SFC Energy AG

SFC Energy AG

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Nov 13Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 24, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the SFC Energy AG publication of the preliminary figures 2025 conference call. I'm Moritz, your Chorus Call operator.

I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session.

You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and 0.

The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Dr.

Peter Podesser, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Peter Podesser

Thank you very much, Moritz, for the kind introduction. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

Thank you very much to all of you for taking the time here for the first time in in this calendar year to join us for our presentation for the preliminary numbers and at the same time also the publication and the presentation of the guidance and outlook for 2026. Together with my colleague, Daniel, we will present you the key elements of the preliminary, unaudited numbers so far and naturally also look forward to our question-and-answer session after this.

Let me start off with let's say a critical and quick look back. I think we're looking back at 2025 as a year definitely of of challenges, but also a year of consolidation.

At the same time also, I think we have made good use of this period here for a further strategic alignment and and focusing ahead of a starting era of growth again. Back to growth I think is also what we see here with our last quarter of the year 2025, the fourth quarter with about €40 million of revenue, also recording the strongest quarter during this year, also with decent profitability.

At the end of the day, if we look at the growth drivers here in the closeout of the year, we are looking again at our industrial fuel cell business here with, I'd say, the known end markets. We are also looking at the European power management business.

Besides, let's say, consolidation, I think with a clear focus and and and we, I'd say, allocated the the right resources to further implement implement the long-term strategy during 2025, looking at two elements from today's point of view. One is really expanding our international footprint further, the international presence, the customer proximity, but then at the same time, I think, again investing into our competitive advantage, our competitive strength through technological leadership, through new, attractive products introduced into the markets.

Let me look into the international element first: expanding our footprint by establishing a more significant site in Orem, Salt Lake City, establishing and preparing also for the local production in the US. Again, driven by the need for customer proximity, the expectations of our US customer base, but at the same time naturally also shielding us as relatively well then against, I'd say, tariff and other trade hurdle implications over time with a local supply chain to be built up.

Looking at, let's say, the asset that we some time ago also purchased here in in Denmark, in the hydrogen fuel cell business, I think we have turned this into an operating and profitable hydrogen fuel cell business with a customer base in critical infrastructure from telecom to data network operators. The third one, yeah, the the planned strategic investment here into our partner Oneberry in Singapore, where we expect to close, I'd say, in the near future, creating a regional hub for the further expansion in Asia, but also giving us and allowing us access to a fast-growing Security as a Service business here with government customers.

On the technology end, I think apart from, let's say, the the existing product suite, I think especially in Defense & Security, we have two new offerings that are already contributing, that that already have contributed to the business here in a low single-digit million format: the one, maybe new for for for some of you, a defense power supply platform developed together with a a French OEM here out of our power management business in Denmark for laser applications, portable and and land- or vehicle-based lasers, one of the key applications, drone defense. We are showing this since yesterday as one of the news here also at the Enforce Tac in in Nuremberg, and have quite some positive feedback also from, let's say, not the not just the existing users, the existing customers, but also from potential new OEMs.

The second one, [cough] in Canada, we have invested a good 2 years of of collaboration here with a customer developing what we call the EFOY Pro Shelter, an Arctic power and energy solution shelter-based for extreme climate and temperature exposure below -40° C with extremely long autonomy, between 12 and 36 months of autonomy. The first two systems are already deployed in the northern part of Canada, the the northern border also of Canada.

Totally, we expect here from both product lines a scaling effect already, I'd say, in the running year with the existing customers, but definitely also new customers. If we look into the Arctic energy supply, naturally there are other regions in the world where we see already explicit demand.

There is, with all of this, a structural shift in our business towards defense as well as the public and civilian security applications. If we look at all of this, in 2025, this all added up to almost 50% of the total group revenues, with existing products scaling, but also new products now contributing to to further growth.

We see significant momentum in this field of the business, naturally also against the known geopolitical situation. As per today, we are, I'd say, unfortunately seeing the fourth year of of war ongoing here in the Ukraine.

What do we expect here? Significant preparation for OEM programs in the defense sector, mostly auxiliary power systems, either for vehicle or dismounted applications, but we are also looking at, let's say, the general hybrid energy solutions as a need for resilient and dependable power.

