Victoria PLC

Victoria PLC

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Dec 01Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptDecember 17, 2025

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to the Victoria PLC Interim Results Investor Presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen-only mode.

Questions are encouraged and they can be submitted at any time using the Q&A tab situated on the right-hand corner of your screen. Simply type in your questions and press Send.

The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself, however, the company can review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it is appropriate to do so. Before we begin, I would like to submit the following poll.

I would now like to hand you over to Executive Chairman Geoff Wilding. Good afternoon to you.

Geoff Wilding

Good afternoon. Thank you to everybody for joining the H1 earnings call for Victoria.

The macro environment continues to be challenging for consumer discretionary spending, and so we've continued to focus on internal initiatives to improve margins and lower operating costs, and we'll discuss these later in the call. However, we'll begin with Alec Pratt, the group CFO, taking us through the numbers for H1.

Alec Pratt

All right, thanks, Geoff. Before we start, just come with a few highlights.

Key things have been ongoing pressure on volumes. Revenue for the half was down about 7%.

We'll provide a bit more detail on the breakout of that later in the presentation. We're very pleased to improve the EBITDA by just under £3 million to £53.5 million.

Healthy margin increase there despite that volume reduction. We will provide more detail of that, and actually we believe there's a much stronger performance than that headline number suggests.

On net debt, just over £1 billion of net debt. A lot of work has gone into extending the maturity profile of our debt over the period.

Again, we'll run through that in a bit more detail. If we quickly flick over to the executive summary, I think it's worth reminding ourselves where we are in the cycle.

We're very pleased with the resilient performance in what continues to be a fairly low-volume environment. Demand remains at about 20% to 25% below long-term trends.

However, we are beginning to see an improving top-line trend, which was seen throughout the first half, and we are expecting that to continue into the second half of the year. Management actions this year have been very significant.

We're moving with pace across various divisions of the business, and actually EBITDA margins are improving at divisional level. We have further cost savings to target as we go through the balance of the year, and we will look at that as we go through the budget, which will continue to benefit into FY 2027.

I think the biggest update from this morning is caution in the outlook. We are flagging that there have been some inefficiencies in the Belgium operations as we transition that manufacturing to Turkey, and clearly the macro outlook remains volatile, and we are mindful of that.

In the meantime, our focus remains on driving what is in our control. These are the EBITDA initiatives that we've outlined at full-year results, focusing on cash generation to help with deleveraging the balance sheet and also rebuilding the company's credit rating overall.

Just to summarize key messages from the half: as I mentioned, revenue growth was down about 7% overall. That is primarily volume-driven.

We'll come onto the split with that, but actually ASPs across the group were healthy. At a gross margin level, those were consistent.

As you go down the P&L, actually, improvements in terms of the SG&A, and so you saw that improvement in both the absolute number EBITDA, but also the margin improving to 10.1%. It's important to note there were a few one-off factors which mask a bigger improvement in the operational performance.

We have pulled out the benefit last year of a favorable gas hedging position, which is about £6.7 million, and then also the disruption from the rugs reorganization, which again was a drag on H1 performance. Excluding those two things, margins improved 390 basis points, and we think this demonstrates very clearly how quickly we are moving to improve the underlying performance of the business.

Moving on to the drivers of revenue, this chart breaks out the divisional performance. You can see in every case that actually volume is the main driver of the revenue decline.

Reminder, this chart is in pounds, and so both the Aussie dollar and US dollar were weaker through the period, and so what that masks is that actually pricing in both of those geographies was a lot healthier. You can see in Soft Flooring, healthy ASP increase of about 5%.

Some of that is mix, but within business divisions, that was actually very solid. In Ceramic Tiles, I think we'd bring out that the decline there is predominantly due to mix.

That gas hedge last year rolling off has meant that we've reduced production of some of the lower-margin products that was using that hedge. Those were within the higher price points categories within tiles, and therefore that decline in ASP is just a mix effect of doing more DIY-orientated products.

In terms of EBITDA movements overall, you can see that predominantly that has been driven by the margin improvements that we have pulled out. Biggest move there is within Soft Flooring.

