Coeur Mining, Inc.

Coeur Mining, Inc.

12.45
EUR
-0.99
(-7.40%)
0.98EPS
14.47P/E
14.75BMarket Cap
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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 6, 2026

Mitch Krebs

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining our call to discuss Coeur's second-quarter results. Before we start, please note our cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, and refer to our SEC filings on our website.

Starting off on slide 3, Coeur's record second-quarter results were driven in large part by the first full quarter of contributions from the recently acquired New Afton and Rainy River operations. Quarterly revenue passed the $1 billion mark for the first time in the company's history on the way to record quarterly adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.

Lower prices, inflationary pressures, below-plan grades at three of our operations, and the pace of production ramp-ups at Rainy River and New Afton were all headwinds during the quarter. There was also a $140 million or 10-cent per share non-cash impact to second-quarter EPS and EBITDA from the acquisition accounting driven by Rainy River's stockpile inventory that's worth highlighting.

Off the back of nearly $400 million of quarterly free cash flow, our ending cash balance exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history and is expected to continue increasing rapidly, turning the balance sheet into a significant source of strength. We intend to continue deploying this cash into record levels of exploration investment and into our organic growth projects to help us deliver peer-leading ROIC.

We also showed in the second quarter our commitment to returning capital to shareholders as we began to more actively repurchase shares under the expanded $750 million buyback program in the second half of the quarter, and we paid the company's first dividend in 30 years. The company's growing financial strength leaves us well-positioned, which is expected to further increase with a significantly second-half weighted production and cash flow profile.

Hitting on a couple of second-quarter highlights, Rochester out in Nevada achieved an important milestone with a new quarterly record of 6.8 million metric tons crushed, a 15% increase over the prior quarter. This progress in establishing crusher consistency and predictability has been a true team effort that deserves acknowledgment.

As Mick will walk you through, the team also completed the Phase 2A leach pad expansion during the quarter, leaving Rochester poised for very strong second-half silver production given the significant number of ounces placed close to liner. It was also great to see Wharf bounce back with a strong quarter as they returned to more normal operations after recovering from damages to the crusher last November.

We issued an exploration update last month highlighting the ongoing success we're having at our two Mexican operations. Recent results at Palmarejo with the continued emergence off to the east, and at Las Chispas with drilling in the Gap Zone and at other new targets, underscores the continued impact of our brownfield exploration investments on our efforts to drive higher returns on invested capital.

While our five legacy operations remain on track to deliver their full-year guidance, we recalibrated New Afton's and Rainy River's guidance ranges for the nine months of Coeur ownership in 2026. The Rainy River adjustments reflect a more gradual expected ramp-up in underground production rates this year than previously assumed, and the New Afton modifications reflect the rate of cave growth we're seeing since the C-Zone development was completed in April.

Mick will provide additional details on the great work being done to safely and sustainably deliver the performance that we expect from these two new assets. Meanwhile, I'm pleased to report that our post-acquisition integration efforts are advancing according to schedule.

Before turning it over to Mick, our addition to the S&P 400 MidCap Index, announced on June 8th, was another example of how our U.S.-based North American platform of seven well-balanced operations offers investors liquid, high-quality exposure to the positive long-term outlook for gold, silver, and copper. Mick, over to you.

Mick Routledge

Thanks, Mitch. Coeur's operating results in the second quarter included several important developments that bode well for the strength of our enhanced portfolio as we look forward to the second half of 2026 and beyond.

As Mitch mentioned, we saw lower-than-planned grades at Kensington, Rochester, and Palmarejo, which are expected to rebound in the second half consistent with our guidance. A strong second-half tailwind at Rochester, aside from the higher planned grades, is the impressive progress of the crushing circuit, which continues to deliver strong, more consistent performance.

Of the record 6.8 million tons crushed in 2Q that Mitch mentioned, approximately 97% ran through all three stages of crushing, highlighting the enhanced efficiency and flexibility of the operation as the crushing train moves further into a consistent operating rhythm. The pace of construction for Phase 2A of leach pad 6 accelerated during the quarter.

Some of you may recall the initial flush of silver and gold production in 2023 following placement and irrigation of first ore close to liner on pad 6 Phase 1. With Phase 2A ore placed exceeding 4 million tons through July and growing, we expect a similar spike to underpin strong second-half 2026 production at Rochester.

Phase 2B of pad 6 is well on schedule, and we expect it to be completed in Q4 of this year, providing additional capacity close to liner. Turning briefly to Wharf, the team continued to exceed expectations and complete all repairs ahead of schedule following the fire incident in the crusher building last November.