It's, at the end, a combination of of our fuel cells with batteries and and wherever possible also with solar capabilities. We also expect a a regional growth in this sector, and I think important also for all of us who have or for all of you who have witnessed with us also the delays in programs in India, the last recent discussions over over over the last couple of weeks here in India, we see a, I'd say, a a resumption of some of those programs happening also near term at at least during the course of the year.

The expectation here for this part of the business to increase to approximately 15% to 20% of the revenue seems realistic. Then also if we add the the civilian security part, all the Security as a Service business, I think we also see 60% as a mark here to be reached within this year of the total group's revenue as realistic sales with products and solutions with attractive margins.

Daniel will go into this in a second. Apart from this, we also expect our industrial business to contribute and deliver, let's say, organic growth here across the fuel cell as well as the power management business.

If we also look at the order intake, there we also see a return to growth, with the fourth quarter recording about €40 million of order intake, which was the highest intake of all quarters of last year. We have seen also a dynamic development in the recent, I'd say, 2 months, also first part of the first part of 2026.

We see several major projects out for decision within the foreseeable future. Based on all of this, we expect a very strong first half of 2026 in terms of overall visibility.

If we now look into the sales and earnings of 2025 in a more concrete way, yes, we are seeing sales of €143.3 million at at almost the same level of 2024, 1% down. This is slightly below the lower end of the target corridor we had published also by November.

I think also a conscious decision from our side not to overstretch, let's say, revenues and push projects here in the last weeks of the year simply at the cost of impacted margins. We also see this in the profitability of the fourth quarter, and naturally also we see the the overall factors leading to this €143 million not reaching the original plan for last year.

If we look at the major deviations, I mentioned it already: we had to digest delays in defense projects in India impacting our Asian business. The overall uncertainty, also macroeconomic uncertainty, also delaying decision-making processes hurt us in the new business development in the US.

Finally, I think we delivered still an organic growth of of around 20%, which per se is is nothing bad, but still behind the historical growth numbers in the US, but also below, I'd say, our own expectations. The third element, currencies, functional currencies going against the euro here, had also an impact naturally on our euro-based group's revenue.

With this, I think I would hand over to Daniel to lead you through the earnings part of the preliminary numbers.

Daniel Saxena

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the call.

Neither wanted to repeat the last quarter's discussions nor preempting the discussion that we will have. I think the major drivers when it comes to earnings this year were characterized by high losses from exchange rate translation, and high cost for the implementation of our ERP system on a group level, as well as investment in IT security.

I think this is the overall topic that we've discussed in the last quarters, and I think this is also the topic that we're looking at in the fourth quarter, with some slight changes and what seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. You've seen our adjusted EBITDA, which is €16.7 million, translating into a margin of 11.6%, and our adjusted EBIT, which amounts to €8.9 million, translating into a margin of 6.2%.

Both of these key financial indicators are slightly above the higher end of our latest forecast, which we published in November. One of the reasons for the better performance in the fourth quarter than we anticipated, I think is the product mix in the fourth quarter, which was quite favorable.

The second one is a good price implementation that we had, especially in SFC Netherlands as well as SFC Canada, but also SFC Germany. Then we had some, to a small extent, one-time effects, all of this leading to a slightly higher gross margin than we anticipated in the worst case in our last forecast in November.

Also, what we saw in the fourth quarter is that for the first time in 2025, we had a balanced result from exchange rate losses, i.e., the losses were relatively low in the fourth quarter, which also helped, there was not a significant negative impact from other operating expenses. Allover, keeping costs at a decent level also helped in generating the slightly higher EBITDA and EBIT.

We see that the margins are, and that is not a big surprise, below what we have seen in 2024. We're looking, as I mentioned before, at EBITDA margin of 11.6%, still a double-digit one, but apparently away from the 15.2% that we saw in 2024, and also slightly lower of what we anticipated for the given reasons that we have discussed in the first 9 months already of the last year.

I think to make a summary, and we'll discuss the results much more in detail once we publish our final numbers, wouldn't say necessarily super happy result for 2024 2025, but still we're seeing in the fourth quarter some factors really driving our profits up again. Most of it being apparently the gross margin, which goes straight into the EBITDA margin.

