Paul Dunne
Good morning, everyone.
Alet Coetzee
Good morning.
Paul Dunne
Thank you for joining us for the Northam results presentation for the six months ended December 2025. I would like to welcome our Chairman, Mcebisi Jonas, our board members André, Emily, Geralda, Hester, Yoza, and Themba, some of whom are on the line.
At this point in time, I'd also like to express gratitude on behalf of the board for Mr. Glyn Lewis, who served as a non-executive director and retired at the AGM in November.
Of course, he also served as my predecessor for many years as CEO. We wish Glyn and his family happiness and health in his final retirement.
Welcome to everybody else on the lines, and a special welcome to those of you who managed to join us in person this morning. The presentation, together with our interim booklet containing detailed disclosure of the company's performance, is available on the website.
Thank you once again to Alet and Damian and the rest of the team who have prepared this very comprehensive document. A lot of work goes into it, I must say.
As always, we do like to describe the pictures on the slide. This is platinum gauze, which is used in numerous industrial, chemical, and medical applications.
This specific gauze is used to produce cardiac stents. The broadening market consensus is that supply and demand fundamentals will continue to support robust pricing for platinum.
This, together with our growth profile, places the group in a strategically strong position. Here is the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements that we may make today.
Please read it in your own time. Thank you.
As always, I'll review some of the key features of the period in which all of our mines have performed well. We've also continued to progress our project pipeline, in particular, the development of Eland, the three shaft project at Zondereinde, further upgrades to our metallurgical facilities, and the expansion of the Booysendal South tailings facility.
We've also made a meaningful step forward in reducing the group's carbon footprint. Alet will then take us through the financials, and finally, I will upgrade guidance for the full year.
This is a picture of the works at number three shaft, which will be operational, if all goes to plan, in April. The raisebore rig on the left of the shot has begun to ream our number four shaft, and this is the next component in realizing full value from the Western extension.
Incidentally, this is the largest machine of its kind in the world, and four shaft will be a record-breaking raisebore undertaking. Once again, we have posted record production and record sales volumes.
Significant appreciation in price for all of our metals led to a material increase in revenue to 23.3 billion rand. We maintain our internal focus and continue to place high emphasis on safe production and efficient, sustainable mining at the right cost.
We will accelerate all of our growth projects as far as we are able. The world needs PGMs, and primary supply continues to fall.
The benefit of our counter-cyclical investment strategy is becoming very evident. The board has declared a record interim dividend of 7 rand per share, indicating confidence in the market and the future of our company.
In this picture, we show the expanded chrome recovery circuit at Eland mine, which was commissioned in December. This will improve chrome yields from underground ore to at least 25%.
You can see the green tower at the top of the shot housing additional spirals and a second stacker pad on the left. Eland is coming to life, and you can see we do expect considerably more chrome output there into the future.
Eland contributed already in this past period 20% of our chrome sales. Moving on to the mining operations, and firstly, safety.
This remains a key focus area for the board and all the management teams. We pleased to report an overall improved performance.
The group remained fatality-free throughout the period, and Booysendal passed 12 million fatality-free shifts and remains fatality-free since inception. Zondereinde and Eland recorded 2 and 1 million fatality-free shifts during the period, and we continue to reduce the number of lost-time accidents.
We remain vigilant and engaged in all matters related to the health and safety of our employees, and we manage risk in a proactive and structured manner. If I can look at some of the operational metrics firstly at group level, square meters and tonnes mined increased at each of our operations.
Milled tonnage decreased as higher quality ROM displaced tailings treatment at Eland, with a consequent 3.7% increase in mined metal production. Total refined metal production increased by 15.5%, and strict cost control limited cash cost inflation to 7.2%, including for the ongoing ramp-up at Eland.
Improved pricing for all the metals led to a near doubling of the cash margin to 39%. Chrome production increased by 15%, with improved chrome yields and higher UG2 tonnages treated at both Booysendal and Eland.
Moving on to the individual mines one by one, and firstly, Zondereinde. Bedding down Merensky mining in the Western extension continues, whilst UG2 mining, which has predominantly been moved to the east, is benefiting from higher tonnage yields.
Increased milled tonnage led to an improved production of 170,000 4E ounces, and together with good cost control, limited the increase in unit cash costs to a creditable 5.5%. Chrome production of 240,000 tonnes at a yield of 38% is a very pleasing performance.
Capital expenditure was 1.1 billion rand and applied to work on number three shaft and the upgrades to the base metal refinery. Forecast capital for the full year is 3.2 billion rand, predominantly spent on number three and now number four shaft.
The completion of number three shaft in April will lead to improved Merensky grades and further productivity gains in the future. In addition, the reaming of number four shaft, which commenced during the period, will enable the realization of the full value of the Western extension, prolonging the life of Zondereinde well into the future and doing justice to its name.
For our international audience, Zondereinde means "without end". Moving on to Booysendal.
We continue to exceed steady-state volumes, and milled tonnage grew by 3%, whilst grades remained stable at 2.6 grams per tonne. The accumulation of run-of-mine ore remained at around a half a million tonnes, and work is progressing on the expansion of the South tailings dam.
