Daniele Della Seta
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations at doValue.
I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO, and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present doValue's Q2 2026 financial results. It is the first quarter to fully reflect the consolidation of Coeo.
This transformative transaction is already contributing to a stronger growth profile for the group. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance and the key market dynamics.
Davide will then provide a detailed review of the second quarter financial results, cash generation, and financial structure. We will conclude, as usual, with a Q&A session.
Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Manuela Franchi
Good morning, everyone. The first half of 2026 marks an important step in the evolution of doValue.
The group is now more diversified across geographies, clients, and credit segments. Digital receivables have become a material part of our revenue and earnings base, while our traditional servicing platform continues to provide scale, predictable cash flows, and AI-insulated servicing capabilities.
The half year delivered on the priorities we set out for this phase: growth in digital receivables, profitability, a stronger capital structure, and an established servicing platform. Let me highlight four key developments from the first half.
First, digital receivables, the business of Coeo, continue to deliver strong growth. Revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, supported by 5 million new files onboarded during the period.
Coeo's client base continued to diversify beyond its historical anchor relationship, and growth remains ahead of the assumption in our original acquisition case. Second, pro forma group EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, reached €121 million.
In the second quarter alone, EBITDA grew 21% year-on-year. Profitability benefits from Coeo inroads on AI automation, while the doValue business continued to implement disciplined cost actions.
Third, we further strengthened our capital structure. The recent refinancing extended our debt maturities and is expected to generate approximately €4 million of annual interest savings, while reinforcing liquidity and financial flexibility.
The picture of the first half is a group with a faster-growing engine, a more efficient cost base, a longer and cheaper debt structure, and a servicing platform that keeps replenishing itself. That is the base from which we run the second half.
Let's now turn to page 4 and look more closely at digital receivables. This is the engine of the group's next phase of growth, and in the first half it's accelerated.
Revenue was up 25% year-on-year, and EBITDA reached €46 million. The quality of that growth matters as much as the rate.
Germany, which is by far our largest market for digital receivables, grew 21% year-on-year. This is scale compounding on an already large base, not a small base effect.
It comes with efficiency, not with headcount. Indeed, new files handled per full-time employee were up 21% year-on-year, as automation absorbed the additional volume.
Second, diversification is accelerating. Collection revenue from clients other than Coeo's anchor customer was up 50% year-on-year.
Behind that number, there is a concrete commercial pipeline. We signed 11 new contracts this year, worth more than €10 million of incremental annualized revenue and around 350,000 new files per year across six different sectors: telcos, utilities, insurance, mobility, e-commerce, and financial services.
This is the practical answer to the question of whether the platform can expand beyond its anchor relationship and beyond buy now, pay later. It already is.
Third, a word on the own portfolio, which is the part of this business that is least familiar to our investors. We hold a receivable portfolio with an expected market value of €120 million to €140 million, with an estimated remaining collection value of €170 million.
Let me be clear on where this is going. The disposal process on this portfolio is progressing, and we expect to complete it by end of this year.
At that point, the group will be fully asset-light, a pure servicing and receivable management platform, with no balance sheet exposure to the receivables we manage. Two points are worth making while that process is completed.
First, this portfolio is limited in size relative to our balance sheet, and it turns into cash very quickly. €61 million of collections in six months against €120 million to €140 million of market value speaks for itself.
To give you a measure of how quickly this portfolio converts into cash, receivables purchased in the second Q have already returned 20% of the amount invested during the same quarter. Second, for as long as we hold it, the group retains that cash generation.
The time to completion is not a cost to us; it adds cash flow in the meanwhile. We will complete the sale on the right terms, and we still expect that to be within this year.
Let's now turn to page 5, which shows how that growth is actually produced: deepening automation in our core market and scale in the newer ones. Let's start with automation.
Total automation in Germany reached 77% at the end of June, up from 69% in December, 8 percentage points in six months. In practice, Sky, our proprietary AI platform, handled around 1.3 million interactions on a fully automated basis in the half, 400,000 more than in the second half of the year, and more than 1 million files were closed with no human involvement at all, up 23% from 854,000 a year ago.
The reason we spend time on these numbers is that they translate directly into unit economics. Human-assisted contacts per file were down 24% versus the second half of '25.
The same file now requires materially less human effort, which is what lowers our cost to collect. The automation is moving up the complexity curve, not just handling simple cases.
By June, 62% of Sky-related emails were processed straight-through against 41% in January, and 75% of documents against 49%. This is deployed technology with measurable output in production environment, not a pilot.
Now the second half of the page: scale outside Germany. Revenue in the markets outside our core grew 28% to €50.6 million, and the newest platform are the fastest growing.
In the Nordics, revenue reached €13.6 million, up 83%, with Sweden at €11.6 million. Norway went from €0.1 million to €1.9 million and turned profitable in the second part of the year of operation.
In DACH outside Germany, revenue was €12 million, up 52%, with Austria at €7.6 million and Switzerland at €3 million, delivering its first profitable half year. Finland has launched and is generating its first revenue, and Denmark is next, which will bring the group to 14 countries.
The pattern here is what matters more than any single country. The greenfield playbook is repeatable, it requires very limited capital, and it reaches profitability quickly.