Very short and brief from me this time, and I'll pass it back to Peter.

Peter Podesser

Also from my side, now looking into, I think, the guidance and the outlook for the year, we, I think, can give a confident outlook based on facts for 2026 after, I'd say, the challenges, I think, we had to address last year, as mentioned just before. At the end, we see still a consistent increase of energy demand for dependable, resilient, and sustainable energy, decentralized applications driving, let's say, our customers' needs.

At the same time, I mentioned this before, we have the structural shift here in our business to the defense, public, and civilian security business with the existing customers, existing products, but also new and scaling applications, and some significant decisions still pending in this area. Regionally, we expect larger impetus coming from the European and Asian, especially Southeast Asia, but also a rebound in India, bringing a significant growth impulse.

We are not neglecting the risk. I think we are still operating under a challenging, overall macroeconomic environment.

Geopolitics drives to a certain extent naturally our customers' needs. We still see tariff risks and trade policy and trade hurdles being a factor to be, let's say, also assessed.

At the same time, we have, I think, also experienced a certain shielding in some of our core businesses, and by localizing, especially in the US and having already localized in India, we also see a shielding out of this. Overall, we expect a healthy growth.

The corridor we see, let's say, between €150 million and €160 million of revenue for 2026, with the Clean Energy segment growing slightly faster as also historically seen. At the same time, we also see an overproportional impact on margins and improvement of margins.

Daniel has mentioned also the effects already in Q4. We are consistently also expecting a proper implementation here, but also an operational leverage by growth.

At the same time, we're not neglecting the risk here of precious metal prices developments and also currency risk. The range we are seeing as a target range is an EBITDA adjusted between €20 million and €24 million for 2026, and on the EBIT adjusted level here on group's results, we expect the range between €11 million and €15 million as the realistic and right range from today's point of view.

After a year of consolidation, you see us here with, I would say, a sensible planning, a realistic view for risks and opportunities. At the same time, we see ourselves back at the growth trajectory needed and doable.

I think we are also, let's say, as mentioned, seeing a number of initiatives, let's say, that have been worked on for quite some time, also during the last year, coming to a decision-making stage. With this, I would like to conclude here and hand back to Moritz to open the floor for the Q&A session.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touchtone telephone.

You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2.

Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time.

One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from Karsten von Blumenthal from First Berlin Equity Research.

Please go ahead.

Karsten von Blumenthal

Good morning, Peter, and good morning, Daniel. Happy to hear that especially regarding margins, EBITDA margins, EBIT margin, you are back on track.

It's better than I expected in Q4, and Daniel mentioned the reasons for this. My first question is regarding the US business.

Peter, you said that overall in 2025, you grew roughly 20%. As far as I remember, in the first 9 months, the US growth was roughly 29%.

There's an indication that Q4 in the US was relatively subdued. Is that right?

Peter Podesser

Good morning, Karsten. Peter here.

I think what we see here is some shifts between quarters. I think it is not something that we see a slowdown here.

I think what we saw in the third quarter was, let's say, the softest demand, in the fourth quarter coming back again and also, let's say, a much broader customer base. Getting in or starting the year with a significant dependence from our largest customer, I think we now have started to, let's say, see that the distribution of the customer base becoming broader and broader.

At the end, what you also see naturally, if we look at the 20% growth, and this might be also some differential here, we'll look into this offline, this is naturally after currency effects. We are seeing, let's say, 19% to 20% growth.

Karsten von Blumenthal

All right. That helps, and happy to hear that your customer base has broadened.

Could you give us a bit more details regarding the state-of-the-art of your US production site? What has happened in the last few months?

Where are you exactly? Could you shed some light on that?

Daniel Saxena

Yeah. We have, let's say, continued with the hiring, the training of people.

We had them over here, we had them in Romania. The classical preparation work, all systems are in place, ERP system is up and running, and pilot production can, let's say, start any day.

At this point in time, I think we feel well prepared here for delivering, and this will be a major shift, products for the US now out of our Orem facility as of this quarter.