This is the remaining bottleneck for an increase in the milling rate, and an 18-month construction program will now follow. Overall, metal production at Booysendal improved to over 260,000 ounces, limiting the increase in unit cash costs to 2.8%, which is an excellent performance.
Chrome production increased by 15% to 414,000 tonnes, with higher UG2 throughput and improving yields. Capital expenditure was 876 million rand, mostly sustaining and in line with our expected ongoing stay-in-business capital requirements.
Our forecast for the full financial year is 2 billion rand, mainly on machine replacement and the expansion of the South tailings dam. At Eland, the mining ramp-up continues.
We now have 47 production teams on the face, and this will eventually rise to 67 teams at steady state. Underground tonnage has increased on schedule, and grades and recoveries continue to improve as more run-of-mine is presented to the mill.
We produced just under 45,000 tonnes of—sorry, 45,000 ounces in concentrate, together with a further 26,000 ounces from third parties. Unit cash costs increased to 42,400 rand, driven by the crew build-up and an overall increase in complement.
Pretty much the full fixed cost is now in place at Eland. Eland is on track to exceed our forecast of 300,000 tonnes of chrome in 2026, once again underlying the quality of this orebody.
Multi-blast conditions following the successful vent changeover in June is allowing accelerated decline development, de-risking the remainder of the build-up schedule. We thought we'd put a photograph of the vent changeover equipment or the vent shaft equipment here so you can see what it looks like.
Again, Eland is coming to life. That's an upcast shaft and the respective ducting.
Quite a neat installation. Also thought we'd put a picture of the orebody, because this really is what it's all about.
We've shown you this picture before, and I think it's important enough to remind you of the quality of the orebody at Eland. This is, of course, UG2 reef, the dark central band that you can see in the shot.
Each square meter mined contains an ounce of PGM and around 2 tonnes of chrome, and these, together with the other key metrics highlighted on the slide, are crucial success factors to any mine. We continue to roll out our renewable energy program, and this picture shows our first 80 MW solar farm located adjacent to the Zondereinde metallurgical complex between Northam and Thabazimbi.
The site is extensive, for reference, equal to 160 rugby fields, and comprises 150,000 PV panels that track the sun to maximize solar irradiance. Construction is complete, and each year now this facility will produce 220,000 MWh of secure behind-the-meter electrical energy, reducing annual carbon emissions by 240,000 tonnes and reducing Zondereinde's energy costs by 15%.
This next picture shows the placing of the nacelle on one of the first towers at Klerebosch wind farm. The nacelle supports a 6.4 MW generator weighing 125 tonnes, and for scale, each tower is 120 meters high, and the turbine blades are 80 meters long.
The build program is progressing well, and we remain on track for commissioning in the first half of 2027. In addition, work has commenced on the Takado solar facility close to Klerksdorp, with commissioning also scheduled for 2027.
You can see the Vaal River, by the way, on the right of the shot there. Together, these three power plants will supply 900,000 MWh every year, or approximately 60% of all energy used at all of our operations, with a commensurate reduction in the group's carbon intensity.
In addition, we will shave around a billion rand per annum from our electricity bill, and there's more to come. We have initiated further projects at each of the mine sites, and will now progress these as owner-operated installations.
They include both solar and batteries, extending the solar benefit into the peak tariff periods, thereby maximizing energy savings. The required investment has been incorporated into our capital program for the coming years.
I'll now hand you over to Alet to take us through the financials.
Alet Coetzee
Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everybody.
At Northam, we are committed to the seven foundational measures defined by the Minerals Council, which seek to enhance the reputation and the development of women in the mining industry. 20% of our workforce are women, and many of them are employed at the rock face.
This is Lebohang Maruta, a recognized miner at Booysendal South mine. Providing Lebohang and her colleagues with a working environment where they are safe and supported and allowed to contribute to the success and growth of Northam is something that is very important to me, as well as the exco team.
As a company, we take a very strong stance against any form of gender-based violence that is so prevalent in South Africa. Looking at the key financial features for the period under review.
Despite the welcome uptick in metal prices, our operational focus remains firmly rooted in efficiencies, productivity, and cost control. In this regard, we have been assisted by our improved scale, flexibility, and ultimately, our business resilience.
Improvements in metal prices and higher sales led to a 60% increase in sales revenue to 23.3 billion rand, and an operating profit significantly improved from the previous comparable period. EBITDA was similarly affected, and this, together with our continuing investments in organic growth, led to an improvement of net debt to 2.6 billion rand.
Basic earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the period amounted to 20 rand and 15 rand, respectively. Looking now at revenue.
Revenue for the period was 23.3 billion rand. This is an 8.7 billion rand, or a 60%, increase on the previous corresponding period, which was the result of a material improvement in the average US dollar 4E basket price, together with a 13.7% growth in sales volumes, in line with our previous guidance, and despite a strengthening of the rand against the US dollar.
Continuing metal price appreciation during the period, in combination with our full-year guidance on sales volumes, bodes well for second-half revenue. The benefits of the full mine-to-market value chain for chrome is clear, as is that of the historically termed minor metals, iridium and ruthenium.
These together contributed 18.2%, or 4.2 billion rand, to our revenue. Looking now at cost of sales.
