Cementir Holding N.V.

Cementir Holding N.V.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 12, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Cementir Preliminary Results 2025 and 2026-2028 Industrial Plan Update. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode.

After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Marco Maria Bianconi, Chief M&A and IR Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Marco Maria Bianconi

Thank you. Good evening, everybody, and welcome to Cementir Holding 2025 results presentation and the Industrial Plan update.

This is Marco Bianconi speaking. I'm here with our Chairman and Chief Executive, Francesco Caltagirone...

Francesco Caltagirone

Good afternoon.

Marco Maria Bianconi

...who is happy to take your questions at the end of my short presentation. Going to the presentation deck, on page 5, we have highlights of the preliminary results 2025.

Revenue reached €1.639 billion, -2.8% year on year. Non-GAAP revenue was flat at €1.644 billion.

There was a €97 million negative impact from currency depreciation, mainly the Turkish lira versus the euro. Cement volumes were up by 3.1% in Türkiye in particular, but also Egypt, Asia-Pacific, and some volume reductions in Nordic & Baltic and Belgium.

Ready-mix volumes were down by 4.8% due to negative performance in Türkiye, Denmark, and Belgium, whereas aggregate volumes were up 3.4%. EBITDA reached €439.5 million, up almost 8% year on year.

Non-GAAP EBITDA was €460.2 million, up 15.3% year on year. This figure include €52 million of net non-recurring gains, of which the major items are €36 million capital gain from disposals and €19.7 million of insurance proceeds for the fire at Gaurain plant in Belgium.

2024 figures include also €4.4 million charges non-recurring. Non-GAAP EBITDA, excluding both non-recurring items, was €408.2 million, up 1.1%.

Also, on EBITDA, there was almost a €21 million negative FX impact due to translation, mainly from Turkish lira into euro. Profit before tax was €286.3 million, up 0.5%.

Non-GAAP profit before tax €325 million, up 10%. Net cash position at the end of the year was €465.1 million, an improvement of €174.6 million year on year, including €43.5 million of dividends by the parent company, €9 million of dividends to third parties, and €51 million proceeds from the disposals of Kars Çimento.

On page 6, you can find our 2026 guidance. We expect for this year a revenue up around 5% to €1.7 billion on a pro forma basis, excluding the contribution of Kars Çimento, which was sold on December the 1st, 2025.

We also expect an EBITDA progression between 0 and 5% to a range between €400 and €420 million for the year, and a net cash position at year-end up by €125 million to €590 million. This is after capex of around €128 million.

This guidance refers to like-for-like, ongoing operations, non-GAAP, and excluding any extraordinary items. Please bear in mind that the starting figures is pro forma, is restated, excluding the contribution of Kars Çimento, which was sold on December the 1st, 2025.

Now moving to the Industrial Plan update, quickly on page 8, the five strategic pillars are unchanged. Just one highlight about sustainability: we continue to implement our CCS project in Denmark, we are investing in value chain circularity and a number of renewable energy projects.

As far as competitiveness, we are streamlining and standardizing all group processes. In terms of innovation, we are applying artificial intelligence to business processes, and we're working on widening our portfolio by including an increasing number of low-carbon cement and other value-added solutions.

As far as growth and positioning, we want to keep reinforcing our vertical integrated model in the three key countries, regions: Nordics, Belgium, and Türkiye, and we want to keep our global white cement leadership, and we want to be opportunistic on M&A if and when the opportunity arises. We also are investing on our trading business and investing for further development there.

As far as people and safety, we are implementing a zero-accident program, fostering a high-performance culture focused on safety, and we are attracting talent, focusing on sustainability and innovation. Moving to page 9, just a few highlights regarding the key themes and trends in our industry, which we are addressing in our Industrial Plan.

The first being climate change and decarbonization. There is a trend towards more stringent CO2 and new building regulations across Europe for sure, but a number of countries.

There are a number of technological solutions for net zero, like CCS, which we are implementing, and there is increasing demand for low-carbon products, which we are addressing through our FUTURECEM and D-Carb product ranges. As far as urbanization and infrastructure gap, we see this trend of population growth and urban migration, there is an increased public-private infrastructure spending, therefore we believe that is significant pent-up demand for our products.