Karsten von Blumenthal

Perfect. In this quarter, I'm happy to hear that.

I remember that last time we talked about your relatively high working capital. That is nothing we have now discussed with the preliminaries, but have you perhaps a qualitative update on your working capital?

Were you able to improve your position there?

Daniel Saxena

Hi, Karsten. We've not been able to improve our position significantly in the fourth quarter.

Overall, I think from our call which we had in mid of November, working capital is still at a decently high level. Most of the components, if you look at the inventory, there's nothing old in there, I mentioned it already in November.

A lot of stuff that we have in there is and was in anticipation of increased business, which we've seen in the fourth quarter, but also with a strong quarter in the fourth quarter, you'll know that accounts receivables tend to increase as of the 31st of December. The message is, the two drivers, inventory and accounts receivables, are still expected to be at a relatively high level.

We expect it now as the business increases and goes up again that at least inventory will go back to decent levels, accounts receivables it will remain what it is with a growing business.

Karsten von Blumenthal

That means we should rather look into, well, H1 figures to see you coming back to the levels you had say at the beginning of 2025?

Daniel Saxena

I think H1 is the right to look at. Remember, some of the components, especially platinum, has increased in pricing significantly, so that also has an impact on the working capital, i.e., the inventory.

Not saying that it's driving the inventory. We're managing inventory, but we still want to make sure that we have sufficient components on our stock.

The second driver as a general driver with increased inventory is, of course, as we open up new manufacturing sites, as we start ramping up certain sites, inventory will go up. Cuz at the beginning, and that's very similar to what we've seen in the last years with India and with the UK, you have a higher level of or double level of inventory in the German site as well as in the new manufacturing or assembly sites.

Karsten von Blumenthal

All right. Thanks for that update regarding working capital.

Perhaps one question to your, surprisingly for me, surprisingly high EBITDA guidance for 2026 and the margin. I assume better product mix and the one-off costs in 2025 will no longer burden you in 2026, say IT costs, ERP software, security, all this seems to be through.

You go back to a decent margin level in 2026, is that right?

Daniel Saxena

In part, it is right. If you look at the expenses in a bit of a differential way, when it comes to the gross margin range, you'll see a bit of a wider than normal range, with the gross margin development, which could reach from gross margin remaining stable to gross margin improvement.

I think what we're dealing with, and I mentioned that when I discussed the inventories, of course, you've seen that platinum prices have increased significantly in the last 6 months, so that has a result on our bill of material. We, of course, intend to pass on those costs also to customers.

Let's see how the platinum prices will develop, and let's see how we can pass them on to our customers. That will have an impact on the range of the gross margin.

You've seen the whole customs discussion having reopened just in the recent days, so that also remains a factor that could have an impact on the gross margin one or the other way. Still exchange rates tend to be volatile, also impact on the gross margin.

When it comes to the cost basis and then the margins, the EBITDA, the EBIT margin, gross margin has a direct impact, and the range of the gross margin is a little bit wider. When it comes to sales and marketing, I think we'll see a slight increase of those expenses, nothing significant, mostly driven by the regional expansion and tapping new markets.

Where we would expect lower expenses in 2026 is the R&D expenses. That is R&D expenses expensed over the P&L, the R&D spendings, which is the expenses plus what we capitalize, we expect it to increase slightly.

What we also expect this year again is that the capitalization rate, as we're investing in new products, will be higher than what we've seen in 2025, which will then lead to a lower portion of the R&D expenses hitting the P&L. G&A, we will still see high investments in the IT ERP.

I would not say that those costs will go significantly below what we've seen in 2025. They probably remain at a very similar level over the entire year.

What we do not expect, or it's very difficult to forecast, and I think this is one of the drivers in the margin is, remember we have losses from exchange rate conversion, reaching almost €4 million. Of course, in our forecast, we do not consider losses at this high level, which has a huge impact on the EBITDA.

Apparently, if the US dollar and the Canadian dollar and/or the Indian rupee start depreciating at the same speed or the same amount as we've seen in 2025, that would have a negative impact on our EBITDA and our EBIT. For the time being, also based on the access to research that we have, we don't see this amount, but again, that remains a risk.

