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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptSeptember 4, 2026

Łukasz Kucharski

Good afternoon and welcome to the Warsaw Stock Exchange Group conference call covering the results of the second quarter and first half of 2026. Thank you for joining us today.

Let me introduce today's speakers. We are joined by Tomasz Bardziłowski, Chief Executive Officer of the Warsaw Stock Exchange; Marcin Rulnicki, Chief Financial Officer of Warsaw Stock Exchange; and Mariusz Buraczyński, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Polish Power Exchange, or TGE.

We will begin with a presentation of the group's financial results and key business developments, followed by a question-and-answer session. Without further ado, let me hand the floor to Tomasz.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Yes. Hello, everybody, and welcome to our earnings call.

Our results in the second quarter and also in the first half were obviously driven by a very strong cash equity market. Our main indices are up around 30% year-to-date, and this has been reflected in the strong activity.

Turnover in cash equities was up 15% year-on-year in the second quarter and 27% in the first half. On the other hand, we have observed falling volumes and turnover in our energy trading in second quarter.

In electricity, it was down 4%, and in gas down 28%, followed a very strong first quarter. We'll talk a bit more about the reasons behind, especially gas segment, in the presentation.

Overall, our consolidated revenue went up by 8% in the second quarter, driven by 13% growth in financial market and a 7% decline in commodity market. Year-to-date in the first half, the growth in revenues is 17% year-on-year.

OpEx growth was 10%, a slight decline versus first quarter. Adjusted operating profit up almost 4% in the second quarter, and adjusted net profit up 1% in the second quarter to 58 million zlotys.

After the first half, the net profit is up 18% to 128 million zlotys. Here, you see the performance of our main indices.

Warsaw has been one of the global leaders in terms of performance in the first half with around 30% growth in main indices, as I said. Here locally, we've been especially celebrating the record high level of WIG20.

After almost 20 years, WIG20 surpassed its historical highest level. However, this is an index which is excluding dividends.

On total return basis, it's up over 100% over last 2 years. Strong performance in large caps and also mid-caps in Poland.

Equities turnover, as I said, up 15% in second quarter, a slight, but only slight, deceleration from the first quarter. However, and this is what we show in the lower chart, when you see the performance and the volume growth in July and August, you see around 44% growth, which of course makes us a bit more optimistic in terms of our revenues in the third quarter.

We are also quite happy to see that our trading velocity ratio remains above 50%, placing Warsaw as one of the most liquid exchanges in Europe, obviously on market cap relative basis. We are very happy to see increased IPO activity: 10 new debuts on the main market in the year-to-date versus just 3 in the whole of 2025.

In particularly, the value of ECM transactions quite high, almost 20 billion zlotys year-to-date. These are the SPOs, capital increases, and ABBs, and this is almost 80% growth versus last year.

Overall, 35 transactions concluded on the market year-to-date. Also, we are happy to see that we've reversed a declining trend in terms of number of listed companies.

The number of new debuts was higher than that of delistings, and we have right now 403 companies listed on the main market. Also, happy to see an increase in free float driven by especially ABB transactions in large-cap stocks.

The free float is now around 54%, and this compares with less than 50% few years ago. Good activity also on the corporate bond market, on our Catalyst market.

The value of non-Treasury bond issues close to 30 billion zlotys year-to-date. 160 new issues admitted to trading year-to-date, and overall, the value of bonds listed at 175 billion, which is 23% increase versus at the same period of last year.

We continue to make efforts to revitalize our corporate bond market, and our activity aimed at simplified issuance process, increase liquidity, including also an obligation to have a market maker for corporate bond above a certain threshold, and also lower regulatory barriers. Of course, one of our strategic priorities is to attract retail investors to the exchange, and we do it also through widening of our ETF offer.

We've been very successful on this front, especially in the first half. In January, there was just 17 ETFs listed on the market.

Now we have 45 and hoping to cross 50 ETFs over next few months. 25 new listings just year-to-date.