Two contract crushing units augmented ore placement rates on the pads as the repaired Wharf crusher achieved full capacity in May. Contract crushing has been fully demobilized, and normal operations have now resumed.

Moving to the Canadian assets, we have continued to work closely with the New Afton and Rainy River teams over the last four months on integration and mine plan optimization. At New Afton, the primary focus remains on prioritizing healthy cave growth.

Executing disciplined cave draw management in these early days is the most important factor we control to protect the long-term health and productivity of C-Zone. We increased tonnage draw from the western portion of the cave at similar grades to the north draw points, and we are still limiting tonnage from the higher-grade eastern portion of the cave following completion of its construction in April.

Daily mining rates during the quarter averaged approximately 12,000 tons per day. We are pleased to report that we saw mining rates tick up further in July, including reaching 14,000 tons per day during the last week of the month as we've begun to increase draw rates in the west.

We expect to achieve targeted throughput of 16,000 tons per day early in the fourth quarter compared to the end of the second quarter as assumed in the original New Gold 2026 budget they approved late last year. As a result, we have refined New Afton's partial-year guidance to reflect this prudent approach, which is summarized on slide 12.

At Rainy River, solid production from Phase 4 of the open pit drove free cash flow of $123 million, the highest free cash flow of any mine in Coeur's long history. Open-pit mining, processing, and underground development all performed well during the initial full quarter of Coeur's ownership, while waste-stripping activities on Phase 5 of the open pit remained ahead of schedule.

It is important to note, we kept the mill full all quarter via the operation's significant stockpile inventory. We expect the acquired high- and medium-grade stockpiles to be depleted by the end of the third quarter, but we will be building up a new stockpile to provide that important level of flexibility with a goal of keeping the mill full at all times.

Second-quarter production was affected by lower-than-planned underground mining rates, which reflected some short-term execution challenges with the underground mining contractor. I am pleased to report that after assuming control of the operation and addressing the gaps we observed, underground mining rates are now on the rise, as evidenced in the performance improvements we saw in July.

The gaps did require a relatively modest amount of additional capital and operating costs that Tom will highlight. However, we are expecting a very quick payback.

Just to give you a sense, after averaging 2,300 tons per day in the second quarter, underground production rates jumped over 40% to approximately 3,300 tons per day in July. We now expect to achieve our target of 5,000 tons per day by year-end versus the third quarter as assumed in the original New Gold 2026 budget that they approved late last year.

Revised partial-year 2026 production guidance at Rainy River is shown on slide 13, which reflects this slightly slower assumed ramp-up of underground mining rates. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Whelan

Thanks, Mick. Turning to slide 9, I'll briefly run through our consolidated financial results.

Despite being our second-lightest expected production quarter this year, our balanced seven-asset portfolio produced quarterly record financial results off the back of the inclusion of our first quarter of our Canadian assets. Some of the many quarterly records included record quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion, a 27% increase quarter-over-quarter; record EBITDA of $478 million despite the $141 million non-cash expense related to Rainy River's fair value uplift of the short-term stockpile, which must flow through EBITDA, the P&L, and our reported CAS number; and record free cash flow of $388 million or more than $4 million per day, an increase of 45% versus last quarter.

Our Canadian assets delivered 45% of overall quarterly free cash flow or approximately $175 million despite both assets being in ramp-up mode. Our Q2 results did see lower realized gold and silver prices than Q1, particularly in June.

We're also seeing some signs of cost inflation, specifically diesel costs, as shown on slide 11. Slide 8 illustrates the tremendous impact of these accelerating cash flows on our balance sheet.

Cash of $1.1 billion at June 30 represents a doubling of the balance versus year-end 2025. We paid out approximately 45% of our Q2 quarterly free cash flow with $110 million of buybacks through June 30th, the payment of an inaugural 2-cent dividend, and the elimination of $39 million of our higher-cost capital lease debt.

We exited Q2 with liquidity of over $2 billion, leaving no doubt about our balance sheet strength. With expectations for significantly higher production during the second half of 2026, Coeur is poised to deliver even higher quarterly free cash flow for the remainder of the year.

Based on revised guidance and our updated forecast pricing of $4,000 per ounce of gold, $60 per ounce of silver, and $6 per pound of copper, we expect to generate 2026 EBITDA of approximately $2.3 billion and free cash flow of approximately $1.5 billion, despite significantly lower assumed metals prices in the second half of 2026 and only nine months of lower-than-originally-planned contribution from New Afton and Rainy River. What an amazing story.

