Mihkel Torim
Hello. Good day to everybody who's participating.
This time it's myself and Meelis—
Meelis Paakspuu
Hello.
Mihkel Torim
—giving you an overview of our third quarter results. We had the strongest quarter to date, our net profit in the full quarter was €37.5 million, up significantly on quarter-to-quarter basis and also year-over-year.
If we unpack that a little bit, the net income side increased 10%, loan portfolio grew 14%, and deposits grew by 4% year-over-year as well. The third quarter return on equity for the group was 19.3%, cost-income at 54.2%.
Something that we need to highlight right away is that fundamentally, third quarter was strong already pretty much as we anticipated, moving according to plan. There was also a significant positive one-off, it was a large release of provisions in Estonia related to one client.
On the other hand, there were some smaller provisions that we did in UK. Overall, that led to approximately €9.1 million release of provisions on the on the group level.
On LHV Bank side in UK, the loan portfolio crossed €1 billion, so that's 56% year-over-year growth and net profit was €1.4 million. Assets under management in Varahaldus grew 12%, and then insurance premiums grew 20% year-over-year.
We continue to be in a soft market in in insurance in Estonia, but we see also some positive trends there. Main growth driver clearly was net interest income.
If we look at where we started in first quarter and and where we are now, we are now seeing significant growth based on our lending portfolio and and also there's a lot of work that has been done both on the on the assets and liability side to to optimize the performance. We will go through the details as we as we go through the slides.
On quarter quarter-on-quarter comparison, visible increase in the net interest income. Also, third quarter was relatively strong on the fee side where we have been lagging during the first and second quarter, but there continues to be a lot of things that we can still do concerning product development overall.
A lot of long-term work is going into that line, to say. Then on the other income row, you can see there's a -5.5, this is related to our liquidity portfolio.
I will not stop there. Meelis will cover this and and talk about it in detail.
Short summary is that this is basically mark-to-market fluctuation and we have no intention to see that as a sort of realized loss. This will kind of work itself out during the next quarters, it's just volatility.
Again, Meelis will go through that in more detail. Overall, net income growth was 1% quarter-to-quarter, but I would still like to emphasize the growth in the interest income and on the fee income side.
Then on the expenses, they were flat compared to the last quarter. Then you can see here there's a significant release of provisions under the impairment losses row, €8.9 million all together.
Overall we, yeah, we managed to generate €37.5 million net profit and in September specifically, 18.1, which is not, some of it is not recurring, but on the other hand, I think the underlying business is also doing quite well. We will go through them one by one.
Loan portfolio growth 3% over quarter, deposits pretty much growing in the similar amount. Slight decrease in asset assets under management on the Varahaldus side, number of customers growing pretty much according to growth rates that we have seen so far.
I would say that in third quarter, the client growth was even a bit higher, which can be seasonal, but at the same time, I think it's a good trend. ROE given the impact of the provision as well was 19.3% and net interest income margin 2.8%, which is a which is a strong level.
Now if we look at the year-on-year comparison, it's also becoming more and more evident that in third quarter '25, we already started to witness the impact of the interest rate environment in a negative way. Then now on year-over-year comparison, we see obviously the this basically this trend reversing.
We can witness quite significant growth on the interest income and in third quarter also on the fee income side. Also highlighting the fact that year-over-year, I think all of our portfolio growth metrics, customer metrics are quite favorable.
Yes, we will we will go through the details of the subsidiaries as we as we go along. Then I will turn over to Meelis for a while to talk about the asset-liability side and some effects on the profitability.
Meelis Paakspuu
Hello from my side as well. That covering first profitability and that when we are looking at year on year changes, that the biggest item here is clearly the interest income side that as of total, interest income side has been almost €15 million better.
Same time when we are looking at the related items next to it, there is an other net income expense, what is containing the revaluation of liquidity portfolio. That what we did and what we have done this year differently is that in second, end of first quarter, beginning of second quarter, we we shifted €700 million worth of liquid assets from central bank accounts to to liquidity portfolio, what is measured in mark-to-market level.
