ERG S.p.A.

ERG S.p.A.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 31, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

Welcome, and thank you for joining the ERG second quarter and first half 2026 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode.

After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paolo Merli, CEO of ERG.

Please go ahead, sir.

Paolo Merli

Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to our second quarter and first half results webcast. Here with me as usual is Michele, our CFO.

Before commenting on the economic results over the period, I'm on page number four, let me put them into context. Once again, and the same as last year, the periods, both the first half and the second quarter, were characterized by lower wind speeds than the historical average.

While Q1 was better year on year, Q2 was more or less in line or slightly lower wind speed on a year-on-year basis. Despite this, both first half and Q2 results were solid, we are very confident about our guidance for the full year.

Let me also say that it's gaining visibility. Partly also in light of some deep-dive analysis we have conducted internally regarding wind levels which make which we could expect for the second part of the year, but I'll elaborate a little bit more on that in the next chart.

Back to results, against this backdrop of low wind, the first half EBITDA was €295 million, plus 9% year on year. Let me say a solid set of results.

Even looking at Q2, notwithstanding lower productions, results were still slightly better compared to the same period last year, with EBITDA at €129 million, plus 2% year on year. The year-on-year improvement, say, mainly reflects the contribution of new assets in both both periods.

Looking more specifically at Q2, the contribution from new installed capacity basically offset the lower productions on a like-for-like basis. Then the upside came from what was overall a positive price effect due to a combination of factors that is not so easy to summarize, but let me try it.

Contrary to common belief in Italy, we had an average realizing price that was lower year on year, mainly reflecting the execution timing of hedging derivatives, contracts that, are closed typically well in advance of delivery. On the other hand, we enjoyed better selling prices in other geographies, such as Eastern Europe, USA, and UK, with the latter, I mean UK, performing very, very well as a country.

We also had a higher year-on-year contribution from capacity market in US USA, as well as from managing productions effectively during negative hours. This kind of action, in fact, in some countries, are rewarded, like in France, with the so-called complément de rémunération.

If you stop properly and timely the plants, the regulator will compensate you with a premium on top of the the tariff you are you are reimbursed anyway. All in all, say, we are very satisfied with this set of results also in the second quarter.

As far as CapEx is concerned, we increased spending year on year, both in the first half and second quarter, partly related to the acquisition of the portfolio at the beginning of the year in UK. In addition to the ongoing repowering and greenfield activities in Italy, France, and Germany regarding, say, our under-construction assets.

Let me say we are totally on track with the planned timeline and and budget. Adjusted net profit the first half of the year was €95 million, plus 15% year on year, driven basically by the higher EBITDA, and partially offset by higher depreciation and financial charges.

Net financial position at the end of June was €1.939 million, 3% higher than 25 than in 2025 year end, mainly reflecting, say, the dividend distribution, the higher CapEx, and partly compensated, say, by solid cash generation over the period. Let me move to page number five, commenting the deep-dive analysis we conducted on wind resource, given the the lack, say, of it in the the first again in the first part of the year.

Lack, lower than historical average. As I mentioned, the second quarter was still affected by this weak wind resource across Europe, as you can see from the color of the chart with blue and light blue meaning wind speed below or well below the historical average.

I think you are getting used to this to this chart. Let me now elaborate more on our internal analysis.

In June 2026, this is a fact, major global agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization, the UK Met Office, formally issued an El Niño advisory confirming that conditions have developed and will persist. There is a high likelihood, according to reports issued by these entities, that this El Niño pattern will last through the end of 2026 and persist into early spring 2027.

In light of this, we recently conducted an empirical, let me stress empirical, analysis to understand how our assets, and consequently our production levels, performed in the past during El Niño periods. We observed, and I'd like to emphasize that this analysis is empirical rather than scientific, that production generally exceeded budget during El Niño periods, as is clearly shown by the graph.