Finally, the box at the bottom of the page, which is the part I would draw your attention to because it's new. Cross-selling between doValue and Coeo has moved from intentions to signed contracts in both directions.
doValue has signed and is already operational on two mandates with German banks, relevant because banks carry around €50 billion of non-performing loans, a stock up 67% since 2020, in a servicing market with no scaled incumbent. In the other direction, Coeo has signed contracts with payment and e-commerce operators in Spain and Italy, where our [varied?]
operation is now active, and Greece follows in September, also with the first deployment of the Sky voice agent in a doValue market. Let's now turn to new business on page 6, where I want to start with the single most important fact on this page.
We have already delivered the new business target of our business plan. Since the start of the plan, we have won €27 billion of new business against the '24-'26 target of €24 billion.
The target is achieved six months before the end of the plan. In the first half alone, we added €3.1 billion of GBV, made up of €1.5 billion of new mandates and €1.6 billion of forward flows.
On top of that, secondary sales amounted to an overall €0.5 billion, of which €0.2 billion being the first ever sale of reperforming loans in Greece, occurring in the first quarter. By region, the picture is uneven.
Spain has a strong half, adding around €450 million of new business from two banking institutions. One a new relationship, the other is the shifted contract perimeter with Santander.
Italy signed around €200 million of new mandates, with forward flows from Banco BPM and BPER growing 46%, mostly driven by the contribution of Banca Popolare di Sondrio within the BPER perimeter. In the Hellenic region, activity was visibly softer in the second quarter as market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach while the Katseli framework evolves.
Now a word on the quality of this new business, because volume alone would be a misleading way to read this page. The market is more complex, particularly in Italy, where collection has been softer and the flow of new business across the market has slowed in 2026.
Looking at the second half, we expect several portfolios to come to market from secondary transactions in the coming months. For doValue, although with a lower collection rate, this is genuine new business: new mandates, new investor relationships, and incremental GBV under management.
Before turning to guidance, let's look at the market backdrop on page 7. The European NPL market has evolved into a new equilibrium underpinning more than €2 billion of addressable servicing revenue across our core footprint over the '26-'29 period.
This is not the same market we had 10 years ago, when banks were dealing with very large legacy stocks at the peak of the NPL cycle. The market is smaller than the peak NPL market of the past, but more disciplined, more recurring, and more sustainable.
This is where the role of the servicer becomes systemic. The second message is equally important: the opportunity is no longer limited to banking and PE.
Technology and AI are making it economically viable to serve adjacent asset classes that were historically less profitable under a traditional, human-heavy servicing market. This is exactly where the combination with Coeo becomes strategically powerful.
doValue brings scale, licenses, institutional relationships, and deep servicing expertise. Coeo brings a highly automated, AI-enabled platform for small-ticket, high-volume receivables.
Together, we can address both sides of the market: the new equilibrium in banking and PE, and the emerging opportunities in the adjacent credit and receivable segments. On the basis of this strategic backdrop, let me turn to what this means for our full-year 2026 outlook.
Across our markets, performance remains differentiated. Italy continues to face low primary NPL volume, as bank default ratios remain near historical lows.
The aging stock of existing portfolio and the slower-than-expected expansion of value-added services are adding to the challenge. Greece is performing well, although regulatory developments may delay some secondary market transactions, while Spain continues to progress, but as yet not on optimal scale.
Most importantly, Coeo continues to deliver double-digit growth, ahead of expectation and structurally less exposed to the NPL cycle. Taking these three elements together, we believe our full-year 2026 pro forma EBITDA guidance of approximately €300 million remains within reach, assuming that Coeo continues to perform broadly in line with the first half and the group is able to adapt its cost base to the new market reality, both areas where management is strongly focused on and has delivered.
On leverage, delivery remains dependent on two key drivers: completion of the Coeo receivable portfolio sale and the expected normalization of NPL working capital, with encouraging trends already visible in the second quarter. At the same time, the strategic direction of the group is clear.
We are building a broader, more diversified, and more technology-enabled platform, with digital receivables providing an additional engine of growth, and the servicing franchise continuing to generate scale and cash flow. This gives us confidence in the group's ability to navigate the current market environment and deliver shareholder value beyond 2026.
You will hear more on this on the next 18th of October in our Capital Markets Day. Now I will hand over to Davide for a detailed financial overview of the quarter.
Davide Soffietti
Thank you, Manuela, and good morning, everyone. Let us start page 9 with the second quarter financial highlights.
The second quarter results provide the first fully quarter view of the enlarged group, including Coeo. Gross revenue increased by 38% year-on-year to €181 million, primarily reflecting the first-time contribution from Coeo.
Net revenue increased by 17% to €148 million. The difference between gross and net revenue growth reflects the different operating model of Coeo, where a large proportion of costs is recorded through outsourcing fees.
Outsourcing fees therefore represented 18 percentage of gross revenue in the quarter. EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, increased by 21% to €58 million, supported by Coeo's contribution and resilient profitability in the Hellenic region.
EBITDA margin remained broadly stable at 32%, compared with 34% in the second quarter of last year. This reflects the contribution from Coeo, resilient profitability, and operating flexibility in the Hellenic region, partially offset by the weaker performance in Italy.