This €700 million is mostly, or actually all of this is only government bonds, European level and the maximum duration is is two years. When we now measure it, the portfolio, then it is around 1.5 years duration.
When interest rate get up or increase, then outcome is that we are getting immediate loss, revaluation loss from this portfolio. Same time when interest rates are going up, then our loan portfolio is yielding higher, our interest what we're earning from central bank are yielding higher.
Yes, deposits are increasing as well. Deposit rates are increasing as well, but all in all there is an sizable structural position in in LHV that LHV is gaining when interest rates are increasing and losing when interest rates are are falling.
This is partially the reason when we were looking how how tough the year 2026 was and beginning of 2020, wait, 2025 was and the beginning of 2026 as well. That now we are in the positive cycle that we are gaining.
That, but in short term this revaluation is netting partially the positive trend out. In long term, we are we are certainly earning from that side as well couple of additional millions versus keeping the funds in in central bank.
That looking other factors in the in the profitability that net fee income is more or less flat year-to-year. That what is would like to be slightly higher, but mostly there is an less fees in in banking service sides and so and last year some of these items are again related to comparison that last year there were some larger positive transactions in the picture, but this year are not not there.
Overall, fee income is moving in the right direction. Personnel expenses, widely covered topics that here as the business has been growing, there there are slightly more people that, this shows that the clearly negative impact on the P&L as well.
IT expenses and other operating expenses, partially we could label it in this way that when LHV moved to cloud in first half this year, and also some of the items are are still from the old systems in place by the contracts, there is some double cost space inside to 2026. In 2027, these are all disappeared that as the bank is fully Amazon cloud-based bank, that so there are very, very small amount of databases what are still kept locally.
Yes, that's regarding the profitability, that overall profitability more or less the same as as nine months last year. When we're looking forward, then hopefully we will be able to beat last year results.
Balance sheet-wise, here in asset side, you are seeing one item what has changed and it is the brownish color there in the middle of the graph that, and this is the liquidity portfolio what we have been building up over the last seven, eight months. That this is generating the volatility, but we are happy with the volatility that at the end of the day, what matters is the total P&L, but and we are earning more on on this portfolio than than keeping the liquid liquidity only in central bank.
On liability side, when you compare year-on-year numbers, that then almost everything is is the same. Only item what has changed is that is platform deposits in Estonian side has been decreased, but same time on group level, this is not seen anyway.
Loan portfolio side, what you don't see here is that that the Stage 3 ratio has not decreased yet. The reason is that, yes, we have released the provisions, we have a positive solution for one large corporate, but the loan is still out.
That until the loan is still out, then the loan is still kept in Stage 3 and so this Stage 3 percentage-wise is still on this 1.5% level. That, but same time this also appears in Stage 3 collateral shortfall that compare to last quarter that there is almost 10% 10% drop in collateral coverage side.
That and this is all related to this one specific case that we do not need to have collateral and on the loan where we know that it is coming back, that it is coming through the bankruptcy case back, and the deposit is already sitting in our bank, but it is not linked to this specific loan that we just know that it will be covered. Will it be covered in Q4, or paid back in Q4, hopefully, maybe in Q1 next year.
When we're looking at sector-base, still picture is very much the same as as last quarters that private individuals are still exactly as the same, 36%, and more or less same percentages in real estate and rest is then this kind of well-diversified portfolio as as in most of the larger banks in in Estonia. Capital side.
Every time we have discussed about this, that the numbers are not final because there is an ECB approval needed to include Q3 profits into capital adequacy. We added a column with this one.
This shows that we have enough capital. We Our capital ratios, MREL ratios are on the proper level, we are able to fulfill all the requirements.
Liquidity, there is an slight drop in liquidity-wise in LCR and NSFR, but still we are talking about way higher levels than regulatory ones, plus also higher than our own internal ones that so and the ratios are still compared to our competitors on the high end. Why there is a drop is deliberate letting go platform deposits in Estonia that, and so helps to save save some costs and we do not need for any other in these ratio anymore anymore either either that.