Philippe will come onto it, but that is despite the headwinds we've seen in the rugs reorganization, and we're very pleased with the underlying performance there as a result of a lot of initiatives at the back end of last year and into this year. We'll also come to touch on some of those actions in H1 will flow into 2027 as well.

In ceramics, that reduction in low-margin profitability is what we call bottom slicing. A good degree of that revenue reduction is actually proactively trimming some of those sales, and so the underlying performance and the market we feel is much stronger than that 11% decline in revenue would suggest.

Then moving on to the smaller divisions, a good performance in Australia, very strong market position there for us. It's worth noting that actually the EBITDA improvement in pounds was basically level, which means in local currency that was actually a big improvement for that business.

In the US, big focus on margins there. Philippe will come on to how that has been driven.

Then finally, just on central costs, we are being very disciplined there, just over £1 million of saving. Overall, modest increase in EBITDA, and we'll come onto some of the other drivers of that through the presentation.

The next page here is just to pull out the non-underlying items. These remain elevated as we go through the business transformation.

I think the key point here, as with the full year, is that only a modest amount of those are cash. Those are highlighted in orange.

You can see at the top of the chart there, the actual reorganization cash costs were in the low single digits. We've also highlighted the refinancing costs related to the transaction over the summer, and we'll come back to that in the following pages.

This chart shows the cash generation over the period. First thing to note is that we are free cash flow positive before capex and reorganization, £8 million for the half.

What we pull out there is that the interest cost there of £17 million will be broadly level as we go into the second half, and it's also worth noting that we incurred £7 million of cash tax. The majority of that was related to tax charges in the prior year.

Obviously, as we go through this year and into next, we expect that cash tax charge to be relatively minimal, and so that will decrease going forward. This morning, we announced the capex guidance with a reduction that we'll come onto.

I think what you can see in the first half was about £25 million of capex. We expect that to be broadly level in H2 and will stay at that sort of level going forward.

Then the other big cash cost there was the refinancing costs, a cash cost of £20.5 million. The overall cash movement was -£40.8.

The non-cash items there, which are kind of the majority of that net debt movement, relate to the premium paid to the bond investors to do the exchange over the summer. That was £41.4 million.

Then the balance of that is a £30 million movement in our FX rates, given the bonds are in euros, £100 million £100 point, sorry, £106 million overall in terms of the increase in debt. This page breaks out the different levels of the capital structure.

You can see there the increase to just over £1 billion of true debt. The underlying EBITDA performance broadly flat on the half, leverage overall at 8.6 times.

I think it is important to point out that our capital structure is very diversified. That gives us a lot of flexibility in sourcing new capital, and we'll come onto how that's developed.

Final piece there is just on the Koch preferred equity. It's important to remind everyone that that is legal equity and equity in every sense.

The return that Koch earn on that is a preferred dividend, and that is paid in PIK, no cash cost. There is no maturity on that piece of paper, and so it is not a concern from a going-concern perspective.

The next page summarizes the impact of the refinancing over the summer. Couple of key points to mention there: so having dealt with all of our short-term facilities, our next maturity is in 2028.

That is for €167 million, which is about £143 million. To put that in context, over the last six or seven months, we have refinanced over £700 million of debt.

It's obviously an area of focus, but in the context of the whole capital structure, we do think that is very manageable, and we're very pleased with the runway that we have created through that refinancing process. I think with that, Philippe, I'll hand over to you to run through the operational performance.

Philippe Hamers

Thank you, Alec. First division is UK and Europe Soft Flooring, which consists of four subdivisions, which are Carpets UK, Underlay, Grass, and Rugs.

For the overall division, we've seen a reduction in revenue with about 3.7%, but with an average sales price growth and a margin growth of about 148 basis points. The Rug division, which we are restructuring at this very moment, includes a shift of almost all the production from Balta, Belgium to Balta, Turkey, to the existing plant in Uşak.

This is diluting the margin number. With old Balta, the EBITDA improvement year-over-year would be 4.1% to a profitability of about 15.9%.

