Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA

Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA

31.25
EUR
-0.07
(-0.22%)
22.86BMarket Cap
Feb 11Next Earn

Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptApril 29, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand you over to Mr.

Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

Yves Chapot

Thank you very much. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.

I will have the pleasure to share with you our sales figures for the first quarter of 2026 and try to give a little bit of color about our business going forward. For this meeting, I am accompanied by Bénédicte de Bonnechose, who is going to take over as the Group CFO from June 1st, but I will handle the handle the the presentation.

First, the the quarter, the first quarter of 2026 has started slightly better than what we were expecting. The group is posting a stable revenue at iso-forex.

We have 3% growth in the volumes sold at the Michelin brand in all our replacement markets, across all our business segments. The three M&A operations that we have announced at the end of 2025, early 2026, are going well on completion, and two acquisitions has been already closed as the moment I'm speaking.

The Coolrec Group is integrated for two months over the first quarter, and Flexitallic will be integrated in the group figures from the 1st of April. Nevertheless, the context in the Middle East has cast a spell a shadow over the year to go.

At this stage, it's very difficult for us to assess the precise impact on our businesses, except one certainty, which is the increasing cost of energy and raw material, which is going to impact our our our costs. In this context, we have not changed our guidance for the full year.

I will come back at the end of the meeting over the elements that lead us to maintain this guidance. Looking first at the market, the market in the first quarter of 2026 were negative as expected, particularly the original equipment market.

Passenger car tire market overall is negative, OE being down by 4%, mostly driven by the scaledown of incentive in China and market which is as well decreasing in North America, stable in Europe, but with a mix which is positive in term of electrification, as the European market is posting positive both in OE for electric vehicles. The replacement market is stable over overall.

We have nevertheless to keep in mind that -3% in Europe and the -7% in North America are mostly driven by 2025 Q1 and Q2 anticipated buy from the from the importers in the respective areas: in Europe, due to the anti-dumping inquiries lead by the European Commission, and in North America, due to the perspective of the tariff. So 2025 figures has been, as very distorted by the non-pool businesses, and that's why these two markets are posting negative figures.

On the other hand, the Chinese market is growing by 9% over the first quarter. I do not mention it, but the two-wheel market is slightly growing as well in most of the areas.

Regarding transportation, truck and buses businesses, as expected, the original equipment market is negative, -3%, mostly driven by North America, where the market is at -19%. It is it is in the continuation of what has happened during the last half of 2025.

When we look look forward, although we see that the orders of new vehicle are started to increase in North America, there is still quite important backlog of inventories of tractors inventories at the dealership that will that will take few months to be fully absorbed by the by the market. For the time being, the growth of sell-out of vehicle is absorbed not by the production of new vehicle, but mostly by consumption of already vehicles that are already in the inventories.

North America South American market is as well highly impacted, -16% over the the quarter. On the replacement side, +3% overall, +7% in Europe, -12% in North America.

In North America, it's mostly the consequence of the of the tariff that has led to a surge in import during the first two quarter of 2025. In Europe, the market is quite segregated between a pool and non-pool market.

The growth of 7% is mostly triggered by the non-pool market, the import. We have as well to keep in mind that Jan and February was plagued with some difficult weather conditions in the in North America that has impacted, by the way, both passenger car, light truck, and truck tire market.

On the specialties side, Beyond Road, agro, we see a recovery in small machine segments, particularly in Europe and North America, but high-power tractors market is still depressed at OE. Replacement market is recovering slightly in the in the different zones.

The infrastructure market is posting more favorable trend. Material handling is stable.

Mining market is growing at a modest pace, but with a slight decrease in inventory of of mining companies, but it's still growing. The aircraft market was positive over the quarter.

Having these elements in mind, as I mentioned, the group post a stable revenue at constant exchange rate, but the exchange rate is weighting heavily on the our top line, -€355 million or -5.4%, of of which 70% is coming from the US dollar. Volume So first, in term of scope, we have the positive effect of the integration of the Coolrec Group for two months, which is offset by the impact of the disposal of our compact line activities to the Ceva Group, which explain the very let's say small scope effect over the the first quarter.

Our volumes have lost 1.4% over the quarter, and taking in account strong growth in the replacement markets for the Michelin brand at +3%, and it's mostly trigger, and we will see the detail later on, by the original equipment market, both in transportation and consumer businesses. Price mix is positive, 1.1%.

As planned, the mix the price effect is -0.8%, is mostly due to the effect of raw material prices adjustments, as raw material prices that started to decrease during the second half of 2025. Mechanically, we have the adjustments for around 30% of our revenue.