As far as resource efficiency and circular economy, we are clearly fighting the rising energy and raw material costs, we are increasingly using alternative fuels and recycled materials, and we are embracing circularity in every aspect. The last one being innovation, digitalization, and efficiency.

We believe that there is a trend towards new and more efficient building methods, and that's clearly a trend towards reduced content of clinker into cement and reduced content of cement in concrete. Moving to page 10, these are our Scope 1 emissions 2030 decarbonization targets.

As you can see, we are targeting a 42% reduction in grey cement emissions per ton of cement equivalent versus the 2020 baseline, and this is an objective that is beyond the taxonomy level. As far as white cement, the reduction is 20% versus 2020, and again, you can see the reduction in 2030 to 730 kg per ton of cement equivalent.

Turning page to 11, we have the Accsion project slide, just to provide you some more information regarding this project. As this is a pioneering project, one of the largest onshore systems multistream in Europe, meaning that it's processing emissions for both white and grey cement through a single operating unit.

Thanks to this proprietary and innovative technology, Air Liquide, our technology partner, will capture, purify, liquefy approximately 95% of the CO2 emitted by the cement kilns. This project targets 1.5 million tons of CO2 to be captured annually.

We have been awarded €220 million grant by the European Innovation Fund, and we expect this project to be operational from 2030, according to the timing of the new logistic infrastructure, which depends on third-party responsibility. Moving on to the awards, on page 12, as you can see, we have a continued ESG commitment.

We have been awarded during 2025 with a number of recognitions: CDP included Cementir in the A List for the second time, we have been awarded by Statista and Financial Times, we've been appointed as one of Europe's Climate Leaders, and in June '25, Cementir was also included in the TIME ranking of the World's 500 Most Sustainable Companies. You can see underneath the table where you can see the progression in the rating from main agencies on our company.

On page 13, just a flash regarding innovation. We continue to invest in transition towards lower-carbon products.

We have solutions for low-carbon cement and solutions for low-carbon concrete. In the low-carbon cement, we are adopting the FUTURECEM technology, which saves up to 30% of CO2, and clearly there is a progressive shift to blended cement with lower carbon footprints in all regions, leveraging on additional SCM materials and limestone.

There is a global expansion of the D-Carb white cement family, which is reducing emissions by around 15%, and we're providing transparency and credibility on these products through an EPD declaration showing environmental footprint and life cycle impact. As far as concrete is concerned, we're promoting sustainable ready-mix concrete through circularity and low-carbon cement.

We have a new low-carbon range in Denmark, Norway called Unik; we also launching C-Green range in Belgium and France; and we also are extensively using low-carbon concrete in Türkiye, where we are frontrunners. A few slides regarding the financials on the Industrial Plan, on slide 15, you can see the main highlights.

These figures exclude the intensification of geopolitical tension and any extraordinary event, of course. You can see that the revenue we targeting is €1.95 billion by 2028, which implies a compounded annual growth rate of 6% to 7% from a base pro forma of €1.6 billion.

Again, the pro forma is calculated by excluding contribution of Kars Çimento, which was sold on December the 1st, 2025. As far as EBITDA, we are targeting a 4.7% compounded EBITDA growth in the three years, which will lead us to target €460 million of EBITDA with an EBITDA margin of around 23.6%.

The net cash position is clearly on the same perimeter is going to grow by €330 million from €465 to around €800 million by 2028 year-end. Just the last couple of slides.

On page 16, a few details about the targets. As I mentioned, the revenue compounded growth rate in the period is based on a moderate increase in cement volumes in the main geographies, namely Nordic & Baltic, where we expect a residential construction improvement from 2027, a higher export volume from Egypt, where both operating lines will be running, and an improved trading in Belgium, China, and Malaysia, partly offset by lower volumes in Türkiye in 2026, both because of the disposal of Kars Çimento and also for trading reasons.

Volumes compounded growth of 2% to 3% for cement and 1% for both RMC and aggregates. We expect prices to be generally in line with local inflation, particularly in Türkiye, reflecting higher energy, raw material, CO2 costs.