In the UK in H1, clearly we've taken market share, grown the revenue, and massively improved the margins, and we continue to progressively do in H2 because there are clear opportunities in the market due to some competitor weakness and our strong service proposition which we have through Alliance. The sales has continued to benefit from the success of the premium residential brands which we have in the division.

We're also expanding our product offering, as we've said in the previous presentation, into hard flooring with offerings in LVT, in laminate, and in engineered wood. Revenue is expanding fast within these propositions through the different brands which we have, which are Abingdon, Victoria, Westex, and Balta.

Alliance, our own developed logistic provider, as you may remember, is a key component to that success, with on average processing about 20,000 order lines per week through the three distribution centers, and we've even seen peaks up to 24,000 order lines per week in November. Alliance now services about 87% of the country next-day, and it is further expanding its service as a third-party logistics provider, and we are trying to build for Alliance itself a solid P&L.

The second leg we have in UK and Europe Soft Flooring is the Underlay business. We are currently processing the integration of our two underlay brands, which is Easyfloor and Interfloor, and the service proposition and product offering is generated through a separate in-house distribution setup, it's not going together with the carpet and the hard flooring setup to service all retailers across the country.

The third leg in that division is the Grass division. This performed flat in revenue and showed some decline in margin because of some challenging residential market, but we've largely made up for that through the selling of the sports surfaces, and as a result, this has been compensated.

Yeah. On the next slide, you will see that we've separated out the Rug division to see what impact it has had.

The Balta restructuring, as you see and as we've said earlier and as Alec has referred to, is weighing on the short-term performance of the division. I will come back or Alec will come back later on that restructuring model because there's a case study a bit further down the pack.

On Balta itself, it is fair to say that reorganization is on track to deliver significant cost savings in the next financial year. In H2, EBITDA is expected to be broadly break-even.

From Q2 2027 onwards, we should see the full impact of the improved manufacturing costs in Turkey. Second division then, which we want to comment on, is UK and Europe Ceramics.

You can see that we've had a volume reduction of about 8.6%, mainly driven by the proactive reduction of volumes in lower-margin sales. The underlying EBITDA was about steady, 12.7% versus 12.9%.

If we eliminate the favorable gas hedging in the same period in the prior year, we've had a margin improvement of 4.2%. In Italy, a new management was installed earlier in the year, and we have split the P&L and brand between the DIY brands, which are Serra, Colli, and Cerdomus, and the medium to high-end brands for independents, which is Ascot, Capri, and Vallelunga.

This allows us for an end-user-specific approach in terms of the product offering, minimum order quantities, and the service proposition. In Spain, there is a specific investment we've done in large-tile manufacturing.

It is the famous V4 Project. There is a separate sheet further in the project to run through that project and the upside of that project.

It is a €31 million investment which we've done in the last half year and which was successfully commissioned in November. This has had no impact in H1, but should start to deliver from Q4 in H2 onwards.

At full capacity, we should be in a position to do 5 million square meters extra output in high-volume formats. From a strategical point of view, the Ceramics division continues to execute on four main drivers.

That's the intensifying of the approach of the integration of the Ceramics Group between Spain and Italy. Secondly, we're also starting to focus to expand on small sizes and the DIY approach.

Then, as said, the most important project of investment which we have been running is the V4 Project in Spain for large-tile manufacturing. Then the fourth driver is the product portfolio rationalization and the COGS reduction which we have been performing throughout the division.

Third division then is Australia. We've seen a slight drop in revenue, 3.4%, but a growth in profitability of 126 basis points, which confirms the strength of our market position and the resilient performance of the team.

At Dunlop, we are focusing on expanding the market share further in underlay. Further merchandising efforts has also contributed to substantial growth in the hard flooring sales, which is mainly LVT and laminate.

Our underlay factory now which we have in Sydney is currently at full capacity, and we are commissioning extra volumes outside of Australia to cope with the increased demand which we're seeing in the market. The carpet business, which we have through our two brands, Quest and Victoria, is solid, and we see more growth in man-made fibers rather than in wool currently.

We expect the volumes in Australia to remain broadly flat in H2, with revenue expected to grow slightly from a positive pricing momentum. Unfortunately, within that division, there's still some persistent currency weakness, as you can see, which impacts the pound-denominated reported numbers.