Below EBITDA, net income, excluding non-recurring items, was €3 million, broadly flat year-on-year. Higher EBITDA more than offset the effects from the negative items arising from the consolidation of Coeo, including PPA amortization and the interest expense associated with the bond issued to finance the acquisition.
For completeness, on first half pro forma basis, assuming Coeo had been consolidated from the beginning of the year, EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, would have reached €121 million, while group net income, excluding non-recurring items, would have remained positive at €16 million. Both these figures are relevant because they are coherent with guidance figures.
Finally, Coeo's own portfolio generated €31 million of cash collections in the quarter and €61 million the first six months. These collections relate to principal and are therefore outside EBITDA, while the related collection fees are recognized in gross revenue.
We do not think cash EBITDA is the most appropriate metric to assess doValue's operating performance, as our model remains fundamentally servicing-led. However, while the portfolio is still on balance sheet, if you want to look at EBITDA on a more comparable basis with debt purchasers, the information provided on portfolio cash collection, portfolio investments, and related accounting treatment gives you the lens to do so.
Overall, the second quarter showed the stronger scale, a broader earnings base of the enlarged group. It also shows that this diversification into growing market provides a meaningful buffer, although not yet entirely offsetting the softer dynamics affecting parts of traditional servicing business.
Let us now move to page 10, where we show how significantly the group's revenue mix has evolved over the past 12 months. Digital collection already represented 31% of group revenue, compared with 43% from NPL servicing.
One year ago, NPL servicing accounted for 64 percentage of group revenue, and value-added services was 17%. Today, the enlarged group has significantly more balanced mix: 43% in NPL servicing, 31% digital collection, 12% non-NPL servicing, and 14% value-added services.
This is more than a perimeter effect; it represents a structural change in the composition of the group. Digital collections provide the group with meaningful exposure to structurally growing markets, supported by the continued expansion of consumer credit, digital commerce, and the recurring outsourced receivables management across financial and non-financial clients.
They also significantly expand our presence in Central and Northern Europe. At the same time, specialist servicing remains a sizable and highly relevant franchise.
NPL servicing is still the largest component of group revenue, and it continues to provide scale, long-standing client relationships, specialist claims management capabilities, and cash generation across Southern Europe. The strategic value of the enlarged group comes from combining these two platforms.
We retain our leadership and expertise in complex claims servicing, while adding a digital collection business with a broader exposure across geographies, clients, and sectors. The more balanced revenue mix reduces the group's exposure to individual NPL market dynamics, while retaining a sizable and resilient servicing franchise.
This is particularly important in the current market environment, where traditional servicing trends remain different across countries. Such trends do not remove the near-term impact of the softer dynamics currently affecting Italy.
However, the contribution from digital collection is already mitigating part of that pressure and, over time, should make the group structurally less dependent on any single geography or credit cycle. Overall, the slide shows a group that is materially more diversified than 12 months ago, still anchored in specialist servicing, but now complemented by digital collection platform that already represents almost one-third of revenues and provides an additional engine for future growth and earnings resilience.
Moving to page 11, you can see how the broader revenue base translated into EBITDA. EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, increased by 21% year-on-year from €48 million to €58 million, primarily reflecting the first-time contribution from Coeo and the resilient profitability of the Hellenic region.
EBITDA margin remained broadly stable at 32%, compared with 34% in the second quarter of last year. This demonstrates the resilience of the enlarged group, despite the pressure affecting parts of traditional servicing business.
On a first half pro forma basis, assuming that Coeo had been consolidated from the beginning of the year, EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, reached €121 million, up 27% compared with the first half 2025, with a margin of 33%. The first message is therefore scale.
The enlarged group is now operating from a materially broader earnings base. Q2 EBITDA increased to €58 million, and first half pro forma EBITDA to €120 million.
The second message is margin resilience. EBITDA margin was 32% in Q2 and 33% on first half pro forma basis.
This reflects the contribution from Coeo's growing and increasingly automated platform, together with the operating flexibility of servicing business. At the same time, we are not ignoring the trend impact of the traditional servicing business.
Italy remains affected by softer collections, lower primary NPL volumes, and a lower contribution from value-added services. Proactive cost mitigation measures are already underway to align the cost base with the current volume trends.
Spain and the Hellenic region continue to provide important support to the group profitability. In particular, the Hellenic region remained resilient despite softer market activity, while Spain continued to benefit from cost discipline as the business progresses towards optimal scale.
Moving on page 12, I would like to spend a moment on Coeo's own portfolio, which is an important component of both the cash generation profile of the business and our transition towards an asset-light model. The first point is that this is a fast-turning and cash-generative portfolio.
At the end of June, the portfolio had an estimated market value of approximately €120 million to €140 million, and estimated remaining collections of approximately €170 million over 120 months. These figures refer to expected principal collections, and therefore exclude the collection fees generated by the platform.
The portfolio comprises approximately 8 million files and generated €60 million of principal cash collections in the first half of 2026. These collections were recorded for the benefit of doValue balance sheet and demonstrate the speed at which the portfolio converts into cash.
The rapid conversion is also visible in the most recent investments. Of the €48 million reinvested in portfolio purchases during the second quarter, 20% had already been collected by the end of June.
This is a defining feature of Coeo's portfolio model. Capital is deployed into granular receivables that start converting into cash very quickly.
