Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

298.40
EUR
+7.40
(+2.54%)
11.29EPS
18.68P/E
22.10BMarket Cap
Oct 30Next Earn

Q2 FY2022 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 29, 2022

Ed Tilly

Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. Before I begin, I'm pleased to officially welcome Dave Howson to the US.

He relocated to Chicago last week from London and is overseeing Cboe's business lines globally in his new role as President. We are excited to have him here today.

I'm pleased to report on another strong quarter at Cboe Global Markets. During the quarter, we achieved record-setting revenue results, growing net revenue 21% year-over-year to a record $425 million, and adjusted diluted EPS grew 21% to $1.67.

Our solid second quarter results were driven by the continued diversification of our business as we continue to integrate recent acquisitions, with strong volume in our proprietary index products, increased trading activity in our cash equities businesses, and continued growth across Data and Access Solutions business. Our Derivatives business had another excellent quarter, driven by strong performance in our index options franchise, specifically SPX options, as well as a solid increase in our multi-listed options business.

Record monthly activity in the SPX complex helped drive a 66% increase in average daily volume for the quarter, while VIX futures were up 7% and VIX options remained flat. Multi-listed options trading ADV increased 12% year-over-year.

Our Cash and Spot Markets business performed remarkably well during the second quarter, with net revenue increasing 7%, including 3% organic net revenue growth year-over-year. These results were driven by exceptionally strong performance in our European equities segment, where average daily notional value traded was up 49% year-over-year.

Additionally, Cboe European Equities market share increased nearly 6 percentage points year-over-year to 23.2%. Similar trends we saw last quarter, these results reflect not just a favorable market backdrop, but the implementation of an analytics-driven campaign by our sales team to help clients achieve better results on Cboe Europe than is achievable on other venues.

Our Data and Access Solutions business remained strong, with the integration of our recent acquisitions continuing to fuel the durability of this business. Year-over-year net revenue increased 20%, with 14% organic net revenue growth.

We continue to remain focused on executing on the significant opportunities we see in three core areas of our business: Data and Access Solutions, Derivatives, and Cboe Digital. During the quarter, we made solid progress advancing each of these priorities, including closing the acquisition of ErisX on May 2nd.

While the digital asset market environment has changed dramatically since we closed the ErisX transaction, which resulted in the accounting adjustment that Brian will discuss in more detail, our strategy has not changed. We remain excited by the compelling strategic opportunity for Cboe in the digital asset space.

We believe the long-term opportunity within the digital asset space will continue to evolve. Now, more than ever, market participants want a trusted, transparent, regulated market for digital assets, which is foundational to our strategy for this asset class.

We are continuing to work closely with our partner group and expect to announce equity partners soon as we shape and define the future of Cboe Digital and the broader industry. Turning now to Derivatives, where our SPX franchise continued to flourish as we expanded across to customers to meet increased demand, both on and off the trading floor.

With market uncertainty and heightened volatility continuing across the globe, market participants turn to Cboe's derivatives and volatility products to help manage risk. Many of our newer initiatives, like the extension of trading hours for SPX and VIX options to nearly 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, and the addition of Tuesday and Thursday expirations for SPX weekly options, have outperformed our early expectations in 2022, further accelerating the strong growth across our core business.

Since adding Tuesday and Thursday expirations for SPX weekly options this spring, our initial estimates indicate we've added an average of over 200,000 incremental SPX contracts per day, reinforcing the trend we have seen of customers embracing shorter duration trading strategies. The expansion of our SPX weeklies complex to include expiries every trading day has helped meet this customer demand.

ADV in SPX contracts with 0 days to expiration increased 120% since the start of 2021, with retail brokerage platforms accounting for over 80% of the volumes. Additionally, during global trading hours, average daily volume in SPX options increased 189% year-over-year, VIX options increased 49%, and VIX futures volumes increased 19%.

Global customers want access to tools to manage risk, and we continue to focus on expanding upon our core strength and finding new ways to deliver access to meet their needs. We continue to believe strongly in the durability of our Data and Access Solutions business going forward as we continue to integrate our recently acquired businesses and strive to further unlock value and revenue opportunities.

Brian will expand on this later in the call, but we are updating our 2022 organic net revenue growth expectations for this business to a range of 10% to 13%, up from our prior guidance range of 8% to 11%. The record results during the quarter were driven by continued demand for access to our global exchange network, Cboe's front-end platforms, and proprietary market data.

Since the first quarter 2021, we have averaged 19% year-over-year growth, and as we continue to integrate and innovate, we believe there is more total addressable market to capture across trading, data, and products, and we're well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities through our Data and Access Solutions group. Three important areas of expansion we're excited about include distribution as a service, which leverages Cboe's expansive network to provide data streaming services for vendors and partners; bundled data, which allows us to package high-quality data from across markets to deliver consistent and cost-effective data solutions to customers; and Cboe's cloud strategy, which further extends Cboe's data to new users and geographies, an important step towards broadening investor access to our proprietary content and market data globally.

The last several years have been very exciting as we've evolved our business, broadened our geographic reach, and extended access to our unique set of products and services around the globe. Today, we are the only truly global market infrastructure provider operating markets and delivering services around the world and around the clock every day of the week.