We circulated the quarters where the El Niño was, say, intense with an intensity index above 1%, 1, above 1. Of course, weather remains difficult to predict and influenced by several and complex meteorological phenomena, but this could provide, let me say, at least internally, a supportive backdrop and upside to our full year guidance.

Let's see, because in the end, it will will be as it as it is, say. Now, let me comment our achievements, say, during the period in the first half of the year, and commenting page number six.

I think we kept delivering on our strategy. On growth, we are moving on with assets under construction in line with our budget.

We energized a few weeks ago Ahorn in Germany, a 22 MW greenfield wind farm. I'm happy to say that we successfully integrated the acquired portfolio in UK, 73 MW, into our operations, and I think the results can speak by themselves.

On top of this, we now have about 300 MW under construction, mostly wind repowering for 200 MW, some wind greenfields, France and Germany, and a revamping program for a portfolio of 60 MW photovoltaic assets in Italy. When talking about revamping, PV revamping, installed capacity, I want to be sure the message is clear, installed capacity will remain unchanged, but given the cutting-edge technology with new panels and trackers, we expect a significant increase in productions which will enjoy the incentives of Conto Energia until the end of the scheme.

Our pipeline is moving on very well as well. The objective to secure building permits for a material amount of projects that you should remember was our priority, one of our priority for 20 2026, is gaining visibility.

We can now rely on 570 MW fully authorized, 330 wind repowering, not just in Italy, but also in France and Germany and and UK, and 240 MW BESS. For For sure, in the next months, we'll be working hard to get these assets ready for the next auction, in particular, I'm talking about Italian assets, FER X for wind and MACSE for BESS.

Regarding BESS, in full transparency, we are also looking to alternative route to market based on tolling agreements or a mixture of merchant and the tolling and so. We are studying this let me say the best route to market scheme to optimize the value creation.

For sure, we'll be working on that in the second part of the year. On route to market, we continued during the the semester our path of signing long-term PPAs.

Others others contracts are under negotiation with, never say never, but we hope to deliver more on this by the end of the year. On finance, this is already new known is already known, Fitch reaffirmed our investment-grade rating and stable outlook.

We renegotiated around €500 million of funding through European Investment Bank, CDP, and other bank facilities. Finally, we are proud of having received during the period important external recognition of our ESG performance, which are listed here in the chart, and according to which ERG remains Tier 1 in all in all ratings.

Now over to Michele for his comments on Q2 and the first half results.

Michele Pedemonte

Thank you, Paolo, and good afternoon. I'd like to start with the observation of the electricity demand trend in the first half of the year.

After a long period of stagnating demand, we see positive signs of recovery in all countries where we operate. This is driven by climate factors, industrial demand growth, and the first effects of the electrification of the demand.

It is in line with the forecasts of all the major industry experts that see a structural upward trend for the power demand in the medium to long term. Looking at the spot power markets in the second quarter, prices were higher year on year in all countries where we operate.

This trend leads to an increase in unitary revenues in most countries, even if the impact on our unitary revenues was only partial, reflecting the quasi-regulated nature of our portfolio, where a large share of volume is already secured through PPAs and CFDs or covered by our two-years rolling hedging policy. I would like to highlight the higher capture price in UK, driven by our newly acquired assets in England, which benefit from Renewable Obligation Certificates.

On the other hand, we see unitary revenues decreasing in Italy, mainly driven by short-term hedging at lower price and by the reduction of the green incentive. Moving to the production, in the second quarter, ERG generated 1.6 TWh, 2% lower than previous year, following the low windiness trend already recorded in 2025 in most countries.

We are still recording production well below the long-term historical average of our assets, as already commented by Paolo. The production of the quarter is also affected by higher grid curtailment.

This effect was partially compensated by the production of the new asset, with roughly 70 MW of additional capacity contributing during the quarter. In the second quarter, we have almost doubled the production in UK, mainly thanks to the new acquisition in England and to the production of new greenfield plant entered in operation in Northern Ireland at the end of the year.