The second point is strategic. Our objective is not to maintain a permanently capital-intensive portfolio business.
As announced at the time of the acquisition, our strategy is to divest the full investment portfolio and maintain the group as an asset-light, servicing-led platform. We continue to target completion of the disposal within 2026, preserving Coeo servicing and technology capabilities, while removing the balance sheet intensity associated with the portfolio ownership.
Until the disposal is completed, the portfolio remains a temporary but meaningful source of cash generation. The final point is how investors should think about the portfolio while it remains on our balance sheet.
From an operating perspective, this is not a strategic departure from doValue servicing-led model. It is a portfolio that comes with Coeo.
It generates significant cash while we own it, and it is expected to be sold as part of our transition to the full asset-light structure. At the same time, as we discussed earlier, the related cash collection and the reinvestment are important for understanding cash generation and comparability with debt purchasers.
We do not intend to manage the group around debt purchasing metrics, but we are providing the information needed to bridge that view if analysts choose to do so. The key message is therefore straightforward: the portfolio is fast-turning, cash-generative, and on track for disposal, while the strategic destination of the group remains an asset-light servicing and receivable management platform.
Let us now move to page 13, where we take you through the main items between EBITDA and group net income. EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, was €57.6 million in the second quarter, compared to €47.7 million in the prior year.
Non-recurring items within EBITDA amounted to €7.4 million, mainly linked to the acquisition of Coeo. After these items, reported EBITDA was €50 million, up €4.5 million year-on-year.
Below EBITDA, depreciation, amortization, net write-downs, provisions, and adjustments amounted to €32.6 million, an increase of €7.1 million year-on-year. They mainly reflect the consolidation of Coeo and the related preliminary purchase price allocation.
As a result, EBIT was €17.5 million, compared with €20.1 million in Q2 2025. Net financial expenses and net gain and losses on financial assets amounted to €16 million, increasing by €2.6 million year-on-year.
This reflects the cost of the bond and RCF used to finance temporary holding of Coeo receivable portfolio. This results in EBT of €1.5 million.
Income taxes amounted to €9.3 million, slightly higher than the prior period, reflecting the contribution from profitable entities across the group, including Coeo. Minority interest amounted to €3.7 million, increasing by approximately €1.1 million year-on-year, and related to the group's partnership with BPER and Banco BPM and Eurobank.
Group net income, excluding non-recurring items, was positive at €3.3 million, compared with €2.8 million of Q2 2025. On a first half pro forma basis, assuming Coeo had been consolidated from the beginning of the year, EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, would have been €120 million, while ordinary net income would have been €16 million.
The main takeaway: net income, excluding non-recurring, is growing just after the first quarter of full consolidation of Coeo, providing the EPS accretive nature of the transaction. Moving to page 14, the key message is the significant improvement in cash generation during the second quarter and, importantly, the full reversal of the working capital absorption recorded in Q1.
Starting from the reported EBITDA, the quarter also includes a €2.4 million non-cash IFRS 9 item related to the Coeo receivable portfolio and €31.4 million principal cash collection from Coeo's own portfolio, recorded for the benefit of doValue balance sheet. Net working capital contributed €38.9 million in the second quarter, fully recovering the absorption recorded in Q1, in line with our expectations.
This compares with a positive working capital contribution of €3.4 million for the first half, confirming the first quarter absorption was temporary and fully reversed in Q2, and that the Q1 absorption was driven by timing rather than a structural deterioration in the group's cash conversion. Other assets and liabilities absorbed €39.2 million.
This includes recurring cash items such as IFRS 16 payments and redundancy costs, as well as specific temporary and non-recurring effects. In particular, the quarter includes an approximately €8 million delayed cash impact related to the VAT dispute in Greece with the Greek tax authority.
Following the positive ruling, we expect this amount to be fully recovered, making it only a shift in timing. The line also includes a €12 million cash mismatch, the 100% payment of the 2025 management incentive plan versus the six-month accrual of 2026.
After these movements and €7 million of CapEx, cash flow from operations reached €76 million, compared with €33 million in the second quarter of the last year. Adjusting for transaction costs and temporary VAT effects in Greece, recurring operating cash flow was €90 million.
After taxes and financial charge of €20.9 million, recurring free cash flow amounted to €68 million in the quarter. This demonstrates the strong cash generation capacity of the enlarged group once temporary and transaction-related items are separated from the underlying performance.
Reported free cash flow was €54.1 million, compared with €19 million in Q2 2025. Below free cash flow, the reported cash flow before debt repayment was significantly affected by two clearly identifiable items.
The first was the €368.5 million net cash impact from the Coeo acquisition. The second was €48.2 million investment in Coeo's customer receivables, reflecting strong file intake and supporting future collection and revenue.
As discussed in the previous page, this portfolio investment had rapid cash conversion profile: near 20% of the amount invested during the quarter had already been collected by the end of June. The reported cash flow before debt repayment was therefore negative by €370.8 million, but this figure is not representative of the group's underlying cash generation, as it includes the acquisition consideration for Coeo and the portfolio investment.
The key takeaway from this page is that recurring cash generation remains strong, while the working capital concern visible at the end of Q1 was fully reversed during the second quarter. This cash generation capacity, together with the planned portfolio disposal, remains an important support for the group's deleveraging trajectory.
