Trevi Finanziaria Industriale S.p.A.

Trevi Finanziaria Industriale S.p.A.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 30, 2026

Operator

Good morning, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Trevi Group conference call on full-year 2025 results and business plan 2026-2029 and financing package.

As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Giuseppe Caselli, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Giuseppe Caselli

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. The results of 2025 show a solid operational performing performance.

Our recurring EBITDA is +2.2% like-for-like, with a record EBITDA margin of 13.7%. We had we had a strong improvement in group net profit: +56.7% reported and 24.4% adjusted.

We have a well-diversified backlog as at 31st December of 74- €748 million, supported by a strong order intake in 2025 of €734 million, +21.3% compared to year 2024. Our Middle East activities are not affected by the current events, and they are progressing as they should.

Regarding our business plan 2026-2029, we aim to reinforce our leadership in complex and high-value projects, basically continuing to proceed in the same path that we initiated some years ago, 4 years ago, 5 years ago. We will continue with our diversification in trying to get contracts around the world in a different geographical area with always a very discipline approach in terms of risk balanced with profits.

Soilmec division is the one that went through a long journey in terms of improving his results, and now we are focusing on new products and dedicating to a new production line to support our commercial growth. In the 2029, we expect revenues exceeding €750 million with a recurring EBITDA of €100 million.

Third element that is the new element for this year is the financing package, the net debt returning to in bonis position. This will help us to support and accelerate business plan 20- 2026-2029, will straighten will strengthen our capital structure, reducing net debt close to zero by 2029.

Then this will allow us to finally seize some potential future acquisition, niche acquisition, in our cluster of activities. In terms of 2025 results, we see that our revenues are reached the €624 million that is within the guidance that we gave, compared to the 663 in 2024.

In terms of recurring EBITDA, we reached the 85.5 compared to the 83.6 in 2024. Despite having less revenue, 5% less revenues, we have increased our EBITDA compared to the previous year of 2.2%.

The total adjusted net profit reached 19.4 million, +24.4% compared to the total adjusted net profit in 2024 that was landing at 15.6 million, that in turns was +31% compared to the previous years previous year. The free cash flow from operation reached 51.3 million, +18.7% compared to 2024, that was standing at 32.5% that 32 32.5 million in 2024.

Net debt, 187.4 compared to 199 199 roughly in 2024. The leverage ratio is standing at 2.19 compared to 2.38 in 2024.

One of the key elements of our performance is based on the fact that we have a well-diversified order intake across different geogra- geography. You can see that there is a mix between North American projects where we are extremely focused and we expect an increase in this business plan in terms of opportunities and revenue.

Middle East project is stable, reducing from the past, but stable in the plan. Of course, it will be across Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait.

Plus, of course, other part of the world like Far East, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and the like. Then of course, Italy, then Spain, and South America, Argentina, where we are focusing our activities in those opportunities that are mainly related to specific business that can support the level of profitability that we expect from a project.

In addition to that, we have seen in the first 2 months a positive momentum in commercial activities. Our order intake in the first 2 months was at 157 million, January-February, compared to 110 million that was in the first 2 months of the previous year.

We have, at end of 2025, a backlog of 734 million. In the next slide, you can see the backlog evolution that, as mentioned before, it was it is, it was at 31st December, 748 million.

The the the geography of this backlog, you can see, is split in different part of the world. We have 40% the Europe area, 18% the Middle East, 17% North America, 12% Far East, 8% Africa, and 5% South America.

This again is a proven prove of our diver- diversified diversification around the world. It has to be mentioned that by end of February, the backlog reached 837 million.

Is one of the highest, if not the highest, level of backlog that the company has never achieved. This is another positive sign that will allow us to look at the future, at 2026, in a more positive way.

Now I would like to leave the floor to our CFO, Mr. Alfiero, in order to proceed with the presentation.

Vincenzo Auciello

Thank you, Gigi, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with the slide 10, which summarizes the main highlights of Trevi Group's full-year 2025 results.

In 2025, group revenues reached €624 million, a 5.9% decrease compared to 2024. Despite the lower top line, the EBITDA increased by 2.2%, moving from €83.6 million to €85.5 million.

This improvement was primarily driven by the strong performance of the Trevi division. We also recorded a further improvement in profitability, because the EBITDA margin rose to 13.7%, reflecting our disciplined approach in awarding and executing projects with solid and healthy margins.

Let me add also that our reported and recurring EBITDA are not materially different. Extraordinary costs amount to roughly €3.5 million, demonstrating the quality and stability of our operating performance.