Does it help?

Karsten von Blumenthal

Oh, [laughter] very much. Thank you very much, Daniel, that was very detailed.

Thank you for that. Thanks for answering my questions, Peter and Daniel.

Daniel Saxena

Thank you. Then

Operator

the next question comes from Usama Tariq from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Usama Tariq

Hi, good morning, team. Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on the great results.

I have a set of questions, two to be precise. Firstly, on the FX going forward, there was a lot of expectations for negative FX impact this year, and of course that has been realized.

Going into 2025, you already indicated that the higher adjusted EBIT guidance will somehow be affected from relatively better FX. Are you going to actively get involved in hedging FX in 2026?

My second question would be a little bit more general in nature. I see a lot of fuel cell peers in the last 6 months have had a really good run, Bloom Energy and Ceres.

They're primarily focusing the data center market. I understand that the power generation for the units for SFC is not as strong as required for data center, but is that also a market you're looking at or is that just totally not something that you target?

Thank you.

Daniel Saxena

Hi, Usama. Nice nice having you on the call.

When it comes to FX, what I mentioned just to Karsten is that of course we are more conservative with our FX assumptions for 2026, still based on what we see or what we saw as a consensus in the market from from various FX research houses. A little bit difficult to really say where we're going to end up within a year, but but we would expect a slight stabilization.

We do not see any gains from from FX development. When it comes to hedging, of course we're looking here and there into into some hedging on off FX, may enter into some hedgings.

I cannot exactly tell you yet, because hedging has become very expensive, and then if you look at it, it has two impacts, right? Of course the hedging will, if FX decreases or depreciates, improve your EBITDA, but it will decrease your cash flow, because hedging those positions have become very expensive, given the volatility of the exchange rate, and also the exchange rates that we are dealing with.

You will see on the one hand side, and and you know this much better than I do, a positive effect on the EBITDA and a negative effect on the cash flow. That's why if you look at the cash flow also in the 9-month cash flow, you don't see a huge impact from the FX expenses, because most of them are non-cash as long-term intercompany financing.

Let us let let let let me look at it on on really on on on a basis what the cost of hedging is and what the benefit and what it means means actually also in terms of what is the cash impact, and the cash impact would not be low. Remember also, we're looking at IFRS 18 being introduced and mandatory for 2027.

Though also they're going into details from from 2027 with IFRS 18, you'll see the presentation of FX results differently from what we see it right now, but I'll, comment on that maybe a little bit later. Then

Peter Podesser

I can back to the data center question. Usama, good morning.

Just recently [cough] we had, and I personally also was there with the team, a very interesting meeting with the largest data center provider in the UAE. When the CEO there showed me the 32 diesel gensets here in the backyard as the backup power, it was obvious they are looking for a more sustainable solution there, just replacing the conventional backup power.

We're looking at data center projects also in India, as India wants to become a hub here also on a global scale, is one of the initiatives. I would be really negatively surprised if we could not secure our first projects.

Although, recognizing that there are power levels for the, let's say, largest-sized data centers that are beyond also fuel cell capabilities even of other players, I think there is a good starting point here at mid-sized data centers, and we are working as we speak on it.

Usama Tariq

Very grateful. If I understand correctly, please correct me if I'm wrong, data center as a general opportunity is for you, and you are actively working in that, and we won't be surprised if you get some order in 2026 this year from the data center end market.

Peter Podesser

We're making all efforts and focusing naturally on the higher power range on our hydrogen-based product range here on this as one of the upcoming markets. I can confirm what you reiterated.

Usama Tariq

All right, very positive news. Thank you so very much.

I will fall back in the queue.

Peter Podesser

Thank you. Then

Operator

the next question comes from Robert-Jan van der Horst from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Robert-Jan van der Horst

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions.

The first one is, could you just give me maybe a quick update on or maybe just a little bit more color on what you expect from the Indian defense program? When I understood correctly, it was in part delayed and in part funds were repurposed for drones.

Do you expect it to come back significantly this year? Will it stretch out more or will the volume overall decline?

Just an idea where we are at now. The other question is regarding the one-off for the IT and ERP project.

