Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Canadian Solar's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call.
My name is Chuck, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations at Canadian Solar. Please go ahead.
Wina Huang
Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Canadian Solar's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Please note that today's conference call is accompanied with slides, which are available on Canadian Solar's Investor Relations website within the Events and Presentations section.
Joining us today are Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO; Yan Zhuang, President of Canadian Solar's subsidiary CSI Solar; Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Canadian Solar's subsidiary Recurrent Energy; and Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO.
All company executives will participate in the Q&A session after management's formal remarks. On this call, Shawn will go over some key messages for the quarter.
Yan and Ismael will review business highlights for CSI Solar and Recurrent Energy, respectively, and Xinbo will go through the financial results. Shawn will conclude the prepared remarks with the business outlook, after which we will have time for questions.
Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that management's prepared remarks today, as well as their answers to questions, will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company claims protection under the safe harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Actual results may differ from management's current expectations. Any projections of the company's future performance represent management's estimates as of today.
Canadian Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future unless otherwise required by applicable law. A more detailed discussion of risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's annual report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Management's prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC Regulation G regarding generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Some financial information presented during the call will be provided on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis.
By disclosing certain non-GAAP information, management intends to provide investors with additional information to enable further analysis of the company's performance and underlying trends. Management uses non-GAAP measures to better assess operating performance and to establish operational goals.
Non-GAAP information should not be viewed by investors as a substitute for data prepared in accordance with GAAP. Now I would like to turn the call over to Canadian Solar's Chairman and CEO, Dr.
Shawn Qu. Shawn, please go ahead.
Shawn Qu
Thank you, Wina, and thank you for all for joining our third quarter earnings call. Please turn to slide 3.
In the third quarter, we delivered 5.1 GW of solar modules, in line with our guidance range. In our energy storage business, we achieved a record quarterly shipment of 2.7 GWh.
Total revenue reached $1.5 billion US dollar, landing at the high end of expectations. Gross margin was 17.2%, exceeding guidance, primarily due to strong contributions from energy storage shipments.
We also achieved a higher share of module deliveries to the profitable North American market. Our solar module factory in Mesquite, Texas, which has now successfully ramped up, contributed meaningfully to both shipment volume and margin.
Absent non-recurring expenses for the previous quarter, operating expenses normalized, and we reported net income attributable to shareholders of $9 million, or a net loss of 7 cents per diluted share due to the impact of paid-in-kind of a preferred shareholder of Recurrent. Now please turn slide 4.
Solar industry is at an inflection point. Anti-involution policies in China are gradually taking effect, and market conditions have stabilized following the most challenging phase of the solar downturn.
A complex macro environment presents both challenges and opportunities. This year, during the anniversary celebration of Canadian Solar's 24th birthday, I reflected on how we have grown with technology innovation, business model evolution, and global diversification.
Today's shifting geopolitical landscape allows us to once again differentiate ourselves through a resilient combination of strategy and execution. Most notably, we are making strong progress in our US manufacturing investments.
Phase 1 of our solar cell factory in Indiana is expected to begin production in the first quarter of 2026, while Phase 1 of our lithium battery energy storage factory in Kentucky is on track to start production 2026 year-end. These factories will strengthen our US supply chain, support domestic energy security, and reinforce our long-term commitment to the American market.
At the same time, we are planning adjustments to our US business to comply with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. We are progressing smoothly and remain confident we will be able to successfully position ourselves to continue servicing our US customers.
The rise of AI-driven data center is fueling unprecedented global electricity demand. As I have emphasized in my public speeches over the past two years, the most flexible and cost-effective solution for powering data centers is solar plus storage.
In contrast, traditional energy sources, such as natural gas and nuclear power, require long construction cycles and have limited scalability. We are now working closely with multiple data center customers to develop deeply integrated solutions.
This requires advanced system engineering, where our technical expertise provides a strong competitive advantage. I am also pleased to share the significant progress we have made in our emerging business segments.