Moving down the P&L, the adjusted net result reached €19.4 million, compared to €15.6 million in 2024. We still refer to adjusted net profit because both 2024 and 2025 were affected by the reversal of non-monetary financial impacts related to our successful 2023 restructuring.

These effects, mainly linked to IFRS 9 accounting on debt, will phase out progressively in 2026. The difference between adjusted and reported net result, equal to €10.8 million, reflects the portion of IFRS 9 reversal absorbed in 2025.

As a result, the reported net profit was €8.6 million, a solid figure and higher than 2024. Free cash flow was also very positive, reaching €51.3 million, an improvement of €19 million year-on-year.

This confirms the progress made in cash conversion and demonstrates our ability to translate margin improvement into cash generation. Moving to slide 11, you can see the geographical breakdown of our revenues.

In 2025, Middle East remained a significant contributor, even if with lower revenue in absolute value versus 2024. However, our revenue base is well-diversified across regions, ensuring strong positioning in multiple markets and enhancing our capacity to capture new commercial opportunities.

Let's now review the performance of our two divisions, starting with Trevi. Revenues exceeded €500 million, down 5.8% from last year.

This reduction is mainly attributable to lower activity levels in Far East. As I said a few seconds ago, Middle East also registered a decline versus 2024.

However, the projects executed in the region were highly accretive for the group's profitability. Lower revenue in Far East and Middle East were partially offset by stronger activity in Europe and North America.

The recurring EBITDA is almost €79 million, up 7% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 15.5%, which is an increase of 180 basis points compared to 2024. This improvement was driven by a favorable geographical mix supported by projects in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Tajikistan, and other countries.

Naturally, this EBITDA growth has been instrumental in strengthening the group's overall economic and cash flow performance. Turning now to the Soilmec division, we see a similar dynamic as in Trevi: slightly lower revenue, but stronger margins.

The revenue decline was concentrated in the first half of 2025, influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the potential US government tariffs, which temporarily slowed sales in North America. This gap was almost fully recovered in the second half of the year thanks to improved sales momentum in US.

The overall revenue were down 1.9%, but recurring EBITDA increased both in absolute terms and in percentage of revenue. The margin improvement also reflects the impact of an internal program focused on enhancing production efficiency and procurement processes.

You can see already the slide 14, and so we are now focusing on the group profit and loss. We have already commented on revenues and EBITDA, let me now highlight the main items below the EBITDA.

Depreciation amounted to €27.8 million, lower than last year due to reduced depreciation on leasing contracts under IFRS 16. Financial expenses decreased from €30 million to €27.5 million, despite slightly higher non-monetary IFRS 9 charges, equal to 10.

€10.8 million versus €10.1 million in 2024. This improvement mainly reflects lower interest on our debt, because in 2025, we recognized €13.4 million interest, down by €2.3 million compared to the previous year.

Moving to the income tax, the income tax totaled €11.4 million, related to taxable income generated in jurisdiction where we have no tax losses carried forward available. Finally, the net profit reached €8.6 million.

The portion related to minority was limited around €600,000, meaning that almost the entire profit belongs to the group. Let's move onto the cash generation section.

As shown on slide 15, we maintained a strong focus on cash generation with the objective of reducing our debt. At the end of 2025, operating cash flow is nearly €72 million, with a cash conversion of 84%, and free cash flow to firm is €51.3 million.

This positive result was supported by strong operating performance, positive working capital dynamics, and it allowed us to fund €20.5 million of CapEx and, as we will see shortly, meet our debt obligations. Moving to slide 16, this shows the evolution of our net debt position.

Cash generated during the year improved our net financial position by €22 million on a pre-IFRS 9 basis, from €221 million to €199 million, and by €11.5 million on a post-IFRS 9 basis, from €199 million to €187.4 million. The €51.3 million of free cash flow enabled us to cover €14 million of interest payments and dividend to minorities, and to cover also €3.5 million of extraordinary expenses, despite a negative forex impact of €10 million due to the depreciation of US dollar against the euro beginning in March 2025.

On slide 17, we show liquidity and gross debt as of December 2025. We have at the end of year 2025 a solid liquidity position of €98.1 million.

Other current financial assets totaled €1.4 million, decreasing by around €12 million due to the collection of receivables linked to 2020 disposal of the Oil & Gas division. Gross debt amounted to €286.9 million, improving by approx €25 million versus last year.

Let me say that really reducing the gross debt remains a key priority for Trevi, and it is one of the pillars of our new strategic plan. A more detailed overview of the gross debt is provided on the right-hand side of the slide, where we can see that IFRS 9 effects and PIK interest, totaling around €15.5 million, were more than offset by €40.5 million of debt repayments, including both long-term amortization and repayment of short-term facilities.