Sales revenue increased by 60%, while cost of sales increased by 29.4%. This led to a significant rise in our operating profit to 5.8 billion rand, at an operating margin of 25.1%.
Movements in the individual elements making up cost of sales include: mining operating cost increasing by 11%. This is attributable to an 8.9% increase in square meters mined, together with an average wage increase of approximately 6.5%.
Smelting and base metal removal plant cost increased by 19.8%, owing to increases in both tonnes smelted, as well as a 15.5% Eskom tariff hike. Royalty charges grew by 257% on the back of higher revenue and improved profitability.
Share-based payments increased from a low base to over 1.2 billion rand as a result of share price appreciation, whilst contributions to the Toro Employee Empowerment Trust and profit-share schemes benefited from growth in profits. The total cost of purchased concentrate and recycling material increased by 130% to 3.5 billion rand, due to metal price appreciation on higher volumes purchased.
Refining cost increased by 28.1% to 267.1 million rand, on the back of higher refined 6E volumes. Depreciation, based mainly on the units-of-production method, increased with the expanded capital base of the group.
Lastly, the change in metal inventory relates to an increase in the quantum and the cost of ounces capitalized to the balance sheet. Unit cash cost inflation needs to be considered in the context of our various major cost components.
Labor represents more than half of our operating cost, and utilities make up approximately 12%. We've had to absorb double-digit tariff increases for both electricity as well as water.
As Paul has mentioned, we are actively pursuing alternative energy initiatives to reduce high electricity cost, and we will start to see the real benefit of these in the coming financial year. Moving on to the income statement.
The group generated profit before tax of 9.1 billion rand, and accounts for a tax charge of 1.2 billion rand, inclusive of deferred tax, resulting in a profit for the period of 7.9 billion rand. Included in these amounts are a 2.5 billion rand reversal of a previously recognized impairment charge, and the recognition of a deferred tax asset of 1.4 billion rand, both relating to the Eland mine, and further demonstrating its inherent value.
In addition to the tax charge, the group paid 632 million rand in royalties. Moving on to working capital management.
By the end of December, total inventory had increased to just under 530,000 4E ounces, with a carrying value of 10.9 billion rand. After applying the basket price and exchange rate at the end of December, a sales value of around 25.4 billion rand, a significant asset on our balance sheet.
We expect to de-stock with the conclusion of various projects, including the freeing up of the Booysendal South concentrator through the expansion of the tailings dam, working through the furnace slag stockpile at the metallurgical complex, and processing excess UG2 from Zondereinde at the Eland concentrator. It is important to note that our inventory has not been sold forward, is not encumbered in any way, and should be considered in relation to the growth in our production profile.
Looking at the group's cash flow. Over the period, our cash balance increased by 2.3 billion rand.
The items impacting the movement in cash include our operations generating 6.6 billion rand and demonstrating the leverage embedded therein. Investing activities included 2.7 billion rand spent on capex, mainly in the execution of the group's growth strategy, building a sustainable business well into the future.
Financing activities included a dividend payment totaling 787 million rand. We also settled DMTNs and paid interest relating to our DMTN program.
These movements culminated in a cash balance at the period end of 9.3 billion rand. At the end of December, net debt totaled 2.6 billion rand.
Taking into account a 12-month rolling EBITDA of 10.6 billion rand, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio amounted to 0.24, well within our self-imposed target of 1:1. Despite the recent rally in metal prices, their volatility and that of our currency requires that we retain a prudent approach to liquidity management.
The increased banking facilities of 14.3 billion rand available to the group allows us this and remains fully undrawn. We believe in the special metals we produce and their critical importance to the world.
This has been a cornerstone of our strategy, informing our capital allocation since 2015. We have consistently invested in our company's growth and sustainability since then, and the benefits of this are evident in our results.
During the interim period, we have invested 2.8 billion rand in our operations, declared and paid almost 800 million rand relating to the final dividend for the previous financial year, and the board has now approved an all-time record dividend for the interim period of 7 rand per share, expressing confidence in our business and returning value to our shareholders equal to the capital investment made during the period. What has differentiated Northam over time is our continued investment throughout the cycle, delivering on our growth targets, and doing all of this via the debt market, without shareholder dilution.
This has allowed every Northam shareholder to benefit fully from our deliberate capital allocation strategy. This is evident from the investment and returns that we have delivered over the past 10 years.
Over this decade, we have invested 38.8 billion rand, and our share price has appreciated at a compounded growth rate of almost 30% per annum. We now need to consider the next step in our evolution, and the current metal price environment gives us an opportunity to do this.
We are busy reviewing our options and opportunities in this regard, and will update the market in due course. I will now hand you back to Paul to take us through the operational guidance.
Thanks, Aletta.
Paul Dunne
This photograph is illustrative to show the expanded footprint of the proposed Booysendal South tailings dam, which will provide a full life-of-mine solution. Just to try and contextualize the difficulty of the project, permitting took over three years.
Due to regulatory requirements, capex will amount to almost 1 billion rand. I mentioned earlier, an 18-month construction phase will now follow.