Also here, we show on the chart to the right that overall, the inflows and investments of Polish retail investors into equities in the year-to-date are around 5 billion zlotys. However, only 70% of those investments are on ETFs listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

We believe that we have still a lot to do in terms of increasing our share and overall volumes in ETFs on the market. This is also why we are expanding our offer of our indices.

Over last few weeks, we had 3 new indices in the debt market. Next week, we will publish a new index in our alternative market NewConnect, and also we are working on a new index for innovative companies, companies with high R&D spending.

That's on the main issues and our corporate developments. Right now, pass to Marcin to guide you through details of our results.

Marcin Rulnicki

Thank you. Hello, everyone.

Let me walk you through details of our financial results in the next few slides, starting with the summary of of P&L, as usually. Top-down, looking at our revenue, it it was 155.4 million zlotys in Q2 '26 after almost 8% growth year-on-year.

The drivers of this of this growth were in in the financial market. That's pretty pretty much the same drivers as usually, cash equity trading, very good performance in Armenia, and also higher sales of market data.

At the same time, in the commodity market, we observed a small decline in Q2, and mainly because of lower activity of investors in the natural gas trading. Subsequently, the clearing of transactions on gas also went down compared to the previous year.

We can see a growth in other revenue, and this is like a bucket including a number of different activities, but it's just accumulation of a few small sources of revenue, and I do not expect that this growth is something to to to remain for for the for the for the following quarters. Usually in this in this line, we present, for example, revenue from our subsidiary logistics, from renting the rooms in the Warsaw Stock Exchange building, and other activities which are non-core activities, and that's just like a coincidence that we had an accumulation of of these in Q2.

We will be back at the regular levels in the following quarters. In the operating costs, the growth was 10.2%, almost 100 million in Q2.

We have dedicated slides where we explain details. This growth in revenue and and this a bit higher growth in operating expenses resulted in a small increase in our cost-income ratio.

It went up to 64.2%, it's 1 130 basis points higher than the year before. We had small adjustments because of non-recurring transactions with impact both on our operating income and net profit line.

They were the result of recalculating the provisions for a potential return of grants received for non-core projects, but their impact on on both lines is not as significant. Therefore, adjusted operating profit was almost 55 million zlotys after 4% 3.8% growth, and EBITDA was almost 63 million, 0.6% growth, speaking about adjusted numbers here.

What happened below the operating profit line, we had slightly higher share in in profits of associates, that is, of course, the depository activity, and lower lower result on financial activities, and this is due to lower interest rates we can we can use to invest our excess cash. Maybe one more thing to mention here is that our return on equity ratio went up to 20.1%.

I think this is it hasn't been above 20% level for 7 years, this this reflects our improving results over time. Speaking about the revenue structure, nothing surprising here compared to the previous slide.

Maybe one one thing to to comment is the share of revenue which is not related to to trading activity. This non-trading-related revenue went up to 35.6% in Q2 '26 compared to 31.3% the year before.

Now speaking about the trading-related revenue, the bigger the biggest part of revenue within the financial market segment, as we as we mentioned before, the driver for growth in this line of business was activity on cash equities. The revenue from this class of assets went up to 58.4 million zlotys, 11.2% higher year-on-year.

This was following the higher activity of investors on on on cash equities on the market. The turnover in Q2 on the market was 151 billion zlotys, 15% up compared to the previous year.

We had higher share of high-volume providers and market makers or liquidity providers. Their share in total turnover was close to 36%, 310 basis points higher than in Q2 '25.

This translated also to lower average fee per transaction. It went down by 3.7% and was at the level of 1.89 bps in Q2.

We had much higher turnover on ETFs, and this is this is this is good news. ETFs in Q2, the turnover on ETFs in Q2 went up almost 90% year-on-year, and in the first half of the year, it was almost 140% higher than in the first 6 months of 2025.

Of course, this turnover does not translate to significant revenue in the group yet, but we like we like the trend, obviously. In other business lines within financial market segment, we had growth in information services.