Let me now spend some words on the short-term debt. All in all, the gross debt amounts to €286.9 million, of which €269.2 is classified as short-term.

This amount include €29 million of short-term facilities and €240 million of debt that was rescheduled under the financial restructuring agreement signed in 2022. According to that agreement, the rescheduled portion matures on December 31st, 2026.

For this reason, it has been reclassified from long-term to short-term debt in 2025 balance sheet. This debt will be fully addressed within the new financing package that I will illustrate in a few minutes.

The package provides, among other measures, a significant longer maturity of the debt, ensuring full coverage of this exposure. Coming back to the calculation of net debt, after deducting cash and liquidity as well as other current financial assets from the gross debt, we have the net debt at year-end that stood at €187.4 million.

Our leverage ratio as net debt over recurring EBITDA stands at 2.19, and it is comfortably below the 2.75 covenant threshold set for December 2025. Let me now hand back to Gigi for the strategic plan.

Giuseppe Caselli

Thank you very much, Vincenzo. Now, we have a look for what are the main elements on which we based our 2026-2029 business plan.

Fundamentally, we could say that we have a good start in each of 2026 that is deriving from the tremendous amount of works that we have done in the previous year. I would like to reinforce the fact that so far, in all these years, we have always maintained what we have declared to the market, and we have even sometimes overachieved the figures that we gave to the market.

It means that the way how we are approaching how to plan our future is based on fundamentals that stands. Now we have to enrich, we have to improve, we have to increase the efforts that we have done so far in order to continue delivering to the market what we are promising.

Regarding Trevi, basically our aim is to strengthen the position in complex project. Complex project, of course they have a risk and reward situation where basically, considering the fact that our know-how, our capability, our knowledge of our business let us take this type of project, we have a major reward.

This is what we are looking for. Unfortunately, we cannot base our plan just on this type of projects, because these are the one that the market offer.

We have to live also with other activities that we considered bread and butter, business as usual, in our normal activities worldwide. Then, the second element is to try to diversify as much as we can to balance our operations around the world.

This will be visible from the other chart that we are going to present in the next slide. Then, of course, last but not least, to proceed to improve our corporate and operational structure.

We have done quite a lot, I would say, but we never ever think that we reached the level that we should. We suppose to keep on improving, trying to find any possible solution in order to improve our corporate structure.

In terms of Soilmec, again Soilmec went to a long journey where we started in the beginning with a new industrial approach, starting from high production to lean production, applying the concept that are from automotive to our industry, our equipment. Then we have rationalized all the production site along Italy, having improved the way how we build things, how we construct things, and we have concentrated in just one only area production that is Cesena.

Now, since we are keep on trying to improve our KPI in production, definitely we have started to develop new products that so far, the one that we have presented even recently in the fair in the States, the most important fair in the States, have a lot of audience and a lot of attention. It means that our thinking is found extremely positive to the market.

Then, we will try, since we will reinforce our financial structure, to present ourselves on the rental market with a limited number of equipment. Then, in order to avoid some barrier that are dictated by rules and regulation, specifically custom rule and regulations, we have dedicated a new production line in South America for a specific market for a specific type of equipment that has quite a market in South America.

I am proud to say that in less than 8 months with a minimal investment cost, we have produced the first two equipment, one being already been sold, and the other one is already under negotiation. Again, it means that our idea in trying to find out where and how, with the limited resources that we have, to try to improve our market penetration is proving right.

Last but not least, to improve our supply chain and procurement. This is one of the key elements that will definitely drive the EBITDA of Soilmec higher than the others simply because we are convinced that we can buy better.

We can have those equipment and parts that we need in order to assemble machine in more just-in-time approach, and this will be even helping us in penetrate the market to provide equipment in a shorter time. We have seen that in a certain equipment, so far we have been able to reduce our time to market from 1 year to 6 months, and this is where we are going to work aggressively in this plan.

On which basis we have developed our business plan? Usually, as we have done so far, and again the fact proved that we were right, we have a bottom-up approach.

We don't reinvent the wheel. We base our analysis on facts, and the history is our fact when we based our construction of the plan, based on those opportunity that are visible and are tangible.

However, we confront what is the result of our business plan with the compound annual rate that the market give us in order to see if our assumption, our analysis are comforted by this type of approach. Even this year in this plan, it's visible that we have considered a compound annual growth rate of 5% for Trevi, while the market, as shown slide 20, gives a variance between 5.3% to 6.8%.