The first half, the production is 3.9 TWh, 0.3 TWh higher than previous year, mainly driven by higher windiness in the first quarter of the year. In the second quarter, EBITDA reached 1.

€129 million, a slight increase against the second quarter 2025. The positive perimeter effects was offset by slightly lower production and lower capture prices in Italy and France.

Thanks to the last acquisition in England and the new greenfield plant in Northern Ireland and some recovery in windiness, the UK doubled the EBITDA the previous year. On the other hand, Italy is impacted by lower hedging prices and green incentives in the comparison with second quarter 2025.

In first half, group's result is €25 million higher than previous year, mainly driven by first quarter results. I comment now on investments.

In the second quarter, we invested €4 €54 million, mainly for ongoing activities on repowering projects in France, Germany, and Italy, and for the construction of greenfield plants in Germany and France. In the first half, the investment stands at €203 million, of which €115 million related to the acquisition in UK.

Finally, let's take a look at the cash flow statement and the net financial position. The net financial debt at the end of the quarter is €1.9 billion, in line with expectation, and €57 million up versus the end of 2025, thanks to the EBITDA cash generation and the disposal of the Swedish assets in January compensated by investment of the period.

In the second quarter, the net financial position is impacted by €115 million of dividends paid to our shareholders. Thank you for your time.

Now, I leave the floor to Paolo for his final comments.

Paolo Merli

Thank you, Michele. I like to wind up this presentation by providing you with our updated guidance for the full year.

Very simple, very easy, we are confirming all predictions, the solid set of results over the first half of the year, and reasonable optimism about wind in the second part of the year. Based on the analysis I outlined earlier, make our guidance more visible than before.

That's the positive message behind my comment. EBITDA for as far as EBITDA is concerned, we confirm our range of 520, 590.

We are now, of course, a little bit more optimistic about the final outcome. CapEx is expected within a range of 330, 380, and includes just the M&A UK, and the organic investment that should accelerate in the second half of the year as the site works are entering the core phase of their process.

Finally, at year end, we expect a net financial position within the same range, 1.95, 2.05, which include the CapEx and the already paid ordinary dividend of €1 per share. We are now ready to take your questions, and thanks for listening.

Operator

This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2.

We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time.

We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Alex Braunshausen with Bank of America.

Please go ahead.

Alex Braunshausen

Hi. Thanks for taking my question.

I've got two, if I may. Just regarding your capacity addition, I think over the last couple of months or couple of quarters, I think you just had to firm up a little bit more your plan regarding your strategic ambition and capital deployment.

I think we should still have, if I'm not mistaken, a strategic update for the full year 2026, in a little less perhaps than six months. Given that you've got 300 MW of asset under construction, any kind of early view regarding organic capacity addition for 26 and 27 perhaps, and if you had been able to accelerate or initiate your plans regarding battery storage?

Then secondly, if I may, regarding your recent PPA with Statkraft, I'm just wondering the rationale here in signing with Statkraft for seven years and not perhaps keeping this capacity to put those assets back into a FER X auction and a repowering angle? Is that just because the price paid by Statkraft is quite interesting, because the assets are perhaps less interesting to repower?

Any color on that end would be interesting. Thank you.

Paolo Merli

Alex, thank you for the questions. Let me start with the last one.

Let me try to find the data about the deployment of megawatts currently under construction. About the the PPA, let me specify that all the production that has been sold through this PPA is coming from existing assets, assets that are not allowed to take part to the FER X because are old assets, not new ones.

Instead, our strategy for new new developments is towards the FER X for sure. All the new the assets that have been already fully authorized, like, for instance, Nubifloaghe, which is the biggest project we have in our portfolio right now, 120 MW, that is fully authorized, it will take part to the FER X auction, absolutely, as as long as the other new assets.

About the capacity, I don't know, Michele, if you have already found So right now, let me just elaborate a little bit more on the breakdown of the 300 MW. We are talking about out of the 300 MW under construction, say, 200 MW comes come from repowering projects, especially in Italy, where we have Calentini and Grece Monte Gutto for a total of 130 MW, more or less, a little bit more, and then other projects that are in Germany and France for a total of 65, 70 MW.

