a2 Milk Company Limited

a2 Milk Company Limited

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 15, 2026

David Bortolussi

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My name is David Bortolussi, I'm the Managing Director and CEO of The a2 Milk Company.

Today I'm joined on our call by our CFO, Dave Muscat, and our business unit leaders, Li Xiao, Yohan Senaratne, and Eleanor Cave. The team and I will present the results and outlook, and as always, there will be time at the end for questions.

During the presentation, we will focus on continuing operations, which excludes MVM that we divested during the half, and occasionally refer to underlying results, which exclude a2 Pokeno. We've excluded a2 Pokeno from underlying earnings given that the site is currently underutilized and incurring manufacturing losses and transformation costs which are short term in nature.

Starting on slide 4, we've had a very positive first half of the year, reporting significant revenue and EBITDA growth and underlying EBITDA margin improvement. In our IMF business, we achieved revenue growth of 13.6%, which was well ahead of category growth.

We grew English label IMF by 21%, with strong performance in the CBEC and O2O channels, supported by growth in our new a2 Genesis product and from Vietnam. In China label, we delivered 6.5% revenue growth and achieved record market share in both the MBS and DOL channels.

Our other nutritionals revenue growth accelerated to 43% on a like-for-like basis, driven by our recent kids and seniors innovation, and we recently entered the pediatric supplements category and launched a new kids UHT product. Yohan and Xiao will speak to these new product innovations in more detail later.

Our liquid milk business continues to perform strongly, with growth of 18.5%, driven by our core product range, with much higher growth in our lactose-free and grass-fed product innovations. We significantly advanced our supply chain transformation with the a2 Pokeno acquisition, MVM divestment, and long-term milk supply agreement with Fonterra, which were all announced and completed during the half.

We've made a significant progress against key a2 Pokeno transformation streams, including advancing our China label registration amendment process, upgrading the facility, and expanding our team. Our strong first-half performance has enabled us to upgrade our full-year guidance and declare an interim dividend at the high end of our policy range.

Moving to slide 5, which summarizes our financial results. We delivered double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth of 18.8% and 18.4% respectively, with our EBITDA margin consistent with prior year on a continuing basis.

On an underlying basis, excluding a2 Pokeno, our EBITDA was up nearly 26% and our EBITDA margin was up 0.9 percentage points to 16.6%. Net profit after tax and EPS were both up just over 19% on an underlying basis, and we're pleased to declare a dividend of 11.5 cents per share.

Turning now to slide 6. At a group level, our sales growth was driven by core products and recent innovation, with some benefit from FX and the inclusion of a2 Pokeno sales, which are first-half weighted.

Our growth continues to be driven by our China and Other Asia segment, led by English label IMF and other nutritionals, supported by China label IMF growth. Our ANZ segment sales were up, primarily driven by growth in Australian liquid milk, with stabilization of IMF sales in the Daigou channel.

Our US business continued its strong performance, driven by growth in our core products and grass-fed liquid milk. I've already covered our product performance up front, I'll move to the next page.

Turning to slide 7, China IMF market returned to growth in the half, up 3.6%, supported by a higher number of newborns during 2024, which was the Year of the Dragon. While the number of newborns in 2025 were lower than the Dragon year, there are positive indicators in 2026, with last year's marriage registrations up 11% and the China central government recently stating that birth rate stabilization is a national priority.

From a product perspective, China label market has stabilized, supported by price recovery and stable volumes. English label growth continues to outperform China label, supported by product innovation and premiumization.

Finally, the A2 protein and ultra-premium segments continue to outperform the category to our advantage. Turning to market share on slide 8, we remain a top-four brand in the China IMF market and continue to gain market share to 8.2%.

Within this, we achieved record-high China label market share of 5.6%, and we remain well-positioned in English label as the second-largest player in the market with just under 20% market share. Turning now to FY26 and the company's outlook on slide 9.

I'm pleased to say that we've had a very good start to the financial year, with revenue trending ahead of our previous expectations across all product categories and markets. As a result, we've increased our FY26 guidance for revenue growth from low double-digit percent to mid double-digit percentage growth versus FY25 continuing operations.

We've also tightened our EBITDA margin range to approximately 15.5% to 16%, which is at the higher end of our previous guidance, and expect our net profit after tax to be up on FY25 reported. As previously announced, the board intends to declare a $300 million special dividend, subject to regulatory approvals being received in connection with amendments to the two existing a2 Pokeno China label registrations for use under the a2 brand.

The amendment process is currently underway and is progressing well. Moving to slide 10, we continue to execute against our growth strategy, which was recently updated after completing our supply chain transformation transactions.

We adjusted our transform supply chain priority to focus on execution of our important transformation program at a2 Pokeno and on building capability to support future innovation and growth. We placed more emphasis on entering new markets, which is now called out as one of our key priorities.

We're tracking well towards our medium-term financial and non-financial goals and remain on track to achieve the majority of our targets, which are outlined on slide 11. Turning to slide 12, our strong first-half result and upgraded FY26 revenue guidance means that we now expect to achieve our medium-term revenue ambition of $2 billion in FY26.

This is a year ahead of our amended plan and in line with our original 2021 Investor Day timing expectations. Market and category growth drivers remain on track, and our emerging market strategy continues to advance, with encouraging early performance in Vietnam as we continue to assess broader opportunities across Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

From an EBITDA margin perspective, the a2 Pokeno acquisition is expected to support margin improvement going forward, as we discussed at our full-year results last year when we announced the transaction. Moving now to slide 13 and covering our supply chain transformation in a bit more detail.

To recap, during the half, we successfully announced and completed the acquisition of a2 Pokeno facility and the sale of MVM, as well as a long-term A1 protein-free milk supply agreement with Fonterra. These transactions mark a key milestone in our supply chain transformation, which has been years in the making.