Last but not least in the divisions is North America, where the performance is constrained by US market volatility and FX weakness, but this has been navigated successfully by the management. The current strategy of being only a distributor in the US—so as we're not a manufacturing in the US—it is still the best one.

We have revenues of about $300 million in the US between Cali, IWT, and Balta Home, and exports to the US from our European businesses. The North American trading conditions, as we all know, remain challenging in terms of the macro.

There's high-end mortgages which we continue to see and which have driven US existing housing transactions to the lowest level in the last 30 years. IWT, which is our East Coast distribution of ceramics, is been very strong in the Northeast and is progressing the sales attempts to go into the Texas market.

Cali continues to further focus on builder and the business-to-business segment. Cali in the first half has also taken more initiatives to deliver cost savings in terms of the sourcing model, the marketing spend, the merchandising, and the minimum order quantities.

More initiatives have been planned to reduce the inland transportation and reduction of the number of warehouses, mainly third-party logistic warehouses which we have. Then last but not least on Balta Home, this was a setup which we've done in the past to better serve the distributors and the big box retailers and to split the volumes over the two channels.

There's a cost-saving initiative there as well, where we will be cutting out one distribution facility, and the distribution in the future will only be done through the Savannah warehouse. Alec, I think I'll hand back over to you.

This is the overview of the divisions.

Alec Pratt

Great. Thanks, Philippe.

Next section is on our EBITDA improvement initiatives. As we laid out at the full-year results, we are moving very quickly to drive changes that are within our control.

Clearly, we don't have control of the macro environment. What we can do is drive big improvements of the business across our divisions.

The charts on the left-hand side are just a restatement of what we showed at full year. I think the key messages to take away is that we have now completed all of the actions that we were targeting in FY 2026, which is that kind of £20 million of improvement this year, and that we are on track for all the improvements that we are driving through for FY 2027.

The two large projects there are the V4 plants in Spain, and then the Belgian reorganization of rugs to move that manufacturing to Turkey, which we'll come onto in a bit more detail. Obviously, those two projects are within that manufacturing efficiencies buckets.

Those two projects are the vast majority of that £30 million, and so we are now confident that those savings will come through. It's worth noting that as we go through the budget process in calendar Q1 next year, we will be pushing the teams to see what else we can deliver in the coming years.

I think we are confident that there are further savings to go for, particularly in that procurement and integration categories, as well as a little bit more to go for in the manufacturing side as well, with the intent to update the market at the next set of results on those initiatives. This slide just gives a bit more context around what has been delivered this year.

Really, a lot of this work has been offset by weaker volumes. As a reminder, general guidance here is 5% change in revenue drops through to kind of a 20% to 25%, sorry, £20 to £25 million change in EBITDA.

Obviously, with revenues declining slightly through the course of the year, that has largely offset some of these actions. What you can see from the page is that these are very broad-based, right?

That has been across every one of our divisions and across every one of our geographies. I think we do operate in a federated structure, we have the ability to manage a lot of these projects at the same time.

The other key points to take away from this slide is that whilst a lot of this work has been going on within FY 2026, there is obviously an incremental benefit as we go into FY 2027, we know that those EBITDA improvements will come through as we go through into next year. Just to provide a bit more detail on the larger projects, the picture on the right is part of a kiln for the V4 line.

As you can see, it is a very large construction. It has been under construction for about two years.

As Philippe touched on, that has been a €31 million investment for the group. I think that's indicative of the fact that we have continued to invest in the asset base through the cycle, and that is what is going to allow us to be a bit more disciplined around capex over the coming years.

Now, we have uploaded a video onto our website giving a bit more color around that site. I think what you'll notice from that is, number one, the scale of the project itself; number two, the lack of physical labor involved in the new setup, so that is a very efficient line.

As Philippe alluded to, that will deliver about €15 million of additional EBITDA at full capacity. I think the key question for the team as we go through the start of next year is whether we purely use that for replacement capacity at better margins or whether that becomes incremental capacity being able to target lower price points.

