Operator
Good morning, and welcome to ONEOK's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.
After the speakers' opening remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press *, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad.
If you would like to withdraw your question, please press *2 on your telephone keypad. With that, it is my pleasure to turn the program over to Megan Patterson, Vice President, Investor Relations.
You may now begin.
Megan Patterson
Thank you, Angela. Welcome to ONEOK's first quarter 2026 earnings call.
We issued our earnings release and presentation after the markets closed yesterday, and those materials are available on our website. After our prepared remarks, management will be available to take your questions.
Statements made during this call that might include ONEOK's expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the safe harbor provision of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements.
For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Pierce Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Pierce H. Norton II
Thank you, Megan, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Joining me on the call are Walt Hulse, Chief Financial Officer; Randy Lentz, Chief Operating Officer; and Sheridan Swords, our Chief Commercial Officer.
Yesterday, we reported first quarter earnings and raised our 2026 financial guidance, reflecting strong performance and building momentum. Before we get into the quarter, I'd like to take a step back and frame the environment we're operating in and how we think about ONEOK's role within it.
Energy markets remain dynamic, but long-term fundamentals are strong. It remains clear that the U.S.
energy infrastructure is essential for economic growth, industrial competitiveness, power demand, and global energy security. Midstream's role is simple.
We connect supply and demand safely and efficiently across cycles, not around them. That's where ONEOK differentiates itself.
We built a regionally diversified, integrated platform at scale across natural gas liquids, natural gas, crude oil, and refined products, anchored by an innovative employee base, the interconnectivity of our assets, customer relationships, and a predominantly fee-based model. Our systems sit in and around some of the most resilient basins and durable demand centers, including power generation, industrial demand, and export markets.
As we look to the remainder of 2026, our high-level priorities remain consistent: operate safely and reliably, execute our capital growth program with discipline, maintain balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, and leverage our integrated asset advantage and strong customer relationships to continue driving volume growth across all of our systems. These priorities are grounded in what we see across the U.S.
energy landscape, where long-term demand remains constructive both domestically and globally. U.S.
natural gas demand is growing across power generation for emerging data center demand, industrial activity, and liquefied natural gas exports. LNG export capacity alone is projected to more than double over the next decade, reinforcing the durable global call on U.S.
energy and natural gas infrastructure. 65% of U.S.
natural gas production contains recoverable natural gas liquids. That means the infrastructure to handle natural gas liquids must be addressed alongside natural gas.
This requires full value chain infrastructure and continued investments in natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and refined product assets by companies like ONEOK. At the same time, NGL demand remains strong globally, driven by petrochemical and international markets, with U.S.
supply playing an increasingly critical role. Finally, the resilience and innovation of the U.S.
energy industry continues to stand out through consistent efficiency gains and reliable results. Recent global events have only reinforced the importance of secure, resilient energy supply and the critical role U.S.
energy plays in providing it. The world has seen that the most expensive energy is the energy that does not show up.
As global demand continues to grow, infrastructure, not supply, is the constraint. That is exactly where ONEOK is positioned: providing scalable, strategically located infrastructure with capacity and the ability to respond to evolving demand dynamics.
I'll now turn the call over to Walt Hulse for our financial update.
Walter S. Hulse III
Thank you, Pierce. As Pierce mentioned, we are increasing our 2026 financial guidance, reflecting the strong performance we delivered in the first quarter across ONEOK's integrated systems and our higher expectations for the remainder of the year.
We now expect 2026 net income to increase to a midpoint of approximately $3.5 billion, with diluted earnings per share increasing to a midpoint of $5.53. We are also increasing our adjusted EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $8.25 billion.
These updates reflect strong underlying business segment performance as well as increased opportunities across our system, driven in part by a more constructive market environment that developed late in the first quarter. As we move into the back half of the year, the combination of higher volumes, completed projects, and market tailwinds should be reflected more clearly in our results for the balance of this year and into 2027.
Our total 2026 capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion. Turning to the first quarter performance, ONEOK reported net income of $776 million or $1.23 per diluted share, a 12% increase compared with the first quarter of 2025.
Results included a non-cash impairment of $60 million or 7 cents per diluted share after tax related to our Powder Springs Logistics joint venture in the refined products and crude segment. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter totaled approximately $2 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase driven by higher volumes and strong segment-level performance.
As market conditions strengthened toward the end of the quarter, we also saw additional opportunities across our system. We continue to expect the first quarter to be our lowest EBITDA quarter of the year, consistent with our typical annual cadence and seasonal dynamics.
Importantly, our balance sheet and capital framework remain strong. We continue to prioritize financial flexibility while investing in the business and returning capital to shareholders.
In April, we redeemed nearly $500 million of outstanding notes due July 2026, and we entered into a $1.2 billion term loan, further enhancing balance sheet flexibility in a rapidly changing market. Our results reflect the same themes that underpin our strategy: a high quality, largely fee-based earnings mix, strong performance across our integrated systems, and disciplined cost and capital management.