Essentially, these transactions enabled us to: secure greater market access to the China label IMF market, with strategic control over our registrations; support growth in our core IMF business through portfolio expansion and innovation; accelerate the development of nutritional manufacturing capability; and capture vertical margin and generate attractive overall financial returns. Turning to the next slide, which provides a transformation program update.

A dedicated transformation office, led by a transformation expert, was established prior to the a2 Pokeno acquisition to provide governance, planning, and execution support to our Pokeno, supply chain, and wider a2 team. Key transformation initiatives at a2 Pokeno are progressing as planned, including the China regulatory approval process, blending and canning trials, capital investment activities, ERP implementation, and product development.

Recruitment in manufacturing leadership and operations is well-progressed to support execution of the plan. Overall, the program is tracking well, with some areas ahead of expectations.

That's the end of my introductory comments. Before I hand over to Dave to take you through the financials in more detail, I wanted to publicly thank our global a2 team for their outstanding contribution in delivering the results we've shared with the market today, as well as for their exceptional work in our supply chain transformation.

We're only a small team, but we've achieved a lot so far this year. Over to you, Dave.

David Muscat

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide 16 with a summary of our group P&L.

We delivered net sales revenue of $992.6 million, up 18.8% on prior year. Our gross margin of 48.9% was down 1.1 percentage points due to manufacturing losses at a2 Pokeno, which is currently underutilized ahead of our planned a2 Platinum transition from Synlait in the first half of '27, which will significantly increase production levels and improve a2 Pokeno's financial results.

Excluding these temporary a2 Pokeno losses, our gross margin percentage was slightly up, reflecting lower IMF ingredients costs and a net FX benefit. Distribution costs were up due to higher freight rates and volumes related to liquid milk.

Marketing investment increased in support of our China growth strategy, including awareness-building campaigns to support our recently launched products, including a2 Genesis and kids and seniors fortified powders. Given the second-half weighting of marketing expenses, our reinvestment rate was slightly down.

SG&A was higher due to investment in capability in support of growth in China and supply chain, including a2 Pokeno transformation costs. Our effective tax rate improved due to reduced losses in our US business and utilization of a2 Pokeno losses.

Reported NPAT was $8.4 million, including a loss from discontinued operations of $103.7 million that was almost solely due to the MVM non-cash divestment loss of $103 million. As David mentioned earlier, we have declared an interim dividend of 11.5 cents per share, totaling approximately $83.4 million.

This equates to a payout ratio of approximately 74% of NPAT and is towards the higher end of our policy range. The dividend will be fully franked and unimputed and will be paid on the 2nd of April.

Slides 17 and 18 summarize our segment and product performances, with the key drivers covered throughout the presentation. It should be noted that a2 Pokeno is included in the China and Other Asia segment.

Moving on to slide 19, our closing cash balance at the end of the period was $896.9 million, down $164.3 million versus June '25, mainly due to the supply chain transaction net outflows of $168.7 million associated with the a2 Pokeno acquisition and MVM divestment. Operating cash inflows, excluding interest and tax, were $140.7 million, representing operating cash conversion of 91%, which was in line with expectations and reflecting our inventory rebuild following Synlait manufacturing challenges late in FY25, which temporarily reduced IMF inventory at June '25 and into the first half of FY26.

Investing activity outflows included the previously mentioned supply chain transaction net outflows, capital expenditure, and a reduction in term deposits. Cash flows from financing activities included the repayment of MVM's external banking facility prior to divestment.

Turning to slide 20, our balance sheet remains strong as we invest in our supply chain transformation and continue to execute against our growth strategy. Inventory was up approximately $34 million, reflecting the inventory rebuild previously referenced, with trade payables also increasing accordingly as we continue to progress towards target levels.

Intangible assets were $105 million, primarily due were up $105 million, primarily due to the goodwill associated with the a2 Pokeno acquisition. The reduction in other liabilities primarily relates to the reduction in external MVM loans associated with the divestment that completed during the half.

That concludes the first half '26 financial overview. I'll now hand over to Xiao to take you through the performance of our China label business.

Xiao Li

Thank you, Dave. Starting on slide 22, we delivered China label IMF revenue growth of 6.5%.

This was supported by strong execution, China IMF market stabilization, and a favorable foreign exchange. This is a pleasing result given growth during the period was partially constrained by market shifts towards English label and supply.

We achieved a record China label IMF market share, reflecting strong execution across both online and offline channels, and supported by strong new user recruitment in FY25, which is now graduating into later stages. Offline IMF, other nutritionals also delivered growth, driven by recent senior and kids innovation that's resonating well with consumers.

Turning to the next slide, overall, we continue to gain share in China label, with total market share reaching a new high of 5.6% as well brand health. Performance was strong across both our MBS and DOL channels, with each reaching record shares as we continue to execute well in our key channels.

Moving to slide 24, new user recruitment remains a key focus. In mid-December, we launched a targeted marketing campaign in China, partnering with the well-known My Little Pony franchise.

The campaign was designed to attract new users for the Year of the Horse. We designed maternity gift pack and a fully integrated campaign across online and offline channels, including social media, which has generated strong consumer engagement and user-generated content.

Since launch, our brand has moved from ninth to first in search share on RED, and Stage 1 new user recruitment has increased versus pre-campaign levels. Turning to slide 25 and taking a closer look at our kids and senior nutritional products, which are performing well.

Our kids milk powder product has supported the turnaround in China label Stage 4 performance, with the product now leading international brands in key channels. This reflects strong consumer acceptance, supported by competitive formulation, good taste, and appealing package.

In senior nutrition, we are building share in the ultra-premium segment, with steady online growth supported by targeted seasonal campaigns and new user recruitment through family gifting. Across both categories, we continue to leverage the strength of the a2 brand in IMF to attract new users and expand our offering to other life stages.