All in all, say, 200 MW. Then we have three projects currently under construction are greenfield, two in Germany for a total amount of 28 MW, and one in France, 25 MW.

Then part of the megawatts under construction are referring to solar revamping, which means changing completely the trackers, not changing, insert, say, the trackers where there are not yet, and change the panels with cutting-edge technology that can have a higher efficiency. This will not translate into higher megawatts, because we are simply changing the technology, but the project itself got a very high return, because according to the Italian regulation, all this project the increase of production coming from this revamping is allowed to benefit from the Conto Energia tariff for an extended period, included the downtime downtime needed to make the the investments.

It's a very high-return investments, let's say, low double-digit return, which is a good quite good one for this kind of investments. I don't know, Michele.

Michele Pedemonte

Regarding the megawatts in construction, we have a small portion, around 20 MW, 23 MW, that will enter in operation by the end of this year.

Paolo Merli

Plus Ahorn that already entered Ahorn, yeah.

Michele Pedemonte

In addition to what is already entered, I'm speaking. Future, of future megawatts, the bulk of the project currently in construction will enter, progress will be in construction during 2027, roughly 250 MW will enter in operation during next year.

There is small portion, beginning of 2028, of 25 MW. The largest part is expecting 2027 during various months during the year.

Alex Braunshausen

Thank you. Maybe if I can just do a follow-up on the PPA question.

Given the improved power prices curve that we've seen in the recent week and months, could we have an update on your overall hedging levels, or perhaps, the merchant exposure that you see on the portfolio following this PPA for 27 and 28, in particular for Italy?

Paolo Merli

Just give a second to find the data.

Michele Pedemonte

We have 2026, we have an open position for the remaining months of the year overall of around 0.7 TWh, while for 2027, we have above 2 TWh still exposed

Paolo Merli

to the Two. Two,

Michele Pedemonte

above 2, 2.2, more precisely. This 2.2 will be a part of this 2.2 regarding 2027 will be hedged in the next few months, because that we have this rolling hedge policy that at the end of the day has a final target that before we enter a specific year, we want to have 80% of our production hedged, considering all the tools for hedging that we have in our hands, CFD, PPAs, and short-term hedging.

Then normally we expect to enter the new year with something between 1 TWh and 1.5 TWh exposed to merchant production.

Alex Braunshausen

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Emanuele Oggioni

Good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation and taking my questions. The first one is an update on Q3.

You mentioned already the outlook for H2, but as regards the Q3 and the start of the Q3, July, probably you had already the numbers, the update on the start of this quarter. Second question is on the US operation.

I saw a recovery in Q2, both in for production and for pricing in for the market overall. Some other players are very buoyant on the outlook on the US, what are your opinion and linked to the apart the operation per se of this asset base, but as regards the development, the future development, I think you are still exploring further opportunities to increase your footprint in the country?

Thank you. I'd say,

Paolo Merli

thank you, Emanuele, for your questions. I'd say about July, I can say that we are in line with our budget or slightly above.

Volumes are still suffering a little bit from low wind, let's say, a little bit lower than the historical average, but this gap is fully or more than compensated by higher prices. We are absolutely in line or even better than our budget embedded, let's say, in our guidance for the full year.

About US, yes, for sure, the second quarter was better than Q1, but as I had the chance to say during the last webcast, the Q1 was affected by a mixture of events, all negative, unfortunately, that reduced the economic performance of our portfolio, in particular, we had some congestions for external forces, let's say, all around the node where our plant, the wind plant, is connected, and that had an effect on the settlement of the PPA, which is based on the differential between real-time price and the day-ahead price. That's a little bit complex, but was in our feeling is that was a quite extraordinary situation, and I mentioned it during the last webcast.

The second quarter situation normalized as it was in the two previous year, 25 and 24, 2024. Now that the portfolio is performing in line with our expectations.