Around the globe, we've continued to see strong performance in all geographies and asset classes. Starting with our Global FX business, we saw strong volumes with average daily notional volume topping $39.6 billion during the second quarter, with market share of 17%.

We also saw our full amount offering, which provides clients with a solution for larger order risk transfers with low market impact, reach a new record of $11.8 billion ADV in the second quarter. We're also very encouraged by our product diversification strategy.

In particular, our higher margin NDF offering, where we saw a 200% year-over-year increase to $785 million ADV. With continued rising inflation and interest rates, we continue to be bullish on the opportunities that exist for our FX business.

Turning now to Europe, in addition to the strong results I noted earlier for our European Equities business, Cboe Bids Europe became the number one block trading platform with a record 33% market share of the European block trading market. Additionally, EuroCCP, our European clearing business, saw steady growth this quarter.

We also continue to make progress on our European derivatives initiative, and while early volume trends have been softer than we expected due to geopolitical events in Europe delaying customer onboarding timetables, we still believe strongly in the long-term strategy and the vision for this business. Moving to Asia Pacific, Cboe Japan market share increased to 3.5%, up from 2.5% 1 year ago, as the new liquidity provider program introduced earlier this year continued to attract volume.

In Australia, market share grew to 17% from 16% year-over-year, and we are on track to migrate Cboe Australia to our proprietary technology in February 2023. Finally, in North America, we completed the acquisition of NEO last month, bolstering our market share in Canada and expanding our listings business globally.

Our overall market share in Canada now tops 12.1%, including both NEO and MATCHNow, and we are working on integration plans that will help enable us to maximize the opportunities we see for our global equities and listing businesses. Our geographic and asset class diversification, coupled with our unique product set, enables us to meet the needs of an increasingly diverse set of customers around the world.

Our global scale gives us the unmatched ability to efficiently scale and expand our business in new ways. With the closing of the acquisitions of ErisX and NEO in the second quarter, the entire Cboe team remains focused on extracting even greater value from the ecosystem we have created, integrating our platforms, and positioning Cboe for its next wave of growth in the quarters ahead.

We've acquired nine companies in the last 2 years, and we remain laser-focused on the various stages of integration for each of these companies. Each of these companies has brought a unique offering to Cboe and helped us achieve a greater global breadth of services and products, as well as new distribution channels.

As we stated before, we approach the integration of technology and teams holistically, avoiding silos while maximizing synergies, both revenue and cost. This approach creates workflow efficiencies for customers, harmonizing technology and access points, creating a better experience for them.

As we continue to architect our business for the future, our strategy remains focused on delivering products and services that create short, medium, and long-term opportunities, helping to enable a cadence of consistent growth. We are excited to have unannounced acquisitions closed and integration efforts well underway, which is creating strong momentum for our flywheel as we head into the second half of the year.

With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

Brian Schell

Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. Let me remind everyone that unless specifically noted, my comments relate to 2Q '22 as compared to 2Q '21 and are based on our non-GAAP adjusted results.

As Ed discussed, the first half of 2022 was an exceptionally strong one for Cboe. In the second quarter, adjusted diluted earnings per share was up 21% on a year-over-year basis to $1.67.

A combination of continued investment across our businesses and a favorable operating environment continued to propel revenue above last quarter's record levels. Quickly touching on some of the noteworthy takeaways from the second quarter: Our net revenue increased 21%, setting yet another quarterly record at $424 million, led by the strength in our Derivatives Markets and Data and Access Solutions categories.

I would like to note that not only did each of our revenue categories, Derivatives, D&A, and Cash, post a year-over-year gain, but every segment at Cboe, from Options to FX, posted a year-over-year increase, speaking to the diversity and truly broad-based strength in the second quarter results. Derivatives Markets produced 30% year-over-year organic net revenue growth in the second quarter, given the continued strength of our index business.

Data and Access Solutions net revenues were up 20%, up 14% on an organic basis, driven again by strong new subscription and unit growth. Cash and Spot Markets produced 7% net revenue growth for the quarter, up 3% on an organic basis on the back of strong volumes and market share in our European cash equities business.

Adjusted operating expenses increased 22% to $157 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $274 million was up 17%.

Last, our adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.67, up 21% compared to last year's quarterly results. Before getting into the segment results, I want to spend a moment walking through the accounting adjustment we made this quarter for ErisX.

As Ed mentioned, we closed the ErisX transaction on May 2nd. The environment has changed dramatically.

Given the observable, publicly traded peer valuations, digital asset prices, and intermediary dislocations, we felt it necessary to reassess our holding value of ErisX. As a result of our analysis, along with the work of our third-party auditors and consultants, we booked a goodwill impairment of approximately $460 million, effectively writing goodwill in ErisX to zero, and recorded a deferred tax asset of approximately $116 million.

Our book carrying value at June 30th is $220 million, reflecting the sum of tangible and intangible assets of approximately $104 million and the deferred tax asset. We believe that our adjustment reflects the reality of the digital asset market environment today, but in no way changes our commitment to the digital asset space or what we set out to do when we announced this transaction back in October.

In fact, recent events only underscore the strong need for a transparent and trusted trading, clearing, and data venue for digital assets. We believe that Cboe, along with the help of industry partners, is best positioned to provide these solutions.