Similarly, in the equipment, we are envisaging a CAGR of 5.1%, and the market show between 7% and 5.1%. If somebody will have a look to just this type of figure, can see that our business plan is definitely something that is sustainable in terms of our activities.

Then, I just mentioned in previous slide what are the basic elements on which we built our business plan. For sure we are going to focus ourself on those area where there is an high growth and better margin aligned with our positioning.

It means that we are going to concentrate for the next years in Americas. When I say Americas, I say United States that recently have seen an increase in terms of opportunities; in South America, but South America only on specific opportunity driven by projects where there are visible projects and projects that serves specifically business that has a remuneration, in this case Argentina, we are working for the oil and gas sector; and then, last but not least, to continue to have a presidium and a strong presidium in the Middle East, but rebalancing the weight of Middle East with other parts of the world, because we don't think that the Middle East could grow as he as grown in the last couple of years.

Then of course, we go to rationalization of costs that turn in rationalization of non-core branches, and at the same time, specialized ourself more and more in those that we are best of in terms of high complex, high technical requirements projects, where we can again value the risk that we are going to have doing this project, and to have the remuneration that is in line with the risk and the knowledge that we have, more the knowledge rather than the risk. Then, of course, is our aim to look for a project that has a longer span in terms of execution, a larger project.

As in our business, the project has a range between 3 to 9 months. If we could have a project that even touch the 1-year lifespan, this will improve our stability in terms of revenue and, of course, our generation of EBITDA.

Then, of course, one of the key elements that has brought us to the level where we are is the monitoring of our cost and the reduction of our cost in terms of corporate and operational structure. In terms of Soilmec, well, now, since we have gone through to the various stages where we have changed our industrial approach, we have reduced our base cost of production, we have rationalized the production line together with the products that Soilmec is producing, now is the time to have a portfolio expansion in order to penetrate better certain market.

This is, for instance, generating the fact that last year we were thinking to have a production line, a small production line but effective production line in Brazil where, as the costs of the customs are extremely high. Producing outside and trying to penetrate the market producing outside, of course, has a tremendous barrier entry.

Nevertheless, if you produce in Brazil, you have certification with the local financial institution that provide loans to the various companies that are buying equipment. Proudly, I can say that was a very fast-track project with a minimum investment that we have done and completed.

We have already produced the first of its kind of this type of equipment, the second one just behind. Of course, the market has acclaimed this type of product extremely positive.

They are receiving it extremely positive. We expect to stabilize our production in a certain number of equipment that when it will be at regime, will be in the range of 12 equipment per annum, one per month.

Nevertheless, if this type of approach is proven successfully by facts, we are going to see to produce another type of equipment that is one in a range that Brazil is using the most. Again, I want to see what is the result on the first one, and to see if everything is go per plan, we will start with the second one.

As I mentioned before, one of the key element in order to reduce cost, to have better profitability, is to widen our supply chain and to improve our procurement efficiency, and nevertheless, is to reducing the time to market from producing the equipment and selling the equipment. Last but not least, another element of the business plan, since we are going to strengthen our financial structure, to present ourselves also in the rental market for a niche number of equipment, those equipments that has an appetite in the market and can be eventually reutilizated in a different way in the market, of course.

It means that after a certain period of rental, they can be sold to other contractor that want to buy second-hand equipment. In terms of figure, what we expect that we will start from €624 million in 2025 and, considering a CAGR of 5.5% in line the minimum target of the market, say, we are going to hopefully achieve above €750 million; in terms of EBITDA, reaching the €100 million mark in 2029; and in terms of CapEx, from the current €21 million per annum, to reach cumulatively in the 4 years around €90 million CapEx.

In a nutshell, we want to deliver a resilient and sustainable growth to best position our group in the market itself. Regarding the division Trevi, since I'm expecting a lot of questions in terms of the Middle East, what is the situation, what is going to happen, we can see that Trevi will have a CAGR of 5% as I was mentioning along the business plan, from the current 506 million in 2025 to above 600 million in 2029; in terms of recurring EBITDA, an increase from the 79 million to above 80 80 million in 2029.

If you see on slide 23, the market distribution by geography, you can see that there will be a rebalancing of the various geographical area, especially in Europe where we see currently we are at 47% to 27%, and the Middle East that drop from 22% to 19%. Sorry.

I made a mistake in terms of color. The Middle East is from 47% to 27%, and the Europe to 20 22% to 19%.

The other one, are USA, we see as an increase of the portion from 14% to 26%, and the Far East from 9% to 18%. Basically, it's visible the reduction from the Middle East from the current situation in 2025 to 19%.

