Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 6, 2026

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode.

Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two.

Please limit yourself to one question today. Please note that this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Paul Luther

Thank you, Chloe. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call.

I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Patrick, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation, in earnings press release, and in our most recent SEC filings.

In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income, and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion.

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

John Plant

Thank you, PT, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Howmet Q2 earnings call. Let's start with the highlights on slide 4.

Howmet completed a successful second quarter. Headline revenues were up 24% year-over-year with strong incremental margins of 46%, and that was after some impact from the CAM acquisition.

Excluding all the M&A activity this year, organic growth was very healthy at 21% for the quarter and 20% for the first half. EBITDA margin in Q2 was 32.1%, an increase of 340 basis points year-over-year, including the absorption of CAM starting in April.

2027 is the focus year for our CAM optimization plan to begin to drive noticeable synergies. Operating margin was 28.8%.

Second-quarter free cash flow was just under half a billion dollars, and free cash flow totaled approximately $840 million for the first half. Earnings per share were $1.33, an increase of 46% year-over-year.

A total of $600 million in shares were repurchased in the first half of the year, with $300 million being made in the second quarter. We continued to repurchase shares in July for a further $200 million, which resulted in repurchases in 2026 already greater than in 2025.

In addition, a further $186 million of debt was retired. I'll now pass the call to Patrick, who will set out the end-market growth percentages and provide some segment commentary.

Patrick Winterlich

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone.

Please move to slide 5. It was another strong quarter for Howmet, with all end markets growing.

We are well-positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Total revenue was up 24% in the first quarter.

Excluding the net impact of the three transactions we completed this year, revenue was up 21% year-over-year, an acceleration from the 19% organic growth rate in the first quarter. Commercial aerospace growth was strong at 28%, with organic growth of 26%, driven by demand for both new builds and spares.

We continue to see higher spares demand on both legacy and next-generation engines. Defense aerospace growth continued to be solid at 11%, with organic growth of 7%, reflecting healthy spares activity as well as higher legacy fighter demand.

Commercial transportation revenue was up 12%, driven by the pass-through of higher aluminum costs. On a volume basis, wheels was down 8%.

However, on a sequential basis, wheels volumes were up 7% as the North American market began to recover. Gas turbine growth remained very strong, with revenue up 38%.

Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. Growth in other market of 39% was largely driven by the Böllhoff Fastener acquisition completed in February.

Within Howmet's markets, spares growth remained robust. Total spares revenue across the commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and gas turbine markets was up 37% to approximately $560 million.

Spares represent a greater portion of our total revenue than historically, now at approximately 22% through the first half of 2026. In summary, continued strong performance in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and gas turbines, with the commercial transportation market recovery underway.

Moving to slide 6, starting with the P&L. Second-quarter revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of guidance.

On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 24% and 21% organically, the strongest quarterly growth rate for the company since the first quarter of 2023. EBITDA continued to outpace revenue growth, up 39%, the strongest growth in EBITDA since the third quarter of 2021.

EBITDA margin increased 340 basis points to 32.1%, despite a modest headwind from the CAM acquisition. Incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was healthy at 46% year-over-year.

Earnings per share were $1.33, up 46% year-over-year. Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow.

The balance sheet remains strong, with a quarter-end cash balance of $564 million. Free cash flow in the quarter was excellent at $479 million.

Net debt to trailing EBITDA finished the quarter at 1.4 times following the completion of the CAM acquisition. During the quarter, we paid down our $186 million Japanese yen term loan due November 2026.

In addition, during the quarter, we entered into a cross-currency swap to synthetically convert our $300 million note due 2028 into a Japanese yen liability. The combined effect of these two actions saves approximately $12 million in annualized interest expense.

Liquidity remains strong, with an undrawn $1 billion revolver complemented by a $1 billion commercial paper program, $450 million of which was drawn to support the CAM acquisition. Turning to capital deployment, CapEx was $104 million in the quarter.

