venues to support an improved customer experience in-venue and support our omni-channel strategy.

Our leverage ratio reduced to 1.5 times, providing us with significant balance sheet flexibility as we deliver our strategy. Now moving on to the results.

Slide 15 sets out the first half '26 group financial results. Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion, variable contribution increased 4.3%, while reported opex decreased 1.1%, delivering 14.3% growth in EBITDA to $217.4 million and 18.9% growth in EBIT to $110.2 million.

Net interest expense decreased due to the reduced net debt as we continue to delever. As discussed in prior Tabcorp results, the high effective tax rate in the P&L was driven by non-deductible Vic license amortization and the interest discount unwind.

Finally, NPAT before sig items grew at 61.5%. An interim dividend of 1.5 cents per share has been declared, representing a 56% payout ratio and a 50% increase on the PCP.

For the remainder of the presentation, I'll focus on three areas: the drivers of EBITDA growth, cost control to deliver operating leverage, and the strengthened balance sheet. Turning to slide 17, you can see the drivers of the 14% EBITDA growth delivered during the half.

We are pleased to deliver this level of earnings growth in light of the modest turnover environment, which, as I've already discussed, was also impacted by unfavorable yields. The incremental earnings uplift from the reformed Victorian wagering license contributed an incremental $21.7 million to VC, which was offset by $9.5 million of costs to deliver a net benefit to EBITDA of $12.2 million.

As discussed earlier, this was partly offset by the impact to VC of below-average wagering yields. Other benefits to earnings include the increase in Integrity Services VC as a result of the annual CPI fee increase as well as increased project work and some benefit to VC from phase one of the new retail commercial model.

Underlying costs improved by $13.5 million, which I'll turn to now. Slide 18 demonstrates the focus on costs which we have had over the last 18 months, with first half '26 opex benefiting from the annualization of actions taken in FY 2025 as well as the continuation of cost discipline on discretionary costs.

Cost inflation remains an ongoing headwind, particularly in technology. However, we've more than offset this with $13.9 million of cost reductions and a further $10.5 million of cost benefits relating to A&P timing and some other smaller cost-related actions.

Looking forward in the second half, we continue our ongoing focus to offset inflation. We also expect to incur additional advertising and promotions spend of around $5 million in relation to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Slide 19 demonstrates the continued focus on capital discipline, with capex for the first half '26 reducing 11% to $51 million. Together with the increase in profitability, this has driven a 360-basis-point return basis point improvement on return on invested capital relative to the prior corresponding period.

Our FY 2026 capex forecast remains unchanged at $120 to $140 million, implying an uplift in the second half run rate related to the rollout of modernized betting terminals under the new retail commercial model. Turning to slide 20 and cash flow.

Underlying cash conversion was 86%, impacted by the timing of some large payments in the first half. This is in line with expectations and similar to the first half of last year.

We continue to expect that on a full-year basis, cash conversion to be between 90 and 100%. One point to note is that cash interest expense of $54.6 million includes $24.9 million of interest relating to our annual payment each August for the Victorian license.

This will not reoccur in the second half, all things being equal, the cash interest in the second half should be closer to $30 million. On to slide 21.

In November, we issued $300 million under a new Australian medium-term note program. The notes carry a competitively priced AUD fixed coupon of 5.99% and a tenor of 5.5 years.

The AMTN delivered on our three objectives, being to diversify our funding sources, extend our average maturity, which now stands at 5.4 years, and increase liquidity. The strong AMTN outcome reflected the significant improvement in the company's prospects over the last 18 months.

Slide 22 shows that our balance sheet remains strong and provides us with the necessary flexibility and funding capacity to pursue our strategy. At 31 December, leverage is 1.5 times, well below our target range of less than 2.5 times through the cycle.

As I remarked at the outset, overall this is a sound result, and we continue to deliver on our strategic agenda. I'll now hand you back to Gill for some closing remarks.

Gillon McLachlan

Thanks, Mark. I believe the company's continued to improve over the last six months.

Our turnaround plan is on track. Earnings have increased, we continue to deliver meaningful cost savings, and our balance sheet is in good shape.

We're focused on executing our strategic agenda for the remainder of FY 2026 and beyond, and we're going to be relentless in executing it. We expect the wagering turnover environment in the second half to be similar to the first half, and I'm pleased with the progress and happy to take your questions.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again.

Please stand by as we compile the Q&A roster. Just a minute for the first question, please.

First question comes from Andre [Fromyhr?] from UBS.

Please go ahead.

Andre Fromyhr

Thank you, good morning. Firstly, just wanted to focus on the turnover environment.