I wanted to highlight the key changes in our updated guidance on slide 21. We have tweaked our overall 2026 CapEx guidance at Rainy River to reflect $45 million of Phase 5 capitalized stripping costs previously guided as an operating cost, and $25 million of expenditures related to underground development, equipment, and infrastructure to assist with the gaps Mick and his team identified.

Revised CapEx guidance also includes an additional $15 million at Silvertip for 2026 pre-feasibility study and related costs. Cash taxes were guided downwards to reflect lower assumed metals prices and lower Canadian taxes.

Amortization guidance was also reduced as we completed our initial purchase price allocation for the newly acquired Canadian assets. Adjusted CAS guidance for gold and copper at New Afton increased as a result of the lower expected production.

However, it is important to note that we did not see an overall increase in total operating costs at New Afton. Adjusted gold CAS guidance at Rainy River also increased as a result of the lower expected production.

We are also expecting a 10% increase in total operating costs or approximately $30 million during 2026 for additional labor, rental equipment, and maintenance to address the gaps Mick and his team identified. I did want to spend a minute on the acquisition accounting related to the short-term inventory, including the significant short-term stockpile at Rainy River that we acquired at the transaction closing.

The fair value uplift of the acquired inventory as required under US GAAP is an important, pointy-headed accounting matter to clearly understand given the magnitude and the pervasive impact it has on our financial results. While the impact is non-cash, the full-year total will be $244 million at Rainy River and $20 million at New Afton.

We want to emphasize this non-cash amount must be included in our EBITDA, net income, and CAS. During the first quarter, approximately $85 million of the fair value uplift hit our EBITDA, net income, and CAS.

The Q2 impact was a further $140 million or approximately 10 cents per share, and the remaining $38 million is anticipated to flow through during Q3 as we expect to have depleted the remaining acquired short-term stockpile at Rainy River by the end of the quarter, as Mick mentioned. To give a better sense of the order of magnitude of this non-cash impact on our CAS, the Q2 impact at Rainy River was $2,036 per ounce of the total $3,788 CAS per ounce.

On a consolidated basis, it represented $834 per ounce of the total $2,442 in CAS per ounce. I hope that made sense, and I'll get off the accounting soapbox.

We remain extremely excited and proud of this platform we've created as a unique, North America-only precious metals producer with a heart of silver. We are set up for a strong second half of free cash flow, continued capital returns, and cash accumulation on the balance sheet as we continue to deliver on our strategic plan.

I'll now turn the call back to Mitch.

Mitch Krebs

Thanks, Tom. Before opening it up for Q&A, our key strategic priorities for the remainder of the year are shown on slide 20.

We're looking forward to delivering sharp increases in production and cash flow during the second half that are expected to lead to record full-year 2026 results, leaving us well-positioned to deliver another record year in 2027. With that, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad.

If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw a question, you may press star then two.

At this time, we will pause just momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question here will come from Wayne Lam with TD Securities.

Please go ahead.

Wayne Lam

Thanks. Morning, guys.

Hey, how's it going? Just want to understand the reset in the expectations for the New Gold assets after just the first quarter of operation post the combined guidance.

Maybe starting with New Afton, what was the previously budgeted timeline to get to the 16,000 tons per day? Was the revision here also largely grade-driven?

Because I think most had baked in a ramp-up to reach the run-rate capacity, but also seems like a second haircut taken at New Afton now from what New Gold management had previously guided to what was outlined in the combined guidance a few months ago to now.

Mitch Krebs

We'll start there with New Afton. Thanks for the question.

The original plan for New Afton coming into this year was for them to be at 16,000 tons a day by the end of the second quarter. I think what we're seeing now is hitting that level early in the fourth quarter.

Roughly three months slower than what they came into the year assuming. The reset in the guidance ranges there is driven more by that timing.

There's a little bit of a grade differential just as we draw from different parts of the cave in response to kind of how the cave is propagating since the construction was completed in April. Maybe, Mick, you can go a layer deeper than that?

Mick Routledge

Thanks for the question. It's really about that healthy cave propagation.

With respect to the grades, we're really trying to chop the cave up into six main areas: sort of the north and south, and then split up into the east and west zones. That's different grades across the cave.

The key to the start of the cave is really about drawing it and getting it balanced and flat so that it comes down as a block. Where the high grades are really in the south and the east.