Taking year-to year-to-date numbers and comparing with financial plan, then interest income clearly ahead, net fee income, yes, it is behind. Other income here was the volatility from liquidity portfolio is clearly behind, but this is an this is something what is disappearing.
Not this year, but unless interest are coming coming down very quickly. That, but certainly next year that there will be a positive number.
All in all, our profitability is that that we are our net profit is ahead of financial plan, and we see that there is a very high likelihood that we will be able to fulfill our financial plan this year. That return on equity is getting better, cost-income is going down that, numbers are moving in the right directions.
Not in just one angle, but in throughout the balance sheet, throughout the business activities. Covering the Estonian bank as well that partially it is repeating story because Estonian banking entity is so large part of group that, most of the comments what we made on the group level are actually coming from the coming from Estonian banking entity.
That's First of all, net profit up quarter-to-quarter by €13.9 million, that all in all, earning €33 million profit per quarter, that it is not the highest, but it is one of the highest quarters in LHV Bank's history. Return on equity, 20.
21.6%, solid number. It is It is something what we would like to see more or less on regular regular quarters that, yes, we had gotten some one-offs in positive side, but same time we had one-offs also in negative side.
I'm more looking at this outcome as such. That cost-income, 46%, still slightly high.
Would like to get it lower, and we have the plans how to get some there. That things are moving in the right direction.
Customer base has been increasing by 8.8 thousand to 517,000, that so shows that the client base is growing. It is The business is moving in the right right direction.
Mihkel Torim
I will just take over for this slide. For first half of the year, we have worked quite a lot on the retail side and on the retail product development in Estonia.
Here we just wanted to highlight few outcomes that are already live and on the market and introduced to our client base in Estonia. First highlight is the so to say, soft launch or beta launch of lhv.ai.
Effectively, as far as I know, LHV was the first bank in European Union to launch the MCP-based AI integration, customers can use their own preferred AI tooling to connect to their accounts and basically get information out of them. It's not a two-way street, it's a one-way street.
What we see is that the number of customers who have adopted this, who are using this day-to-day, are very engaged. We have also a lot of insight, a lot of ideas, and a lot of understanding on how do entrepreneurs and how do retail customers use AI tooling and how they really sort of get benefits from the effect of the accounts being integrated, so that you wouldn't just need to copy-paste information out of the account information.
With that, we are learning quite a lot. We are also learning how we can build better tools within our own bank's perimeter or our own apps and our own channels.
This is very, I would say, interesting trends. As said, the users are very active and they also are sharing a lot of feedback and the ideas on how we can develop this further.
Another thing which is, I would say, we've been owing this to our clients for already too long is a proper planning tool, a categorization tool for your income, for your costs, for your savings. We have launched this, and also the launch and the adoption rate showed that this was clearly something that clients wanted, expected, and in that, it has also performed much better than we anticipated.
When it comes to the depth of the service that we provide to retail customers, usability, we think this is super important to retain our competitive edge. We want to be ahead of the others, provide better solutions.
These are just one of the few items that we have released. There will be several more coming out during the next months and quarters.
I'm really happy that our product development speed has picked up substantially compared to what it was before. Last but not least, we were also recognized as the best bank in Estonia by Euromoney.
Together with new product releases and the sort of innovation that we hope we are providing to our customers, it's also good to see the recognition from Euromoney as well. Then I will hand back to Meelis again.
Meelis Paakspuu
Looking at deposit side, that the picture is actually misleading. The picture states that within last 12 months that LHV has lost 3% of deposits.
Now when we are more getting closer to the numbers, that then when you look at the item called platform, or platform deposits, that this has disappeared from the picture. A year ago, we had around €500 million of platform deposits.
We decided to pay this back in Q Q2 2026, and last months we paid back in Q3, that so as of now, we have from platforms less than €10 million of deposits in Estonia. That so if we are adjusting the picture and taking these platform deposits out, then the statement is that our deposit base, regular customer deposit base, has been growing more around 5, 6%.