Again, this is not dictated by the current scenario that nobody knows where is going to end, but by the fact that the Middle East has gone through a tremendous increase of activities in this year, and we don't think that it can continue on this way for the year to come. Definitely, we have to find out different area in the world where we can express our capability to work.

As I say, one is the United States of America where we have a strong and solid company, there are opportunities, and the outlook seems to be extremely positive. Together, we try to penetrate also in a different market in Central America where currently we are bidding different projects.

Regarding Soilmec, we can have as we have a current 142 million in 2025, and we expect with a CAGR of 5% to reach 175. The EBITDA will have a better improve from the current 13 million to around 20 million and above.

The distribution of course is divided by type of equipment. Of course, we are concentrated in those equipment that have an higher technological value, at the same time of course an higher EBITDA value.

Basically, we are talking about hydromills, cranes. We don't do so many cranes, but specific cranes for soil compaction.

Piles in the mid-range where currently we are considered the best company in the world in terms of equipment efficiency. I'm proud to say that we are reaching the same level in hydromill.

Basically, Soilmec now around the world, reputation of Soilmec around the world is extremely high for piles, equipment that do piling, especially for the medium-high range, and for hydromills where we are reaching a level of excellence and we are even surpassed our competitor in terms of quality and performance. This is a process that took not so much, considered that we have bridged the gap with the competitor in hydromills in a very, very short time.

Now, I will leave the floor to Vincenzo for going through the financing package.

Vincenzo Auciello

Okay. Thanks, Gigi.

Let me now move to the key objectives of the financing package at slide 26. First, the overall goal is to bring Trevi's debt fully back to an in bonis position, completing the transition out of the 2022 restructuring perimeter.

Second, the refinancing allows us to significantly extend the group's debt maturity profile up to 2031, ensuring greater financial flexibility and full alignment with the business plan horizon. Third, the fully covered €100 million rights issue provides the capital needed to support Trevi's ability to pursue growth.

The strengthening of the equity base is a natural consequence of these measures. Fourth, the overall package enhances our ability to execute the business plan, providing the financial capacity needed to support organic growth and to secure new tenders and projects awards across our core geographies.

Fifth, the financing package also puts the group on a clear deleveraging path. Leverage decrease from roughly 2.2% in 2025 to around 1.2x at year-end 2026 and further down to approx zero by the end of 2029, in line with the strategic plan.

Finally, with a more robust financial profile and significantly lower debt exposure, Trevi will be well-positioned to evaluate future growth opportunities from a position of strength. Overall, this financing package is fully aligned with our strategic priorities and is designed to provide stability, flexibility, and support for the execution of the business plan over the coming years.

Let me now take a moment to walk you through the financing package that underpins our industrial plan. It is a comprehensive and well-balanced solution designed to give the group the stability and the runway we need to deliver on our strategy over the next few years.

I start with the refinancing, a refinancing of €170 million. We have already secured a comfort letter from a pool of leading financial institution, which gives us a very solid base to move forward.

A term sheet has been agreed with financial institutions outlining all the key terms, including a structure that combines a pre-amortization phase with a progressive amortization schedule extending to 2031 the maturity of the new debt. Final approval from financial institution is subject, of course, to their respective competent corporate bodies' approval.

We expect to execute the agreement within the summer break, and at which point we will provide the full visibility on all the terms. Overall, this tranche gives us long-term stability and capital structure to support, as I already mentioned in the last few minutes, the growth trajectory outlined in the plan.

The second component of the package is the €100 million rights issue, which is already fully covered. This is a very important signal for the market.

CDP Equity has provided a commitment to subscribe its pro rata share, which represent about 21.3% of total amount. For the remaining 78.7%, we have secured a pre-underwriting agreement from a primary Italian bank.

This means that the entire transaction is effectively covered before launch, something that, let me say, especially in the current market environment, send a clear message of confidence in our strategy and the direction the company is taking. We will submit the request for the relevant authorization to the shareholders at extraordinary general meeting on May 13th.

We expect to launch the rights issue at the end of second quarter and complete it before summer break. Strengthening our equity base is a key pillar of the maneuver.

It gives us additional resilience, lower leverage, and position us to better capture new opportunities. The last element of the package focuses on a short-term facilities and bonding lines.

These are essential tools for a group like ours, given the nature of our contracts and cash dynamic of our international operations. The short-term facilities will support our working capital requirements, while the bonding lines ensure we maintain the necessary capacity to bid, win, and execute large projects across our key markets.

