Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation

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Q4 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 16, 2026

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Semtech Corporation's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following our prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mitch Haws, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Semtech.

Please go ahead.

Mitch Haws

Thank you, and welcome to Semtech's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 financial results conference call. Participants on today's conference call are Hong Hou, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mark Lin, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, I would like to highlight upcoming investor events, including the Optical Fiber Communication Conference starting tomorrow, and the ROTH Technology Conference on March 23rd. Today, after market close, we released our unaudited results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026, which are posted along with our earnings call presentation to our Investor Relations website at investors.semtech.com.

Today's call will include various remarks about future expectations, plans, and prospects, which comprise forward-looking statements. Please refer to today's press release and see slide two of the earnings presentation, as well as the Risk Factors section of our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, for a number of risk factors that could cause our actual results and events to differ materially from those anticipated or projected on today's call.

You should consider these risk factors in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. We will refer primarily to non-GAAP financial measures during today's call.

We will also be referring to results for our fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 unless otherwise noted. Please see today's press release and slide three of the earnings presentation for information regarding notes on our non-GAAP financial presentation.

The press release and earnings presentation also include reconciliations of our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. With that, I will turn the call over to Hong.

Hong Hou

Thank you, Mitch. Good afternoon to all of you joining today.

Semtech closed fiscal year 2026 with significant momentum, achieving a record $1.05 billion in net sales, a milestone that reflects the progress we have made and the trajectory we believe lies ahead. We drove strong sequential and year-over-year revenue and earnings growth, advanced our data center roadmap to capture compelling design-win opportunities, and continue to optimize our product portfolio, all while executing on the R&D and expansion initiatives we believe position Semtech for an exciting next chapter.

Looking at the Q4, net sales were $274.4 million, up 3% sequentially and up 9% year-over-year. For the year, revenues were $1.05 billion, representing annual growth of 15%, driven by continued strength in our data center and LoRa portfolios.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share were 44 cents, up 10% year-over-year. For fiscal year 2026, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.71, growth of 94% over the prior year.

In addition to delivering strong revenue and earnings growth, portfolio optimization remains a key focus of execution. As announced earlier this month, we acquired HyPho Corporation, which represents an important strategic building block for Semtech.

HyPho is a California-based manufacturer of high-efficiency, indium phosphide-based optoelectronic devices, including gain chips and CW laser chips that are critical components in the optical transceivers powering today's data centers. Put simply, HyPho makes the light-emitting building blocks that sit at the heart of high-speed optical interconnects.

The strategic rationale is straightforward: as data center architectures evolve to 1.6T and 3.2T, the complexity of optical interconnects increases dramatically. By bringing HyPho's proven indium phosphide laser technology together with Semtech's industry-leading TIAs and laser drivers, we can co-develop and co-optimize performance across the laser, modulator, and driver interface, and increase Semtech's content opportunity from high single-digit dollars in an 800-gig module to about $80 in a 3.2T module.

We believe this combination will result in a more integrated, more efficient chipset, one that reduces system power consumption and gives hyperscalers a differentiated solution for high-bandwidth optical transceiver modules. We have developed a comprehensive investment plan for the Alhambra, California facility to expand domestic capacity and accelerate product development.

Integration of HyPho into Semtech's operations is underway, with the transaction expected to be accretive to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share within the first year. We are genuinely excited about the people and technology joining Semtech, and we see significant untapped potential for high-efficiency lasers in different interconnect applications.

Finally, we continue to make progress on the divestiture of the cellular module business, and we are increasingly encouraged by the level of interest and engagement. We remain confident this business represents a compelling opportunity for the right buyer, and we remain focused on bringing this process to a successful conclusion.

Now let me move to a discussion of our end markets. For Q4, infrastructure net sales were $86.3 million, up 11% sequentially and up 25% year-over-year, strongly supported by our data center business.

For fiscal 2026, infrastructure net sales were $310 million, growth of 27% over the prior year. For Q4, net sales of data center were a record $63 million, up 12% sequentially and up 26% year-over-year, benefiting from strong demand for our broad portfolio, including our market-leading FiberEdge ICs, whose net sales set another record.

In Q4, we also started shipping into LPO transceivers, with revenues in line with the outlook we provided on the last quarter's earnings call. For year 2026, our data center revenues were a record $223 million, representing an annual growth of 58%.

Our optical and copper product lines are firmly established with hyperscalers as a differentiated and high-performance offering. Power efficiency has become one of the defining constraints of the modern AI infrastructure.

As hyperscalers measure data center capacity in megawatts, the ability to move data faster while consuming less power at the networking layer is no longer just a differentiator, it's an enabler. Our analog solutions address this directly, enabling operators to scale next-generation architectures at 800-gig, 1.6T, and eventually 3.2T.

Demand for our 800-gig TIA solutions remains strong and broad-based, with increasing momentum throughout 2026. At 1.6T, we are engaged across a wide range of transceiver programs, and expect volume ramps to build as hyperscalers roll out their new XPU and switch platforms using reduced-power 1.6T transceivers throughout the year.

On LPO, design wins with several leading U.S. hyperscalers validated our TIA and driver solutions in 800-gig transceivers.

We are very excited to be a member of the new XPO MSA to define specifications and enable high-bandwidth, high-density, and low-power switches. By combining with low-loss copper interconnects such as flyover wires or linear-redrive on PCB traces, some hyperscalers are becoming increasingly bullish on 1.6T LPO instead of using LROs for the first layer of the scale-up fabrics.

We continue to expand our LPO IC portfolio, with 1.6T LPO drivers and TIAs expected to come to market this year. In supporting further proliferation of low-power linear optics, Semtech, along with other industry leaders, are developing NPO, or near-package optics, MSA for low-power, high-density, and high-bandwidth solutions.

Successful deployment of 800-gig LPO transceivers gives hyperscalers confidence in NPO as the next evolution of the optical solutions. We are excited by the increased content available to Semtech in NPO deployments.

Active copper cable, or ACC, continues to gain significant traction. Customers evaluating ACCs against incumbent solutions are seeing compelling performance advantage in the form of robust link margin and transformative power savings versus DSP-based solutions.

Alongside our cable solutions, customers are increasingly evaluating our CopperEdge linear equalizers for onboard integration to enhance signal integrity across high-speed links, an opportunity we are confident will convert into design wins over the coming quarters. One of these use cases is active backplane using CopperEdge ICs, which our cable partners will demonstrate at OFC.

Finally, we co-authored the ACC MSA, helping establish ACC technology as a leading solution for low-power and high-performance copper links. Members of the MSA span IC, XPU, and cable suppliers, all in partnership with major hyperscalers.

We believe the ACC MSA accelerates the adoption curve for the entire industry. By establishing common specifications, we reduce fragmentation, lower deployment risk for hyperscalers, and make it easier for the ecosystem to develop around ACC as a standard, not just a proprietary solution.

That is good for customers, it's good for Semtech. We look forward to seeing many of you at OFC starting tomorrow.

This year, we are showing live demos across several of our key product areas. They tell a clear story about where Semtech is positioned in the data center interconnect market.

Starting with copper, we are demonstrating 1.6T ACCs running live traffic to Nvidia's 224-gig SerDes. We are also showing next-generation 448-gig per channel CopperEdge chips.

As AI clusters scale, the demand for low-power and low-latency copper interconnects continues to grow, and we think we are very well positioned to lead the market. On the optical side, we'll be demonstrating Nvidia's 1.6T DR8 transceivers powered by Semtech's TIAs and laser drivers running live in an Nvidia switch platform.

We'll also be demonstrating a 100T Ethernet switch running live traffic over both single-mode and multimode fibers supporting FRO, LRO, and LPO configurations across the Broadcom Tomahawk 6 platform, all built on Semtech silicon. We are thrilled to demonstrate the breadth of our optical portfolio across a multi-vendor ecosystem.

We'll also be demonstrating our next-generation 448-gig per channel modulator drivers and TIAs, addressing increasing bandwidth demand to support future-generation AI workloads. We're also showcasing our indium phosphide CW laser and gain chip technology for tunable laser applications with outstanding power efficiency, over-temperature performance, and a far-field beam profile, products from our HyPho acquisition.

Across copper and optical, and both near-term and next-generation, OFC gives us a tremendous opportunity to show Semtech's position across the full hyperscale interconnect stack. We believe we are positioned for multi-year growth opportunities supported by our expanded portfolio.

We expect to start shipping CopperEdge for the 1.6T ACC hyperscaler deployment this quarter, with demand accelerating throughout the year. We also expect FiberEdge design wins for 1.6T transceivers, with a significant ramp in the second half of the year.

Additional revenue growth drivers in the near future are expected from additional design wins for ACC at other hyperscalers, linear equalizers onboard across multiple customers, gain chips and CW lasers in transceivers, and our market-leading 400-gig FiberEdge and CopperEdge products for 3.2T interconnect solutions. Given the breadth of our data center portfolio and design-in traction across an expanding set of customers, we expect data center year-over-year revenue growth this fiscal year to exceed 50%.

Now moving to our high-end consumer end market. Net sales for Q4 were $36.6 million, down 13% sequentially and up 3% year-over-year.

Net sales for fiscal year 2026 were $155.1 million, up 5% year-over-year, driven by both our TVS and PerSe product portfolios. Our consumer TVS revenue continues to ramp well ahead of handset volume growth, and we expect another year of revenue and design-win momentum.

We expect consumer TVS revenues to increase next quarter, a function of improved seasonality and share gains at the leading handset manufacturers. In addition, PerSe continues to broaden its design-win footprint, with adoption expanding across smart glasses and smartphone platforms, in supporting both current and upcoming product launches.

The integration of the force-sensing portfolio is progressing well, with initial product shipments already underway. Customer engagements and design-win activities continue to build, and we are increasingly optimistic about the cross-selling opportunities this combination unlocks across our combined customer base.

Moving to our industrial end market. Q4 industrial net sales were $151 million, up 3% sequentially and year-over-year, with another solid quarter for LoRa.

For the full year, industrial revenue was $584 million, 13% growth over the prior year. LoRa-enabled net sales were $39.6 million, in line with Q3 and up 7% year-over-year, supported by continued expansion across several application verticals such as smart utilities, smart building, smart city, and asset management.

For the full year, LoRa revenues were $156 million, representing full-year growth of 34%. We had a strong presence at the CES this year, showcasing new LoRa application use cases.

Four themes highlighted in our presence: edge AI integration, multiprotocol connectivity, global network expansion, and the convergence of industrial and consumer IoT, together reflecting a technology that is broadening its reach across a growing range of markets. Edge AI emerged as another defining trend.

As sensors increasingly process data locally for latency, privacy, and bandwidth reasons, our collaboration with an ecosystem partner demonstrated how LoRaWAN and edge AI work together to enable predictive maintenance in industrial environments. Demand for a solution that combines LoRa with multiprotocol flexibility is accelerating.

In order to facilitate LoRa+ adoption, we recently signed an agreement with a technology partner to support software development to activate and support other protocols. We are rolling out Z-Wave first, with Zigbee and Thread and Matter to follow.

We expect beta units will be available to deployment partners in Q2 of this year as a multiprotocol smart home and security solutions. The market's move toward a single-SKU solution is exactly what LoRa+ is designed to address, reducing complexity for customers while expanding our addressable markets.

Customers who purchase our LoRa+ transceivers now get royalty-free access to an SDK and development tools, silicon and software together from a single source. Additionally, Amazon and Ring announced a new line of LoRa-powered sensors spanning security, safety, and home control applications, all operating on Amazon Sidewalk.

Ring plans to launch these products in the U.S. in March, followed by expansion across Canada, Mexico, Europe, Australia, and Japan.

This demonstrates LoRa's readiness for mass-market consumer adoption at Amazon scale, a significant evolution from its industrial and commercial roots. The ecosystem continues to scale, now spanning over 125 million LoRaWAN connected devices across 70 countries, well beyond early adoption and into mainstream deployment.

With LoRa technology, we now have established three pillars of low-power connectivity platforms: LoRaWAN, LoRa+ with multiple protocols, and Amazon Sidewalk. With these growth vectors, we believe LoRa's long-term growth rate to be approximately 20% and quarterly sales to range from $35 to $45 million.

Our IoT Systems and Connectivity business recorded Q4 net sales of $89.9 million, up 2% sequentially and down 3% year-over-year. For fiscal 2026, revenues were $354 million, up 9% compared to last year.

We continue to bring products to market that address gaps in how industrial customers connect remote infrastructure. In Q4, we launched the AirLink RX400 and EX400, the industry's first rugged 5G RedCap routers purposely built for mission-critical industrial deployments.

These routers deliver 5G performance with less than 1 watt of the idle power, roughly one-tenth of the draw of standard 5G equipment, making solar and battery-backed deployments practical for the first time. This allows our utility, oil and gas, and transportation customers to operate in remote locations where grid power is not always available.

Customer engagement at DistribuTECH in February reinforced our conviction that this product is well-timed to address a real market need. Looking back on fiscal 2026, I'm proud of what the team had accomplished.

We delivered strong revenue and earnings growth through disciplined execution, a differentiated portfolio, and a relentless focus on the customers and the markets where Semtech can win. This was not just a strong year financially, it was a year in which we fundamentally strengthened Semtech's foundation.

Looking at where we stand today, I'm more confident than ever in our positioning. The AI data center buildout is one of the most significant infrastructure investments in a generation, and we believe Semtech is well positioned with a broad, purpose-built portfolio of solutions designed for 1.6T and 3.2T era.

We believe our continued investment in our core assets through R&D and acquisitions helps ensure we are not just keeping pace with the next-generation technology, we are helping to define it. Importantly, we now have the financial flexibility to diligently evaluate and pursue the strategic investments that will accelerate our growth.

We enter fiscal 2027 with momentum, with clarity of purpose, and with a stronger Semtech than we have had in years. I want to thank our employees, our customers, and our shareholders for their continued confidence in us.

We're just getting started, and the opportunities ahead have never been more compelling. Our key focuses for 2027 fiscal year include: one, accelerating business growth by supporting customer ramps with sufficient availability and strong operational metrics as we compete in a capacity-constrained environment; two, intensify R&D investment to add new growth drivers and solution differentiation by maintaining diligent governance of R&D investment with a goal of driving customer wins and delivering strong financial returns; three, transforming Semtech by strengthening our winning culture and making major progress in portfolio optimization.

With that, I will now turn the call to Mark for additional details on our financial results and our outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Mark?

Mark Lin

Thank you, Hong. For Q4, we recorded our eighth consecutive quarter of net sales growth, with record net sales of $274.4 million, above the midpoint of our outlook and up 9% year-over-year.

For the fiscal year, net sales were $1.05 billion, up 15% year-over-year. Net sales trends by end market, reportable segment, and geographic region are included in the accompanying earnings presentation.

Adjusted gross margin was 51.6%, above the midpoint of our outlook. Total semiconductor products gross margin was 61.7%, up 40 basis points sequentially and up 350 basis points year-over-year.

Total semiconductor products gross margin was above the high end of our outlook range, the result of favorable mix from our LoRa and data center portfolio. We expect gross margin contributions from new data center products from our copper and optical 1.6T portfolio ramping in the second half of this year will be accretive to both our semiconductor products and signal integrity products gross margin.

IoT Systems and Connectivity gross margin was reflective of mix-related net sales growth in cellular modules, with Q4 at 31.6%. Adjusted net operating expenses were $91.5 million, slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range.

Adjusted operating income was $50.0 million, adjusted operating margin was 18.2%, adjusted EBITDA was $57.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.9%, with all of these metrics above the midpoint of our guidance range. Reflective of capital structure changes, Semtech was in a net interest income position in Q4 at $0.1 million, which reflects a sizable change from the $11.2 million of net interest expense reported a year ago.

For fiscal year 2026, adjusted net interest expense was $11.5 million, compared to $70.6 million in fiscal year 2025. We recorded adjusted diluted earnings per share of 44 cents, above the midpoint of our guidance, and full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.71.

Operating cash flow for Q4 was $61.5 million, sequentially up 30% from $47.5 million, and up 84% from $33.5 million a year ago. Free cash flow for Q4 was $59.1 million, sequentially up 32% from $44.6 million, and up 91% from $30.9 million a year ago.

Operating cash flow and free cash flow for the standalone fourth quarter each exceeded the amounts reported for all of fiscal year 2025, driven by improvements in both our capital structure and operating performance. Strong cash flow generation has allowed us the operational flexibility to invest in R&D projects, as well as to invest strategically via tuck-ins.

The increased R&D investment in our core data center, LoRa, and sensing portfolio has yielded strong returns. The aggregate consideration for the force-sensing portfolio we acquired in October 2025 and the laser and gain chip business we acquired in March 2026 is less than the free cash flow we generated from Q4.

I believe our balancing of R&D spending along with prudent use of capital for capacity expansion and acquisitions positions us to generate meaningful long-term returns for our shareholders. We ended Q4 with a cash and cash equivalents balance of $195.2 million, and debt was $503 million, unchanged from last quarter.

Our adjusted net leverage ratio was 1.3 as of the close of Q4, down sequentially from 1.5, and down year-over-year from 2.3. Now turning to our outlook for the first quarter fiscal year 2027.

We currently expect net sales of $283 million, plus or minus $5 million, up 13% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect net sales from our infrastructure end market to increase sequentially, supported by projected sequential data center growth of 12%, including initial CopperEdge production shipments supporting a hyperscaler at the tail end of the quarter.

We expect net sales from our high-end consumer end market to increase by about 9% sequentially, or about 13% year-over-year, benefiting from improved seasonal trends, market share gain in our TVS products, and contributions from the force-sensing portfolio we acquired in the fourth quarter. We expect net sales from our industrial end market to be about flat, with LoRa increases offsetting decreases in IoT Systems and Connectivity.

Based on expected product mix and net sales levels, we expect adjusted gross margin to be 52.8%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Our gross margin outlook for total semiconductor products is expected to be 60.4%, plus or minus 50 basis points, down 130 basis points sequentially, and include initial ramp costs from the HyPho acquisition.

Adjusted net operating expenses are expected to be $96.9 million, plus or minus $1 million, resulting in adjusted operating margin at the midpoint of 18.6%. Included in the higher first quarter adjusted operating expense outlook are R&D costs associated with the addition of the force-sensing business, along with increased investment in support of our growing data center portfolio, including the HyPho acquisition.

We have demonstrated strong returns on our R&D investment, and expect incremental returns from these investments. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $59.5 million, plus or minus $3 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint of 21%.

We expect adjusted interest and other expense net to be approximately half a million dollars. We expect an adjusted normalized income tax rate of 17% for all of fiscal year 2027, an increase from 15% in fiscal year 2026 due to a geographical shift in pre-tax profits.

These amounts are expected to result in adjusted diluted earnings per share of 45 cents, plus or minus 3 cents, based on a weighted average share count of 96.6 million shares.

Mitch Haws

Thank you, Mark. We can now turn the call back to the operator for the question-and-answer session.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session.

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.

You may press star two to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys.

One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you.

Our first question is from Sean O'Loughlin with TD Cowen.

Sean O'Loughlin

Hey, guys. Congrats on the solid results and continuing to execute on your strategy.

I wanted to ask a question on the HyPho acquisition. I think the strategic rationale you laid out is pretty straightforward, but wondering if you could expand on the initial applications you're targeting sounds like mostly transceiver side and then maybe more importantly, where are you for the indium phosphide-based products in the qualification or design cycles with some of your customers, and what should be our expectations for when some of that starts to fold into the model in a material way?

Yeah.

Hong Hou

Thank you, Sean, for the question. The HyPho initial product right now in production is a gain chip used in tunable lasers.

Those are the high-end lasers to support the transmission over 80 kilometers, 40 kilometers for metro and data center interconnect applications. By leveraging about four decades of laser design experience, and they have been the leading supplier for gain chips for ITLA.

This is a product already in volume production, and demand is increasing, and right now is capacity limited. This product for 2027 probably will be contributing roughly about a high-teen level of revenue, but we are adding capacity as we speak in the second week as a proud owner of this asset.

We have also demonstrated, we'll showcase tomorrow at OFC, the intensity-modulated direct drive lasers of CW lasers used in optical transceivers. These lasers are really well designed to support high conversion efficiency, for example, wall-plug efficiency at the room temperature with 42%, that is much higher than the typical about 25%.

Then over-temperature performance is outstanding, and the far-field beam profile is outstanding, so that make it much easier to couple into single-mode fiber or silicon photonics waveguide. We do not have enough capacity right now to support the industry demand.

After the announcement, you can just imagine we got multiple customers reaching in and asking for samples, we will be able to provide samples to the key customers to support evaluation and when we are building capacity to support the future growth. As for putting in the model, probably once we have a better understanding on the equipment lead time and the capacity in the future periods, we will provide more guidance on the revenue contribution from lasers, CW lasers.

Right now, we're planning to intercept at the 3.2T transceivers. Of course, it can support 1.6T transceiver as well.

Sean O'Loughlin

Great. Thanks.

Appreciate all the color there. If I could just ask a real quick follow-up maybe for Mark on that topic.

How should we be thinking about the CapEx line as you talk about those capacity expansions at Alhambra? I guess maybe Hong alluded to the answer to this question in his previous comment about understanding equipment lead times, but how everybody in the indium phosphide industry seems to be ramping capacity, and are you guys, I guess, for lack of a better term, at the back of the line there?

Hong Hou

Yeah. The CapEx intensity is moderate, and the fab already had the key capabilities.

Right now, we just need to selectively adding capacity in some areas. I know the whole industry is ramping up, and test equipment, fab equipment in high demand as well.

We will be very creative in combine with the new and used market and to look at the fab and test equipment. The intensity, I would say, of the CapEx can be easily supported with say, for example, one quarter of the free cash flow, as we have demonstrated in the past quarter.

Mark Lin

Sean, and the ramp is over multiple quarters, but I think Semtech's world-class operations team is on it. We had the planning during diligence, and the other good news is all this CapEx, I believe qualifies for Section 48D investment tax credit at 35%, and then there's some additional government grant programs that are available, especially to strengthen U.S.

semiconductor manufacturing capacity.

Sean O'Loughlin

Thanks, guys.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Tore Svanberg

Yes, thank you. Hong, Mark, congrats on the results.

My first question is on CopperEdge. As that business now starts to ramp in fiscal '27, can you give us any sense for how big that could be, maybe tens of millions of dollars?

If you can't give us the size, perhaps you could at least give us the mix between actual ACC cables versus linear equalizers.

Hong Hou

Tore, thank you for the question. We are supporting the ramp, we're getting forecast, and we're getting the materials ready, as we gave the guidance in our prepared remarks.

Towards the end of this fiscal year well, this fiscal quarter, in April timeframe, we'll start shipping to the cable manufacturers that who are the our direct customers to support direct level volume ramp in the mid of the year. Everything is on schedule.

As for the the mix between DAC and the ACC, it's still they are in the process of right now doing the rack-level testing, system validation, we will be getting better idea probably by in a month or two on the support. We're getting the long-range forecast so that we can get wafer starts in the fab and prepare the material readiness, as I indicated, that's a very key focus for our operations.

At this point, it's still too early to tell, but as for linear equalizer onboard, there are multiple customers supporting our activities and they I do believe that some of those based on the level of engagement it will be getting qualified within the coming quarters. Just on the linear equalizer, the ACC side, the MSA establishment with 11, well 12 founding members are tasked and at work already start drafting the specifications.

This is still the early stage of the ACC, and some customers experiencing the different different customers experiencing different performance. It is very important to have this MSA to draft the specification and educate the industry that what to expect with a certain level of reach and gauge and and data rate.

With the common understanding of MSA, I do believe this technology is going to be proliferated much faster. We have already seen some other hyperscalers lining up to getting their rack designed by using ACC.

Tore Svanberg

That's very helpful. Thank you.

As my follow-up and maybe more of a clarification question, you talked about LoRa growing 20% longer term, but then you talked about a $35 to $45 million quarterly run rate. You just did $40, what exactly is that $35-$45 range?

Are you expecting some volatility this year, or if you could just clarify what you meant by that. Thank you.

Hong Hou

Yeah. Thank you, Tore.

Historically, we have been seeing overall trend of LoRa revenue has been increasing, but quarter-to-quarter is a little bit bumpy due to the project-based deployment of demand. That's why we give a range of plus-minus $5 million.

You see the sliding scale is continue to go up with the center point. I feel like I have never been this excited about our LoRa strategy.

It's really with the dual-band to increase the bandwidth to address edge AI applications, with the LoRa+ to really get multiple applications in one SKU, with the software and hardware all supported by us, and with the Amazon Sidewalk in a mass market. Adding the value-added market at the mass market, really we got multiple growth drivers.

I think that's why it giving us conviction that 20% growth rate is very doable. When we can help the ecosystem to adopt a LoRa+ protocol faster, we expect the growth rate to accelerate.

Tore Svanberg

Very clear. Thank you.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.

Christopher Rolland

Hey, guys. Thank you for the question.

I guess my first one is on the indium phosphide laser acquisition. I guess first, a clarification.

This is all going to be internally manufactured materials? Just wanted to clarify that.

Secondly, if you could talk about maybe your go-to-market strategy here, and maybe even some revenue synergies with some of your other parts. Are you going to kind of bundle this with FiberEdge?

What are you going to, perhaps go direct to hyperscalers? How are you going to approach this market?

Thank you.

Hong Hou

Thank you, Chris. It's very good questions.

To answer your first question, yes, the fab we acquired is vertically integrated, namely we do the epi growth of epi wafers, we process wafers, we test it internally, and we do use the ecosystem on back-end packaging to increase the capacity. That part, we are doing really well.

This lasers, because it's involved in regrowth process, we do internally, that's how we are able to get superior performance in conversion efficiency and over-temperature performance. As for your second question, go-to-market strategy, you are absolutely right.

We know that 100-gig per lane in transition to 200-gig per lane that already put so much stress to the ecosystem. We're really challenging the device designers with the performance margin.

When we evolve the data rate to 400-gig per lane, there really not a whole lot of margin to give out. The co-development and co-optimize is so key in order to get the best electronic component with the best optoelectronic component.

Now we own two sides of the equation, we'll be able to mix and match to provide the best integrated solution. When we have that, we will provide the chipset with a reference design to our customer base.

This way will be helped to accelerate the time to market for them, and in return, we make our components more sticky, right? It use this kind of electronic component like a TIA, a laser driver, modulator driver, using our optical component, you will pretty much get a guarantee to work to deliver 400-gig performance.

That's why we're saying we anticipate the major cut-in point is 3.2T transceiver modules. It could be earlier than that.

Christopher Rolland

That's great. That's a fantastic strategy.

One question I get from investors is around the eventuality of CPO, particularly for scale-up. Jensen here at GTC was talking a little bit about the coexistence of both copper and optical in the rack.

Some pushback I get from investors is around the role of copper the closer that optical moves to the ASIC. Obviously, you're expanding your market with lasers here into the CPO world, but perhaps you could also address that kind of pushback on copper, where you see copper playing a role not only in the next two years, but all the way through 2030, for example, even as you move CPO to the ASIC.

Hong Hou

Great. Thank you, Chris.

I listened to Jensen's call as well. Basically, what I was trying to say over the last year, but he clarified it so well.

Copper scale-up is always going to be there, and CPO scale-up is only making more sense in a multi-rack systems. For example, he was talking about Oberon NVL576 across eight racks.

That way, because you're using active copper cable, it's very hard to get eight racks all point-to-point interconnected. You use the first opportunity the signal out of the XPU to convert into optical.

Optical not only be able to interconnect within rack, but can also interconnect between racks. The same thing for the Kyber platform.

It was talking about NVL 1152, that's also an eight-rack system on the NVL 144. That the CPO scale-up makes sense.

In general, I think the copper scale-up is going to be the mainstream, is going to be primarily used for within a rack. The CPO scale-up is going to be used in multiple racks.

Don't put a terminal value on the copper yet. The industry also are formulating a NPO, near-package optics, as a complement to CPO.

This way, CPO is a one-company thing, right? NPO can define a specification to have specific geometry, layout the IO pinout, and keep-out zone to leverage the entire ecosystem's innovation to make it more scalable, more affordable.

When in a CPO, we may not have much content in there except for lasers, but in NPO, we will be all over the place with the laser drivers and TIAs and lasers and even silicon photonics modulator, as I mentioned, that is a very natural expansion of our portfolio by internal development.

Christopher Rolland

Thanks.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Tristan Gerra with Robert W. Baird.

Tristan Gerra

Hi, good afternoon. You've talked about the rising interest from hyperscalers about LPOs.

Could you talk about the recent Arista XPO announcement and what that does to the LPO ecosystem and any way to quantify what the ramp is going to look like medium term and when you expect a big inflection point in LPO revenue?

Hong Hou

Great. Thank you, Tristan.

XPO, Arista just released that MSA. We are a very active member of the MSA.

XPO defined a high-density, low-power, and provide high-reliability MSA for front-panel switch, for example, to keep the same Radix, but they will be able to collapse the form factor from essentially 4RU into 1 without giving out any capacity. It basically removes the packaging overhead because of liquid cooling is available.

They can develop the cold plate so that it getting between the optical transceivers. That is just great, and really that build upon the confidence on LPO, and build upon the innovation from the entire ecosystem with multiple module manufacturers.

NPO, on the other hand, is a little bit more involved because that's involved the development of common specification on say geometry, keep-out zone, the IOs, and shoreline configurations. Essentially, NPO is ways XPO onboard.

XPO is just high-density package on the front panel of the box. In both configurations, we're going to be having a lot of content in there, again, the lasers and the modulator drivers, the modulator itself, and TIAs, and so we welcome this type of MSA.

It's just really going into our direction.

Tristan Gerra

That's great color. Then for my follow-up, you've mentioned in the past some ACC opportunities onboard.

Could you provide maybe a little bit more feedback on what that is, what exactly is the use case for that, and how meaningful that could get over time?

Hong Hou

The CopperEdge linear equalizer onboard our customers are defining five, six different use cases in all to utilize the redrive capability to extend the link and improve the link budget. It can be on the switch, can be on the merchant GPU board, can be on the ASIC board of hyperscalers.

It can also be on the backplane, in an active backplane by our cable partners.

Tristan Gerra

Great. Thank you very much.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

Robert Mertens

Hi, this is Robert on for Quinn here. Congrats on the quarter.

You've been active in doing acquisitions and have expressed intent to increase R&D with some of your capital up until this point, but any updates on potential divestitures? Last we heard, I think, ongoing, and roughly in the third or fourth inning.

Any update on that process would be great.

Hong Hou

Robert. Thanks for calling in.

I'm not really good at sports analogies, but I think that we're making good progress. I'm optimistic in a good conclusion.

At this point, I'd say that maybe incremental from last quarter, the interested parties are spending some dollars on external consultants, financial due diligence and on legal costs. We're at that stage, and when there's additional kind of skin in the game, I think that does point towards a successful conclusion of the cellular modules divestiture in the near term.

Robert Mertens

Thanks. Just as a follow-up, it sounds like there are many tailwinds coming across for LPO as well as copper, and I think last we kind of heard them ramping kind of in a similar timeframe this year.

Can you just refresh that for us, as it sounds like ACCs could be ramping a little earlier now? Then which do you see as the larger revenue opportunity over kind of the coming 12 months?

Hong Hou

Robert. We give the timeline: ACC ramp, it's on time, on schedule, and then the 1.6T FiberEdge product.

Then beyond that, as I said, could be the ACC with other hyperscalers, linear equalizer onboard, and lasers, and 400-gig. We like them all, and at this point, it is too early to call which one is the bigger opportunity, but we like them all, and all going to be contributing pretty significant ways.

Robert Mertens

Sounds great. Thanks, guys.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Moore

Great, thank you. You talked about 1.6T starting to grow in your TIA business and other places.

Can you talk about the line of sight that you have to 800 still growing? I assume it's still growing for now, and you're layering in the higher speeds on top of it.

How long will that persist, and at what point does it start transitioning over more?

Hong Hou

That's right. Joe, we did mention in the prepared remarks, the 800-gig is a foundation.

The growth is strong, demand is strong and broad-based. That's the given, that's goes very strong at least throughout the FY '27.

As for the industry rolling out new XPUs and then all the IOs goes to 200-gig, they're going to be evolving into 1.6T, and in a low-power 1.6T optics, we are actually very well positioned, even better than 800-gig.

Joseph Moore

Great. Thank you.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.

Craig Ellis

Thanks for sneaking me in, and guys, congratulations on both the execution and a really strategic-looking acquisition. Hong, I think near the end of your prepared remarks, you commented that you thought data center year-on-year revenue this year could be up around 50%.

One, just confirming that I heard that right, and two, can you help us understand what the biggest growth drivers are, or rank the growth drivers that you see driving that great growth?

Hong Hou

Thank you, Craig. Yes, you heard it right.

Year-over-year, we expect the data center revenue to grow 50% this year. The driver is ACC with a hyperscaler, 1.6T FiberEdge second half of the year, and then there might be even linear equalizer onboard contributing to the growth.

Craig Ellis

That's helpful. Thank you.

Then, Mark, congratulations on the strength, and you too, Hong, on the strength in semi's gross margin, and what we're seeing in signal integrity. It's really nice to see those mid-high 60s levels reattained.

The comments on accretive second-half products, are we signaling that gross margin for the segment could start with a seven handle later this year or next year, or would you still expect to be in the 60s?

Mark Lin

The new products that we introduced do have accretive gross margins, I'm very pleased with that. It's a great return on the R&D that we put into the products, and they do contribute to growing gross margins.

We still also have other products, at 800-gig, right? I'm not expecting it to be in the sevens, but firmly in this zip code.

Craig Ellis

Congratulations on where it is. Thanks, guys.

Hong Hou

Thank you,

Craig Ellis

Craig.

Operator

Our next question is from Cody Acree with Benchmark.

Cody Acree

Thanks, guys, for taking my questions. Maybe just following up on Craig's question, you didn't mention LPOs among the drivers of that 50% data center growth.

Any reason for leaving that out, and maybe can you just talk about the breadth of expansion of your engagements with ACC and LPOs over the last few months and how you expect those to progress over the course of the year?

Hong Hou

Thank you, Cody. Yes, the LPO continued to grow, and as we said, Q4 we delivered just as we give the guidance, mid-single digit, and signal the first ramp.

To continue to ramp on the LPO, but we got them in the FiberEdge product category, included in there. The LPO adoption is proliferating, and that's also build the confidence for this XPO and NPO strategy.

Then ACC is also getting more and more accepted by the industry. I mentioned that one hyperscaler start ramping mid-year, and then more hyperscalers are embracing this ACC as well.

Linear equalizer with multiple customers, the engagement has been going really strong. I do believe that we not only have growth drivers lined up for this year, and have multiple growth drivers lined up for future periods beyond FY '27.

Cody Acree

Great. Thanks for that color.

Mark, any thoughts on your OpEx trends for the year?

Mark Lin

Yeah. I'm pleased that we're able to have the flexibility to invest in the business.

Our outlook for next quarter in OpEx growth is really R&D. I believe we've demonstrated strong returns on our investment, and our investment in R&D certainly yields stronger returns than interest expense, for example.

We do remain disciplined in our R&D investments, focusing on our core data center portfolio, on LoRa, and PerSe. The two recent acquisitions do add some incremental R&D, but these are in our core portfolios.

Cody Acree

All right. Great.

Thanks, guys.

Hong Hou

Thank you. Thanks, Cody.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from Scott Searle with ROTH Capital Partners.

Scott Searle

Hey, guys. Thanks for sneaking me in under the wire.

Just real quick on LoRa, wondering if you could provide a little bit more color. In the past, China was such a big percentage of the mix.

I'm wondering how it was in the quarter and the pipeline of opportunities there where you continue to diversify away from the Chinese marketplace. As part of that, Sidewalk has cropped up from time to time as being a large opportunity.

It's been, I think, slow to date. I'm wondering if you could calibrate when we might start to see that contributing in a more meaningful fashion.

As a follow-up, just on the protection and sensing side, I think you indicated that there was a large win that kicks in in the first quarter. I'm wondering if you could just clarify that and provide any additional color.

Thanks.

Hong Hou

Thank you. LoRa right now, the growth is broad-based across multiple regions.

China certainly is a good driver, and in Europe and in North America, the growth is equally strong. It's all benefited from multiple growth drivers out there.

Sidewalk, certainly it had a little bit of false start several years ago, but at the CES in January they had over 10 product demos, all embedded with LoRa chips inside. They're going to be start deploy in March in North America, had a clear plan to proliferating into other countries.

We'll see this time, but that can be a pretty significant opportunity for Semtech. I would let Mark address the TVS question.

Yeah.

Mark Lin

TVS, we're seeing growth above, let's say, a proxy of handset volumes, unit volumes. We have a number of good design wins in TVS, and also there's a little bit of a geopolitical tailwind that we believe is sustainable over a number of quarters that's leading to our better-than-seasonal guide for Q1.

Scott Searle

Great. Thanks so much.

Nice job on the quarter.

Hong Hou

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to hand the call back over to Mitch Haws for any closing remarks.

Mitch Haws

That concludes today's call. Thanks to all of you for joining us today.

We look forward to seeing you at various investor events over the coming weeks and at OFC starting tomorrow. Thank you.

Operator

We thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.