Our increased financial guidance reflects both this consistent execution year-to-date and improving market dynamics. I'll turn it over to Randy for an operational and large capital projects update.
Randy N. Lentz
Thank you, Walt. From an operational standpoint, our focus remains on safe and reliable performance across our integrated assets.
Our teams continue to execute well across all four business segments, managing normal seasonality and weather-related impacts. The scale and diversity of our systems allow us to absorb those seasonal dynamics while continuing to provide reliable service to our customers.
Winter Storm Fern created temporary wellhead freeze-offs that briefly reduced throughput, but as a reminder, there were no material downtime on our assets, and those impacts were already reflected in our original 2026 guidance. Turning to capital projects, we've made strong progress so far this year.
In the first quarter, we completed the relocation of our 150 million cubic feet per day Shadowfax natural gas processing plant from North Texas to the Midland Basin. We expect a steady ramp-up of volumes as producer activity remains solid in the area.
We're also on track to complete expansions of our Delaware Basin processing assets in the third quarter, increasing our capacity in the basin by 110 million cubic feet per day, in addition to our 300 million cubic feet per day Bighorn processing plant that remains on schedule for completion in mid-2027. In the Powder River Basin, we're on track to complete construction of our 60 million cubic feet per day Cutter plant in the fourth quarter of 2026.
This plant will increase our processing capacity in the Powder River to more than 100 million cubic feet per day. We expect capacity to fill quickly from wells already drilled and expected to be drilled by our 50% JV partner in the plant.
Across other segments, our Denver area refined products pipeline expansion will add 35,000 barrels per day of capacity when it enters service mid-year, and phase one of our Medford NGL fractionator will add 100,000 barrels per day of Mid-Continent fractionation capacity in the fourth quarter. These projects remain on schedule and are positioned to deliver meaningful near-term benefits by improving reliability, expanding connectivity, and increasing optionality, while also creating long-term, durable value across our footprint.
I'll now turn it over to Sheridan for a commercial update.
Sheridan Swords
Thank you, Randy. Commercially, we continue to see active engagement across our asset portfolio.
Demand is supported by downstream pull, particularly from power generation, industrial and petrochemical demand, and export-linked markets. These dynamics reinforce the importance of strategically located infrastructure and long-term relationships.
Looking at the first quarter, we delivered strong year-over-year volume performance across our assets despite typically seasonal headwinds. Starting with the natural gas liquid segment, performance was led by broad-based volume growth across all three of our core regions.
In the Rocky Mountain region, NGL volumes increased 11% year-over-year, driven by higher base volume and increased ethane recovery. In the Mid-Continent, volumes increased 4% year-over-year, driven entirely by C3+ volume, even as the region experienced some temporary impacts from Winter Storm Fern earlier in the quarter.
In the Gulf Coast/Permian region, volumes increased more than 30% year-over-year, primarily reflecting base volume growth from newly connected third-party plants that were delayed last year, as well as higher short-term volume opportunities. From a global perspective, NGL demand remains structurally strong, and recent geopolitical dynamics have further reinforced the attractiveness of U.S.
supply. We've seen requests for capacity on our announced LPG export dock were already increasing and have accelerated more recently as customers look to diversify supply toward the U.S.
Turning to the refined products and crude segment, year-over-year refined products volumes increased 12%, supported by strong gasoline and diesel demand, refinery maintenance dynamics, favorable regional basis differentials, and wide crack spreads that drove strong refinery utilization. Blending volumes were also strong during the quarter.
We entered the spring blending season significantly hedged, which limited our exposure to widening RBOB to butane spreads. Historically wide basis differentials between New York Harbor, where we hedge, and the Mid-Continent, where we sell product, also impacted realized margins.
Looking ahead, we've secured additional hedges on fall volumes at higher prices and extended new hedges into spring 2027. Importantly, blending volumes continue to be driven primarily by system throughput rather than EPA RVP waivers, which typically create only modest incremental opportunities.
Increased gasoline throughput and completed synergy projects provide a much greater benefit, allowing us to optimize blending activity across our system. More broadly, the reach and flexibility of our refined products systems remain a key advantage.
We are the only refined products pipeline system with bidirectional access between the Mid-Continent and the Gulf Coast, which allows us to attract incremental volume and respond to changing market conditions. Demand fundamentals remain strong.
We continue to see very strong diesel demand across our system, which we expect to remain as we move into spring agricultural season. We also anticipate a robust summer travel season, supporting gasoline demand across our footprint.
Additionally, if jet fuel supply remains constrained for an extended period, we could see incremental demand for gasoline. Refined products and crude exports have increased in recent months amid global supply tightness, particularly related to diesel, and we are well-positioned with dock capacity across multiple Gulf Coast marine facilities.