About this topic, discussions with the banks are moving in parallel with the refinancing, and we expect to finalize these lines coherently with the time of refinancing. To summarize, the financing package is fully structured, well-progressing, and entirely aligned with the needs of our industrial plan.

Between long-term refinancing, the fully covered rights issue, and the support on working capital and bonding facilities, we are building a capital structure that is stronger, more resilient, and capable of supporting the group's growth over the coming years. Turning to the slide 28, let me illustrate the evolution of group net debt and impact of the 2026 financial package.

Starting from the net debt of €187 million in 2025, the financial maneuver, and in particular the rights issue planned for 2026, generates an immediate and significant reduction, bringing the net debt to around €90-€100 million by year-end 2026. From that point onward, the projected improvement in operating performance and margin under the business plan, along with the generation of cash, drives a consistent deleveraging path.

As shown in the chart, net debt continues to decline steadily through 2027 and 2028. Crucially, when combining the successful execution of the rights issue and delivering the business plan and its expected profitability and generation of cash in terms of free cash flow from operation of about €160 million along the plan, the group is projected to reach an essential close to zero net debt position by 2020 2029.

This is a key takeaway of the financial maneuver. The strengthening of the equity base in 2026, together with the progressive cash generation embedded in the plan, positions the group to achieve a net debt/EBITDA ratio moving from 2.2 today to approx zero by end of the horizon, significantly reinforcing our financial resilience.

Now, let me hand back to Gigi for the guidance and the closing remarks.

Giuseppe Caselli

Thank you, Vincenzo. We go to slide 30 where we give the guidance for 2026.

In terms of group revenues, we are expecting in a range between 640-670. This range of revenues is supported by our solid backlog that is being already secured.

As mentioned before, if you recall, we reached more than 800 million in February, already in February, in terms of backlog. Of course, Trevi and Soilmec both, they are two halves of the same apple, are going to contribute positively to the group growth.

As I was mentioning in the previous conference call, our business is based on the fact that our projects has last between 3 and 9 months. Looking how they are going to distribute the revenues in the year, we will have a softer first half and an harder second half.

It means less revenue in the first half and major and bigger revenue in the second half due to the fact that projects are starting, phased along the year, but of course within the year. In terms of recurring EBITDA, the range that we are foreseeing today is between 70-80.

Of course, the EBITDA go in line and in parallel with the distribution of the revenues. Softer in the first half and better in the second half.

Regarding the net debt, due to the financing maneuver that Vincenzo just explained, we believe that at the end of the year will be between 90 and 100 million. What to say more?

What I want to say, the takeaway is that we have achieved a 2025 with solid result. And 2025 is not just the first year that we show this type of result, but is a continuation of the previous successful years.

I would say that since 2020, we always, and I remark and I underline, always maintained our forecast in terms of financial result, even during the COVID. We have a well-diversified backlog that has been already acquired, and we have a strong order intake for the first 2 months.

We are seeing that there is a lot of opportunities around the world that are still and keep on presenting to ourselves. In the first 2 months, we have seen a positive momentum in terms of commercial activities that allow us to even move our sight towards area where we are trying to enter in order to better, even better diversify and to have more opportunity around the world.

As I was mentioning, and of course I'm ready to take all the question related to the Middle East, so far the Middle East has not been affected by the current situation. Has been affected by other things, but not that.

[laughter] Not the current situation, complex situation. The business plan is expected to deliver a sustainable growth along the 4-year plan with the forecast that we have shown in the previous slide, where we plan to reach more than 100 million in terms of recurring EBITDA.

Last but not least, that is one of the key elements of this business plan, one of the fundamental elements, I could say a cornerstone of this business plan, is a convincing financing package that is mainly tailored to enhance financial flexibility, to support our medium-long term growth, and strengthening our capital structure. I have concluded our presentation, and now we are ready to take the question that the floor may raise.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions.

Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time. We will pause for a moment as participants are joining the queue.

First question is from Filippo Mazzoleni, Alantra.

Filippo Mazzoleni

Yes, good morning, everyone. Can you hear me?

Giuseppe Caselli

Yes.

Filippo Mazzoleni

Good morning, everyone. Filippo Mazzoleni from Alantra.

Congratulations on the results, particularly on the improvement in mix and the overall quality of earnings. I have a few questions, starting with the 2026.

Is the expected decline in EBITDA mainly driven by project phasing effects, meaning that newer orders will ramp up later than previously expected, or should we also factor in some normalization of margins? Then, on the financial package, how much of the capital increase is intended to support growth versus deleveraging?

Just a follow-up on the medium-term deleveraging, you target a net debt close to zero by the end of the plan. Excluding the capital increase, this would imply a meaningful level of annual cash generation, circa €30 million per year, compared to your historical track record.