Slide 26 provides an overview of our new kids fortified UHT product, which we have recently soft-launched into Costco and select online platforms. This is our first locally sourced UHT product in China, which enables improved freshness and height support formulation, addresses an area of strong consumer interest.

Moving to slide 27, our focus on innovation has seen us expand our other nutritional portfolio through entry into a new category. The pediatric supplement category is a rapidly growing market, with approximately 8 billion New Zealand dollars in retail sales value, and is an attractive adjacency to our core infant formula business.

It is a fragmented category where we believe the a2 brand can be successful. Continuing to the next slide, slide 28 provides an overview of our new China label pediatric supplements range, known as a2 Zhiyi, which will be progressively rolled out during the second half of the financial year.

We have four products in the range, which are focused on high-growth areas and formulated to provide functional benefits aligned to what the a2 brand is known for by consumers. The locally manufactured products have a new and innovative packaging to maximize consumer and trade appeal.

Near-term sales are not expected to be material. However, the long-term potential of the category could be significant.

I will now hand over to Yohan to take you through the English label.

Yohan Senaratne

Thanks, Xiao, and good morning, everyone. Looking at slide 29, English label IMF continues to grow, with sales up nearly 21%.

Growth was supported by overall market expansion, growth in our combined CBEC and O2O channels, and growing contributions from our a2 Genesis product. It is also pleasing to see our ANZ IMF sales in growth, with the Daigou channel stabilizing and continued share and sales growth in retail.

We continued to deliver solid momentum in other nutritionals across all channels, led by strong growth in our milk powders portfolio, with additional support from a2 Smart Nutrition and a2 Nutrition for Mothers. We also saw increased UHT volumes, particularly in Vietnam.

Turning to slide 30, momentum in the English label market has continued, with English label now accounting for 20% of the total IMF market. a2 remains well-positioned to benefit from the growth in this segment as the second-largest brand in the English label market, with our market share just shy of 20% and our online channels continuing to grow.

a2 continues to perform well in the CBEC and O2O channels, with significant sales growth. On an MAT basis, a2 was the leading share gainer on CBEC from June to December last year.

Continuing on to the next slide, the rapid growth of HMO and specialty product segments continues to be a growth driver of the English label market. Our a2 Genesis HMO formulation has now been in market for a year and is performing well.

We have invested heavily to build awareness, consideration, and trial, with our sales building month on month. In the first half, a2 Genesis represented 6% of all our CBEC channel consumer sales, with more than 50% of sales being for early stages, which supports future potential.

Turning now to slide 32, we continue to develop our Vietnam business, with our distribution expanding significantly during the half. a2 IMF and other nutritionals products are now ranged in over 1,000 MBS stores, and initial listings have commenced across national key accounts and e-commerce platforms.

As we execute in Vietnam, we remain focused on our broader emerging market strategy, assessing opportunities to further expand into other markets, with a particular focus on Southeast Asia and the Middle East. I'll now hand over to Eleanor, who will take you through ANZ.

Eleanor Khor

Thank you, Yohan. Turning to slide 33.

Our ANZ liquid milk business has continued to perform well. We delivered double-digit revenue growth driven by growth in both our core and lactose-free ranges.

In terms of market share, we outperformed the category, with overall share increasing to 11.5% and lactose-free achieving a record high MAT share of 20.6%. During the period, we were also pleased to complete the final stages of upgrades at our Kyabram processing facility to strengthen our operational capability and capacity.

Moving to slide 34. In 2026, a2 proudly became the Australian Open's first-ever dairy and milk partner in the tournament's 120-year history.

We activated across our priority markets in Australia and China, with the partnership delivering positive results. During the tournament, a2 Milk was the only dairy milk to be served on site, reaching more than a million attendees, and our bespoke co-branded frappes became a viral sensation on social media, driving exceptional visibility and brand engagement.

With that, I'll hand back to David.

David Bortolussi

Thanks, Eleanor, and before I move on, I wanted to acknowledge that this will be your last investor call with a2 and thank you publicly for your outstanding contribution to the company over the past seven years in leading our strategy function and ANZ business, which you've done exceptionally well. Thank you very much.

I'll now cover our US business on behalf of Kevin Bush, who is unable to join us today. Our US business has had a very good start to the year, with revenue growth of 29%, driven by our core range and grass-fed innovation across all channels.

Our revenue growth was supported by positive market trends during the half, with premium and specialty liquid milk market value growth of 11%, which was higher than total category growth of around 4%. Our market share continues to increase, with growth in household penetration and consumption, and our profitability improved, with an EBITDA loss of $3.4 million.

Finally, from an IMF perspective, our FDA submission remains under review and is progressing. That concludes today's formal presentation, and I'll now hand over to the operator for Q&A.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. Please pick up the handset to ask your question.

Your first question today comes from Thomas Kierath with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Thomas Kierath

Guys, obviously a lot of focus on the birth rate and the weakness of it that's been reported more recently. Just be interested in your comments around how Stage 1 I guess is growing versus Stage 2 and Stage 3, and whether you're seeing any initial signs of that weakening birth rate in your numbers.

Then I've just got one on Genesis as well. Thanks.

David Bortolussi

Thanks, Tom. I might ask Xiao to comment on the Stage performance at the moment and an outlook around that.

Xiao Li

Yeah. In the first half of fiscal year '26, we see Stage 2 have a very strong growth, Stage 3 improved, and Stage 4 dropping, but will helped by the newly launched kids fortified powder, we have a very strong growth combined Stage 4 and kids fortified powder.

For the Stage 1, due to the supply constraint, we did see Stage 1 is dropping as well losing share. We are started the what we call early stage campaign, as we show in the slides, the My Little Pony, since the December to boost back the early new user recruitment after the improved supply.