That balance between speed of filling the line and unit profit is something that we are working through, but it gives a lot of flexibility in terms of how we attack the market there. On the rugs reorganization, just a reminder, that is moving manufacturing from our Belgium plants into an existing facility that we operate in Turkey.

We have gone through a number of these processes before, it is pretty well tried and tested. I think what is different around this transition is, frankly, the scale of the operation.

We completed the social plan negotiations with the labor unions around the time of the end of the period. That was kind of executed in line with our expectations in terms of cost and the scale of that.

What that will do is reduce our head count in Belgium by about 500 people. That process is now well underway.

170 colleagues have exited the business already. There will be a further round in the next kind of month or so.

We are targeting being fully operational at the end of financial quarter one next year, and so we'll have the majority of the benefits as we go through FY 2027. The new piece of disclosure today is around the size of that move.

The total cost will be about €50 million. The majority of that, so that 80%, is related to severance costs, which is part of that negotiation I just referenced.

The cash costs will be split about €10 million in FY 2026, €30 million next year, and then €10 million in FY 2028. The provision for that move was taken at the half-year of just over €40 million, and we are moving at pace to ensure that that is funded.

As we touched on previously, the program will be financed by sales of the Belgium properties. Provide a bit more color around this on this slide.

You can see in the picture on the right-hand side of the page just the scale of some of those facilities. Effectively that gray building taking up the majority of the page is all of ours.

You then see a road at the top of the page and another gray building extending out into the distance; that is also one of our sites. The team have begun the sale processes for those facilities.

That was a mix of manufacturing and distribution. We will be looking to exit those buildings via a combination of straight sales and sale and leasebacks, and we're expecting the first completions there in calendar H1 2026.

We are obviously able to retain those proceeds within the bond documentation up to a maximum of £45 million. Continuing the theme of controlling the things that we can control, big focus the last kind of month or so has been around our cash flow targets.

This is new disclosure for today. In terms of capex, we are reducing our guidance going forward to about £50 to £55 million per annum.

That's a reduction from previous guidance of about £65 million, at least a £10 million improvement going forwards. That is broadly split between £40 million of maintenance capex and 10 to 15 of expansion capex.

Whilst we are very cash flow-focused currently, we will continue to selectively invest in the business to drive efficiency going forward. In terms of working capital improvements, we are targeting £40 million of savings.

That is split between reduction in receivables overdues—that is going to be one of the quicker initiatives pushed through, so that will kind of be going full pace in Q1 calendar 2026. We then have a segment of inventory reductions.

This will be done through SKU optimization, effectively reducing the number of products that we're selling and therefore reducing the amount of inventory that has to be held. That is pretty broad-based across the divisions.

Then finally, an improvement in payables days. Now, this will be longer lead time, so that is to do with negotiation with our suppliers.

As we previously touched on, as we've gone through the refinancing process, we have seen a tightening of payables days. We are beginning to see incremental improvements in that environment, and the teams are very focused in negotiating with their suppliers to make sure that we are getting the benefits of being a large, well-diversified player in the markets.

We do think there is probably upside to that £40 million number as we demonstrate progress on both the operation improvements and cash flow generation. Now, the final point is additional property sales.

We are targeting £20 million plus over the next 18 months. Those are very much smaller assets, diversified across, effectively, spare manufacturing assets, some showrooms, some spare land assets beside manufacturing facilities.

None of them are significant in their own right, but across the different divisions, people are being asked to focus on that. Those proceeds will be retained for driving liquidity across the business.

Next page on governance controls. As we touched on the half-year, also full year, this has been a focus of the board.

This is about doing simple things well. The aim here is to give us more visibility, more control, and actually making sure that we are making the right decisions.

Pretty broad-based. Some of that has been around people, we have strengthened management teams.

Philippe talked about in Italy. Obviously, the rugs business as well, that has been strengthened very significantly, and we will continue to upgrade teams as and where required.

That is not just purely around cost saving; that is also adding skills as well. On the kind of probably less exciting stuff, we've been refreshing policies, also rolling out internal audit program.

Again, that is an element of control, but also identifying where we can be more efficient. Very fortunate having a very diverse base of businesses.