As far as EBITDA, we've already touched upon the growth which we expect in every region, with the exception of Türkiye. We also note the increase that we expect in raw material costs, electricity, and certain fuels.

There will be some negative impact from currency volatility, namely Turkish lira and Egyptian pound. We are on average short 130,000 tons of CO2, including a step-up in 2027 due to lower free allowances at our European plants.

The margin will be mean-reverting slightly to what we think is a long-term average. The maintenance and expansion capex is within the industry norms, between 5% and 6%, around €129 million per year, with a cumulative capex of €386 million, of which €77 for sustainability initiatives, including €16 million for the Accsion project in 2026.

Please bear in mind that Accsion net capex group share from 2027 will be around €120 million in the following three years. The profile of net cash out will depend on the timing of the logistic infrastructure execution, which is a third-party responsibility.

Please note also, lastly, that cumulative free cash flow generation will be around €330 million, with a progressive dividend payment in the range between 20% and 25%. This leads me to the last slide, which is the capex highlights.

As said, €386 cumulative investment, of which €77 sustainability and €16 for CCS. The main projects are Accsion in Denmark, wind turbines in Belgium, facility upgrade for FUTURECEM, natural gas transition in Aalborg and Gaurain.

This ends my presentation, and I leave the floor to Mr. Caltagirone, who is happy to take your questions.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions.

Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time. The first question is from Wim Hoste of KBC Securities.

Wim Hoste

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions.

I would have three questions, please. The first one is on the CBAM regulation.

Is that having any impact on your businesses and markets? Can you maybe comment on that?

The second question would be on Egypt. You opened a second line last year.

Can you explain us how that is driving growth in that market and also what the profitability impact of that growth? I think you mentioned in the industrial plan that you see a pickup in volumes in Egypt, a bit of more clarity or granularity on that would also be helpful.

Then a third question from my side would be on M&A. In the Industrial Plan slide or earlier also, there is also mentioning that M&A is still a possibility.

I think in the past you were a bit cautious to do M&A, looking at all the regulatory changes on the environment, etc. Is that attitude now changing or are you still maintaining an organic growth focus for the short term?

Those are the questions. Thank you.

Francesco Caltagirone

Thank you for your question. The first one about CBAM, so far, frankly speaking, we haven't seen a lot, especially because in the northern country and Northern Europe, the weather has been so bad that especially, as you can imagine, during the last part of the year and in the first part, you use the inventory that have been built in the previous quarter.

Now I think from the moment that the bad weather hit the business between 10% and 20%, it is difficult to evaluate if CBAM in place have, let me say, helped or not the business. We need a few weeks or a couple of months, probably the first half of the year to understand better how it is working.

In Egypt, we expect that this year the problem that we suffered the last year for qualities has already been resolved and we expect that we increase our sales, especially to the United States. The El-Arish port is already working.

For the first time, we sent a vessel of 35,000 tons directly to the States. We expect to increase the profitability of the Egypt that nearly 50%, 60% this year should be around €18 million of EBITDA.

Regarding M&A, we have the same, let me say, attitude. We would like to expand our business and perimeter.

I know that, especially in the latest weeks, there has been rumors about, let me say, possible change and to enhancement of the CO2 framework. This framework has been built in the last 20 years.

I don't think that in few months or weeks can be, let me say, amended or changed. Probably I think that, because I expect more questions on this, let me say, item, that Europe realized that has a competitive gap on, for sure, electric vehicles against China.

We have seen Stellantis what have done a few days ago in terms of write-off, and the competitors from Eastern Asia are eating up their market, especially now in Germany, and they are suffering. The second issue is about energy production.

That in the last few years a lot of coal-fired plant has been, let me say, announced the phase-out. I think that the world, and especially Europe and United States, will need more energy.

There will be more emission. The issue today, I don't think is that to swap back from, let me say, green emission to, let me say, grey emission is that probably we need more energy, and in a short period of time, more energy can come only from fire-coal plants, and this will increase the emission.

