Haleon PLC

Haleon PLC

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Mar 04Next Earn

Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptApril 29, 2026

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to today's Haleon's first quarter trading update.

My name is Sarah, and I'll be your moderator today. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for question and answers at the end.

If you would like to ask a question, press star-one on your telephone keypad. I'd like to pass the conference over to our host, Joanne Russell, Head of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Joanne Russell

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Haleon's conference call for our first quarter trading statement.

I am Joanne Russell, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Brian McNamara, our Chief Executive Officer, and Dawn Allen, our Chief Financial Officer. Just to remind listeners on the call that in the discussion today, the company may make certain forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans, and expectations.

Please refer to this morning's announcement and the company's UK and SEC filings for more details, including factors that could lead actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by any such forward-looking statements. Today we'll focus on organic revenue performance.

There's a full reconciliation of organic revenue in the appendix of the company's slide presentation. Following Brian and Dawn's remarks, we will take your questions.

For those listening to our webcast who would like to ask a question, you can find the details on page 3 of today's press release. With that, I'll hand over to Brian.

Brian McNamara

Thanks, Joe, and welcome to our Q1 2026 results call. We've navigated a challenging market in the first quarter, where consumer confidence continued to weaken, and delivered 2.2% organic revenue growth.

The continued weakness in cold and flu that we highlighted at full year impacted group organic growth by 130 basis points. Once again, oral health performed strongly, with innovation-led premiumization and geographic expansion driving continued success in Sensodyne and parodontax.

In VMS, Centrum saw an improved performance, underpinned by innovation. We continue to make progress against our strategic priorities.

Our productivity initiatives continue to drive strong gross margin improvement. Consistent with our strategy to build more competitive, consumer-focused supply chains, in March we announced £65 million investment in a new oral health facility in Shanghai that's due to open in early 2028.

On culture, we are moving forward on the operating model changes we set out in January, which are designed to drive growth and agility. Coming back to growth.

Dawn will take you through the numbers, but first I'd like to look at North America, which is a good example of how our growth initiatives are progressing well. Over the past quarters, we've been very deliberate in strengthening both our marketing effectiveness and our in-market execution.

While we have reorganized the team to follow our category-led approach, we have also created a cross-category platform team to capture opportunities that sit across the portfolio. A good example of this is GLP-1.

We are taking a holistic view of consumer needs. This is not a single category opportunity.

It spans VMS, digestive health, pain relief, and oral health, and we are aligning our brands to play across that full consumer journey. In parallel, we are accelerating innovation and sharpening how we segment our brands to address consumer needs.

The recent launch of Centrum Age Defy is a good example, allowing us to reach a younger consumer with a more tailored proposition, alongside innovations such as Excedrin Rapid Relief, bringing faster-acting solutions to the market in a category where speed of relief matters. Taken together, these actions are starting to translate into performance.

In Q1, North America returned to growth, up 1% overall. Next, let's look at our emerging markets, where we delivered organic revenue growth of 4.3%.

That was largely due to weak cold and flu season in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific. Latin America, and particularly Brazil, also continued to be impacted by challenging consumer backdrop and performance challenges with higher promotional activity.

We've put in place a number of programs to support growth in Latin America, which we expect to positively impact performance from Q2 onwards. Examples include the launch of accessibility offerings across Sensodyne and denture care, along with activations we are planning around the FIFA World Cup for Eno.

Despite the near-term headwinds, we remain confident in our emerging markets. We have strong brands.

Our innovation pipeline, along with the actions we're taking to strengthen distribution, will allow us to reach more consumers. Turning now to the outlook.

As we talked in February, outside of respiratory, we are not assuming a material improvement in global category growth. Despite the macroeconomic and consumer backdrop becoming more uncertain in recent weeks, we are maintaining our outlook for the year, but much will depend on the duration of the current conflict and any potential impact on the wider economies of our key markets.

We expect organic revenue growth to be between 3% and 5% for the full year. We will deliver improving growth momentum through the improved performance in North America that I've talked about, increased investment in our e-com channel in China, particularly Douyin, and an improvement in Latin America from some of the actions I outlined earlier.