Residential energy storage is on track to become profitable in 2025. We have seen strong growth for our residential energy storage product in Japan, Italy, and the US, and we are expanding into new markets like Germany and Australia.
This marks a major milestone for our energy storage strategy and demonstrates how we are successfully broadening our revenue base beyond utility-scale applications. Recurrent, our solar and energy storage project developer and operator, will continue to balance the growth of our operational project fleet to generate recurring cash flow and selective sales of project asset ownership to manage near-term cash flow.
Given the current market conditions, I have asked our team to tip the balance a little bit more toward sales of project assets in order to accelerate cash recycling and reduce debt. With that, I will now turn the call over to Yan, who will provide more details on our CSI Solar business.
Yan, please go ahead.
Yan Zhuang
Thank you, Shawn. Please turn to slide 5.
In the third quarter of 2025, module shipments totaled 5.1 GW, in line with expectations. Earlier deliveries to two energy storage projects shifted volumes from the fourth quarter into the third.
This led to our largest quarter to date, with 2.7 GWh of storage shipments. Revenue was $1.4 billion, and gross margin decreased by 730 basis points to 15%.
The sequential decline was driven by margin compression in both the solar and storage businesses. In solar, incremental upstream price increases and underutilization raised unit costs.
While module pricing in most global markets remained low, in storage, second-half margins reflect contracts signed at more normalized levels, and a volatile tariff environment drove incremental cost increases. Without last quarter's impairments and benefiting from internal cost controls, operating expenses decreased sequentially from 15.3% of revenue to 12.3%, and we delivered $39 million of operating income.
Please turn to slide 6 for an update on our e-STORAGE business. In the third quarter, we recognized revenue on 2.7 GWh of storage solutions.
Our deliveries reached countries across North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. As of October 31st, our contracted backlog, including long-term service agreements, increased to $3.1 billion, supported by newly signed projects in North America and Europe.
We continue to build momentum in our established markets while entering new ones. In Canada, we signed supply and 20-year long-term service agreements with Aypa Power for the Elora and Hagersville projects.
Together, they total more than 2.1 GWh and are among the largest energy storage facilities under development in Ontario. Also in Ontario, we contracted to deliver a fully integrated energy storage solution and turnkey EPC services for the 1.6 GWh Skyview 2 energy storage projects.
This marks our largest SolBank delivery to date. Once completed, Skyview 2 will be one of the largest battery storage facilities in the nation.
As a proud Canadian company, we're honored to help drive our country's clean energy transition. Across the Atlantic, we just signed a BESS supply agreement and 20-year long-term service agreement in Germany with Kyon Energy, a leading storage developer.
As demand expands across both our existing and newly entered markets, we expect to continue scaling our backlog and diversifying its global footprint. In addition to our established utility-scale storage solutions, we continue to expand our offerings and strengthen our capability in both C&I and residential storage.
Notably, the residential storage segment is gaining momentum, having turned profitable this year. Building on strong growth we have already achieved in Japan, Italy, and UK, we will be launching our new 3-phase solution to drive further expansion in markets such as Germany.
We also plan to enter Australia in the first half of next year. In the US, we have successfully introduced the second generation of our residential energy storage solution, which better caters to the needs of the market and is demonstrating strong initial performance.
In the C&I storage segment, where we see promising market growth potential, we continue to refine and diversify our portfolio to better serve emerging opportunities. Though smaller in scale, these segments have proven to be profitable, and we expect them to contribute more meaningfully next year.
With that, I will hand the call over to Ismael, who will provide an update on Recurrent Energy, Canadian Solar's global project development business. Ismael, please go ahead.
Ismael Guerrero
Thank you, Yan. Please turn to slide 7.
In the third quarter, we generated $102 million in revenue. We monetized over 500 MW of projects, including two high-margin sales: the battery storage project in Italy and a hybrid project in Australia.