This is the final piece of the Booysendal puzzle. In line with our growth profile, our current year guidance is adjusted as follows: PGM production from own operation and unit cash costs remain unchanged.
Third-party metal purchases are now expected to increase to 150,000 ounces, and our sales number is upgraded to 1,070,000 ounces. Chrome sales will exceed top end of guidance.
Given the current price environment, it is in the company's best interest to push forward with our capital program and get the work done. This includes Eland, the three shaft project, but now also includes for number four shaft, as well as Damian's renewable energy program.
To this end, we've revised the full year's capital forecast to 6.6 billion rand. The period witnessed a considerable price correction, averaging 45,000 rand per 4E ounce for the six months.
For reference, today spot is sitting around 61,000 rand per 4E ounce. You can do a cigarette box calculation on that number.
This clearly bodes well for the second half. Today, I would like to discuss the markets in some detail, perhaps more so than we normally do.
PGM prices have risen dramatically due to continued tightness in the physical market. This tightness has continued into 2026, as evidenced by persistent high lease rates for platinum, palladium, and rhodium.
Let's look at the individual metals one at a time. Our view is that the platinum market is in a large fundamental deficit before investment, and this will continue to support higher price levels.
Primary supply will continue to fall over the next decade, despite higher basket prices achieved. Projects announced and in ramp-up will not be able to offset declining production from the older sections of the Bushveld.
The incentive to recycle more metal is boosted by current prices. However, the car park does not hold a large reservoir of available platinum, since this metal was not extensively used in gasoline cars pretty much for the last 10 to 15 years, having been substituted by, to a large extent, palladium.
Platinum's industrial applications are diverse, and we are encouraged by recent developments in the hydrogen economy, particularly in China, where it is now firmly embedded in central government's plans for the next 15 years. Overall, we see the platinum market in a persistent, fundamental 10% deficit.
Demand for palladium has remained strong. Cars using catalysts grew in 2025, supported by technologies such as hybridization and range extenders.
Recent pronouncements by European legislators, as well as changes in policy in the USA, will mean internal combustion engines will remain part of the drivetrain into the future. Car companies are now rethinking earlier strategies that promoted batteries over ICE.
Many automakers have had to write down substantial losses related to electrification, and new management teams have been tasked with finding more customer-focused solutions. Most automotive commentators still forecast growth in BEVs, but earlier penetration rates are now being toned down to more realistic levels.
Primary supply from South Africa will continue to fall over the next decade, compounded by cuts and closures in North American mines, and Russian supply is also forecast lower for 2026. Recycling margins will be boosted by current PGM prices.
We have not, except for a quick blip in January, seen this translating into more cans arriving at recycling yards. Working capital constraints, higher interest rates, and persistently high inflation continue to put downward pressure on recycling volumes.
We believe the palladium market has moved from balance to deficit, and now expect a better price performance compared to our earlier view. As with platinum, rhodium has a growing supply deficit.
Globally, rhodium is mainly sourced from the mining of UG2 in South Africa. These mines are, some of them at least, are amongst the oldest in the sector, and future depletion will impact rhodium much more so than that for platinum and palladium.
Recycled rhodium is absolutely critical to balance this market. Reduced recycling rates can be expected against lower historical loadings.
Evidence suggests that recycled numbers will continue to disappoint in 2026. In contrast, we highlight strong and resilient demand from autocatalysis.
We anticipate that NOx legislation will tighten in some regions of the world, and this will lead to a commensurate increase in loadings, particularly in China. Industrial demand will be further buoyed by fiberglass manufacturers moving back to higher rhodium loadings in higher quality fiberglass applications.
Ultimately, our estimates suggest a fundamental and persistent market deficit of at least 10%. In summary, we continue to believe that solid market fundamentals remain in place for pretty much all the metals that we produce.
In addition, the need to secure critical metals is a developing theme across the world that may result in even further tightening of liquidity. We are more positive on palladium, with it becoming clear that the electrification of the light-duty drivetrain has been overstated in the past.
Ruthenium, not always realized, is our third-largest PGM by volume, and we produce at Northam 15% of global supply. Its demand grew strongly over the last couple of years on the back of the nylon industry.
Also, artificial intelligence, social media, and a myriad of electronic consumer devices continue to generate large volumes of data that require some form of storage. Data storage requires ruthenium for hard disks.
The ruthenium market is in a substantial primary deficit, and stock sales may be insufficient to bring the market back into balance anytime soon. The ruthenium price should do well from here.
Iridium will and is benefiting from the renewed commitment of China to expand the green hydrogen economy. Global demand for stainless steel, together with Chinese ferrochrome industry dynamics, is supporting UG2 chrome concentrate pricing, today just around $300 per tonne CIF.
Recent developments in Indonesia are also supportive of a higher nickel price in the future. On this basis, our view is very positive for the metals that make up 98% of our revenue.
Over the coming 12 months, Northam will remain internally focused as we approach our historic aspirational target. Additional optionality for growth will be considered as we obtain further market confirmation.
We will also pursue our alternative energy strategy in an aggressive manner in order to mitigate the twin challenges of decarbonization and the electricity price escalation that we are experiencing in South Africa. More legwork is required to fully understand the potential of the recycling market against a significantly lower primary supply projected for 2035.