You call out in the second half you're expecting similar conditions or the outlook looks similar to what you've seen in the first half. Is that a comment technically around sort of the level of growth in terms of a year-on-year growth rate, or are you talking more in overall dollars of turnover?

I was wondering as well if you can distinguish between the cash environment and the digital environment, because it looks like cash has outperformed in both a turnover growth and yield perspective in the half you've just reported.

Mark Howell

Thanks, Andre, it's Mark. We're talking about growth, I think we've talked about turnover growth for the first half being around 0.3%.

We sort of see it in that range of what we've called modest growth, and we sort of see that continuing. In terms of the dissection between digital and cash, I'm probably not going to give you a forecast on that, but obviously we're just so pleased with the trends we've been seeing as we've sort of exploited, I suppose, our omni-channel assets.

Andre Fromyhr

Maybe another way to ask that, in terms of the mix of your cash business versus digital, how much of a role is that playing? Because it looks like racing as a category was weaker than sport, but also is this part of the strategy playing out that you're having more success through building participation in retail venues?

Gillon McLachlan

Thanks, Andre, it's Gill. We're very confident in our retail strategy.

We see, obviously, the DIV, off low bases, the digital in-venue going up. Cash is in positive growth.

With some of the strategic things we're announcing today, whether it be the approval from ACMA, or the success of different products in retail, it's central to our strategy, and we see underpinning our numbers.

Andre Fromyhr

Maybe just the last one for me and following up on that retail strategy. I understand, Gill, you've sort of launched the new framework with your venue members late last year.

It doesn't come into effect until the middle of this year, but what's been the reception so far? Is it right to assume that there are some venues that are going to be better off immediately versus worse off immediately?

Are you expecting any sort of attrition in your venues as you transition to the new model?

Gillon McLachlan

Thanks, Andre. We've put retail at the center of our strategy, and we've called out the cash numbers, and I've called out the digital in-venue numbers that's been strong.

The model is simplified. We're going to invest more in the network than the changes.

We're working through that. We think, broadly speaking, we're on track to deliver that new commercial model, and we're actively engaged with the venues through that period and comfortable where it's at.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next, we have Matt Ryan from Barrenjoey.

Please go ahead. Oh,

Matt Ryan

thank you. I was just interested in some of the comments around TAB Town and some of the growth that you're seeing from your younger cohort, and if you could just provide any color on what you're seeing there.

Obviously, they're pretty strong numbers, the benefits that that's giving to your business.

Gillon McLachlan

I think, Matt, it's Gill. I think the standout number in the deck is the fact that across the board of total turnover, the 18 to 24-year-old category grew by 14 and a 14.2 or 14 over 14%.

I feel when we're talking about our push to talk to sport as much as racing, to be younger and more experiential and activate all our assets in that energetic way, whether it's TAB Town or TAB Takeover or whatever, that number is the one that jumps off the page, I think, to me and to us. There's some different numbers in retail specifically, but 14% in across the board, not just in retail in terms of the turnover increase, I think is one that says our brand repositioning is starting to get some traction.

Matt Ryan

Look, absolutely

Gillon McLachlan

you can talk that I've called out, Matt, I've called out

Matt Ryan

sport, the experiential part of that, and that sort of energetic piece, but it's those products that through omni-channel through retail that are obviously, I think, important and all that, which I think you're calling out. Certainly that's my perception of your question.

That's what it looked like. I was just going to also just ask about phase two of the new retail commercial model.

I think you mentioned that EBTs might be arriving in the middle of this year. If you could just, I guess, talk about what the key features are of that phase two and any comments around phasing or timing?

Gillon McLachlan

We'll start rolling out in first week of July. EBTs are in production.

I think what I'd say to them is they're obviously aesthetically, functionally, compliance are all significant improvements. They facilitate the use of cash clearly, but also tap-and-play functionality.

There is I think on a compliance basis, we are future-proofing what we can do that to be a a safe and compliant retail network. The They're not only new hardware, but all the software is going to is being replaced and redeveloped so that, ultimately, any changes Well, first of all, the EBTs will interact with the same functionality and same look and feel as your as the TAB app on your phone, and then any upgrades and product development that plays out through the phone will play out through the terminal.

It'll be so, if we talk about having a seamless TAB experience that will play out both on in-venue, in in cash, in the same way as using your phone. I think that that's significant progression.

It's not only how it looks and feels, it's all so the product, the fact that it's digital and cash, and has obviously some compliance benefits as well. It will talk to the future state of the full maximization of our license.

We we think it's a very critical part of it, and we will start start rolling out nationally first week of July.

Matt Ryan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Just a moment for our next question, please.