We are used to, let's say, solid single-digit growth in this in this line of business, and this is another quarter of good performance here. Maybe the the growth rate looking at Q2 only seems a bit lower, but please have a look at the at the first half of the year compared to 2 6 months of 2025, because in comparable data in '25, we had an adjustment in revenue recognition, that's why this growth rate looks looks lower.

In Armenia, we have still very good performance. The revenue from Armenian depository and the stock exchange goes up consistently.

In Q2 '26, the revenue from the depository activity was 130% higher than the year before. This is, let me say it again, due to revised higher fees for depository services that were implemented in July 2025.

I'm mentioning this date not without a reason, because it means that Q2 '26 was the last quarter when we had this effect of lower base because of lower rates for services. From Q3 '26, we will be comparing to the same fees, the same rates, only only organic reasons will will will be making the potential growth.

Therefore, the growth rate will certainly go go down. At the same time, we're happy about the exchange activities, which are also generating more and more revenue.

Of course, the numbers here are not significant yet, but we see higher activity of market participants, especially in the corporate bond market in Armenia. Listing fees, stable, single-digit growth.

No no surprises here. Now a few slides about the commodity market.

I will ask Mariusz for a for for comments to this.

Mariusz Buraczyński

Thank you, Marcin. Hello, everybody.

Let me start with the electricity market. In Q2, electricity trading volumes reached 29 terawatt-hours, down 4% year-on-year.

The decline was mainly driven by the forward market, forward volume fell to 15 terawatt-hours. The good news is that in Q3, we are already seeing a recovery.

On the spot market, volumes continue to grow, increasing 15 years 15% year-on-year, and growth was supported by stronger activity on the international intraday and day-ahead market. Also, it is worth to mention that it was also supported by introduction of 15-minutes products on the first fixing.

Going to gas trading, the gas trading volume reached 44 terawatt-hours in Q2. It means down 28% year-on-year.

The decrease came mainly from the forward market, which was 34% down. Higher gas price reduced demand, especially for longer-term contracts.

Additionally, we must remember at this point that there was a high base from the last year. At the same time, the gas spot market performed very well, and volumes increased 18% year-on-year to 8.4 terawatt-hours.

Yes. This slide is a good illustration confirming the negative correlation between the prices and turnover on the gas market.

The gas market is highly sensitive to the geopolitical developments, and it is often driven by them. These events always have a significant impact on the commodity markets, but this year has been particular dynamic, and it shows it has very strong impact on our turnover on the gas market.

Going to the next slide, yes, in Q2, revenue declined by 7%. However, for the first half-year, it increased by nearly 5%.

Passing to the main revenue lines, the trading services revenue was down 18% year-on-year. Clearing revenue was down 12% year-on-year, and it mainly due to the lower trading volumes in the gas forward market and renewable certificates market.

Other participants' fee revenue increased by 23%. The growth was driven by higher IRKiT, our clearing house, collateral system fees and a growing number of InfoEngine customers.

Finally, the register services revenue declined slightly by 1.4% year-on-year. It's key updates from the commodity market.

Thank you.

Marcin Rulnicki

Thank you, Mariusz. Let me take it from here and tell you a few comments about the operating expenses.

Consolidated operating expenses level was 99.8 million zlotys, the growth was 10.2% year-on-year. The personnel expenses were growing slightly slower than in previous quarters, the growth reported here was less than 6%.

However, we still have some sources of this growth. We see increase in salaries and also in the number of employees in Armenia.

That was a part of this project of expanding the business, the part of the agreement with the central bank was that we will also strengthen the teams and invest in the infrastructure, this is happening. This is also followed by a very dynamic growth in revenues, as we observed in one of the previous slides.

Also in the Warsaw Stock Exchange, we have growth in salaries and new employees, especially in IT teams. These costs were growing slightly slower in previous quarters also because of very intensive works on WATS development, and part of these personnel expenses were capitalized because of that.

We will see it when we go to CapEx slide. The other source of growth were external services, and in here, we have two three major reasons.

The first one are higher costs of IT-related services. Some of them are recurring and related to services that we buy in Software as a Service model to strengthen our IT infrastructure and security.