We also need to travel more extensively in China as the hydrogen economy emerges. I believe the world has moved from overestimating hydrogen to now underestimating current developments.
A bit of excitement is now warranted. Thank you, everybody.
Before we go to questions, this is a view of the recently commissioned ore stacker reclaimer at Booysendal South mine. You can see the lighter Merensky ore and the darker UG2 ore on the pad, and the segregation of ores allows control of the blend to the mill, which will improve both plant throughput as well as overall PGM and chrome recovery.
Ladies and gentlemen, our company is in a very competitive and strategically strong position. Internally, the company remains in a very good state of health, with a fantastic team, quality operations, a growth path, and the financial backbone of a strong balance sheet and cash position.
This enables sustainable operations for far into the future. That concludes the formal part of the presentation for today.
I hope you found it informative, and we can now move on to the Q&A. If we can start in the room perhaps, followed by the phone lines at the back, and then Damian at the front will help us with the webcast.
If I could politely please request that do introduce yourself when you receive the microphone or when you are called upon, and let us know which organization you represent before you ask a question. Thank you.
Christopher Nicholson
Morning, Paul and Alet. It's Christopher Nicholson from RMB Morgan Stanley, and thank you very much, as usual, for a very thoughtful presentation.
I really enjoyed that. Could I ask about the capex plans?
Obviously, one of the big changes from when you last chatted to us is you are accelerating your capex plan, and I think it's understandable in to this price environment. Zondereinde, now 3.2 billion rand a year.
How long are you going to need to continue to run at that run rate to support the mine's kind of 350,000 ounce profile? Then the second one, I think I understand what's happening in the tailings at Booysendal, but at Eland, the self-build on the renewables, why are you going for that rather than an IPP as you have with the other projects?
Thanks.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, Chris. At Zondereinde, the difference in capex is essentially four shaft, frankly.
What we've agreed to so far at board level is we will progress four shaft by reaming and creating the hole, which will give the company an option, not to maintain a 350, but actually to grow production above that point. The reaming, we've completed the pilot hole, which is around about, I think, if I remember correctly, a 280 pilot hole.
That was done during the course of the year. That's quite critical, because it's technically challenging.
It must be straight, because it's a hoisting shaft, cannot be a banana. That was done, and we've now given the go-ahead to ream the hole.
Damian, is it 5.5 meters? We will ream this one, which is quite big for a raisebore effort, and it's also from below 1,400 meters, it's also a long hole.
It would, as I said in the commentary, be a world record in that sense. That is technically challenging.
Will take around, if it goes very, very well, 18 months to make that hole. If we struggle a little bit, because you can have intersections of geology and water, it can be even two years.
I'm not saying it will be, Damian, please don't quote me on that one, but it's not always absolutely straightforward, as many things in mining. What we have allocated is 500 million additional capex to do that job.
Then in 18 months to two years' time, the company will have the option to proceed with the development of that shaft, which would be an ore hoisting shaft, which will enable increased production. I know you're going to ask me how much, Chris, but we're not in a position to give you that just yet.
I've got no doubt that the ultimate profile of Zondereinde will start with a four if four shaft is if we take that option in around about 18 months to two years' time. Not only does it secure the life of mine, but it also allows for a increased level of production out of that orebody.
It's a very large orebody, and it's a wonderful piece of orebody from a geological point of view. There are very few of these near-vertical, faulted dykes that historically Zondereinde has experienced.
In fact, that block of ground is clean. We're very excited.
We like what we see. We're already mining in the early bits of that block already below three shaft, and four shaft gives us option.
I think Alet mentioned we're considering our optionality for the future, and certainly four shaft represents one of those options, yeah. The IPP question and why self-build, the recent pricing environment in particular for batteries has given us, if I can say, very bluntly, a three-year payback.
It's very, very attractive. The reason we want to self-build it and have it under our absolute control is because in this case, when you introduce batteries, what we're actually doing is targeting the peak electricity schedule across the day, the tariff.
You will know, I'll give you a nice fact, actually, 40% of the electricity bill is priced against only 14% of the kilowatt hours, reflecting the double peak in the Megaflex tariff that Eskom put forward. If we can store energy through PV and release into those peaks, you can have quite a dramatic effect on the electricity bill.
We think those projects are very, very attractive. Of course, we've got more liquidity now to be able to do it on-balance sheet as opposed to off-balance sheet.
We don't have any leakage of value in that sense. It's not that we won't continue with the IPPs, of course we will, but they'll be supplemented by these own builds.
We've also allocated a half a billion for that effort, and predominantly this year, it will be to purchase industrial batteries that go with it. Thanks.
Gerhard Engelbrecht
Gerhard Engelbrecht, Absa CIB. Paul, I want to explore labor costs a little bit.
Maybe if you can talk about your labor agreement, is it linked to CPI? We're targeting 3% CPI in the country now, but with how profits have evolved, not quite sure that that is what the labor force is going to be happy with.
What is your agreement, and how do you see labor costs evolving maybe beyond that agreement?
Paul Dunne
Thanks, Gerhard, and good morning. We have five-year agreements in place for all three main mines.