Now we see a pretty encouraging early signal of improved new user recruitment comparing with the previous month. Also, if you look at China label track records in the history, like in the fiscal year '25, our Stage 1 share are improved from 3.1% in the previous year to the first half 3.9%, and the second half of more than 4.2%.

We are pretty confident that we are going to turnaround the Stage 1 performance with all the focused effort on the early new user recruitment.

Thomas Kierath

That's great. Thanks, Xiao.

Just secondly on Genesis, I know initially you were investing pretty heavily in that brand, the sales that you were generating, you weren't actually necessarily making much profit as you were reinvesting. Where abouts is that at the moment, and when do you start to see, I guess, a profit contribution coming through from Genesis?

David Bortolussi

Yohan, would you like to talk to Genesis?

Yohan Senaratne

Yeah. Look, I think you're right.

In terms of the focus for the Genesis product, we're definitely looking to invest in driving awareness through to trial. The product itself makes quite a strong gross margin.

It's just slightly below our Platinum gross margin. Then over time, we expect, obviously, the net contribution post the marketing spend to improve.

At the moment, yeah, absolutely, we're reinvesting behind the brand, but I expect that net contribution to improve over time.

David Bortolussi

Percentage margins are lower, but dollar margins are similar.

Thomas Kierath

Great.

Yohan Senaratne

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from Josephine Forde with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Josephine Forde

Congratulations, David and team, on the result. My question's also in a similar vein on the China label market.

Can you talk through your expectations on the continued brand consolidation just given it was stable in the half, and then also just a bit more colour on the market returning to growth and pricing increasing too?

David Bortolussi

Josephine, I think the even though there was a sort of a temporary pause in the level of consolidation, the top five at 58%, top 10 at sort of 78%. There were some kind of winners and losers within that within the sort of top five and top 10 during the period, but we we fundamentally believe that the brand concentration trend will continue in the market, and certainly the top five will gain a disproportionate amount of share over time.

Maybe in time, there might even be, corporate consolidation as well, which we've seen some of in everything sort of the last five years or so. In terms of the growth going forward, it's pleasing to see like I've been here five years, and in effect 10 half-year full-year and half-year reports, and first time we've seen the category in growth for the half at at 3 and a bit percent.

That's that's based on Kantar numbers, and I do sort of caveat that that Kantar Kantar is reviewing their their growth numbers in March, it's just important to look out for that. Definitely English label category is in growth and China label is, flat to up.

The outlook, we we continue to believe there will be ups and downs in the newborns numbers. The Year of the Dragon was probably higher than market expectations, and last year clearly lower than expectations, but there's good reason to believe that that the newborns will be up next year, or this this calendar year.

We're seeing marriage rates are up 11%, the last three quarters are up 20%, as you would have seen. We've also got insight into in terms of maternal registrations as well, and we're seeing those being up, high single digit at the moment as well for the first calendar quarter, for the March quarter of this year as well.

I think the newborns will be up this year. It's difficult to predict how much, but, probably in the low to mid-8s.

There's, there is long-term socio-demographic pressure on the newborns rate over time, we're still expecting that to decline by low single digits, but a degree of premiumization in the market to support the category hopefully around flat. As we've always said, this is a share game for us.

We've been very successful, with a strong brand and our execution behind that, innovation fueling growth now. Where we've managed to, almost double our share from, just over 4% back in 2021 to over 8% now in the market, and we think we've still got significant market share growth opportunities both in China label and English label.

English label is doing really well at the moment, and China label has been growing for for many years, and we'll have the benefit of the two additional registrations that we that we've obtained through the Pokeno acquisition shortly as well. I think, in essence, I think the market should be relatively flat, and we still have a significant share opportunity going in infant and other category expansion opportunities.

I think the pediatric supplements market entry is pretty significant milestone today. Plenty of growth opportunities for us in and outside the infant category in China and new markets.

Josephine Forde

Thank you. Then just on the guidance upgrades, since November, what's driving such an improved outlook?

Is this driven by English label, or is it a more positive backdrop for the China label improvement, or are you seeing early read-throughs on these new marketing campaigns in the China label?

David Bortolussi

All of the above, and probably the only thing you're missing there the infant category has been pretty robust for us, and the growth has been slightly higher than we expected. Certainly the liquid milk and other nutritionals growth at the beginning of the year and even at the AGM, we didn't expect such high growth in those categories, which is really pleasing.

That'll probably come off a bit in the second half, but you can tell from our guidance we're still expecting pretty robust growth for the full year with mid double-digit sales growth. All of those are contributing, and it's kind of very pleasing for us as a team to see that really all categories and all markets are performing really well at the moment.

It's terrific to see. It's a real credit to the team and also the health of the a2 brand.

Josephine Forde

Great to see. Thanks very much, guys, and congratulations again.

Operator

Your next question comes from Matt Montgomerie with Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.

Matt Montgomerie

I might just come to Pokeno to start. Clearly things are tracking quite well there.

Just within the EBITDA losses for the first half of 9.8, I think, of that, what was related to the transformation costs? Then secondly, yeah, I suppose your guidance for the second half implies quite a meaningful step-up in losses.

I appreciate there's a full six-month period, but, yeah, just be interesting to understand that. Then with Pokeno tracking ahead of expectations for this year, you haven't changed your FY27 outlook for Pokeno.

Maybe if you just sort of step through that as well and why sort of that couldn't be improved over time as well.

David Bortolussi

Yeah. Dave, do you want

David Muscat

to... I'll take that.

Hey, Matt. In terms of transformation, assume it's about 5 in terms of the transformation, so that's going through SG&A and the residuals going through gross margin.