Crude dock utilization remained robust at our highly contracted Seabrook joint venture, and we are in discussions to extend our expiring capacity at favorable rates. Finally, higher-margin Permian crude oil gathering volumes increased compared with the fourth quarter, as activity in the basin remains favorable but disciplined.
Moving to the natural gas gathering and processing segment, we delivered strong year-over-year volume growth, led by the Mid-Continent, where volumes increased 7%. Mid-Continent producers continue to focus activity across both gas-focused and liquid-rich plays, and we have 11 rigs currently operating across our more than 1 million dedicated acres in this region.
In the Rocky Mountain region, processed volumes increased year-over-year even with winter weather and heater-treater impacts. As operating conditions normalize, we expect volumes to strengthen in the second and third quarters.
There are currently 11 rigs on our dedicated acreage, with producers continuing to drive efficiency gains through longer laterals. In the Permian Basin, processed volumes increased 4% year-over-year, and we currently have 11 rigs operating across our footprint.
As Randy mentioned earlier, our expanded capacity in the Permian enhances system flexibility and positions us well to support producers' development plans across both the Midland and Delaware basins. Customer activity remains strong, and we are increasingly encouraged by the depth of opportunities the Permian Basin brings to our portfolio.
From a financial perspective, realized commodities prices were lower in the first quarter as a result of entering the year fully hedged. Importantly, underlying throughput volumes increased year-over-year across all regions, reinforcing the long-term earning capacity and resilience of our gathering and processing portfolio.
Producer behavior remains disciplined and execution-focused. We are seeing some acceleration in completion activity, which supports our confidence in the 2026 volume outlook.
That confidence is driven by direct visibility into producer plans rather than an expectation of higher commodity prices. This view is consistent with recent earnings commentary for oilfield services companies that noted early signs of increasing activity, particularly among private and single-basin operators.
DUC inventories can also provide an avenue for this acceleration. Our producer base across ONEOK's approximately 7 Bcf per day system is well-balanced among large public companies, private operators, and private equity-backed producers.
That diversity provides both scale and durability while allowing activity to adjust incrementally. I'll close with our natural gas pipeline segment, where strong results continued in the first quarter with all regions outperforming expectations.
Results benefited from wider-than-planned Waha to Katy location price differentials, as well as incremental marketing opportunities created by Winter Storm Fern across our Louisiana assets. Looking ahead, we expect Waha to Katy differentials to normalize as new pipeline egress comes online in the second half of the year.
Firm transportation demand remains strong, with high contracted capacity and strong utilization across our systems. We also continue to see significant interest from data center-related opportunities in Oklahoma and Texas, and we remain in advanced discussion with several counterparties.
Similarly, LNG-related demand remains strong both near-term and long-term, reinforcing the durability of our natural gas pipeline assets. Pierce, that concludes my remarks.
Pierce H. Norton II
Thank you Sheridan, Randy, and Walt for those comments. To close, I'll come back to where I started.
The energy landscape will continue to evolve, but the need for reliable, scalable U.S. energy infrastructure is not cyclical.
It is driven by long-term demand fundamentals. ONEOK is built for this environment, having an integrated platform with capacity, a strong balance sheet, and disciplined execution.
The results: durable, long-term value creation. Most importantly, none of this happens without our people.
I want to thank our employees for their continued focus on safety, operational excellence, innovation, and service. Thank you to our investors for your continued trust and support in ONEOK.
With that, Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
Operator
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, press *1 on your telephone keypad.
To leave the queue at any time, press *2. We do ask that you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up to fit in as many of you as we can.
Once again, that is *1 to ask a question. Our first question will come from Spiro Dounis with Citi.
Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Spiro Dounis
Thanks, Operator. Morning, team.
Maybe to start with the improved outlook, I'm just looking for a little more granularity on how much that $150 million move is maybe already realized here in the first quarter and how much, I guess what level of visibility you have on the remaining forward component. Sheridan, you mentioned sort of hedging out butane through '27.
Just curious how much of that forward look is locked in.
Walter S. Hulse III
Spiro, it's Walt. I just want to clarify and make sure that it's clear that Winter Storm Fern was already in our guidance, we had zero impact from that as it related to the increase.
The increase was really a blend of stronger volume expectations driven by higher commodity prices, continued expected differential opportunities, and then we've of course expect to realize some benefit from the higher commodity prices, although we are hedged. Typically we're hedged about 75% going into a year.
With the higher volume expectations, any volumes we receive going forward will enjoy the full benefit of these higher commodity prices.
Spiro Dounis
Understood. Walt, second one maybe for you as well, just pivoting to capital allocation.
Once again, a year trending a little bit stronger than expected. To just level-set us on how you're thinking about the timing to sort of reach your leverage targets here, and when you do free up that cash flow, just where your head's at on buybacks or any other uses of that free cash?
Walter S. Hulse III
Sure. Nothing's really changed from our capital expenditure plan.