Turning to the key drivers by segment: Our press release and the appendix of our slide deck include information detailing the key metrics for each of our business segments, I'll just provide summary thoughts. As mentioned earlier, we saw impressive year-over-year growth in each of our segments during the quarter.

Options delivered the strongest growth, with net revenue growing by 32%, driven by higher trading volume in both proprietary and multiply-listed options, better market share, as well as higher revenue per contract in index options. Total options ADV was up 18%, as our higher-priced index options ADV increased 46%.

Revenue per contract moved 21% higher, given a continued positive mix shift to index products and a stronger mix of higher-priced SPX options in our index business. Lastly, we continued to benefit from another quarter of double-digit growth in market data and access and capacity fees, each up 29%, respectively.

North American Equities net revenue increased by 4% year-over-year. Solid industry volumes, up 20%, helped drive the segment uptick.

On the non-transaction side, access and capacity fees increased 15%, and proprietary market data was up 8%. The Europe and APAC segment reported solid growth for the quarter, with net revenue up 20%.

The increase was driven by higher volumes in Europe and the inclusion of Cboe Asia Pacific revenues of $8.2 million. Net transaction fee growth was 18%.

During the quarter, FX rates were a headwind for the segment, impacting reported net revenue growth by nearly $4 million, or 7%. Transaction fees were led higher by Cboe Europe's equity ADV increasing 49% year-over-year, given very strong industry volume growth and a nearly 6 percentage point increase in market share.

Clearing fees benefited from an increase in clearing volumes of 21%. Second quarter net revenue increased 8% in the Futures segment, as both transaction and non-transaction revenue posted year-over-year gains for the quarter.

Volumes and rate per contract metrics were slightly better on a year-over-year basis. On the non-transaction side, access and capacity fees were up 21%, and market data grew 24% as compared to the second quarter of 2021.

Finally, net revenues in the FX segment were up 20%. Net transaction and clearing fees benefited from a 22% increase in average daily notional value, as well as continued favorable market share trends.

As Ed noted earlier, Cboe's Data and Access Solutions net revenue growth has continued to accelerate, posting 20% year-over-year increase and an attractive 14% growth rate on an organic basis. Again, this strong growth was primarily driven by additional subscriptions and units, accounting for three-quarters of the year-over-year revenue increase, as opposed to pricing changes.

More specifically, we saw robust physical and logical port usage in our options and equities businesses, driven by increased demand for trading capacity. On the market data side, the equities top of book and options depth of book products continue to perform well.

As we look out over the remainder of 2022, we anticipate trends will remain healthy in the Data and Access Solutions business. We are raising our targeted 2022 D&A organic net revenue growth rate to a range of 10% to 13%, up from 8% to 11% and above the 7% to 10% medium-term guidance range we outlined at our November Investor Day.

Turning to expenses: Total adjusted operating expenses were approximately $157 million for the quarter, up 22% compared to last year. Excluding the impact of acquisitions owned less than a year, adjusted operating expenses were up 12%, or $15 million, for the quarter.

Moving to our expense guidance: We are increasing our full year 2022 expense guidance range to $659 to $667 million, up from our prior guidance of $647 to $660 million when including the acquisitions of ErisX and NEO. The increase is almost exclusively driven by higher incentive compensation as a result of our strong financial performance through the first half of this year, coupled with a positive outlook for the second half of 2022.

We have long talked about Cboe's pay-for-performance culture, and our adjustments today reflect the outstanding work our entire associate base has done in driving outsized growth. While our operating expenses are moving higher with revenues, we continue to expect $23 to $26 million of the 2022 investment spend to directly drive incremental revenue growth, and that approximately $10 million is needed for infrastructure enhancements to support and scale our business for greater levels of activity in the future.

Overall, our updated 2022 expense guidance reflects our commitment to invest in high-conviction growth opportunities, as well as to attract and retain best-in-class talent driving our strong results. Now turning to a summary of full year guidance on the next slide: I want to call out some of the positive updates to our revenue targets that are reflected in our expense updates.

As noted previously, we now anticipate D&A organic net revenue growth in 2022 will be in the 10% to 13% range, up from our prior guidance range of 8% to 11% and our medium-term guidance of 7% to 10%. We continue to expect acquisitions held less than a year to contribute between 2 to 3 percentage points to total net revenue growth in 2022.

Lastly, but certainly not least, our overall organic net revenue growth target is moving higher to 9% to 11%, up from our prior guidance of 5% to 7% for 2022. We believe our updated revenue guidance reflects not only the strong year-to-date results we have posted, but the confidence we have in the business moving forward.

We are seeing a solid contribution from all of our operating segments, strengthening the broader ecosystem here at Cboe. Our full year guidance on depreciation and amortization, capex, and our effective tax rate on adjusted earnings under the current tax laws remain unchanged.

Our interest expense for the second quarter of 2022 was $14.6 million. Factoring in the incremental borrowing costs related to the financing put in place for ErisX and NEO, we expect interest expense to be in the range of $16 to $17 million for 3Q '22.

On the capital front, our focus has been and remains maximizing shareholder value through the effective use of our capital. In the second quarter, we returned a total of $67 million to shareholders, comprised of $51 million in dividend payments and $16 million in share repurchases.

We remain well positioned to invest in the business, support our dividend, and opportunistically repurchase shares, with $233 million in remaining capacity on our share repurchase authorization. Our leverage ratio increased in the second quarter to 1.9 times, up from 1.6 times at June 30th, as our debt levels increased related to the funding of our NEO and ErisX transactions.