Probably a release on certain level of, let me say, quotas can help more energy production. I don't think, frankly speaking, that after EU has poured billions and billions in grants, especially in cement and steel, will now revert his, let me say, attitude.

Even if the phase-out of certain, let me say, criticals threshold in CO2 emission will not, let me say, change the attitude that in this sector, I can say that, especially from the bigger competitor, is quite constructive because we are starting to implement, let me say, the technology to produce green cement, probably in the next 5 years. Today, except, as you all know, a small plant in Norvegia owned by Heidelberg, in the next 5 years no one will produce low-carbon cement.

I don't know how this can, let me say, affect, let me say, the system or the balance sheet of the cement player in the next 5 years. Then, if we will have more, let me say, probably in the phase two, I mean after 2035 to 2050, to have, let me say, a more comfortable, let me say, path to arrive to zero cement, probably this can help.

Now I don't think, and this is my personal attitude, that, let me say, they want to stop or to slow down because, compared to United States, for example, as 90% or more or less 90% of the cement in the United States is owned by European players, and they can transfer the technology from Europe to United States. That is the only, I think, way because usually we take the technology from United States and we bring to Europe.

I don't think that the cement sector, that today is at the edge of this technical shift, should, let me say, stop or Europe should push to stop. Let's see.

We are at the very beginning. They are started to talk about enhancement of the framework, but probably we have to wait June or July to understand which will be, let me say, the future framework for CO2 emission quotas.

Wim Hoste

Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni of Kepler Cheuvreux.

Matteo Bonizzoni

Yes, thank you and good evening. I have some questions.

The first one is relating on Accsion. What you're writing in your press release on Accsion is that in 2026, you will expend €60 million of capex, but the sum in terms of capex has increased from €100 to €120 million.

You were guiding, if I'm right, €90 million to €100 and now it has become €120 million. Above all, you are also saying that the 2027-28 capex figure are not including Accsion because you are waiting these, let's say, higher visibility or details on the third-party, public and private entities, capex for the logistic and storage and so on.

What is at stake here? You have not put the capex because you don't know the timing, you have not put the capex because you don't know exactly if they will fulfill these investments?

Help us understand what is at stake here in terms of your decision not to put this capex in your capex plan. Then, regulation on CO2, second question, you have partly answered.

Clearly is a hot topic now, no, because the market is reasoning about the potential impact of these revisions, which so far has been just leaked by press sources, by the way. I would say these relates the phase-out of free allocation, which could be postponed, these relates the cap and other technicalities.

My question is, in case this revision is going to prove true, would you enter a sort of wait-and-see and stand-by stance on your decarbonization project or absolutely not, you are in any case committed to go ahead according to your previous plans? Third question if I may is price premium for green cement.

There is a debate in the market. You have just said that currently only Heidelberg Materials is selling a small quantity compared to the overall market of green cement.

How can we know that the green cement will enjoy a good pricing premium or not in a mass-market situation? Because there are various versions here.

Somebody is saying that absolutely this is very unlikely, okay, that the market will be ready to pay a decent premium, okay, or a big premium, and other sources which, for example, Heidelberg Materials clearly are more constructive. How big part of the equation of the return is price premium, yes or not?

What's your view? It's very early days, I think it's very difficult to provide an answer to this, but maybe you have a view.

Last is Belgium, if I may. Where we are on the European grant?

I am understanding that you could achieve a grant in Belgium maybe this year or next year. Also, given that it's not a coastal plant differently from Aalborg and is also smaller, slightly smaller plant, in terms of return and cost to do the carbon capture and storage, how it differs from Aalborg?

Thanks.

Francesco Caltagirone

Let's start with first, on Accsion project. We wanted to put what is already approved by our board as for, let me say, investment.

For sure we have put this around the €70 million because is the electric line and transformer that will allow the plant to ask for more energy after the CCS implementation. Regarding the remaining €120, because, as you can imagine, this is a new technology, we are talking about contracts that, let me say, will or contractor that will supply material in 4 or 5 years and so there is also their view in inflation.

That especially the metals, but the price of raw material are increasing. Our, let me say, forecast of €100 we have rounded to €120.