Some of them are related to projects which are run right now at the Warsaw Stock Exchange and subsidiaries, including implementation of new solutions, and this part will disappear with time. In other external services, we have increased costs of advisory expenses, and this is related mainly to Armenia and the expansion of the business there, depository business, first of all.

Also, the expenses related to market promotion and development. These costs grew as well in the second quarter of '26, also because of anniversaries that we had both in Armenia and in Warsaw in the same quarter, but these costs are non-recurring and they will not be repeated in the following quarters.

Depreciation and amortization goes down. This is another quarter in a row when we observe this trend, and this is due to finalized amortization of UTP licenses and also no amortization of solutions which were transferred to non-core companies, which were written off at the end of the year.

Anyway, the growth rate of our operating expenses at the level of 10.2% was, unfortunately, slightly higher than the growth rate of our revenue year-on-year, and this is the first quarter, after I think eight in a row, when we couldn't make this revenue change higher than the OpEx change. That's why also our cost-income ratio went up to 64.2%.

However, we are still within our strategic target of 65. In this slide, we are trying to understand the, let's say, underlying base operating expenses increase just to be able to refer to also our expected long-term business growth rate.

We identify costs which are associated with the growth, which is, let's say, extra or over the expectations. The important elements here are additional costs in Armenia, 3.4 million in Q2, and this is associated with this growth in revenues that we commented a few slides back; and also increase in transportation service costs, this is one of our subsidiaries where we offer logistics services, and the growth in business there linearly translates into higher operating expenses.

Excluding these elements, the underlying OpEx increase was 5.1 million in Q2, and this translates to 5.6% growth rate year-on-year. This is, let's say, much closer to our long-term ambition.

I mentioned CapEx, and when you look at capital expenditures in Q2 '26, they were 17.3 million zlotys, 7.1% up year-on-year, and the increase comes from WATS development expenses, yes, our proprietary trading system, which we're finalizing right now. 10.5 million capitalized, and this is including a portion of personal expenses contributing to the slower growth in this line in P&L.

In other classes of assets, we see small decline in Q2. In Q3, we still expect intensive works on WATS, there will be a high number in this position as well.

In Q4, this should go down, but at the same time, this is a quarter when we naturally have significant investments in equipment and other intangible assets. I'm trying to make a point that in the second half of the year, we expect that our capital expenditures should be higher than in the first half of the year.

Speaking about WATS, as the go-live date was postponed until 5th of October, and because of that, we had to revise our budget for this project. The current expectation is that by the go-live date, we will spend 173 million zlotys on the project.

21 million out of this amount is already expensed in P&L or will be expensed in P&L by the date of go-live, and the remaining 152 million is capitalized and will be capitalized, and we will start amortization of this after the go-live date in October. The slide about cash flow and liquidity.

We modified the presentation here a little bit, we refer to shorter periods and make the numbers more, let's say, comparable to what we present in the financial statements. Only the first 6 months of '26 compared to the first half of '25 in this slide.

Cash flow from operating activities went down a little bit year-over-year, and this is despite the growth in the profit line. This, of course, requires an explanation, and the explanation is that basically we have higher levels of trade and other receivables year-on-year, and we also had significant payments in the first half of '26 related to 2025 very good results, yes.

These payments refer to variable salaries for the team and also corporate income tax. Both these were, let's say, accrued for in 2025, but the payments were made in the first half of '26.

Therefore, the cash flow compared to the previous year was slightly worse because of these outflows. Free cash flow slightly up year-on-year because of lower CapEx.

The conversion of operating profit to cash flow is still good. However, if you compare these shorter periods, it went down year-on-year.

We had 470 million zlotys of net cash on our balance sheet at the end of June. This is, of course, before the payment of the dividend, which took place on 6th of August.

We paid out 143 million zlotys from 2025 profit to our shareholders, this was 3.4 zloty per share, 8% higher than the year before. I think this is pretty much it for details of the financial statements, and now we'll have a few comments about the outlook for the coming quarters.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Yes, sure. Thank you, Marcin.