The majority of our capital spend continues to be in the Engine Products segment as we continue to invest for growth in both the aerospace and gas turbines markets. Investments are backed by customer contracts.

In the quarter, we repurchased $300 million of common stock at an average price of $251 per share. We repurchased an additional $200 million in July at an average price of $277 per share.

This brings year-to-date repurchases to $800 million at an average price of $248 per share. As of today, the remaining authorization from the board of directors for share repurchases is approximately $700 million.

We continue to be confident in strong future free cash flow. We announced an increase in the Q3 quarterly stock dividend of 17%, from 12 cents per share to 14 cents per share, payable this August.

Finally, turning to M&A, we completed the previously announced CAM Fastener acquisition on April 6th for approximately $1.8 billion, and the integration is on track. Now let's move to slide 7 to cover the segment results for the second quarter.

The Engine Products team delivered another excellent quarter for revenue growth, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 32% to $1.37 billion.

Commercial aerospace was up 37%, and defense aerospace was up 17%. The gas turbines market was up 38%.

Demand continues to be strong for both original equipment and spares. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 51% to $517 million.

EBITDA margin increased 470 basis points to 37.7%, while absorbing approximately 485 net new employees in the quarter, positioning us well for future growth. Please move to slide 8.

Fastening Systems had another solid quarter. Revenue increased 37% to $589 million, including the impact of the CAM and Böllhoff acquisitions.

Commercial aerospace was up 39%, and defense aerospace was up 45%. Commercial transport was flat year-over-year.

Excluding the impact from acquisitions, total fasteners growth was double digits. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 40% to $177 million.

EBITDA margin increased 90 basis points to 30.1%, reflecting continued operational execution. As expected, margins declined sequentially, driven by the addition of the CAM business in the second quarter.

Moving to slide 9. The Engineered Structures team continues to drive improvement in the business.

Revenue declined 13% to $269 million due to the divestiture of the Savannah disc forging facility on March 31st. Excluding the impact of Savannah, revenue growth was approximately flat.

We continue to focus on higher-margin and stronger-return opportunities in the business. EBITDA margin increased 170 basis points to 23.8% as we continue to optimize the structures segment to maximize profitability.

Finally, please turn to slide 10. Forged Wheels delivered another healthy quarter.

Revenue was up 14% as an 8% decrease in volume was more than offset by higher aluminum pass-through. Volumes rose 7% from the first quarter as the North American market began to recover.

EBITDA was $88 million, an increase of 16% despite lower volume. EBITDA margin increased 30 basis points year-over-year, but declined 270 basis points sequentially, reflecting the dilutive effect of sharply higher aluminum cost pass-through.

Higher metal pass-through diluted margins by approximately 360 basis points year-over-year, but had no material impact on EBITDA dollars. This dilutive impact on margin percentage is likely to continue at least for the next couple of quarters.

EBITDA dollars were largely unchanged sequentially. We continue to outgrow the market, driven by our premium products.

Now let me turn the call back to John.

John Plant

Thank you, Patrick, and please move to slide 11. Let me turn to the outlook.

First, as you can see, the first-half outcomes have been achieved while also facing a turbulent economic and political backdrop. The tailwinds experienced have reflected more robust build rates for commercial aircraft and also for a positive order intake for commercial truck builds.

In addition, IGT demand has been extraordinary. Moving specifically to commercial aerospace, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in increased volatility of jet fuel and gasoline prices and has impacted recent commercial air traffic activity.

Howmet has not experienced any changes in customer demand. Throughout the conflict to date, air freight volumes have continued to strengthen.

At the same time, interest rates have climbed, reflecting higher inflationary signals, and the outlook for near-term rate cuts has dimmed. Despite the issues in the Middle East, orders for new aircraft have continued to grow, and the overall backlog has increased.

This bodes well for future aircraft build rates, with increases being seen for the balance of 2026 into 2027 and beyond. The business jet segment also continues to be strong, with increases both in new aircraft build and spares.

