Olvi Oyj Class A

Olvi Oyj Class A

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Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 22, 2026

Patrik Lundell

Hi, and welcome to our Q3 interim report. It's a pleasure to have you here, and thank you to those joining us in the room.

Before we get to the contents, I want to remind you of the disclaimers. Of course, whilst we're looking predominantly at the Q3 results, we'll also make references to our expectations going forward.

That always entails a certain degree of uncertainty. Before we get to the actual contents, I'm pleased to introduce you to Juha Kauppinen, who is our new CFO and taken over from Tiina-Liisa since a few weeks back, effectively from the beginning of October.

Welcome, Juha.

Juha Kauppinen

Thank you. Happy to be here.

Patrik Lundell

Great to have you. Let's get to it.

As last week we had to issue a negative profit warning, and I'm glad that we can be here today to share a bit more context with you as to why this is our expectation for the year. I want to start by emphasizing, though, that volumes are growing, net sales are growing, and this is to a great extent attributed by our acquisitions.

Our profits are also doing well, but they're lagging behind, catching up to our top-line performance. A few highlights.

I want to start by pausing on our portfolio, our core business, which is doing really, really well. Our brands are strong, our market shares are strong.

We've introduced some new products in a number of markets. These launches have been successful.

I believe we mentioned in one of our previous quarterly reviews the soft drinks launch in Finland, for instance. We've been able to take share here.

Things are going well. This is also reflected in our margins.

Our portfolio play, when it comes to mix management, has worked as planned, and that has helped us cover some of the costs that are impacting our business. Now then pausing on the acquisitions for a while.

Four acquisitions are all complete and now included in our numbers from the third quarter. Integration work is, of course, ongoing.

Already in this first year, they're contributing positively, not only top-line, but also on a profit level, albeit marginally. We will conclude these integrations by the end of the year, and look for profits to start materializing through synergies from next year onwards, starting with 2027.

Now then, rest of Europe. This is the new segment that we call it, and in this quarter's report, we have also wanted to help the market and the analysts by separating out organic and inorganic growth.

When we zoom in on rest of Europe, we want to highlight a few things. First, the Baltics.

In the Baltics, performance is solid. We are growing both net sales and EBIT.

The same impact and softness of market that we've experienced in Finland, we also see to an extent in the Baltics, but we're performing in a competitive market. The negativity in the figures, as it pertains to the segment of rest of Europe, are, unfortunately, still driven by Denmark.

All our efforts to turn the market around have not yet carried the dividends that we're expecting. We hope that that will, and expect that to change in the foreseeable future.

Now then, briefly on cost pressure. Cost pressure is, of course, driven by the geopolitical situation.

We've spoken about that already for a number of years, it feels like. This year, it's been accelerated, particularly around transport costs driven by the oil price, which then spills over also on PET packaging material and aluminum, and, effectively, a broad spectrum of our raw materials.

In essence, a key reason for the adjustment and the negative profit warning was a slower-than-expected recovery of the market. There's been some positive signals for some months already in the economies across our operating markets, but, unfortunately, that has not translated yet to increasing consumer spending.

Also, we did not get a boost from weather this third quarter, quite the opposite, as we'll see when I get to Finland, and we had the opposite effect. A few more words on the third quarter.

The Värska integration, the final one to be completed, it was completed, and the numbers were included from July onwards, as we have shared. The full effect of that integration is materializing now as we've taken over distribution locally as well.

Of course, there's work on finalizing the integration and to get to those synergies which I mentioned will happen next year. The gross margin part: I think this really speaks to the relevance and the effect of our strategy more broadly.

As we've invested in analytics. We've improved our efficiencies across our factories.

We've optimized our portfolio, and we strengthened our brand. This clearly is resonating, not only in terms of protecting gross margins, but also our share on shelf.

Consumers are more and more choosing our products at the moment of truth there in stores and restaurants across our operating markets. We believe that this places us really well for the future, enables us and allows us to continue driving sustainable growth also in the future.

Now then briefly on the segments and the third-quarter performance across the segments. I already made a reference to Finland.

The numbers in isolation are quite negative, that's clear, but what I want to build as context is as well, if you refer to the Finnish Brewers' Association's numbers, you will see that in the third quarter, the whole market came down with 7%. We're performing better than the market, but in a challenging market.

In Finland, again, specifically, we had a strong summer last year, which we're now overlapping. We had three weeks of really perfect weather across the country.

This year, we've had the equivalent number of warm days, but they've been spread out into smaller pockets of the country. That's clearly seen in consumption, which is mainly driven down through water and beer.

