Moderator
Welcome to today's event where we have the pleasure to present GomSpace. To help us through today's presentation and answer questions in the end, we are joined by CEO Carsten Drachmann.
Today's presentation, of course, covering your full year '25 results fresh from press this morning, but also I think through the questions we will get through a lot of the news flow you have during the year. As always, there's a box down below.
You can ask questions both in Danish and English. I'll try and translate the Danish one the best of my ability.
There's already a lot of questions in. See if it's asked in some kind of way, but do feel free to ask questions.
It's my job [laughter] to make sure I get them then collected. For now, I will hand the stage to you, Carsten.
Carsten Drachmann
Thank you very much, and welcome to our Q4 and full year announcement here and presentation. I will talk about, of course, the Q4 and a full year result.
We'll talk a bit about the outlook 2026 that we have shared with you earlier. A few highlights, maybe a trip down memory lane here.
Something on the outlook, strategic outlook, some of the trends I see in the market, and how we going to run 2026 where there are some changes that you have seen earlier with more business units. Let's dive into it.
Straight into the numbers. Fourth quarter, well, best quarter we've had so far.
145 million SEK in revenue. That's pretty solid.
It's up 75% year-on-year compared to the same period the last year. Looking at EBITDA, also actually at a record high for the quarter.
Very, very happy with that. It's really trending towards where we want to be with the margin levels of this 8, 9, 10% that we're seeing.
Free cash flow quite decent, I would say, despite some delayed payments that we're getting back to. At minus 16.5 million.
All together makes this a pretty good quarter and also helping us to deliver on the guidance that we have given. Let's take a look at the full year 2025.
Top line, again, 441, 442 million SEK for the year. Great.
It's up 72% on 2024. Very happy with that.
If you compare it to the market, just to put it into perspective, the compound average growth for the market is 14% plus/minus for satellites companies delivering satellites less than 500 kilos. That's us in GomSpace.
We are well outperforming the market growth. Very happy with that, and we'll keep our eye on that.
Further to this, what I think is worthwhile noticing, a full year EBITDA around 53 million. That's good.
We have not really delivered apart from where we've delivered a close to zero EBITDA before, but this is the first time we are with this level. It's 9%.
9% EBITDA. If you take the adjusted, it's closer to 12%.
What's remarkable about it is that this is actually pretty well in line with the industry. There are quite many companies, quite many of our peers, they're not making money yet, they don't have a positive EBITDA.
They're still investing a lot, and they're not able to make money. We're in a pretty good level, and if you look out broader in the industry, it is around this 9, 10, 12 to 13, 14%.
It's that range you're in. The ones that have a higher margin have perhaps been around a longer time and have bigger turnovers.
It's very, very decent, and I think it's a good level for us to stay on also with the gross plans that we're having, trying to keep that level and really focusing on growing. Free cash flow, minus 95 million, as you say at home where I live, scheissenhäuser.
That's not, of course, what we have planned for, but there's a very good reason for it that I'd like to take you through. It's a temporary impact.
We have a customer who owes us 145 million SEK, outstanding invoices. Why?
They are in a capital raise situation right now, and this has simply taken longer. We have a very good relationship with this customer.
I am in contact with them every day. They have a strong business case.
I believe firmly in the business case that they're doing. They have a lot of big international customers, including government customers.
That a strong business case, but there is a delay in a capital raise. Then we can say, okay, what do we do about that?
This is purely related to the customer is in a capital raise situation. We have delivered as GomSpace.
There's nothing we haven't delivered. Everything is delivered according to contract and delivered according to milestone.
Through our very good relationship and because we strongly believe that the customer is going to be very successful, we have secured necessary collateral for this. We also have a payment plan that's going to help until they have raised the big money that they're looking for.
Without being able to say too much, this customer, the amount of money they're raising, what they owe us is nothing. Once they get to their fund raise, this is not going to be a problem at all, and we have secured ourselves.
Further to this, if you look at, okay, that aside, how are we then doing as GomSpace? We're doing fine.
We have more than 200 million SEK in a bank account at the end of the year. This enables us to continue to execute into 2026, focused on growth, focused on further investments, focused on expanding in the world.
We'll get back to some of the points. All together, not what we had obviously planned for, but we have mitigated it, and I'm very pleased with the relationship we have with our customer.
If you do the math a little bit, add 145 to the 95, then we actually have plus 50 million free cash flow for the year. It's pretty good.
That means everything else has actually played out the way that we wanted it to. Let's break it out a bit into business.