Let us now move to page 15 and look the group financial structure and deleveraging trajectory. The key message on this page is that reported leverage at the end of June reflects the completion of the Coeo acquisition, the related financing, and dividend payment made during the first half.
Reported net debt was €855 million at June 2026, corresponding to reported net leverage of 3.1 times. This includes the acquisition debt, the cash impact of the transaction, and the dividend payment, which were not included in the leverage guidance.
The slide also shows a pro forma view excluding the Coeo receivable back-book. On that basis, net debt would have been approximately €722 million, and leverage approximately 2.6 times, comparable to the 2.2 times guidance pre-dividend, or 2.3 times post-2025 dividend paid in May 2026.
Liquidity remains solid. The group had approximately €168 million of cash on balance sheet at June 2026.
After effects of financing actions completed after quarter end further strengthened the maturity profile and financial flexibility. Our outstanding bonds are currently trading at around 5% yield to maturity, among the lowest levels in the sector, while the average cost of debt is now approximately 5.9% following the recent refinancing.
Importantly, both Fitch and S&P have confirmed the group's BB rating with stable outlook, reflecting the stronger business profile and the expectation that deleveraging remains a clear management priority. The path to deleverage is supported by three elements: recurring cash generation, the planned sale of the Coeo portfolio receivables, and the lower financial cost following the refinancing.
We have also completed important action on the liability side of the balance sheet. As you can see on page 16, in July, we put in place €330 million of new bank facility, comprising of €250 million term loan and €80 million revolving credit facility, replacing the previous facilities.
The refinancing followed a €61 million tap of our 2031 senior secured notes. The proceeds were primarily used to prepay €50 million of existing term loan.
The new financing package delivers three clear benefits. First, it reduces our financing costs.
The new blended cost of debt is approximately 5.9%, broadly in line with the trading level of our 2031 senior secured notes. We expect the refinancing to generate approximately €4 million of annual interest savings, providing direct support to cash generation.
Second, it materially improves our maturity profile. The maturity of the term loan has been extended from October 2029 to July 2031, while the revolving credit facility has been extended from October '27 to July 2031.
The term loan will begin amortizing from the second year, with approximately 40% remaining as a bullet at the final maturity. The group therefore has no material refinancing wall before 2030.
Third, the new facilities provide greater covenant flexibility and additional financial headroom, while maintaining a diversified funding structure across bank financing and capital market instruments. Following this transaction, our funding structure comprises €330 million of bank facilities, €410 million of senior secured notes due in 2031, and €300 million of notes due in 2030.
These actions do not change our focus on deleveraging. They make the path more efficient by reducing interest costs, extending maturities, and strengthening financial flexibility.
The group therefore enters the second half with a broader earning base, a stronger funding structure, and clear financial priorities: deliver recurring cash generation, complete the portfolio disposal, and continue deleveraging. This concludes our presentation.
Thank you for your attention. We will now be happy to take your questions.
Operator
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone.
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Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Tommaso Nieddu at Kepler Cheuvreux.
Tommaso Nieddu
Hello, and thank you a lot for taking my questions. I have two.
The first one is on Italy's region. Can you unpack the drivers behind the Italy EBITDA decline in more detail?
How much is slower collection activity, market conditions versus phasing or one-off items? Also, what gives you confidence this reserves in H2 rather than representing a new run rate?
The second question is on guidance. Given that H1 soft the H1 results were were quite star quite soft on the stand-alone business, can you walk us through the bridge to the €300 million full-year EBITDA guidance, and how much of the required H2 step-up is is Italy normalization versus continued Coeo's outperformance versus Hellenic and Spain region?
Also, on your guidance, now there is a new exclusion, which is the impact of the portfolio sale, can you quantify of what magnitude are we talking about? Thank you.
Manuela Franchi
Thank you, Tommaso. Now, on Italy, the EBITDA of the first half of last year had around €10 million-€11 million of sales disposals, which were related to portfolio of our clients, which were sold, which didn't happen in this part of the year.
Basically, taking out that elements, the remaining difference is mostly driven by the collection trend in this part of the year that will be picking up in the second part, together with the cost action should stabilize the EBITDA to levels which are net of the €10 million-€11 million of extraordinary of the first half of 2025 to the new level for the EBITDA of this year versus last year numbers. A stabilization taking out these effects.
Regarding the other businesses, as you have seen, the Greek business is improving in terms of collection, and this is driving the upward trend on the NPL revenues. On the other side, clearly, in the first half of last year, we had some sales that did not happen in this part.
This is due to, now, the regulatory environment, which has stopped investors from taking decisions before the court came out on the Katseli law and it was clear, now, what they could recover or not, so that they can put a plan in place for the second part, which they did, for the secondary sales. Regarding the other two markets, the dynamic is positive, although they are minor in size.
The restructuring of the Spanish business is bringing now the company, which is growing EBITDA, but also below EBITDA has no losses and will produce cash, will be positive contributor to cash flow of the group. Clearly, on the Coeo side, we are only assuming a trend which is similar to the first half, not additional upsides, although you have seen that the business has been benefiting from not only the underlying market trends, which are positive for e-commerce and buy now, pay later, but also from the higher penetration into new clients, which is driving down the contribution of the main client, Klarna, from 50% to 40% of files intake, which is a very important step taking into account that Klarna itself continues to grow by more than 20% year-on-year.