Gross margin was 46.1%, a sequential increase of 137 basis points, primarily driven by the contribution of more profitable project sales. During the quarter, we closed $825 million in construction financing and tax equity for the 600 MWh Desert Bloom Storage and 150 MW Papago solar projects, both parts of our multi-project partnership with Arizona Public Service.
These assets are under construction and are expected to begin operations in the first half of 2026. In the US, in addition to what we have in construction, we have already safe-harbored 1.5 GW peak of solar and 2.5 GWh of battery storage projects.
By the summer of next year, we expect to have safe-harbored at least 3 GW peak of solar and 7 GWh of battery storage projects, giving us significant visibility over our execution pipeline for the next four years. Until our IPP business scales further, near-term profitability will continue to depend primarily on global project sales.
As maintaining financial discipline remains our top priority, we will balance the growth of our operating portfolio and project assets with selective project ownership sales to prudently manage cash flow and debt levels. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect to increase the level of project ownership sales to enhance cash recycling and reduce leverage.
Now for an update on our pipeline, please turn to slide 8. As of September 30th, we held interconnection rights for approximately 8 GW of solar and 15 GWh of storage globally, excluding operating projects.
Our total development pipeline now includes 25 GW of solar and 81 GWh of storage capacity. The reduction in solar pipeline reflects a natural rebalancing.
Some projects progress into more advanced stages, while others were removed. At our current scale, our focus is increasingly on executing our high-quality pipeline rather than expanding it.
For example, in the UK, we recently received government approval for our Tillbridge Solar and battery storage projects in Lincolnshire, UK. This project is planned to be an 800 MW PV plus 1,000 MWh BESS project, making it the largest co-located project in the UK to date.
We are proud that Tillbridge will connect to the grid through a substation that was previously used by a decommissioned coal plant, continuing to support the UK's decarbonization goals while providing reliable and sustainable energy to the communities it will serve. Over time, energy storage continues to emerge as a key growth driver.
Not only are battery energy storage systems becoming increasingly cost-effective, but they are also profoundly reshaping energy markets, from grid stabilization and peak shaving to enabling renewables to integrate at scale. Notably, data centers are now placing ever-greater demands on power infrastructure, requiring round-the-clock reliability and often clean energy integration.
In response, the opportunity set for longer-duration, higher-specification BESS is expanding rapidly. We have started to dip our toes into the data centers business through regional JVs with data center experts, mainly in Spain and the US.
We see significant synergies with our core expertise, as land acquisitions, interconnection processes, permitting, and community engagement are four of our core competencies that are crucial to the successful and timely deployment of data centers. Furthermore, powering data centers with clean and reliable electrons is one of the key bottlenecks to data center development, where we have significant expertise to bring to the table.
In Spain, we already have 112 MW of projects with interconnections and land secured in Barcelona, Bilbao, and Madrid, plus an additional 40 MW with interconnections in Madrid waiting to secure land. Finally, our operations and management, or O&M, business also continues to grow healthily.
This quarter, we earned two internationally recognized certifications from TÜV Rheinland: ISO 9001:2015 and ISO 45001:2018. These certifications affirm that our power services meet globally recognized standards for quality and workplace safety.
Today, Recurrent has over 14 GW of solar and storage projects under O&M contracts across 11 countries. Now I will hand the call to Xinbo to review our financial results.
Xinbo, please go ahead.
Xinbo Zhu
Thank you, Ismael. Please turn to slide 9.
In the third quarter, we delivered 5.1 GW of solar modules and 2.7 GWh of energy storage systems. With contributions from accelerated storage shipments, total revenue reached $1.5 billion.
Gross margin was 17.2%. The sequential decline primarily reflected the absence of one-time benefits recorded in the second quarter and the normalizing margins in both solar and storage manufacturing businesses.
Operating expenses decreased sequentially to $222 million, reflecting lower shipping costs from reduced module volumes and ongoing internal cost reductions. Net interest expense declined to $29 million, driven by higher interest income.