In terms of the step-up in losses, I think the way you've got to think about it is that we are significantly ramping up the capacity of that site over the course of this financial year in advance of the transition at the start of the next financial year. Our under-recoveries are going to get worse before they get better.

That's why we have the ramp in terms of the second half. In terms of FY20 In terms of why it's better overall in terms of our sort of estimates around Pokeno is that we set our expectations for this year at the time of the full-year announcement where we were outside the company.

We hadn't bought it yet, we hadn't got in. It was all based on our estimations from due diligence, etc., etc.

Now we're getting closer to the numbers, and we can give more refined sort of outcomes. Also, what helped us slightly is that we have been doing some of our Platinum canning as we alluded to at the AGM during the course of this year, which helps us a little bit as well.

None of that changes our expectations for next year.

Matt Montgomerie

Perfect. Then secondly, just on guidance on China label.

I know you haven't given breakdowns by the pieces, but would it be fair to assume similar levels of growth in the second half year on year as experienced in the first half? I know, Xiao, you mentioned earlier sort of there were supply issues impacting the half you've reported now, and there's been sort of numerous moving parts over the last couple of halves with supply shortages.

Just expectations for China label growth in the second half.

David Bortolussi

Matt, we're not providing sort of individual business unit or label-related growth guidance for the second half. As you'd appreciate, it's still uncertain.

It's a long way to go through the half. What I can say is that in terms of the infant category, as you would expect, we're expecting double-digit growth in infant in the second half.

For liquid milk and other nutritionals, we're expecting that the rate of growth to come off a bit, which you'd sort of have to conclude based on the guidance. We're confident in China label and English label growth in the second half, but as to the specifics around it, I'm reluctant to sort of provide guidance on the components.

Xiao mentioned the supply challenges in this half. It's probably less of a sales impact in the half, it's more I think Xiao was referring to the impact on user recruitment, which we had to reduce our level of activity during that first quarter, but we've certainly ramped that up subsequently.

That's the experience we had actually going back a year in FY25. In the first quarter of '25, we had a similar experience.

That's where that comment comes from, and definitely with the lower newborns and some of the pressure off from the supply chain constraints we've had, we're very focused on increasing our new user recruitment and our early-stage share.

Matt Montgomerie

No, perfect. Thanks for the colour.

Operator

Your next question comes from Julia Destic with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Julia de Sterke

Hi. Morning, guys.

Just wanted to ask first back to some colour on the industry numbers. Just in terms of the English label category, I know now you're kind of cycling some stronger industry numbers in that category.

Where do you expect that penetration number to get to over the next couple of years? Are you sort of expecting that strong cadence of growth until you get back to kind of that 28% peak penetration, or is this kind of industry growth starting to tail off in your view?

David Bortolussi

We're not seeing it tail off at the moment. Cross-border business is growing quite healthily, double-digit growth over the last four halves, which is terrific.

As we're only at 20% of the total category, and it was a peak of 28. Actually, it was even higher prior to that, the 28% in FY19 just prior to COVID.

We think it's still got some way to go, but I don't think anyone can be conclusive in terms of where it'll get to, but we still think it's got some more category growth ahead of it, because there are some advantages that English label has over China label at the moment, particularly on formulation. Then from our point of view, from a share point of view, at just under 20% share, we had a sort of peak share in the category in the mid-20s, and we're definitely focused on, over time, getting back to sort of mid-20 share in the category as well.

That's probably all the colour I can give on that at the moment, Julia.

Julia de Sterke

Got it. Thank you.

Then just wanted to ask on global competitor recalls that have been going around over the last couple of months. Acknowledge that it's probably still pretty early on, you might not have too much colour around what the ultimate impacts will be, but has this factored at all into your guidance changes or how you're thinking about the market over the next couple of years and your market share opportunities?

David Bortolussi

No, it hasn't, Julia. It's a very unfortunate sort of circumstances for consumers, trade, and the brands that are involved, and we're definitely not sort of tactically trying to be opportunistic about this.

We wish all those involved the best, because the infant formula category this happens from time to time, and it's very difficult circumstances. That's not factoring into our guidance.

We're not banking on a major shifts towards our brand, English label or China label in that regard. If there was any shift, it would probably be more related to English label, because most of the recall activity has been in that space, but that's probably all I'd like to say on that at the moment.

Julia de Sterke

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Sam Teeger with Citi. Please go ahead.

Sam Teeger

Hi, all. David, earlier on, you made a comment about potential for corporate consolidation.

I was keen to understand just the thinking behind that and how you see things playing out.

David Bortolussi

Hi, Sam. I think in consumer goods, the most important thing is brand concentration, no matter what the corporate ownership structures are in the marketplace.

That's what we're primarily focused on, and the category dynamics lead to that. I was just mentioned in passing that there has been some corporate consolidation by Nestlé and yili over time in particular.

There is possibility of that, but we're more focused on and how we present that market share information is by brand, which is the most relevant no matter who owns what brands in the marketplace. It was just an in passing comment, I don't think any corporate consolidation is imminent in the market at the moment.

I think most of the players in the industry are really focused on their own portfolios.

Sam Teeger

Cool. Just wondering, when you saw the birth rate for 2025 come out last month, how did you balance up whether you should upgrade your FY26 guidance now or potentially hold off for a few more months to ensure that the strong momentum continues?

David Bortolussi

We sort of undertake a regular forecasting rhythm to our business, and based on our year-to-date performance and outlook for the year to go, it's pretty clear at the moment that we should be in a position to achieve mid double-digit growth. I don't think that's particularly influenced by the newborns number at the moment, because the impact on Stage 1 in the market, it's not as severe as what the decline in the newborns is, because what's going on in the market is you've got sort of breastfeeding rates have declined.

That's not something that we would promote, because breastfeeding is obviously best, but that has declined in the market based on the evidence that we've seen by different reporting on that. Also the extent and use of early-stage product has increased as well.

