Operator
Welcome to the Icade first quarter 2026 trading update conference call. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode.
During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key 5 on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to the speakers: Nicolas Joly, CEO, and Bruno Valentin, CFO.
Please go ahead.
Nicolas Joly
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Bruno Valentin and I are very pleased to present Icade's first quarter 2026 trading update.
As usual, the presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. Let's start with slide 5 and the key messages for the quarter.
First quarter was marked by the successful completion of the disposal of Marignan building on the Champs-Élysées for €402 million. This operation is fully aligned with our reshape roadmap as it reflects our disciplined approach to crystallize value while maintaining strong balance sheet.
In particular, this transaction had a positive impact of around 3 percentage points on the LTV ratio and on the group's liquidity position that increased to around €2.8 billion, enabling us to anticipate upcoming maturities with confidence. In property investment, leasing activity was broadly in line with our expectations, with around 25,000 square meters signed or renewed during the quarter.
Rental income was down 2.1% on a like-for-like basis, and the financial occupancy rate stood at 85%, reflecting expected departures at the beginning of the year. In property development, the year started well, but activity slowed in March, especially in the individual segment in a more volatile environment.
Based on the information available today, we confirm our 2026 guidance while remaining attentive to the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the further impact on the group activities. Let's now turn to slide 6.
As I mentioned, we completed the sale of the Marignan building early April for €402 million. This asset was acquired 20 years ago, and we were able to create value through building a project, evicting tenants, and obtaining the permit.
We took advantage of an increased market interest for this type of value-add asset to conduct an highly competitive bidding process, which allowed us to achieve 20% premium above NAV as of December 2024. The disposal of these assets fully illustrates the group's ability to create value through active asset management and strategic portfolio rotation.
Let's now move to slide 8 and review the performance of property investment. In a leasing market that remains softer, with take-up in the Paris region down 15% year-on-year, Icade signed or renewed around 25,000 square meters in the first quarter.
These leases represent €7.3 million of annual headline rental income with a WAULT of 5.9 years. One of the key achievements of the quarter was the renewal of around 13,000 square meters with the French Ministry of the Interior in Le Prairial building in Nanterre.
This major transaction, once again, confirms the attractiveness of La Défense and Peri-Défense area for our large clients. The financial occupancy rate stood at 85% as of March 31st, 2026, compared to 86.8% at the end of 2025.
This trend was expected and mainly reflects departures that materialized at the beginning of the year. The financial occupancy rate remains the top priority for our asset management teams and should gradually improve over the course of 2026.
Let's now move to slide 9 for property development. The first quarter showed mixed performance across the property development business.
At the end of March, total orders stood at 727 units, up 4% year-on-year in volume terms, but decreased by 21% in value terms at €165 million. In the individual segment, orders were down 10% year-on-year in volume terms.
This reflects a marked slowdown in March, as the deterioration in the international environment weighed on market sentiment and led to a more cautious stance from customers. On institutional side, investors remained active.
Indeed, bulk orders were up 27% year-on-year in volume terms, although first quarter order values were weighed down by an unfavorable product mix that is not representative of expected full-year trends. I will now hand over to Bruno for the review of first quarter earnings.
Bruno Valentin
Thank you, Nicolas. Let's move to slide 11.
Total IFRS consolidated revenue came in at €278 million in the first quarter, down 14.7% year-on-year. In property investment, gross rental income decreased by 3.3% year-on-year.
In property development, revenue fell by 19.3%, reflecting lower activity in residential and commercial development, along with a base effect from the disposal of the Tolbiac asset completed in Q1 2025. Let's now turn to slide 12 for a closer look at rental income.
Gross rental income from property investment amounted to €91 million compared to €94 million at March 31, 2025. On a like-for-like basis, it declined by 2.1%, mainly due to expected tenant departure and gradual crystallization of negative reversion on renewals.
This trend was partly offset by positive effects of indexation, accounting for +1.1%. On page 13, economic revenue from property development was 11.4% lower in Q1 2026 versus 2025 data adjusted from the sale of Tolbiac asset accounting for circa €20 million.
Residential revenue was down 9% year-on-year, reflecting a lower backlog from previous years. Revenue for the commercial segment fell by 31% due to the absence of any significantly project secured.
I will now hand back to Nicolas for the outlook and conclusion.