Next, we have David Fabris from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

David Fabris

Hi, Gill. Hi, Mark.

Can I just start off with in-play betting? Great to see you've got the ACMA clearance now.

Are there any more hurdles that we need to think about, and can you provide a timeline for the rollout across all your jurisdictions, or is this more just a New South Wales piece up front?

Gillon McLachlan

Thanks, David. You could draw the line that we want to be in lockstep with regulators, and we have the approval in New South Wales, and we're obviously well engaged with all state regulators.

The ACMA sign-off was important, we paused because we don't want to be out of step with anyone. That approval coming through and being confirmed yesterday means now we will actively start rolling out in New South Wales and then work through the approvals in each state.

The timings of those, I don't know. Obviously we're ready to go in New South Wales, and confident, given the discussions we've had, that now with the ACMA approval that will play out, and we'll push ahead quickly.

Does that make sense?

David Fabris

Yeah. No, crystal clear, that's fine.

I appreciate that. The next question, I don't know who will take this one, but just curious to understand the play for BetMakers.

Are you signaling that there might be some shortfalls in your tech stack that BetMakers may have been helpful with? I'm curious to unpack that piece because if we think about BetMakers, they've got retail terminals and a global tote, any commentary there would be helpful, thank you.

Gillon McLachlan

Thanks, David. I'll make some comments.

I don't believe we've been in a position for the last, I've been here whatever it is, 17 or 18 months, I don't think we've been in a position, and we've been clear with you guys, that our primary task was to get fit and get our house in order. I think the fact that we are working through that phase, and I do believe we are now organized in a position that if there was a corporate opportunity, we're in a position with our balance sheet and our operating model to look at that.

I could say to you that we are still focused on growing our business operationally and executing all the strategic initiatives in front of us. If any corporate opportunity presents itself, it would have to be absolutely on-strategy, and any opportunity, we will be absolutely disciplined about price and about how we look at it.

With respect to BetMakers, we haven't made any comment. I know BetMakers did.

I would say I don't think you should draw a line that the fact that it was a tech solve necessarily. There'd be some tech advantages as other broader strategic opportunities in why we had a look at that, but ultimately it didn't make commercial sense to us, because we're going to be disciplined about things, and it'd have to really stack up absolutely.

I think there'll be other stuff around that people want to put to us, and we're in a position to talk to people, but you guys need to know it'll have to be a great strategic fit, and we'll be disciplined about anything we look at.

David Fabris

I appreciate those insights, very helpful, thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Gillon McLachlan

I would add, David, there, in terms of the tech piece, I want to commend the work that our CTO has done in the last year, and the stability of our platform, and the way our tech environment is working both within the app and across retail and what we're able to do functioning that and the upgrades in control sets. I feel that we've made great progress on our technology, and I'm just adding to your specific question.

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from Justin Barratt from CLSA.

Please go ahead.

Justin Barratt

Hi, guys. Thanks very much for your time.

I just wanted to follow up on the TAB Live question. I appreciate you're developing the launch and rollout plan for New South Wales, but I just wanted to try and get an indication of how soon that could potentially start rolling out, and I guess whether that is included in your FY 2026 capex guidance if you think it can be commenced in the next few months.

Gillon McLachlan

I'll let Mark talk to the capex guidance, but there is obviously EBTs in there, and they do have the functionality to deal with TAB Live, but they are broader than that. Obviously, I think we're well progressed and positioned with state-based regulators.

I don't want to preempt how long that would take, but I would say that we've been progressing our operating and operational plans for the rollout of TAB Live, confident in our position with ACMA, which was endorsed yesterday. I think we're well advanced, and Mark might talk to the capital provisions.

Mark Howell

Thanks, Gill. The answer is yes, within the envelope of the 120 to 140, there is an allowance for terminal spend and tap-and-play stations in the second half, which will be rolled out into next year.

There will obviously be some spend next year that will need to be incurred, but I'll provide some guidance on that at the end of the year. What I'd say, per my speaker notes earlier, was that the uptick in run rate for the capital spend into half two will be largely driven by that terminal spend to support the new retail commercial model.

Justin Barratt

Fantastic, okay then. Then, Mark, just while I've got you, I just wanted to see if you could divulge a little bit more around the cost reductions that you saw in this first half.

I appreciate some of it has been the annualizing of processes or cost out from the prior year, but I was just wondering if you could actually split it out and help us understand what potentially came from initiatives introduced in this financial year to date, please?

Mark Howell

The vast majority of it comes from, Justin, actions we took in FY 2025. Obviously, the biggest one was the zero-based design that we did towards the back end of the financial year, that's flowed through this year, and will play into half two as well.