I think it's a minor adjustment. We are going to put this €120 that is roughly €30 million per year for the 3 or 4 years, depending on when we will have the complete, let me say, scenario, when we will be aware of the whole scenario, because beside our investment in the plant together with Air Liquide, we need to have the connection with the pipeline that is built by a public company, Evida, and then we also need the final certification of the storage area.

This will arrive between the first half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. If there are delays, I think we need to postpone this €120 million of investment.

For this reason we haven't put so far. We just, let me say, underlined that the costs are there, but we think that probably, frankly speaking, because if we have to wait the half of 2027, we will start to spend in 2028 as earlier.

Is the last year of this Industrial Plan, and as you can imagine, I don't think that we are going to spend all the €120 million in 1 year. This is the reason why we prefer to have this kind of approach.

The second question is about the green cement. Today, as I said, there is no green cement availability except for a small quantity because even in Norway they are in a ramp-up, the plant should produce 400,000 tons of green cement, but today, from my learning, we are around the half because there is a ramp-up and this is usual.

Today there is no premium price and probably we are already asked by the Norwegian government to buy because we produce, as ready-mix in Norway and we buy cement, and they are, let me say, obliged the customer to use this cement, especially for public works. We will buy some small quantities of this green cement made by Heidelberg in Norway, but let's say, I think that in the next 5 years, this kind of, let me say, mandatory usage of this cement should be, let me say, enlarged especially in the Nordic country because most of the green cement production will be there.

I am aware because I had recently direct talk with the Danish government that especially after the Greenland issue with United States, they don't want, let me say, to change their approach especially for this Green Deal because somebody in USA are telling exactly the opposite. I don't know, I am, let me say, an entrepreneur, but let's say just 10 days ago, I could, let me say, realize that there is a strong willingness to go forward, and also we have applied for the Danish fund that should supply another tranche of grant for this project.

We will be aware of the final results of this after Easter. When we will have the grant, we already have received the grant from European Union, as I said, the execution risk for this project should be very limited, considering also that we are the only producer in Denmark and so I don't think that we have other players that can continue to sell cement, let me say, that won't be greener, let me say.

On CCB, the project is more or less the same, the only difference is that in Belgium there is not onshore storage. Today the design of the project consider that we ship the CO2 by pipeline that has to be built to one port in Belgium, and then transfer by ship to the Aalborg port and then injected in the same storage area of Aalborg.

For sure I expect that before, because we have, let me say, at last nearly 2 years of delay compared to Aalborg, that the price should be lower and even the size. We have applied for a grant for Belgium last year.

We were, let me say,

Marco Maria Bianconi

qualified,

Francesco Caltagirone

but they didn't have, let me say, enough fund. We expect we don't have to submit another time, we just need that they refinance, let me say, and they should refinance for our sector and for other sector this year.

We expect that this year, probably October, November, we should have, let me say, some news. I don't know if I missed some questions.

Matteo Bonizzoni

No, thanks. Just a short one: what is the fee which you are going to pay to Air Liquide?

Because Air Liquide is going to do most of the capex, no? I don't want to know million euro, but I think they are doing most of the capex, they will want to be remunerated, no?

Can you confirm that?

Francesco Caltagirone

Yes. I cannot say this now because it also depends on the time frame.

They can have, as usual as you can imagine, in every kind of project a sort of premium if they go faster, because the technology is provided by them, is not provided by us. There is also a sort of level of satisfaction between I don't know, I can say between 90% of capture and 100%.

It depends where we will end at the end with the real capture of CO2 between 90% and 100%. Frankly speaking, it's too earlier now.

It also depends because the grant that we should receive from the Danish government should help to, let me say, build the right, let me say, cost formula for this cement.

Matteo Bonizzoni

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Alessandro Tortora of Mediobanca.

Alessandro Tortora

Yes, hi. Good evening to everybody.

I have three questions, please. The first one is just a follow-up on the Accsion project just to understand better.

You mentioned the possibility, no, to get this Danish fund. Is it something that is going to help on the capex or on the opex side of the Accsion project?

This is the first question. The second question is on let's say the Türkiye, no, outlook.