We recorded a net foreign exchange loss of $17 million, primarily driven by the appreciation of Chinese yuan. Net income attributable to shareholders was $9 million, or a net loss of 7 cents per diluted share.
This result included a positive $35 million HLBV impact, equivalent to 51 cents per share, from tax equity arrangements tied to certain US projects. The 20 cents per diluted share preferred dividend impact brought the total diluted loss per share to shareholders to 7 cents.
Please turn to slide 10 for cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash used in operating activities was $112 million, compared with an inflow of $189 million in the second quarter.
The difference was primarily driven by change in working capital, notably a decrease in inventories during the prior quarter. Total assets grew to $15.2 billion, with project assets rising to $1.9 billion.
Solar power and battery energy storage systems remained steady at $2 billion as we paced construction activity to manage leverage at the group level. Capital expenditures totaled $265 million, primarily related to US manufacturing investments and existing capacity expansions.
This implies a larger capex outlay in the fourth quarter, and we expect to end the year slightly below our full-year guidance of $1.2 billion. Looking ahead to 2026, we continue to refine capex plans amid an uncertain policy environment, but currently expect spending to remain at levels similar to this year.
Most investments will continue to target the US market. Total debt increased incrementally to $6.4 billion, mainly due to new borrowings tied to project development assets.
We closed the quarter with a cash position of $2.2 billion. Now let me turn the call back to Shawn, who will conclude with our guidance and business outlook.
Shawn, please go ahead.
Shawn Qu
Thank you, Xinbo. Please turn to slide 11.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect module shipments to be in the range of 4.6 to 4.8 GW, as we continue to maintain disciplined volume management. For our energy storage business, we expect shipments between 2.1 to 2.3 GWh, which include approximately 600 MWh delivered to our own projects.
This guidance reflects the shift of certain volumes from the fourth quarter into the third. With Recurrent delivering its largest quarter of project sales this year, we project fourth quarter revenue to range between $1.3 to $1.5 billion.
We expect gross margin to be between 14% to 16%. For the full year of 2026, we project total module shipments of 25 to 30 GW, including approximately 1 GW to our own projects.
Energy storage shipments are expected to range between 14 to 17 GWh. We will continue to focus on profitable solar markets and drive growth in our storage business.
While we will continue to develop solar and energy storage projects, financial prudence remains our top priority. Accordingly, Recurrent Energy will increase project ownership sales in 2026 to recycle more capital and manage the overall debt level.
With that, I would now like to open the floor for questions. Operator?
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.
To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.
If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Our first question for today will come from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.
Please go ahead.
Colin Rusch
Thanks so much, guys, and congratulations on all the progress. On the project sales, can you talk a little bit about the strategy of timing and leverage that you guys are going to deploy in these sales?
You obviously have a great land position, nice interconnection queues, and certainly, potentially can leverage some of those positions into data center deals. Also, you potentially can monetize these things earlier in the process and generate a little bit better returns in select areas.
Just want to get a better sense of where you're coming out in terms of timing and kind of relationships that are going to come out of some of these sales.
Shawn Qu
Colin, we are still working on the 2020— the 2026 AOP, I don't have the quarter-by-quarter Recurrent project sales number in my hand right now. We target to get that down by February.
When we talk in March, in the March earning call, I'll give you more details. However, we have enough COD'd operational projects to sell.
We don't have to sell project early. When you say sell project early, I assume you mean sometime sell at NTP, or even before NTP.
Before NTP, you don't get the value, right? You leave too much money on the table.
If we can sell after COD, we can not only get the value of the project development, but also the project financing, because Canadian Solar, especially Recurrent, is also an expert in the tax equity financing deal in the US market, and there's a value there. We have a budget roughly how many megawatts of project ownership we'll sell each year.