Could you give me a rough estimate how high the effect was in 2025? That would be my two questions.

Thanks.

Peter Podesser

Good morning, Robert-Jan. This is Peter.

Talking about the Indian defense programs, as said, we just recently returned from India, having a yearly kickoff there and also the review of the forecast. [cough] We are expecting, I'd say, some of those programs now again resuming and restarting.

I think we also got a good data point in the discussion with also a major defense player there in India in the defense vehicle business. They had to suffer from the same facts that funds were repurposed, and it literally was said basically, well, for 9 months, we didn't get an order, and now it starts again.

I think we were not the only one suffering from it, which for us also was a validating point to, let's say, clearly state, yeah, the business is intact, the business case is intact, and the moment the programs resume, I think we will see a rebound here. Also, in conjunction with this, we did a very conservative planning, well, call it a sensible planning, in our Indian defense business, and I think we have all the reasons to believe that we will, I'd say, have a good chance to come in above the current planning.

Daniel Saxena

Hey, good morning, Robert. When it comes to ERP and IT and one-offs in 2025, I'd say that we're probably looking at anything between €2.6 million and €3 million in one-offs.

That does not reflect the entire investment that we have done in IT and ERP system. A certain portion of that will be recurring, especially stuff like licenses, especially stuff like maintenance, which will be higher going forward on a recurring level.

I think one-off really mostly in consulting, mostly in implementation of certain software components is, like I said, anything around €2.5 million to €3 million.

Robert-Jan van der Horst

Perfect. That was very helpful.

Thanks.

Peter Podesser

Thank you. Then

Operator

the next question comes from Michael Kuhn from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Michael Kuhn

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

I'll start with let's say the visibility. You mentioned good visibility especially into the first half.

Should we make out of that that, let's say, the guidance as we look at it today is front-end loaded? Also in that context, on backlog conversion, I think backlog around 80 at year-end, how quickly will that translate into sales?

Let's say, what major project you're working on where you would foresee entering it into the backlog over, let's say, the next 6 months with a realization of the project in the same year?

Peter Podesser

Good morning, Michael. Yeah.

I think if we look at the planning as we have it right now, I think we see it as, again repeating myself, as sensible and, I think, realistic, also taking a learning also of the experience of last year. Then if we look, yeah, into the order intake over the last couple of quarters, yeah, you see a consistent increase here over the last four quarters here, culminating in Q4 with over €40 million.

Still naturally, let's say, the backlog alone, I think, is not the decisive part here. As you rightly said, it's about the conversion.

We have also significant part of the business, especially on the clean energy fuel cell side, industrial fuel cell business, where usually have, let's say, an in-quarter conversion. Therefore, I think it's always the combination as you rightly concluded, it's the backlog part, it's also the project pipeline.

As mentioned before, we are seeing some significant decisions here being worked on to be expected and pending really for the foreseeable future, talking about, in some cases, weeks, in some cases, maybe, let's say, something in the next quarter. On the defense side, it's about, let's say, OEM decisions, but also regional programs.

The rebound also, we discussed it, in the Indian programs. There, fiscal year starts on 1st of April, so that's something expected, let's say, for the second half of the year and the summer.

Then also on the civilian part of the business, and as said, it's a combination. It's, again, a solid and robust growth in the civilian part of the business, but it's, let's say, a more dynamic view and a more dynamic situation in Defense and Public Security.

If you give us a couple of weeks and we together watch out for what we can, let's say, execute here, I think we get, let's say, even more visibility beyond, let's say, the first half of the year.

Michael Kuhn

Thank you. Then on the US, with the production about to ramp and first products to be delivered soon, will that, do you think, influence the behavior of your US customers by, let's say, removing tariff uncertainties and delivering a US-built product?

Should we expect a, let's say, more dynamic buying behavior in the US?

Peter Podesser

I think definitely it has an impact, because it's one of the concerns voiced to us by customers. At the end, having a key component coming, let's say, from Europe, be it from Germany or Romania, as we have it right now, is seen widely as a risk per se in the supply chain.