This is also quite interesting, I think. If you look at our Programs business unit, remember the contract business where we built a contracts.
It's a 12 months, 24 months, 3 years contracts that we're building. The revenue has gone up more than 100% from 147 million SEK to 300 million SEK.
That's very good. We also see Products going up 34%.
Products, a transactional business where it's not on long contracts, but we deliver products immediately after the customer has ordered, has gone up. This is also where we have a very solid margin, we're happy with that.
North America at par. We'll get back to the order intake in a second.
I still firmly believe North America is a right place for us to be. We're not worried about tariffs and all of those kind of things.
We're worried about getting more and more traction, and this is what we're working on. If you see where's the money coming from, where Programs is delivering about 30, 31 million of our EBITDA, Products 26, and then North America still at a negative EBITDA, that's okay.
It will take some time. I'm totally comfortable with that, and this is fine.
Jumping into the order backlog, if you break that down. Order backlog means what is in our order book, and we're comparing to what we had in the order book at the end of 2024, now 12 months later.
If you look at the Programs, our contract business has basically gone up about 11%. We started 2025 coming into that with about 300 million in order backlog.
We've then executed and delivered. We recognized revenue to bring us up to the very good result we have right now.
Through that, we have closed more business also. The net is that at the end of 2025, we have 336.
We have more order backlog going into 2026 than we had for 2025. Good.
Products, this is at par. To note here that, yes, it's gone down a little bit, but it's really we deliver quickly.
We will never have a big order backlog here. Actually, we want to deliver faster and faster.
The market is expecting us to deliver not in 3, 4 months, but preferably within a month, 2 months tops, even down to weeks. That means we'll never have a fast backlog.
We shouldn't have because then we're not fast enough in delivering. The reflection here, it is more or less at par with last year, which is fine.
It will go a little bit over time, but it's more important that we shift it out quickly. Now coming to North America, they had a great deal coming in at the end of last year.
There was announcements on that. As you can see, where North America last year started at around 6, 7 million in order backlog, we are now at more than 22 million in order backlog, obviously implying that, hey, this is a good start for 2026.
Still work to be done, absolutely. No doubt about that, but, of course, it's nice to go into the year with a stronger backlog.
If you look at it overall, our backlog has increased 13%, we do have a stronger starting point going into 2026 overall. Let's talk more about 2026.
What does it look like? This is what we have shared earlier.
There's press releases has been out, you have this information. Let me repeat it.
We believe we'll have a profitable growth. We believe we will increase with midpoint about 30%.
We are giving a guidance of 540 to 640 compared to the 441, 442 that we have right now. About 100 million more is what we are guiding on.
We believe that we will be able to do that with a decent margin from 5% to 12%. On the EBITDA margin, we are now at 9%.
As I explained, this is pretty okay from an industry standard and benchmark perspective. Also, we are quite confident we can deliver that.
If you remember last year, we gave an initial guidance of minus 2 to plus 10. We were not sure if we could deliver positive EBITDA in the beginning of the year.
We are quite sure that we can deliver it this year, hence the guidance here. We will have a negative cash flow.
This is driven though by investments, significant investments that we want to do. We simply have to do this to capture the future, to capture the momentum, to support long-term value creation.
Of course, I can hold on to the money for a long time, but it's not going to benefit us. It's not going to benefit our investors either.
We have to grow and now capture the fantastic momentum that we have in the market. It also gives us the flexibility we need.
We need to have enough working capital to run our projects, but at the same time to do more developments and do more satellites. All together, 2025 highlights.
We have a strengthened balance sheet. Remember, we took capital in the middle of the year from Peter Hargreaves.
We also have a credit facility of about 74 million. We have a commercial momentum right now where we see, for example, we took a large contract for satellites, 18 satellites earlier in the year.
We have good traction on the product sales. This is helping us generating the numbers, the revenue, the EBITDA.
It's all helping us. We are now in a much more stable situation than we've been before.
It never ends in terms of developing the business. There will always be things that needs to be managed.
We always have to look forward and do more, more, more. That's clear.
Compared to where we came from, we are in a much more solid position. We have the strong backlog.
We have cash in bank, and we have a market that's growing, so that's quite okay. At the end of the year, as you probably noticed, we closed a contract with a defense contractor, European defense contractor, one of the bigger ones.
We can't disclose the name. We do see a trend towards more defense contracts.
Some of the contracts actually we have in Singapore also defense-related, so that's great. We also signed the first part Mind you, it was just the first part of a contract for lunar exploration with a North American company.