Regarding the potential growth in US, we are still working with our partner, Apex. We are now discussing some potential, say, acquisitions, but as the preferential right we have in place with them, it's a sort of first look on their assets, then still the rule is the rule of the M&A.

Never say never till the end. We are discussing with them, and we share your view that US is an interesting market, and demand is growing and is growing faster than in Europe, probably driven by data centers, cryptocurrency, or whatever kind of techs.

Our objective remain to increase our positioning in US, and we are working on this. This is will be part for sure of the next business plan.

I confirm will be presented in the first part of 2027.

Emanuele Oggioni

If I may follow up on this, you mentioned, in fact, in the press release, the Capital Market Day in H1 '27 also, which will be based also on the outcome of MACSE and FER X auctions in Italy expected by the end of this year. The question is, what are your expectation about the to these two auctions in Italy?

Paolo Merli

I'd say we are very positive on the last FER X decree that was finally approved by the European Commission, because if you look at it, you will notice that 2/3 of the entire capacity that is expected to be deployed over the next three years is more concentrated on wind. Out of the 27 GW of installed capacity that is expected in the next three years through auctions, 16.5 is wind, just 10 is PV.

We think this is a wise reflection from the regulator, because the market needs, in our opinion, more wind than solar right now, because solar keep producing in the daily hours, while energy is needed all around the 24 hours. This makes us positive in terms of the expectation of for the next auction, and we are more positive than the last FER X auction.

You remember that the target price for wind is €85 per megawatt hour. It's a pay-as-produced tariff, which will translate, let me say, in 95 in terms of baseload.

It's an equivalent of 95 and yeah, reparametrized, let's say, in terms of baseload. The last auction, the clearing price was 75, €10 less than the target.

The target has been reconfirmed, and if the volumes they are looking for are the one written in the decree, we are quite confident that the price should fall nearby, say, the target tariff, which, I repeat, is 85. For the time being, we have roughly for sure, 200 MW completely authorized in terms of wind, but also we have another three projects that got the VIA, VIA is the environmental impact assessment, which is the condition needed to take part to the auctions.

All in all, we could participate to the next FER X auction with 350 MW for wind. Then we have a similar amount, maybe slightly less, for BESS.

Even though, let me be totally transparent, we are also studying alternative route to market when talking about BESS, because the last clearing price for BESS was not as good as we thought, the returns associated to this kind of project were very low single digit, and we are quite confident that maybe through other route to markets, a mixture of tolling and merchant, could be the best way to maximize the return and the flexibility of this kind of investment, which is quite complementary to the renewable asset generation. Anyway, we accredited all these assets to the MACSE auction, because in the end, we are flexible to bid at whatever price we believe is needed for getting our returns.

We'll see the outcome of the auction, and if it's not satisfying, we will work on other route to markets. I hope, Emanuele, to have covered your question.

Emanuele Oggioni

Yes. Thank you, Paolo.

Paolo Merli

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Roberto Letizia with Equita. Please go ahead.

Roberto Letizia

Yes, good evening. Thanks a lot for the presentations.

I would like to ask Paolo a view on the most recent trend in the power price. We all know the main drivers of the very high increase, and the forward curve has started also to increase through the whole year, since few months ago, we only saw the first quarter of next year increasing significantly, but nowadays, we are seeing the whole curve moving up through to December next year upwards in a significant way.

Can you spend a few words, maybe elaborate on what's your view about possibly evolution of power prices '27, '28? Then, if you can please split the hedging of '27 by country in order to get what the sense of the Italian and other countries exposure to the variation of market price?

Thanks a lot.

Paolo Merli

Roberto, try to make my best to answer your question. I'd say let me start.

The European Commission was working on a revision of the ETS mechanism, and they came out with, in our opinion, minor changes, and in fact, in the trading market, the immediate ETS market, the certificate still trades above €80 per ton. First comment is we still expect a strong sign from the ETS going forward, because based on the fundamental analysis, the price that is needed to switch from car from coal to gas is in the region of €70, €80 per ton, and the one that will be needed in the future maybe to switch from gas to hydrogen is above €100 per ton.