We have to draw more on the west and the north at the moment to get the cave to propagate in a flat manner. As we see that coming to bear over this next quarter, then we'll see the draw rates increase, and we should see the grades improve over that period between now and the end of the year.

Mitch Krebs

Does that help, Wayne?

Wayne Lam

That's great. Then maybe just at Rainy River, can you give us a bit more detail on the challenges with the underground contractor this quarter, and again on the prior timeline on the ramp-up to 5,000 tons per day, and maybe some color on the underground grades as well?

Then, just wondering, maybe for Tom, if you're chewing through more of the stockpiles at a faster rate resulting in a greater non-cash impact near term on the purchase price adjustment, does that mean that that non-cash impact to CAS goes away at some point soon, or just not sure if I'm framing with that correctly?

Mitch Krebs

Tom, I'll try and answer that second question first, because it's I think a pretty quick answer, which is yes, it should go away with the third quarter. I think, Tom, in your comments you mentioned 30 $38 million or so is expected to roll through the P&L in Q3 and then we should be done, thankfully.

That's on that, Wayne. Is that good on the accounting question?

Wayne Lam

Yeah. That's good color.

Yeah.

Mitch Krebs

Yeah. Okay.

Good. Then just on the Rainy River front, I'll say a couple things, and then, Mick, you can cover more detail.

I'd say that those short-term execution challenges were more kind of in the tactical realm. As those throughput rates started to climb, you could see some gaps start to surface in things like trucks, personnel, availability, and some infrastructure-related constraints that will be covered by the CapEx increase that Tom flagged.

We got in there in April, May, Mick and the team at Rainy River did I think a really good job of identifying some of these gaps as they started ramping up to that next level and put a good plan in place pretty quickly. It's really nice to be able to see in July the effects of that work as the rates started to climb up pretty quickly, and that's continued here into the early days of August.

That has us feeling really good about the second-half ramp-up to that 5,000 tons a day by year-end. Just quickly on the underground grade open-pit grade mix, I think in the second quarter the underground contributed something like 9% of total tons, and that should be almost twice that in the second half.

Those underground grades are almost three times higher than the surface grades, the open-pit grades. As we see that tonnage come up to 5,000 tons a day with that higher-grade impact from those tons, that's going to be a nice tailwind in terms of the second-half production levels there at Rainy River.

Mick, did I leave anything there for you to cover? Just

Mick Routledge

a couple of bits and pieces really. Just to say, we're actually really happy with the response of our underground mining contractor.

Working really well with them hand in a glove. The early part of the development of the underground was really focused on those development rates, and the contract structure focused on that.

Once we addressed that and we ramped up hard on the development, that outpaced the mining rates, which then effectively exposed the other bottlenecks that we had to address. We got after those with our contractor with a great response, and we're seeing already the uptick in that performance with the contractor focused now on mining rates to balance that against the development rates.

Really, really happy about how that's improving.

Wayne Lam

Great. Looking forward to the operational improvements in the back half of the year.

Maybe just last one at Rochester. Can you just walk us through the expectations into the second half on the grades and recoveries?

I know the quarterly guidance had accounted for some of the lower grade this quarter and a pretty big step-change on silver into Q4, but just given the longer cycle for silver recoveries that we've seen in the past, is that still realistic to expect those ounces to come out that quickly as per the guided expectations?

Mitch Krebs

I'd say the three three biggies there, Wayne: consistent crusher performance that we're now demonstrating, assume that continues; and then you've got the nice mix of higher grades; and then close to fresh liner. Those are the ingredients for what should be a pretty dramatic second half compared to the first half.

Mick, you want to cover that?

Mick Routledge

During this first part of the year, Wayne, we had a lot of material that we had to produce as overliner for the construction of those new pads, and that's at a higher size fraction, and it slows our crusher performance down. We've got through that a lot.

We're still producing a little bit of that for the next phase of the expansion, but overall, we're in good shape for that uptick in the second half. There's a lot of tons sitting on that new liner that have not even been started to irrigate yet, looking forward to that.

Wayne Lam

Perfect. Nice to see a lot of free cash flow coming through despite the slower ramp-up, and look forward to the catch-up operationally.

Best of luck in the months ahead.

Mitch Krebs

Thanks, Wayne.

Operator

Our next question will come from Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Cosmos Chiu

Thanks, Mitch, Mick, and Tom for the presentation. Maybe my first question is going back to New Afton here.