There's a prolonged use of early-stage product as well. I don't think you should expect the impact to be as significant, and it's also less than 20% of the market and of our business as well.

I think it's not a huge driver of this year's outlook, and, as Xiao said, we're very focused on ensuring that our early-stage recruitment is optimized and we set ourselves up well for the future. Not a big factor at the moment, Sam.

Sam Teeger

Then on the decline in breastfeeding rates, what do you attribute that to?

David Bortolussi

I think some of it may well be economics from what we've heard. A lot of mothers are for economic reasons are feeling that they need to get back to the workplace pretty quickly, I think there's probably some of that going on, and there's some social sort of demographic trends around that as well, which I prefer not to comment on the call.

I think there's some underlying drivers there. It's actually stepped down quite a bit, several points over the last year or two, it's quite significant.

Sam Teeger

All right. Thanks, David.

David Bortolussi

Thanks, Sam.

Operator

Your next question comes from Adrian Allbon with Jarden. Please go ahead.

Adrian Allbon

Oh, good morning, team. Maybe this was one for David.

Just looking on slide 18 and just trying to understand the other nutritionals growth. It's sort of when you back out the Pokeno contribution, it's just short of $30 million in terms of the China and Other Asia category.

Are you able to kind of give us a steer of how much of that is these new products?

David Bortolussi

It's pretty significant, the growth in kids and seniors, and then outside of that category, you've got Genesis contributing quite a lot of the growth. I can come with you a little bit later, but probably overall, when you look at our growth the investment we've made in innovation over recent years, it's really pleasing to see that come through.

If you look at our total growth for the half of just under 19%, if you adjust for the sort of FX impact and sort of Pokeno in the period, you've got sort of 15-ish percent growth underlying, and over a third of that in the period was driven by innovation, specifically Genesis, the kids advanced product in China label, and the seniors range that we've introduced. Now those products weren't there in the comparative period, so that's really just 6 to 12 months of growth coming through, which is pretty outstanding.

It is making a meaningful difference is the answer.

Adrian Allbon

Of the total growth, which was 19, you sort of said underlying is 15, and the innovation

David Bortolussi

If you back out currency and the a2 Pokeno impact, the sales associated with that, they're about two percentage points each, call it around 15, yeah. I'm saying that over a third of that underlying core growth is due to innovation, with the rest being the core portfolio.

Adrian Allbon

Okay. Within that, obviously the fortified products and Genesis are the main lifters in that third of the 15%?

David Bortolussi

It's around a third. 30%, let's say 30% for the half.

Adrian Allbon

Okay. No, that's cool.

Thank you for that. Just staying on the revenue side, just in terms of the pediatric entry, is the unit economics quite similar to infant, it's probably an outsourced manufacture, but is it quite a high gross margin?

David Bortolussi

It's quite a high-margin category, similar to infant, yeah. Which is great, and allows us obviously to reinvest to establish our awareness and consideration and trial in the category.

We're attracted to the margin structure associated with it relative to our other nutritionals, the rest of that category, which is lower margin, but improving with the new innovation we're bringing to market.

Adrian Allbon

Thank you. Just in terms of the guidance, I'm presuming that is the upgrade to 15% or mid-point mid-double-digits, is that assume returning to target inventory levels?

Or is that a risk buffer within your upgrade?

David Bortolussi

It assumes quite be specific about it, but it does assume that we receive adequate supply during the period from Synlait, and that there's no major issues or disruption associated with our a2 Pokeno facility and transition and all that, yeah.

Adrian Allbon

Okay. Then just on the marketing side, the marketing intensity for the half, it seemed to sort of be at the low ebb of sort of 17% on a continuing basis, because I think when we were talking about that reset at the last result, on a continuing basis, it was I guess the track record have been more like 18 of late.

Are we expecting quite a step-up in the second half to support these new programs?

David Bortolussi

Yeah. In the first half, we pulled back a little bit on our investment, principally related to what Xiao highlighted in terms of supply constraints.

We pulled back a little bit on our new user recruitment activity, and that's why it's lower in the first half, but we did invest behind our new innovation that we brought to market. That's why it's at 17 at 17% in the first half.

The second half will step up, as we invest more in new user recruitment and our innovation in the marketplace. That'll step up.

Overall, our reinvestment rate will be around the 18% mark. It's similar to actually, in a way, Adrian, to what happened in FY25, because we had supply constraints in the first quarter then and we pulled back a bit on marketing.

If you have a look at the marketing reinvestment rate in '25, that was 17.5 in the first half and 18.8 in the second half, and overall 18.1. I'm not saying specifically what it's going to be in the second half, but it's kind of a similar profile for similar reasons in a way.

Adrian Allbon

Okay. No, that's helpful.

Just a clarification on those Pokeno losses, did you say that they were $5 million, and I think originally at the last result, you were expecting 10, is that correct? I just didn't quite hear the end of

David Bortolussi

No, I was referring to the half's numbers. So $9.8 million EBITDA loss, and five of that's in SG&A.

It's only to the end of December. There'll be more transformation costs in the second half.

Adrian Allbon

Transformation costs in the first half?

David Bortolussi

There was $5 million in the first half for transformation costs in SG&A, and we've guided to about $10 million for the full year.

Adrian Allbon

Okay. No, that's cool.

Thanks for that.

Operator

Your next question comes from Craig Woolford with MST Marquee. Please go ahead.

Craig Woolford

Morning, David. Can I just ask a question around the market share performance, your English label market share performance, which was steady?

Just trying to get a sense on what triggers you see for an improvement in that market share. The reason for the question is the commentary on Genesis looks very strong, and some of the other products look stronger, is there an inference that something else is losing share?