On profitability, our plans are on track, and we remain confident in strong gross margin expansion. That improvement will support, by ongoing productivity initiatives, delivering high single-digit operating growth while allowing for continued healthy investment in the business.

I'll now hand over to Dawn to take you through the numbers in more detail.

Dawn Allen

Thank you, Brian. Good morning, everyone.

As expected, it has been a challenging start to the year. Category softness has continued, where consumer confidence remains under pressure, with our results also impacted by weak cold and flu season.

From a consumer perspective, penetration levels across our categories continue to be resilient, but consumers are becoming more value-orientated and seeking more convenience. Against this backdrop, we delivered 2.2% organic revenue growth in the quarter, 2.4% from price and a decline of 0.2% in volume mix.

Looking at the results in more detail, starting with our global categories. Oral health continued its strong momentum, delivering 8.3% growth, two times ahead of the market.

Key highlights were: In the US, growth was driven by the innovation rollout of Sensodyne Clinical Repair, along with parodontax Gum Strength and Protect. This resulted in double-digit consumption growth, with Haleon growing four times the market.

In India, our 20-rupee Sensodyne pack performed well, with 70% of units being purchased by new consumers to the brand. Overall, our growth was balanced across price and volume mix.

For VMS, we saw an improving trend, at 1.7% organic revenue growth. This was largely driven by Centrum, and in particular, North America grew mid-single digit.

This was due to the launch of Centrum Nutrient Replenish, targeting GLP-1 users, alongside continued strength in Centrum Silver, helped by the activation of biological aging claims. In Asia-Pacific, the upgraded daily kits in China also performed well.

On Caltrate, whilst consumption remained healthy, organic revenue growth was impacted by a tough comparative in the prior year. In OTC, we saw a mixed performance, with strength on brands such as Panadol, Benefiber, and Tums, offset by weak cold and flu season, as well as declines across smokers' health and Nexium.

Within the pain category, revenue was broadly flat. Key highlights were: Panadol maintaining strong momentum, driven by a new campaign, That's One for Panadol, and an improving trend in Voltaren, driven by the rollout of our 2% formulation in India and Saudi Arabia, following the success in China, and continued share gains in Advil in the US, driven by the No Pain More Gain activation against a weak category.

Within respiratory, organic revenue declined 3.4%. Around 60% of our portfolio is positioned against the cold and flu category, which was down in Central and Eastern Europe and showed double-digit decline in North America and APAC.

In addition, smokers' health continued to be a drag, declining double digit in the quarter. These factors more than offset strong performances from improved in-store execution and expert endorsement in Flonase, as well as continued strong performance and expansion on Otrivin nasal mist.

For digestive health, strong innovation and activations on Benefiber and Tums was offset by weakness in Nexium and Eno to deliver 0.4% organic revenue decline. Finally, therapeutic skin health and other grew 3%, with continued strength in Bactroban, partly offset by a decline in Fenistil.

Turning now to the regions. As Brian mentioned, North America returned to growth, up 1%, 3.7% from price and 2.7% decline in volume mix.

In the quarter, we saw double-digit growth in oral health, alongside an improved performance on Centrum and continued strong performance across Tums, Benefiber, and Flonase, offset by double-digit decline in cold and flu. Moving forward, we are confident that growth in North America will accelerate as we move through the year.

This will be underpinned by shelf resets, strong activations, including the partnership with US Soccer for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as well as further innovation. In EMEA and LatAm, we delivered 2.1% organic revenue growth, with 2.6% from price and 0.5% decline in volume mix.

We saw a very different picture across the three operating units. In Europe, we continue to see resilient performance, with modest revenue growth, underpinned by outperformance in pharmacy and mass market channels.

This is against a backdrop of weaker consumption and lower consumer confidence. Strength in oral health, along with good growth in Panadol and an improving trend in Voltaren, was partly offset by weak cold and flu season in Central and Eastern Europe.

In Middle East and Africa, we delivered high single-digit revenue growth, with a good balance across price and volume mix, driven by innovation launches, including Panadol Dual Action and Voltaren 2%. Whilst performance in the quarter was not impacted by the Middle East conflict, we are monitoring the situation closely.