The story is quite clear there. The model's not broken; consumption hasn't escaped.

It's a weather effect. Now, on the rest of Europe: already mentioned, acquisitions are driving performance, and you see the positive number development.

Importantly, the Baltics are growing also organically. Denmark continues to be an area of focus for us.

Belarus, on the other hand, had pretty much a flat quarter when it comes to volume development. That's on Q3.

Now, Juha, I'll give you the chance to talk us through the full year or year-to-date results, please.

Juha Kauppinen

Thank you, Patrik. Indeed, if we look at the year-to-date performance, January-September, we are showing strong growth, supported by the acquisitions.

Volumes have grown by 4.4%. However, organically, they declined and are behind our expectations due to the reasons Patrik already elaborated on, particularly in the third quarter.

The market was soft. Net sales has grown 13%, and that growth comes both from acquisitions and also organic growth.

That is supported by our strong product portfolio, our own product launches, and the positive development of the average selling price. Year-to-date, we've delivered €70 million of EBIT.

That represents growth of 6.5%, despite the headwinds we're seeing in inflation and despite the challenges we have in Denmark. If we then break down that year-to-date performance to the segments: In Finland, as Patrik elaborated, we had a softer third quarter, and following a strong first half, the soft third-quarter demand brings down the growth numbers in Finland.

For the rest of Europe segment, there are basically three things happening. All in all, it's a positive development, but we see three three different developments.

Solid performance and organic growth in the Baltic countries, albeit at a lower pace than we had earlier expected. Secondly, in Denmark, our efforts to turn around the business have not yet delivered.

The profitability is still developing in the wrong direction. Thirdly, we have the acquisitions, which are driving volume, they are driving net sales growth, and also having a positive EBIT contribution, which we then expect to grow in the following years as the synergies start to materialize.

In Belarus, we've grown by 4% in volumes, and with the help of our strong local demand and our net revenue management actions, both net sales and EBIT are growing by approximately 20%. Then turning to look at some of the key performance indicators for the year-to-date: The equity ratio still very strong at 52.9%.

It is somewhat lower than last year due to the investments we've been doing, not only the acquisitions, but also the operational investments. The operational investments are roughly at last year's level, and we've continued to strengthen our operational capabilities.

The largest investments in this period go to Iisalmi and Lithuania, where the high-bay warehouses is being built. Earnings per share is up to €2.33.

Headcount is growing due to the acquisitions. Operating cash flow remains strong, and I should note that on operating cash flow, we've now made an update to our estimate as to how much dividends we can pay from Belarus to the group.

As there are limitations as to the dividend payments from Belarus. This year, we were only able to pay dividends locally in Belarus, and we'll not be able to repatriate them to Finland under the current restrictions.

Management still expects that this will not have an impact on Olvi's ability to pay dividends. Lastly, our work on sustainability has earned us multiple awards, nominations, and mentions, including very good results from Walk the Talk survey in Finland, which shows that our sustainability actions very much correspond to what we've said and set ourselves as targets.

We've had success in Bosnia and Herzegovina, both in the Young Energy Europe competition and the SDG Business Pioneers Awards. Lastly, but not least, our A.

Le Coq factory in Estonia was awarded the Estonia's Most Responsible Factory of the year 2026. Now handing over back to Patrik to talk about the outlook.

Patrik Lundell

Great. Indeed, near-term outlook: We referenced the change that we communicated last week and the negative profit warning that we had to issue.

We hope you have captured the key items that led us to do this, and I'll just paraphrase them one more time. We are growing organically, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, and, unfortunately, we don't expect the market to do a massive positive turnaround by the end of the year.

This brings our full-year expectations down, but in that market, we are performing well and holding strong. Then the second point is Denmark.

Our efforts are continuing. We have done a lot in terms of improving our operations, our quality, making sure we look after the brands that we have and driving growth in those.

We're now ready to take on board further volume, either supporting our own markets in Sweden and Norway, the new markets we have there, production for these markets, or then even broader in Europe. We're really looking to unlock the opportunities of Denmark as we had originally planned.

Then the cost pressure: The cost pressure is significant on our business and on our industries overall. We're happy that we've taken the right initiatives to protect our gross margins, but the results are clearly impacted by that.

Now then, concluding by referring again to our choices. I think the brand performance, the gross margin in itself, speaks a clear language.

We've been able to retain our shares, even grown our shares in several categories. We're delivering.

Some of you may recall this slide. At the bottom there, you have three categories.

This is what we intended to focus on this year: so driving growth, and especially in non-alco. We are doing that.

Our non-alco growth has accelerated. We've expanded our reach, with these new acquisitions, we've entered four new countries.

We're now servicing locally twice as many local consumers as we did at the end of 2025. Then on the development side, we continue in our efforts in net revenue management and data utilization.

We're seeing results in Belarus already. We're working on the integrations.

We want to grow as people. We want to make sure we invest in education internally as well to retain and develop the talent we have.

On the efficiency side, I can't underemphasize the importance of efficiencies in the way in which we use our assets, the way in which we improve our operations, and how we make sure that we have solid cost control. With that in mind, for the next few months of this year, we intend to close the integration work, complete that so that next year we can be in full swing.

We seek further synergies and efficiencies via even closer collaboration across the group and our markets. We remain confident in the viability of our proposition and our ability to deliver solid, profitable growth also in the long term.

Thank you. Now we move over to the questions part.

Please, in the room.

Maria Wikström

Yes, thank you. This is Maria Wikström from SEB.

Just needed to come back to the new outlook. Given that after the first nine months, your EBIT is €70 million, and that compares to last year of 65.7.

Roughly, you are €4 million ahead of last year after the first nine months. Now you are guiding an adjusted EBIT between 80 to 84 compared to roughly about 82 that you made last year.

Patrik Lundell

Yeah.

Maria Wikström

In my books, this implies that you see weakening trends for Q4. Can you elaborate why is that?

Patrik Lundell

Yeah. Thank you for the question.

I'm glad you asked, because I want to correct the impression: We're not suggesting weakening trends. What we have seen already materializing in Q3, which is lesser demand, we expect to carry on through the balance of the year.

We're not suggesting that it's getting worse; we're just saying we're not expecting a massive improvement. That really brings down our full-year expectations.

We see a softer market. Really, when you're talking and referring to EBIT, I think even more so we need to bear in mind the cost impact of the geopolitical uncertainty continuing and even potentially escalating.

Then the Denmark situation: Unfortunately, the progress has not been in the positive direction. These are the three changes versus our last guidance that makes us more cautious as to our expectations for the full year.

Anything I should add to that, Juha?

Juha Kauppinen

No, I think that's complete.

Patrik Lundell

Thanks.

Maria Wikström

I think my follow-up questions is exactly on the topics that you already touched, but more specifically. Now when we talk about the cost inflation, can we talk about it more specifically?

What are you seeing what comes to the grain prices? What comes to the price of aluminium?

Are there other cost items that we should take into account that you currently see coming up?

Patrik Lundell

I think it's a great question, and one that we've been discussing, as well, to what extent we can provide without being in a territory of anti-competitiveness, to what extent we can provide further clarity on that, because clearly that's a key driver. I can say that the impact is in the millions.

Where is it coming from? It's predominantly logistics, driven by the oil price, because we're transporting our products over distances.

That's a big driver. Then the oil price also impacts PET plastic, so that's where we see raw material or packaging material implications.

Then the Hormuz situation, the Iran war, is actually blocking parts of global aluminum production and can production, there will be a spillover on cans, as well, from that. Those are maybe the three biggest moving items.

Then broadly, if you think about just oil price in itself, you need machinery to get also the grains out of the ground, it has a broad impact beyond these three. These are the three major ones that we see being directly impacted by the geopolitical situation.

Then

Maria Wikström

I had a question on the Danish business. I think you said in the report that you are also looking for a structural options to improve the profitability of the business.

Can you give a bit color what do you refer with these structural options?

Patrik Lundell

Thank you. Another great question.

I think, indeed, in Denmark, if we zoom in on the third quarter only, we're having a volume impact still from the private label business that we don't have today. Today we're running a pure branded business with our own brands.

Performance in Denmark is also promotionally driven. It's a tough market, and we have formidable competitors there not trying to help us.

We are running a factory that's half empty. We have subscale volumes for the scale of our factory.

We've put our own operations in shape so that we can take on board further volume, be it then to support within our group production. That's also a reference here on the slide when it comes to asset utilization, how much we look at leveraging our assets beyond their domestic borders to support the Swedish business, the Norwegian business, or then, as I mentioned, acting as a co-manufacturer for a third-party operator, just simply using our asset to produce volume.

Those are some of the structural things that we're thinking about in our playbook of options.

Maria Wikström

Then I would like to ask about your novelties, how they have continued to performed over the quarter? I think you were quite happy about the recent launches during the Q2.

See that you are still smiling, but can you give a bit of color if those launches have they proven to be successful in the further time ahead, as well, or how should we think about it?

Patrik Lundell

Yes, I am smiling, you must read into that. You're probably referring to our new soft drink in Finland, and I'm happy to say that we continue to take share in the soft drinks category, which is a highly competitive one.

We've, of course, entered with great flavors that have been well-received by consumers in the market, and brand resonates. We're very pleased with the launch indeed.

Of course, there are new things to come. I very much look forward to our full-year report and sharing some news about what kind of products we have brought to market, not only in Finland, but across the group.

This is really an enabler for us also in the future to deliver value growth for our shareholders, and, ultimately, for the consumers. That's why we're here.

Then

Maria Wikström

finally, I think it's probably me and my colleagues who are kind of wanting to get a bit more color, should the cash that is currently sitting in the Belarusian accounts, should we take it into account in Olvi's net debt calculations or not? Then my question is that, is there any possibility for you to actually lobby or somehow try to push for the Belarusian politicians to take an action where you could actually repatriate this money?

Or is it pretty much you are just holding back, and waiting for the news to come, whenever they come? We,

Patrik Lundell

as a culture, we're struggling to just sit on our hands and wait, we're very active, engaging, and running our business best we can in a very complex situation. I can't possibly give confidence on the future in terms of what decisions might be taken by the legislators there.

What I can say is that we have full confidence in our own leadership team. As our CEO there is Lithuanian, has been with the group already for a long time, running the business according to our values and delivering good growth.

Our cash is trapped for the moment. As the limitations that are in place were introduced for '24 and '25, and then extended to '26.

We don't see it as a permanent thing, but I don't want to give a guess on when things will change. I heard someone say that every day we're closer to a resolution, but I don't know how far away we are.

Maria Wikström

Thank you. I had no further questions.

Patrik Lundell

Thank you.

Janna Viisterä

Okay. Then we could take some questions that we have gotten online.

Let's start. There are quite a few questions about Denmark.

First, there is that, could you give us a rough indication of the current magnitude of the losses, and also the negative impact on the organic growth during Q3, and how much they have increased year-on-year?

Patrik Lundell

Maybe I'll start, and then we see if Juha has further details to complement. Can you repeat again the package?

Volume

Janna Viisterä

and— The losses, rough indication about it.

Patrik Lundell

Good. Clear.

Thank you. What is publicly available is the information on how we performed in the calendar year of 2025.

I invite you to go and find that data. Unfortunately, I can't confirm an improvement on that, rather the opposite.

That's what I can say about the economic performance in the market. It is really structural in terms of volume.

This is a volumes business, and it's expensive to run factories at subscale in terms of the volume. We have effectivized our operations so that we're ready to take on board more volume, and sell it and deliver it across the region, really, not only looking at Denmark.

Was there a part of the question I feel like I'm forgetting?

Janna Viisterä

No, it was mainly about

Patrik Lundell

the

Janna Viisterä

magnitude. Then maybe continuing with the same theme about Denmark: In the comparisons in terms of the operational and capacity challenges, is there some easement coming going forward, or will the earnings continue to decline year-on-year?

Patrik Lundell

Yeah. As I said, of course, we have a long list of initiatives in place, and, unfortunately, they haven't yet materialized into improving profits.

We're looking for volume for our domestic markets, producing in Denmark for domestic, our own intergroup markets, and also seeking locally and in the Scandinavian territories across Sweden and Norway new business. Then the third aspect is this co-manufacturing for third-party interests.

Is there something you'd like to add to that, or was it maybe—

Juha Kauppinen

No, I don't think we can go into the details of the absolute numbers in Denmark. Suffice it to say that it is a significant impact on the organic figures.

As we're pointing out, it is a challenge yet to be resolved.

Patrik Lundell

Yeah. Thanks, Juha.

Janna Viisterä

Thank you. Then one more about Denmark: When do you expect it to turn around?

Also, are you currently losing shelf space with Jolly Cola?

Patrik Lundell

Jolly Cola, specifically. We have, of course, Jolly as our local soft drinks brand there.

The market is very promotionally driven, I wouldn't have the exact data from last week or the last month even as to how much our promo pressure has been there and thereby our presence in store. Reading on the numbers, I think we're going a bit lighter on the promo pressure than we did last year.

Janna Viisterä

Okay. Then about the cost pressure and prices: How do you see your ability to transfer higher energy costs into your prices?

Patrik Lundell

This is the challenge in a competitive market when you have big operators who are keen to also fill their factories. I'd rather refer to the performance that we have demonstrated.