Overall, we remain committed to maintaining a flexible balance sheet and putting capital to work in the most value-enhancing way possible for shareholders. In summary, Cboe reported an excellent second quarter.

Our core business performed exceptionally well, and we are excited about our numerous short, medium, and long-term investments. We look forward to continuing to deliver durable growth for investors in the quarters ahead.

Now, I'd like to turn it back over to Ed for some closing comments before we open it up to Q&A.

Ed Tilly

Thank you, Brian. Before I close, I wanted to highlight our 2022 ESG report, which was published last month.

This report covers the important progress we've made on our environmental, social, and governance initiatives, including our commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, an exciting endeavor designed to help ensure Cboe does its part to help combat climate change. I want to thank the entire Cboe team and our customers for another great quarter.

I couldn't be more excited about the progress we continue to make, and I believe we are well positioned to continue to innovate, integrate, and grow as we head into the second half of the year.

Brian Schell

At this point, we'd be happy to take questions. We ask that you please limit your questions to one per person to allow time to get to everyone.

Feel free to get back in the queue, and if time permits, we'll take a second question.

Operator

Yes, thank you. As mentioned, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster.

This morning's first question comes from Rich Repetto with Piper Sandler.

Rich Repetto

Good morning, Ed. Good morning, Brian and team.

Ed, I think I'll focus on the SPX complex, because you've seen such strong results there, and thanks for all the detail. I guess the question is, we've seen a pull back, it seems like retail is driving a good portion of it as well as your own innovation with the weekly contracts and volatility, but I guess, with the year-to-date run versus last year, the index options running 30% up.

I guess the question is around the resilience and whether retail you think is going to be sticky enough going forward, because we've seen in other products, we've seen retail retract, but we haven't seen it in index options here, I guess. Comments on the index options is the question, and thanks.

Ed Tilly

Gotcha. Thanks, Rich.

Good setup. It's really a continuation of the entire year.

If you'll recall from the last quarter, we called out that options really look relatively cheap. What we mean by that is the movements in the S&P 500, what they're realizing, the daily move in excess of 1%.

We look at implied volatility, what the price of those options are, they're relatively cheap. There's a lot of attention, both institutional and retail platforms, looking at that complex and finding great opportunity.

You call out exactly the lift that we've seen after adding Tuesdays and Thursdays. That interest is coming from retail platforms that appears to be sustainable.

What I mean by that is even in the days where the realized movement of the S&P 500 is less than that 1%, volume doesn't really track and doesn't fall off much. We like what we're seeing as the daily interest is building, and we see that continuing, obviously past the quarter that we've just reported, into July for sure.

See no sign of letting up. I think we're learning a lot from adding dailies, and as I called out in the prepared remarks, to the tune of a couple hundred thousand contracts a day additive in the complex.

Those are all good signs for us. I think for now, in this environment, we look out over the volatility term structure, the market's telling us this uncertainty will continue, and we think no reason to think that the interest from retail platforms won't continue.

Super short-dated options still in favor, and adding those dailies really has met the demand for that exposure. We expect that to continue on.

Thanks, Rich.

Rich Repetto

Great. Thanks, Ed.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Ken Worthington with J.P.

Morgan.

Ken Worthington

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the question.

In terms of the European index options business, a couple of questions. Maybe to set the stage, what is the level of open interest that you reached during the quarter?

Then as we think about the target client in the early days of the build-out here, where do you think you might have the greatest success, and where are you focused? Then for management to consider this initiative successful and for you to continue to invest here, what are you hoping to see in terms of the volume and open interest levels over, I don't know, the next year or pick your time frame, but what is the ramp that you continue to expect to keep you engaged here?

Thank you.

David Howson

Hi, Ken. This is David Howson.

Thanks very much for the question there. Throughout the quarter, we had a few interesting results as we continue to execute on the plan.

Those geopolitical results did impact some of the speed of the onboarding and alter our expectations a little. However, we launched eight new products across four country benchmarks.

The open interest that you mentioned there peaked at 28% higher during the quarter compared to the prior quarter. We also saw options volume at 67% up for the quarter for quarter as well.

In terms of the plan, we continue to execute on that. We do see the realization of what we call success there in our guide coming a year later than previously stated.

However, for us, success continues to be onboarding of new clients, increased pricing picture in the futures and the options contracts. As we said right at the start here, this is a journey rather than an event as we build a brand-new platform with brand-new trading and clearing here.

We continue to be convinced by the opportunity set and the value proposition here as we build out over the next coming years.

Ken Worthington

Okay. What is the level of open interest?

You keep quoting growth, but are we talking small numbers or is it big numbers? What is the contract level?

David Howson

That's right. It's early days.

Just over 1,500 contracts open interest for the complex was the peak.

Ken Worthington

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Gautam Sawant with Credit Suisse.

Gautam Sawant

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Can you please walk through where the strongest demand for D&A is coming from?

What is the initial feedback that you're getting from institutions in response to bundling global data and connectivity? Just to touch base a little bit further, you recently announced the partnership with Snowflake.

Can you walk us through how that partnership will enhance analytics, and if you expect that to generate future expense savings by moving to the cloud from your current on-premise systems?

