Credito Emiliano S.p.A.

Credito Emiliano S.p.A.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 5, 2026

Operator

Morning. This is the Chorus Call operator.

Welcome to Credem's conference call presenting H1 2026 results. To be assisted by an operator during the conference call, press * and 0 on your telephone keypad.

Let me now turn the conference over to Mr. Stefano Morellini, General Manager of Credem.

Mr. Morellini, you have the floor.

Stefano Morellini

Good morning to all of you, and thank you for logging in even though we are very close to the summer holidays. Together with me, I have Giuliano Casinadri and Daniele, our CFO, and Aaron Sperduti and the entire Investor Relations team.

It was a first half that was greatly satisfactory for us, reconfirming our ability to achieve excellent results thanks to a growth strategy enhancing our business model at best. A growth, as I already told you, that we could drive in an organic way and also, potentially looking into opportunities, we could also grow through M&As.

The way we do banking, and these results confirm it, is a benchmark, is a credible reference in the market, both for families and corporations, and we constantly support them with the utmost quality product. At the same time, we really support the country, and we help savers.

They find in our group a safe and reliable guide, capable of enhancing their savings through careful advisory and targeted, customized advisory. This is the result of the day-to-day commitment of our professionalism, and our sense of responsibility and accountability, and of all of our people, all of our staff.

I would like to really warmly thank them, congratulate them and thank them for their efforts. Let's now drill down into results and highlights.

We are on page two. We would like to reconfirm for H1 2026 our highlights, our points of strength.

First six months were closed with a net profit at €312.9 million, up 12.5% versus H1 2025 net of the one-off of the merchant acquiring sales. We confirm our profitability with an annualized ROTE of 15.9% and an annualized ROE of 14.1%.

Our asset quality is at the top of the banking system, not just in Italy, but also at European level, with an NPL ratio of 1.5% and a net value of the ratio equal to .7%. In addition to that, our capitalization is quite strong and enables us to confidently face our growth path.

CET1 ratio lands at 16.22%, with a buffer of about 768 basis points. Let's now have a look at the results we achieved in our size growth.

We move on to slide three. Also size-wise, we show positive signs also for the first half of 2026.

Loans went up year-on-year, 2.1%, and direct funding went up 4.5%. Both these results are definitely sizable.

Overall funding is equal to €2.7 billion. Most of it is new funding from asset management and insurance.

The distinctive feature that characterizes Credem and confirms the ability of the group to be able to really tap the full potential of a diversified business model, really supporting revenues and streamlining revenues. Also growing is the number of customers, our customer base, that went up 5% versus H1 2025, landing at 1.7 million.

Let's now look at business diversification, our revenue sources. We are on page four.

You see our revenues are diversified, and on a quarterly basis, they have been constantly growing. I'm very happy to highlight that recurring revenues is up and achieves very meaningful levels, levels of absolute excellence, €495.5 million.

This is even higher than the total revenues for the same time period of 2025. In Q2, revenues landed at €545 million with an excellent balance between NII, 47% of total revenues, and NIM equal to 44% of revenues.

During the quarter, a positive impact was derived also from nonrecurring items, that is to say, our trading and commissions, performance fees and trading activities. Let's have a look at the different business lines in the next slides.

We still retain a high profitability level, both in commercial banking, closing the first half at €169.3 million, giving 54% contribution to net profit, and also in the private banking and extended banking services. Extended banking services and consumer credit landed at €45.9 million, accounting for 15% of the total consolidated profit for the first six months of the year.

Excellent results achieved thanks more specifically to the excellent work and excellent quality of our assets and how we really protected our sales spreads and how we managed to grow Wealth and Private, including both Credem Euromobiliare and private product factories. We have an overall result of €106 million, accounting for about 34% of the group total profit.

Wealth and Private is also driven by the excellent growth of assets under management over the last quarters. Our ability to have business lines that can really express excellent levels of profitability is really driven by a growth that is made to be sustainable over time.

Therefore, we can look into opportunities to grow through M&As if accretive and valuable to further improve our strategy could be taken into account. Let's have a look at our growth nationwide, our value creation nationwide.

We are on page six. We have a widespread franchise throughout the country, and really that bears witness to our commitment to grow throughout the country.

Our geographical franchise is well-balanced and very thorough, mirroring the soundness of a national banking group. We want also to be very close to our customers, Banca del Territorio, to say.

We have deep roots in the north, generating high volumes. The way we are faring shows that we are really a national franchise.