Obviously, over next few weeks, for us the most important project is our proprietary trading system, WATS, which is scheduled to go live on 5th of October, following dress rehearsals. The first dress rehearsal starts tomorrow.

We are quite, I would say, positive following intensive testing in summer months, also conducted by external companies. However, of course, we will make the final go-live decision only after the confirmation that the market is ready and on our side that everything works well.

That's WATS. In terms of the guidance for the following quarter and quarters, looking at trading, as we already showed you in our presentation, we've had very strong months in terms of cash equity turnover growth in July and August, around 44% increase year-on-year.

As Mariusz said, on the energy front, a pickup, a recovery in electricity volumes, on the other hand, still quite subdued performance in gas segment due to geopolitical situation. In terms of OpEx, we see OpEx growth in the third quarter at the level not lower than in overall first half, with further acceleration in growth in fourth quarter on the back of increase in depreciation once we will launch WATS, and also we will recognize, at least partially, for some time, some of the costs previously capitalized, mainly the work of IT developers, in the P&L rather than in CapEx.

On the other hand, we believe that some, at least some of those costs, at least partially, will be offset by lower costs elsewhere, including non-core companies. CapEx, Marcin already mentioned that we expect high CapEx in second half.

Overall, I would say that here in Warsaw, we are quite upbeat about the outlook in longer term, especially related to the launch of the individual investment accounts, which has been already confirmed, the OKI accounts. They went through the whole legislative path, and they will enter into force and they'll launch on the 1st of January.

Also, we are very happy to see that another major index provider, S&P Dow Jones, recognized Poland as a developed market. We've been upgraded by S&P few weeks ago to developed market status.

This upgrade will be effective in September next year. A few words about OKI accounts, individual investment account.

Once again, for those who haven't heard about this account yet, it's a more or less copy-paste of a very successful account in Sweden, ISK, with a tax-free amount of investments up to 100,000 zlotys, roughly $25,000. However, there's no upper limit on how much investments you can keep in this account, but above 100,000, there'll be a tax, but on assets, not on capital gains.

In the first year, it will be around 0.85% of assets, and in the following years, it will be 90% times the reference rate of the central bank, which today would be around 0.7. We believe that definitely such tax incentive will attract retail investors to the market.

We already see that the number of brokerage accounts is sharply rising, and we believe that this growth will accelerate next year. Overall, the Ministry of Finance is estimating that the inflow of new capital to the Warsaw Stock Exchange are around 70-plus billion zlotys over next 15 years, around 5 billion a year.

We definitely believe that this are something which is achievable, and to capture this potential, we will also launch a educational and promotional campaign. OKI, definitely a breakthrough for Polish capital market and for attracting retail investors to the market.

However, as you see on this slide, the potential is still big, and we should continue to mobilize domestic capital. Currently, at the end of last year, the market cap of Polish companies listed in Warsaw was just 27% of GDP, one of the lowest levels in European Union.

The average in European Union is 70%. We estimate that to get us to 50% over next 5 years would require around 250 billion in new domestic capital, around 50 billion annually.

There's a lot still to be done, and the potential is still very significant. Thank you.

Łukasz Kucharski

Thank you very much for the presentation, and we will now move on to the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand.

We would also appreciate it if you could briefly introduce yourself before asking your question. I can see we already have the first question coming from Miguel.

Miguel, I'm unmuting you right now.

Miguel Dias

Hi, hello. Can you hear me?

Łukasz Kucharski

We can hear you. Please go ahead.

Thanks.

Miguel Dias

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Just for brief introduction, I'm the analyst covering Warsaw Stock Exchange with Wood & Company. For my first question, on average equity fee, should we think as the first half average as the new run rate or the new run rate is closer to the implied average fee for the second quarter?

How to think about these moving forward? Can you please just comment how the high-frequency traders' share evolved in July, in August?

Also, it would be interesting to hear if you can disclose the prospects of adding more of these algorithmic clients in the future, and if you think that the share that they represent of total volume will increase in the future and by how much.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

I'll perhaps answer the second part of the question, but for the first, I will ask Marcin to comment.