As you know and Randy mentioned, our projects are on time and right on budget. We expect to start completing those this year with the Denver project finishing up and Medford first phase finishing up, as well as some of the smaller things.
As those wind down, as we've stated in the past, larger CapEx will be completed by mid-year of 2027, and that's when we'll really see the free cash flow kicking in. We're headed towards our leverage targets, clearly with the increased EBITDA expectations, as that denominator rises, we'll get there faster.
We continue to pay down debt, and we'll be in a position to meet our targets and return capital to shareholders appropriately. I want to make sure that everyone understands, our first objective is always to get high-return capital projects.
As we see those coming in, we'll definitely try to prioritize those, but our expectation is free cash flow, there will be plenty for those, our dividend, debt repayment, as well as other forms of return to shareholders.
Spiro Dounis
Great. I'll leave it there for today.
Thank you, guys.
Walter S. Hulse III
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Your line is now open.
Theresa Chen
Good morning. Going back to your comments on the upstream outlook, though it's still early on, can you elaborate further on recent conversations with your producer customers?
What are your near- and medium-term expectations for upstream activity in your areas of service? Where do you think prices will need to stabilize in the outer years to stimulate a material uptick in production?
How long would it take to see these volumes potentially materialize on your system?
Sheridan Swords
Theresa, this is Sheridan. The first thing we're seeing with producers is what we call kind of leaning in to production, and that starts with if there's anything that goes down, they're quickly getting that back up, quicker than they do in a much more lower-price environment.
We also see them bringing on more completion crews, so that's kind of impacting your DUCs as they go forward or bringing things on quicker that they've already drilled. The other thing, as I said in my remarks, we are starting to see some producers looking for additional rigs to start to bring online.
As we see in the environment we are today where a lot of people have seen the back end of the curve coming up, people are getting more excited about what the price environment's going to be going forward. Obviously, when we bring on rigs, the rig volume is a little more delayed into the back half of '26 than earlier.
As I said earlier, bringing more completion crews on and when they have any downtime getting that back on will be the more near-term effect on volumes.
Theresa Chen
Thank you. The second question is related to your export infrastructure and your outlook there, given the call on U.S.
energy resources and export infrastructure in particular. Within your existing liquids export docks on the heels of recently building out the connectivity between Galena Park, East Houston, and your Pasadena and BP joint venture, what kind of upside could you potentially service, whether it be optimization on utilization or incremental spot cargoes or even additional brownfield investment in Pasadena?
Then on the LPG front, can you just talk through the commercialization process at this point, and have those conversations with potential counterparties accelerated?
Sheridan Swords
Starting with our existing facilities, we have, as you mentioned, we have two marine export facilities for refined products on the Houston Ship Channel: Galena Park and MVP. We have seen increased activity across those docks going forward.
We still have more room that we could expand forward, and we are in conversations with customers around that. There could be a little bit of upside in that area.
On our crude dock, it is highly utilized right now. We have a lot more interest in there.
What we're seeing is the opportunity to extend contracts for more turn at more favorable rates than we historically have seen, we see some tailwinds not only in '26, but beyond in both of our export facilities. As it concerns our LPG dock, yeah, we are seeing an acceleration of interest.
We were seeing interest before the Middle East conflict. We're seeing even more of that interest.
Right now, we are not concerned at all about finishing the contracting of our target utilization of that dock here in the relative near future.
Pierce H. Norton II
Theresa, this is Pierce. I want to add something to what Sheridan said.
Just to remind everybody on this call that prior to the Iran war, the U.S. and the Middle East were the only two countries that were actually going to expand LNG facilities over the next five years.
Then if you fast-forward to today and you look at the damage that was done to Qatar's LNG facilities, more than likely the equipment that was ordered to do those expansions will probably go to rebuilding some of the damage that was done during these war efforts. That means that the incremental capacity is going to really land back in the United States.
With LNG going from 18 Bcf to 30 Bcf basically by 2030, and I'd like to remind everybody 65%-plus of all the U.S. gas has recoverable NGLs with it.
That's really going to drive a lot of the NGL growth here in the United States, and we're well-positioned for that. I think Sheridan did a great job of explaining the LPG exports, but it's providing a very constructive backdrop for the future volume growth here at ONEOK.
Theresa Chen
Thank you. If I could just squeeze in a final one, your condensate splitter in the Gulf Coast, what utilization is that seeing currently, and what's your recontracting timeline for that?
Sheridan Swords
Highly utilized right now, especially the spreads that we're seeing, and we have just recently recontracted that for term. That will be contracted here for the foreseeable future and will be running at high utilization rates.
Theresa Chen
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.
Your line is now open.
Michael Blum
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Wanted to go back to your comment on hedges. You said you entered the year about 75% hedged.
Wondering if you can give us a sense specifically on butane blending if that's the case as well, if you're 75% hedged going into the year, and then is there any kind of seasonality to those hedges? Are they sort of more back-end weighted, front-end loaded, or how that plays out?