I noticed that recovery was slightly lower quarter-over-quarter, 85.1% for gold and 90.6% for copper. I guess two parts to my question.

Number one, as you talked about grade potentially coming back up later on during the year, is that going to help in terms of recovery? Then number two, as you had recalibrated your guidance for the year, what kind of recovery rate are you assuming for the rest of 2026?

Mitch Krebs

Thanks, Cosmos, for the question. As we go into the second half of the year, and as Mick alluded to, we'll not only see a throughput uptick, but we'll see a grade uptick as well as they start drawing on some of those other areas of the C-Zone.

That should flow through to higher recoveries on both gold and copper relative to what we saw in the first half of the year. Mick, do you want to cover that as well?

Mick Routledge

You nailed it actually. Those lower grades, it's all really about the cave draw management.

As those grades come up, we should see some appreciation in the recovery rates.

Cosmos Chiu

Great. Then so is what we saw in Q1, is that a better sort of run rate?

I forget in terms of, based on the technical report, what kind of recovery rates is expected sort of life of mine for copper and gold?

Mitch Krebs

That first quarter, for us, in our world, was 11 days, I can't even remember what those recoveries looked like for that little snapshot of time. Mick, do you want to answer Cosmos's question?

Mick Routledge

Based on the material that we pulled from the cave, the recoveries actually just did better than what mat model, in fact. It's tracking well based on recoveries compared to the tech report.

Cosmos Chiu

Great. I guess going to Rainy River here, as you mentioned, as underground development caught up, mining rates are now catching up to those development rates.

I guess my question is, you did 2,300 tons per day in Q2. Is there any kind of internal targets that you can share with us, what were you expecting in Q2 for mining rates to have hit?

Then second part is, you're getting to 5,000 tons per day or targeting 5,000 tons per day by year-end, that's more than double what you did in Q2. What's kind of that cadence of that increase?

You did 3,300 kind of now. Is that a good number to use for Q3, or how should we think of how that increase is going to be?

Is it a straight line or is it going more parabolic? How should we look at it?

Mitch Krebs

Man, you're asking for some pretty good precision there, Cosmos, but I'd say the rates of underground production between now and the end of the year is fairly linear and gradual. That 5,000-ton-a-day is not an average for the fourth quarter.

It's sort of at the end of the year is where we plan to be. As you think about building that into your model, it's a pretty steady ramp assumed from where we saw July to where we see December.

Cosmos Chiu

Great. It doesn't hurt to ask, right, Mitch?

You can always

Mitch Krebs

Hey, you know. You've got a model to update.

I get it.

Cosmos Chiu

Then maybe in terms of the pre-stripping of Phase 5, how is that going?

Mitch Krebs

That's a good news story. At Rainy, we talk a lot about these underground mining rates, but let's not forget the open pit is doing great.

The mill is doing great. They're really hitting their stride on the underground development.

Now chasing that next bottleneck down into the underground mining rates now that we're on top of. In terms of Phase 5 pre-strip, that's a good story, right, Mick?

Mick Routledge

The strip is ahead of the game, and we expect to get a fair amount of material in the second half from 5 now, which is great as we finish off 4, and then we manage coming out of the fourth pushback, we'll get into 5 before the end of the year and pull some material. Really happy about the progress there.

The mill is full. We had stockpiles that allowed us to keep the mill full continuously, so, yeah, we're in good shape.

Cosmos Chiu

Great. Cool.

Maybe one last question. I see that in your CapEx discussion in your MD&A, you have allocated additional $15 million in CapEx to Silvertip.

Any updates there you can provide to us, and what should we be looking for?

Mitch Krebs

No, good catch, good question. Since we talked after the first quarter, in early May, we wrapped up the initial assessment, and we've now progressed into a pre-feasibility study.

That was a decision that we made together with our board in mid-May. That extra capital that you've flagged there, Cosmos, is really a reflection of us funding that additional work to wrap up a PFS hopefully early 2027.

Meantime, exploration is fully funded for the year to continue to try and expand the resource. That's really hitting its peak right now here in this third third quarter.

That extra capital for Silvertip is really to fund the studies that we're proceeding with.

Cosmos Chiu

Great. Thanks, Mitch, Mick, and Tom for answering all my questions, and enjoy the rest of your summer.

Mitch Krebs

Thanks. You too, Cosmos.

Operator

Our next question will come from Josh Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Josh Wolfson

Thank you very much. Appreciate all the disclosures on this call and some of the details for the New Gold assets.