Marcin Rulnicki

Okay. Actually, I believe this is related, because we have no, let's say, changes in our price list here.

It's just the result of the changing structure of the turnover. If we assume that there will be more liquidity providers in the overall turnover, they, of course, benefit from preferential fees, and the average fee will go down.

However, as long as this is about the additional turnover and our revenue goes up, I think it's not such a bad thing at the end, yes. If we should expect additional algorithmic traders, I'll pass to Tomasz to comment about this.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Yes. Exactly.

First, what you've seen in the first half also is that we've added one one one major player in this space to our client and liquidity provider list. Once we launch the new trading system and we'll have higher capacity that we could offer, definitely we will have more efforts to attract new members to the exchange, new brokers, but also new liquidity providers.

The share, if we are successful, the share of the liquidity providers in our turnover will increase, and as results also the average fee. That said, obviously we expect the total turnover to increase as well, the net result on our revenues obviously will be positive, or should be positive.

Miguel Dias

Sure. That's understood.

Is there any number that you have in your head about what would you expect the share of these liquidity providers to be in the total turnover? Right now, it's 36% as second quarter 2026.

Expectations will be towards 40% or?

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Let me say that, I would say, the major liquidity providers already present and active on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. We would not expect here a very significant increase.

I would say that your guess around 40% is a good guess in medium term.

Miguel Dias

Okay. Understood.

Thank you. On other revenues, could you please provide some color here, how much of the increase is recurring versus non-recurring, and what would you see as sort of the new run rate?

Also logistics and tech, which are non-core business, are these business likely to grow in the future?

Marcin Rulnicki

Let me take this one. Logistics and tech are presented in this line.

In logistics, we had an increase in the business scale in Q2. However, in the longer run, we have a strategy to focus on higher-profit contracts here in this company.

We are not really chasing the revenue at any cost. We will be focusing on increasing the profitability.

Therefore, I would expect in the coming quarters the revenue from logistics can go down compared to what we saw in Q2. With tech, we have a small recurring growth in revenue because of selling the licenses for our Stork system, but this is not significant in terms of values.

Other events which you can find here are different revenues from non-core activities like, for example, settling partnerships in different events or, as I said, renting space in the Warsaw Stock Exchange building. I would say there is no reason for a recurring growth in this line, at least nothing significant to happen there.

I would say Q2 was exceptional.

Miguel Dias

Got it. Right.

Understood. Now on costs, if I may.

Maybe the most painful part, but you guide for at least 11% OpEx growth in the third quarter and faster growth in fourth quarter. Probably OpEx growth for the year lands between 11% and 12% for the full year, right?

This is double the upper bound of the range you've committed to during the 2025-2027 strategy, right? Given that also the increase in previous year was about 10%, it means that you will likely end up 2026 already above the upper range of the implied target of the strategy.

The question is, how to think about 2027 cost growth? You'll have three additional quarters of comparatively higher depreciation and amortization, probably.

Staff costs are also going to increase as some of these costs will be capitalized until now. Is there anything offsetting these increases in 2027?

Do you still stand by the guidance that OpEx is expected to grow 4% to 6% annually? Okay.

Marcin Rulnicki

This is correct that working on our key strategic directions in autumn 2024, we expected 4% to 6% annual growth in the operating expenses. Please remember that at the same time, we were also assuming 6% to 8% growth in revenues and 8% to 12% growth in EBITDA.

Actually, we are beating all these measures, and on EBITDA, let's say, last year we were almost 38% up, yes. I would say this set of KPIs should be treated combined, yes.

If we see extraordinary growth in our revenues, we also expect that certain costs may follow, and that's why we are preparing this slide that Łukasz presented, or reminded to us right now. We are indicating these elements of business growth which exceeded our expectations, and costs related to them, yes.

Once we exclude these, you can see that the underlying OpEx increase would be certainly lower. This is how we look at it, okay.