In Latin America, revenue was slightly up. The macro picture has been more challenging, and we have seen performance issues in Brazil.

In Asia-Pacific, we delivered 4% growth, with a higher-than-expected significant impact from the weak cold and flu season. In China, we continue to outperform and grew mid-single digit, with double-digit growth in the e-commerce channel, which now makes up around 40% of our revenues.

Our innovation agenda also continued to deliver, with our upgraded Centrum daily kits with benefits for metabolism, liver, and cardio performing well. We expect growth in China to accelerate as we build out further capabilities in Douyin through tripling the number of content pieces on the platform and doubling the number of key opinion leaders across VMS.

In India, we grew double digit, with excellent in-market execution, particularly for Sensodyne Pronamel. As a result, Sensodyne grew up five times the rate of the category, with significant market share gains.

In fact, Sensodyne has now reached double-digit market share in India. Turning now to the remainder of the year.

Our guidance remains unchanged at 3% to 5% organic revenue growth and high single-digit operating profit. We are watching carefully the potential impact from the conflict in the Middle East, and whilst we didn't see any significant impact in the quarter, we are mindful of potential changes in future consumer spending patterns and are monitoring costs in our supply chain closely.

In summary for quarter one: Oral health continued to outperform. North America returned to growth.

We saw continued resilience of our portfolio against a backdrop of softer consumer markets. Our productivity agenda continues to make excellent progress.

This provides us with the flexibility and agility to continue to invest and navigate the macro uncertainty. With that, I'll hand back to the operator for the Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, followed by one on your telephone keypad.

To remove your question, press star, followed by two. Again, to ask a question, press star-one.

As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking a question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered.

Our first question is from Guillaume Delmas with UBS. Please go ahead.

Guillaume Delmas

Thank you very much, and good morning Brian, Dawn, and Joe. Two questions for me, please.

First one, Brian, on your 2026 guidance, because you had a relatively soft start to the year, I think largely expected, maybe LatAm, China a little bit weaker than you anticipated. More importantly, there is now far more macro uncertainty versus a couple of months ago.

My question here is, reiterated the 2026 outlook, but have some of the key moving parts changed? Do you see now clear additional sources of downside or maybe, conversely, upside, particularly when it comes to savings?

Any color on how you look at the guidance now versus at the time of the full year results? What maybe you're baking in at this stage for the Middle East, and I guess what underpins your confidence in meeting your guidance?

Then my second question is on North America. It does seem category growth, even when we adjust for the weak cold and flu, not only is not improving, it seems category growth is getting worse, particularly in OTC in the region.

Can you maybe talk about the reasons for this kind of unusually negative category growth? Do you see any structural reasons for that, or is it just a bit cyclical and you would expect a pickup?

Very lastly, in the meantime, how do you ensure you keep outperforming category growth and that the gap between you and category growth keeps on widening? Thank you very much.

Brian McNamara

Thanks, Guillaume. Let me start with full year guidance.

Taking a step back, as you said, Q1 slightly lower than expected, but not material, honestly, broadly in line, little more downside in cold and flu in Asia-Pac, specifically China. From that perspective, nothing's changed since we guided.

As you mentioned, what has changed is the uncertain macro environment given the war. Hard to predict what's going to happen, and we're monitoring it closely, but to be clear, there was no impact in Q1.

Dawn mentioned that. Middle East, by the way, just for perspective, is about 5% of our overall business.

We do remain confident in the 3% to 5% guidance and in accelerating growth through the balance of the year. That confidence comes from, first, North America benefiting from the shelf resets, which are happening at our largest customers.

They're happening as we speak, they're going into place now and into early May, our partnership with US Soccer and the activation that's going to happen across category initiatives on things like GLP-1, and frankly just overall improved execution behind a very strong and new team in North America. Secondly, we mentioned Latin America and Brazil.

We did see a tough macroeconomic environment in Brazil, and our results were much softer there than they were in Q4. Now we've made a leadership change in Brazil.

We've also made a structure change where that now sits on my executive team reporting directly to me. I was actually in Brazil 3 weeks ago with Andres, our new leader there.