David Bortolussi

Good question. I might let Yohan answer that.

Yohan Senaratne

Yeah. If you look on slide 30, as it shows our market share, particularly if we look at the CBEC market share, we're slightly up on an MAT basis.

If we look at the December monthly number, we're up a bit more, so that's about 20.1%. A part of the growth is obviously there's the Platinum, which has been the base product for many years, but what we're seeing is incremental market share upside from a2 Genesis, and the primary channel of sale for that product is CBEC.

That's why you can see the CBEC market share trending upwards. The other parts of the business are there or thereabouts, but as we roll out Genesis, we'll also roll it out into more O2O channel store networks as well.

If we look at the English label market share trajectory, we're hoping to get to 25%, and currently overall less than 20%, there's about 5% market share that we're looking to gain. Part of that will come from Platinum continuing to improve, but then products like a2 Genesis, of course, offer some upside opportunity incremental as well to get us to 25.

David Bortolussi

Share growth in CBEC channel has been fantastic.

Yohan Senaratne

We're the number one on MAT basis for the last six months. That's primarily driven by the success of a2 Genesis.

David Bortolussi

In the half, the number one as well.

Yohan Senaratne

Yeah.

Craig Woolford

What would drive Platinum share gains? It's been a relatively steady a2 share of EL for a few half-year periods now.

What do you see as the step-change in that Platinum products share of the market?

Yohan Senaratne

You're right. It's been the workhorse for English label for many years and still is the biggest contributor to English label.

Of course, as we go forward, we'll also look to upgrade our Platinum proposition. The last time we upgraded the proposition was back in 2022, and so as we move forward, we'll also look to upgrade the proposition and the packaging as well.

David Bortolussi

Craig, that as we transition from Synlait to our new facility, a2 Pokeno facility, as you would expect, taking the opportunity to upgrade the formula and packaging.

Craig Woolford

Right, that's clear. Just a quick one just on the guidance, the only thing that sort of moved in the other direction was just the cash conversion.

Apologies if I've misheard something, but just wanted to it was 80 to 90, now it's 80. What's the reason for that shift in that cash conversion?

David Muscat

Craig, probably the biggest change is the timing of the working capital build at Pokeno. As the transition that Yohan's just talking about in terms of the Platinum moving in, we're going to have to start to produce base powder towards the end of the year and the start of the next financial year.

We've just got better line of sight over the timing of that. It's not worse than what it was, it's the same working capital build that we called out previously, it's just the timing of that working capital build.

Craig Woolford

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Richard Barwick with CLSA. Please go ahead.

Richard Barwick

Hi, team. I've also got a question on English label, because there's a couple of things here that don't quite add up, I don't think, because if you look at the English label market, you're saying it was up 12%, well, I guess the Kantar number's saying it's up 12% for the half, and you were growing your English label IMF revenue by 21%, but your share is holding about flat.

Do we put down all that difference, the difference between the 21% growth and the market up 12, is that Vietnam and other markets that sort of make up the difference, or am I missing something here?

Yohan Senaratne

Part of it is Vietnam, and Vietnam's accelerated quite a bit. I think the key thing is that we've seen Genesis as well growing, if you look at our PCP, we didn't have Genesis in it, and so that's a large contributor of our sales, but that's concentrated in the CBEC channel.

Then the last thing is we've been working on O2O channels, you'll see our O2O share with Daigou is a little bit lower, and we've been making some operational upgrades to improve our consumer experience there. Yes, there's a few things going on there.

I understand where you're coming from, but some of it is the Other Asia, if you like, outside of China. Some of it is a2 Genesis, and some of it is some of the work we're doing in the O2O space.

David Bortolussi

Richard, I'd also just Kantar data is helpful, and looking at the longer-term trends, there's always anomalies in that. If you look at the Kantar from a growth point of view rather than share, Smart Path, the data for the total English category is up quite a lot, over 20%.

Richard Barwick

That's exactly what I was going to question. You put the caveat at the bottom of the Kantar data, do we take those share numbers with a grain of salt?

Because that is a big difference, 21% plays the market at 12.

David Bortolussi

Yeah. I think Kantar's more relevant the more aggregated you look at it.

Total market, China label, English label, but when you get down into the below that, it becomes more challenging. They review their methodology from time to time, and it's obviously a panel-based survey.

It's the only full-market survey that is available, I wouldn't say take it with a grain of salt, pinch of salt. It's really it is relevant, but I'd just look at it over time in terms of trends, yeah.

Richard Barwick

Okay. Right

David Bortolussi

oh. If we excluded it, then we'd probably be criticized for excluding it, we're just including it to be helpful.

Richard Barwick

No, no, I get that.

David Bortolussi

Knowing that most of the analysts don't have access to it, yeah.

Richard Barwick

No, no, I get that. I was just surprised that the difference between the 21% that you're growing, so that's a very clear number, and just really wanted to clarify, do we put the rest of it down to Vietnam and co, and it sounds like that's the biggest differential.

David Bortolussi

It helps, but we're still growing quite significantly in the core business and English label and Genesis, yeah.

Richard Barwick

Yeah. Okay.

Right oh, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Marcus Curley with UBS. Please go ahead.

Marcus Curley

Good morning. I just wondered if we could start with the slide you're talking about the new pediatric supplements for the existing China label range.

Maybe it's for Xiao, but just interested to know whether this is resulting in a substantial change in stocking by the mother-and-baby stores. Do they see this as now four products rather than one, or is it a relatively small component of what's likely to roll out in the stores themselves?

Yohan Senaratne

Hi, Marcus, it's Yohan here. I can help answer some of those questions.

Firstly, the supplements market is quite fragmented. There's many different products looking at many different functional benefits, and often when consumers are looking to find supplements category, they're buying for a specific functional benefit.