It's been helpful. Just sort of going into some of the details there further and looking at maybe some of the impacts on 2027.

The company was talking about changing, I guess, the draw of the cave for New Afton, maybe balancing things out a bit more. Would it be reasonable to think if you're balancing things out more, the grades that were previously expected in '27 and '28 that were quite high, might be a little bit more smoothed out versus the rest of the mine plan, or is the cave sort of changes more limited to 2026?

Mitch Krebs

Mick, do you want to cover that?

Mick Routledge

At the moment we're busy rerunning those plans. We'll really know that through Q3 and into Q4 as we set the budget for '27 and beyond.

For the moment, there hasn't been any ore sterilized. We're really just making sure that we balance the cave and we draw from the right points to get that balance.

My expectation is that we'll see that grade at some point over the next period.

Josh Wolfson

All right. Thank you.

Then similarly at Rainy, I believe the underground throughput or mining rate was closer to about 6,000 over the next two years. Is that still a reasonable ultimate target, and maybe is there some slight ramp-up period we should be forecasting in 2027?

Mitch Krebs

No, good question. I'd say that technical report, some good piece of work.

Obviously, it was New Gold's technical report, not ours. There's still some work that we'll want to do here as we get closer to 2027 on how we see that mix of underground versus open pit going forward.

For now, getting up to that 5,000 ton per day from the underground by year-end and carrying that into 2027 is the near-term plan. There's still a lot of good work to do there in terms of figuring out what that future looks like at Rainy River, because there's a lot of optionality there with the open pit that we want to make sure we're factoring into our thinking as we go forward.

Josh Wolfson

Got it. Then last question, just on the capital allocation side.

Good work with the initial buybacks, and noted the high cash balance projected for year-end. In that context, I'm wondering how is the company thinking about the cadence of the buyback through the approved period?

Should we forecast similar levels or rates, or will it change based on share prices? Then when you think about the cash position and the growth expected, where would the company look to invest in growth that could start to be spent in 2027?

Thanks.

Mitch Krebs

Yeah. No, great capital allocation question.

I'll start, and then, Tom, you can certainly chime in. I think we set up a well-designed buyback program with portion of it just automatically chewing away during blackouts no matter what.

Then we can step in during non-blackout periods and be opportunistic when we see the stock at a point where we think it's undervalued. It's going to be driven by that.

We don't feel like we have a gun to our head to get through $750 million by a certain date. Certainly when the stock's weak or is underperforming or on a relative basis seems undervalued, we're going to step in and be aggressive.

As we go through the rest of the year, that's really going to be the driver for the pace of that buyback program. We feel good about coming out of the gate strong since mid-May and the progress that we've made so far.

It remains a key focus for us as we go forward. As far as that building cash, yeah, it gives us a lot of great financial flexibility to pursue high-return growth starting with exploration.

On the brownfields exploration side, we'll keep investing as much as we efficiently can deploy at some of those high-priority sites, so that's right up there high on our capital allocation framework. The big, chunky growth really is driven by K-Zone out there at New Afton, advancing the studies and seeing if Silvertip is a potential new source of not that long-term or not that far off primary silver production, Canadian production, silver growth.

You look out at East Rochester a little bit longer term, and you think about what could we do over there to take advantage of the exploration success outside of the Franco-Nevada area of interest there at Palmarejo. Then back to Rainy River, what does the future look like there in terms of potential mine life extensions that could require some additional infrastructure to support a longer mine life?

Some of those are some of the big chunks that come to mind. Tom, what did I forget?

Tom Whelan

You nailed it. We're really happy with the designed program.

We'll be coming out of blackout here on Friday. If we see opportunities with where the share price is at versus our expectations of value, we'll be aggressive.

Josh Wolfson

All right. Thank you very much.

Mitch Krebs

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Our next question will come from Kevin O'Halloran with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Kevin O'Halloran

Hey, Mitch and team. Thanks for taking my questions.

Mitch Krebs

Yeah. Hi, Kevin.

Kevin O'Halloran

Hey, at Palmarejo, can you just remind us what your goal is in terms of building out that resource inventory outside the area of influence, and then how much production do you expect to shift outside that stream area over the next say few years?

Mitch Krebs

Great question. Been a topic of discussion here a lot, especially on the heels of that exploration release that we put out a couple weeks ago that shows continued success over there both further to the east at that San Miguel, La Union, we call it the Guazapares area, which is the furthest kind of to the north and east from where our current operations are.