For next year, I guess we have enough COD'd projects to sell. That's for US, but we also sell project in other market, for example, in LatAm, and also in Australia.
Now, Ismael, you have anything to add?
Ismael Guerrero
You said it great, Shawn. Thank you, Colin.
Nice to talk to you. Colin, we have a very strong pipeline and very mature, we are seeing good opportunities to sell with good margins and we are likely going to take them.
That's the overall underlying reasons.
Colin Rusch
Perfect, guys. Then thinking about the battery manufacturing and the supply chain, can you talk a little bit about the maturity of your relationships with suppliers to deliver input materials into the US?
Obviously, 70% of the supply chain is in China, and the vast majority is still in Asia, and so shifting things into North America is a pretty substantial effort. I just want to get a sense of how easily that's coming along for you guys, and any sort of risks that we should be thinking about as you start to ramp up that capacity.
Shawn Qu
Actually there are a lot of suppliers outside China is based. We have a good choice for both solar and for energy storage.
As the OBBBA have some requirements of the non-material assessments level for both storage and for solar, and there's also the domestic content booster, right, 10% booster for both the energy storage and solar. We have calculated that, just by those percentage requirement, we think we will be able to meet in 2026, no problem.
Now I think 2027, the number will go up 5% also, I think is roughly 5% each year, and we should be able to manage that step. We'll be able to meet the OBBBA requirement, and also if we make both cell and module in US, we'll be able to meet the domestic content rule as well.
As I said, we will start production of our own solar cell in US by March. Throughout Q2, we will ramp up.
By second half of next year, we should have reasonable volumes already, and those volume will come with the domestic content the 10% domestic content boost. For solar and for energy storage, our plan is to start the battery cell and pack manufacturing in US at the same time.
I said in my speech that we expect to start production in December. In 2027, we'll be able to provide the energy storage project which also meet the domestic content requirement, to help our customers to enjoy the 10% ITC boost.
Colin Rusch
Thanks so much, guys. I'll pass it on.
Operator
The next question will come from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.
Philip Shen
Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions.
First one is on margins. I think your A-share subsidy reported a 7% gross margin in Q3, but you guys reported a 17% gross margin today.
Was wondering if you could help us bridge that gap. Thanks.
Shawn Qu
I don't think we reported 7. Do we?
Yan Zhuang
Oh,
Shawn Qu
okay.
Yan Zhuang
Well,
Shawn Qu
70% is for CSIQ together, CSIQ, right? CSI Solar have a different mix.
17.2%.
Xinbo Zhu
Yeah, 17. Manufacturing is 15%.
Ismael just commented that the project sales in Q3 were with 46% gross margin.
Philip Shen
Okay. It was the project business that really supported and offset the manufacturing 7% gross margin.
Is that right?
Shawn Qu
Actually, solar may be low, but solar plus the energy storage— It's
Xinbo Zhu
15% for all manufacturing.
Shawn Qu
For all manufacturing, the gross margin Q3 is over 15%. Now, if it's only a module, it's low.
It's below 10% because where we don't get much more
Philip Shen
margins. Thank you, Shawn and team.
Moving on to the next question. As it relates to your 2026 guide, you gave us some color there, which is great, and you continue to talk about the ramping of US manufacturing.
[sighs] And can you give us color on how you're able to do that even though there's still substantial FEOC risk as it relates to either ownership or just meeting the OBBBA FEOC requirements could be challenging. Thanks.
Shawn Qu
Philip, I answered this question in the last earning call. Philip, we believe we can meet the OBBBA requirement by doing certain adjustment.
Philip Shen
Okay. Then, thank you, Shawn, as it relates to the AD/CVD reserve, or with the Auxin case, there could be meaningful retroactive duties, and was wondering, can you quantify how much exposure that might be, and as a result, do you think you might need a reserve for that situation on the balance sheet?
Thanks.
Shawn Qu
You say could be. I would say also could not be, right?