He's got fantastic, by the way, Latin American consumer experience. I'm really confident in the plans we've already put in place, the actions we've taken to see improvement in Q2 and an acceleration in the back half.

Then obviously we're lapping softer comps in the back half in respiratory, and after 2 years of decline, we'd expect to see some growth off of that lower base. You mentioned it, Guillaume, I think on the profit side, productivity continues to progress ahead of our expectations, honestly, the strength of the gross margin improvement gives us the flexibility we need to invest in growth, which underpins the confidence of being able to deliver the guidance on the top line despite a very difficult macro environment, but also the confidence in delivering the high single-digit operating profit growth with those uncertainties.

I mentioned a little bit. Your second question was really on North America.

Again, I was in North America a couple weeks ago also. Really, really happy with the progress we've made there.

The changes in distribution and shelving across oral health and pain relief and VMS are going to have a real impact on the business, I'm confident we can continue to outperform and perform in the market. Cold and flu was down pretty significantly in Q1 in North America, and it has a little bit of a halo effect on some other categories, pain relief and immunity and VMS and things like that.

Overall, again, I don't think that's a structural thing. I think it's a cyclical thing and that we would expect that to kind of bounce back.

Where I am very confident is obviously in our ability to outperform and outperform more in the US as we look at the balance of the year.

Guillaume Delmas

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Warren Ackerman from Barclays.

Warren Ackerman

Morning, Brian, Dawn, Joe. It's Warren here at Barclays.

Two for me as well. Can you maybe sort of drill in a little bit more on what you're seeing in Asia?

You mentioned China, you expect acceleration with the Douyin rollout, but I guess cough, cold, flu was quite weak in China. Maybe if you can maybe outline what the underlying picture is in China and then what you kind of see on the go-forward, similar thing on India, and then Southeast Asia, are you seeing any kind of sort of weakness in some of the smaller Southeast Asian markets given the Middle East conflict?

Just any color on what you're seeing in those three big buckets of Asia. Then secondly, just back on cough, cold, flu.

I don't know whether Dawn, you're able to just break it out for us in terms of what the impact was specifically in the US, in EMEA, LatAm, and in Asia-Pac, just so that we can sort of see what the underlying numbers are. Thank you.

Brian McNamara

Great. Thanks, Warren.

Let me take the first one and then I'll pass it to Dawn on cold and flu and impact in the US. In China, mid-single digit growth in China.

We have a brand in China called Contac, which is quite a big cold and flu brand, and we did not see a season at all, so that was a drag. We have a good business on Douyin in China, but we see a bigger opportunity there, and that business for us, by the way, grew 100% in Q1, but remember we have over a billion-pound business in China.

The other thing about Douyin is it isn't a channel where you can do OTC products based on regulatory, it's really focused on our non-OTC portfolio. We're quite confident in the acceleration that we're seeing and the capabilities we're building there, we feel good about China.

India continues to be our star in seeing double-digit growth, and, frankly, oral health in China is doing incredibly well. The low-income consumer strategy we have there, the launch of Pronamel is driving very, very strong double-digit consumption growth.

Then on Southeast Asian markets, we're monitoring it closely. We haven't seen a big impact to date.

It hasn't impacted Q1, but we're monitoring it closely because obviously we're seeing others in other categories seeing an impact in Southeast Asia. Overall, it seems to be fairly stable and continuing as is.

Dawn, do you want to talk

Dawn Allen

cold

Brian McNamara

and flu?

Dawn Allen

Thanks, Warren. Look, in terms of cough, cold, and flu, 130 basis points in the quarter.

The way I'd think about that, if you think about the majority of that is volume. If I compare it to Q4, where we had 150 basis points impact, kind of broadly similar overall, but actually the split across the three regions is quite different.

A much bigger impact in terms of North America and Asia-Pac, both of those down double digit. As I said, the way to think about that is from a volume perspective.

North America, if you think about volume down overall 2.7%, actually most of that cough, cold, and flu. I think the same in Asia-Pac.

The reason why Asia-Pac is at 4%, as I said, big drag from cough, cold, and flu. I think in EMEA LatAm, whilst we saw an impact in Central Europe, we didn't see really a large impact from cough, cold, and flu in LatAm.