That's a longer-term game. That needs to have additional drilling, additional resource growth, and then Mick and the team are going to start doing their studies around trade-offs of how much mineralization do we need to consider a potential standalone opportunity there longer term, or in the interim, is there an opportunity to haul material from that Guazapares area back to the Palmarejo processing facility?

That's a workstream that will go on for a while and with additional drilling in the meantime. The nearer-term stuff, that's the Independencia Sur, the southeastern extension of Independencia that extends off the Franco-Nevada area of interest.

That's the nearer-term opportunity, and I think in the second quarter we saw something like 50% of our gold production subject to the Franco-Nevada terms. The goal is to look at that Independencia Sur in the next two or three years as the nearer-term opportunity to start bringing in some gold where we can actually sell it for the market price rather than to Franco-Nevada for $800 an ounce.

There's a near-term play there to the southeast at Independencia. There's the kind of medium-term play further off to the east in that Guazapares area, and then in between those two areas, there's a lot of exploration potential and excitement that we'll continue to fund.

That, in my mind, is then the longer-term play even further beyond the Guazapares. It's like a whole new chapter to the Palmarejo story over there to the east with some near-term, medium-term, and longer-term opportunities.

Kevin O'Halloran

Great. Lots of potential there.

Appreciate that. My other question was just at Las Chispas.

You had higher throughput in Q2 and slightly lower grades, although grades were still quite strong. How should we be thinking about the production there going forward?

Is there a bit of a trend towards higher throughput and a little bit lower grades, or was this just kind of typical quarter-to-quarter fluctuations?

Mitch Krebs

Thanks for the question. They are doing a tremendous job there of being very predictable and consistent and steady.

You look at first-half performance versus second-half expectations, it's a nice equal balance between the two, and that's kind of the way we see it continuing into the future. Anything, Mick, you want to add to that?

Mick Routledge

Just we have a very healthy inventory stockpile, and that helps us to just balance what we get from the mine and balance the grades and the production rates out so that the mill sees what we need it to see, and we just continue to tick along there.

Kevin O'Halloran

Makes sense. Then on the mining unit costs there at Las Chispas, I noticed they were up a little bit in Q2.

Was that driven by royalties and the peso, or are there other factors going on there?

Mitch Krebs

That's a good one. I don't have a good answer to off the top of my head.

I know there was some stockpile management that was taking place building onto the stockpile. Mick, is there anything that comes to mind?

Mick Routledge

It was just with that little bit lower grade, we've pushed a little bit more material to keep hitting the plan. We expect to be on budget by the end of the year, it's just really quarterly fluctuations.

Kevin O'Halloran

Great. That's it for me.

Thanks for taking my questions.

Mitch Krebs

Okay. Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Our next question will come from Eric Winmill with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Eric Winmill

Oh, hi. Good morning, Mitch and team.

Thanks for taking my question. I think a lot of my questions have been answered, but maybe just one on New Afton and the K-Zone.

Any updates there in terms of what's happening? I know you said studies ongoing, but are we likely to see an update, you think, later this year or next year?

Mitch Krebs

Are you talking K-Zone, Eric?

Eric Winmill

That's correct. At New Afton.

Mitch Krebs

There's an exploration piece there, and then a study piece. Mick, do you want to take the study piece, where we are on that work, and then Aoife, maybe you can chime in with a couple comments on the drilling that we're doing there?

Mick Routledge

We're doing the preparations for an FS. We're getting ready.

We haven't got an exact date when we'll kick that off yet, but it will be soon because the engineering, the development, and Aoife will talk about the drill in a second. That's ongoing.

We're resourced, and we're moving forward with that. We have time to do that well, and we've already looked at how we'll do that development to get in the right spot to do the drilling and characterize that ready for the engineering requirements of an FS.

Aoife McGrath

On the exploration side there, we're having great results from the K-Zone. We've expanded the footprint by just over 300 meters this year on a base of somewhere around 600 meters initially from the maiden resource shape that was outlined in Q1.

The grades are holding up very well. We're seeing some nice, wide, juicy intercepts in K-Zone, we're very excited to see what comes out here in the next resource update.

Mitch Krebs

Does that help, Eric? Yeah.

Eric Winmill

Yeah. Appreciate the update.

Then just point of clarity, did I hear correctly, you said you're expecting a PFS at Silvertip probably early next year? You'd release something?

Mitch Krebs

We'll complete it. As to whether we'll release it or not, that's probably something we'll just keep internal and whether there's a thumbs up or a thumbs down at that sort of off-ramp.