The court process is still moving along, and there'll be quite a while before there's a final decision. If it go to the appeal court, and we have discussed this with our external lawyers and also the audit firm, we don't think we need to book any reserve at this moment.
Philip Shen
Great. Really appreciate taking the questions.
I know some of them are a little bit touchy, appreciate it. Thank you.
Shawn Qu
Thank you.
Operator
The next question will come from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Brian Lee
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.
Maybe just a follow-up to Phil's question. I know you guys are wanting to see the AD/CVD process through litigation, and the case is still pretty early on, but in the event that you did have to accrue a liability or reserve some amount of funds for a potential negative decision, can you help to kind of quantify the range?
I guess back-of-the-envelope math suggests it could be well over a billion dollars if we estimate your US shipments over the past couple years. I guess, first, is that the right way to think about it?
Then second, how would you, again, just playing devil's advocate, hypothetically, if you had to do that, what would be your sort of funding strategy to finance that amount, just given the cash burn and the high degree of net debt you have right now?
Shawn Qu
Brian, I guess you're also talking about the Auxin case. As I said, when I answered Philip's question, we don't think that we have to make reserve.
Therefore, I don't have to do any back-of-envelope at this moment. This is what my lawyer told me.
This is what my auditing firm told me. I don't want to speculate here.
Why don't you ask the petitioner to speculate how much money they can get, or how much money they will be able to get for US government?
Brian Lee
No, I think there are published research around potential value of the claim here. I don't know how accurate they are, but I do think there is a published number, which, again, counts into the billions of dollars.
I'll take that offline. I guess maybe just bigger picture question, we're all just trying to gather more detail.
We know there's no finite answer, but it'd just be helpful if you could elaborate, let's say on the FEOC question as well, you're obviously telling your customers the actions you contemplate taking to make sure you're FEOC-compliant. Is there any insight into those conversations you can provide to give the financial community the same level of confidence around what steps you may be taking to make sure that your US manufacturing investments are going to be justified?
Shawn Qu
OBBBA has very simple and clear rules, which says, a big picture: it require 75% not from the FEOC and no more than 25% from the FEOC if there's two partner, right? If there's only like 1 plus 1 partner.
If there are two partner, two shareholder from the FEOC countries, then the two together should take no more than 40%. There are very clear rules there.
When I said we will make adjustments to meet the OBBBA, I think it's quite clear. It's something like 5 years, like Grade 5 student will know.
As long as you will structure it with this percentage numbers, then you are OBBBA compliant. What else do I have to tell you?
Brian Lee
No, that's helpful color. Then the last question for me, I'll pass it on, is on the asset sales, it sounds like that's definitely going to ramp up in '26, which is a bit of a reverse from the past couple of years as you've been moving toward this IPP model.
It sounds like it's focused on cash generation and delevering. Can you quantify kind of what volume, megawatts, megawatt-hours, you anticipate monetizing through asset sales as opposed to keeping on the balance sheet for '26, and what kind of delevering potential that might result in for the balance sheet next year?
Thank you.
Shawn Qu
As I said, we'll continue to build IPP portfolio. However, given the current market condition, we are going to tip the balance a little bit to be a little bit more cautious.
Also, as I said when I answered Colin's question, I let my board approve my 2026 AOP yet, annual operation plan yet. I will give you more details in March, because typically our board approve the AOP in February.
What I can say now is that given the current market situation, we are going to be a little bit more cautious, we are going to recycle more cash.
Brian Lee
Understood. Thank you, Shawn.
I'll pass it on.
Shawn Qu
Thank you.
Operator
The next question will come from Alan Lau with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Alan Lau
Thanks, management, for taking my question. This is Alan from Jefferies.
Would like to know there's a lot of questions on US policies already, would like to have more overview on the market demand on 2026. What do you think the US installation on solar and energy storage separately?
Thank you.
Shawn Qu
I would like to ask Yan to share his thought.