That so it is slightly faster than the Estonian deposit market dynamics in total. That even, but even more important is the fact of the share of term deposits, that where the money is coming, that is it coming from the term deposits, or is it coming from the current accounts?
Term deposits are always more expensive than current accounts. That so we have been managing to reduce term deposits from 26% to to 22%.
It is It has a sizeable impact in the P&L. This is what we have been clearly pushing for, that our profitability is getting better from that side.
That, but same time we have to say that deposits and competition regarding deposits are very much in focus in all of the banks, that Estonian deposit market has been growing only 4% over the last 12 months. That lending market, on next slide, has been growing 10% year-on-year.
That yes, partially the gap between these two growth can be covered from through through covered bonds, through capital, through MREL type of bonds, in some banks' case, also borrowings from the parents. In general, the system itself has to fund locally.
That in long term, loan market and deposit market should grow more or less with the same speed. That the and there we see that that the Estonian loan market has been growing faster than we actually anticipated.
That we anticipated that it is it is below 10 this year. This is also that when we're looking at our own deposit, lending growth that year-on-year, it is around 7% level.
That we expected that we we would be able to slightly beat market, that yes, competition in the lending side is heavy as well, especially on the corporate side, that so there is and we are not ready to do very low profitability transactions. That that this is This means that we are not there for just taking the market share.
We are looking for the specific loans what are fitting to our portfolio. Net fees and net interest both are growing in the right direction and with pretty fast pace, that net interest income has been growing by 22%, fees by 15%.
Same times, when we look at absolute numbers, then fee income is still four to five times smaller than than than commission than interest income, that so something what we would like that it would be higher. That is it easy to be done?
No, it's not. It is a tough work to increase fee income because this is about product offering.
This is about channels. This is about specific products, most convenient products, and there is a work for where we are spending huge amount of time and investments.
That so target is to increase fee income, hopefully a lot. Expenses, around 3 13% growth.
Some of them are slightly one-offs, but as I mentioned earlier that on other P&L side, I'm ignoring tend to ignore one-offs, I would ignore this these ones here as well, that so just looking at the numbers of Q2 versus Q3, that it gives a false feeling that Q3 cost space has been significantly lower. It's more about this that the cost base is not lower, but people had a vacation in Q3 and based on Estonian accounting logic, you accumulate reserves over throughout the year, and then this reserves are used for when people are actually taking a vacation, that on these months when people are on vacation, that the costs on the bank level or entity level is is lower.
That so taking this one-off out, we are more or less on the same level as as a Q2. Total, quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year, that P&L-wise, picture looks very decent, that our profitability is more or less exactly the on the same level as it used to be a year ago.
When we are comparing with our financial plans, we are a couple of million ahead and we plan to be ahead by the end of the year. That business volume-wise, loans clearly ahead, deposits, as we decided to decrease these deposits or let banking the platform deposits out within this year, then compared to financial plan, it is shows a negative number, but in reality, liquidity is decent, that no need for adding deposit base.
Cost-income, return on equity, already on the level where what we would like to have, that so numbers are are moving in the right directions. Business is showing clearly that we are the full bank is starting to deliver positive results.
Giving it over to Mihkel, who is covering other subsidiaries.
Mihkel Torim
Yes. Thank you very much for the overview, Meelis.
We go to United Kingdom. Regarding LHV Bank's third quarter results there, net income was growing by 31%, profit increased by 38%, loan portfolio exceeded €1 billion, and that has been a 56% growth year-over-year while we had a similar growth in deposits as well.
On the ROE and cost-income level, I wish we could show the same numbers as we just showed on the Estonian bank, but this is an investment. We are growing our business and we have a good understanding on how we reach, hopefully quite soon, increased levels of profitability and return as well, which is obviously our aim with the bank in UK.