We are removing this, and naturally they can also, let's say, reuse, let's say, their cycle times, be it an advantage for us or not, but at the end, for the customer, it's a good thing. We are able to, let's say, satisfy their demands also on shorter notice without, let's say, longer planning, including logistics times.

Overall, definitely. Does it eliminate all impact of uncertainty?

Looking at the last couple of days, I do not think we can take this general conclusion here. Long term, it's the right path.

They want us to be there, they want it made in the US, and I think that's what we have to deliver apart from, let's say, the uncertainties out of the trade policy of this administration.

Michael Kuhn

No, fair point. One more on business mix.

You mentioned 15% to 20% defense, and then did I get that rightly, another 60% on top from security/surveillance? No.

Peter Podesser

This is, let's say, additive. The 60%

Michael Kuhn

is

Peter Podesser

including also the military part of the business.

Michael Kuhn

Understood. Then last question.

On this product you mentioned being deployed in Canada with the very long working times and temperature resistance, is that also something thinkable for, let's say, Eastern European or Scandinavian border protection, where there's a lot of talk going on obviously? Could that be a, let's say, significant use case going forward?

Peter Podesser

That is definitely our expectation here. As said, we have a clear path of scaling here with our existing customer, and that's, let's say, at the end of the day, a NATO force.

We have naturally made use also of the presence of many of our customers and decision-makers here during the Munich Security Conference to get this out and show it as a solution here for all the other NATO and non-NATO forces. What is the application?

It is uninterrupted, dependable power here [cough] with low to no temperature and noise signature. At the end, it's for sensing, surveillance, and data transmission, and operating periods between 12 and 36 months in really remote locations.

Right now, yeah, along, let's say, a new marine, I'd say, logistics corridor in the northern part here of the Arctic, based out of Canada, but naturally there are, let's say, all other locations also suitable, in Scandinavia and, I'd say, Northern European and Northeastern European locations, too. Scaling this here with the existing program, but deployment in other regions is exactly the plan.

Michael Kuhn

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Peter Podesser

Thank you. Then

Operator

the next question comes from Malte Schaumann from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.

Malte Schaumann

Yes. Good morning.

First question is follow-up on the defense part. Could you remind me what the defense revenue share was in 2025?

Peter Podesser

Good morning, Malte. Around [cough] 10% due to the drop also in India, and expectations this year is that's a healthy chance to at least double this, yeah?

The conservative part is at the 15%.

Malte Schaumann

Okay. What do you expect to be the main drivers besides the recovery expected to happen in India?

There is some more color on what are the major building blocks for the increase?

Peter Podesser

Yeah. Absolutely.

We are expecting some, let's say, OEM decisions, but we are also expecting some, let's say, decisions out of regions where we have had, let's say, a lot of business development and a lot of project-based business. New projects are up for decision, it's OEM and regional expansion.

We have developed those two new products there. We talked about Canada a minute ago, but also on our power supply offering, we have this product out there in a fast-scaling laser platform, portable, land-based, vehicle-based, main application drone defense, and it is, let's say, the scaling with this OEM.

By the way, we have approximately, let's say, 400 of those units already out there in the field. Naturally also other OEM users here in terms of laser technology on the defense side.

It's a combination. It's not the one big project that makes it all.

We also think this is, let's say, taking risk out. As said, in India, I think as of April, we expect, let's say, to come back to, let's say, a growth curve.

Malte Schaumann

Okay. Good.

Defense alone, the growth you expect in defense alone is broadly covering the full revenue range you expect for 2026, which would then imply you expect basically no growth in all the other areas. Maybe you can add some more.

Yeah. What do you think about that thought?

Don't you see any opportunities in security applications, industrial applications, etc.? A strong growth in defense, then the guidance does not look very ambitious regarding all the other businesses.

Peter Podesser

I think naturally there's also an element of learning India out of last year's experience, where at the end, let's say, an add-up of multifactor's led us to miss the original and, I would say, justified, ambitious plan. I think we have, let's say, taken as a reaction to this, a more conservative, but still, let's say, ambitious growth plan, not neglecting that still, let's say, risks are out there.

We know how fast delays in defense projects occur, and half a year, let's say, goes by without a decision is not something unheard of. At the end, I think the truth is somewhere in between.