What that means is hopefully we'll be taking the learnings from some of the more efficient businesses and applying those elsewhere across the group. We've also rolled out improved reporting, both for group and divisional level, and, yeah, applying a bit more rigor both around capex and approvals to make sure we're delivering returns with our incremental capital, but also rolling out a new delegation of authority framework so that we are being joined up in how we're making decisions.

Finally, just in terms of where we are in the cycle, clearly working very hard to drive efficiency of the business. It's worth remembering that we are 10, sorry, 20% to 25% below long-term trends, and so whilst we can't sit here and promise the timing of that recovery, we are very confident that it will come.

In the meantime, we are doing whatever we can in our control to make sure that we are the strongest positions, both for where we are in the cycle, but also versus our competitors. We've removed a lot of cost from the business already this year and last year.

We have a further £50 million of savings to target in FY 2027 and '28. Actually, all the core drivers of the flooring industry remain intact.

That is obviously housing-linked and economic activity-linked. We don't fundamentally believe that anything has changed over the last couple of years to mean that we won't recover to those levels.

Just to summarize, hopefully it's very clear that we have made a lot of progress in the last six months. I've been pleased with where we've got to in a difficult environment.

There is no benefit of complaining about that. It's incumbent on us and the divisional management team to keep on driving performance.

I think we're excited to do that, and actually, we do feel that in a number of markets we are outperforming the competition. Maybe with that, over to Geoff.

Geoff Wilding

Right. There's been quite a number of questions arrive during the presentation and I'll paraphrase some of them because quite a few of them are on similar topics.

The first question, which I'll have Philippe answer, is can you talk us through the competitive landscape in the main divisions?

Philippe Hamers

Okay. If we talk about carpets, we have to broadly make a difference between local competitors in the UK and overseas competitors.

I think life has become a bit more complicated from overseas competitors because of the FX and also because of the lack of distribution in the UK. As with Alliance, as I have alluded to, Alliance is there in the market with a next-day delivery performance, which is attracting a lot of business.

Of course, there locally we are as strong as our local competitors, but we have recently spurred some competitor weakness where we can build upon the business. We've seen that—okay, I know we're reporting here H1, but we've seen, and there was another question, and I'll jump on that one in a minute to know what the current demand was.

I can say that normally in the second half is the better season, and we've seen some good sales started from the end of October through to the first week of December as well, which is a positive. Geoff has asked me to speak about competitors, so that was UK-based.

If we look at ceramics, there with the situation and it's associated with another question that I can see coming up here in terms of Indian imports, we are facing some of these Indian imports, not so much in Europe, but we see that in our export markets, which is mainly the US and into the Middle East, we suffer a bit more competitor there. In Europe, we don't see that.

Also the competitive landscape in ceramics is very scattered, there's not one extremely dominant player, and we are pretty focused on the medium to high end in Spain and in some of the brands in Italy. I've also mentioned that we are very keen in trying to have separated out the approach towards product towards end consumer end use, in that DIY market.

We don't see any extra competitors there than the ones we've been facing. We have not seen a lot of change there.

There's another question, if I may, Geoff. Another question here which has been a question if there's a structural change that means that the volumes will not recover in the UK.

I would say absolutely absolutely not. The UK market is still the largest flooring market in Europe, with about we've estimated 115 million square meters.

This market has not declined in the course of this year, but what has happened is that we have taken a stronger position due to our service proposition which we have as with our logistics provider Alliance. Then another, okay, the question on imports we've seen the upswing demand, okay, I've talked about that in H2.

The season, it was a normal season, and if looking into H2 and looking into the next financial year, I can see lots of potential for the Soft Flooring division, not only for the soft flooring products or for carpet, but for all the other products we've added as well in the product portfolio, being LVT and engineered wood.

Geoff Wilding

There's a question, in fact, there's been a number of questions about the relationship with Koch Industries or Koch Equity Development, who are the holders of the preferred shares. They have 12.5 million ordinary shares in Victoria.

I'll give some initial comments, which are that Koch remains very supportive of the business. We've got a very good relationship with them.

I could not ask for a better partner, particularly going through the difficult environment of the last two or three years. The state of the relationship is very, very solid, and they're very supportive of the business.