Specifically regarding on some of the costs, in fact, third quarter, we took on a bit more costs than we planned, but this was to some degree investments as well. It was branding-related, marketing, and there were also AI toolings that were introduced, including also agentic AI that we have launched for the retail customer support.
Issue being that our retail bank is small, and if we want to scale our customer base and improve the quality of the customer service, we have to do it with, I would say, modern methods and ways so that we wouldn't need to increase the head count too much. We have introduced tools that we are now trialing and also the initial results are very promising.
Visually, we can see also here the loan growth, the deposit growth. In the last month, I would say, probably in September, the lending growth has been a bit slower, but it's month-to-month, it's still patchy.
We expect that in the fourth quarter, it will pick up, our targets should be reachable for the end of the year, presumably. Having said that, we had a bit higher provisions in September than was written in the plan, €1.5 million worth.
Again, these are managed loans. These are well-collateralized loans, if we just recently discussed a larger release, then we obviously are working with each and every single item and loans that we have provisioned on.
Again, as we grow the portfolio, the provisions, yeah, there will be cost to risk and sort of month-to-month this can be patchy as well. Overall, we don't see any significant issues.
It's just part of the growth trajectory also on the portfolio level. On the deposit side, we grew.
This time, we also took on more deposits from the platform. The interesting thing with the UK market is that there are quite a few deposit platforms that we're working with, and then also we have the direct retail deposits.
Based on the growth trajectory of the portfolio, based on the funding cost, we're making day-to-day decisions whether we are increasing the direct retail part or we are increasing the platform part. Overall, it's good to see that all of that is functioning.
Again, on the retail side, our average deposit is also reasonably high. That's definitely a good signal.
When it comes to retail, as I mentioned before, the developments that we're doing on the customer side, the more depth that we add to our UK retail service, the better it gets, this will effectively start to bring down the cost of the funding as well, but this takes time, investments, and yeah, it's part of the long-term plan. Net interest income, substantial growth.
This has been the biggest driver of the UK bank this year. Also related fee income that we have generated on that side.
On the other hand, where we are lagging behind is banking services. While we are growing the volumes with our customers, it's a very competitive market.
The fee levels that we have received this year are below our expectations, but this is something that we work on. This is something where we have a good understanding what needs to be done.
We are definitely developing the sort of product offering, focusing on some of the clients where we can add more value. We think we can get through this cycle as well and effectively grow the fee income related to banking services in the future.
At the moment, it has been declining and we admit that. On the operational expenses, it was a bit higher in third quarter, but as mentioned before, there were some marketing costs and there were some investments that are really there to help us scale in the future with smaller sort of OPEX increase down the road.
This is just to sort of summarize what we have already discussed. On the interest income side, ahead of the plan, the line that says net fee sharing, so that's behind, so that's the banking services part.
Then also we had the impairment losses, which were higher than we originally anticipated, but nothing significant in the bigger picture. Overall, yeah, we're lagging behind the financial plan.
On the other hand, year-over-year, we are showing growth and we continue to see and believe that the scale that we are achieving will be the sort of biggest enabler for increased profitability going forward. On the asset management, asset management is pretty much delivering according to what they have planned.
Slight growth in income. Net profit is lower, but this is primarily because of the higher dividend payment that was made to the group based on last year results.
The funds are increasing, both the second and third pillar funds are increasing year-over-year. Fund performance has been strong throughout the product offering.
Also in the third quarter, the customer number has pretty much remained stable. We're not happy about the fact that it's where it is.
We hope that it will start to grow, we are also making steps in that regard on how to improve the sales process throughout the asset management products. Bottom line is slightly ahead of the plan.
Steady as she goes, no big deviations overall. Insurance.
First quarter was tough. Second quarter was according to plan.
In third quarter, we had two good months, which was basically September and August, and then July was tough one as well on the loss ratio. It's clear that we won't be recouping the original plan, we will be lagging behind on the insurance side.
I think our biggest task now is to make sure that going into the fourth quarter as well, that we deliver the plan for that one and we don't fall further behind. On the positive note, however, the market seems to be improving.