The other two things to talk about, if you look at overall respiratory, remember in respiratory we have three parts. We have cough, cold, and flu, we have allergy in terms of Otrivin and Flonase, which were both very strong in the quarter, and we also obviously in the US have smokers' health.

I think when you think about respiratory, you need to break it down into the three parts. The last thing I would say, look, over the last 2 years, we've seen two weak seasons on cough, cold, and flu, particularly overall in North America.

If I think cough, cold, and flu volumes are down over that time mid- to high single digit, it's not unheard of to have two weak seasons, but it is quite rare. Everything else being equal, if we look forward, we are expecting to see improvement in cough, cold, and flu in terms of volume growth, particularly in the back half of the year.

Warren Ackerman

Super. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Olivier Nicolai from Goldman Sachs.

You may ask your question.

Olivier Nicolai

Hi, good morning, Brian, Dawn, and Joe. Two questions, please.

Q1 you saw double-digit decline in smokers' health, Nexium also continued to decline. What is the strategy to get these brands back to growth, and would you also consider some portfolio adjustments, which would probably help you to reach your 4% to 6% medium-term targets more easily without those drags?

Then secondly, just more of a follow-up on previous comment from you, Brian, but if you look at Q1 growth, it was 3.5% once you adjust for the cold and flu impact of 130 bps. Do you expect an acceleration from that level, and could you remind us where this acceleration will come from in terms of regions and categories in the coming quarters?

Thank you.

Brian McNamara

Great. Let me take the first question, Olivier, and then I'll pass it to Dawn for the second question.

Listen, no question, smoking category has been a challenge. As we said, it was down double digits in Q1.

Overall the category is down mid- to high single digits, actually there's a category issue there, but there's also, as I've said in the past, there's a share challenge with private label. Remember these products are in the $30 to $40 range, and with the US consumer being under pressure.

That said, we are very focused on stabilizing this business, and we're taking actions, increasing promotions to close price gaps to private label, incremental A&P investment. We're putting all those things in place.

There are some green shoots. To be clear, we're seeing very good growth in Walmart and Amazon on the gum variant.

We're doubling down in those areas to make sure that we can drive more success where we're having success. Obviously it's a priority for us to stabilize as we move forward, and we have plans in place to do that.

Your question on portfolio adjustment, of course, if there's an opportunity for us to strengthen the portfolio by bringing in higher growth assets and potentially divesting assets which aren't as core or strategic, we're absolutely open to that, and we're actively looking at opportunities there. Why don't I pass it over to Dawn?

Dawn Allen

Yeah. Thanks for the question.

When I think about the building blocks for the year, I would expect sequential improvement in growth as we move through the year. You will have seen we've held our guidance full year between 3% and 5% organic revenue growth.

The way I see the moving parts, obviously Brian's talked about North America, it's great that North America is back in growth, 1% growth. We feel really confident in terms of continued improvement in that growth rate, whether it's from shelf resets, strong activation, and the rollout of innovation, and we have put more investment in North America as well.

If I look at Asia-Pac, Brian also talked about China in particular. India continued double-digit growth, I talked on the call about the strength in oral health and excellent execution, we expect that to continue, and mid-single digit growth on China.

Again, we're also increasing investment, a very strong performance on e-commerce, and further investment going in Douyin. Also even if I look at markets like Australia, very strong activation in terms of our Panadol campaign, That's One for Panadol.

I think Asia-Pac, obviously Q1 impacted by cough, cold, and flu, but I think the underlying performance and the key drivers remain intact in terms of strong performance moving forward. If I look at Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, let me break it down into the three parts.

Because Europe, actually it's a challenging backdrop in terms of category and consumer, but within that, our performance remains resilient, actually, particularly given our strength in pharmacy channel, and I would expect that to continue. If I look at LatAm, a softer macro backdrop, stronger promotions in Q1, and so I would expect that to improve as we move through the year.

Brian talked about Andre, new leadership in there. We feel good about that improvement.

In terms of Middle East and Africa, actually, a big shout-out to our commercial and supply teams that we did not see an impact in Q1, and actually Q1 at high single-digit growth in Middle East, Africa is very strong. I would say in Q2, we have started to see an impact, particularly in terms of consumption, and we are watching that closely.