Nicolas Joly
Thank you, Bruno. Let's move to slide 15 for the 2026 outlook.
Since late February, the conflict in the Middle East has contributed to a sharp increase in geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. At this stage, remains difficult to assess the full extent, duration, and actual impact of this new environment on both the global economy and the domestic market.
Subject to this caveat and based on the information currently available, as well as the group earnings as of March 31st, we confirm our 2026 group net current cash flow guidance of between €2.90 and €3.10 per share. As a reminder, this 2026 guidance includes: net current cash flow from strategic operation of €2.25, €2.45 per share that is expected to mark a low point, and net current cash flow from discontinued operation of approximately 65 cents per share.
In conclusion, in a volatile and uncertain context, we remain fully focused on execution and on pursuing our transformation with rigor, discipline, and a clear strategic direction. While 2026 will still bring challenges, we are determined to keep moving forward, to stay close to our markets and clients, and to deliver on our roadmap.
Thank you very much for your attention, and we are now ready to take your questions.
Operator
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6.
The next question comes from Stéphane Afonso from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Stéphane Afonso
Yes, hi, Nicolas. Hi, Bruno.
Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I'll take them one by one.
First on the guidance and the trough, your comments seem to suggest that you could potentially revise your targets, and I just wanted to better understand the operational sensitivity behind that, in particular, how should we think about orders volumes in Icade Promotion for this year? Should we expect a higher level of departures in 2026?
That's my first question.
Nicolas Joly
Okay. Thank you, Stéphane.
If we take a look at the first quarter, you see that on development, we were impacted in March with a slowdown in order volume, clearly. Once said that, however, the Q1 volumes are traditionally low and not really representative of the full-year activity.
On top of that, as I said, it's still too early for us to assess properly the market impact precisely all over the 2026 and 2027 year on development. That's why we remain cautious and we keep have a close eyes on the situation.
As for the investment market, more globally on the market, you saw that Q1 was a quiet quarter both in investment and leasing market. On the one hand, for the leasing market, globally the take-up, well, fell by roughly -15% year-on-year in the Paris region.
However, you saw in the results that we are in line with our expectation on the leasing activity with those roughly 25,000 square meters that were let during the first quarter. As for the departures expected in 2026, we are still in line with what we've shared 2 months ago on the results, i.e., €30 million expected out of the potential €60 million.
We are in line with what we expected for the leasing activity on investment division. That's globally what we see.
On the guidance, clearly, as I said, the conflict in the Middle East clearly weighed on the international environment. This contributed to heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
That's the reason why we are closely monitoring the development. In our view, this could affect, of course, the global economy, credit markets, interest rates, inflation, raw material costs, and supply chain, especially on our domestic market.
It's difficult at this stage to assess the full extent and duration of the impact on both '26 and '27, but as I said, once said that and based on the information we have to date, as well as the group results at the end of March, we reaffirm today the 2026 guidance on the group net current cash flow, between €2.90 and €3.10 per share.
Stéphane Afonso
I understand that the sensitivity of the 2026 guidance is more related to Icade Promotion, what would it take in terms of volumes to make you revise your guidance?
Nicolas Joly
We'll keep on looking closely at the development, but as you said, this could weigh on the demand, clearly, due to the impact on high interest rates. We'll see if what we have looked in March shall last all over the year or shall recover.
Once again, it's too early to tell on this, but clearly, that's on the property development where you could have the largest impact, of course.
Stéphane Afonso
Okay. Post-2026 for departures, where do we stand regarding Veolia, AXA, and also Thales?
Nicolas Joly
If we take them one by one, starting 2027 with AXA, no major news to be shared today on both of them, clearly. Otherwise, we would have shared that with you.
As we've said 2 months ago, there's no emergency on those, but we keep on having discussion with these long-standing clients. We are not so worried about break option of AXA at the end of '27 and the expiry of Veolia in '28, clearly.
What we saw in Nanterre, where the AXA asset is located, is clearly a sustainable positive leasing dynamic this quarter, including for Icade this large renewal with the French Ministry of Interior on Le Prairial. All of that are quite good news.
We keep on discussing with them, and we will, of course, update you in due course on any developments. Not so worried, clearly, about the break option on AXA or Veolia.
Stéphane Afonso
For Thales?