We are very competitive also in central and southern Italy. Direct funding and loans, it's a very balanced ratio between them, and a common piece of information that is common to all area is indirect funding that really proves that our advisory model is really performing throughout Italy.

This match between being independent, being at the same time very close to our customers, and being very sound at European level, these are all factors that enable us to create a sustainable growth model, generating value over the long term for all of our stakeholders. Let's have a look at the main items in our income statement, our P&L.

We are on page seven of the presentation. Our NII performed really well, and it's up more than 5% versus the previous quarter, whilst core NIM net of nonrecurring items, such as trading and performance fees, went up sizably thanks to the excellent net delivery of services.

Net revenue went up 8.5% versus the first quarter of 2026 and almost 12% versus the first half of 2025, also thanks to the results we achieved in trading and to the contribution of performance fees. Over this quarter, we really proved that we can really manage cost items, retaining at the same time a constant commitment to really come up with new projects and IT systems to really support the size growth of our group.

Payroll is growing but is declining 3.5% versus the previous quarter because we had an advance of the seasonality effect and the holidays effect. Then, of course, we have ICT costs that are controlled, and our operating profit is up 20% 2.0% versus the same timeframe last year.

The cost of risk is very limited. It's very low, and it's 9 basis points versus the previous year.

The net profit for the first half is €312.9 million, up 24% 24.3% versus, well, quarter-on-quarter and up 12.5% year-on-year. If we look at the adjusted net result, it's €278 million for the first half of 2025 net of the benefit we derived from the disposal of merchant acquiring activities.

Let's now have a look on page eight of the different items. The NII grew nicely over the two quarters.

After €244 million recorded in the first half, the second quarter is up €257 million, and the performance was mainly driven by the favorable positioning, emplacement on interest rate risk, and the constant growth of commercial volumes. Maybe anticipating some of your questions, we look at this year's NII with a much more positive eye versus the previous years, with an NII that we expect growing vis-à-vis or versus 2025.

Let's have a look at the customer spreads. We are on page nine of the presentation.

We do confirm an excellent ability to really support our profitability. Our customer spread is up for the third quarter in a row, and it's higher than 3%, an excellent level, especially considering the level of our asset quality and, therefore, a profitability adjusted by the cost of risk.

The resilience in our customer spread stems from the excellent results of our returns on loans and an accurate management of direct funding thanks to our teams. Let's now move on to our securities portfolio.

We are page 10 of the presentation. If we compare to March, our securities portfolio is quite stable with a slight shrinking of overall volumes to €12.2 billion and also as a consequence of some disposals that we made over the second quarter of 2026.

The portfolio still retains a high level of quality, and it's highly diversified. The overall duration is 4.2 years.

The impact of Italian govvies is 39%, with a component of HTC that is 81%. We are constantly monitoring the market to seize opportunities for better positioning and to really enhance the contribution to our NII.

Let's have a look at the commission performance. We are on page 11, and noninterest margin.

Here we are very, very happy and satisfied to look at the results achieved. Commissions and fees, a one-of-a-kind result that reconfirms what we had already told you in advance, that is to say that this item will be the main driver for revenues over the next quarters, especially thanks to the strong synergies we managed to unfold between our networks and product factories that are well-supported in our business model.

Recurring fees, stripping off income from financial activities and performance fees, went up vis-à-vis the same time period in 2025. It's really a sizable increase equal to 18%.

More specifically, management fees landed at more than €153 million, net of performance fees that were €23.4 million. The result was also driven by a number of placements that over the quarter were worth more than €11 million.

If we look at wealth management, which is also growing, the insurance results land at €30 million in the first half. In excess of €150 million is banking fees, and €27 million instead is the contribution provided by the financial activities in stemming from some profit-taking activities over the six first six months.

Page 12: in addition to really sustaining and supporting revenues and keeping our business sustainable and keeping costs in line with the previous quarter, we retain a level of cost that is in line with the previous quarter without giving up our commitment to really support our size growth by hiring 213 new colleagues since the beginning of the year. With a very strong activity or focus on IT and a number of projects.

Compared to the first quarter of 2026, payroll went down 3.5%, mainly due to holiday taking and a seasonal effect. Admin expenses as a trend is still tied in with the commitment the group has taken to support growth.

Generally speaking, a cost base is strictly correlated with the growth of our group, the size growth, and also tied in with the excellent growth of revenues that we think is sustainable also for the next quarters. Let's now move on to loans to customers.