Sheridan Swords
Michael, this is Sheridan. We came in highly hedged for the first quarter on the butane-to-RBOB hedges.
We had some space to hedge further out into the fourth quarter that we have done that at much higher prices after the Middle East conflict going forward. The thing we're really seeing on butane that's really exciting for us right now is that we're seeing, as I mentioned in my remarks, an increased gasoline volume across our system.
That gives us even more opportunity to blend. You couple that with the synergy projects that we brought online, that we think we have some really good tailwinds behind our blending operation, both here in the first quarter when you see a lot of blending, and in the fourth quarter when we see the fall blending season come about.
Michael Blum
Great. Appreciate that.
Then just wanted to ask the status of the potential Sunbelt Connector project. As I'm sure you're aware, Western Gateway appears close to moving forward, wondering if there's a possibility that you could somehow join that project in some capacity if it does reach FID, or if there's a path for both projects.
Thanks.
Sheridan Swords
Michael, this is Sheridan again. As I've said before, we think there's only room for one project.
What we've said before is if either one of these projects go forward, we think it will benefit ONEOK from us being able to bring volume out of the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Continent as volume leaves that to go to Arizona on the P66 project. We also think that we have the ability to supply coming out of the Gulf Coast with us being connected to all the refiners on the Gulf Coast and the ease of getting it into the El Paso area.
Michael Blum
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
Your line is now open.
Jean Ann Salisbury
Hi, good morning. You touched on [unclear] on butane blending volume driven by ONEOK's systems.
Can you give a little more color on how much more butane blending volume could be physically possible on your system for 2025 and just what your prior CapEx [unclear] and is that something that you would consider to increase that volume potential?
Walter S. Hulse III
Jean Ann, you are breaking up quite badly there. It was very difficult to understand what you were saying.
Could you try that again? Maybe pick up your handset?
Jean Ann Salisbury
Sorry about that. I was asking about butane volumes and what it would take for ONEOK to increase butane volume on your system.
Sheridan Swords
The butane on our volumes is related to blending. We've been increasing that for the last three years, I think every season.
We've been able to blend more and more on our system as we continue to go forward, especially as we brought these synergy projects online. To see a meaningful uptick in our system, what we need is more volume across our system on gasoline.
We are seeing that right now, and we could even see that grow as I had mentioned in there the rest of the year into the fourth quarter if you see jet fuel continuing tightening and prices continue to rise for people to be able to travel by airplane and move more toward traveling by vehicle this
Jean Ann Salisbury
summer. That makes sense.
Hopefully this will be a little more clear. Sorry about that.
My other question was that Waha spreads are wider than expected this year. Can you remind us if you lose that exposure over the course of the year or if it's all in 2027 that goes away?
Sheridan Swords
Breaking up a little bit, Jean, but I think you said is the Waha to Katy spread was wider this year in the first quarter than we anticipated and we were able to capture that. We see that continue through the second quarter into the third quarter when additional pipeline capacity will come online and then it will go back to being more normalized at that time.
Jean Ann Salisbury
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with J.P.
Morgan. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tonet
Hi, good morning.
Walter S. Hulse III
Morning.
Jeremy Tonet
Just wanted to touch on I guess the guide and thoughts on EBITDA for the year. If I look at 1Q results and granted there were items that might not repeat, but if I annualize that, that would pretty much get you to the bottom end of the guide.
If I look at last year, look at the difference between 1Q and 4Q, it's a pretty big step-up and talk about seasonality over the course of the year. I was wondering if you could just help us think about shaping of the year, EBITDA by quarter, if that's going to vary from your pattern before or is there kind of conservatism built into your guidance expectations at this point?
Walter S. Hulse III
Jeremy, I'd just point you back to the earnings presentation. I think it's page 5 in there, where we've tried to reflect the shape of that, as well as demonstrate how the first quarter was the lowest.
We expect the shape of that curve to continue. The only thing that might change a little bit might be an upward slope if we see some enhanced volume in the later part of the year.
No change in the front end, and hopefully a big change in the back end.
Jeremy Tonet
Got it. Annualizing the first quarter, and there's that slope would put you over the top end, it seems like.
It seems like a good year shaping up there. I was wondering, as we think about the uplift in the '26 guide, how much of that do you see recurring in '27?
Walter S. Hulse III
I think we're positioned very well to go into '27 with a great tailwind behind us and really have some nice volume growth and strength. I'd remind you that we have a significant amount of operating leverage on our Bakken pipeline, on the West Texas NGL pipeline, out of the Mid-Continent.
As volumes pick up in the basins we serve, we don't have any incremental CapEx that needs to be spent. All that's going to drop to the bottom line.
We're looking pretty positively as we go into '27. Clearly, we've had some benefit from the differential on the Waha to Katy that may not be there next year, but our system is diverse, and we find differentials all the time.