Defense sales also continue to be strong, especially for spares on legacy aircraft, with the F-35 OE build continuing to be solid. The near-term outlook for our missile business continues to strengthen, with demand increases being either seen or signaled for the PAC-3, THAAD, Tomahawk, and some classified programs.

The focus on engines for large missiles, drones, and collaborative combat aircraft continues, with growth expected in the medium term. Turning to gas turbines, we have completed negotiations with the last of our seven major customers, though the overall picture continues to expand, with some customers already wanting to revisit and add to their demand outlooks.

This gas turbine demand growth, both for large, small, and medium-sized turbines, is further supported by new gas turbine blade applications, and also increased new product technology introductions. These will help Howmet to outgrow its current market share.

Our capital expenditure requirements continue to increase, and while this year we are now likely to exceed $500 million in capital spend, we are already seeing the need to further increase this in 2027. This increased level of capital expenditure provides support to our future organic growth expectations.

The outlook for free cash flow conversion of net income is maintained at our 90% target conversion throughout the period. The resultant cash flows to date have enabled us to deploy capital for organic growth, execute share buybacks, and support dividend growth, while also absorbing a significant acquisition.

Continued healthy cash generation should allow us to return our leverage level back to approximately 1 times net debt to EBITDA by year end, the same level that we exited 2025. Given the high level of our capital expenditure plus our acquisitions of almost $2 billion and the share buybacks of an amount already exceeding 2025, our leverage level is very comfortable and allows us to consider all paths of optionality going forward.

Moving now to the commercial truck wheels business, the results are strong, even after coping with extraordinary increases in the aluminum LME and Midwest premiums. Growth into the second quarter accelerated, and the outlook for the balance of the year looks healthy, with external forecasters now envisaging an even stronger 2027.

Moving to specific numbers for the guide, and reflecting the typical third-quarter seasonality, including European vacations, our numbers are: revenue in the third quarter of $2.75 billion, plus or minus $10 million; EBITDA of $830 million, plus or minus $5 million; earnings per share of $1.35, plus or minus a penny. For the full-year guide, this is increased again to revenue of $10.05 billion, plus or minus $50 million; EBITDA of $3.23 billion, plus or minus $20 million; earnings per share of $5.27, plus or minus 4 cents; free cash flow is seen to be $1.9 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

These guide increases are across the board, given our growing confidence in the year. In closing, the Howmet team delivered a solid first-half performance, with prospects for further growth and a robust second half as outlined.

In November, at our Q3 earnings call, we expect to provide our first sighting of the 2027 revenue, which we expect will be an increase over 2026. With that, we'll now move to the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please limit yourself to one question.

At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

Please go ahead.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Good morning, John, Patrick, and PT. John, you noted IGT customers continue to revise upward their demand outlook, and I don't blame them, who wouldn't want more?

You're talking about higher CapEx for the foreseeable future. What are you seeing in the competitive dynamics at play in the IGT market in terms of the technology advantage you have, the scale which you could produce, and how are you thinking about your own ability to support these ramps as a few of your peers also seek new business there?

Thank you.

John Plant

Thanks Sheila, and good morning to you. Let's deal with scale first, and I think I'll start off with saying it's important to note that Howmet has a market share in excess of 50% globally for turbine blades in the IGT market.

Therefore the growth of that market is dependent upon our willingness to invest, which we're doing. We've already commented in previous calls about the new plant we built in Japan, the major expansion in Europe, let's call it a new plant, and also building out the capital in our existing footprint in Virginia in the US.

In addition to facilitization with very substantial investments in new capital equipment, we have created additional space in our Virginia plant by exiting some or moving some nickel alloy work so that we can either make additional IGT equiaxed or if not, some additional titanium castings. I guess we'll deploy that space on a first-come, first-served basis, and see expansion.

It's for sure it's going to be sold out very quickly. We're also seeing, as I commented in my earlier remarks, that we have several new applications for existing technology, and also we have several new product introductions that we have to make over the next two or three years.