If I understood well, no, you mentioned several reasons on top of the change perimeter why Türkiye is going to, no, have a negative contribution in EBITDA in 2026. Can you give us an idea of what are, let's say, the moving parts considering that the low end of your EBITDA guidance is basically assuming a zero growth.

Which kind, let's say, of outlook you see because we also mentioned this post-earthquake demand that is going to normalize in Türkiye this year. This is the second question.

The third one is just a comment on let's say this steep decline in CO2 prices we saw over the last month. Let's say, may this change into CO2 prices, this decline, may change your commercial approach this year for the pricing standpoint or, let us say, are let's say your price listing in a certain way pegged a little bit to CO2 prices?

Just to understand how you are going to manage this change into this CO2 price outlook. Thanks.

Danish fund: the

Francesco Caltagirone

Danish fund is a fund that will supply us, let me say, a balancing from higher energy cost and will be on opex and will last 15 years starting 2030. It will last till 2045 and should contribute to lower and balance the extra cost for energy.

Today we don't know how much will be because we will know in April. The second question is about this year forecast.

As I said, the perimeter is a bit changed, just a matter of 1.5%. We were slightly positive in November when we built this Industrial Plan, but today, after 6 weeks of very harsh winter, is difficult to expect that, let's say, we can, let me say, do better because, let's say, we expect that till the end of February there will be, let me say, a lower output in Scandinavia, in Turkey, and partly also in Northern Europe.

This is affect the whole market. For sure this will be recovered, but a couple of months, this is the worst winter in the last 15 years in the Nordics.

Regarding your last question about declining of the CO2 price, this is, I think, is not affecting because, let's say, we pass the cost as it is on monthly basis, on an average, to the customer. If it increase, the price will increase, if it will decrease, let me say, we will decrease.

It's like VAT, right? Something that we collect and we give back.

Alessandro Tortora

Okay. Sorry, and this is a revision like, I don't know, a monthly revision you do or it is let's say something new triggered, just to understand because, as I said again...

Francesco Caltagirone

No, no, there is we we we charge the customer with a formula on monthly basis, monthly basis.

Alessandro Tortora

Okay. Sorry, is this formula used, let's say, in all your countries or we are referring, I don't know, to all the countries, I would say except for, I don't know, Turkey, Egypt, just to understand the perimeter of this formula?

Francesco Caltagirone

We charge this in France, Belgium, and Scandinavia, yes, we use this formula. This, I think, is the most widespread formula used by also other competitors.

Because nobody want to hedge or to leverage on CO2. It's a tax.

Alessandro Tortora

Thank you.

Francesco Caltagirone

We divert that as it is.

Alessandro Tortora

Thanks a lot. Clear.

Operator

The next question is from Egor Sonin of AlphaValue.

Egor Sonin

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions.

For 2026 and 2020 till 2028, your plan assume higher raw material, electricity, and fuel costs. Is it possible to provide EBITDA sensitivity to change in energy and raw material costs or at least some colors or how we could think about it?

What will be the most costly raw materials, what would be the most expensive higher costs which we can foresee in our estimations? Thank you.

Hi.

Francesco Caltagirone

Let's say that in our forecast, we put, let me say, an increase, but we are hedged at 75% in the energy, both petcoke and gas, and also in and coal, and electricity. We are, let me say, covered in full mostly this year and, as I said, nearly 75% '27 and '28.

Let's say that if the price increased, probably we won't suffer anything meaningful, and the same if the price will be lower, our cost structure will remain flat. This is when you hedge.

We don't expect, but most of this uncertainty mainly is the exchange rate against dollar because you pay petcoke with dollars, and also in electricity, it seems that the peak of 2022 now has been, let me say, fully digested and the price should, for the next 2, 3, let's say that today some supplier are all even open to make contract that can last 10 or 15 years flat, as you can, let me say. I don't think that cost inflation should hamper our Industrial Plan, frankly speaking.

Egor Sonin

Okay. Thank you very much for your answer.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti of Banca IMI.

Bruno Permutti

Yes. Thank you for taking my question.