Nicolas Joly
For Thales, we are also having some discussion. I think there are highest probability for them to gather in a much larger headquarters they have in development.
That might be the one that could vacate the building, clearly. That's how we are getting prepared and already are looking for any potential tenants should they vacate the building.
It's much lower rent for Thales than AXA and Veolia.
Stéphane Afonso
What is the timeline if they were to leave? It's 20
Nicolas Joly
end '27, in line with AXA and Veolia.
Stéphane Afonso
Okay. Maybe one last question on healthcare dividends.
I have in mind that usually you receive notification from IHE in April. Therefore, should we expect any dividend from them this year?
If so, roughly how much?
Nicolas Joly
As we've shared 2 months ago, there's no dividend expected from IHE. The main part of the 65 cents per share included in the guidance on discontinued activities comes from the dividend expected from Praemia Healthcare, which is the French part of the business, which is still suspended to the General Assemblies that should take place during this Q2.
Stéphane Afonso
Thank you. Just maybe one last question on interest rate.
I just try to quantify the cash flow sensitivity to rates this year. For instance, what would be the annualized impact of a 10 bps increase in the yield curve?
Bruno Valentin
There are no issue for 2026, and we are hedging for 100%, this nevertheless, the cover of the interest were no impact on the cash flow for 2026.
Stéphane Afonso
Okay. Thank you very much.
That was very clear.
Nicolas Joly
Thank you, Stéphane.
Operator
The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Florent Laroche-Joubert
Hi, Nicolas. Hi, Bruno.
Thank you to take my question. I would have two questions, I can ask one by one.
My first question
Nicolas Joly
would
Florent Laroche-Joubert
be on the property investment activity. We can see that your like-for-like growth is at -2.1%.
You expected notably at the beginning of the year some departure of tenants. Could we expect that the like-for-like growth for the rest of the year could be higher than your like-for-like growth for Q1?
Maybe also on offices, what, yeah, is your sentiment today on your IRRs with discussion of tenants for the rest of the year?
Nicolas Joly
Okay. Thank you, Florent.
On the like-for-like, well, globally, overall, I'd say that performance remains in line with 2025, clearly including the progressive crystallization of the negative reversion, on the one hand. On the other hand, the impact of tenant departures.
Globally that's where we stand. We are not seeing any major reason for improvement over the year, but the performance shall be in line with what we saw in 2025.
More globally about the discussion we are having with the tenants, well, it's in line with what we see on the market, clearly. Discussions take longer and longer.
That's why it's a key advantage to know quite well our long-standing clients. You saw in the Q1 figures on the Paris region that with very low volume of transactions signed or renewed, most of the tenants stay in their existing premises.
Clearly, that's what we see, and we are globally in line with the major trend we saw at the end of '25 and this early Q1. More specifically on our investment division, we are in line with what we were expecting and what we've shared 2 months ago.
That's what we saw in the figures that has been crystallized during the Q1 and that what we expect over the course of 2026. We try to anticipate as much as possible the potential expiries in '27 and '28.
This has to be done in a satisfactory way for both the tenant, but also for Icade. There's no need to anticipate break options we are not so worried about and grant very large incentives if there's no need to.
Okay?
Florent Laroche-Joubert
Yes. Thanks for that.
Maybe so my second question on property development, we have been able to see that the month of March was very difficult on your reservations for individual people. Now we are in April.
Maybe you have been able to discuss with your operational teams, and do you see any improvement or any confirmation of what you have seen in March,
Nicolas Joly
huh? Globally, what we see now is in line with what we saw in March, clearly, because all of that is related to the overall environment.
That's the reason why we remain cautious in our assumption. As I said, really early to draw any conclusion at this stage.
We are also waiting to see what the banks will do regarding the individual investors that also might have an impact on the demand, clearly. We will see what could weigh on the cost of raw material also.
Today, globally, there had been an impact on the March activity. We'll see if it last or recover.
Florent Laroche-Joubert
Thank you.
Nicolas Joly
Hopefully in July we'll get a clearer view. Okay.
I hope.
Florent Laroche-Joubert
Thank you very much.
Nicolas Joly
Do we.
Operator
The next question comes from Véronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.
Véronique Meertens
Hi, team. Thank you for the presentation.
Three questions from my side. I was just wondering if there's been any discussions lately with the credit rating agency and, yeah, how those are going regarding the outlook at the moment?