The other positive aspect that you will see in the dynamic of the EBITDA is the contribution of the other countries, because, obviously, the revenue growth trajectory with a stable cost base because of the dynamic of the automation of the processes there will have a full effect on EBITDA beyond also the diversification that the business is doing to the other doValue countries. The contribution of Coeo to the doValue countries, obviously, is netted off in intercompany, you see it on the doValue side, you will not see it on the Coeo side, but Coeo is contributing to the growth also of the other countries, and this will be evident in the second part of the year.
On the overall guidance, obviously, we are very keen not only on revenue and EBITDA, but also on the leverage. There, I think the two drivers are very clear, no?
It's the disposal of the portfolio, where the timing we are taking is to optimize the price, not because it's a question of selling. The more we hold on into it, the more cash we have from the portfolio.
It's a very profitable one, as you have seen from the statistics that Davide has provided. We are not including cash metrics as, now, that debt purchasers do, because our business will be soon asset-light, but gives you a metric that explains also the high turning of the purchase price of the portfolios into real cash.
Now, on the bridge of guidance, Davide will provide more details.
Davide Soffietti
Also mainly on Coeo. Your question was about Coeo.
We always communicate to the market a clear target of Coeo, as we started with €60 million when we acquired, clarifying that those €60 million would have roughly 45%-50% of cash conversion. This lower cash conversion is mainly because the cash includes the asset side of the portfolio.
What we are saying, that our target is coherent with the target we have given to the market when we acquire the company. We will have EBITDA target, we will continue to have this roughly 45%-50% of cash conversion that will include the effect of the portfolio.
Manuela Franchi
Maybe another data point we should highlight on the guidance of the year-end. Last year, we had €99 million of EBITDA out of a full-year result of €217 million.
Today, we have €121 million of EBITDA pro forma versus a guidance of approximately €300 million, you can do the proportion there. Obviously, we are adding a business which has not a seasonality as the traditional business, and that's why we are assuming a stable contribution, despite the dynamics that we have explained about the new business intake at Coeo.
Tommaso Nieddu
Sorry, just a follow-up. About this secondary sales that didn't materialize in H1, regarding that, should we expect them to materialize in H2 or you don't have any kind of visibility on that?
Manuela Franchi
We have a pipeline of secondary sales for the second Q. In our guidance, we are more conservative on the full year on that.
If all were to materialize, obviously, it would be better. The sales are in the pipeline for the second Q.
Second half, sorry.
Tommaso Nieddu
Yes. Perfect, thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco, Intermonte.
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have two questions.
The first one is on Coeo, because you reported €56 million revenues and €18 million EBITDA in the second quarter, this implying a margin of around 31%. If I look at what you reported in the first quarter, Coeo was indicated at €64 million revenue and €26 million EBITDA, something like 41% EBITDA margin.
Maybe I misunderstood something, but I wanted to better understand why revenues and EBITDA are down quarter-on-quarter, and what you consider the clean underlying margin of the business, which integration, onboarding, or commercial costs we should expect in the second half, and what revenue and EBITDA contribution is now embedded in your full-year guidance for Coeo. The second question is on new business, because the new business intake reached €3.1 billion in the first half, and the GBV remained broadly stable, let's say.
Traditional service revenues continue to decline. I want to understand if the new mandates are entering at comparable fees and margin levels, and let's say how quickly this commercial intake should translate into revenue and EBITDA contribution.
Thank you.
Davide Soffietti
I will take your first question, Coeo. We expect that the average margin is between the two, no?
We expect between 35%-37%. In the first half, it's 37%, and making the average, we expect 35% because, as we have already discussed during the first quarter call, Coeo has seasonality that is stronger in the first quarter and in the last one, or in the second one.
The first quarter is always stronger quarter, we have also the benefit to have higher margin, but on average, if we look full year, we expect a 35% margin. Also, Coeo will have again third quarter a little bit lower, and then the fourth quarter will be a little bit higher.
On average, we expect a 35%.
Manuela Franchi
On the new business intake, as you have seen from Greece last year, the €7 billion are now producing the collection uptick, and we expect a similar lagging period for this business. The positive part of this contribution of the €3.1 billion is that half of it comes from forward flow, from fresh vintages, especially on the Greek and BPER contracts, which are the UTP component embedded.
To this business, we are adding separately other opportunities, which are related to the digital collection business, to the NFI business, which are not valued on a GBV basis only. That's why we added new metrics, which are related to file intake and the likes, which are more similar to the small-ticket business of Coeo, to give you an order of magnitude of how that trajectories is moving up.
Obviously, the last component is on the VAS side. To give you an order of magnitude, on Italy last year, the VAS plus non-NPL revenue were 41%.
In the first half this year, are 51%. More we grow this component, lower will be the contribution of the NPL.
The result of cost initiatives we make will allow to exploit the maximum cash contribution from the traditional NPL, while benefiting from the growth of the second part. This is what our new business plan is primarily about: this shift, organic, into the new revenue dynamic, and extracting as much cash from an EBITDA margin perspective and from a cash flow perspective from the traditional NPL businesses.
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca.