Firstly, it's helpful to have a range of products, because each product is targeted at a specific proposition and a specific consumer need. These products are sold into both MBS stores and also online on DOL.

When we look at MBS stores, if you think of what their key categories of sale, it's infant formula, supplements, and diapers. Supplements is a big driver of their business, and so having another set of supplements products in the market in their store that is effectively companion to some of their a2 products in the early life nutrition space is obviously helpful for them as an additional sale.

It's probably best to think of each product as an individual product suited to a specific need. You can see even the ones that we have on the page on slide 28, they're very you can see, they're focused on either immunity, allergy, gut health, or brain and eye health, areas that a2 are known for in their early life nutrition space.

Over time, we'd look to build on those depending on the success of these.

Marcus Curley

It's hard to say from the pictures, but in terms of are these individual infant formula products or just a container with supplements in them?

Yohan Senaratne

No, these are a container with supplements in them, they're not infant formula, they're supplement products. You can see on the picture, it's a container with a set of supplements inside, the sachets within each, with the exception of the brain and eye health, which is a soft gel in a blister.

Marcus Curley

Could you give us any perspective on how big the supplement market is as a share of infant formula in China label?

Yohan Senaratne

Gotcha. If we look at the total supplements market, it's an $8 billion market for pediatric supplements, represents 15% to 20% of the total supplements market in China, which is far bigger, of course.

Is

David Bortolussi

Infant, the last time we quantified that is about $28 billion.

Yohan Senaratne

Yeah.

David Bortolussi

In our annual reports, 8 versus 28. It's quite significant when we look at all the adjacencies that we're expanding into.

This is the single biggest category, and most of that's addressable.

Marcus Curley

The competitors there are sort of aligned with the infant formula brands? For example, Danone would have the largest share, or is it a different dynamic?

Yohan Senaratne

No, it's a different dynamic. On slide 27, you can see the market shares by competitors in the online space.

There's a lot of new brands entering the market. It's highly fragmented, and so there's an opportunity for a trusted brand to enter the market, such as a2.

Marcus Curley

Thank you. Then quickly just on gross margin, David, you called out an improvement in the half.

What are you seeing in terms of those trends? Are you seeing increasing benefits from lower ingredients costs, or what should we be assuming

David Bortolussi

there? We saw some of the lower milk and lactose costs coming through in the first half, but we're now seeing that reverse and some pressures coming through whey proteins.

Then we've got some counters to that in terms of the mix of business should be more IMF-weighted in the second half. We wouldn't say overly too much change coming through in the near term.

Marcus Curley

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Phillip Kimber with E&P Capital. Please go ahead.

Phillip Kimber

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question.

Sorry if it's already been asked before, but the early stage, Stage 1 and Stage 2, previously you'd shown some market charts in prior reports of what Stage 1 and Stage 2 had been doing, and after the Year of the Dragon, Stage 1 had grown rapidly and had started to come off. I couldn't see anything in this presentation.

Has that now sort of moved to Stage 2 products at the market level? I know you guys are winning market share and got good growth, but just trying to understand the market.

Then to put some context around that, I think you've said your China label sales are roughly half Stage 1, Stage 2 and the remainder is Stage 3, Stage 4. Is that the same across English label as well?

As a total infant formula business, are you roughly skewed half to early stage and half to Stage 3? Thanks.

David Bortolussi

I'll hand to Xiao on the Stage 1 trajectory in the market and our share, but so on the mix of Stage share in the business, we're roughly it's just under 50% across the total group early stage products, Stage 1 and 2, with China label being slightly higher and English label being slightly lower, if that helps, Phil. Xiao, do you want to comment on Stage?

I think Phil's question is around Stage 1 growth in the market and our share around that.

Phillip Kimber

Yes,

David Bortolussi

and Stage 2 if you don't mind, guys.

Phillip Kimber

Yeah.

Xiao Li

Stage 2, yeah. Stage 4 China label in the first half is strong growth, the benefit from FY25, we have a lot of Stage 1, new user recruitment, cycling into the Stage 2.

If you look forward, it's going to be either flat or down, due to now they are moving to the Stage 3, yeah. Stage 3 in the first half is improving, but you are going to see a stronger growth, in the second half when the Stage 2 consumers moving to the Stage 3.

Stage 1, as you can imagine, the whole segment is going on a down trend, because of combination of less newborn baby. Hopefully it can quickly bounce back into the new year.

Also kind of help by this David mentioned the prolonged usage and increase the penetration. Those are all a tailwind for the Stage 1.

I think for us is a more of a share gain, in the new user recruitment, because we have done extremely well in the past, demonstrated that we can almost grow the new user recruitment by 30%. Pity is we are constrained a little bit in this first half by the supply constraint, but now we are put all the focus, energy and money back, try to turn around.

We are confident we are going to see a improving trend on Stage 1, no matter the market are going down or worse, yeah.

David Bortolussi

Phil, just on the Stage trend, I know most of you don't have access to Kantar, but so if you look at the Stage, in the half for China label, the 2% growth is Stage 1 was still in growth, high single digit mid to high single digit. Stage 2 was, low double digit.

Stage 3 was down single digit, but the second quarter was flat as that sort of graduation comes through, and Stage 4 was down sort of high double digit, if that helps in terms of the Stage relative growth in the market at the moment.

Phillip Kimber

Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back the conference to Mr.

Bortolussi for closing remarks.

David Bortolussi

Thanks, everybody, for joining the call. I guess in closing, we continue to execute our growth strategy, focusing on maximizing our opportunities in China IMF, adjacent categories, and new markets, which you've hopefully seen a lot of today.

We're pleased with our supply chain transformation progress following the acquisition of a2 Pokeno. I look forward to catching up with most of you during the course of the next couple of weeks, and thanks very much for joining the call.

Cheers.