Brian Schell

Thanks for the question. I'll kick that off with the first half of that, and then I'll turn it over to Chris to talk about the Snowflake question separately.

Again, this is a continued really strong story that we've seen going back into really last year and even before that. Again, we're continuing to see the upside of the higher volumes, areas like the logical ports, physical connectivity, just overall broader access, that we're continuing to see clients ramp up their access, new clients wanting access as they continue to see the, I'll call it, the global network build.

In particular, where we're seeing is on the market data side, which is obviously part of that, is you asked specifically question of where we're seeing that demand. If we look at that, where's the composition of that incremental growth, what we're seeing is increasing demand for the US data primarily coming from international participants.

Of the growth that we had, 60% was outside the US. Of that growth, that broader pool of that 60%, 44% was EMEA, 16% was APAC, that makes up that 60%.

We're continuing to see that strength of that demand for the data. We don't see any reason why that's going to change.

Actually, as we look at our pipeline, and we look at our future growth prospects going out into the years, is as we continue to build the networks in those countries, we only see the opportunity for success and leveraging that network for not only those organic sales of that market data, but also, again, the broader network. Which then lays into your next question about that opportunity to bundle.

A lot of our client base is global. They do like that global network and being able to leverage into the Cboe system and that consistency of data and the technology that we're building out over time.

We see opportunities to bundle geographic. We see opportunities different asset classes that we're continuing to explore, again, across that entire network.

That's really driving the optimism and the actual results that we see today. I think I hit your questions, and with that, I'll turn it over to Chris.

Chris Isaacson

Thanks, Brian. Thanks for the question.

Good question. On the Snowflake part of that question, we announced this partnership with Snowflake.

This is regarding an internal data analytics platform that we'd built over the last couple years. We'd actually mentioned on one of these calls, one or two of these calls a few years ago.

We've learned so much there, and we've started to use that and provide better insights for our customers. The results of that can be seen with the European market share and how we're providing better insights, execution consulting.

This scales that effort globally, allows us to bring in all of our global businesses and provide better insights to our customers so they can trade better on all of our global markets. Excited about this partnership with Snowflake, which is separate and distinct from Cboe Global Cloud, but part of our overall global cloud strategy as we scale our platforms to meet the needs of our global business.

John Deters

This is John. Just want to follow up to both of those, Brian and Chris's points.

It's worth noting that, as we think about the M&A we've done recently to expand globally, there are, obviously multiple layers of benefit there. First layer is intrinsic, the organic growth within each platform.

Second layer is technology integration, a consistent, seamless network that we provide our global customers. Then another layer is the global cross-sell.

We've obviously been in COVID environment for 2 years. Members of our exec team, there are certain offices we're just traveling to now.

We're seeing the beginnings of those fruits of the cross-sell effort and the global network integration, and to be sure, given where we are in the travel cycle, that is probably in early phases.

Gautam Sawant

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS.

Alex Kramm

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just wanted to touch base on the two recent acquisitions.

One, I think originally hadn't disclosed the purchase prices, but they're obviously in the Q, I think. Can you, one, actually review kind of the revenue contribution and where that all flows?

Then also, given the ErisX situation, you made those comments that you're still excited about the acquisition and the opportunity set there. Obviously, you spent almost $500 million on this.

I know it's less than 5% of your market cap, but close to it. Now you're writing this whole thing down.

Just wondering how we should be thinking about returns on that acquisition relative to maybe buybacks that you could have done. I know this is fresh and new and it's a new asset class, but it just seems like it's somewhat material of what we've seen so far.

Just wanted to make sure that, as you've been very acquisitive, that there's return hurdles as you approach these new opportunities. Thank you.

Brian Schell

Sure. Alex, I'll take NEO briefly, and then to the ErisX.

Because I also want to bring in Chris as well on this and as well as the team can chime in. On the NEO, as we look at that return, which you didn't highlight, but right now, that is going better than actually planned, slightly better than planned, and it's already contributing, although relatively small, to our overall contribution.

It is accretive already day one. Again, continue to be excited about continue to measure that positive ROI.

We've stated out there about a 10% hurdle rate that we have when we build our business cases, looking for what it can contribute organically, and then continue to add revenue synergies broadly across the organization. Going specifically to the Eris transaction, fundamentally, nothing has changed as far as what we see the contribution of what this platform does for us and where we see this market going.

Granted, as we disclosed, and you'll see this disclosure if you had a chance to see the Q, is that the external environment did change, but it actually just reinforces where we actually think we're going. The specifics on the financials, the adjustment was about 60%.

Here, when you talk about the near total write-off, that's just the intangible part of it. You've got to look at the total net book value.

It's about 60%. Again, not that that's something to brag about, but that is reflective of what we think the value is at this point in time, given the external environment.

Again, our job is to make sure our financial statements fairly represent our view of our performance and what that looks like overall. That's the overall perspective.

Back to the press release when we initially announced the acquisition of ErisX, we put a 2 to 3-year time frame on a positive contribution to EBITDA at the end of the day. Again, nothing has changed, absent, albeit not small, this adjustment to fair value as far as that we've recorded today.

With that, then I'll turn it over to Chris to talk a little bit more about kind of, again, where we think this is headed.

Chris Isaacson

Good morning, Alex. Good question.