As we bring on Medford, we might see a pickup in the north-south differentials as well. We're there positioned to capture those across our integrated system whenever they present themselves.
Jeremy Tonet
Understood. I'll leave it there.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jackie Koletas with Goldman Sachs.
Your line is now open.
Jacqueline Koletas
Hi, thank you so much for the time today. Just going back to the guide one more really quickly.
How would you frame up kind of the magnitude of the optimization upside that's now expected relative to that $150 million of year-over-year headwinds that was previously assumed?
Walter S. Hulse III
I think clearly we knew going into our guidance that these pipes were going to be constrained throughout at least the first two quarters and into the third, so that was factored into our guidance. As it relates to the Waha to Katy spread, a good portion of that, it's been a little stronger than we had expected, we've gotten some incremental benefit.
A good portion of that was already there. When you looked at the bridge last year from '25 into '26, there was a portion of that was really the hedging that was done in '25 for '26, as it compared to '25, was that had some lower pricing.
That was factored into our guidance as well. Really the potential changes to the upside if we get more volume and enjoy these higher rates on all of that, and then there's still 25% that is unhedged that will enjoy the higher benefits.
Jacqueline Koletas
That's clear. Thank you.
Then can you touch on incremental opportunities within the natural gas segment, maybe longer-term? While benefiting from price differentials today, how are you thinking about your exposure to power demand and how have those commercial discussions trended recently?
Sheridan Swords
This is Sheridan. We are in advanced discussions with both AI and power demand right now.
We have some very nice projects that are in the queue, and then we actually have projects behind that that we're even working on as well as they continue move forward. We are very excited about what we see in the natural gas demand sector and where our assets sit, especially in the Oklahoma, Texas region for the power and AI demand going forward.
We'll have these projects in 2026 and 2027. It is a good time to be in the natural gas segment, for sure.
Walter S. Hulse III
What I would add, another focus point that's the same thing is when we first started talking about AI opportunities as it related to power generation, we originally saw those as kind of short lays, smaller volumes, not necessarily that much of a material impact. As we've now gone through time and we're talking to more and more of these hyperscalers, the volumes that they're requiring is going to require us to reach back further into our systems and lay larger pipelines.
I think that's the big change that I've seen from where I sit versus where we were maybe a year and a half, two years ago.
Jacqueline Koletas
Great. Appreciate the color.
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.
Your line is now open.
Keith Stanley
Good morning. Wanted to follow up on Western Gateway.
As you assess what that project could do to the market, do you see it mainly as an opportunity for longer-haul volumes on your system out of the Gulf Coast, or do you think this could create constraints and meaningful new growth investments like the Denver project to expand pipeline capacity?
Sheridan Swords
I think it's a little bit of both. Obviously, if we start shipping volume out of the Gulf Coast up into the Mid-Continent to fulfill volume that's leaving the Mid-Continent to go on that Western Gateway project, that's going to mean we're going to get a longer tariff because we're moving volume from a much longer distance away.
Also the tariff from Gulf Coast out to El Paso is a very long tariff, one of our higher tariffs, if we increase that volume as well, that's going to have a very nice impact on ONEOK continuing to go forward. Obviously as we get more demand, will we see more expansion of product on our system?
We will as people are going to shift out of the Gulf Coast more over to our system to be able to get it out to El Paso and to meet this access into the Phoenix and California markets.
Keith Stanley
Thanks for that. A second question, the Bakken volumes were only down 2% to 3% versus Q4.
That seemed a lot better than the seasonal guidance that you had pointed to last quarter on what's typical in Q1. Would you say volumes in the Bakken surprised to the upside in Q1 versus what you were expecting?
Sheridan Swords
A little bit. We try to average it out over the four months and everything else, it can be a little bit surprising to us where the winter actually hits and when we see the volume come online.
I would say outside of Winter Storm Fern, we've been pleasantly surprised with our volumes in the Bakken.
Keith Stanley
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brandon Bingham with Scotiabank.
Your line is now open.
Brandon Bingham
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions here.
I wanted to maybe talk about your Permian processing capacity portfolio and how you see that sort of evolving in light of all this resilient gas production and just seeing some other operators in the basin discuss a more optimistic outlook for run-rate capacity additions on an annual basis. How do you see that being incorporated into your portfolio moving forward?
Sheridan Swords
I think Randy had mentioned already right now we just put in 150 million a day, the Shadowfax plant that we moved out of the Barnett into the Midland Basin, we've run another 150 million a day on there that we see that ramping out over time. Then right behind that, we have some low-cost capacity expansions in the Delaware, 110 million a day, that will come up later this year.
Then we've already announced the 300 million a day plant that we'll be putting in the Delaware beyond that. Those are what we have announced.
We continue to look forward. We see a lot of opportunity in the Permian Basin.
We're in a lot of discussions on RFPs, especially in the Delaware, that we would have the potential even expand that capacity even more beyond what we see today. I think we are, as like everybody else, very optimistic on the growth out of the Permian.