Middle East probably is the area that remains uncertain. I think the other thing to talk about in that, whilst we haven't seen an impact in Southeast Asia, obviously it is an area that we are also monitoring closely, particularly given higher fuel prices, work from home, etc.

As I said, holding guidance 3% to 5% growth, organic revenue growth for the year, and sequential improvement in growth as we move through the year, based on the different moving parts that I've talked about.

Olivier Nicolai

Thank you very much. Very clear.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Sarah Simon with Morgan Stanley.

Please go ahead.

Sarah Simon

Yes, thanks. Most of my questions have been answered, but just one.

Can you give us the weighting of cold and flu revenue through the quarters? That would be helpful.

Thank you.

Brian McNamara

I could take that very quickly. It's roughly a third in Q1, about 15% in Q2, and then about split almost evenly Q3, Q4, about 30% each.

Rough numbers.

Sarah Simon

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Celine Pannuti with J.P.

Morgan. Please go ahead.

Celine Pannuti

Thank you very much, and good morning. My question on North America.

Clearly, a pleasing start, 1% growth. Pricing was very strong.

Is that kind of level to be sustained, or was there maybe less promo because of the weak cold and flu, and what kind of pricing are we expecting for the year? Q2 is your easiest comparative in North America.

Are we expecting a strong bounce-back given what you said on the shelf reset? Are you still comfortable with the 2% for North America for the year, or you think maybe it could be higher?

I don't know, pricing to me seems to be quite a tailwind then. If you could comment on that.

Then my second one is on Europe, which clearly seems to have a bit more challenges in terms of the different moving parts that you mentioned, including the Middle East. You flagged that for Q2.

Does that, obviously, we can't predict what could happen maybe on the second half, but how comfortable are you that Europe is picking up in the second half of the year? I presume maybe just to finalize on the point you mentioned on Outlook, you said sequential acceleration.

Are we expecting Q2 to be within the 3 to 5? Thank you.

Brian McNamara

Thank you, Celine. Listen, I'll take the second one on Europe, and I think you're probably talking Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America in that context as it sounded like.

Then I'll pass it to Dawn for the North America question and maybe the phasing guidance question. Listen, overall, in Middle East, listen, it's 5% of our business.

It's not a massive piece of our business, it's 5%. We are seeing consumption softness in a few countries there, no question.

We don't know how long the conflict is going to last or what the ultimate impact is going to be on that side of it. As we said earlier is we're looking at all the input costs and the potential impact of a longer conflict there from a oil price perspective.

Obviously, we feel very good about the productivity programs we have in place, and again, they're exceeding our expectations, and gross margin continues to show really strong progress, we feel like we have a lot of flexibility to deal with that, and frankly, we're better positioned than most just because we have high gross margins and lower exposure to those input costs. I think that's the Middle East piece.

On Europe, I think Dawn mentioned it early, too, which is, we're a pharmacy-driven market there, we're seeing probably less of the impact that maybe others have seen in a more mass market-driven. Now, our toothpaste business is primarily mass market, but I have to say it continues to perform extremely well in Europe behind all the innovation and everything we've been driving there.

Dawn, do you want to address the North America one?

Dawn Allen

I think in North America, look, as we move through the year, we'd expect to see a more balanced price/volume mix split. I think in Q1 I talked about the drag on volume from cough, cold, and flu, and obviously that will come out as we move through the year.

I think from a pricing perspective, the price at 3.7%, that includes some carryover, particularly in Canada, and I wouldn't expect that level of pricing moving forward to the future quarters. As I said, I think for North America, a more balanced price/volume mix.

We've always talked in North America about the two main factors. One is our speed of improvement in terms of execution, and the other one is in terms of the category.

I think from an execution point of view and what we're seeing in the first quarter, actually we're seeing real positive momentum, and we're really pleased, actually, with the progress in North America. Obviously, what's also come up on the call is the category.

The category remains still challenging, but actually our outperformance versus the category is improving in North America. When I look at the kind of phasing in terms of quarters, obviously we're not going to guide to specific quarters, but as I said, we expect sequential improvement in growth as we move through the year.