As well, some measures that were taken that have started already during the second half of 2025 in order to adjust our competitiveness. The mix is positive, +1.9%.

It include both the very positive the the constant effect of our growth in 18-inch and above so in the at the Michelin brand, which now represent 69% of our global volumes at the Michelin brand, both OE and RT, for for the consumer segment, as well as a positive mix effect between original equipment and replacement market. Non-tire sales are stable at iso-scope and currency.

The forex have been already commented. That's the first time that we are presenting our actual figures through our new reporting segment.

The first time that you see the Polymer Composite Solutions segment published separately. I will start by this segment, which is posting 5.1% growth overall, which is basically the only segment posting positive revenue over the quarter.

Which demonstrate the relevance of the of our strategy. Of course, with the help of the the inclusion of the Coolrec Group, plus which contribute 10 points to the revenue growth.

I will later on do a zoom on this on this business segment. Consumer volume are growing by 1.3%, with a contrasted situation between original equipment, where our volume have globally decreased, in line with the market, probably less than the market in China, a little bit more than the market in in North America, due to the different fitment and the the the segment of vehicles where we are present.

The replacement market, on the other hand, are very positive, particularly at the Michelin brand. At the same time, we are still losing ground on the Tier 3 segment, both in Europe and North America, in some element as well in Asia.

Two-wheel posts strong growth over different geographies, including China. The transportation segment is showing, and it's not a surprise, the strongest decline in in volume and due to the contraction of our sales in original equipment, particularly in North and South America.

Replacement sales are positive are positive in Europe and decreasing in your in North America and South America. In the specialties, you see volume growth of 2.5%, thanks to mining and aircraft, but as well stabilizing Beyond Road activity at iso-scope, as the disposal of our compact line business is in the scope effect.

Despite so Beyond Road is stabilizing the situation despite a challenging situation in agro tracks and material handling. Zooming now on the tire performance overall at the group level, you see that most of the 100% of the volume lost is coming from original equipment, mostly equally shared between truck and bus and passenger cars, with a slight decrease in in agro.

On the other hand, the replacements volumes are stable, with the growth of 3% in the Michelin brand and a volume lost in Tier 2 and particularly Tier 3 brands over the quarter. As far as the Polymer Composite Solution is concerned, we have we are we will share with you the the situation of the market not by end market, but by by product.

In the sealing business, we record a very strong performance, in particularly in hydraulic applications. The coated fabrics and films are growing as well, thanks to business development beyond the marine application, which was the main which is still the main destination market for these products.

The belting market is posting a slight growth, particularly in general industrial and aeronautics applications. On the other hand, the conveyor belt market, heavy conveyor belt, particularly the one that are servicing the mining market, are declining, particularly in in Australia.

On top of that, we have an industrial maintenance in a site that takes three months instead of one and that has weighted on the performance of this division in this geography. Overall, we are seeing seeing a solid growth in sealing and coated fabrics, with a slight setback in conveyors.

As we are coming we are zooming on this on the PCS activity, I would just like to to remind you the figure that was shared during the the last Capital Market Day in 2024, and that we have updated. At that time, it was a comparison between 2018 and 2025 2023.

Now it's updated with 2025. Basically, you can see two things on this graph.

First, 2018, which was the first year of integration of Fenner, it's Fenner joined the Michelin Group in May 2018. The Fenner activities were generating €820 million of sales, not including Solesis, the medical application activity that has been later on sold and put in a joint venture with a North American private equity company.

This activity should in 2025 pro forma represent €1.7 billion. It's a compounded organic growth of 3% and let's say a growth generated by acquisition, which is in of a similar magnitude order of magnitude.

At the same time, in 2018, the operating margin of this activity was 11.5%, and it will have been 15% at in 2025. You see as well that the the portfolio of activity has evolved over the period.

In 2018, 2/3 of the businesses was mostly conveyors, 1/3 is sealing, 30% or 25% sealing, and the rest was belting. We have now an activity which is much more balanced.

Conveyor belt is still a very important activity, but it has been balanced with a growth of the sealing and mostly the coated fabrics and films, thanks to the different acquisition that has been done in the the past years. We are still expecting to close the last of the three deals announced earlier, the Tex-Tech company, let's say during around midyear.

Now looking forward for the full year of 2026. At this stage, and being after one quarter, we did not change the the outlook for the full-year tire markets, which is basically stable market, softer in H1 than in H2, and particularly softer in original equipment, both by the way for passenger car and light truck and trucks, during the first half of the year versus the second half.

For the specialty so we means that the market should be around zero both for consumers and transportation overall, OE plus RT. Specialties should post a slight growth, given the positive trend of mining and aircraft.

Again, this outlook has been is the is the same that the one we shared with you at the end of at the begin mid-February and excluding potential systematic systemic impact on the demand following the conflict in the Middle East. Now looking to the situation in the Middle East.

First, in the areas, we have mostly commercial operations. We employ around 100 a little bit less than 100 employees in sales.

We don't have any tire manufacturing activity in the regions. We operate two joint ventures in Saudi Arabia: one in which is the the Michelin commercial operation, and one which is in the sealing activity of our Polymer Composite Solution, which is servicing the oil and gas industries.

All together, the the region represent less than 1% of the group sales. We have set up crisis cells very quickly at the end of very early March in order to monitor the situation, follow potential disruption for regional customers deliveries, look for alternative commercial routes to serve these customers, and of course, monitor our upstream supply chain resilience.

As I said as I mentioned earlier, at this stage, it's very difficult to predict precisely the consequence on the conflict. It will depend on the duration and the extent of of the conflict.

For the time being, we are working on assumption which is translate in oil price at around $100 per barrel for till the end of the year. With this assumption in in mind, we know one thing for sure is that we'll have to face inflation.

You remember that when we start the year, we were expecting a tailwind of €400 million on the raw material. This tailwind will be prob- wiped out by inflation in raw material and energy and logistics.

We estimate that with the scenario that I'm sharing with you, we should have to bear around at least €400 million of additional cost, of which 3/4 are related to raw material and 25% related to energy and logistics. Why only 25% of energy?

Because half of our energy cost our energy purchase are already secure since the beginning of the year. That's the what that we know for sure.

What is much more difficult to assess is the potential impact on the demand, on the tire demand, maybe first on original equipment and maybe then on replacements. Today we do not have any sign of slowdown in the market, but the more we will progress during the year, the more we'll see risk, particularly if the if the conflict is is is not stopping at any moment.

The other element which is as well difficult to anticipate, although we are monitoring it very closely with our crisis cells, is potential disruption on raw material supply. Again, at this stage, we have a reasonable visibility for of our supply till the end of June, but beyond that, it's extremely difficult, given the fact that nobody knows how long and how far this this conflict will will continue.

Obviously, it will all these elements will have an impact on let's say put some pressure on our margin and our free cash flow. The free cash flow is both through the margin, but as well inflation is contributing to let's say the ballooning of our working capital.

At this stage, with the structural levers, the way we manage the operations, the fact that we are vertically integrated in some area, particularly in synthetic rubber, in some other product as well, the localization of our operations, and our proving proven margin resilience in let's say recent similar or very volatile environment, all that lead us to maintain our guidance. Our guidance, I remind, is to generate a segment operating income at iso-scope and iso-forex above the one we generated in 2025, and a free cash flow above €1.6 billion.

In this highly volatile and unpredictable environment, I would like as well to insist on the strength of the group and the fact that we are holding the cap on our strategy. First, we we continue in 2026 to launch a new product to further enhance our in- innovation leadership.

Second, we continue as well to work and to improve our efficiency. In Europe, we have recently announced that we have sold and closed the remaining of our UK retail distribution operations for light vehicles.

We have recently announced the consolidation of our agriculture track activity factories from two factories to one factory in in North America, which lead to the to the close of one of these factory in order to improve the competitiveness of our operations. Last, I I remind that we have maintained our dividend per share for 2025 versus 2024, which lead to a dividend yield of 4.9%.

The group has started, with the help of banks, to complete €750 million share buyback program at that has been launched in the second half of February, and that should be executed by the end of November. Having shared all these elements, I think it's time now to open the Q&A session.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. Please ask your question in English.

First question is from Stephen Benhamou, Bank of America.

Stephen Benhamou

Yes. Good evening, all.

Thanks for taking my questions. I have two questions.

The first one is regarding your pricing. Can you please give us more color regarding your pricing strategy?

I understand that you basically adopted a more aggressive pricing strategy to boost market share gains, notably in the US. Do you expect overall a negative pricing for the year?

If not, how do you intend to increase prices without weighing on volumes? This is my first question.

The second question is regarding your expectation for the cost inflation. You indicate at least €400 million, that includes raw mat, energy, and logistics.

What about wage inflation? Is it a gross or net impact post mitigation measures?

Basically, what's the phasing of those €400 million cost inflation between H1 and H2? Thank you.

Yves Chapot

Okay. Thank you, Stephen, for your question.

Regarding the pricing strategy, as I'm not going to comment our forward pricing strategy, as there is currently an investigation from the European Commission on that topic. What I can simply tell you is that, well, we have on one side the index business, and I will not comment on it because it's quite a mechanical, but it has an impact, and I will come back on that.

On the other hand, we have implement a transformation within the group in order to manage our pricing in more and more agile manner, which lead us sometimes to even in the same category to adjust the price at some SKUs upward and some of other SKUs downward. What I can already tell you is that there was already some price increase announced and implemented, for example, in Europe 1st of May, and it has been communicated on the market recently, because we are already seeing some element of inflation, particularly the energy or the transportation cost, maritime shipping, just to mention it, or even inland transportation.

The answer regarding the balance between price and market share and competitiveness, let's say is in the quality of execution by the team. I believe that since the last quarter of 2025, our team have demonstrated their ability to grow in our market share in particularly in the replacement market, thanks to a very agile pricing strategy.

Regarding inflation, for the time being, well, it's mostly energy and raw material that are impacting us. We have not computed any wage inflation at this stage.

It's something that might happen in the second half if the situation is worsening. Nevertheless, and regarding the phasing, most of the phasing, of course, will be on H2, but we are already seeing, particularly on element that are going directly in the P&L, such transportation, the impact of inflation.

Of course, all the elements that are contributing to the production cost, either raw materials or energy in production cost Energy represent 2.5% of our group sales overall. will impact our P&L probably mostly in the second half.

We have four months of inventory, between raw materials, semifinish, and finish product. Generally, you can count on 4 to 6 months lag between the increase of these costs and the inflation in our cost of goods sold.

Stephen Benhamou

Thank you. Regarding the gross or net impact?

Yves Chapot

It's a gross impact.

Stephen Benhamou

Okay. Did you quantify your mitigation measures?

Yves Chapot

Of course, we quantify it, but what I can tell you is that, as I said, you can classify our business into categories. The business which is mid-term contract with indexation clauses, there will be a mechanical lag effect between the inflation, the increase of cost of goods sold, and the increase of price.

This part will not probably be fully hedged over 2026. For the rest, it's generally we have demonstrated really our ability in the past to hedge our cost.

Stephen Benhamou

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Akshat Kacker, JPMorgan.

Akshat Kacker

Thank you. Hello, and good evening.

Akshat from JPMorgan. I have three questions, please.

The first one on volumes, a very good beat in Q1 versus expectations. Could you just tell us if you are already seeing signs of pre-buys, specifically in March?

We have seen some very strong industry data coming out for March. Have you seen any signs of strong dealer buying ahead of those price increases, or are there any signs of sell-in activity looking different at the start of Q2?

That's the first question. The second question is on the trucks business.

We can clearly see that the truck market in North America could be inflecting from very low levels and the comparables look very easy starting from Q2. On the other side, replacement volumes have been at high levels, you have high inventory.

How are you thinking about overall truck volumes from here for the rest of the year in 2026, please? The last one, coming back to cost sensitivity of the conflict.

Is the €400 million number a second-half impact for this year? Is that how we should think about it?

What have you really built into that €400 million? Is it only the direct impact from synthetic rubber and carbon black, and you haven't considered broader inflation in steel, chemicals, supply chain, etc.?

Just trying to understand the big buckets within that €400 million, please. Thank you.

Yves Chapot

Thank you, Akshat. For the time being, we have not seen any significant pre-buy over the first quarter in any of the regions where we are operating.

We have not not see let's say meaningful meaningful volumes that can be interpreted as a as a pre-buy from from distributors. That's something that we are obviously monitoring very closely, as we are we're monitoring every month the sell-in and the sell-out, so as well the sell of our product to end users by distributors.

For the truck market, well, it's a bit reflected in the in the slide that I present for the for the full-year full-year market. Of course, we are starting we will start particularly on OE to compare ourselves with data that were let's say at historical low level, particularly on original equipment, since the month of April, May 2025.

As I mentioned, I will comment mostly the original equipment market and particularly the North American, which is weighting heavily on our OE performance. Because we have seen the open market slightly rebounding since the last quarter of 2025.

In OE, we consider that, although we have seen an increase in the order of new vehicles, we consider that the market will probably need another three to four months to flush out the overinventory of vehicles that has been built up by the OEMs in the past two years. It's very very probable that over Q2 and even early Q3, we are not going to see a sharp increase in order of tire by OEMs, because they are still selling vehicles that have been produced earlier.

As far as the cost and the duration of the conflict, the €400 million are obviously mostly on H2. As as I mentioned, we're already seeing some very concrete inflation measures, for example in transportation.

We have the assessment we did was so at least €400 million, probably €300 million on raw materials, €100 million shared between energy and transportation. On the €400 million of raw material, we are looking at all raw materials.

Of course, it's synthetic rubbers, a lot of chemicals products, resins. You can if you look at the at the Sicom data, you will see that natural rubber price as well started to slightly increase.

We we we take in consideration all the elements of the different raw materials that we are acquiring.

Akshat Kacker

That's clear. Thank you so much.

Yves Chapot

Thank you, Akshat.

Operator

Next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein.

Yves Chapot

Harry, are you online?

Operator

Harry Martin, your line is open.

Yves Chapot

Maybe we can switch to the next one and eventually call Harry later on.

Operator

Next question is from Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Thomas Besson

Good evening. Thank you.

I'll have a few questions as well, if that's okay, I'll do them one by one. First, Yves, could you say a few words about your North American business?

Last year, you had a horrific Q3, then a much better Q4. In Q1, there's been a lot of weather-related elements or one-off things.

Do you see the state of your North American business in the first half of 2026 more aligned with Q4 or Q3 on an underlying basis, please?

Yves Chapot

Yes, you want to answer, okay, question by question. No, no, but I can answer to this one first.

I will say that Q1 2026 was a little bit in between Q3 and Q4 2025. All the OE market are negative in the US, in North America, both for consumer vehicles or professional vehicles.

I remind that the replacement market in 2025 was boosted by the anticipation of the tariff. It's still a market which is, let's say, in between the two quarter of the two last quarter of 2025.

Thomas Besson

Thank you. To follow up a bit on Akshat's question earlier, could you talk about the April trading?

I understand March has been a very strong month after a relatively soft start of the year. Do we see a dynamic momentum in April, or do you now see any anticipation from dealers of future price increases, or are they still pretending nothing is happening?

Yves Chapot

As far as I know, we have not seen a huge anticipation of dealers on future price increase. When price increase are announced, the magnitude of the price increase is not huge for what have been announced in Europe, for example.

I think I will not comment in April. When we look at our own figures, we have as well to be careful, because 2025 in April, we have a difficult momentum in Europe, negative on April.

Thomas Besson

Understood. Thank you.

Do you have any update to give us on the European Commission China treatment that was delayed from December? Is it still expected for Q2?

Do you expect any retroactive action?

Yves Chapot

We expect the anti-dumping measures to be all announced at the end of the quarter, of this quarter, the Q2 quarter. We did not expect any retroactive implementation.

That's, yeah, at this stage is the information that we have in hand, yes.

Thomas Besson

Thank you. A last one.

Yves Chapot

There will be tariff due to anti-dumping in Europe for passenger car tire probably from July or very end of June onward.

Thomas Besson

Thank you very much. Yves, happy retirement.

Yves Chapot

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein.

Harry Martin

Hi. Can you hear me now?

Yves Chapot

It's better, Harry. We hear you perfectly.

Harry Martin

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

The first one, as you mentioned historically, Michelin's been able to pass on raw material costs without major EBIT impact. I wondered why this time would be any different.

I'm thinking if you see any differences in price premiums, market positions, mix that we need to be aware of or whether if all goes well, you should at least be able to recover a good amount of the inflation over time. Then the second question I had, in the release, you talk about expanding market share in the 18-inch and above segment.

I'd like to hear some more color on which markets you see those share gains coming in, which vehicle types, what price points within 18-inch and above you're having the most success there, it would be useful. Thank you very much.

Yves Chapot

Okay. Regarding our ability to pass raw material effect in the in the EBIT, well, we have, as always, to keep in mind that we have this lag effect for the index business, which play negatively when raw material prices are increasing, and positively when it's stabilizing or decreasing.

That the the first element that you you have to keep in mind, and so we will not probably not fully compensate the full effect of inflation in at least on raw material in 2026. Some part of it, at least for the index business, will be recovered in 2027.

The difference versus past, and if you mention, for example, what happened after the the war in Ukraine, at the start of the war in Ukraine, is probably that we are now already at a high level of raw material prices versus the situation we had before 20 Remember, after 2020, price went down. There will be there was some cooling down of prices in the 2020 end of 2024, 2025.

The question is the ability of the market to accept the the the level of price that this kind of inflation may command. That's the question more on the affordability side.

Regarding our market share, our market share gain in the in the consumer segment, particularly in the 18-inch tires, but on the replacement tires, I will I want as well to share with you that we have as well gained market share in in some segment below 18-inch. In term of market, it's cover let's say mostly all the markets: in Asia, in in Europe, maybe in a less extent in in North America.

When you speak about vehicle, if I take the Chinese market, it happened that I was in China last week, we are quite successful with the with local OEMs, and particularly with electric vehicles. That's where we we are gaining market share, particularly in the for the OE market.

Harry Martin

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo.

Monica Bosio

Yes. Good evening.

I have two questions, and thank you for taking them. The first is, I know it's difficult to answer, but during the last call, the company anticipated a slightly positive volume trend overall in the second quarter and still a light growth for 2026.

I know it's difficult to answer, as the macro scenario is evolving, but are you still confirming a positive volume trend for the second quarter? If yes, maybe if you can give us some flavor across consumers, transportations, and specialties, and if you are still confirming a positive growth in volumes in 2026.

My second question is on polymer composites. I admit I do not very well the segment, but what is the company ability in passing through the raw material cost increases in these divisions?

Any insights could be helpful. A very last is just a check.

Can you split again the euro euro 400 million, €400 million of gross headwinds between raw mat, energy, and other items? Thank you very much.

Yves Chapot

Okay. Thank you very much, Monica.

I will take your question in the last order. The €400 million of headwind following the war in the Middle East is 75%, around €300 million in raw material, and €100 million between energy and transportation costs.

Monica Bosio

Okay.

Yves Chapot

Regarding Polymer Composite Solutions, we are in businesses, except for the conveyor belt, where the weight of the raw material in the production cost is far lower than the weight of raw material in the production cost of tires. Of course, if there is inflators, the companies that are operating these different business will, depending on the respective weight, because it can be very very different between sealing, small belt, or heavy conveyor belt, they will have to adjust their strategy.

It's really local and let's say local product-related operations. Regarding volumes, of course, the beginning of the year and after the two first months, we were on track to deliver a slightly positive volume in 2026.

We have announced that Q1 will be negative, Q2 probably around flat, flattish, and Q3 positive. As you mention it in your question, it's very difficult to answer, but on one side, there is element that are in favor of let's say confirming potential volume growth over the year.

It's the fact that in Q2 and Q3 last year, we have suffered, particularly Q2 in Europe, Q3 in North America. We are going to have a basis for comparison which will be more favorable.

Monica Bosio

Favorable.

Yves Chapot

On the other hand, nobody knows at the moment I'm speaking what will be the impact on the final demand, transportation, mileage driven by consumers when they have the sticker shock of the price of gas oil at the station, or even the impact that price of kerosene can have and even the availability potentially. At this stage, I'm not in position to comment the impact of any of these elements on the final demand.

Monica Bosio

Perfect. Thank you very much, Yves.

Yves Chapot

Thank you, Monica.

Operator

Next question is from Martino De Ambroggi, Equita.

Martino De Ambroggi

Thank you. Good evening, Yves.

The first question is on the supply chain, the raw mat and so on. Where do you see the main risks for your supply chain today?

Could you remind us what is the updated sensitivity to oil price, butadiene, and natural rubber? I have another follow-up later.

Yves Chapot

I will probably give you a very let's say generic information. Geographically speaking, we are expecting more tense situation of the supply chain in Asia, then in Europe, and then in North America.

It's rather in this order. As I said, it's very difficult to decipher where a rupture can occur and how.

Last year, we buy around more than 5 €5 billion of raw materials, of which 20 29% is natural rubber, 22% synthetic rubber, and 21% fillers. Fillers is black carbon and silica.

The rest is shared between chemicals products, around 15%, steel cord, 9%, and textile. That's basically the different source of our raw materials.

Of course, there is a direct sensitivity on the oil price, but some of the product we are using are just derivated from the long oil transformation value chain. That's probably where it's the most difficult to assess.

We know that when the butadiene price is increasing or the synthetic rubber prices are increasing, there is an indirect effect on the natural rubber, because some manufacturers might switch from one nature of rubber to another depending on the prices. I will not try to give you a magic formula of translating starting with the dollar per barrel and translating in million of euro of raw material cost.

Keep in mind as well that we are a global company. All these raw materials are priced in dollars in USD, the underlying currency in USD, and we are purchasing in euro, RMB, Thai baht, and as well Brazilian real and USD.

There is as well an effect on the currencies in our acquisition costs.

Martino De Ambroggi

Okay. Rather complicated.

One housekeeping question. Because I remember in the previous call, you mentioned raw mat tailwind €400 million, that today you are telling us they are erased by cost inflation.

In the previous call, you also mentioned that the cost inflation was in the region of €200 million. I'm unable to match the figures if probably the cost inflation is much higher than €400 million, starting from the €200 million that you commented, or I don't know if I remember correctly the €200 million at the beginning of the year.

No,

Yves Chapot

no. At the beginning of the year, the assumption was the following.

We were expecting €400 million tailwind from raw mat and €200 million headwind from other inflators. Everything, including salaries in some regions, energy, transportation.

This assumption are still valid. On top of that, we are going to get €400 million headwind, of which €300 million is coming from raw material.

You can say that, if it's confirmed, the net effect on raw material would be €100 million versus last year. Another €100 million come on energy and transportation.

The net effect of cost inflation outside raw material should be around €300 million.

Martino De Ambroggi

Okay. Now it works.

Thank you, Yves.

Yves Chapot

Thank you, Martino.

Operator

Next question is from Michael Foundoukidis, ODDO BHF.

Michael Foundoukidis

Yes, hi. A few questions also on my side.

I will ask them one by one as well. Maybe first on the volumes, some clarifications, because I'm not sure I understood correctly what you said.

You don't change your market scenarios versus what you indicated at the beginning of the year. Even you kind of upgrade them when we look at some of the charts, both in OE and replacements seem a bit higher than where they were in February, which is a bit puzzling me, especially on the OE, with S&P cutting estimates from flattish in February to -2% now.

How to reconciliate that, and how to reconciliate also the view that you're saying in the Middle East slide that you expect negative tire demand, but still you don't change at your market scenario? That's the first question.

Yves Chapot

Yes, Michael, we have not changed our outlook globally in term of market both for consumer and transportation.

Michael Foundoukidis

Now, I see the -2, +2 are the same, but some of the charts, where the points are higher. Even if we said that it didn't change, why doesn't it change despite you're indicating that the Middle East issue will have a negative impact on volumes and you also saying that you cannot commit anymore on the Q2 volumes improvement?

Yves Chapot

What I said is that the hypothesis that we share with you in detail, the one that is in the slide 13, has been built without taking in account the potential systematic effect on the Middle East conflict on the final demand. Because for the time being, till the month of March, we have not seen a very different market picture than the one that we described at the 2025 early disclosure.

Michael Foundoukidis

Guidance still embeds a slight volume growth?

Yves Chapot

Yes, slight.

Michael Foundoukidis

We Okay. Then maybe a question on pricing, and for Q2, probably indexation clauses would remain negative in Q2.

Do you think that replacement price is increased that you mentioned in the call are sufficient to, let's say, offset them and lead to break-even on the pricing side? Second question on that side, too, on the mix side, do you expect to maintain this around, let's say, 2% for the full year?

Yves Chapot

On indexation clause, I would not mix the indexation clause that we have seen in Q1 and that we'll see in Q2 that are due to the price of raw material of the second half of 2025 with the fact that we are going to probably see indexation clauses playing in the other way in the very late part of the year because of raw material price increasing now, but that will translate later on in our cost of goods sold. I will not mix that with the increase on the replacement market, because, again, we try to have fair price policy, we don't try to overcompensate one market by the other.

I mentioned very clearly that the overinflation triggered by the situation in the Middle East that will impact our cost of goods sold on our index business in the second half will not be fully recovered by price adjustments because there is a time lag in the application of the clauses. Regarding the mix, the mix was quite strong in the first half.

It will depend on the, let's say, the weight of the recovery of the original equipment volumes. As we can expect a slight rebalance between OE and RT, maybe we'll have a slightly lower mix effect in the second half.

Michael Foundoukidis

Thanks. Maybe a last one, more general to better understand your guidance.

Since February, I would say that volumes are probably more negative than you assumed, cost obviously are also. How do you offset that in your guidance?

Probably pricing of course, that's the number one, but is it only that? Is there anything else that we should have in mind to offset all those incremental headwinds that you have, or was 2026 guidance in February very, very cautious?

Thanks, that's the last one.

Yves Chapot

Your assumption is that, of course, the volume can be, let's say, less positive in the second half that what we were expecting in February. We are going as well to offset that by a strong cost discipline.

As I mentioned at the end of the presentation, you know that we have implemented in the past two years one of the largest restructuring plan that the group has ever implemented. We continue to work on our cost structure.

We have downsized our distribution retail operations in the UK for light vehicles in February, and we continue to work on improving our footprint. What we can say as well is that, probably,

Michael Foundoukidis

Just to follow

Yves Chapot

up on that,

Michael Foundoukidis

any additional restructuring since February, or any measures that you would add?

Yves Chapot

We announced, as I said, in February, we announced the sell and the closure of our retail distribution network in the UK for light vehicles.

Michael Foundoukidis

Yeah.

Yves Chapot

More than 100 point of sales. We recently announced two weeks ago the closure of one factory for agro tracks in the US and the merger of this factory with another one, transfer of the activity to another one which is in a nearby area.

On top of that, what we can say as well is that our volumes and our mix have been better in the Q1 than what we were expecting early February.

Michael Foundoukidis

Thanks. Very clear.

Yves Chapot

Thank you, Michael.

Operator

Last question is from Ross MacDonald, Citi.

Ross MacDonald

Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions.

The first question just on the mix benefits, obviously quite strong in Q1 at +1.9%. Do you have any guide, Yves, you can give on the overall mix contribution for the full year 2026 and what sort of drop-through we should assume for that?

It looks like on channel mix, tier mix, and obviously segment mix are all positive here. How should we think about the overall mix benefits revenues this year?

The next question, and sorry to come back to the net price versus raw mats, but if I take a step back and just look at the bridge from last year, basically, the headwind was really on the raw mat and logistics side, and obviously price mix and volume kind of offset each other. If I think about my bridge for '26, and let's leave price mix and volume to one side, what is the message here, Yves, in terms of the aggregate raw mat headwind and the manufacturing and logistics headwind?

How much to price mix and volume need to be positive to offset that to hit your guidance? If I understood correctly, we're basically wiping out the raw mat benefit for '26, and we have roughly €300 million of manufacturing and logistics, but maybe if you could just split both of those buckets in terms of your assumptions for 2026, and then I can work back how much price mix and volume need to be to offset that.

Then a final question. Obviously, oil is continuing to rise.

We have the tariffs in the US. Sounds like industry pricing isn't moving up too much.

How do you think about value over volume strategy in that context? Is there a benefit to Michelin going after some of the lower-end volume in the US to protect volumes and fixed cost absorption this year?

Just be curious how you think about leaning on your budget brands to maybe shore up some of the volume this year. Thank you.

Yves Chapot

Maybe I will take the the your question in the reverse order, Ross, starting with the last one. Overall, you know that the weight of the raw material and the energy cost and the transportation cost is respectively lower in premium brands or premium products than on entry products, in budget products.

Except if there was a massive let's say tier-down market effect, generally this kind of situation is more favorable for premium manufacturers like us. That's what I can because the the cheaper brands that are mostly imported from Asia will have to bear, first, being in Asia, they are probably impacted by inflation faster than in North America and in Europe, and on top of that, they have to bear the extra cost of the transportation.

That's my my first my first answer. Regarding the the net assumed net price raw material versus in your bridge of 2026, as I said, we we start the year, at the start of the year we're expecting €400 million tailwind on raw mat, and now we know that we have at least €300 million headwind, which is coming from the the events in the Middle East.

Net is still €100 million tailwind. On the load of energy and other inflators, we're betting on €200 million of inflation, on on which you will have to wind the €100 million coming from the impact of the of the Middle East conflict.

Last, regarding the mix, we have a strong mix, but if you look over the the the the past years, we have a mix effect that are generally translated around 1.5% which has moved around 1.5%. We are at 1.9% on the first quarter.

I believe that a reasonable assumption for the full year at 1.5% is probably, let's say, the most relevant assumption that you can you can take.

Ross MacDonald

Thanks, Yves. Maybe if I can squeeze one more in just on the cost inflation point.

Obviously, your analysis, it looks like the chart begins sort of late March, which would make sense. Would that imply there's maybe a further €150 million, let's say, cost headwind into early 2027?

I know it's still very early in 2026, but how should we think about the cost inflation that carries over into 2027 based on your analysis? Thank you.

Yves Chapot

For sure, if the situation is lasting further, there will be a carryover on 2027. Let's take the situation quarter by quarter.

Nobody knows, I've not looked at the news today, when the Hormuz Strait will be fully reopened. I think I would not make any speculation let's say beyond one quarter.

Ross MacDonald

Thanks, Yves, and all the best.

Yves Chapot

Thank you, Ross. I believe it's the last question.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention. Our next meeting is scheduled with the shareholders meeting on the 22nd of May, and I would like to take this opportunity of this last quarterly call on my side to thank you for your attention and to thank you for the very stimulating exchange we had in the past eight years.

Thank you very much, and I wish you a good evening. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation.

You may now disconnect.