That leads us to believe that our market share will further increase. To date, the market is roughly split equally for turbine blades between equiaxed and directionally solidified parts, the single crystals still being a fairly minor part of the overall turbine blade topology, at a sort of less than 5%.

When you think about our technologies, first of all, for movement through the normal sequence through turbine blade applications, we see the opportunity of further moving from equiaxed to directionally solidified and then to single crystal. Albeit at the moment, the demand is such that customers really just want whatever we can make.

For the next couple of years, I expect the demand increases to be roughly split between equiaxed and directionally solidified. In terms of where does this go in the future, clearly we're going to move to an increased use of cored blades to allow airflow through them.

Again, that plays very much to the Howmet strength and our capabilities in very large cored blade capabilities. We'll see that increasingly be deployed as we go through towards 2030 and beyond.

I feel as though, both for new applications we're seeing, the technology movement and drift that will go on, and the capacitation that we have in a fairly good situation for us. Plus the elevated CapEx.

We have CapEx being significantly deployed in 2026, and in my comments about the future direction is that we will see another significant step up in 2027, which will be both for the industrial gas turbine market, but also for commercial aerospace. I certainly don't want to forget commercial aerospace because as recently as last week, I signed off in fact the building of a new plant in that area as well.

My expectation is we will continue to meet market demand, we'll grow with the market, and I think we'll also grow with those new product introductions beyond the market and increase our overall share. I'll just digress for a moment because I do want to cover something which has been topical of late, and that is, is there a threat for data centers in space?

I'll just speak very briefly to that because it is something which has been raised. Clearly, conceptually, the opportunity of getting more direct access and using solar arrays is possible.

It's a big solution to solve what may be a permitting problem at the moment. There's a lot of technical things which have to be overcome.

Starting with if you're going to put a gigawatt of capacity into space, then maybe you've got to lift 20,000 tons. What sort of rockets and frequency of launches do you need to get that?

I imagine to do one data center using a current rocket technology, it's going to be 1,000 launches, or maybe it's 150 or 200 Starship launches. That's obviously a lot more than we have today.

The benefit is you don't need to get permits. The issues of maintenance of replacement of GPUs every couple of years, and also the sheer scale of the solar arrays, and the issue of space debris, and how do you fix them once you've been hit with debris over let's say 4 square kilometers of unit.

Those are big things to overcome. I think we're looking at really sometime in the 2040s or maybe it's the 2050s to consider this as a likely outcome.

I just thought I'd try to give that perspective while talking about the overall current market as well.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Appreciate it. Thank you.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Doug Harned

Good morning. Thank you.

Just John, continuing on the IGT path here, as you've talked about, the demand is extraordinary. You've talked about a number, six or seven new agreements that you've signed.

What I'm trying to understand here is how quickly can one respond to demand in terms of sort of signing a deal and then actually delivering products on that? I say it cuz your reference to SpaceX, this week they talked about adding at least 15 gigawatts of terrestrial capacity over the next 18 months.

Is it possible to respond to this kind of growth, since you're the leading player on blades?

John Plant

I'll start with 2026, Doug, and our let's say 30% 35%, 38% increase in revenue has actually exceeded what I thought we would possibly do, and that's been mainly from achieving yield improvements on the existing asset base. Albeit if you go back and look at the comments I made towards the back end of '24, where we were talking about making some investment in IGT, which was let's say notable because we've not really talked about it before, and then what we've talked about in 2025, especially given the consequences of the new administration and their fossil fuel focus, then we do have the benefit of some of that capacity coming on stream.

With the delivery of our first new large casting machine into Japan, and another one's going to follow in the second half. In fact, that new plant that in fact I visited in April is already essentially fully spoken for.

We have one casting pit left, but I think that capacity is going to be gone. We have a progressive build-out of what we've already committed by way of significant investments.