Could you elaborate on the key drivers behind this improvement? Thank you very much.

Giuseppe Caselli

I will take the first two questions, and Vincenzo will take the third one. The first question is related to the fact that the EBITDA absolute value of this year is lower than the previous year.

As although we are selective of the market opportunities, definitely we don't create the market opportunities. We have to be very fast in order to get those opportunities that the market present.

What we have seen in 2026, we don't see projects with a very high profitability. This is happen in a specific case.

It happened in the past, and for sure it will happen in the future. We don't see, for this year, those major projects that of course are embedding a bigger risk than the other, but at the same time has a major reward.

Since we do our business plan on a bottom-up approach, with the visibility that we have, not we pretend to have or we invent, this is the result. Definitely, this opportunities with a major profitability will appear in the year 2027, and we are ready to take those opportunity.

We have to be extremely fast to snatch those opportunities whenever they appear. We don't see this year a sort of normalization for this year of our expected EBITDA.

The fact that is the first semester will be softer than the second is again dictated by the fact that when the project starts and when we are going to end those one. In the beginning, this year we have seen that there are certain activities that having a slow start, not due to us, but due, for instance, permits that the client has to receive in order to proceed with the projects or reengineering of the foundation for certain development that the client is carrying on.

Of course, we are there on a stand-by, the client recognize our cost, but definitely the cost is not equal to the revenue that you can express when you have a full-fledged project. I hope that I answered your first question.

Then, the second question, if you help me to remember, please? The proceeds of the right issue.

Correct? No.

The proceeds of the right issue. Yes.

In this period, we have studied quite a lot various opportunity in the world, and we are discussing around the world on certain niche, I repeat niche, opportunity in our cluster, because we want to try to take those opportunities where we can maximize our level of profitability. The amounts, well, depends upon how these opportunities will be available to us.

In our scenario, we have three, four opportunities in front of us, and we are trying to see which one will materialize first, and which of those will materialize in the next period. Not because I don't want to give an answer, because as today, I don't have the answer.

Filippo, I think one of your question was about the proceeds of the right issue, correct?

Filippo Mazzoleni

He already answered about that one. The next one was about the cash generation during the period.

I calculated around €30 million per year up to the full deleverage expected in 2029. What are the main drivers that should drive this reduction in net debt to a bottom production?

Thank you.

Vincenzo Auciello

Okay. Let's start from the proceeds.

The proceeds from the rights issues are, again, an integral part of the overall refinancing package. The proceeds are primarily intended to reduce the group's financial debt, and thereby increasing our financial flexibility within the new refinancing structure.

Then there is a smaller portion of proceeds that will remain available straightaway as a liquidity. That's not the predominant component, but it provide us an additional degree of flexibility to assess potential growth opportunities in the cluster, as our CEO was saying.

While about the cash generation, let's say the free cash flow plays a central role in the net debt trajectory shown in the plan. We have seen an essential net debt close to zero in 2029 that is, let's say, a combination of the right issue of €100 million in 2026 plus €160 million, more or less a projection, €160 million of free cash flow during, let's say, the horizon.

Let's say that this cash generation supports both interest payments and amortizing structure of the new financing package, leading to a steady and visible deleveraging path, a net debt position close to zero by the end of the plan. I would say that the 160 are progressive.

We start with a lower cash generation in 2026, and we increase the cash generation along the plan, following the increase of EBITDA.

Filippo Mazzoleni

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Alessandro Cecchini, Equita.

Alessandro Cecchini

Can you hear me?

Giuseppe Caselli

Yes. Yes.

Alessandro Cecchini

Hello? Okay.

Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one, if you can elaborate a little bit on the backlog.

Your exposure is clear in term of geographies, but if you can elaborate a little bit more if it's concentrated on single large projects or which kind of profitability has the backlog. If you can increase, I would say, the visibility on this.

My second question is instead about you spoke about a very good order intake the first 2 months. We would like to better understand if, in term of orders, projects, etc., there is a sort of slowdown linked to the Middle East war, not only Middle East, but in general to the market.

Finally, my last question is about which kind of impact are you expecting in term of financial charges? We believe a reduction, but if you could elaborate a little bit more on this.

Thank you.

Giuseppe Caselli

I'll start with the first one on the backlog. Usually, what we are trying to achieve?

We are trying to have a backlog that is consumed in a year. Basically, we are very, very cautious in trying to get as much backlog as we can, no.

We are trying to have a backlog that is consumed in the same year. As always, a backlog that is renewing itself month by month.