The market overall has been tough, the prices have gone down quite a lot, but we see improvement in that regard. Hopefully, this will increase the profitability level going forward as well.
Overall, premiums written has grown. Losses have been patchy, first quarter was relatively high, third quarter as well, second quarter was lower.
Probably fourth quarter will be seasonally relatively high, but on the other hand, also we see that the top line is improving. Hopefully, it will go according to the original plan.
That you can see on the results as well. Third quarter, we had a small profit.
Second quarter was much stronger, but if you compare it to the last year, it's a big deviation. Again, it's mostly it's due to market conditions, and at the same time, our customer base is growing.
We should be going into the fourth quarter, going into the next year, we believe that we are on a good path from here on. Overall, strong quarter.
Obviously, the one-off on the positive side from LHV Bank in Estonia was a significant contributor. Having said that, the underlying trends on the net interest income side are solid.
On the fee side as well, we are making improvements, but these are long-term processes. Our product development speed is picking up.
On the UK side, landmark of reaching €1 billion of outstanding loans, clearly on the ROE and profitability side, we have a way to go, but we also have a path. Plus, just to highlight once more that we also just recently released news on appointing the new CEO to LHV UK.
We are very happy that we found very experienced person with a strong banking and fintech background, so that fits well with our plans to increase the presence on the UK market, and also somebody who can take everything that we're doing and make it work and grow even better. Asset management, steady results, and insurance, reasonably good quarter, and hopefully there will be more stability from here on.
Thank you very much, and we're open to questions.
Operator
Yeah. Thank you, Mihkel and Meelis.
There are a few questions, let's go through these. Congrats on stronger results.
Could you please elaborate a bit more on that one large customer provision release in third quarter? I understand that the provision in the amount of €3 million related to that client was made in second quarter.
What made you release it now? Was it client-specific changes or model parameters?
Meelis Paakspuu
I can cover it that Estonian news, and Estonian investor base is already knowing it, the customer, even by the name. That because it is a public news that This customer is a large dairy industry-related customer where we had made sizeable provisions over the several years that And then this customer went through the bankruptcy process, the collateral was sold in the collateral process, but it was sold with much higher value than we expected.
That outcome of that is that these payments to the bankruptcy nest is already done. The deposits are sitting in LHV Bank that so we actually see them and we know that these are used for paying first back to the banks.
That so we will receive based on today's understanding, absolutely everything back, including all these impairments what we made in the past.
Operator
Second question. I don't recall such large mark-to-market value changes during the previous interest rate cycle.
Has there been structural change in strategy on how you approach the liquidity management, change in proportions between cash at central bank deposits versus short-duration government bonds? If that is so, then why?
Meelis Paakspuu
Yes, we changed the approach that in the last and over the last approximately 10 years, we have kept the liquidity in central bank. The reason why we have started looking at it is that when we look at Western European government bonds and ECB rate difference, then there is a positive gap.
The positive gap is also from zero days to up, let's say, that yield curve is slightly upward curve most of the time, that there is a positive gain also when you are moving slightly further in the interest curve. That this was the reason why we started looking at it and then also looking that it, at the end of the day, is helping us to earn couple of million euros of additional income.
Yes, it is bringing in short-term volatility, but all in all, as the duration is only two years and the volatility is disappearing from this book very very quickly. That so we end up with earning just couple of million in addition compared to the previous approach.
Operator
The average duration is at the moment a year and a
Meelis Paakspuu
half? Year and a half is average duration, maximum.
I stated clearly that maximum is two, that we are not going beyond two years in this portfolio.
Operator
The UK bank's cost-income ratio of around 80% is clearly too high. Approximately, what loan portfolio size would the UK bank need to reach its cost-income ratio and ROE targets?
Meelis Paakspuu
Quick mathematics states that you need to have £750 million of loan portfolio to be in breakeven. That if it is so, that there is only couple of hundred million what has been delivering the profit.