That's why the market was pointing in this direction. Then the commodities, the TTF price today, got here my screen in front of me, is almost €60 per megawatt hour thermal megawatt hour, you have to multiply by two.

It means that whenever gas is needed to cover the demand, prices will be above, for sure, €100 per megawatt hour, well above, because 60 multiply by two plus 1/3, say, of the cost of the ETS, you arrive more in the region of €150. Of course, if you look at the forward markets, they are pointing lower than that, because probably they expect this situation not to last forever, but anyway, even in the medium-long term, forwards are now pointing at an higher value compared to few months ago.

We are positive, but let me be honest, in our guidance, even the short-term, we are not assuming the last forward even for the second part of '26, if not, the upside would be more. Of course, this upside is strictly related to the presence of wind, and then to the presence of production.

We confirm our guidance, but we are certainly more optimistic today than we were a few months ago when we provided our last guidance during the first quarter results. Back then, our best estimate, say, was in the middle of middle lower part of the range.

Today, it is in the upper middle part of the range. From that perspective, you can take it as the guidance has been improved, even though the range itself remains unchanged.

I can remember if

Michele Pedemonte

The detail about the hedging split by countries, I'll try to answer on regarding explaining detailing the merchant portion, the part that is not covered by hedging. In Italy, for the remaining part of the year, we have 0.2, roughly, TWh still exposed to merchant, starting from August, minor figures in France and Spain, and 0.1 in Eastern Europe, and 0.2 in UK.

Regarding the next year, '27, merchant exposure for Italy is 0.7, 0.3 in France, 0.1 in Germany, 0.2 in Spain, 0.6 in Eastern Europe, and 0.3 in UK, to give you some overall and rough figures. The average hedging price that we expect for 2027, we expect in line with 2026, because we expect to that the hedging that we are going to close in the next months over 2027 will benefit of the current level of the price, and so we will end up with an average hedging price more or less in line with the current hedging price that we have in 2026, or maybe a bit higher than the 2026 levels.

Operator

The next question is from Beatrice Gianola with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Beatrice Gianola

Yes, good afternoon everybody, and many thanks for taking my questions. I guess my point is on the evident acceleration in the permitting process for renewable projects in Italy.

We are seeing a number of positive developments reported in the press recently. I was wondering how are you seeing this evolution?

Is this something that could eventually impact the timing of your business plan? Do you believe that this may lead you to consider presenting the BP ahead of your current plans?

Then I had a follow-up on the US. You mentioned before ongoing discussions about potential acquisitions.

Was wondering if you could provide more color on which type of assets you might consider. Thank you so much.

Paolo Merli

First one about the timing of permitting. Yes, Beatrice, you're right.

The timing, even though maybe it's not yet as the operators would like, but I confirm that they are the speed of the permitting is accelerating, and now there is a huge pressure also from consumers, Confindustria, asking for more renewable in order to lower the price on the day-ahead market, on the wholesale market. In our case, as I said, we have a huge pipeline basically already approved or near to be approved, at least by the end of the year.

In particular, I confirm that the permitting process associated to battery storage, BESS, if you prefer, is much quicker than wind process. For us, the main theme remain the route to market.

We have already enough, let me joke, of assets already authorized. Now, we need to secure the route to market before making the final investment decision on this project, because all in all, as we reported in the press release and here in the presentation, we have 570 MW basically already authorized, not just in Italy, but also France, Germany, UK, plus further 400 or something like that that are very, very close to be authorized.

Maybe they got already the environmental impact assessment, and so on. We should reasonably expect to get the final authorization by the end of the year.

Now, the point for us is to secure the route to market through auction systems, through PPA, through whatever mechanism that can, say, stabilize the revenues over a long period of time consistently with the infrastructure this kind of infrastructure investments. For doing this, we need to wait in Italy, for instance, the FER X and MACSE auctions, and both these schemes are expected to be by the end of the year, probably November, December.