For the new, I will say, gigawatts of capacity coming on, then really we're looking at 2028, 2029, and even the more recent ones, '29 into 2030. What I expect is that we will see growth throughout the next four or five years, and we've installed some of that already, some of it's already logged to come in in '27, but with another major step into '28 and '29.

I suspect that we may not have finished yet, because as I said earlier, we are seeing some of the demand patterns revisited, and so I think there's more at play to come, which we haven't built into our future plans yet because, until it's more certain, then we'll just hold off on that and be careful. It's not a single item which equals capacity in X.

If we started now, you can assume that it's a brand new commitment, in let's say August of '26, you can say it's earliest August of '28 if you just say, "Okay, what's the next piece of machine equipment that we could build or if we could get from our machine tool suppliers?" Even we've had to book capacity at some of those on the expectation of some of this coming through just to make sure we can be responsive to our customers.

Doug Harned

Okay. Thank you.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Robert Stallard

Thanks so much. Good morning.

John Plant

Hi, Rob.

Robert Stallard

John, I was wondering if you could give us an update on what you're seeing on aerospace OEM and the wide-body market, how those rates are progressing, and whether you think Howmet has enough capacity in place for the targeted rates or even beyond that. Thank you.

John Plant

By way of capacity, essentially the majority of our manufacturing equipment, that equipment does not know whether it's building parts for a narrow-body aircraft or a wide-body aircraft. It'll have I'll say similar casting machines, similar transfer presses, and going through similar I'll say continuously moving heat treatment furnaces or kilns.

For us, it's more a question of the overall market rather than wide-body per se. We do feel as though wide-body will increase over the next I'll say couple of years, and there are demand increases signaled at both Boeing for the 787 up to rate 10 until if their South Carolina plant is further expanded, and then maybe opportunities to go significantly higher after that expansion.

Then also Airbus, which has probably struggled on the A350 over the last two or three years, and now seem to be entering a period where there's some confidence that their let's say rate 5 or 6 will move to 8 or 9 over the next year. We're getting increasingly confident that with the freighter plus additional A350 demand, that that will also move up significantly in the future.

We do expect, on a percentage basis, large increases in the wide-body market and build rates over the next say two or three years. Also we're going to see, I think, increases in the narrow-body market also for the 737, for the A320.

We are poised with additional capacity. We've already prepared and I think I just referenced a new plant that we committed to last week, a major expansion and building out of one of the sites we have to create the opportunity for that further expansion that's going to be required.

Robert Stallard

Thanks, John.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Scott Deuschle

Hi. Good morning.

John, is today's commercial aerospace growth in Engine Products seeing any benefit from shipping these newer higher-value multi-chemistry coatings, or is that transition to multi-chemistry coatings still largely in front of you? Then I was wondering if you could help contextualize the scope of the growth opportunity that that provides.

Thank you.

John Plant

Okay. We have, first of all, again, been increasing our coating capacity the past two or three years, and indeed coat both our own turbine blades and also those of others in the industry.

That expansion is continued with let's say what called new coating guns and pits. In fact, we have just completed the last available space in our Whitehall facility, pending a decision about whether we again expand the footprint of that.

That is facilitated for multi-chemistry, and also the opportunity to put all of the coatings on at the same time. Today we already put on more than one type of coating, but if you're talking about some of the exotic coating capability, we actually do not do separate batch runs through that capacity.

We're able to deposit all of the different chemistries all at the same time, and do it on both the external surfaces and also the internal surfaces of the turbine blades through some very small orifices that need to have this chemical deposition at a nanoparticle level of I'll say technology deposition on a very consistent basis because you cannot afford to block any of the airflow passages. A short answer is, yes, we're facilitizing.

We're just building out the ability to do multiple depositions all in one, and we're actually facing the decision now, do we actually expand the plant? It's probably more likely than not given I'm already very predisposed to actually buying the advanced equipment for that, which in extremis because we've tend to get ahead of these things.

It's a three-year lead time for some of that very exotic equipment.