This is about going out to the Moon and mapping it out and looking for minerals and water. There's a lot more of that coming, and this is a great program that we're starting up now.
As you just saw on the 2026 guidance, we have about 30% year-on-year revenue growth is our expectation. Here's credits to all of you out there listening and buying into GomSpace.
Look at this. We are now in First North 25 Index.
That's great. Out of about 450, 500 companies, we are in the guiding index for First North growth market.
That's great. We were top 10 on Nordnet in terms of most traded share.
Great. I've got nothing to do with that.
That's all on you. That's very, very good.
Overall, a good recognition in the market as well for us, and I'm obviously pleased with that. I'm very very happy that you trust us and that you're investing in GomSpace.
Thank you for that. Strategic outlook.
I'll pause a second. I don't know how well you can see the pictures, but this is a fantastic picture that we have from I believe it's over Greenland up here.
This is amazing. Why would you invest in GomSpace?
You're investing in the future of space with GomSpace. We're right in the middle of this.
We build these small satellites that really makes a difference for environment, for security, for all kind of surveillance. Space is here to stay for the future.
I'm going to give you some of my guidance I've given before. There's no doubt that space is frontline in defense.
Absolutely. No questions asked.
It is absolutely there. We see more and more budgets, national budgets going towards defense.
I know there's some questions on what is Denmark doing. We can talk about that later.
Germany is a good example of 35 billion euros over the next 5 years for space. That is a lot.
Governments are shifting from services to sovereign assets. They will still buy these satellites as a service kind of thing, but there is a tendency towards, hey, we want to control it.
Ukraine is a good example of Starlink and Elon Musk. Then they closed down, there was no communication, then they have a problem.
It's clear and we start to understand that when we can no longer completely trust our neighbors across the Atlantic or to the east, we have to have some control ourselves of those space assets, which helps us with security and surveillance and especially the national interest. We'll see a trend towards more control from government on that.
That's good for GomSpace. End-to-end solutions is important.
It's not just here's a satellite, thank you very much, but I don't know what to do with it. There is a trend towards also broader solutions that we're looking at.
We will see more of these multi-year constellations coming up. It's always been the dream in the industry, big constellations.
Everybody want them. It's taken some time.
There are a few, but we see more and more coming, not just for communication purposes, can also be for surveillance and other things. We do see a growth driven by more and more satellites going up.
Deep space lunar missions are there. We closed the first part of the lunar mission.
We still have our Juventas satellite flying out to the asteroid far away. I think it still has another 7, 8 months to go.
That's ongoing. Everything about deep space around the Moon is also growing.
It's not going to be in huge volumes as such, but there's definitely a lot of money going that way. We're very well positioned to be part of that journey.
We would see an increasing product revenue because the market is going up and the products, the bits and pieces of the satellite that we're selling is required. Even if there are contracts that we don't win on our satellite business, others will win them.
We will sell to others, we will also see a revenue growth here. Scalability is important, ability to scale up, ability to deliver faster.
We do see a demand for faster deliveries. We do see a demand for being able to produce in volume.
If you look behind me here, I hope you can see a little bit, it's a bit of a mess. We are building more facilities so we can produce more satellites and also bigger satellites.
It simply requires more equipment, and we have a very huge vibration table, as it's called, that has to go in here. This is what's happening right behind me.
It's not because we didn't clean up, it's because we're in the middle of expanding. Then the roll-up and consolidation, there will be there.
We have seen it already. There are mergers, acquisitions.
There are more joint ventures and partnerships coming in. This is also what will happen in the market and obviously something that we're looking at as well as GomSpace.
Market growth, 4% in our 14% in average on a 9.6 billion US dollars. This is for satellites less than 500 kilos.
You can research a bit yourself. There are a number of different reports out there, but the consensus seems to be in that range here.
How do we make a difference? National and defense solutions, absolutely working there.
Marine domain awareness, this also covers Arctic and Greenland. Governmental, civil agencies, illegal fishing, deep space missions, commercial constellations, management of aircrafts and more security and safety around that, environmental and climate monitoring.
Remember, more than half of the parameters we actually want to measure we can only measure from space, we will see more of that. Wildfires is also a thing that you very, very effectively can, not prevent, but detect and hopefully manage much better than we have been able to in the past.
Forest fires is also very high on the list here. Four key focus areas in the market that we have for GomSpace.
Product business, we'll continue that. It's good business for us.