There's also some other smaller, call it, structural cost benefits that part of that 13.9 million that we called out in the opex bridge. Then the other part, the sort of 10.5 million, is really around sort of tighter spend on some discretionary costs.

We talked about some benefit from A&P timing, as some of that A&P spend, as I called out, will be incurred. About 5 million of that will actually come into half two to support the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Justin Barratt

Okay. Then maybe just to follow that up, in terms of that A&P spend, is this a new baseline for us to sort of think about A&P spend going forward, or is it just the timing of events in this half that sort of drove that cost reduction?

Mark Howell

About half of that 10.5 million was the A&P, and, as I've said, that will go into half two, I think across the year, you should be able to work out then what that means as a base on spend.

Justin Barratt

Fantastic, thanks very much for that.

Mark Howell

No worries.

Operator

Thank you. Next, we have Kai Erman from Jefferies.

Please go ahead.

David Katz

Thanks for taking my questions. First one is a bit of a follow-up from David's question earlier.

You've obviously flagged a sort of your capex reduction you had in first half and given capex guidance for the full year. You will likely continue to delever this year, and you're below your target gearing.

Excluding any sort of M&A, how should we think about uses of capital, balance sheet, capital management going forward?

Mark Howell

Thanks, Kai. Look, I think what I've sort of said to help you size on that, there are a number of relatively sizable payments in the first half that have impacted cash flow.

To call a couple out, the Vic license, the 30 million, TAB value-add, the contribution of the stub liability is paid in the first half, and then some sponsorships are weighted to first half as well. Then I've given you sort of the capital envelope for the second half, so that's sort of as you think about cash and cash flow.

I suppose the other piece of the puzzle is we've said that we expect cash flow conversion to be in that 90 to 100% range, so that I think that should give you sort of all the building blocks as it relates to sort of capital allocation for the year.

David Katz

Then as a follow-up, the sort of trend of sports outperforming racing has seemed to continue. Based on your turnover numbers, do you guys think you're sort of outperforming the market in those categories, or that's pretty reflective of what the market's sort of done in the last half?

Gillon McLachlan

I think it's hard to know that. We're just focused on what we are doing.

I think everyone will have a better idea over the coming days, but there's also a lot of numbers out there that no one gets to see. We just focused on being better and growing our business.

I'd say also that while sports outperformed, racing is leveling out and stabilizing, which I think is pertinent.

David Katz

Cool. Thanks.

I'll pass it on there.

Operator

Thank you. Next, we have Rohan Sundram from MST Financial.

Please go ahead.

Rohan Sundram

Hi, team. Just a question on the national tote.

Apologies, Gill, if you already touched on it. It looks like everything's progressing in terms of timelines.

How would you describe the industry discussions and engagement to date? Maybe if you could just reiterate the upside for customers and for Tabcorp in achieving this.

Thanks.

Gillon McLachlan

Thanks, Rohan. I think I called out in my commentary that I'm appreciative of the support of all the PRAs and their ability to lean into this.

It is change, and we've had strong support, and I think there is a mandate to go to a national tote that's unequivocal now. Our tech development is largely complete, and getting regulatory approval in most jurisdictions.

We think we've got a commercial model that can take us through. There's some execution stuff to play out, but we feel actually we're on target to deliver in this financial year.

In terms of what that brings, I think the liquidity that will bring will actually beget its own additional liquidity, and that's ultimately important here, and with that, then that hopefully and confident will then also bring the opportunity for product development and broader international comingling and liquidity opportunities. The liquidity will actually drive, I think, broader liquidity.

We will develop products, and hopefully not just products for racing, but also for sport, and also there is international comingling opportunities. I think it's a very important thing for us.

I'm pleased with where we are in a very difficult thing both sort of politically, technically, and commercially to get done. I feel we're doing okay.

Rohan Sundram

Thanks, Gill.

Operator

Thank you. I see no further questions at this time.

I will now hand the conference back to Gillon for closing remarks.

Gillon McLachlan

Thank you. Thank you all for your questions.

Thanks for dialing in. I think I'll just reiterate where I finished: we are operationally going better every day, but we've got work to do.

We're very comfortable with our strategic plan and where we're going, and we've got high conviction on that and I think certainty across the business. I think we're starting to see some of that come through in our numbers, whether it's younger customers or what's going on in retail.

We've got a lot of initiatives on the boil that we need to get done. We've confirmed where we think the market's going, and we're pleased with that, but not overconfident.

We know we've got lots to do, but happy to be where we're at the half. Thanks for your support, ongoing.

Look forward to seeing you guys out over the coming days. Appreciate it.

Thanks, everyone.