Bruno Valentin
As the decision regarding action on the rating, was the responsibility of S&P, so as we have an annual meeting with S&P, this is normal. It's a normal wait for discussion with S&P, no special discussion with S&P.
Véronique Meertens
That's clear. Thank you.
My second question is, is there any update or involvement in the discussions around the potential disposal of the remaining healthcare assets?
Nicolas Joly
Veronique, no major news neither to be shared today on this, but we stick to the plan and the strategy we've shared. We have no intention to sell under unfavorable condition with a large discount.
I think we could benefit from the positive vibes, I would say, on the market and this asset class, clearly. We want to keep on doing what we did last year with the Italian portfolio, for example.
This was a major deal managed in satisfying condition. Our objective remains gradual exit from our minority stake over the reshape plan horizon.
More specifically, I'd say the first priority is focused on the most liquid assets that are, in my view, the Portuguese assets. Clearly, we had already some interest on those assets, and then after the residual portfolio in France and Italy.
We will, of course, keep you posted as soon as we'll have something to share, but no major news to be shared today.
Véronique Meertens
Thank you. Then my last question
Nicolas Joly
is,
Véronique Meertens
I was a bit surprised to see the negative like-for-like on the logistics segment despite that occupancy remained pretty stable year-on-year. I appreciate that there's some negative indexation linked to it, but could you give some figures around that to get a bit of a feeling what it exactly consists of?
Nicolas Joly
That's exactly true. Thanks for highlighting that.
There are negative like-for-like on light industrial, while it was positive on the office thanks to the re-letting of the Pulse. On light industrial, there's a double effect: a negative indexation effect due to the fact that most of the leases are linked to ICC on light industrial premises.
This indexation effect was roughly -1%, and on top of that, we had an impact on departures, on a day-to-day business, I would say, that on the Q1 weighed on -3%. You have also to have in mind that we are talking on small figures, every time you have on the daily basis unusual departure, it can weigh on some percentage points, as it did.
This is the double effect coming from negative indexation from the ICC and expected departures.
Véronique Meertens
That's helpful. Thank you.
Nicolas Joly
Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question comes from Jonathan Kownator from GS. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Kownator
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
Two if I may, please. One, you talked about, I think, briefly construction costs.
Can you just help us understand what you've seen in terms of the increase of construction costs over the last sort of month and a half? The second question, I think you were highlighting a renewal with a government agency from a leasing perspective.
Can you help us understand the sort of renewal condition in the sense what was the reversion, and then how much incentives you had to add on top of the reversion? Thank you.
Nicolas Joly
Okay. Hello, Jonathan.
Thanks for your question. The first one, honestly on construction costs, too early today to crystallize anything and see anything in the discussion we had.
The main question mark is what to expect in the months to go, clearly. Today, we haven't seen yet any major impact, clearly too early.
And
Jonathan Kownator
What are you factoring for the next months then in terms of construction costs view?
Nicolas Joly
We are running several scenarios, so many options are on the table, but
Jonathan Kownator
What is the base case?
Nicolas Joly
Pardon?
Jonathan Kownator
What is the base case?
Nicolas Joly
Today what I say is a base case in which we are able to reaffirm the guidance, clearly. There are several scenarios that are plausible depending on the potential evolution on inflation, clearly.
On your second question regarding the renewal on the Le Prairial, it was re-let on the existing condition for a 6-year firm duration with the Ministry of Interior. It's on 13,000 square meters.
This is a 6-year term lease with no break option with usual amount of incentive, no specifically large incentive, crystallizing the same level of rent than the historical existing one. Clearly, in our view, this is a very satisfactory transaction that still highlights the appeal of La Défense area.
Jonathan Kownator
Sorry just to come back on one of your comments. You say usual incentives.
The incentives, depending on the district exactly, and appreciate some buildings are different than others, but some of the incentives can go to up to 40%. Maybe not in Nanterre, but what kind of incentives are we talking about here?
Nicolas Joly
No, no, we're clearly definitely much less than that.
Jonathan Kownator
Okay. All right, thank you.
Nicolas Joly
Thank you, Jonathan.
Operator
There are no more questions at this time, I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Nicolas Joly
Thank you all for attending the call. Looking forward to talking to you for the half-year results soon, and have a good day.
See you soon. Bye-bye.
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