Brandon Bingham
Great. Thank you.
Then just wanted to go back to some comments made earlier about better volume expectations this year as part of the guidance increase. Could you help frame up how the new volume expectations compared to maybe the various midpoints within the businesses?
I noticed the ranges didn't necessarily change, but it sounds like within those ranges the expectation is definitely better now.
Walter S. Hulse III
As I said, our increase in guidance was balanced across what we've seen in volumes, and Sheridan just mentioned that we did have a little bit stronger first quarter volumes in some areas than we might historically expect, given what the heater-treater impact and that sort of thing would have been. As we go forward, we hope that builds, and we've taken that kind of projected it forward.
Clearly, I think it's still to be seen what these higher commodity prices are going to do from producer activity. Some of our smaller producers, private equity or smaller independents, seem to be a little bit quicker to think about rigs and getting them fired up, we could see some of that impact a little quicker.
Where I think the larger exploration companies are waiting for that curve to reflect what they think the fundamentals are, and then they'll make their decision. We're not trying to get too far ahead of our volume expectations.
We'll let that lay out. We do think in this commodity environment and how it's going to look into '27 that we would expect to go into '27 with a really nice tailwind behind us.
Brandon Bingham
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global Securities.
Your line is now open.
Sunil Sibal
Hi, good morning, and hopefully you can hear me all right. My first question was related to the hedging.
I think you mentioned on the call that you put in some hedges for '27 also. Could you indicate how much of your total 2027 commodity price exposure is hedged now?
Walter S. Hulse III
We're not going to get into specifics, but we've taken opportunities to make sure that we've captured at least a portion of what we see in '27. Clearly, we've been focused on the tail end of '26.
Across our various businesses, we've layered in some portion of '27 at this point. In the markets that we can, it's probably important to note that in many of the markets that we are serving, there's just not a lot of liquidity in '27 or the backwardation is just so significant that we wouldn't want to do that.
We've been opportunistic, but where we think it made sense, we've looked at it, and we're going to continue to look at it throughout the year.
Pierce H. Norton II
Sunil, this is Pierce. The one thing I'd add to that is that we have what we call a programmatic hedging program where we just automatically hedge a certain percentage as the year goes by out.
It's not until we see some of these opportunistic opportunities that we go out and do anything like Walt just described. We don't try to time the market or sitting here waiting on something to happen and then move.
We just methodically go through the year and we do that because we're 90% fee-based anyway, and so we just want to make sure we're not speculating too much on the hedging program.
Sunil Sibal
Understood. Then one clarification on the potential projects that you're looking on, I think you mentioned in Texas and Oklahoma with the data center clients.
Should we think about those as significant CapEx opportunities which some midstream players are undertaking, or should we think about more like incremental CapEx or small incremental CapEx for those opportunities?
Walter S. Hulse III
I think as we've gone through and given you some thoughts about '27 and beyond '27 into '28, '29 in a run rate, we've looked at kind of a run rate of around $600 million of maintenance, about $1 billion, give or take, of what we call routine growth, and a portion of this would be in that routine growth. Then we left kind of another $500 million to $600 million to get you to a little bit over $2 billion kind of run rate going forward basically unallocated.
These types of projects, while they're bigger than our expectation, we originally thought they'd be $50 million projects, they're turning out to be $400 million to $700 million projects. They'll fit right in that window that we had left open, and they're coming in at really nice returns.
Sunil Sibal
Got it. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Gabe Moreen with Mizuho.
Your line is now open.
Gabriel Moreen
Hey, good morning, everyone. If I could just ask about petchem economics having improved quite a great deal here over the last month or two, are you seeing any change in behavior on ethane extraction as it relates to either the Bakken or Cajun Sibon going into Louisiana?
I'm just curious if things have changed on that end at all.
Sheridan Swords
Gabe, you're right. Obviously what's going on in the world right now, the ethane economics in the United States are very strong, and we're seeing our petrochemical customers operating at very high utilization rates.
What it has done is we are seeing the ability for our discretionary ethane out of the Bakken and at times out of Oklahoma to be good, be strong, and that's driving some of what we see in volume, we mentioned. Going into Cajun Sibon, that's coming out of the Mid-Continent and out of the Bakken as we direct raw feed over into our Louisiana fractionators.
It hasn't really changed that amount on that piece, but as I said before, I think we will see some pretty good tailwinds on ethane coming out of the Bakken and ethane coming out of the Mid-Continent through the rest of the year with the strong demand we're seeing from the petrochemical facilities.
Gabriel Moreen
Great. Then if I could just a quick follow-up, the PRB new plant there, it sounds like it's going to fill pretty quickly.
Any visibility to more capacity there? Then I think there was also a call-out for Northern Border performance during the quarter was that one-time in nature or kind of as a step-up on rate-of-all earnings there?