As Brian mentioned, our strategy is unchanged, our excitement for this asset class is unchanged. There's obviously been a fundamental repricing in this asset class, but we think that actually provides a strategic tailwind for us with trusted, transparent, regulated markets.

Just remind you that, with ErisX, we have a great foundation to build upon with exchange, clearing, data, and derivatives. Our roadmap includes margin futures, physically settled futures, and that roadmap is the same now.

We're committed to this asset class. We obviously had to recognize that the asset class is fundamentally been repriced, which is what we've done.

We're committed to it and excited about the future.

John Deters

Briefly, this is John. I want to weigh in on what we're hearing from the market, because it's important.

We've told the Street that we're out there talking to potential partners on this project. What we're hearing from them is they see the demand.

We hear that from them. We trust them.

These are largely intermediaries. It's an intermediary-focused initiative.

Those intermediaries touch, we estimate over 80% of the traditional asset volume for retail customers. They have a good line of sight.

What you see in the data in terms of volumes is that if you take cryptocurrency as a whole, and you look at 2021 as a bit of an anomalous year, we're looking at going back 50% CAGRs to 2020. That still remains a robust growth rate.

They're in this for the long haul, these partners. They're asking us questions like, where can I trade in a framework that has robust coin listing risk parameters?

Where can I trade in a framework that is unconflicted, where pricing is reliable and not manufactured to create elevated spreads? They're asking, where can I trade in a framework where there isn't hidden, dangerous leverage?

Those are things that we're all offering. It's reasonable to think that over the medium term, we garner our fair share of the market.

Chris Isaacson

All right. Thanks again.

A lot of great color.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell

Great. Thanks.

Good morning, folks. Maybe just also on ErisX and NEO, but actually more on NEO and the Canadian game plan.

One quick just detail, NEO is tracking better than expected, and does the guidance still stand that you expect the revenue contribution to offset more than half of the expenses in '22, the $30 to $35 million? Then also the outlook on the EBITDA positive on a combined basis, does that still stand?

Then the second attached question is the NEO strategy in Canada, if you can elaborate a little bit more of what that looks like. You have around a, if I'm calculating it right, a 12% to 13% market share combined with MATCHNow in trading volume in Canada.

Maybe you could just dissect a little bit the trading strategy versus, I think, there's also a small listing strategy there as well.

Brian Schell

Thanks, Brian. Bottom line, we have not changed that perspective as far as the contribution.

Short answer. With that, I'll turn it to Dave as far as kind of the outlook, the kind of the business strategy to go forward

David Howson

with. Thanks very much, Brian.

To dissect it nicely as you did between trading and listings strategies, because the listing strategy goes global, as does the opportunity in trading with Canada. Canada in general, we think about it combined with the MATCHNow footprint that we already have there.

That's the Bids migration or rollout that we had earlier on in the year, along with MATCHNow, bringing global client base. We've seen new international clients really come into the Canadian marketplace in the block space, very encouraging there.

Then in general, in terms of the order books, the more vanilla order book trading protocols, we see really nice opportunities there for further feature enhancements as we look across our franchise globally. What we find useful for customers will be brought in time to the Canadian landscape.

Then also with pricing, we have pricing levers to pull there, along with the general data and analytics that we've talked about to do the pricing and analytics to really talk to customers about what we can do there in terms of the order book qualities. To listings, then we've got really interesting opportunities.

We've now got today over 241 listings in Canada itself, 168 ETPs, three new Vanguard ETFs this quarter, really great progress. 55 corporates, really focused on the innovation economy.

Now think about that as a global strategy when we think about Australia winning 30% of ETP listings there, same story in the US. We can actually begin to go to issuers and capital raises with a global offering.

Really, that's how we're going to be thinking through our strategy as we go forward and really present that to yourselves, customers, and the marketplace.

Brian Bedell

That sounds exciting. Is there a stronger revenue growth outlook over the long term as a result of this strategy, given it's starting to track in better than expected as well?

Ed Tilly

I'll chime in here a little bit, is that I would say, obviously, we think there's an opportunity, as we continue to put that in place, as we continue to look at revenue synergies. I think with respect, as we look at the overall Cboe network, I think Bids is becoming an increasingly important component as far as we're seeing early wins and successes.

Dave, I don't know if you want to talk a little bit more about that as well.

David Howson

As I mentioned earlier on in my answer, the Bids rollout earlier this year sees great early traction, but particularly to point to the addition of new customers in Europe really wanting to trade US and Canada. In fact, as we think about the rollout of Bids again in Australia in February next year, we've seen early onboards from those superannuation funds really coming to us to say, "Hey, we want to onboard now to trade what you've got because we know you're coming to Australia and we want to be ready for that."

We see that across the slate, really, with the intermediaries there coming to us early on to get involved with that replatforming we're doing in Australia in February next year.

Ed Tilly

It's worth a quick note on the coverage, again, to the span that we've now got in place. Our markets cover something like 80% of global GDP and over 90% of developed market GDP.

Bids is a really unique way to tie together those trading opportunities across all those markets. There is no competitor that offers that span of services to the trading community.

Brian Bedell

That's all great color. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

Owen Lau

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I actually have a broader-based question.

I guess the stock was resilient compared to the broader market in the first half of this year. For the second half, could you please talk about your outlook of economy and how investors should think about volatility, your organic growth in D&A, and also your international expansion, and how Cboe can still grow in the second half of this year?