We are on page 13 of the presentation. We keep growing our loans to customers.

2.1% is the growth year-on-year, confirming both the excellent work we did as a group and also the effectiveness of our business model. More specifically, short-term loans went up 4.6% year-on-year.

Residential mortgages and leasing went up 2.1% and 2% respectively versus 2025. Consumer credit, driven by our company Avvera, is recording a 12.6% increase year-on-year and lands at €4.4 billion.

Despite a market scenario that is really challenging and the strong competition, we are confident we can keep on improving our market share thanks to the strong synergies we can unfold through our business model and the one-of-a-kind work, the extraordinary, outstanding work of our sales network. Let's now talk about inflows.

It's page 14 in the presentation. In the first half of 2026, we landed with an excellent result, almost €2.7 billion overall net inflows.

Very positive are the flows coming from assets under management and insurance, landing at €1.3 billion. It's volumes that are giving a very strong contribution to our commission items and that will still support our revenues in the coming quarters.

Our organic growth strategy is based on increasing inflows and the ability to acquire new clients and to further and further consolidating our role as being a point of reference for our clients to manage their savings. The results achieved in this second quarter prove that we are going along the right lines.

Net direct funding is basically flat, €69 million, and it's a natural development and consistent with our advisory activity that led to the channeling of liquidity into assets under management and then wealth management. A very positive performance: €1.5 billion worth of assets under custody thanks to the placements of govvies.

We are now on page 15 of our presentation. The excellent performance in our net production led to an increase in direct funding from customers.

Our direct deposits go up 4.5% year-on-year, and then we have inflows from insurance assets under management and insurance landing at €51 billion with a 13.3% growth versus the first half of 2025. Let's have a look at the asset quality and the metrics.

Our asset quality metrics are reconfirmed at levels of absolute excellence at the very top of the European banking universe. Cost of risk is very limited and lands at 9 basis points, confirming the effectiveness of our credit assessment policies during origination and the lack of signs of deterioration to be detected.

NPL ratio 1.5% is lower than the system average, both in Italy and in Europe. Also, we are not seeing any signs or meaningful signs of deterioration.

Therefore, our rate is .47%. That's our default rate.

We focus on the economic scenarios. At the same time, as an objective, we want to have a cost of risk in line with the previous years and below 20 basis points.

Let's now move on to the NPL coverage. We are on page 17 of the presentation.

Also looking into the NPL coverage, our group is at the top of the industry, both in Italy and abroad, with a coverage ratio of 56.4%. That includes additional coverage coming from shortfall and coverage of Pillar 1, and so it stands at 59.9%.

These levels really give us a competitive advantage should there be any changes in scenarios as have happened in the past and make us confident in our pathway towards really rolling out our growth strategy. Let's now look at the bond issuances and maturities.

We are on page 18 of the presentation. If we look at institutional wholesale funding, we were back in the market in May with the issuance of a €500 million green bond, and let me remind you that there are no bond maturities in 2026.

The margin on the MREL requirement is 9.2% percentage points. Let's now have a look at liquidity ratios, page 19.

As to liquidity ratios, we have very high levels of net stable funding ratio and liquidity coverage ratios, landing respectively at 140% for NSFR and 171% for LCR. Let's have a look at capital, consolidated capital ratios, page 20.

If we drill down to a greater level of detail, we see our capital position confirming the excellent soundness of the group. Capital ratios both at bank level and holding level are at very high levels, respectively, 17.45% and 16.22% for Credemholding, with a buffer versus the minimum requirement of roughly 768 basis points.

That really enables us to fully support our growth strategy both organically and gives us the necessary flexibility to look into opportunity to grow through M&As, and really enables us to take up any impact that may derive from the volatility of markets or any other external scenario. Page 21, the last table for this presentation, the last slide before we move on to your questions.

I'd like to wrap up the presentation with a summary that really tells you in a very effective way about our DNA. Everything starts from our very foundations.

We've been in the market for a long time, and with capital soundness at the top of the industry, excellent portfolio quality. Thanks to this very sound financial standing, the market is rewarding us when it comes to institutional funding, wholesale funding.

We have well-diversified our wholesale funding, and we can leverage it to really finance the growth, fund the growth of our loans. We can improve the relation with clients.

We can have advanced advisory, and assets under management are also in the forefront. We help our savers, we help our clients to turn their deposits into value-added investments.