At Zondereinde and Eland, that five years will come to a conclusion in June this year, and Booysendal is a couple of years out. We sort of staggered a little bit on a 50-50 basis if you look at the ounce production from the three mines.
I agree with you, our negotiating stance going into negotiations will always refer to CPI, but one must always consider what the basket price for the employee is as well as CPI. Our basket price at employee level does get dominated by food, education expenses, and travel or transport costs.
It's not quite CPI. If we are using a mining term, hard-assed at CPI, we will not settle.
I think let me put it as blunt as that. One has to realize what the employee experiences, and we will be negotiating in a sensible fashion to repeat a further five-year agreement if we possibly can with the counterparty at Eland and Zondereinde.
By the way, it's the NUM, and at Booysendal, it's AMCU, just to give you some backdrop there.
Gerhard Engelbrecht
Labor costs well ahead of CPI?
Paul Dunne
Hopefully not well ahead, but one mustn't expect CPI, Gerhard. Let's be honest and fair.
It's not a good idea to impoverish the workforce.
Gerhard Engelbrecht
Sure.
Paul Dunne
Yeah.
Arnold van Graan
Hi, Paul. It's Arnold van Graan from Nedbank.
On your optionality that you're putting in at Zondereinde, what are you tracking to pull the trigger? Is it metal prices at a certain level for a certain period, or what else are you looking at?
You talk about hydrogen, that seems to be quite positive, but what will drive that decision other than the basket price at a certain level, or is it just the basket price?
Paul Dunne
I think, Arnold, already effectively we've took a decision to create the option in the first instance. In other words, to make the hole in the ground.
That, fortunately, does take a little time in the sense that you have chance to assess and get confirmation from the market. I think over the course of 18 months to two years, we will get that confirmation or not, but at the end of the day, the company will have what I would consider an extremely cheap option from having in the meantime created that hole in the ground.
That's the way we're thinking about it. We have a fairly straightforward technical ability to increase processing capacity, and that would, of course, go with a four shaft decision, yes or no.
Just to repeat on that quickly, mining first, metallurgy second. No good building metallurgical kit if you can't fill it.
The mining decision takes priority over a metallurgical decision, and that's no detriment to metallurgists, just as important at the end of the day, but from a risk point of view, mining risk is far higher than metallurgical risk. We work on the shaft first, create our option, yes or no to the option in a couple years' time.
If we do go, we will increase the size of the kit at Zondereinde. Just maybe the question will come later, but let me preempt it.
We do have very straightforward technical ability to increase metallurgical capacity to about 1.1 1.5 million ounces, yeah, 4E.
Arnold van Graan
A quick follow-up on that. There's obviously then some metal lock-up potentially on the back of that.
Do you consider that metal lock-up or mismatch between mining volumes and plant volumes in that investment decision? Do you understand what I'm saying?
Because you're going to be overmining and you can't process,
Paul Dunne
and
Arnold van Graan
you've basically had that challenge for some time, which does impact the economics. Just how do you think about that?
It's a good problem to have, very good problem,
Paul Dunne
but
Arnold van Graan
it still got a financial impact. Thanks.
Paul Dunne
I could say a lot about that and perhaps we probably haven't got enough time, but remember we have ramped up the size of this business four times in essence, from below a 300,000 ounce producer, our guidance now is 1070, it's at least triple, approaching four times run rate. When you do that, you increase your working capital.
It's absolutely natural in any business, and it must be funded. Of course, at Northam, as Aletta points out, it has been funded.
That working pipeline, that pipeline that you see there on the books at 10 point something, in real life at 25 billion rand, has been paid for. One must always remember it's also liquid.
Can be realized if we so choose, because you can sell it. You sell it forward, you take a bit of a discount, you can bring cash back to the balance sheet.
We don't believe that's in the best interest of the company, but you do fund the pipeline on the one hand, but it is realizable if you so choose. A number of companies, a very good example which is not related to PGM, I can talk about it, you will have seen BHP Billiton has just liquidated or brought forward the value of the silver through a streaming agreement.
These things can be done. That is a proper asset that you as an analyst, you should value as a liquid asset.
It's almost cash, actually, with a bit of a discount.
Katlego Mathonsi
Good morning, Katlego Mathonsi, Investec Bank. Done on a very solid first half of the year, especially on safety as well.
Zero fatality is not a small feat. Maybe I'll start with a follow-up question on Zondereinde number four shaft, and I'll ask on the metallurgy side of things.
By how much can you increase throughput at Zondereinde before you need to actually increase the capacity on the concentrators? Is the number starting with a four supported by the current infrastructure as far as concentrators is concerned?
Then also on your third-party volume, which has increased to 150,000 ounces guidance for this year, if you can give us a little bit of color as to how much of the Ivanplat phase one is in that number, if any. Then I also wanted to ask about ruthenium and the very tight market.
Are you not worried about demand destruction? Are you seeing anything right now in development that maybe suggest that if there is demand destruction, it will still be within the PGM metals?
Thank you.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, Katlego. Appreciate the comments, in particular about safety for the team.
Thanks very much. You are quite right.