We do see a growth, and we need to optimize our portfolio, our delivery times, our supply chain, etc. That's important.
We see satellite operators or constellation operators, if you like. We need to prepare more for volume.
We have to get ready for that. We cannot work, work, work and then close a contract and then all of a sudden gear up to deliver 100 to 200 satellites overnight.
It doesn't work like that. We are gradually preparing so that our supply chain and our production facilities can handle this.
National states is definitely growing. Security, unrest, we talked about that before.
It's growing up. It's higher on the agenda everywhere, and this is something that we are tapping into.
Last, all of these national budgets, especially in Europe, but around the world, they're going up. There's a lot more funding going towards how do we make space more secure, what about cybersecurity in space.
We are tapping into that and including also the lunar and deep space missions. The four key market areas that are distinct, they're different, and they have different target segments.
It's system integrators, it's satellite operators, national states, and call it institutions. This is a key.
If we look out into geographically, how do I see the market here? Europe, competition is fierce.
There's a lot of space companies, but that's fine because there's also a lot of budgets. We have a very clear goal to, of course, capture more of those budgets coming out in Europe.
US continues to be the single largest market. We don't see any trends that we should have any issues selling in US.
On the contrary, we will grow with more presence. We are hiring more people over there, and we have Slava now working diligently to bring our business forward.
Asia-Pacific is actually the fastest-growing market on a CAGR level. Different kind of reports are saying that.
Here we clearly have a focus to outperform the market. We have a good footprint both on the contract side in Singapore, but on the product side very much so also in Singapore, but in South Korea as an example.
Japan is a market that is also possible to enter into. Asia-Pacific is very good for us, and we intend to keep focusing there.
We see more evolving markets. Africa is one dimension, Northern Africa and Middle East, certainly something we're focusing on as well.
Qatar as an example is definitely want to be the leaders in the region. There is a lot of activity and investments coming there.
Latin America, also growing, need to look for their own independence and ability to manage what's coming from outside. This is how we see it.
We see lead development in Africa, outperform in Asia, grow with presence in the US, and capture a piece of the pie in Europe. How are we going to do that?
Going into 2026, we're going to add two more business units matching the market. We'll continue with Products aiming at system integrators.
We will have a Satellite Systems, we used to call it Programs, we call it Satellite Systems, they're focused on the system or constellation operators, high-volume production of satellites. We have National and Defense Solutions.
This is where we go out a bit broader and saying, okay, it's not just the satellite, there is more to it than that. We are heavily engaged in discussing with defense and governments around the world on this part.
The last one is the different institution and funds, and these advanced missions, the lunar mission that I mentioned again is a good example, Juventas. That's also focus areas.
These are four business units, and then we have our plus one, which is North America, which is simply because it is the biggest market. We want to have more focus, and we've elevated that.
Five business units for 2026. You will also see that we will report on those, you'll see a change going from the three report business units we've been reporting on to now there will be five.
Looking forward to showing you more on that later. Do we have a team to lead it?
Yes, we do. This is the executive team going into 2026.
You'll probably recognize me there. We have Tor, who's been around for a long time.
We have Thomas Fiska, who is our chief commercial officer. We have Søren, Tychsen, who has been with GomSpace for a long time also, 8, 10 years.
Søren is our chief operating officer going into 2026. We have a lot more organization and operations that we need to run.
Lars Alminde, one of our co-founders, is running the National and Defense Solutions. Oliver, who has been running Programs before, continue, but with Satellite Systems.
Slava started last year, running North America. A very warm welcome to Janne Rugaard.
I hope you're watching, Janne. Starting 1st of April, perhaps before.
Janne is a fellow Nokian. I've been 20 years with Nokia, has Janne.
Janne is a home girl up here from Aalborg. This is absolutely great.
I'm so looking forward to have Janne on board. We have Edgar in Luxembourg, who's our vice president for Advanced Missions.
Edgar is very well funded in European industry and also with institutional organizations that are promoting space. That's the team.
We have a, by the way, new website. If you haven't seen it yet, I recommend you go look at it.
I think it looks great. You'll see it's reflecting a bit our heritage, where we have a really strong heritage as a trusted partner.
National Security and Defense. We have a much better website also for commercial purposes.
How do we sell our products? How does our customers find our products and specifications?
This is really important. We've made that work very well.
Then also more investor transparency, more share information. You can go in and read our equity stories.
We try to get more out for you, also for maybe more investors that you might know. We also have a little nice share price running here.