That's why we prefer to wait for the outcome of these auctions before announcing the plan, because depends also on the outcome for us of these auctions. This is was I hope to have covered your first question.

The second, the kind of assets, the color, I don't know, it's still wind. We are talking about wind or solar assets.

We are still talking about the MISO market, which is the one we know better. We are still talking about an acquisition of assets already at COD.

The approach we are using in US is to have an acquisition of a completely de-risked asset, which means fully constructed, fully in operation, with a long-term PPA, and if it's the case, a tax equity scheme already closed. That's the three conditions we are looking for when dealing with Apex about new acquisitions.

That was a part also of the agreements we signed with them a couple of years ago. Now, we are working on a couple of projects, and we will see in the next months if there is a deal or not.

We are not obliged to do it. We want to do it at the condition we consider fair for our portfolio.

Operator

The next question comes from Francesco Sala with Banca Akros. Please go ahead.

Francesco Sala

Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. The first two are on curtailments.

I wonder whether you can give us the economic impact and/or probably of curtailments in Q2. Secondly, if we should expect more curtailments in the next at least one or two quarters.

I know it's a very difficult thing to predict, but what is at the best of your, let's say, capabilities, what should we expect in terms of curtailments, at least in the short, mid-term? Secondly, about the performance in the UK, very good sale prices.

I wonder whether it's, let's say, some unhedged production that was available at the right time, or whether there is something more structural about electricity prices there? Thank you.

Paolo Merli

Okay. About the curtailments, yes, I confirm curtailments is a or as they like to call them dispatch-down orders are something that are a trend that is growing over time.

We had a quite significant curtailments during the second quarter. In fact, when you see the production all in all, you see that it's a little bit lower than the same period last year, but is fully due to curtailments, not because of the wind.

Wind was more or less in line with last year. Part of them are refunded, reimbursed, some of them not.

The impact, I can tell you the number for the first half, we had an impact of roughly €8 million in our portfolio in the first half. Let me say that part of this €8 million will be recovered in few years, I don't know exactly when, but a part are related to the Conto Energia, for instance, in the PV associated to PV assets in Italy, and according to the rules, the incentives will be recovered at the end of the scheme period.

It's not lost forever, but is deferred in time. You're right so that the curtailments are growing, and part of them, we think, were related to specific works on grids.

In the second part of the year, we expect a little bit lower number in our forecast. The UK, yeah, prices are very good.

UK and Italy are the two markets where wholesale prices are higher, much higher than in other countries, and for sure, we are enjoying this business environment. In particular, UK, you probably had the chance to see the performance of UK was fantastic during the period, both the first half and the second quarter.

We had roughly €17 million more coming from the perimeter, from the new assets that are performing very well, because we have the 73 MW that we acquired early this year that enjoy the ROC, the Renewable Origin Certificates, and also the Corlackey wind farm in Northern Ireland, which was developed organically by the company, enjoyed a much, much higher price fixed in a PPA, in a long-term PPA, because this PPA was negotiated in a much better price environment compared the other two assets we have in Northern Ireland. I hope to have covered your questions.

Francesco Sala

Yeah. Yes.

Many thanks.

Paolo Merli

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Davide Candela with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.

Davide Candela

Hi, gentlemen. Good afternoon.

Thank you for the presentation and taking my question. I have three.

First one, a follow-up on curtailments as a more general view. As you said that this trend is growing, and likely as more renewable capacity will join the generation, this will grow further.

Was wondering if you can share what a company like ERG is doing in order to contain this kind of risk, meaning that is there something in your energy management approach, or the potential hybridization with BESS could be a solution? Just a broader view on that.

Second question on the pipeline. You provided an overview in your slide six on the short-term pipeline, but I was wondering if you could share the broader view on your biggest part of the pipeline that also goes into 2027 and onward in order to at least value what is your sizing and where maybe.