If we were to increase production on the UG2 mill at Zondereinde, we would exceed capacity. In fact, we've already exceeding the UG2 mill capacity at Zondereinde, and the excess volume that we are even currently mining is being milled at Eland starting January this year.
There's 100,000 tonnes already been moved across to Eland for processing. Fortunately, the Eland is a really big mill, and the transport costs in doing that is a fraction of the value of the metal in the ore, it's a good option.
In essence, you are quite right. If we take those sort of decisions, we would have to expand metallurgy.
Again, I must stress, mine first, we're very hard on that point, metallurgy second. You can build metallurgy within two years or three years at the outside to match mining output, but never do it in advance.
It's not wise. On the ruthenium side, we agree that the imbalance in the market is going to present problems to the customers, in our view clearly.
The industrial misbalance at fundamental level has been in play for quite a while now, a year or two, and it's so far been filled by vaulted historical stocks. The industry could not sell ruthenium historically, and in some cases, individual new vaults were built to house the ruthenium.
It was stockpiled. I do not know how much stockpile is left vaulted in the broader industry.
We don't know, but we are guessing, given the rate of depletion against that fundamental industrial balance, that there can't be much left. When that tightness hits the price, then price has to move if you still want the metal.
Of course, that does put pressure on customers, I've got no doubt, and may lead to some demand destruction in the weaker hands of the industrial mix.
David Roche-Kelly
Good morning, David Roche-Kelly from Phoenix Research. Congratulations on across the board wonderful results, from mining operations to metallurgy, and of course, to the finances.
I would, if I could, just go back to the safety numbers again. Booysendal at 12 12 million fatality-free shifts, phenomenal, absolutely phenomenal.
All the other operations fatality-free. Also the various measures of injury rates going down also across the board.
If I could address you in your other role, if I may, as the President of the Minerals Council of South Africa, to say congratulations to you and your peers in platinum and elsewhere for that long, long decline in injury rates. The number I saw in your report, 20 two decades of steady work.
Prices come and go, they go up, they go down, but to achieve these sort of safety results is quite phenomenal. An extra congratulations there to you and all your colleagues in the industry.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, David. I'll pass that on.
Let's go to the telephone lines. We can always come back if there's a further hand in the room, just for the sake of time, if we can start with the telephone lines first.
Operator
Thank you, sir. For those on the conference, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now.
The first question we have comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG. Please go ahead.
Adrian Hammond
Thanks, operator. Good morning, Paul and Alet.
Paul, firstly, your accelerated capex plans, does that mean that you achieve 1 million ounce target sooner than anticipated? Perhaps you can just explore or or clarify the three shaft at Zondereinde gives you 50,000 ounces on top of your current profile guidance, does that mean next year we should expect 380 to 390 at Zondereinde?
Then, secondly, your basket price slide was certainly illustrating that your your basket price for Northam is materially higher than the average for the Western Limb. I assume that this obviously certainly a drive there towards certain metals, but are you able to give us sort of a comparison between your average prill over the last few years to what it is now and where it's going, and certainly with in mind that you're mining more UG2?
Then for Alet, just the non-current inventory of 103,000 ounces, could you just break us breakdown where that each sits at your operations and the timeline to unwind that, please? Thanks.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, Adrian. You're a bit quick on the Zondereinde target there.
I would push in 340 to 350 for Zondereinde for next year, bearing in mind the shaft only commissions in April, and a lot of things still happen in terms of sequencing people level by level down through chairlifts, backfill, ventilation, and all sorts of other things, it's a gradual process, not a step change, but pencil in 340-350 for Zondereinde for next year. On the prill split and the way you're talking, and the best way to think about it, you're quite right, we do have a very strong basket price on a relative basis, and that stems from the fact that we're a very dominant UG2 producer.
In a very broad brush, UG2 revenue is about 30% higher than Merensky revenue at the moment, and that's driven by the base metal difference in UG2, a lot of chrome. Chrome is priced very strong, whereas perhaps nickel is weak at this stage, and nickel, of course, comes from Merensky.
On the base metal side, chrome is doing better than nickel. Then, if I can say, the sexy metals of ruthenium and iridium and rhodium all come from UG2.
They're already performing well, and we think they will perform well very well into the future. It is about the metal split, as you point out, I just want to make sure the audience knows that ruthenium, iridium, and rhodium, which are pricing stronger and should get even stronger, come from the UG2 ore mix.
Our growth profile and the baseload at Northam is predominantly UG2. Alet, would you take the last question?
Alet Coetzee
In terms of non-current inventory, it's just over 100,000 ounces. 70% of that relates to recycling material, as well as slag, which will take about three years to process.
Then 20% relates to Booysendal South material, and as Paul has mentioned, that is an 18-month build program. Then the remaining balance is sort of odds and sots, which we refer to as sticky stock, which will be able to treat in the next 24 months.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, Alet. I think the important realization on stock releases, it's got actually nothing to do with the smelter.
Most of this stock is not hit the furnace yet. It's either before one of the concentrators or before the slag plant mill itself.
That's where the non-current inventory, as Alet That's anything that can't be treated in 12 months, by the way, that's that definition for those who may not know. It's not a smelting issue, it's milling effectively, and the pace at which we can mill it in to the circuit.