We'll see what it looks like. Is it worth continuing on to an FS?

Probably and if it is, and we make that transition into a feasibility study, maybe on the back of that work, that's something we would look to release. That gives us a little more time as well for the drilling to keep going and catching up and adding to that resource so that we could put together a really economically attractive project in that kind of a final study.

Eric Winmill

Great. Thank you very much.

Last one for me. I know you're still busy integrating the New Gold acquisition, but in terms of overall portfolio composition, are you happy with the assets, any thoughts on divestitures or things you might want to add down the road?

Mitch Krebs

Oh, appreciate the question. We're happy with the portfolio.

Everybody's doing great. Every asset's contributing.

The second half is going to be a lot of fun. On the integration front, the people are great.

The infrastructure, these assets are terrific. We couldn't be more pleased with everything.

Obviously, we've got a little bit of a timing on the ramp-ups that we've made an adjustment for, but, as far as the overall portfolio, no, we like everything we have. We like the North America only.

We've got good balance across the seven assets, and so we're pleased with what we have.

Eric Winmill

All right. Fantastic.

Thank you very much. Really appreciate it, and I'll hop back in the queue.

Cheers.

Mitch Krebs

Okay. Yep.

Thanks, Eric. Again,

Operator

if you have a question, you may press star then one to join the queue. Our next question will come from Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

Please go ahead.

Brian MacArthur

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question, and thank you for all the guidance. Can I just ask a bigger, philosophical question?

Obviously, this is all about free cash flow. You've given good guidance for the rest of the year, but I kind of want to break it up into Q3, Q4, if I can.

If I think about this going forward for EBITDA, you're sort of saying, under your forecast, you need a billion three over the back half of the year, with the non-cash stuff coming off in the Q4, you've got ramp-ups going on, I assume costs are coming down. Should I think of this as 40/60 between Q3, Q4, is that reasonable?

Then maybe the more important part of the question is when I go to free cash flow for your CapEx in the back half of the year, is it evenly weighted, or is it heavily weighted to Q3 or something, so that when we get the Q3 free cash flow number, it ends up being 25% or 30% of your expected back-half cash flow? I know it's a detailed question, but I think it leads into how much free cash flow the market's expecting and how much you have available to buy back shares and do everything else.

Thanks. Yeah.

No,

Mitch Krebs

great philosophical question. I was going to just hand over the call to Tom thinking it was going to be a tax question that you were going to ask, Brian.

On the weighting, your weighting is probably pretty good between Q3, Q4 on the free cash flow. Typically CapEx is a little higher in Q3 during the better summer season or weather versus Q4.

Tom? No,

Tom Whelan

Q3 is definitely higher CapEx than Q4. Don't forget Aoife has a gazillion drills going in the third quarter, it will be the heaviest quarter for exploration.

Just look at that production profile that we guided, right, you do see the production steps up pretty nicely in Q3 and then steps up even nicer in Q4, so that should help figure out the geography of the free cash flow growth by quarter as well.

Mitch Krebs

Back to Wayne's question on timing of silver at Rochester, that gold comes out a lot faster in Q3, but Q4 then on the silver at Rochester is where you'll really start to see the hockey stick in the second half of the year out there.

Brian MacArthur

That's what I was trying to work out, because you've got all these moving parts. You set up and down there in a couple.

Then I guess the other thing just for EBITDA, we get rid of the $38 million, as you said, from Q3 to Q4 as well, right? That'll be income statement Q3, but non-cash in Q3.

Mitch Krebs

That's right. It'll be nice to get past that purchase price allocation noise in the third quarter and a cleaner, simpler fourth quarter.

Tom Whelan

Offset by, I know it's accounting noise, but this is great operational flexibility for us to have. Las Chispas, it's been great to have that stockpile, and at Rainy, it's been great to have that stockpile.

Just apologies for the accounting. This is what has been forced upon us, and so the pain's almost done, and thanks for everyone's understanding.

All of the analysts did a really good job of understanding this, and thank you.

Brian MacArthur

Great. Thanks very much.

I was just more concerned about the free cash flow, and yes, it's really important. Thank you.

Mitch Krebs

Yeah. No, thanks, Brian.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mitch Krebs for any closing remarks.

Mitch Krebs

Okay. We appreciate all the great questions and everybody's time today.

We look forward to talking with you all again later in the fall after our third-quarter results. Have a great rest of the day and rest of the summer.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect your lines.