That's probably as much as I can comment about the actual relationship. Alec, you've got any comments you want to add about the conversion or did?

Alec Pratt

No, look, I think I'd echo that in terms of the relationship. We also have access to a lot of the capabilities they can bring, right?

They have been helping us with all the working capital exercise. I think that has been hugely hugely helpful to the business.

I think that demonstrates their desire to get Victoria share price up. As a reminder, they do have that conversion right kind of at this time next year.

It is important to remember that yes, whilst that would be effectively switching that preferred return into an ordinary equity return, it would also reduce the liability on the balance sheet, right? Whilst it would change the percentage holding on the equity, actually it would reduce the liability by a very similar amount, and arguably would strengthen the balance sheet and the flexibility of the business going forward.

Look, I think it's probably not appropriate to comment on discussions with them, but we'll just echo that, yeah, that is a very positive relationship, and actually we don't necessarily see it as a risk to the business, and it's obviously something we will continue to look at over the coming months.

Geoff Wilding

There's a question about Balta. In fact, there's three of them, which I've amalgamated into one.

Clearly, the move of Balta's manufacturing from Belgium to Turkey will be very material for earnings. Are you satisfied management have this move under control and when will it be completed?

Philippe?

Philippe Hamers

There's a new management on different positions there, all the negotiations have been done with the trade unions. The plan is in place and it's ready for execution.

Part of that has been done already. Alec has alluded to that.

So 170 people have already left. There's more to come.

And 90% of the production facilities will be based in Turkey. I just want to reiterate, this is not new facilities which we have in Turkey; it's existing facilities which we will expand, we don't have to build for the record.

We've just added production there, this will come at a better productivity, at a cheaper cost of goods sold, and as a result, we should be in a better position, in a more competitive position. Is the team up for it?

Yes. There's been quite a bit of restructuring done already on the Balta file in the recent quarters with a good result, and we will continue to do so.

Alec Pratt

Philippe. It's quite a modular move.

Some of the machinery is already there and already operating, in total we're moving about 24 looms over to the Turkish facility. Two of those are up and running.

They've basically gone on a phased basis week by week, right? There isn't kind of specific risk around a single piece of machinery.

Obviously, the total spend excluding the redundancy payments is only about €7 million, I think that can probably gives you a bit more confidence around that. I think the team feels very confident they are also on track for next year.

Yeah.

Geoff Wilding

The company is saying that capex spend is expected to be £10 to £15 million lower in the future than it has been historically. Are you underinvesting in plant?

Philippe Hamers

No, I think and this is important. With the investment, for example, in the UK, with all the investments we've done in logistics, in the factories and all that, even if the market was to grow 20% to 25%, we don't need to spend more capex.

Yes, we may have to add a few shifts. Yes, we may take an extra lease on a truck.

We have all the capacity, we have all the agreements in place with third-party production providers in case we would be running out of capacity, we can make different decisions in terms of make or buy. I have to say, in today's market, we have a very competitive production base in the UK, and I'm not scared of Turkish imports here because Turkish imports need a leg to go into distribution, and this leg we can provide for ourselves and for third-party providers.

Alec Pratt

I'd say we have invested fairly heavily in capex over the last couple of years. V4 line is a good example of that.

Despite challenges over the last couple of years, we've been spending money to make sure that we are well-positioned for the future. We do have capacity in all our key markets to kind of grow into that demand recovery.

We are still allocating £10 to £15 million of growth capex. We have had a first pass of the budgeting of that for FY 2027.

I think that's choice around where we are getting returns there, but certainly no kind of pressing need for additional incremental spend.

Geoff Wilding

What drives volumes and what needs to change in the macro environment for there to be a recovery in volume? I'll give you some initial high-level thoughts and then maybe Philippe and Alec can comment additionally.

Volumes primarily is the result of consumer spending on redecoration, with a much smaller amount from construction. In terms of consumer spending, housing transactions are a key catalyst to consumer spending because there's a very high proportion of buyers of a home redecorate when they first move in.

Therefore, as interest rate comes down and housing transactions recover, that's a key driver. The other consumer spending on existing homes happens when people have money left over at the end of the week.