Scott Deuschle

Thank you.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hey,

Seth Seifman

thanks very much and good morning. Wanted to ask about the ramp on commercial aero sales in the engine business.

It was a pretty I think about 10% sequential growth in the quarter. Assuming that that's driven in large part by new capacity that you've added, in terms of that new capacity that started coming online at the end of last year, I guess how far are you towards the utilization of that new capacity and how do we think about that continued kind of sequential trajectory from here?

John Plant

We still have some of the machines that we have installed coming up to full rate, and we've also been building out the employee base that is necessary to go along with that build-out across all the shifts. From the existing past expansions we signaled, there's still some equipment still to flow in during the second half of 2026.

It's not like one and done, Seth. It's going to be additional equipment that we have to install from what we've already committed to and contracted, either with external machine tool manufacturers or if not our own.

For example, in building of our own casting machines that we do. We have a very active program of doing that over the next I'll say two or three years, both for commercial aerospace and the IGT market.

When we're looking at it right now, we do need to make further investments beyond what we have today to be able to achieve the stated rates that our customers will want as we go forward. The only question we have is, example, what's the total size of the narrow-body market, total size of the wide-body market?

Then add them together, because for us it's less a question of is it this aircraft platform or that aircraft platform, but it's the aggregate of all of them put together. Plus in addition to that, the spares demand, and as you've seen, spares growth has also been very substantial.

We expect that to continue to be positive because we've still got the transition for the LEAP-1B, and then some I'll say retrofit on that, plus I'll say while we've started the GTF Advantage for Pratt & Whitney, there's a very large increase to be achieved in the second half of this year and even larger into and through 2027.

Seth Seifman

Great. Thanks very much.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ken Herbert

Hi, John. I wanted to just follow up on the aerospace capacity theme for a minute.

Boeing and Airbus are talking about getting to production rates that are 25% to 30% higher than where they peaked pre-pandemic. You've got a lot of moving pieces on the engine side in particular, but where do you think you and the industry are in terms of supporting those rates 3 to 4 years from now?

Ultimately, what's the interest to book capacity and to support those rates when you're going to be hitting those rates right when you're likely talking about new narrowbody clean-sheet aircraft?

John Plant

It's very difficult to predict the date of entry into service of a new narrowbody, and it's probably even more difficult to predict what form the engines are on those let's say aircraft platform selections, just because some of the options are mutually exclusive in terms of wing design, and therefore it's going to depend upon more fundamental questions of sourcing strategy whether you go single source or dual source and your preparedness to do so, and what risk are involved. That's one big topic to be considered around a date uncertain picture.

I think more pertinent is probably so what is the true demand pattern over the next let's say 3 to 5-year horizon, and its sustainability, because again, we don't want to certainly invest for a singular-year peak, and then face the I'll say demand destruction thereafter. We have to be continually monitoring the aircraft backlogs and surety around those in terms of what's the propensity for cancellation and how many are real orders versus options, and therefore what's the true demand pattern?

When we look at things like narrowbody previous highs, which may have got to about 100 between Boeing and Airbus for the 737 and A320 in 2019, then if you look at today's, you add those two aircraft platforms plus the A220, and what do they peak out at? The question is, is that combined 125 versus the 100 prior peak, or is it 150?

What's the ability of the whole supply base to be able to support those levels of demand, and then what's the sustainability thereof? I think it's reasonable to say that it's clear we're going to make more.

The degree to which we have to make more is really yet to be determined. I suppose it's to some degree also same as we view you'd say rate increases, where we think they're likely, but when we see numbers maybe spike for a moment, then we'll let inventory deal with that while we recruit the workforce to be able to operate and produce those parts inside our capacity envelope.

It's a very live topic, and you also have to look at not just what can Howmet produce, but also what's the ability of the whole industry to march in lockstep, and what's the weakest link in that chain of build rate increase? There's been a lot of commentary in recent years about those weak links, and the supply base, as has been held as responsible for much of the build rate issues.

Again, whether that's justified or not, that's not a question for Howmet.