We look at the value chain, and we fully control it. We have our own internal products, internally developed products.

Therefore, we can really leverage the margins. We have a fee-based business model.

We generate stable and recurring fees and commissions that are not impacted by interest rate volatility, therefore maximizing the overall profitability of our group. That really organically generates capital and retains an excellent capital soundness.

It's therefore a resilient business model, a profitable one, and a sustainable one over time. I would like to thank you very much for listening to us, and now let's move on to the Q&A.

Operator

This is the Chorus Call operator. Let's now start the Q&A session.

If you want to ask a question, please press * and 1 on your phone. To be removed from the Q&A queue, press * and 2 on your phone.

Use your phone handset to ask the question, please. First question comes from the line of Elena Perini with Intesa Sanpaolo.

Please go ahead, madam.

Elena Perini

Good morning to all of you. Thank you very much for your presentation.

I have three questions. The first one is on your NII.

You gave us a guidance of growth versus 2025 mainly driven by rates and volumes, even though volumes are faring well, too. Could you elaborate on your sensitivity in that respect, your sensitivity to rates?

The second question is about your profits. If we multiply by two your half-year data, you practically would land in line with what you achieved last year though even with the contribution of the capital gain coming from the disposal of the merchant acquiring.

A comment on NII and on other items I mentioned before. How can they move?

What do you expect to happen? What is the level you're going to reach as far as net profit is concerned?

Then one last question: are there any novelties about your capital when it comes to the adoption of CRD IV by member states that could free up 120 bps of basis points of capital? Would that be helpful for further M&A transactions?

Could there be room for a more generous somehow remuneration policy vis-à-vis your shareholders? Thank you.

Stefano Morellini

Thank you for your questions. Let me tackle the first one about the guidance on our NII.

Compared to our expectations for 2026, the expectations we had in 2025, we expect to close 2026 with a growth of at least 5% year-on-year. Thanks to a growth in volumes.

Here we are more optimistic, and that reconfirms our commercial strength. Then secondly, the way interest rates are going, which is really supporting our NII.

Then as far as other guidance items to get to the net profit, maybe let me dwell on assets under management and insurance items. Here the inflows in 2026, consistent with 2025, which was already very good, is ensuring strong revenues from recurring fees, net of performance fees.

We expect it to grow double-digit, of course, subject to how markets will perform. That does not include performance fees.

In the first half, we've already accounted for a big contribution of this performance fees, which was not discounted because of the geopolitical backdrop, and they gave a strong contribution to the increase in our NIM in the first half. We'll see what the market will be like for the second half of this year.

It's clear that if we were to have a similar situation in the market, results will be even more positive than the ones of the first half. As far as our sensitivity to rates, maybe then I'll give the floor to our CFO.

I would like to wrap up answering your questions about the consolidation scope of our holding. There are no major updates there.

The CRD IV directive was recently adopted within Law 285. We'll be able to start a dialogue with regulators, and of course, we will ask for to be excluded from the regulatory or supervisory scope for CRD IV.

That will not come automatically because every decision has to come from the ECB, and the ECB will give its saying on the matter. As far as dividends are concerned, as you all know, dividends is something the Board of Directors will decide upon.

Last year, we confirmed dividends despite the level of profit in recurring items was lower than what we had in the previous year. That was a major signal we sent out then, and that really proved that we really focus on the market and we want to provide a stable remuneration for our shareholders, and therefore, a steady growth of our dividend payout.

Even at moments or hard times, we've always paid out a dividend with the exception of 2020 because of ECB's recommendation. Let me reiterate that this is something the Board of Directors will have to decide upon, and what you've said will be looked into towards year-end, when we will be able to rely on more details about the results we will have achieved throughout 2026.

Daniele, I give you the floor for sensitivity to interest rate.

Daniele Morlini

Hello, Elena. Good morning.

As far as sensitivity to interest rates is concerned, currently, we have a sensitivity over the 12 over 12 months in €97 million positive, 100 bps curve, and -€62 million in case of parallel decline in the range of 100 bps. The average beta in the first six months of the year on deposits was about 30%.

Elena Perini

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Luigi Tramontana with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Luigi Tramontana

Good morning. Congratulations on the excellent results you achieved.

I have three questions, and one is on commissions. I'd like to better understand how the placements you made were just placements of retail BTPs or if you also placed other types of products such as certificates, and what's your take is on of those products and major entry fees.