We are not really going to, let's say, revise the strategic, let's say, KPIs at the moment, because we believe that combined, we are still exceeding the expectations. However, we'll be working on the new strategy in 2027, and we will also come up with new KPIs, new targets, together with the strategy next year.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Perhaps I'll add on this that we have also guided in our strategy for the cost-income ratio of 65%. Year-to-date in the first half, it was 60%.

In the second quarter, slightly higher, 64%. This is something that we'll try to keep.

It will be not easy in the second half of the year, mainly due to those intensification of works and costs related to the WATS, and then depreciation of the WATS, but definitely we will look for cost savings already towards the end of this year and for next year. One of the obvious cost saving is basically reducing the scope of activity by logistics.

Here in this presentation appendix, the presentation that we show on our website, you can find Let us move perhaps, Łukasz, to the slide on non-core, that we've been searching for strategic investor for logistics, but we didn't find any. Now we will focus on increasing profitability of this company, which means significantly reducing low-profitable revenues, and most of those revenues have first margin of around 5%.

We will eliminate those revenues, and also at the same time, cost base related to those revenues, and this will help us to, at least optically, to offset some of those costs related to WATS launch. This is to show that we have some tools to address this increase in depreciation from WATS.

Obviously, higher depreciation and start of WATS also means lower CapEx. In terms of free cash flow, we should generate the same or higher free cash flow compared to when we worked on the system.

Marcin Rulnicki

Yeah. Thank you, Tomasz.

This is a very good addition to this. We will be looking for savings in non-core businesses, but the other, let's say, potential source of savings are costs of the infrastructure associated with UTP and so the old system will be resigning from.

In here, we also expect cost savings from already in 2027. We should see the difference in maintenance costs which we still incur in 2026.

Also, we will be slowly resigning from the infrastructure for data transfer, data maintenance. There will be certain, let's say, elements which will be able to use to offset the growth in amortization and other costs related to WATS.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Yeah. Once again, something that WATS will enable us to increase our revenues, to increase the turnover of the market.

Some of you may remember last year in April, we had to stop trading for a few hours in the afternoon because we reached our full capacity, or were at the risk to reach our full capacity. The new system will have five times higher capacity than the old system, and in terms of performance and latency, will be significantly more efficient than the current system.

Miguel Dias

Okay. Thank you for the call.

Just a quick question on commodities. Regarding gas, I'm cautious just to assume that an end-of-the-year catch-up here, but I would assume at least some rebound, even though probably we'll still end up below fourth quarter '25 volumes.

Just I'm curious to know how you are thinking about this.

Mariusz Buraczyński

Okay. It's a question to me.

I can confirm, in general, your assumptions, but it will be very difficult for 2026 to be better than 2025 in the gas market. We should remember that when we compare the results, additionally we must remember that the base in the last year was very high.

The unstable geopolitical situation continues to create challenges for this market. Negative correlation between the prices and volume and turnover is still present.

For Polish economy, for Poland, gas plays a crucial role, especially for energy sector. We still see the shift from the coal-fired plants and gas-fired generation is moving forward.

It remains still the key pillars of the energy transition. From TGE perspective, growing gas consumption in Poland, launching new gas-fired power plants should continue the support of activity in coming months.

Looking ahead, I'm remain positive about the gas market, I think.

Miguel Dias

Got it. That was super helpful.

Thank you. On OKI, if I may.

I don't know if we have time, but how are you thinking about the eventual flow-through into Polish equities? You have this slide that you might expect, I don't remember it, but you're saying 50 billion that you would need to reach 50% GDP.

What proportion do you ultimately think it's funneled through ETFs, how much is retail client just trading spot equities? Also, how are you thinking about second-order effects?

Where is your head at, thinking specifically about derivatives and information services revenue? Maybe there's something else that I'm not considering, but it would be pretty helpful to understand how you're thinking about this.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Yes. Basically, obviously, we believe that OKI will help to attract retail investors, and retail investors, it's liquidity.

This is what we can build on. Those estimates which are presented by the Finance Ministry, such estimates also were consulted with us, and we believe that a 5 million a year billion a year to equities, this also what we see right now in some of the forecasts from local brokers.