If you haven't seen it, go take a look. I'm very happy with the team, the way that we've done the website, and we do start to see that it's helping us in the market both towards let's say more international customers, but also system integrators and engineers who says, "Hey, I want to buy something here.
This looks good." With that, let's summarize it.
Like I said in the beginning, a short trip down memory lane here. This is revenue on the bars, EBITDA on the orange line there.
Starting at 2020, you can see we've been around the 200 million mark. 2025 has just reported 441.
That's great. We're forecasting up to 600 at a mid-range for '26.
The EBITDA going now up where it needs to be, nice and positive EBITDA around 9%, 8 to 10%. This is great.
We have delivered a year-on-year growth. We have a strong lead investor in Peter Hargreaves.
Thank you, Peter, for supporting us always. Makes a huge difference for us.
Then thanks to you listening in here also, First North 25 Index, top 10 traded share in Nordnet, and in general we see a more interest from the investors in the market. With that, I think the road ahead is clear.
It's very clear to me what we need to do. Foundation for success I think has been established.
We need to execute with discipline. There's absolutely no doubt about that.
Discipline is required. Grow with ambition.
We have to be ambitious. The market is growing.
There is an opportunity here. We have the heritage.
We have a fairly good financial situation. We have a pipeline.
We have everything. It would be a shame on us if we don't grow with some ambition here also.
We do that. Then, of course, we keep focusing on delivering value for you, for our customers, for our partners, and certainly for our employees, who are the backbone of everything we do and everything that you will benefit from as well.
Thank you very much, and I hope this is a turning a page to a new chapter in the GomSpace storytelling. Thank you for your trust.
Moderator
Shall we jump into some questions, Carsten?
Carsten Drachmann
Bring them on.
Moderator
Yeah. You already touched upon it that there's a little bit questions around how do you handle this expected high growth?
What if customers demand at the same time? Do you have talks with your customers so maybe you can balance that and see if you can balance theirs?
A little bit yeah, if you can give some color on how you're thinking about this one.
Carsten Drachmann
Yeah. We do talk obviously a lot with our customers.
There will also be new customers coming in that's going to drive up the demand. That's why I chose to stand here so you can see we are gradually working on expanding our capacity here at the current address.
Of course, we're looking at opportunities which we know might come that are bigger, and how do we deal with that? It's a competitive factor as well.
We can't just go to our customers and say, "This is great, if you can give us 4 years to deliver, we would be very happy." It doesn't really work like that.
We are all the time looking at diligently and saying, what do we think is going to be in the next quarter, in the next four quarters, in the next eight quarters, and then we are gearing our supply chain and capacity according to that. I think one example that you have seen is that we have outsourced some of our electronic production, the product bits and pieces, to a local manufacturer here.
This is helping us with peaks. If we have a big peak, we now have a partner that can also produce for us.
That's a good example of how we do this.
Moderator
Perfect. Then I think a follow-up question is that there's some questions you talk about investments in '26.
Can you split them between R&D and actually maybe production capacity that you are going to increase? I guess that's the two big parts that you are investing in.
I think that I know the commercial side is probably more hitting your P&L, but here R&D and increasing production capabilities, where are your investments the biggest right now?
Carsten Drachmann
No, I would say the R&D investments usually take up a large piece. It will be distributed evenly, and we also play it by ear in terms of what is now coming in a market.
Do we need to accelerate our capacity, then we'll put more money there. If we say, no, it's a little bit further out, we will continue with our development projects and keep them on plan.
I think we are agnostic to how it's evolving. If you notice, we actually have gone up.
We've almost doubled compared to 2025 of what we intend to spend on improving the company in 2026. It's certainly growing up.
Yes, there is more R&D than what we have had before.
Moderator
Okay. Then regarding that question, and I don't think you have guided on it, I'm pretty sure I won't get an answer, but I will ask you.
Your expected cash flow from operations, kind of so we can split it, how do we expect cash flow from operations and then we can also deduce then probably the investing part? I don't know whether you want to be so specific.
Carsten Drachmann
No, but I can refer actually to our guidance where we said negative free cash flow because free cash flow is everything flowing in and out. You can do the math.
If everybody is paying on time and within plan, a positive EBITDA for the most part also means a positive cash from operation, which is what we have indicated. We should expect that if we have a positive EBITDA, we also have a positive cash flow there.
Moderator
Perfect. Then there's a little bit question, of course, on this customer outstanding.
I think you covered it pretty good. There is maybe a more broad question saying, how do you mitigate this risk?
Are there other customers? Is this a specific customer?