We see still, let's say, the organic growth in the industrial business, fuel cells, and power supplies intact. We had an impact in Canada on the power business last year with a single project being, let's say, not decided, but overall, also there, we saw, let's say, a very stable environment with, let's say, which is also the underlying assumption here.

If everything adds up in a positive way, we will be all happy to look at this and think about, let's say, the guidance again.

Malte Schaumann

Yeah. Good.

Then on the gross margin again, you mentioned several factors, Daniel, but if I got you right, in the end, you expect flat to potentially slightly increasing gross margins. Is that right?

Daniel Saxena

Comparing to 2025, which is, as I've mentioned, not all the gross margin, but it's not bad, I would expect a flattish gross margin on the lower end, but I would still look on the upper end a gross margin which increases. As always, remember the rough guidance that we're giving is gross margin can go up on an annual basis anything between 1 and 1.5 percentage points, we would not see any jumps on the upper side which is beyond that.

Malte Schaumann

Yeah. Many thanks.

Peter Podesser

Thank you very much. Then

Operator

we have one follow-up question from Usama Tariq from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Usama Tariq

Hi, team. Thank you for the opportunity.

Just one follow-up question for 2026. [cough] How do you see the balance sheet going into 2026?

Do you still expect it to be net cash? Do you think you will take some debt financing?

Any pointers there would be really nice. Thank you.

Daniel Saxena

When it comes to the balance sheet, yes, I would see still net cash. I would still to see us to be cash generating.

There's no need for super complicated math. You look at the 9-month, if you see the results of the fourth quarter, and from a purely operating cash flow, we are positive, operating cash flow 1.

The key liquidity driver or consumption is really working capital. That's where the cash is getting consumed.

If we look at CapEx, we do not expect any huge CapEx programs in 2026, similar as we've seen it in 2025. To get to the point is, yes, still net cash positive.

When it comes to leverage and financing, let us see. We do have certain credit lines in place, let's see how we can only draw them down, but given the current liquidity that we have, [cough] we may not use them excessively.

Then, of course, we are still looking, and that is not a surprise, at potential acquisition and/or investments into strategic partners. As always, those processes are something where you can say could happen, could not happen, there's a lot of variables out there.

Of course, we're confident, we would not go into the exercise [laughter] if we didn't believe that there would be a positive result or outcome of such a transaction. Depending on where and how we do a transaction, we could look into leveraging the purchase price of such a transaction.

Usama Tariq

If I may just add on the acquisition part, what geography would you be targeting? Would you still be looking towards an aggregator or something on the technology side?

Is there something in the pipeline or do you really are just looking currently? Any pointers there would be great.

Thank you.

Daniel Saxena

It hasn't really changed the strategic focus of what we have done in the past and what we've been looking for is, first of all, yes, it's regional expansion, getting deeper into certain regional markets. Of course, North America remains on our radar screen.

Let's see how the overall [laughter] environment develops. Of course, Southeast Asia remains on our radar screen, the same thing here, regional penetration, getting quicker into the market and/or into certain sectors.

We're also looking or maybe looking at some opportunities in Europe. Then, from a technology point of view, also, yes, we're looking at potential higher power opportunities on the technology side where the technology complements our DMFC and PEM portfolio.

There are assets out there which we would consider to be attractive. Yes, we're looking, but we're looking purposefully, [laughter] and when we're looking, we're also engaging into discussions, it being understood.

That we invest prudently, and looking at opportunities very cautiously. Yes, the opportunities are out there, and you see that if you look at our transaction expenses, [laughter] the level of the transaction expenses is a good indicator of the level of engagement.

Usama Tariq

All right. Thank you, very clear.

Thank you. That would be all from my side.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Dr.

Peter Podesser for any closing remarks.

Peter Podesser

Yeah. Again, thanks, everybody, for your time, your interest.

As always, I'd say, Susan, Daniel, myself, we are available for any direct interaction and follow-up. You see us here, I'd say, confident for 2026, optimistic based on facts, but at the same time, I think you also see us inspired and motivated by the dynamic environment we are experiencing here in the first part of this year.

We will be happy to report on further milestones as soon as we have them. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference.

You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.