That to reach, and this is ceteris paribus, that we do not know what the future brings and where the margins are moving. If we are just forecasting our lines with the current margins, then we would almost have to increase it to 2.5 to £2.7 billion.
Then it would be delivering the return on equity what would expect.
Mihkel Torim
At the same time, it's like Meelis said, one thing is you sort of fix the parameters and grow the portfolio, the other is what can we really do when it comes to cost of funding as we grow, at what stage we can do some securitization, at what stage we can lower the funding cost from the retail side, can we potentially add more products on the SME customer side, sort of day-to-day banking as well. It's a more complex formula.
Also coming back to the appointment that we made as well, we want to make sure that we have the best experience really in house to sort of take the platform that we have, and then sort of grow it to the next level while really being sort of aware of what we can do. Also the investments that we are making on, better scaling of both the portfolio of the sort of retail banking management.
We hope that these will be the sort of strong enablers that we will not just take the profitability to a market level, but we can obviously improve it and because our shareholders still have a clear expectation when it comes to ROE, but it's really a sort of management tasks to find the best way and the best path to reach that.
Operator
Could you give some insights on how successful the UK retail deposits campaign has been, and any color around the stickiness and rollover price of those deposits?
Meelis Paakspuu
We had once a slide, what showed the UK bank deposits and there was one number of 21% that 21% of deposit base is our own deposits. That same time, when we are looking at how sticky they are, then we have just acquired these deposits.
Most of them are term deposits, that their rollover time is not yet there, that Yes, there are some customers who have been rolling over, but this is not enough to make statistics. That we can answer this question properly around mid-next year.
Before that, it is guessing.
Mihkel Torim
At the same time, the question on what's the sort of focus customer, what's the total sort of product offering, we have also clearly stated that we want to be the best digital offering when it comes to savings-related services. The best signals we really have is that we have also recently won awards, which have recognized the offering.
Last year, that same award went to one of the biggest platforms that took on deposits. It's a continuous iteration of product development, sort of figuring out what the clients need, we'll be updating that with each quarter as it passes.
Operator
Next question is in two parts. Firstly about net interest margin outlook and rate sensitivity.
Net interest margin increased sharply by 25 bps quarter-on-quarter to 2.8%. What net interest margin level should we expect in fourth quarter and 2027?
Could you quantify the sensitivity of annual net interest income to a 25 bps or 100 bps increase in market rates? How quickly would this feed through to earnings, and how much would be offset by higher funding costs?
That
Meelis Paakspuu
both are actually pretty tricky questions. That I'm starting from the second side of it.
When you look at the interest income and the sensitivity, then all Estonian banks and actually Baltic banks and tend to have that almost all the assets are floating interest based, liabilities are not. Lending portfolio tends to be six months Euribor-based.
The new interest rate is kicking in within six months. Liquidity tends to be effectively function of ECB rate.
ECB rate changes are mostly kicking in within three weeks, that three to four weeks, that depending on how they're making decisions. That so asset side is kicking in very let's say, we can calculate, we can state, clearly see when the changes are happening.
On liability side, the function is much more complicated. That we have term deposits, what are longer than six months.
There when interest rates are going up, then the effect is kicking in with delays. Same time, we have shorter-term deposits and also overnight type of deposits where you have to adjust based on the market rates.
That and then you have current accounts where the pricing is depending on very much what is the current market offering on the other banks, so that it is a competition-based, that sometimes you have to pay sizable up not because that general Euribor is going up, but the competition is higher. You have long-term bonds, what most of the banks keep fixed, but some of the, even Estonian banks, who are issuing them, they tend to convert them floating.
That so all of them are part of the function. Unluckily, the outcome of the function is not linear.
That we can say that there is a positive results when we are looking year-on-year or longer term, that 100 basis points is delivering us approximately €50 million of additional income, but it is not coming directly. That it is not coming within, let's say, we can't say that if there is a change of 100 basis points today, then next month, we have €5 million of additional income.