Related to that, and to grow, in the last result presentation, you mentioned the opportunity to potentially issue a hybrid. I was wondering if this potential issue is tied to maybe market condition that could be good in a certain period of time, or these are strictly tied to the growth potential you might have in your hand given the, of course, route to market, the visibility on the pipeline, authorizations, and so on.

Thank you. I'd say,

Paolo Merli

about curtailments, there is not much you can do to reduce the curtailments, because the curtailments is an external force and is decided, say, by the TSO, which has the discretionally to ask the operators to dispatch down their energy when it's not needed into the system. The discussion is on a different level.

We are discussing with Terna and GSE in Italy, for instance, to have the fair reimbursement for these curtailments which are not under our management and are under our control. We think it's should be a temporary effect, because we know that investments on the grids are needed, to make the grid empowered to accept the higher penetration of renewables.

Michele Pedemonte

For instance, what we are doing in Northern Ireland, which is one of the few country where curtailments are not refunded at all, are not reimbursed at all, we are fully exposed to this risk, we are discussing with the TSO there in order to gain, say, the qualification said firm connection. It's a title that allow the operator to be reimbursed.

We are discussing about this, and along with this, we are also discussing some measures they can take in order to reduce the curtailments going forward. In particular, they are investing in a cable connecting the Northern Ireland and Ireland in order to transport the energy, because the problem is that area is long of production, because there are a lot of renewable, and not enough demand.

The trick or the solution can come from connecting, strengthening the connection between Northern Ireland and Ireland in order to increase the demand in this area. They are doing this.

It would it takes time, but we're working with them to find a better solution than now to fill, the time gap between fixing the supply and demand unbalancer we are living now, and a fair remuneration for this kind of reimbursement. Said that, the assets are performing quite well anyway, but they could perform even better without these curtailments.

Just to give you a number, in the first half of the year, we had 57 GWh of curtailments in Northern Ireland. If you multiply by, more or less, €60 or even more, can realize that it's a €3 million economic effect in our P&L.

Paolo Merli

We could improve quite substantially the economics of these investments.

Michele Pedemonte

Regarding hybrid, we see this tool as a potential tool to finance an acceleration of our growth. We are having the access to the debt capital market, we can potentially exploit also this tool.

For sure, we'll monitor the market, because we are not obliged to issue an hybrid bond, but could be an option together with, for example, alternatively, an asset rotation proceeds from asset rotation. These could be financial tools available to sustain the growth of our portfolio, also in the light of potential development on battery storage or wind repowering that we see possible in 2027 in particularly in Italy, thanks to the FER X and MACSE auction that are or other alternative route to market, as mentioned by Paolo before.

Again, hybrids is a tool that we can lever on to fuel our growth at an accelerated pace.

Paolo Merli

Pipeline, let's say, we have already said that we have roughly a pipeline of 5 GW, but as we had the chance to say during the webcast for the full year results of 2025, we are focused on roughly 700 MW, which are the part of the pipeline more advanced. Please consider that 700 MW split, say, more or less 50/50 wind and BESS, it means €700, €800 million of CapEx, which is a quite sizable amount, and we would be more than happy, say, by the end of the year to have visibility on this part of the pipeline.

Then you have to consider a time lag between the route to market closing, say, through auctions or through PPA, the investments, the deployment of the investments take at least a couple of years from, say, as of the final investment decision. Let me joke a little bit.

If we answered all these questions, you wouldn't leave us anything to say during the business plan. We are working on that in order to fulfill your assumptions for the years to come, and we will be working hard on this in the second part of the year.

We think in March more March, probably, when presenting the full year results, we'll be also ready to present the business plan with all the details.

Davide Candela

Okay. Thank you.

Paolo Merli

Thank you. More welcome.

Welcome, your questions. I think we

Operator

Mr. Merli, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Paolo Merli

Thank you very much for listening, and happy summer. See you in the second part of the year.

Bye.

Michele Pedemonte

Thank you. Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over.

You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.