Yan Zhuang
You're asking for the installation demand in the US in 2026, right? On both storage and solar.
I think the demand is there, right? Also, the safe harbor actually made the storage pipelines there.
I think for 2026, the storage project will be there. Solar as well, the safe harbor also helped to actually to preserve a lot of demand.
On the solar side, I think cell supply can be a bottleneck for the total demand. Although we have a good solution, but does not mean everybody has that.
I hope US will be continue maintain the similar level compared to this year, that's what I hope. I do not see any significant growth.
On energy storage, I think next year US will continue to be strong. That's my view.
Shawn, if you—
Alan Lau
Yes. Thanks, Yan.
I think the investor's focus are overwhelmingly concentrated on ESS. Would like to know what type of growth rate are you looking at, is it like 20%, 30% growth or 50%, or even in China, I think people are talking about even more aggressive growth rates.
Then within that growth, how much do you think it's coming from AIDC demand?
Yan Zhuang
You're talking about growth globally or US, China? Sorry—
Alan Lau
Mainly US,
Yan Zhuang
mainly US. Mainly US.
I think, worldwide, you're talking about data center worldwide, more than half of the data centers built in the US. I think we see a very strong future demand in our portfolio on data center related storage demand.
I think in terms of construction, next year it's not yet. You got to wait for a little longer time.
For next year, the storage growth will still coming from the safe-harbored projects. Those are regular storage projects.
Solar, as I said, I'm expecting flat. That's my hope.
Storage, you're talking about growth rate, I don't have the number, but you can check the industry reports. They vary a lot, the industry reports.
On average, I think there's a growth I don't know, it's like 20% growth? Yeah.
I remember I saw some reports number.
Alan Lau
I see. For ESS demand related to AIDC, you think can probably is after 2026, right?
Then what type of installation you think will be more relevant, is it 2 to 4 hours of system that is for clipping the peak demand, or you are seeing even longer hours acting as some off-grid solution or the main power supply for the AIDC? What type of backlog do you see or requests from clients are you seeing?
Yan Zhuang
I think for regular storage, conventional storage projects, you're talking about mostly in the US, load shift, it's rather like 3, 4 hours, around 4 hours. For data center, to begin with, I think my knowledge, okay, it's more like 2, 3 hours.
It's mainly for smoothing out the load. That's what our studies shows.
Alan Lau
I see. It's more like to— Of course, for longer term, the storage project for data centers will progress into longer and longer period of storage, but the cost is also going up.
The challenge is how do we control cost while increasing the duration. To begin with, the most important application for data center storage is smooth out the curve.
That's the most important starting point. I see.
Just to confirm, it's more like there are some rules in ERCOT maybe like the Senate Bill 6, etc., requiring more stability on the load. The demand you are seeing at least for now as a start is to cope with that request on the grid, right, instead of having long-duration ESS for supplying as the main power supply of the AIDC?
Is this understanding correct?
Yan Zhuang
I think as I said, right, for longer term, it will progress, right? To begin with, I told you, it's more like smoothing out the load, to stabilizing the supply.
That's my answer.
Alan Lau
That's clear. Then finally, would like to ask on how much of the 14 to 17 GWh of shipment is going to be in US?
Yan Zhuang
Actually, we have well diversified our backlog, I would say around 2/3 will be outside of the US out of the total guided volume next year.
Alan Lau
I see. That's pretty diversified.
Thanks a lot for answering my questions.
Yan Zhuang
Also it's small in China, and mostly it's between outside of China, outside of the US. That's the kind of distribution.
Alan Lau
I see. That's very clear.
I'll pass on. Thanks a lot for having that level of clarity on the question.
Thank you.
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.
Please go ahead.
Shawn Qu
Thank you very much for everyone to come to our call, and also thanks for your continued support. If you have any questions, like to set up a call, please contact our investor relation team.
Take care, and have a great day.
Operator
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation.
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