We've been able to protect our gross margins, which is a signal of our ability to, on one hand, take pricing, on the other hand, manage our pack-price architecture, which is critical, and a third part, which really has been a tremendous generator of improvement, is the efficiency part in terms of how we run our factories. There's a lot of stuff we can do internally as well as with our portfolio, and then leveraging the pricing part as well in terms of price increases.

Juha Kauppinen

Maybe just adding to that, I think the best reference point is to look at our gross margins, which on a percentage level are relatively stable and at the same level as last year, which is an indication of how much of the direct cost pressure we've been able to mitigate, not only with the actions you mentioned, but also then, of course, the product development, our own brands, and so on.

Patrik Lundell

Yep. Good addition.

Thanks, Juha.

Janna Viisterä

Yes. A little bit continuing on the theme: What kind of price increases are you planning to take place from beginning of 2027?

Can they compensate for the cost inflation seen currently?

Patrik Lundell

That's something I will not disclose, for competitive reasons.

Janna Viisterä

Thank you. Then there's still about the even though that was discussed in the presentation, but the profit warning: You opened the reasons behind it, but where was the deviation to your previous expectations the most meaningful?

Was it mainly driven by Denmark, weak demand in Finland, or the geopolitical cost pressures?

Patrik Lundell

Yeah. If you want to rank them, I think the market softness is one critical part, as we've mentioned.

Indeed, the market wasn't supported by weather. We had an average summer at best.

That's one that didn't come in to support growth. We don't see that trend in terms of increased consumer spending kicking in quite yet.

Those that impacted our kind of balance-of-year estimates. Then the costs are there, and indeed Denmark is going in the wrong direction still, but we intend to rectify that.

Janna Viisterä

Thank you. Then there's a question about dividend restrictions in Belarus: Are they also valid in Bosnia?

Could Bosnia and Herzegovina, and could you finance the business by the cash flow coming from Belarus?

Patrik Lundell

Maybe Juha wants to elaborate, but, indeed, we shouldn't mix these two things. Yes, the dividends are restricted in Belarus.

At the same time, I guess the question relates to the fact that Leda is a minority stakeholder in Bosnia. That's not a channel for dividends necessarily; it's more of a ownership and financing perspective.

Juha Kauppinen

Yeah. Just to be clear, there are no restrictions directly impacting Serbia or Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Yeah. And— One more detail that I think we need to be clear on is that the current restrictions in the distribution of dividends from Belarus, they are in effect until the end of this year.

That is what we know. For next year, we don't know.

Janna Viisterä

Thank you. Then the last theme of questions is the new company acquisitions.

How are the integrations going? Do you see a risk of becoming a subscale in some of these areas as well?

Patrik Lundell

Subscale in which areas?

Janna Viisterä

In these areas, I think geographically.

Patrik Lundell

Okay. Referring to volume challenge.

The integrations are progressing according to plan, the technical integration has gone really well, in some cases even faster than expected. As you may recall, the Värska integration in itself, or the acquisition, was delayed, it only closed in end of June, allowing us to then integrate it or include the numbers from July onwards.

That's working well, and we're confident that we can conclude all the integrations by the end of the year, because some of them have already been concluded, which allows us then to focus on growth in the markets. We should also think about the nature of the business we acquired.

In Värska, we bought a healthy beverage water company. In Sweden and Norway, it's a distribution business, existing business that we acquired.

There's no factories there. Then in Bosnia, it's a factory that we've already started complementing with our own products, we have local production of energy drinks and some of our beers.

We're going to use that as a production hub, not only for the Bosnian and Serbian markets, but more broadly for the Balkans and across the Mediterranean.

Juha Kauppinen

Maybe just to rephrase on a bit what you said, what I hear from the question is that there's a concern that we have been subscale in Denmark, which has been a challenge. Now in Denmark, the challenge is especially comes from the production of other subcontracting to other players in the market, whereas the acquired entities we've acquired this year, they have strong brands and they are focused on a different business model.

Therefore, they are in our own hands, to say. We have strong brands like Värska that we have now acquired.

Patrik Lundell

Good build. Thank you, Juha.

Janna Viisterä

Thank you. Then the last question: How much EBIT do you expect from the M&As for the full year?

Patrik Lundell

We are not disclosing that number.

Juha Kauppinen

No, we have reported the actual EBIT contribution and will continue to do that for the full year. We will show that number after the year-end.

Janna Viisterä

Thank you. That's all questions.

Patrik Lundell

Thank you very much. Thanks for joining us.

Look forward to seeing you when we conclude the year. Bye.