Operator

The next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Myles Walton

Thanks. Good morning.

I was wondering if you could touch on Fastener operations below the surface of the acquisition. In particular, are you, John, starting to see the pull on the wide-body yet, or is just the commentary more positive at this point?

John Plant

We are beginning to see the pull. If you were to say are we anticipating getting to let's say rate 9 or even rate 10 towards the back end of 2027 for 787, then yes, we begin to see demand fill in for those increased rates above the let's say level of 6 or 7 last year and possibly now production of 8.

We are beginning to see that. Of course, it's still ways away from the prior peak in 2019 of 13 a month achieved on a few months.

Still well short of the anticipating numbers, which are well in excess of 13, which as I said earlier requires the capacity expansion in South Carolina to be done to achieve that. Yes, we're seeing it.

It's just part of the overall demand increase for our Fasteners business, because we are seeing increased demand across not just I'll say today's commercial aerospace platforms, but also for defense platforms and also for I'll say some of the larger drones, and also working with some of the I'll say the new tech defense companies as well, where we're seeing our first orders from those as well. We have a very broad-based increase in demand.

Our issue right now is to be able to cope with all of those increases. Again, we're putting investment into the legacy Fasteners business, and also we are providing additional capital to the new CAM acquisition as well.

Myles Walton

Can you update us where you are in the cutovers of the LEAP-1A, 1B, and GTF Advantage? Thanks.

John Plant

The 1A, 1B cutover to the new technology blade has not yet occurred. Now, we have tooled a lot of it, not all of it, and we'll see increased builds during the second half of 2026.

I expect we'll do the same as we did on the LEAP-1A and have a few hundred engine sets ready in either our or our customers' inventory such that the cutover, which I think will probably more likely be the first quarter of 2027, but again date not fixed, will be in a good supply situation for that cutover. Then there will be demand not just for the OE build, but also I'll say to refit some of the existing fleet with that more robust solution.

On GTF Advantage, similarly, we are building, and each month we're lifting our output, albeit it's nowhere near the rate that needs to be achieved currently. That applies to both the turbine blades and vanes for that aircraft engine.

What I see is that the back half of this year, I think that we'll probably be supplying the full volume of the legacy blade, with still a very large aftermarket demands because that's the only one that's truly available as a complete suite of upgrade for the engine. It's going to be the legacy blade at pretty full volumes for the balance of this year as building out increased production each quarter for the GTF Advantage, ready for sometime in 2027 to be fitted to aircraft engine which arrives at customers.

Plus also then the retrofit program, which I think is going to be an even bigger program for us than on the 1B.

Myles Walton

Thanks, John.

Operator

The next question comes from Scott Mikus with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Mikus

Morning, John and Patrick. Turning to the defense side, the F-35 fleet has seen heavy utilization in Iran.

Just curious about how you're thinking about the uplift to defense spares in the second half of this year and in 2027 as well, beyond what you were initially expecting. Is that also driving the need for incremental CapEx at Engine Products?

John Plant

I guess that question, Scott, needs to be widened out a little bit beyond just F-35 because of the other aircraft being flown, and also use of missiles as well. The very precise answer to are we seeing demand increase currently from all the additional missions flown and missile stocks utilized, the answer to that is, no.

We are not. In discussions with our engine customer, as recently as the air show last month, both of us are expecting to see a significant increase in spares demand coming from that.

I think we'll see it on aircraft from F-18s, 22s, F-35s, etc., plus the parts we supply to some of the stealth bombers, etc., etc. I think there's an anticipation of some bubble of demand coming, but I don't necessarily think It's not going to be in Q3 of 2026.

I don't know about Q4 yet. It's more likely a 2027 item that is anticipated, but not assured, because we don't have specific orders in hand or I'd say anticipated requirements in hand.

On the missile side, which I will say is currently very active given the use of missiles, and so we are being asked to consider various rate increase proposals across again, I'll say, two or three customers with the sort of missile programs I mentioned in my earlier remarks. To some degree, we've got to work our way through that in terms of the durability of that demand, and also it's actually competing for the space in our Virginia facility.