Then another question about capital, but you've already answered that question. Then also, I'd like you to elaborate a bit more on capital, meaning having excess capital, such a sizable excess capital as you generate capital in a sizable way, and in a very efficient way, but it's capital that's not really working, quote, unquote.

What's your strategy? Could you elaborate in, for instance, for M&As, type of assets that you are looking at with somehow more attention, and if you have any specific assessment or valuation metrics that you are applying?

For instance, return on investments, value creation, etc.? Thank you.

Stefano Morellini

Thank you. As far as commissions are concerned, we €10 million €10.8 million in 2026, €11.5 million in the second quarter of 2026.

If you want us to give you more details, out of the €22.3 million, €6.1 million is BTPs and AUC practically. The vast majority, more than €16 million worth of commissions, fees and commissions, are from OCRs, in-house OCRs.

I think that should answer your question. As to capital, I can stress the fact that, as we've disclosed to the market more than once, we want to have a capital position enabling us to have a balance between rewarding our shareholders and at the same time have a capital endowment that is quite sound and robust because even through uncertain economic cycles, we want to be able to still grow organically.

As you could see, these are very sizable and meaningful, and they have been, especially on the loan side, but also on the funding side. This is still our strategic priority in the long term, but also they give us the necessary flexibility to carefully look into potential opportunities of growth through M&As, and this is something we are doing.

I think I gave you a way to understand why we want to have such a strong capital level. For greater technicalities, I hand it over to our CFO, Daniele.

Daniele Morlini

Good morning. From a target perspective, what we are mainly focusing on is entering areas where our network is not yet so developed, as we have done with the CR100, sorry, CR Cento.

We want to create value, meaning we want to unfold synergies, but also we want to rely on the leverage on the full ecosystem around us. That's why we look into opportunities for maybe individual product factories that could be accretive or could serve the group's growth strategy.

The models, whether you analyze it from a dividend or from a DCF model or if we were to have a transaction in cash and we look at ROI, it's one thing, and if we were to have a transaction paid with shares, it would be the dividend area to be impacted. The main thing for us is that these transactions have to be accretive EPS-wise, earning per share-wise.

Then as far as the ROE is concerned, it very much depends on the opportunities for alternative investments we may have.

Luigi Tramontana

Thank you very much for those clarification. I have just a small follow-up on a one-off item of €9 million that you accounted for in the first quarter.

Could you elaborate on what it is connected with?

Daniele Morlini

It's simply passive returns on some litigations we had and when we closed the litigations, we had money released or freed up.

Operator

Mr. Andrea Lisi with Equita, next.

Andrea Lisi

Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one is you are in de-consolidating your results, but also, well, the consolidation in the market, could it provide growth opportunities for you?

Are you already looking at some initiatives of that kind? As far as NII growth, indeed, it's a matter of rates and volumes.

Could you elaborate on what you expect as far as loans and deposit and funding are concerned from now to year-end? Also, going back to growth in commissions that you mentioned before, the commission fee levels that you currently have in the asset management segment, do you think they are sustainable for the coming quarters?

Thank you very much.

Stefano Morellini

Let me answer the first question. Yes, our growth strategy with internal organic growth also leverages consolidation.

As you could see from the results achieved in the first half, we increased our customer base by about 5% net. We are also, over these last few weeks and months before the summer holidays, we went through these opportunities.

Consolidation enabled us to, for instance, go to the provinces in the Valtellina area, where we didn't have a franchise in the past, and now we do. We opened two or three branches there.

That's an extra opportunity for growth. As far as the questions you asked about loans and funding, on the deposit or funding, as far as our guidance is concerned, loan growth, we want to retain sustainable growth pace we've already proven in 2025 around 3%.

The goal, as you saw in the first half, is to focus more on the profitability of such assets. As far as deposit and funding are concerned, the target is €4.5 billion worth of total direct and indirect funding at the end of December 2026, and €2.8 billion should be asset under management and insurance, AUM and insurance.

We are confident, and I've already said it above and beyond how markets will perform and how performance fees will steer, this will support us in the second half of the year as well, and it's one of the reasons why, as I said before, we expect a double-digit increase year-on-year.

Andrea Lisi

Thank you very much.

Operator

Mr. Morellini, for the time being, there are no more questions in the queue.

Stefano Morellini

I'd like to thank you very much for logging in, thanks for patiently following us, and we wish you the best summer holidays.

Operator

This is the Chorus Call operator. The conference call has come to an end.

You may disconnect your phones. Thank you very much.