Sheridan Swords
Let's see, on the Powder River, we've been working on that plant for a period of time. It's a 60 million a day plant.
As we mentioned, we have a JV partner that's a producer up in that area coming along with us. We are getting more and more excited what we're seeing there.
That's going to fill fairly quickly. Do we see there's opportunity for more volume?
We hope so. Discussions with them, we'll continue to evaluate that, but we do think there's possibility to put some more capacity up there as we look forward.
Northern Border is pretty steady. Outperformance is a little bit.
Frankly, we see that kind of every year a little bit, that they come in a little bit higher than what they had predicted. We continue to see this year and we expect to continue to see that throughout the year.
Pierce H. Norton II
Gabe, one of the things that's in the volumes is the amount of the area dedication. There's plenty of running room up there to continue to drill there in the Powder.
Gabriel Moreen
Gosh. Thanks, Pierce.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.
Your line is now open.
Jason Gabelman
Hey, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to go back to full-year guidance.
I guess when I look at your slide deck from 4Q from last quarter, you show that at the time of your initial, I guess, '26 outlook was predicated at $75 oil. That was, call it $8.7 billion-ish, maybe a little higher of EBITDA for '26.
Oil moved down, your '26 EBITDA outlook moved lower, but we've seen oil now move higher, and I understand the hedging dynamics mean maybe you don't capture all of the upside this year. Would you expect to kind of get back to capturing that upside next year based on where the commodity curves are right now?
Walter S. Hulse III
What I would say there is you're absolutely right that clearly we've got a different realized price environment, so that is going to take some time to work its way through. Also it takes some time for rigs to get up and moving.
When you didn't have quite as much rig activity as we had expected, that has a impact that you're starting from a different point as you exit '26. We think we are going to see that type of strength.
Not going to give you an actual guide to a number, but we're going to see that type of strength that we expected as volumes pick up if these prices stay or go higher, especially in the back end of the curve. There's a pretty big difference between the prompt month and as you go out towards '27.
That's going to be the story to tell as that plays out coming forward.
Jason Gabelman
Great, thanks. Just a quick follow-up on a comment you just made.
Did I hear you right that some of the data center-related projects you're pursuing, you thought they were going to be in the $50 million range, and now they're coming in more like $400 to $700 million? Those are right figures?
Walter S. Hulse III
The thing is originally when we go back to that 50, that was a couple years ago when we first started seeing opportunities, and people talked about siting these facilities, they were dropping them right next to pipelines, thinking that they could take the gas off those pipelines. When they were doing that, a lot of them were in the development stage, didn't have a lot of hyperscalers involved, some of the specs might not have been quite as realistic.
When the hyperscalers talk about 5 gigawatt facilities, you can't just take that kind of gas off of a fully contracted pipe. What it's caused, as Pierce said, is for us to need to look at reaching back into our system where the gas is available and building bigger pipe.
That's why the size of the projects have gone up. At the end of the day, the value of getting these projects done to the hyperscalers is still well above their concern about price.
They're very pleased to provide good economics to make sure that speed and reliability are there.
Jason Gabelman
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Our final question comes from Gabe Daoud with Truist.
Your line is now open.
Gabe Daoud
Thanks, Operator, and morning, everyone. Thanks for the time.
Just quickly back to the upstream conversations, just curious if there's any notable difference in behavior or price that operators need to see on the screen as you talk to publics versus privates, just curious, especially as it looks like current rig activity is largely dominated by privates in the Bakken for your footprint.
Sheridan Swords
Gabe, this is Sheridan. We're definitely seeing more on the private sector, more activity or talking about more activity than we're seeing on the public sector, especially with the large integrated.
Large integrated are still being very disciplined, and looking at the price environment in front of it. We are seeing, especially on the private equity side, starting to look more at rigs, more completion, trying to move production up.
That's where the majority of the activities happen. I think as we've stated here, as we continue to go throughout the year and everybody expects the back end of this curve to move up, as the paper's not reflecting what we're seeing in the physical world.
When that happens, I think you could start seeing some more of the integrated and larger companies lean in more at that time or start bringing rigs on at that time. We still are seeing, even with the large, them making sure they get any time they're down, they get things back up and looking to complete wells quicker than they had been in the past.
Really concerning rig deployment, that is more into the private sector.
Walter S. Hulse III
There's one other element I think's worth mentioning here is that they are really leaning in to the efficiency of their drilling and how they're completing in the length of these laterals, I don't think we need to get too hung up on numbers of rigs, because the ones that are running, they're really putting a lot of emphasis on how efficient those rigs are to make them more profitable per well.
Operator
Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session.
I would now like to turn the call back over to Megan Patterson for closing remarks.
Megan Patterson
Our quiet period for the second quarter starts when we close our books in early July and extends until we release earnings in early August. We'll provide details for that conference call at a later date.
Our IR team will be available throughout the day for any follow-ups. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.
Operator
Thank you. That concludes today's call.
You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.