At the moment, we have nothing formally agreed by way of increased orders, which are going to be absolutely necessary should those missile programs actually get built out.

Scott Mikus

All right. Thank you.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead.

Peter Arment

Good morning, John, Patrick. Nice results.

Hey, John, if I look at fastening margins and if we backed out the CAM contribution, or at least our estimate, looks like you had again another kind of almost record margin for fastening. What's the best way to think about the timeline for synergies for the CAM acquisition?

Thanks.

John Plant

I think the first 3 months of the acquisition have been very much getting hold of, for example, their IT systems and correcting and improving them to have the latest levels of, let's say, CMMC capabilities for cyber security and a more modern approach in that area, whole IT suite. A lot of work has gone on there.

The usual assimilation and harmonization of benefit programs for the employees, and also an assessment of what needs to be done to improve the asset base. All of the original theses about what we think we can do by way of improving the margins is there, both for, I'll say, the more straightforward, I'll say operating synergies of amalgamating and looking at the supply base.

We've got clear line of sight to that now, and we'll begin to see some of that in the second half of the year. I think the majority of it comes in 2027.

It'll take us a little while to burn down some prior commitments both in the supply base and also in the customer arena. Also, all the work we said that we would do by way of building out some additional distribution programs for our own distribution arm rather than going through third-party distributors, that will progressively come on board during 2027.

We're doing it. Everything we thought that CAM would be for us is still in tact, and it looks good for us.

This quarter and for the majority of the year, we're going to see they were a 20% company, let's say we were a 30%, you blend them together and basically any increase we've done on our legacy business has offset that dilution. We're still doing a 30% Fasteners margin, but with the prospects hopefully of seeing some improvements on that as we get into 2027.

In earnings per share terms, these debts and servicing that will offset a lot of the earnings. You say you'd be pretty break-even-ish for this year, and again starting to see positive EPS effect in 2027 and beyond.

Peter Arment

Appreciate it. Thanks, John.

John Plant

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from John Godyn with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

John Godyn

Hey, guys. Hey, John.

Thanks for taking my question. John, I just wanted to follow up on free cash flow deployment and opportunities.

Obviously, you guys are executing a balanced approach. We saw the dividend go up, the buyback is going up, but just given the top-tier operational execution of the company, there seems to be an argument to continue leaning into M&A, and I wanted to take your temperature there and maybe just plug into your kind of vision and worldview.

Thanks.

John Plant

As you've seen, we did lean into a couple of acquisitions this year. I think the really good outcome is we've expanded the top line and bottom line of the company, and even with all of that, I'll say, use of cash flow to buy back stock and now increase the dividend, we see ourselves returning very close to the same leverage level that we had at the end of last year.

In one sense, that's really good and gives us that optionality going forward. What do I expect now looking into '27 and 2028?

I doubt we'll do much by way of change on the dividend in the next 12 months, given we've just increased it by a further 17% on top of the increase last year and the year before. I think that's settled for a period of time.

Then, going into 2027, certainly, my expectation is that we'd probably buy back more stock than we have in 2026. At the same time, I think we have a willingness to examine further M&A opportunities, and feel quite predisposed to doing it, albeit it would follow our MO of trying to buy what we think is a fundamentally quality company, and to see whether the combination with Howmet and that company can produce let's say some form of synergized benefits, one way or the other.

If you've taken my temperature is, yes, we're absolutely willing to consider further steps. Again, currently in that more bolt-on, we did let's call it a couple of billion dollars between the CAM and Böllhoff.

That sort of area. I'm not envisaging at this point anything mega large, we could have an epiphany, which I guess we'd signal, but at the moment we don't see that.

I think it's far better we just continue with our path of trying to build out a company with a high growth rate, a high margin, a good cash flow, and rinse and repeat.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session, as well as our conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect.