Nexi S.p.A.

Nexi S.p.A.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 29, 2026

Operator

Good morning, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Nexi First Half 2026 Financial Results Presentation.

As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Bernardo Mingrone, CEO of Nexi.

Please go ahead, sir.

Bernardo Mingrone

Good morning, everyone, and welcome back to our first-half results call. I'm here today with Piergiorgio and Stefania.

We will take you through our document, and then at the end we will open up the floor for Q&A, as is usual. Let me start with a few introductory remarks with regards to the highlights of the first half.

I would say that the first half has been very much consistent throughout the first quarter and the second quarter. As you can see, revenues grew 1% overall, similar to what it was in the first quarter, also for the second quarter.

Importantly, our underlying growth is pretty steady at around 5%, as we have discussed at length also during the Capital Markets Day presentation back in March. Our EBITDA in the first half was broadly stable, and I would like to highlight how excess cash generation was €400 million, pretty similar to what it was in the first half last year.

A figure or data which is comforting and puts us in a good position compared to our guidance for the whole year. The second thing I would like to focus on is how we're shaping Nexi for future profitable growth.

In this, I just highlight how we continue to make progress on our roadmap to close the valuation gap, at least between how I and the management team perceive Nexi's underlying and true value to be and what it is perceived by investors. We spoke of this back in May with the first-quarter results.

Overall, our strategic initiatives are well on track. We've spoken of in the past our efforts in the ISV space, in the all-important convergence of software and payments, where our initiatives are proceeding as per plan in the geographies in which we operate.

Today, we announce an organization simplification, which has been underway for the last couple of months, and this will help us approach our journey going forward in the most efficient and effective way in the future. It also helps us with our continued and ongoing steadfast commitment to cost containment and discipline.

Piergiorgio will speak about our cost performance in a few minutes. Overall, I'd also like to highlight how, with regards to creation of value for our shareholders, in the first half we have successfully, as expected, obviously, paid out €350 million of dividend back in May.

We have completed the acquisition of the Banca Popolare di Sondrio book in the beginning of the second quarter. We have paid down over a billion euros of gross debt.

I think this was part of an overall strategy that we also discussed back in May of the capital allocation and the most efficient use of the cash balance on our books. We started the year with just under €2 billion of cash.

This cash is being used, as I said, to pay down debt, and will continue to pay down debt as it comes due, make dividend distributions, and also complete the M&A transactions that we had announced. As you will see, gross leverage therefore has come down, and our net cash balance has come down as well.

We will continue to use that cash in the most efficient way, which right now is reimbursing maturities as they come due, without accessing capital markets. Second thing I would like to speak about is something we'll definitely be hearing more of in the future, and it is the digital euro program.

As Nexi's been a member of the digital euro stakeholders group since the start, since 2021. We've been part of the MAG, the Market Advisory Group.

We have contributed to developing the rulebook. We are on the Italian payment community and in general, part of the overall ecosystem that is participating, led by the ECB, in defining the rules and the implementation of the digital euro.

Back in '22 and the beginning of '23, we also developed the first digital euro prototype, and we have been participating, as we've spoken of in the past, to the ECB's public tenders. In a consortium led by [G&D?]

, we won the tender on the offline, and we're now participating in remaining tenders on infrastructure part of the digital euro, we are keen to play an active role in the development of this critically important infrastructure. Finally, the ECB has recently announced that we were selected to participate in the pilot phase of the digital euro, something we're keen to leverage on in promoting a system-wide solution for other banks that would be able to benefit from the technology Nexi's developing in the digital euro in order to socialize the cost of this opportunity and position us as an infrastructure provider for the digital euro to market participants, and something we will be speaking more of going forward.

That said, let me hand the floor over to Piergiorgio, who will take us through the details of the second-quarter and the first-half performance, and then we'll come back to you, open the floor up for Q&A.

Piergiorgio Pedron

Thanks, Bernardo, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today and for your interest in our company, Nexi. Let me start from where we left off a few months ago during our first-quarter result call.

The message what we shared back then remains fully consistent with our Q2 results and confirms once again that we are a business built on resilient and diversified growth drivers, both from a geographical and operational viewpoint, supported by healthy underlying trends. We remain highly disciplined in managing costs and investments, and we continue to deliver strong EBITDA and a robust excess cash generation.

Overall, Q2 confirmed the resilience we saw in Q1, with solid underlying growth and sound profitability, despite the expected impact of bank contract effects across both Merchant Solutions and Issuing Solutions, as well as some softness in consumer spending, particularly in Germany. Starting with the top line, year-to-date revenues are slightly above €1.7 billion, up 1% versus 2025, broadly in line both with our expectations and what we saw in Q1, and consistent with the back-end-loaded growth profile we outlined at our recent Capital Markets Day, with no major deviation to highlight.

Year-to-date EBITDA at €870 million is in line with last year and with our guidance, while Q2 EBITDA at €473 million was slightly below 2025, reflecting the expected normalization of opex phasing that I anticipated and we discussed back in May. I would therefore strongly encourage you all not to look at this quarter in isolation.

I will come back to operating expenses later, but let me say that we're very pleased with the first-half opex growth slightly below 2%, while keep on investing to support the top-line initiatives discussed during the CMD. Year-to-date EBITDA margin at 50.1% was just below 2025, which closed at 50.6%, supported by disciplined execution and the cost control initiatives we put in place over the past few months.

In Merchant Solutions, Q2 revenues were broadly stable year-on-year. This brought year-to-date performance to -0.8%, improving from -1.4% at the end of Q1.

We're beginning to see the gradual recovery we discussed, with further acceleration expected in Q3 and Q4, as our strategic growth drivers gain traction and the impact of bank contract effects reduces. To this point, I'd like to underline the positive contribution of direct channels, where we keep on investing, as outlined again during the CMD, and ISVs, whose impact to our sales is slightly better than our original assumptions.

Looking at the underlying performance, revenues increased by around 3% year-on-year. On volumes, the value of managed transactions continued to expand, supported by processing activities and the ramp-up of the Bancomat processing hub consolidation in Italy.

These remain an important development as it further strengthens our positioning as an infrastructure provider within the payment ecosystem. At the same time, the macro environment softened versus Q1 in one of our markets.

In Germany, consumer spending weakened during the quarter, putting some pressure on volume growth, even as new customer acquisition continued to run ahead of last year. Far, the overall impact has remained contained.

Let me now move to Issuing Solutions. IS delivered another robust quarter, with revenues up 1.5% in Q2 and approximately 3% in the first half of the year, despite the impact of the bank-related contracts.

The result was supported by solid core business trends, with the value of managed transactions remaining very robust and growing by 7% in the first half. Looking at the main drivers, momentum was supported by the ongoing ramp-up of the Nexi Bancomat processing hub in Italy and the completion of the onboarding of a large customer in DACH, together with sustained expansion in international schemes.

This was further complemented by the positive contribution of our business levers, including international debit in Italy and increasing penetration of value-added services across our current portfolio. As we highlighted in May, the first-quarter results also benefited, in part, from favorable timing of certain projects and initiatives, which mainly explain the difference in growth rate between Q1 and Q2.

Going forward, we expect the known bank-related headwinds to become a bit more pronounced in the second half of the year. As a result, we anticipate full-year growth for Issuing Solutions to be in the low single-digit range, fully consistent with the framework we have previously shared with the market.

Moving on, DBS delivered strong results, with revenues up 6% in Q2 and 4.5% in the first half. This was supported by solid volume trends across SEPA clearing, open banking, network services, and pagoPA, together with the contribution of new projects and business initiatives.

We also benefited from favorable timing of certain activities, including bank M&A-related work, while seeing additional contribution from initiatives such as Verification of Payee, CBI Pay, and the digital euro offline project Bernardo just talked about. As we have consistently highlighted, DBS is structurally more exposed to project-based revenues than our than our other businesses, and part of the first-half progression reflects positive project phasing.

While the underlying business trajectory remains very sound, we continue to expect full-year growth to be in the low single digits. Moving on to the next slide, our geographic diversification remains one of Nexi's key strengths, helping us to deliver resilient and predictable growth, despite localized headwinds in specific markets.

Starting with Italy, revenue grew 0.4% year-on-year in the first half, improving from a decline of 0.4 at the end of Q1. Let me remind you that Italy is the region most affected by the bank-related contract effect.

In the Nordics, revenues declined by 1.7% or €5 million in H1, mainly reflecting the migration of a large issuing client at the end of 2025, as we have discussed many times in the past. Excluding this effect, the underlying trend remains solid, supported by sustained momentum in e-commerce, value-added services, and national schemes.

Also in this case, Q2 improved compared with the start of the year, and we expect further progression in H2. Moving to DACH, the region delivered strong growth overall, with revenue increasing by more than 7% in the first six months.

Austria and Switzerland remained very strong also in Q2, continuing to benefit from healthy commercial momentum and disciplined execution. In Germany, however, we experienced a second soft quarter, reflecting a challenging consumer environment, particularly in hospitality, where our exposure is relatively higher.

As evidence of this challenging scenario, Germany recorded one of the highest levels of corporate insolvencies in the last two decades. Despite these market conditions, commercial momentum remains encouraging, with new customer acquisitions increasing at a faster rate over last year.

Finally, CEE continued to grow, even though at a softer pace in Q2, mainly because of some phasing in non-volume-driven revenues and the ongoing mix and pricing pressure in our Polish e-commerce franchise. Let me now turn to cost performance.

As I as I highlighted in our first-quarter call, in our first-quarter call, looking at the single quarter in isolation does not provide a meaningful view of the underlying cost trajectory of our business, because timing and phasing effects can influence quarterly performance. For this reason, I believe the first half as a whole provides the most relevant perspective.

In the first six months of the year, total costs increased by slightly less than 2%, moving from €850 million to €866 million, despite ongoing inflationary pressure on labor and other operating expenses, as well as higher volumes. This result was achieved while investing in the strategic priorities outlined during the CMD, which will support Nexi's future development.

Personnel costs increased broadly in line with our expectations at about 4%, at the same pace we saw in Q1, reflecting salary adjustment and investments made during 2025, plus what we did in 2026, the beginning of 2026, specifically to support our strategic growth drivers. At the same time, operating expenses remained essentially flat year-on-year.

This reflects a combination of continued operating leverage, disciplined expense management, and the first benefits from several cost control measures launched over the past few months. These initiatives span both technology and non-technology spending and are increasingly supported by AI-enabled productivity improvements across the organization.

Overall, I am very encouraged by the progress we are seeing so far, and the first-half results reinforce my confidence that we will continue to manage our expense base with discipline throughout the remainder of the year, and to deliver our full-year profitability and excess cash objectives. Moving on to capex, as we indicated at the beginning of the year, we continue to invest in key pillars of our strategy: growth, platform modernization and consolidation, and product quality, innovation, and security.

In the first half, capex amounted to approximately €168 million. This was broadly in line with last year and slightly better in terms of both absolute capex and capex intensity, while we continue, as said, to invest in strategic growth drivers.

This reflects, once more, disciplined execution, clear prioritization, and our continued focus on cash, cost control, and efficiency. Let's now move on to cash generation.

Our cash conversion profile remained a key strength in the first half. We generated €400 million of excess cash during the period, once again demonstrating the strong cash conversion characteristics of our business model.

This result was was achieved while continuing to invest in the business and funding the strategic initiatives we have discussed many times. Overall, H1 results confirm the resilience of Nexi's cash generation model and give us full confidence in our ability to deliver around €750 million of excess cash for 2026, consistent with our guidance that we reaffirm today.

The strength of our cash generation has also enabled us to continue executing our capital allocation priorities. As Bernardo just said, during the first half we repaid approximately €1 billion of debt maturities, paid around €350 million of dividends to our shareholders, and completed the BPS deal, leveraging our strong liquidity position, while maintaining a solid financial position and preserving our investment-grade credit profile, which was reaffirmed very recently by both Fitch and Standard & Poor's, just in July.

Let me conclude with our outlook for the full year. As you can see on the slide, we are confirming all elements of our 2026 guidance.

On revenues, the underlying business drivers remain intact, and Merchant Solutions is progressively reaccelerating, as expected. At the same time, we continue to see a somewhat softer consumer environment, particularly in Germany, as I said, and the second half includes important seasonal periods, such as the summer and year-end, which naturally carry a higher degree of variability.

Taking these factors into account, our current view remains that revenues are on track to be in line with our guidance, with the final landing point depending on the normal evolution of consumer spending and seasonal dynamics over the coming months. Importantly, we also have a high degree of confidence in our ability to deliver our EBITDA guidance and our excess cash target of around €750 million.

Once again, this confidence is supported by the flexibility we retain on our cost base, and by the strict cash control we demonstrated in the first six months of the year. With that, we can start the Q&A session.

Thank you.

Operator

Excuse me, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and 2.

Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time.

The first question is from Sébastien Sztabowicz from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead, sir.

Sébastien Sztabowicz

Hi everyone, and thanks for taking my question. On short term, how do you see volumes trending since the start of the quarter?

Have you seen any specific change versus what you have seen in the second quarter? Now you mentioned some softness in Germany, but also in Italy.

Could you please elaborate a little bit what is happening in those countries? Second question, on the run-down of some specific projects including Banco BPM in Italy and Nordea issuing, where are we standing right now in terms of progress?

Are you in line with the plan, are you doing it better or worse than initially expected? Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone

Morning, Sébastien. Thanks for your questions.

With regards to volume evolution throughout the first half, I would say there's not been anything material to call out in terms of fluctuations or others. As we always point out, it's very hard to glean any information from one week to the next.

I would say that overall, the six months were pretty much aligned with our expectations in terms of development. This is throughout the group.

Then Piergiorgio called out, I think, Germany rather than Italy and Germany. In Germany, indeed, we all read the press and we've all read about very substantial redundancies being called out in the auto sector, with hundreds of thousands of people being laid off.

In general, the macro environment in general in Germany has been worse than our own macro expectations, which we had put underlying the plan. Now, this is obviously contributing to a slower-than-expected performance in Germany, but I wouldn't make anything more than that out of it because, as we've discussed in the past, most of our growth comes from increased levels of penetration, and in Germany in particular, our real bet is not so much on macro performance, but on increased penetration levels.

Germany is one of the countries with the lowest levels of penetration of digital payments, and increasing market share because we are a smaller player in Germany than some of our competitors. That said, Germany is suffering from the macro, but hopefully things will improve over time and that will also help us.

In general, the environment in terms of also the holiday season and tourism, etc. doesn't highlight anything we should be concerned about.

With regards to the migrations, I would say, of the customers that you mentioned in Italy, I think what you see in our first-half numbers largely reflect our expectations with regards to the migration away from Nexi of those banks that churned back in 2023 and '24 that we spoke so much of during our Capital Markets Day. The churn was both in issuing and acquiring with regards to Banco that you mentioned earlier.

It started with acquiring, and now, moving into the second half of the year, we are going to kind of benefit from the fact that that is over compared to last year where it was in full swing, and the first half of this year when it was being completed. What we had guided you to was that we would have a gradual improvement over 2026 between first half and second half on the merchant solutions revenue front.

You can see that the negative growth in Merchant Solutions in the second quarter is improving compared to the first quarter because of this effect. The year-on-year lapping of the exit of Banco is coming to an end, and in the second half we expect an acceleration in Merchant Solutions simply from the comp effect.

That's happening. Then we also said that the migration away from us would switch from Merchant Solutions or from acquiring to issuing, and that is starting.

Banco has started, and as you can see, issuing has slowed down in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, and this will continue in the second half of the year. I would say this is mostly as planned.

On the issuing front, we also have the Nordic customer that you mentioned, whose impact also started during the first part of the year and actually started many years ago, and will be exhausted by the end of this year.

Sébastien Sztabowicz

Just on Germany, what was the trend exactly in terms of revenue in Q2 and in Q1, just to understand a bit the deterioration that you mentioned?

Bernardo Mingrone

I think for the second quarter, I'll hand the floor to Piergiorgio who can give you more details, but obviously, the second quarter is slightly worse than the first one.

Piergiorgio Pedron

Sébastien, hi, and thanks for the question. If you look at our slide where we present the revenue by geography, and you do reverse engineering compared to what we presented in Q1, you would see that Q2 overall, DACH, the region, is growing more or less by 2%, give or take, right?

As I said in my written remarks, DACH is the sum of Germany, Switzerland, and Austria, with Germany being the biggest player by far. This plus 2% is a little bit better than what Germany did per se, since, as I said, Austria and Switzerland are doing fine.

Ballpark number, call it between 1% and 2%, Germany, and the other two small geographies, they're growing a little bit more than mid single digits, mid-to-high single digit.

Sébastien Sztabowicz

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Justin Forsythe from UBS. Please go ahead, sir.

Justin Forsythe

Good morning, Bernardo and Piergiorgio. Thank you very much.

First question from me, just wanted to ask around excess cash and the moving pieces. I think we were expecting a little bit more of a 2H weighting despite the tax impacts as you've flagged and consistently hit in 2H.

Maybe you could just walk us through if there's anything you're expecting that maybe you weren't expecting initially to hit excess cash negatively in 2H, and walk us through the moving pieces there. I wanted to ask a follow-up on Germany.

You talked a little bit, Bernardo, about the layoffs in the automobile sector. Piergiorgio, you flagged specifically hospitality.

Maybe you could just talk a little bit about the specific challenges there. Is that, say, people flying to Germany from places in the Middle East?

Is it more due to economic hardship across the region? Is that more in food and beverage?

Just trying to get a feel for the dynamics there. What does this imply for the rest of the year?

I guess you feel very comfortable reiterating the guidance, you still expect that acceleration in Merchant Services through the rest of the year? I guess one other follow-up on Germany, you spoke a little bit about software-led or ISV distribution in Germany.

I remember that business actually being a lot of direct distribution, maybe you could talk a little bit more about where you're having success with the ISV business. Is that more orderbird?

Is that partners that you're bringing up through the pipe, etc.? Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone

Thanks. Thanks, Justin.

Let me try and answer all three of your questions, or four, but I'll place the fourth the fourth one with the second on Germany, and then Piergiorgio obviously can help me where I get stuck. With regards to excess cash, there is some seasonality with it, so, especially on things outside of the P&L, if you think of of capex and the phasing of capex, that obviously helps or or contributes to cash generation, and the timing of that is is less predictable.

It's less of a flow, it's more lumpy and got to do with projects. That said, so, indeed, given our guidance of 750 for the year, and the fact that the second half is generally, 52%, 53%, I'd say, weighted compared to the first half of the year in terms of EBITDA generation, and hence, also cash generation, notwithstanding taxes being in the second half.

All that said, a bit better than than we expected, but that that is also to do with one of the points I made earlier. One of the things that we're working on is obviously to try and perform as well as we can on costs, and in general on cash generation.

I think we're being successful on that front. I believe that, the cash generation in the first half is a good indicator of our performance for the year, and the fact that we are very confident that we will meet our our guidance at this stage of the year.

There's nothing lumpy, one-off that you should normalize for. It's just in general, something that, that that we're working on, and and we're doing well on.

On Germany, I I'd go back to my my remarks about how Germany is for us a market in which we win or or lose more on based on our ability to develop our distribution channels successfully, and our ability to win market share from competitors given where we start from, and on the fact that the German market, a kind of rising tide of of of payments that lifts all players in that space. That's much more important than the macro.

That said, when you're talking about one percentage point to two, three percentage points of of of growth, which is, one or two million euros or three million euros in in a year, obviously also macro impacts. I think everything we mentioned and you reiterated contributes to that negative effect, the fact that, unemployment is going up in Germany or people are being laid off, obviously that leads to consumption being under pressure.

In general, the the the the HoReCa space is is is less is not growing as much as it used to. It's actually, hitting a rough patch, and I'm not able to answer, to answer the question as to whether this is Middle East tourism that is coming down.

In general, what we see is is restaurants and and hotels being less, less productive than than the past for us in terms of volumes. What I've focused on is how our strategy to win market share is performing, and on that front, given that you asked questions about the channels, I think we're doing we're doing pretty well, if not very well, on the ISV channel and the partner channel.

That includes the ISV channel obviously includes orderbird, but in general, the ISV channel and and the partners are doing very well. Where we need to think long and hard about our strategy is the direct channel, where we're, struggling a little more.

Again, this is growing pains, I would say, in a market which represents for us a great opportunity, given its size and given the level of underpenetration. With Thomas, who came on board last year, about one year ago, actually, we're seeing if there's anything we need to change in terms of the direct distribution effort to make it as productive as as we can.

With regards to the rest of the year, the forecast for the rest of the year, in general, we we, we always caution not to read too much into short-term performance, because, there are quarterly swings tied to project work, timing of of certain issues, etc. I think the first half this year has been very steady, very predictable, and I would just stick to what I said earlier.

I think we and Piergiorgio reiterated, I think we feel very comfortable in terms of our overall performance for 2026 given our guidance, and that the further down you travel in the P&L, the more control we have, and and we feel most comfortable, obviously, on cash generation, where we have the most levers to act on, and and the way we close the first half is is is a good place to be.

Justin Forsythe

Awesome. Thank you so much.

Appreciate it.

Operator

The next question is from Hannes Leitner from Jefferies. Please go ahead, sir.

The next question is from Nooshin Nejati from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nooshin Nejati

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Two on my side too.

Maybe follow up on Justin's questions, actually. I appreciate you mentioned seasonality and that there was no one-off to account for.

What are the main reasons not to think this continues in H2, the excess cash, and you would basically end up above your guide? I guess I'm asking if guidance is now conservative, or there are specific elements to consider for H2.

Then maybe if you can, please help us bridge to FY margin outlook. How should we think about cost growth in H2 relative to Q2, and maybe the difference between the quarters?

Bernardo Mingrone

I think you're trying to, force us into revising our guidance anyway, which we're not going to do. The guidance is what it is, and, we're planning to do at least €750 million of excess cash.

We're at €400 million. There is no no, unusual seasonality that I expect in the second half of the year compared to prior years.

We pay taxes in the second half of the year, you have that, but the second half of the year is also heavier in terms of cash contribution coming from the business because of the summer months and December, and that is true every year. I think in general, what we're doing, I go back to my opening remarks, we're working, Piergiorgio and I and the rest of the team is is very supportive of this, we're working to make sure that that we can, fund the investments we're making in our in our growth, in our growth strategy, which we spoke of at length during our Capital Markets Day, through greater efficiencies.

Of course, the world is evolving very quickly, and AI and other instruments that are available to us today are helping helping this this efficiency gain that helps fund these investments, that helps our performance. Again, we give guidance on a yearly basis, and and we will, we will, report on a quarterly basis how we're doing, and and that's the €400 million compared to 750, 750 minimum level for for 2020 2026.

On the on the cost growth, so, we saw the we closed the the quarter, or the the the the first half at just under 2%, 1.9% cost growth. We are shouldering the the the the cost or the investments we're making in ISV and the direct sales force, primarily, I'd say, in the in the ISV channel and direct sales force, but not only, obviously, as we deploy AI more pervasively throughout the company, we have increasing costs related to that.

It's, it's it's an investment well well placed in my mind. Notwithstanding this, we are able to contain our costs through, continued efficiencies.

I think a number of times we've spoken of how Nexi has, come together as three companies back in 2021, and these three companies brought with them a number of, platforms and complexity which we are working to to minimize and reduce. The the the cost outcome coming from the reduction of this complexity helps mitigate the upward pressure on costs.

This has always been true. I think we've always been consistent in terms of being able to manage our cost growth in a way that it it is lower than what you'd normally get inertially from just volume growth, inflation, wage drift, and and the likes.

Also, thanks to the the fact that we started with a pretty articulated and complicated IT landscape that we're working to we're working to to simplify. This will continue in the second half.

We we we do our best, and we work to try and do as as well as we can and to beat the the guidance that that we've given you, but that remains the guidance.

Nooshin Nejati

Thank you. Very helpful.

Operator

The next question is from Alexandre Faure from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead, sir.

Alexandre Faure

Good morning. Thank you very much for letting me on.

I have about three questions, I'm afraid. First one is going back on cost growth that you just talked about.

Now you talked about this sort of simplifying the organization and so on. Should we expect any cash outflows relating to those efforts coming through in the second half maybe, or in 2027?

Second point, sorry to get back to that, but on the guidance question, and I heard what you say on sort of EBITDA and free cash flow guide, was more curious on your net revenue guide. Does this hold at current macro, or you'd need a macro to go back to what it was in Jan and Feb in the second half to sort of get to that net revenue mark?

Finally, I was surprised to see that Merchant Services installed-base revenues seem to be coming down quite a bit, again in Q2, if you could remind us of what's in there, and what's been causing the decline for a couple of quarters in a row now? Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone

Sorry, Alexandre. I couldn't find the [laughter] but you shouldn't apologize for your questions.

We're here to answer them, I'm happy to take them. Cost growth and simplification, as I said, we are in the process of reorganizing ourselves so that we can be as lean as possible in terms of all our decision-making processes, in terms of our go-to-market, and this reorganization will generate efficiencies which were probably not baked into the numbers back in March, because simply they were born out of a change which occurred after the Capital Markets Day.

This is obviously going to help us, I would say more so next year than this year, given where we stand in the year and when these things are actually happening, but obviously there is some benefit in 2026 as well. What I'd like to point out is the way we have approached this as a team is that we need to fund all investments, including in our efficiency, from the business.

The guidance we're giving you includes anything we're spending in order to become more efficient, there's not going to be a surprise between now and year-end with saying there's a big restructuring charge or something like that associated with this. Our guidance is including everything, which doesn't mean there's no costs associated with it, but it's funded by other savings, other initiatives, other, let's say, also phasing effects, or things we might decide not to do period.

You're not going to get the restructuring charge like we had in 2024 or something like that. That said, going forward in the next few years, every, I think, six or seven years, we have the opportunity in Italy in particular to have early retirement windows open, etc.

This is not something we're considering today. Doesn't mean that in the future at some point we might not do so again.

As I said, nothing is planned, nothing was in the plan numbers, and nothing will be happening for sure between now and year-end on that front. On the revenues front, I'd say, go back to the comment on Germany.

It actually holds true for the rest of the group. Obviously, better macro helps, especially when revenues are growing 1%, every little bit helps to improve that revenue growth, and macro does as well.

Our forecast for the year supports the fact that we believe that revenues will grow in 2026, similar to how they grew in 2025. Obviously, we hope that macro helps us achieve this and we do better, but right now, that's where we are, and so we'll stand by that.

Then finally, on installed-base revenues in MS and the quarterly evolution, I'll hand the floor back to Piergiorgio, who's closer to the detail there.

Piergiorgio Pedron

Thanks. Just an additional comment, if I may, on the on the cost guide.

I believe, even though it was not part of our official guidance, going back to the Capital Markets Day, we showed a slide with was saying that we would have expected our cost base, our opex to increase '26 over '25 by 5-6%. If you do the reverse engineering of where we ended up in in Q1, you would end up for with a growth opex growth rate implied in H2 of around, let me say, 5-ish to 6%, kind of.

We're, I would say, aiming to be on the lower side of that range, the 5 to 6% we talked about, and that is going to give us all the flexibility we need in case of further deterioration of macro conditions, or, variability to deliver what we committed to deliver. That that really makes us comfortable there.

When it comes down to, installed-base revenues vis-à-vis non-installed-base revenues for MS, as you might remember, give or take 25-28% of our installed-base revenues of our revenues in MS are driven by installed base, it it just takes a couple of millions more, quarter to quarter to change those percentages. I wouldn't read too much into into that number.

If I look at volume, and I compare Q1 '25 with Q1 '26, and once again, if you go back and look at the numbers, you would see that the volume revenues is increasing, nicely, I would say. It's around 1.5%.

Installed-base revenues, quarter on quarter, are going down. If you look in also in DACH, it's the same story.

They're going down by 8%, but there, once again, you have some phasing of projects, plus some pressure on terminals, price pressure on terminals, but again, most of it I would say is phasing of non-volume-driven.

Bernardo Mingrone

I think just in general, it's fair to say that there is margin pressure, I would say, or more pressure on the terminal pricing than there is in acquiring, which we are compensating with acquiring. That's throughout the market.

Some players offering terminals for free, maybe ahead of IPOs or things like that.

Alexandre Faure

Got it. Thanks very much for the candid answers.

Operator

The next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco from Tramonte. Please go ahead, sir.

Antonio Gianfrancesco

Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. Just one from my side on digital euro.

I was wondering if you can help us to understand what kind of investments, let's say in terms of capex, are required in next 12 and 12 12 months, 1, 2 years, whether they are already included in your current capex plan, and when we could start seeing an impact in terms, let's say, of incremental revenues. Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone

Thanks for the question, Antonio. Our guidance includes everything we're doing, it includes also the work we're doing on the digital euro.

Right now, in this startup phase, in this pilot phase that we're working on, the investments are, if we're talking about the work we're doing with the ECB and helping the ECB develop the framework, obviously they're compensated by revenues associated with them. We're not talking about huge amounts of revenues.

We're single-digit kind of million euros for the time being, and similar amounts of investments associated with them. With regards to the development of the pilot, the capabilities to participate in the pilot phase, again, given where we are in the year, smallish investments required, but I think significant potential going forward, because let's say my ambition would be that Nexi can serve its partner banks, not only in Italy, but across Europe, in helping them socialize the costs of being able to adopt the digital euro, by having us invest once and then using us as a common infrastructure for them for sure on the acceptance rails, but potentially also on the wallet side of things going forward.

Obviously, digital euro is only expected to come into being in 2029, potential revenues will only become realizable from our position in the market as this kind of an infrastructure provider probably in 2028. I would not expect it to be sooner.

Right now, we're trying to position ourselves for the pilot banks, and we'll see how that works, and that might bring some benefits sooner, but not material in the short term.

Antonio Gianfrancesco

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Hannes Leitner of Jefferies. Please go ahead, sir.

Hannes Leitner

Yes. This time not muted.

The first question is, you talked quite a lot about macro weakness, softness, and that the guidance depends on consumer spending. Feels a little bit like cautious stance.

Where do we are in those trend lines, and so that's the first question, really getting a little bit more a granularity. Where do you see actually you have more outperformed to your plan to get to the headroom, because clearly macro looks worse today than a couple of months back.

Then the second question is again on Merchant Services, and maybe there international schemes have been slowing. Is that partially related with the contract run-offs or have you done the migration mostly in Italy, and now you have a much bigger share in international schemes?

Just the last one is, if you look at underlying growth for the group, you talked about 4%, Merchant Services just three, that would imply underlying growth in Issuing Solution around 5%, or reverse, €10 million headwind from the bank contract run-off. Is that the quarterly cadence we should expect now let's say for the next nine months or 10 months?

Thank you.

Bernardo Mingrone

Thanks, Hannes. Let me let me try and answer these, and then obviously Piergiorgio can can help me with the greater granularity you're looking for.

In general, overall, the macro weakness is, ultimately, our revenues are growing 1%, right? They're not growing 5%, which is the underlying, and part of that, we're not outperforming our own guidance also because of of macro.

I think I think it's pretty homogeneous throughout Europe. We called out Germany because it's definitely, suffering a bit more than other other regions.

In the past, we'd discussed Finland and Sweden. They're smaller than Germany, lower contribution.

I'd say that no one is doing particularly well. The Nordic countries, Denmark and and Norway, nominal growth is actually quite healthy there, with a bit of inflation.

Economies, that's like close to 5%, if you want, and that that helps. I'd say they're probably doing better than elsewhere.

Italy is not doing that badly also for us in terms of our revenues. It's not like there's one country that's firing on all cylinders and, outperforming and dragging everything else up.

I think in general, the climate is subdued, and hopefully, things will improve as time goes by, and this will also help us close that gap between where we're growing at today and historically where we've been growing at. That comes to the last point you were making, the 5%.

Yes, the it's actually 5% on average for, for for the for the group. Of course, if you look at the the second quarter, it's it's 4%, but, I I'm always, go back to what we we caution, which is, quarterly performance you need to then normalize for for weekends, for holidays, for, the weather, all these kind of things.

Overall, I think we are pretty stable around that that 5% mark historically and and for the first half of of the year. As you were noting, that we have a very diversified group, which makes it difficult for us, given the diversification of businesses, of regions in which we're in, of levels of penetrations of the countries in which we operate in, and and and therefore, the structural capability of the group, it has both the the cons of being diversified, it's unlikely that as a group we can grow our top line, mid teens in terms of growth, even though within the group we do have businesses that grow in double-digit space, like e-commerce, like historically, for instance, some areas like Poland or or whatever.

As a group, the diversification is such that on average we'll grow less, and we've highlighted how we believe that, structurally we're capable of growing in line with our historic underlying growth. That said, also on the diversification helps us when Merchant Solutions is growing less than expected, you have Issuing, which is very predictable and is growing 5% and pulls the average up.

It also has to do with the phasing of the exit of the bank contracts that we you were speaking of or I was speaking of earlier. Far, we've suffered on Merchant Solutions most on the migration away of us from us, because it's easier to migrate away a merchant from from your acquirer.

You give them a new terminal and they start accepting on that, and it's easier. Migrating a card portfolio is much more complicated and much more time-consuming, and frankly speaking, also from an operating standpoint, risky, and that's taking longer, and it will evolve over the next probably 12 to 24 months.

We fight tooth and nail to try and make it as slow and painful as possible to migrate away from us. On the other hand, they're trying to do it as quickly as possible, and we'll see who is most effective.

That's how it will evolve. For sure, it will hit us.

It started to hit us in 2026, the the issuing side, and will continue throughout throughout next year. I don't know, Piergiorgio, if you want to answer anything on this.

Piergiorgio Pedron

No, I have nothing to add. Thanks, Bernardo.

You covered it very well.

Hannes Leitner

International schemes?

Bernardo Mingrone

Sorry? [Yeah.]

I think we have no more questions, hand it back to the operator.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over.

You may disconnect your telephones.