Thanks, Adrian. I hope we've answered your questions.
We can move on.
Adrian Hammond
Thanks.
Operator
The next question we have comes from René Hochreiter of NOAH Capital. Please go ahead.
René Hochreiter
Hello, Paul and team. Great results, well done.
Could I just ask about your third-party capacity? You say 150,000 ounces is what you're doing third-party this year.
Is that your capacity now? Is that capacity full, your third-party capacity?
Paul Dunne
The current capacity is about 1.2, and we'll refine about 1070 this year, to give you an idea of the headroom. Inside the 107, there'll be about 100 and something of third party, as you point out.
There's still a little bit of headroom, but it's tight, René. We haven't got endless capacity.
Just to expand on the question, it's a specific type of capacity, in that we are very UG2-dominant. Therefore, our capacity is base metal light capacity.
Not all orebodies are the same, we have more capacity for UGs and MGs and LGs, and less capacity for Merensky and Northern Limb. That's a nice way of saying it.
René Hochreiter
You're still doing about 100,000 ounces of Ivanplats?
Paul Dunne
We are contracted for the first 100 in phase one. Just to pick up on Kathego's last question, which I didn't answer, I do remember now, if you don't mind, Kathego, I won't say what the percentage is.
I think we will refer it back to the customer, but they are delivering. That is true.
Not yet at 100, René, as you point out, but our contract is ultimately for 100 phase one. I do believe they will get the 100.
Okay.
René Hochreiter
Just on Eland, if I may ask, the grade, unless I'm mistaken, I saw the grade going up 52%, but also the costs going up 20%. Could you make a comment on that?
Paul Dunne
Yep, sure. The grade is very straightforward reflection.
We're now beginning to mine from underground, we're seeing underground grades, in other words, stoping grade. Prior to this, we've been doing a lot of tailings treatment, which is sub-1 gram.
On a weighted average basis, we now getting more of the good stuff, if I can put it that way. On the cost side, ramping up a mine, you must put the cost in first.
The cost doesn't come second, unfortunately. When you create a mine like Eland, the base load of the cost goes in, and then the ramp-up slowly follows.
In time to come, we'll get the benefit of the full ramp-up. As we are at the moment, the full management team is in there, the full overhead structure is in there.
The only thing that's missing in terms of cost is the very variable cost associated with those next 20 teams that must still be employed to take us from 47 to 67 at full production. It's sort of a variable cost equation from here.
René Hochreiter
Great. Thanks.
Also, your US recycling, it's about 14% negative EBITDA margin. Are you going to carry on with that?
Paul Dunne
We will carry on, but it's a very low volume, René. We're struggling to get business at the right margin there.
We will not write business which doesn't secure a proper risk-adjusted margin. As you heard me say earlier, times are tough in the recycling industry.
It's not yet recovered to pre-COVID levels. I'm referring to 2019.
We have a broad estimate that recycling is tens of percents lower still compared to 2019 across the world, we're struggling to get business. I do want to point out
René Hochreiter
that,
Paul Dunne
although it's a small operating loss, it is a very small operating loss, the value of the property is extensive.
René Hochreiter
Yes, no, I saw that. One last question, please.
What's your best-performing PGM metal for the year?
Paul Dunne
Rhodium.
René Hochreiter
Good, thank you. Thank you very much to Leon.
I believe he's retiring. Thanks for all the help that he's given me in the past.
Thanks, Leon.
Paul Dunne
He's retiring, but we've retained him, René, just before everybody gets excited, he's not going too far. Thanks, René.
René Hochreiter
Thanks. Thanks very much.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, René. Bye.
Are we done?
Operator
At this stage, there are no further questions on the conference.
Paul Dunne
Thanks, ma'am. Damian, over to you.
Damian Stephen Smith
Can you hear me now? There's a couple of questions from the webcast.
First question from Thokozani Muchehiwa, this regarding inventory drawdown, you've already answered that to Aletta. Then there are two questions from Shashi Shekar at Citibank.
Thanks for the presentation. What is the normalized level of cash you want to keep on your balance sheet?
Paul Dunne
I think we can answer that one very straightforward. We're not unhappy with a small negative debt position, running the balance sheet in that nature.
I think that is a fair, broad assessment of the board's opinion. We do have discussions on this point quite a bit, we're not unhappy to be slightly negative.
You must put that into context of the huge, near-cash asset that we're sitting on in terms of the inventory.
Damian Stephen Smith
Last question: growth capex post FY '26 remaining for Eland till steady state in '29?
Alet Coetzee
We've done most of the heavy lifting, probably less than 1 billion rand. Thereafter, it will relate to sustaining capex, TM3 equipment, and etc.
Paul Dunne
It's interesting to note that Eland paid its first accounting tax, am I right in saying that?
Alet Coetzee
Absolutely.
Paul Dunne
First accounting tax this time around, so that's a start. Yeah.
Thanks, Damian. It looks like we're done with the questions, and I can't see any more hands in the room.
Once again, from Alet and I and the board members, thanks for attending in person and to those of you on the lines, and we'll see you in the foyer for a cup of tea and a sandwich. Thanks very much, everybody.
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