It means that if we have as an average €40 million revenues per month, we try to get €40 million €40 million of new projects per month in order to have always a backlog that renew itself month by month. This because we don't want to take an excessive risk in terms of sparks that you can have in terms of cost of material, cost of transportation, and you have always a sort of check and balance situation of what you get and what you do in the month.

In terms of major project that are in the backlog, for instance, we have one big project in New York with the tunneling of that link New Jersey with Manhattan and the related activities. Plus we have certain projects in the Philippines.

If you recall, in the latest year, Philippines has always been an area where we were expecting projects to come. Now, since end of the year, early of this year, a certain amounts of project has been awarded finally, and we are taking an important part to it.

Nonetheless, we are participating to other projects around the world that are extremely important with a size that is bigger than the normal size in the around the world. I'm not allowed to say where, because I'm binded by the confidentiality agreement with the client.

The pipeline that we have in front, in terms of bigger project, is not bad at all, put in this way. We have to be successful in order to have it on our backlog.

In terms of your question in the Middle East, in the Middle East, we don't have projects that has a large amounts. These are projects of the medium size, the size that for us is business as usual.

Projects that ranging between €7-€20 million maximum are more on the size of €7-€10 million rather than 20. What we have noticed even recently that all the even the pipeline commercial activities are proceeding.

Nonetheless, we are expecting certain awards during these days. As recently has been the Eid al-Fitr after Ramadan, that is usually a period where activity soften quite a lot.

Now we are expecting that those activities will be concluded during this period in April month, no more than that. Nevertheless, there is a continuous amounts of opportunity that are flooded to various contractor where we are working on it.

Then, the other question, if you can help me, please?

Alessandro Cecchini

Yes, in term of financial charges that with this new package

Giuseppe Caselli

I leave the floor to Vincenzo.

Vincenzo Auciello

Thanks, Alessandro. Thanks for the question.

Let's say that the new financing package marks a clear return to a normal, to a market-based capital structure following the restructuring phase. As a result, the interest rates applied to the new facility are market-based and fully consistent with a senior financing structure for a group with the Trevi risk profile, also taking into account the derisking effect of the capital increase.

However, it's important to look at financial expenses in absolute terms rather than only pricing. The financing package is built around a significantly lower level of net debt compared to the past, combined with an amortizing repayment profile.

This leads to a progressive reduction in outstanding debt over the plan period. As a consequence, despite the market-based interest rates, we expect financial expenses in absolute value to gradually decrease over the time and in line with the deleveraging trajectory embedded in the plan.

If we mention, for instance, what was something that I mentioned in the presentation, we were talking about in the range of €14 million interest in 2025 on the net debt, let's say this amount will be progressively lower during the plan thanks to the effect of the deleveraging path of the group we have explained. In absolute value, we will have lower interest along the plan.

Alessandro Cecchini

Thank you. If I may, just to recap on the Middle East, in your plan, I don't know if it was executed before or after the war, but it seems that from your words that you expected already a decrease in turnover because, actually making calculation, 2029 sales are roughly minus 30% in Middle East versus 2025.

You were already accounting a sort of normalization of the Middle East regardless the current situation. It's right at this point?

Vincenzo Auciello

Because the line is not clear. Anyway, if I got well your question is about what is the end point of Middle East in terms of revenue in 2029, where we were already planning more than reduction was a rebalance, a normal, physiological rebalance, because we have seen a kind of explosion of investment in Middle East in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Our revenue has been also boosted up by this cycle of investment in Middle East. We don't see the cycle of investment of Middle East at upside as the last years.

That's why in our portfolio of revenue in 2025 2029 is rebalanced. It's not an effect of the war, as also the CEO said.

It's more because in our strategy, we don't see that cycle of investment, and there is a rebalancing of our portfolio project along the plan and in 2029.

Alessandro Cecchini

Okay. Thank you.

Giuseppe Caselli

Of course, what is important to say that we have seen since I arrived at the end of 2019, there was a period in '19, '20 where the Middle East was extremely low in terms of coverage. Then it exploded.

It exploded first in Saudi Arabia and now in the Middle East. For instance, in our plan, if, for instance, The Line or anything like that on a major project will come to light again, definitely we are going to participate.

We don't count on those type of milestone cornerstone projects, because as of today, we don't have the visibility.

Alessandro Cecchini

Okay. Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone. For any further questions, please press * and 1 on your telephone.

Operator

Mr. Caselli, gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Giuseppe Caselli

Okay. Thank you very much, indeed.

Thank you for the audience, and have a nice day to everybody. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over.

You may disconnect your telephones. Have a good day.