Wage growth versus inflation and mortgage interest rates are important, as is consumer confidence, which is clearly strongly correlated with employment prospects. At a macro level, those are the factors that influence volumes.

I don't know if you've got any additional comments, Philippe and Alec, for a little?

Philippe Hamers

Not really. I think I've alluded to that earlier.

We can see, and I'm referring back to the UK now, if we look at how the market is over here, yes, we have seen a bit of a swap from soft into hard flooring, but that doesn't really matter because we have both categories on offer. 80% to 85% of what we are selling is driven by refurbishing, not new homes.

Yes, we are present in the new home market as well, but mainly to the refurbishing market, and we have not seen any declines of volume, and according to us, there's absolutely no reason why there would be a structural change in the demand anytime soon in this country. Is your growth in the UK due to a recovery in demand or are you taking market share?

We are, but we are clearly taking market share. I think the market has been pretty flat this year in terms of demand.

You've seen or I mentioned that in the presentation that we have grown about 3% top line, but much more in profitability in H1. I think we will by far improve on that number in the second half, and this is market share we're clearly taking now, and as said earlier as well, not only in H2, but we can see that in the preparation of the budgets towards next year.

We're looking forward on a good solid market in UK coming up.

Geoff Wilding

Can you comment on the company's liquidity position, Alec?

Alec Pratt

Yes, at the half year, we have certainly that £86 million cash on balance sheet. We have the super senior facility is fully drawn, but we also have the ability to incur about £187 million in local lines.

Broadly similar number as the cash balance was drawn on the local lines, about an incremental £100 million there at the half-year period.

Geoff Wilding

Assuming a recovery does occur, what long-term does management expect the EBITDA margins to be as with a normalization of demand?

Alec Pratt

Look, at the full year, we laid out kind of long-term track records. I don't think we'd see it being hugely different to that.

I think what we are trying to deliver is more integration than were through the last cycle. That should bring further benefits, look, there is no reason we shouldn't be able to get back to those historical levels.

Geoff Wilding

Philippe, is LVT damaging the demand for ceramics or is it more a wider consumer spending issue?

Philippe Hamers

I've seen that question here, there's some people say it does, others say it doesn't. We have an offering in LVT as we have an offering in ceramic and in carpets.

I don't really care where the demand comes from. Has it got an impact?

I think the sale of LVT has definitely some impact because in terms of decors, you can buy a wood decoration in LVT as you can buy it in ceramics. There's probably a bit of back and forth between the two product groups, but I think at the level where we are in ceramics in terms of market share and LVT, it has no impact or influence on the numbers we're reporting.

Yeah.

Geoff Wilding

I think it's worth mentioning that the size of the ceramics market is absolutely enormous. There is about 1.5 billion square meters of ceramic tiles sold in Europe each year, and the amount of LVT sold at the present time, albeit it's growing, is a rounding error given the overall size of the ceramic tile market.

I don't think that any shift of consumer spending from ceramic tiles to LVT is having much of an impact in terms of the size of the overall ceramics market. Actually, I've just noticed the time.

We better stop. There's still questions to go, which we'll try and answer otherwise, but online.

I think we better bring the session to a close.

Operator

Perfect. That's great.

Geoff, Philippe, Alec, thank you for addressing those questions from investors today. Of course, the company can review all questions submitted today and will publish those responses on the Investor Meet Company platform.

Geoff, before I redirect investors for their feedback, which is particularly important to the company, could I please just ask you for a few closing comments?

Geoff Wilding

Look, as I said, I appreciate everybody taking the time to join and and continue to take an interest in the business. I appreciate it's not a hasn't been a particularly salubrious last couple of years, but we actually are feeling more confident about the future now than than we have at any time in the last couple of years because of changes that have been made operationally that will ensure earnings grow next year.

With that, we'll we'll wind up today.

Operator

That's great. Thank you once again for updating investors today.

Could I please ask investors not to close the session, as you will now be automatically redirected to provide your feedback in order that the board can better understand your views and expectations. This will only take a few moments to complete, and I'm sure will be greatly valued by the company.

On behalf of the management team of Victoria PLC, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good afternoon to you all.