Are you hitched to customers really needing to fund themselves if you understand my question? Maybe, I think you answered very well how you mitigate this customer, but in general, how do you mitigate this risk that maybe someone needs funding out there that you're delivering to?
Carsten Drachmann
We are evaluate. Like I said, this is a great customer.
We have such a good relationship. They have a fantastic business case.
We're quite comfortable with all of that. We are, of course, evaluating who we want to work with.
It is a new space industry. It's a very good question because there is a lot of startups.
There are a lot of people right now who has a business case, they are in the process of raising capital. If you look out in the market, and I know many of you are, you'll see somebody did Series A, somebody did Series B, they took 10 million, took 100 million in.
This is how it's going right now. Of course, there's always an element of risk, but we look at it.
What we do through contracts is that we secure that we always free cash flow positive or cash flow positive on the contracts. We've learned that over the years, we understand how to manage that.
Then, of course, occasionally if a customer runs into trouble, we're looking at how to handle it. In this given case, we found a solution, a good solution with the customer, and we're very happy with that.
Moderator
Perfect. Then turning back to this national defense, NATO, Greenland, you show it up there.
Any more you can elaborate on probably many talks with the Danish government? I guess it's high up on their agenda, and that's a little bit direct question.
How much your sales forces is being directed to kind of doing this? Maybe also a little bit in the NATO part, I guess why Denmark, NATO seems to be more and more involved, and we have big budgets also on the NATO side?
Is it more you're seeing that maybe we're trying to create a big surveillance network over Europe? A little bit about your conversations, your thinking on NATO versus Denmark standing here alone with this Greenland.
I don't know how much you can elaborate on it, Carsten.
Carsten Drachmann
No, but we can talk a bit more in broader terms. If you go back to my statement about defense, space is definitely a frontier of defense.
It's very clear to everybody. Now nations are waking up and learning, including Denmark, realizing, maybe there's something that we should do here.
Of course there's a process which is a mix of a political process, it's a mix of defense strategies towards how do we use space and how do we take it into account, and how can it help us with our national security? That is ongoing.
If you look at the bigger organizations, for example European Space Agency are right now driving a program called IRIS², which is a communication platform, in principle an alternative to Starlink. This is a European-driven initiative that's going on.
There's going to be more on Earth observations, looking at intelligence through imaging. All of that is ongoing.
I think what we'll see, and what I feel we'll see, is there would be some nations are going to buy for themselves and say, "This is what we do." There will be, my guess is for Scandinavia, that Scandinavians are coming together and will agree on something.
We probably say from Denmark we're contributing from that, from Sweden we'll contribute with this, and then we'll have a more muscle to build it. It will be a mix of things.
Take Germany, for example, they definitely decided not to wait for a long discussion with others. They say, "Here's 35 billion dear defense and space industry, let's get going."
It will vary. In terms of NATO, let's see how NATO is evolving.
That's a big,
Moderator
yeah.
Carsten Drachmann
Yes.
Moderator
I think as you also allude to, I guess then there will be other constellations, like you said, here in the Nordics. They have Svalbard and all that issue to be surveilled like we have Greenland.
I guess that's also what you might be seeing moving around now.
Carsten Drachmann
Yes, for sure. I think the questions on what are we doing in Denmark, you can go to Christiansborg and ask questions.
You should ask them the question, not me. I'm all in.
[laughter] I know what we need to do. I think it's more ask your questions for your politicians, and, hey, there's an election coming up soon, maybe you should ask them how they feel about this and then put your vote in that direction.
Moderator
Then there's actually a very good question regarding you being a Danish manufacturer, Germany 35 billion is probably going to be spent more in Germany if it gets more abroad, you might on a bigger scale. How do you actually fit in there as a Danish company?
That's the first part. Then I think it will follow, should you be a constellation of some bigger military companies that are more globally?
Let's start with the first part. Do you fear being a Danish company and being let out?
Carsten Drachmann
No, not really. I think we are an international company because we never really had a home market.
We are actually really good in export and closing business around the world. In some of our competitors also good at that, but we're actually better than the average European supplier of satellites, I would claim, to export.
That's fine. Do you need to have some local presence in Germany or other countries to get national budgets?
Probably some. What's interesting about the German budget is that the current estimate is that the current German industry can really only deliver between 30 and 40% of that budget, which means Germany has to buy outside or they have to buy via German companies who has to buy outside.
Now, of course, we're working, trust me, night and day. I went to the Munich Security Conference, by the way, last week.