Simonetta Chiriotti
Hello, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
I have a few. The first is on Italy, and specifically on the trend in collections that were down 21% in the second quarter, 16% in the first half.
Could you help us to understand what is happening on that side, and in particular what changed with respect to your originally expectations when you acquired Gardant? Also, actually, VAS revenues declined year-on-year in the first half, if it's possible to explain also this trend.
On the cost side, cost remained flat, how is the cost structure? Is it completely fixed, no correlation with the revenue trend?
On a different issue, could you give us a quick update on the tax receivable project in Italy? Another couple of questions, if possible.
You gave the ERC of Coeo over 12 120 months. It looks a very long period.
Is the collection profile so long for Coeo? Finally, if you could provide the details of the €40 million other asset liability cash absorption in the first half.
Thank you.
Davide Soffietti
On your first question, Simonetta, thanks for the question. On your first question on Italy, yes, the collections were down.
Basically, we experienced a lower new business intake from newer vintages. As the amount of GBV of older vintages was weighing more, the collection rate decreased, and hence the overall collection from the business were down.
Answering to your question of what's changed vis-à-vis the original expectation of Gardant, I would say it all comes to market condition in Italy. We have lower volumes from primary deals, and hence lower collection from freshest vintages.
On the other hand, this trend was partially compensated from higher volumes from forward flow from existing partners of Gardant, but, of course, this wasn't enough to compensate the shortfall on the primary transaction in the market.
Manuela Franchi
On the cost side, we have run the last efficiency measures in the first half, the exits are happening between June and July, and therefore you will see the impact on the costs in the second half. This is recurring projects, it will continue over the next years.
As more as we introduce technology and we make efficient the cost base, higher are the reduction of the costs. To the composition of the cost in Italy, it's quite evident that 70% is personnel, and the remaining is 15% 15%-18% IT cost, and the rest is general cost.
On the tax receivable project, you have seen three days ago there was the final decree which defined the perimeter into which AMCO will play, and also the condition under which AMCO will have to be given by the local authorities the files to manage. They are obliged to move to AMCO if the recoveries are not at a certain level.
It's quite actual effect. There will be a continuous flow to AMCO and the redistribution to the other servicers.
Now AMCO is set to run with public tender in the end of the year. I think they are already set for that, and we will participate to that tender.
Davide Soffietti
On the question about the other assets and liabilities, I will give you the breakdown. Roughly €10 million are IFRS 16, to pay the rent in the office where we operate, including Coeo.
Then we have roughly €8 million of redundancy costs as part of our plan. We have also the MBO impact as described before.
It is roughly €13 million, €12.3 million that is expected to be paid fully the MBO of '25, but with this split, we accrue fully the MBO of '26, this will be absorbed during the year, as happened also last year. Then we have the delay on the recovery on the VAT in Greece, it's approximately €8.5 million.
We have also paid the transaction costs that are not in the working capital, or roughly €7 million. This is how we get to the total change.
About the collection on Coeo, as we said before, this is very fast-turning portfolio. On average, the recovery of the price paid is in 18 months.
Then we show that the recovery goes out to 120 months because most of the collection coming in the first three years, but then we have the tail that we continue to generate cash. On this, we flagged a very important data, which is the 20% that we already recovered as principal on portfolio investment made in the second Q.
You see the very fast turnover nature of this portfolio only looking at this data.
Simonetta Chiriotti
Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Davide Rimini at Intesa Sanpaolo.
Davide Rimini
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have also a few.
The first is on guidance and is on free cash flow guidance, whether you might confirm the €90 million free cash flow before dividend and debt repayment for this year, and whether sort of this include I do notice that in the slide, there is a reference on some one-off, and you put sort of a reference on recurring cash flow. Whether sort of this include or not those items.
Still related to that, I do understand that you signaled how cash flow generative is the Coeo portfolio, and at the same time, you highlight the commitment to exit before the year-end. I just wonder whether sort of within the guidance you might clarify what's the contribution of Coeo portfolio.
Partly related to that, whether sort of initially, what has been sort of the reasoning behind in keeping in a way longer rather than initially signaled to the market? The second question is instead sort of on the outlook.
On slide seven, you provided sort of an outlook, which suggests a challenging NPL market backdrop and link the guidance to an execution in terms of cost efficiency measures. I was just wondering whether out of the outlook that you provided in Italy and Greece, there is anything that we should be aware of in terms of additional cost-cutting measures, because I noticed that you put the reference that this is recurring activity.
I just wonder whether there is anything more out of the synergies out of Gardant in Italy, for example, that you might share today. Thank you.
Davide Soffietti
On the cash generation, we do confirm the guidance for the €90 million free cash flow for the doValue perimeter. Then we have the cash flow coming from Coeo was €30 million minus the financial charges on the bond were roughly €19 million.
We totally confirm the free cash flow generation. The impact of the portfolio sale in terms of the portfolio, we highlighted that the value today is included in the range between €120 million-€140 million.
We are working to try to extrapolate the maximum value of the portfolio sale. This is why we have included now in our simulation on the portfolio sale the value in the middle is €130 million.
The fact that we continue to hold the portfolio itself is only the cash production, obviously. As soon as we continue to hold on the balance sheet, we'll collect cash flow, this helps in some way the leverage and, but not impacting our results in terms of EBITDA because the component of the portfolio is impacting our results are the fees we get from those portfolios.