Thank you.

Ed Tilly

Let me start with the broader trading environment. We're just informed, Owen, by the volatility term structure and how our customers are pricing risk over time.

The elevation in the back months still say that there is risk in the marketplace. For us, that continues to be trading opportunity, positioning opportunity, and really positioning around the broader economic drivers in not just the US market, but the global market.

We are informed by that volatility surface and don't see much changing in the short term, meaning continued growth and adoption and engagement in the SPX complex. In particular, we'll be watching and learning how we can continue to roll out contracts that meet the demand of investors.

In this case, the growth has come from retail platforms. A lot of effort and concentration on that adoption of super short-dated, the utility.

From there, hopefully we'll be able to teach and broaden the base of users and adoption. Then I'll turn over to Brian for a little bit more color.

Brian Schell

I would I want to remind folks that when we kind of came into the year, and and it's a continuation of last year, is the organic investments that we were making to set up, the the potential for this organic growth. With respect to the incremental investments we're making around, the ability to deliver D&A and data through the cloud, what we've done around enabling greater, trading environment with 24x5, Tuesday, Thursday launch, the incremental marketing and branding, the Nanos launch, EU derivatives, and and a lot of those we've talked about.

That investment is, again, you're starting to see that pay off both in terms of people on the marketing and the sales and what we're doing. Specifically about, the D&A element and what you asked about, right, is is, again, we're continuing to see that stickiness, the quality of the access, the quality of the market data that that we're getting and being able to offer, again, across all asset classes.

It's not just in one. Obviously, there's higher contribution within the Derivatives franchise, given the the size and and our placement there.

Again, the confidence in continuing to deliver that growth, you'll see the forecast is slightly lower as far as the outlook than in the first half. We are going against higher comps from last year.

We had great third-quarter third quarter and fourth quarter growth rates in D&A last year. Again, we're still confident in our continued growth.

Again, the the comparison is going to be a little bit higher, but but we're up for the challenge. As far as those initiatives, right, we talked about distribution as a service.

You saw the recent announcement around Morningstar and being able to leverage our existing network. We're excited about packaging our global content, again, across geographies and asset classes.

Then John had mentioned earlier, again, is that organic opportunity just within, say, for example, within Australia and Japan and our recent entry there and with in Canada. Those items are really continue to, again, give us confidence about the growth rate as we head into the rest of this year and then, obviously, a conviction around the medium to longer-term growth opportunity of D&A.

David Howson

If I may there, just a quick chime in on another global asset class, really, the Cboe FX business had a good quarter in this environment. Volume activity is high.

Also in terms of extensions into a new asset class, we expect in the latter half of this year to see UST, US Treasuries, go live. We received FINRA approval, and we have onboarding of customers coming on into the latter part of this year.

Ed Tilly

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

Michael Cyprys

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

You guys have added the new Tuesday, Thursday expiries, but I was hoping you could comment on what other types of contracts you guys might be able to introduce. Then more broadly, as you look at your business and the industry, what would you say is left to convert in terms of activity from OTC to exchange-traded products, and how might you size that longer-term opportunity set versus more near term?

Thank you.

Ed Tilly

I think what we're learning from Tuesday, Thursday and what we should be contemplating is in cash-settled derivatives, which are really in vogue in the super short-dated, the possible expansion of our smaller contracts like XSP, which is 1/10th, and our Nano contract, which is just getting early adoption as further adoption from retail platforms. Fidelity, for example, just came online, which is a good move for us as we roll out strategies that have historically been institutional-based and, of course, now for retail platforms' interest in the 500.

The Nano was really designed for the early retail adopter and retail platforms for exposure in the broader market and giving them the same access to the S&P 500. We're in early days on the Nano contract, and I think a reinvigoration of an XSP, which is, as I said, 1/10th SPX.

I like that, and I like continuing to look at how to expand Tuesday, Thursday into contracts that are more retail focused. I think that's what you should see us.

As far as the OTC, really the opportunity would be in the volatility complex, where OTC tends to be notionally roughly the same size. We say roughly the same size as what you see trading listed.

That conversion, we have to look at sensitivities around the execution costs trading listed versus the risk of trading bilaterally or clearing bilaterally off exchange. A lot of work to do in the opportunity set around OTC and VIX, but I wouldn't say as much in SPX.

Michael Cyprys

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Kyle Voigt with KBW.

Kyle Voigt

Hi, good morning. Maybe just a follow-up question on SPX.

Just wondering now, what percentage of that overall complex do you believe is being driven by retail today? I always thought of that as being far more driven by institutional flow than retail.

If institutions are still the primary users there, also, do you have any insights on which types of institutional users have driven this kind of recent surge in volumes we've seen over the last three quarters or so, whether that's equity asset managers or options-specific funds or other types of institutional users?

Ed Tilly

It's a great question. I want to be really careful when we choose our words.

You'll note that I say retail platforms, and don't necessarily mean that that is a retail trader on a retail platform. There are pros coming through retail platforms, many times in algorithms.

I would expect a great many of the daily expiry growth is algos loving the short-dated exposure. In a market that's moving, as I say, implied move of roughly 1% a day, terrific opportunity.