I'm sure you're all following that. We are, of course, working on how do we position ourselves here?
This is not just a question of technology. It's also a question of political interest.
It's a question of who do you partner with. There are many things that are coming into play here, and we're working on that, not just in Europe, but globally.
Moderator
Can I also read a little bit in your guidance where you say you want a higher margin, which I think maybe is the Products, that you have good expectations for your product business due to that reason, or am I reading too much into that sentence? They're
Carsten Drachmann
maybe reading a too much into it. What I want to emphasize is if you look at the industry, like I said, many of our competitors are not making money.
Many of our peers are not making money today on EBITDA. Those who are, who has some more control of their business, are in that range from 8 to 12%ish.
We're quite okay there. We do see, of course, a product business is a good business because it's quick turnaround, and, yes, you have a different kind of margin when you get that compared to long, complex contracts.
In average, we want to be around the level that we are now.
Moderator
I'm also more talking about that if it goes that it gets more national, the budgets, that's your way of getting part of that order by delivering products. Is that
Carsten Drachmann
As well, yeah, as well because we think we have an Italian customer who won a large contract with the European Space Agency to launch dozens of satellites and then buy a couple of components for us. Great.
It works.
Moderator
Ending the questions, and I think you get them a lot, do you need to be part of a bigger constellation, with big military Saab and such one, who maybe are looking into these areas to really scale up and so on? Or can you do it on your own?
Which could be interesting. I don't think you want to comment on who could be interesting there, but your thinking, can you stay alone or would it be better maybe to be a part of a large military complex with a lot of knowledge to sell into military in the future?
Carsten Drachmann
I think let's turn the question a bit around. What is happening in the market right now is you do see joint ventures, if you're following it.
There are companies going together. This may be what you're implying with being part of something larger.
We are, of course, looking for which partners can we find. Which partners can we find in Germany, which partners can we find in other parts of the world?
North America, we talked about that before, it's unlikely that we will hold a contract directly with Department of, what do they call it now, instead of Department of Defense. We will hold that via local primes, prime contractors, and then we'll have a piece of the pie there.
That's how it's going to go. I did say grow with ambition, grow with ambition also means I certainly don't have the intention to sit back and just see what's happening and see who comes along.
We will be actively pursuing to be part of the either the right collaborations or making sure that whatever happens we are certainly growing.
Moderator
Perfect. Then there's a little bit more down to that question.
[laughter] And I don't know whether you want to give that specific, but that's how much of the '26 guidance is covered by the backlog, and how much do you need to go out and pick up? I don't know whether you want to give us some indications of that.
Carsten Drachmann
No, but the backlog is there. That's about four 400-odd million, and then we're projecting say up to 600 million.
Obviously we need to close more. I say the product business is transactional, so that will come as we go along.
Then, of course, every year we do need to close some larger contracts as well, which we are working on. I think the math is there.
I think we shared very well the different backlogs, which remember we don't have to do, but we are sharing it so you can follow that.
Moderator
Perfect. Then a little bit about the bottlenecks.
Where are you seeing the biggest bottleneck? Is that in your production capacity?
Is that maybe out by customers [laughter] sending it out into space? Do you see any bottlenecks in the supply chain?
I think everybody's talking that especially in the defense industry that there's a large, large demand, but can it actually be met? More specifically down to you and maybe to the supply chain in general in the business.
Carsten Drachmann
Overall, when an industry like ours is growing, and I talk about the whole space industry, of course people start looking for more and more of the same. It's the whole industry that needs to grow, which means our suppliers are also having success.
We do buy components from suppliers that are also delivering to others. Of course, there's a general pressure in a market.
I don't see any of specific bottlenecks I want to highlight here, but saying as the industry is growing, as we are growing, of course supply chain becomes a more critical part. We do see that we as GomSpace and the industry is moving from let's test this out, let's do a satellite here and there, to an industrialization situation.
We are looking at industrializing what we're doing. We're starting to think differently about that.
It's not just technology and some engineering and somebody can solder it over here. We're really looking at how do we manage our supply chain, how do we put this together in a smart way, how do we scale up quickly?
That's about a lot more than just having technology. This is a trend in industry, and GomSpace is going through that as well.
Moderator
I guess seeing on your guidance you're pretty comfortable that there might be bottlenecks, but you are pretty well sourced or you might say able to deliver on it.
Carsten Drachmann
Michael, it's a difficult world we're living in, I think we have a really good forecast and, hey, who predicted a war in Ukraine, who predicted COVID? I think things can happen.