I wanted to ask something about the guidance you gave of 6-7% revenue CAGR for 2026-2028. On the recovery that you expect in the Nordic & Baltic from 2027, is there something specific that you are thinking of in terms of infrastructure projects that will accelerate in that period?

If you can elaborate a little bit on that. As for Turkey beyond 2026, what is the outlook you have in mind?

You believe that there will be an increase in demand also for export from Turkey, and that this could create some opportunity also for the domestic market? It is a realistic option.

Lastly, on the prices, what is the outlook you see in the short term for 2026, if you see some price pressure somewhere? Thank you.

Francesco Caltagirone

Starting from, let me say, the last one, the only place where today we see some mild price pressure is just in China because of the economic environment, but let's say we are in white cement and usually, let me say, this is not so, let me say, big. On the other geographies, it seems that the framework is constructive, stable with a mild increase.

Marco Maria Bianconi

Turkey after 2026.

Francesco Caltagirone

Turkey after 2026, as you can imagine, Turkey is the first supplier of the Mediterranean area, and as we already shared with you a few times, is the first candidate to supply reconstruction in Ukraine, already started in Syria, and partly in Gaza Strip. For sure we are in the latest phases of, let me say, the earthquake reconstruction, and it's difficult to have an agenda on what will happen in Ukraine, on what will happen even in Iran because Iran is a neighbor, we don't know which is the outcome there.

Also Syria is the only country that is really, let me say, start to have an inflow of Turkish cement, and also on Gaza Strip, you are aware that the talks are open and we don't know. It's difficult today to say that we haven't considered in our Industrial Plan, we are conservative, but we think that this, let me say, should build up in the next years for sure, and Turkey is, let me say, the only candidate because has this capacity and is surrounded by this big possibility to export cement.

In Nordic & Baltic, mainly, let me say, in the last 3 years, like most players, from France to Nordics, we are experienced, let me say, lower volume, especially for macro reason. We expect because the rates are lower.

Beside now that for sure, I think, as I said, the first quarter and the first half will be hit by the, let me say, atmospheric issues, that the demand should, let me say, broaden. One reason also because this year we are expecting, let me say, flat EBITDA compared to last year is because, let me say, the Fehmarn project is the delay on the project is growing.

Probably now, because it's the Danish government, they expect a 2-year delay. That is not 2-year from the start, but let me say that this project are developing slowly.

We have lowered for this year nearly 30%, 40% the quantity that will go to this project, but for sure then we will have another 2 years more at the end. These are, let me say, our expectation, but are mainly linked to macro environment, the increasing in quantities.

Bruno Permutti

Thank you.

Operator

For any further questions, please press * and 1 on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press * and 1.

The next question is from Carlo Maritano of Intermonte.

Carlo Maritano

Hi, good evening, everyone. I just have one question on the net cash guidance for 2028.

If I start from your expectation from 2026, it seems that there is only €100 million of cash generation in the later years in your business plan. I was wondering what is driving this cautiousness and if this target include the capex that is not included in the other slides.

Just to understand what are the building blocks of this guidance. Thank you.

Marco Maria Bianconi

Yes, Carlo. In fact, the cumulative cash flow we are expecting is €330 million in 3 years, is about €110 million of free cash flow per year.

Please bear in mind that this is after the payment of a progressive dividend, which we expect to grow in line with the earnings, with a dividend payout ratio of 20% to 25%. Clearly it's not particularly conservative, I think it's a realistic scenario, and I think it's broadly in line with the historical cash generation of the company, north of €100 million a year, and it clearly includes the expected capex that we are earmarked in the slides, which is €309 million of maintenance capex and €77 million of sustainability capex cumulative in the '26-'28 period.

Carlo Maritano

Okay. Thank you.

Marco Maria Bianconi

Sure.

Operator

For any further questions, please press * and 1. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Marco Maria Bianconi

Okay. Thank you very much for your interest in Cementir Holding, and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day.

Thank you.

Francesco Caltagirone

Good evening.

Marco Maria Bianconi

Bye-bye.

Francesco Caltagirone

Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over.

You may disconnect your telephones.