The growth from retail platforms in the single-day and

Brian Schell

the participation is in the 80s. Really, really high concentration retail platform in those weekly options.

Third Friday continues to be traditionally more broad market greater position hedging as similar to what we see in the VIX complex. Really adoption in those weeklies, that big growth coming from retail platforms.

Operator

Okay. Thank you.

The next question is a follow-up from Rich Repetto with Piper Sandler.

Rich Repetto

Hi, guys. I've been sort of looking at the expense side of it in more detail.

I know you had $12 million this quarter, Brian, for increase or for incentive comp. I guess the question is, I think the base is $553 from last year and that's incorporating the 2021 expenses.

If you look at everything except for the acquisitions this year, it looks like about a 14% increase between the core enhancements, revenue enhancements, infrastructure, and incentive. We had 14% ex-acquisitions, and I'm just trying to see if that's right.

It looks like the consensus revenue estimate right now is up 13%. Do you think analysts aren't picking up the revenue enhancements, or that you get 23 to I think $26 million built in for that?

Yeah.

Brian Schell

I'm not sure I completely followed the expense math, but we can kind of take that offline to make sure as far as the percentages go. I think the thing to focus on is that, at least when we are pulling in some of the acquisitions onto the revenue and the expense line items, obviously, some of the financial statements don't quite have the same margin.

There's going to be a little bit of a slightly higher growth rate on the expenses, again, to see over here, given that size. Again, we're managing that, and we obviously with plans to continue to grow that top line, obviously, faster than the short line.

No great surprise there. As far as picking up the expenses, we try to provide that guidance, and that visibility along the way.

If you just look at excluding the acquisitions and you look at kind of that 2Q run rate and you annualize that 2Q run rate relative to what we've forecasted at the end of the day, there's really not a significant growth rate that we haven't already factored into that projection. Again, just to make sure we're clear on that $12 million as far as the increment, that's a full year.

It's not just this first half of the year. Again, that's a full year perspective as far as what we've done in some of the expectations to build into that entire forecast.

Rich Repetto

Yeah. I guess to make it simpler, if you just take your expense guidance of $659 to $667, subtract NEO, the $30 to $35, the increases ex-NEO and Eris are about 14%, I guess.

The expense increases ex-acquisitions appear to be a 14% if I'm doing my math right.

Brian Schell

Sure. Sorry.

Yeah. Part of that growth also includes the run rate of the Chi-X transactions from the prior year as well, which is, I'll call it, making that number higher than say a pure organic expense growth rate.

Rich Repetto

I thought the $553 base included the normalized 2021 for expenses for the acquisition. I could be wrong on that.

Okay. I'm good.

We can talk offline on this.

Brian Schell

All right. Good.

That way we can just get on the same page there. Thanks, Rich.

Operator

Thank you. We also have a follow-up from Gautam Sawant with Credit Suisse.

Gautam Sawant

Hey, just two quick questions here. One follow-up was just on the revenue outlook for the acquisitions this year.

I think you had previously talked about the 50%. I didn't know if you provided an update or I missed it on just what expectations are for the revenue contribution this year relative to expenses.

Brian Schell

We didn't actually frame it relative to expenses. It was more of that transaction.

We have said that we expect to add 2% to 3% incremental revenue growth.

Gautam Sawant

Okay. Got it.

Then just one more on the European business. As we look at the market share in cash equities there, it has a very positive trajectory.

Can you please expand on some of the key factors that are helping the platform compete with some of the incumbent exchanges in that region? Then where you think the market share could potentially settle out in the future?

Then also, what data points is the sales team going out with to these institutions to get them to choose Cboe and route their trading volume to the platform? Thank you.

David Howson

Great. Thanks very much for the question there.

As we see that six basis point increase year-over-year, a couple of drivers that I would point to there. One is the liquidity provision scheme we introduced in 2020.

That really started an inflection point in market share, which improved the market quality to an extent where we were able to use our data and analytics platform, the one that will be leveraging Snowflake, to provide data and analytics to show to our customers that actually what we call the effective market share, the share that you should be providing to Cboe based on its best bid and offer at any point in time, warrants a higher proportion of order flow to be sent to us. We saw a great response there from major top 10 customers responding to that in the back half of last year, and with others still yet to make changes.

The trajectory on the lit order books very positive there. It is a competitive environment, there will be responses.

We're very well positioned in order to continue to respond to provide data evidence to the quality of the platform. Second driver to point to there is another data and analytics campaign around the Bids offering in Europe, both increasing that network of new customers, onboarding new clients, but also, once again, evidencing through data and analytics the advantage of trading on the Cboe Bids Europe platform, where we see uniquely liquidity opportunities for our institutional and intermediary customers, really resulting in a 32% market share for block trading for the Bids platform in Europe, really leaving us there about six percentage points ahead of the nearest competitor in Europe with a good gain quarter-over-quarter.

Really, the Bids and the lit platform working well for us there, with the final point really being on periodic auctions, which have seen increased market share of the overall market, given their utility, but also in the local market. Also, just to mention, we've launched that in the United States and seeing some early traction with some large trades going off within the platform.

Did that cover all of your questions?

Brian Bedell

Yep. Got it.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session.

I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Hill for any closing comments.

Ken Hill

Like to thank you for your interest in our company, and have a great weekend, everyone.

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now concluded.

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.