Listen, I think we have a fairly solid balance sheet. I think we have a good opening backlog.
We have a good name and traction in the market right now. I think we've given you a fair view into what I believe that we can do in 2026.
Moderator
I'm also more maybe talking about you're confident in your supply chain and in your own production capacity to deliver on that. You
Carsten Drachmann
had
Moderator
your first tweet [laughter] the ship can also get across in the Suez Canal. I know everything.
In general, you're confident then that you have secured your supply chain or
Carsten Drachmann
We are constantly working on that and making it better and better, anticipating that we need to grow. That's what we're guiding, therefore our supply chain needs to grow as well.
Yes.
Moderator
Perfect. Then there's some questions about the UA-Sat.
There's been some news. I don't know whether you want to comment on single projects and so on, but maybe a little bit in general.
Maybe a little bit on the security issue here around projects now when you're going into defense.
Carsten Drachmann
In general, I did see it came out last night. We're working all over the world right now, and of course we're working in Ukraine as well.
Happy to see that as such our name is coming out there. I have nothing more specific to comment on that, but it's a good example of we're working in many places, and things are gradually moving forward.
What's interesting here is going back to this government owning assets rather than having a service. It is the interest from different governments, also for the Ukrainian government, to say, "Hey, we need to be able to do some of the stuff ourselves."
In principle, Zelenskyy is telling Europe, "You should probably get more involved." I'm not going to get political on that, but how could Zelenskyy take services from European organization if he can't rely on that we are there all the time?
This is what many countries are asking themselves saying, who do we trust, and how do we make sure that we're not suddenly left out and we have no control? This is what we're working on all the time, and, yeah.
Moderator
Perfect. Then let's go a little bit to Asia.
You mentioned that as a big playing field, and there's actually a question. You attend a lot of fairs, I guess, also in that region.
What are you picking up there in sentiment? Then, of course, let's touch upon Indonesia and Singapore and see if anything has changed in your normal comment.
I don't expect that, Carsten. You've been pretty clear on those countries.
A little bit about what are you meeting out there at fairs in interest in that region.
Carsten Drachmann
Lots of interest everywhere we go. I went to Singapore a couple of weeks ago for a space symposium there, was invited to speak on a panel.
Always great to be with friends in Singapore. Singapore just created a space agency.
What does that mean? It means actually politically and strategically have now an organization who is forming a strategy and actively investing on behalf of the Singaporean government to develop their space strategy.
That would be great if we also move forward in Denmark and other places in Europe for that. We do see that trend.
We see a lot of interest in Asia for our products. Remember I told the story before, we do have a really good brand out in Indonesia.
South Korea is a great example where I think we have 13 or 14 customers. That's a lot.
Why do we have that? It's because our two founders, Lars and Morten, they were teaching the students back in the day, and now these are the decision-makers.
There's a lot of direction there. It's very clear when I go to Singapore, listen to what is being talked about.
Singapore is trying to be the hub for Asia for space. The Asian countries, Southeast Asia in particular, asking themselves, what do we do with space?
Where do we need to be? What do we need to be able to do?
This is a big discussion, and they're looking while we're looking from Europe to US and saying, "Shit, we're behind," excuse my French. They're looking from Asia and saying, "Shit, we're behind.
What do we do?" Excuse my French again.
That is definitely the talk out there, and a lot of focus on which kind of capabilities do we have, who can help us? GomSpace comes up in many conversations, and via GomSpace Academy, we are providing training services as well.
That's what we see there. Indonesia bustling with a lot of discussions on how they do more around space, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand.
Everybody's talking about space right now, and this is what we're hearing. I'm heading to Washington in end of March to one of the biggest satellite shows over there, and that's going to be super interesting as well.
Moderator
Perfect. Indonesia, I guess [laughter] no more comments?
No,
Carsten Drachmann
no. We keep working.
Like I said, there's a lot happening all the time. It's definitely the interest and will to invest in space.
We are right there every week. I'll tell you more when I know.
Moderator
Yeah. I know.
[laughter] You know what, Carsten? I think we got a pretty broad around all the questions.
Carsten Drachmann
Maybe
Moderator
not specific questions, but I think in general we got them covered most of the questions. Thank you for taking us through your results and of course openness to answer a lot of questions.
I think we got a good way around all the different part of your business. Thank you for the audience,
Carsten Drachmann
of course,
Moderator
for listening in.
Carsten Drachmann
My pleasure. Okay.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Moderator
Bye-bye.
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