Celine Pannuti

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Nicholas Turon with Bank of America.

Please go ahead.

Nicholas Turon

Hi, Brian. Hi, Dawn.

Just, Dawn, coming back on your comment on the cold and flu season. If we have a normal cold and flu season this year, what kind of growth rate you would expect in H2?

Is that some sort of mid-single digit or double digit? The second question on LatAm, if I may.

You expect an acceleration in Q2. Do you think you'll have some sell-in benefit in that, or is that all consumer-driven?

Thank you.

Dawn Allen

I think, look, on cough, cold, and flu, I've already talked about this, if you look over the last 2 years where we've had two weak seasons, cough, cold, and flu volumes have been down mid- to high single digit, and therefore we would expect to see volume growth in the back half of the year. I think in terms of LatAm, it is a challenging macro environment, but we feel really good about the activations that we've got in place both in terms of oral health and in terms of Eno, we are expecting improvement in the LatAm performance as we move through the year.

Nicholas Turon

No sell-in benefit in LatAm, all consumer-driven?

Dawn Allen

All consumer-driven.

Nicholas Turon

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from David Hayes with Jefferies.

Please go ahead.

David Hayes

Thank you. Good morning, all.

I'm going to be cheeky and do a follow-on, then two questions, if I can. Just on the follow-up, on the Middle East, you talked about some indications in the last few weeks of impact, but some companies have called out as sort of 50% down in March.

We're just trying to get a sense of is it that kind of quantum that is the risk, or is it much less pronounced than that in terms of what you've seen at the moment? Then my two questions are just on the sort of price-led growth versus the volume performance still coming through.

Is there a need, you think, to review the price points across all markets, particularly maybe LatAm, to your points earlier on the competitiveness, and to apply some more competitiveness in pricing into the second half, maybe take sand down and reinvest even more of the ongoing cost savings that you're achieving? Then the second one on input cost outlook for the second half, some of your peers have sort of said if oil, etc., stay as they are, they kind of give you a bit of indication of additional headwind.

Is there anything you can give us on that in terms of the dynamics for the second half on costs? Thanks.

Brian McNamara

Thanks, David. Let me address a couple of things and pass it to Dawn, and you can talk the input costs and the headwinds and stuff.

Middle East, Africa, we are seeing consumption down double digit, but below teens. To give you a range, we're not seeing 50% for sure, but we're seeing softness in the business, and that's why we wanted to call that out.

Listen, on pricing and price gaps, we are focused on driving growth. If opportunities exist for us to tweak pricing, to tweak price gaps, we're going to do that, and we're going to make that happen, and just a bit of a case study, I was in Brazil a few weeks back, and we have adjusted some of our price gaps for some key competitors in markets where maybe they got a little out of whack, and we saw almost an instantaneous kind of volume growth.

We're on top of that. I don't see major pricing reset or anything like that, but where there's opportunities to tweak and make sure we're doing it, and because the gross margin savings improvement is so strong, we have the flexibility to do what we need to do to get the business where we want it from a growth perspective.

Dawn, you want to talk

Dawn Allen

about input costs? I think, look, in terms of input costs, we are really well placed because we've got a strong supply chain productivity program that is progressing really well.

In terms of our exposure, if you think about our cost base that's exposed to crude, it's about 3% of our revenue. If I look across total commodities, including gums, vitamins, that's around 10%.

We have fixed-price contracts and hedging in most areas until the end of the year. What we have seen in the first quarter, we've started to see the impact, we've started to see surcharges on freight, quite small, but I would expect that to increase in the second quarter and also in the second half of the year.

As I said, I think we're really well placed in terms of the strength of our productivity program, and that's why we maintain our guidance full year for high single-digit operating profit growth.

David Hayes

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no questions waiting at this time, I'll turn the conference back over to Brian McNamara for any further remarks.

Brian McNamara

Thanks, everyone. I appreciate you all joining us today.

Look forward to catching up with all of you in upcoming meetings and road shows, and please feel free, as you always do, to reach out to the IR team if you have any further questions. Thanks for the continued interest and support in Haleon.

Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes Haleon's first quarter trading update.

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.