No, it's not so. That it is not coming in linear function into the P&L.
That's only when everything is repriced, then we can see this.
Operator
Next part of the question is about UK strategy and the new CEO. Following the appointment of Damian Thompson as CEO from January 2027, should we expect any changes to LHV Bank UK's growth strategy?
Have the medium-term ambitions for loan growth, profitability, and returns changed? When should we expect the UK business to become a meaningful contributor to group earnings?
Mihkel Torim
Good question. It's true that if you look at the relevance on the asset side, it's already meaningful.
On one hand, it's going back to what Meelis already covered answering to one of the previous questions, it's really the direction. We need to have the sort of volume growth to cover the costs, to increase the profitability.
When it comes to Damian's appointment, when Erki Kilu left, the plan was that we want to find a local CEO who's sort of well-connected with the local market, who has the relevant experience, who knows SME, who knows fintech, somebody who's been working with Starling for quite some time in the sort of early days. What you can see from the track record is fast growth.
What we're thinking is fine, we have reached this, €1 billion and probably we will reach much higher profitability compared to where we are if we, let's say, take this from one to two. How would the ambition look like when we want to drive it much further, when it sort of working with potential portfolio acquisitions, working with different ways how to fund this, and then also sort of improving the retail banking side.
I don't want to sort of rush ahead when it comes to change in plans or strategy, but clearly the intention is to have higher ambition, but also making sure that we reach that ambition in a way that's supporting the group's profitability targets as well. We'll keep you updated and once Damian is fully on board, we will definitely give a longer update together with him as well on the plan and next steps.
Operator
In Estonian banking, which corporate client segments do you consider the riskiest in current economic environment, if any?
Meelis Paakspuu
The picture regarding deposits and Estonian banking system deposit growth of around 4% year-on-year, and lending growth around 10% year-on-year. That this actually gives a hints that, and the hints are stating that there are clearly deposits are not growing fast with the same speed, deposits from the corporate entities are not growing with the same speed.
That so there we see that, let's say, there is weaknesses in real estate side, that this is already seen. We see that there is an weaknesses in some of the production sides, that what could be or should be actually turned vice versa because over the last years corporates have invested less than should, and now they have lost certain amount of competitive edge, that now they need to invest and compensate for these undone investments from the previous periods.
That so I do not see that there is an loss is coming from there because the new money should go in. Also that there are clearly, as the deposit base is not growing fast enough, then when we look at everything, what is servicing retail, let's start from restaurants, that it is clearly tougher days in these sectors than they used to be.
Mihkel Torim
Just to add, I think, on the macro context, structurally when we think about Estonia, we seem to be in a more solid footing, but on the other hand, when it comes to fuel prices, when it comes to how it affects the input prices, going into the end of this year, going into the beginning of next year, there's a lot of additional inflationary pressure, which is coming from the sort of supply side. I would say that the macro is still quite fluid.
I think when it comes to the specific sectors, yeah, I think it's more like one thing is sector, the other thing is every project our lending team looks at individually, and that's, I would say, much more important in the end of the day than the sector. Because real estate as well, there can be different outcomes depending on the quality, depending on the developer or buyer, and so on.
I would say that it's more complicated than just picking one or two sectors, especially in Estonia, which is such a small economy.
Operator
Has anything changed in your dividend policy outlook recently, and can investors still expect dividend payout ratio in spring closer to 50% from your policy range 25 to 50%?
Meelis Paakspuu
We have the policy that states 25 to 50. The final decision will be made by the shareholders in March that, but based on the management knowledge and discussions with supervisory board members that we are still continuing the same approach that we are expecting to make a dividend payout on the higher end of the buffer.
Operator
Okay. This was the last question for today.
We have already gone 3 minutes past 12:00 Tallinn time, I think we can draw the line here. Thank you for all of the participants and for your questions.
Thank you, Mihkel and Meelis. See you in future meetings.
Thank you very much.
Mihkel Torim
Until next time. Thank you.
Already premium?