Manuela Franchi
Maybe to go back to your specific question, the keeping or not, it's a question of maximizing value versus the income we get from holding on it. It's not blurring the free cash flow, recurring free cash flow generation, which remains separate from the portfolio contribution, still the one which we had portrayed before.
Now, in terms of the indication that we gave here, we are obviously weighing in our guidance the weaker points about the market as well as the other initiatives we are doing. There are plus and minuses, but still guiding to our final results.
We wanted to make you aware, obviously, of what is the market backdrop, but it's our job as managers to, obviously, weight these effects to get to the final targets which we have announced. In terms of the cost measures, they are not going to change the free cash flow generation that we have indicated.
It's still consistent with the numbers, any other measure we are planning to execute.
Davide Rimini
Thank you. If I may, just sort of a follow-up, since I noticed the €40 million one-off in the cash flow sort of picture on slide 14, and whether sort of this since you introduced this concept of recurring, I just wonder whether sort of out of the €90 million guidance is included or not this €14 million.
Davide Soffietti
This is it's a one-off, more temporary aspect on the cash flow. We will say that the VAT has been a delay, we would have seemed to collect this VAT now in the first half because of the dispute with the tax authority that went well.
We need to wait a few months more to get this cash, but on ongoing basis, we will become recurring. It's a one-off only for this period, not on a recurring basis, we need to include this cash in roll forward.
The same happened for the MBO, the temporary cash out, that will be completely absorbed by the end of the year. The one-off are mainly related always to our transaction costs that have been paid, and the redundancy costs that we have in the plan, we need to exit, but the following year will be lower than the one we have this year, the previous years.
Davide Rimini
At least on the VAT, should I expect sort of to be reversed in the second half?
Davide Soffietti
We will collect during the year, we'll help us to respect our guidance. This has been only a timing effect and not a structural change.
Davide Rimini
Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Davide Giuliano, Equita.
Davide Giuliano
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have three.
The first one is on revenue evolution. What dynamics do you expect in second half on the ex-Coeo perimeter, and so doValue stand-alone?
Is there anything impacting the comparison base which we should take into account, for instance in terms of secondary sales fee last year? The second one, on Coeo, we saw gross revenues growth of plus 26% year-on-year in Q1 and plus 25% year-on-year in first half 2026.
The growth rate was essentially confirmed in Q2 as well. Just one clarification: does the growth rate refer only to the servicing business and exclude the, let's say, NPL investing business also in Q2?
You previously said Klarna is down from 50% to around 40% of processed files, if I'm not mistaken. Can you also provide an indication of Klarna's contribution to revenues in first half?
The very last one, on Coeo back-book, can you give us an indication of how discussions are progressing regarding the structuring of the disposal of the back-book and the related forward flow agreement? Looking at Q2, it seems to me that keeping the back-book generates a cash absorption on a run rate basis, given that you invest €48 million and collected €31 million.
Am I missing something, or this is something we should also expect in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Davide Soffietti
On the growth, I confirm that the growth is only considering the servicing revenues and not the portfolio. On the transaction, we have structured the transaction.
We have three investors that give us a binding offer. We are negotiating to improve the price.
We are structuring also the vehicle that will securitize the portfolio and the fund, Luxembourg fund, that will buy the notes, then we will send those notes to the investor we have identified. In terms of cash absorption, you are right.
The Coeo is growing, the volumes are growing, the clients are transfer to Coeo more receivables. This means that, after four months, Coeo has the option to buy higher volume.
As you've seen in this quarter, we bought €48 million, we collected €31 million. This is why also with the selling of the portfolio, we will transfer the funding of those growth to the third-party investors, and we will benefit from the servicing fees.
If the portfolio remained on our balance sheet, this will be a structural feature, but in the same way, we are growing the company, we are getting more cash.
Manuela Franchi
One other point you raised was on the growth of Coeo. We confirmed that is without the portfolio, it's coherent only on the servicing side.
Around the Klarna contribution in terms of revenue of Coeo was around 60%, now moving down around 50%, and in terms of group contribution, was around 10%, moving down to around 9%. I think we have addressed the other question, Davide.
Davide Giuliano
Yes, maybe I missed the one on the comparison base on second half 2025, if we should take into account some secondary sales fee when making our estimates for second half 2026. I don't know, probably I missed it before.
No, no,
Davide Soffietti
as we confirm that what we have experienced last year in the first quarter, most of the higher volumes will come in the last part of the year. This means in Greece, we expect the secondary sales that will grow mostly in the last part of the year, also because of the Katseli law.
In Italy, we also expect a few transactions that help to grow the secondary sale of in Italy, but we are not expecting to recover fully that in Italy. This is why we have said that the overperformance of Coeo will offset this lower performance in Italy.
Manuela Franchi
We said that in the first half of last year, Italy had around €10 million, €11 million of secondary sales. This is because the banks had some back-book that wanted to dismiss.
Now, this amount has reduced, we still do in the second part, but less, no, than half of this amount.
Davide Giuliano
Thank you.
Operator
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone.
Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.
Davide Soffietti
That would be all for today. Thank you all for joining.
Thank you.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.
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