Also, we believe that important effect of OKI will be that the mutual funds will invest more in local equities. Overall, the share of mutual funds in local equities is one of the lowest in Europe, at only 10%.

Definitely, we expect more vibrant market going forward. OKI, you cannot invest in derivatives in OKI, not on CFDs, only non-complex instruments.

We don't really expect much of the impact on our derivatives just from OKI, but definitely we work on other derivative segments. We are working right now on launching, for example, mini futures on some of our indices.

Mini futures would lower deposit margin.

Miguel Dias

No, it's clear that you cannot invest in derivatives through the OKI account. Increased activity and liquidity, it's also something that draws attention of big funds in the US and abroad, right?

Tomasz Bardziłowski

So We definitely see a scope for a higher activity of liquidity providers in derivatives.

Miguel Dias

Okay. That's very helpful.

Thank you so much. I see that there's someone else that wants to ask a question, I'll just leave space for that.

Thank you so much.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Thank you.

Łukasz Kucharski

Yes. Thank you, Miguel.

We have another question coming from Emmanuel. Emmanuel, the line is yours.

Emmanuel de Figueiredo

Thank you. I'm Emmanuel from LBV Asset Management.

I'm an analyst-cum-fund manager and been a shareholder for some time by the funds. Just two questions for me.

The first one is on the reclassification to developed market from September 2027, I believe. What color can you give in terms of likely flow of funds?

Is it going to be a beneficial impact or negative impact, if you can just put any color on that? The second question, which is, I suppose, more short-term, is what is the IPO prospect for the next few months?

Thank you.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

Yeah. In terms of this reclassification, of course, we are quite happy and satisfied with this news.

We point out that not really that much assets which invest in our region and Poland related to S&P Dow Jones. Overall, we would not expect any major effects.

This is, on the other hand, something which definitely raises our profile among global investors. As you may know, the highest share of assets which invest in our region and Poland are following MSCI, and we do not expect to be included in the watch for the upgrade by MSCI over next few years.

Overall, would not expect any major effect next year other than better reputation of our market for its quality and performance. Your next question was about IPOs.

We had 10 IPOs so far this year, or transfers, some of them were transfers from our alternative market. There will be some small, not major transactions by year-end, as we hear from our brokers, but nothing really significant.

On the other hand, we continue to put lots of efforts to attract new issuers. A third edition of our IPO Academy starts over next few weeks, and we hear that all the places already filled, and we had the first IPO of a company which was an member of the first cohort of our IPO Academy done.

Definitely, overall we see a, I would say, more noise, positive noise, about the Warsaw Stock Exchange in Poland, much more requests, much more questions. Definitely, we would expect that going forward, there'll be more transactions, more IPOs, also from a fast-growing private equity and venture capital market, which, as I said, is developing quite fast in Poland.

Emmanuel de Figueiredo

Okay. May I just ask a follow-up on your first answer?

I believe Poland has a bit of a darling status with emerging markets, will emerging markets be forced sellers of Polish equities with this reclassification?

Tomasz Bardziłowski

We can provide you with our estimates about how much assets are right now following the S&P Dow Jones, but we're not talking about billions of dollars, rather a couple of hundred millions in active money. It's nothing really very significant for us.

As a result of this upgrade, our share in S&P Emerging Markets was 1.27%, and in S&P Developed Markets will be 0.15%. A significant decline in terms of a share, but larger pool of assets, especially passive assets.

We'd expect a net passive inflow and net active outflow as results of this particular upgrade. As I said, for us by far MSCI is the most important.

You may recall that in 2018, we've been upgraded by FTSE Russell to developed. It didn't really have a major immediate flow impact on our market.

Emmanuel de Figueiredo

Thank you.

Tomasz Bardziłowski

However, MSCI, any upgrade by MSCI would have a massive impact. For now, we say that we need few more years to think about that and to get ready for that.

It's nothing over next few years.

Łukasz Kucharski

Thank you, Emmanuel. Are there any further questions?

I don't see any. As there are no further ones, we would like to thank you for joining us today.

Maybe before we conclude, let me show you the IR calendar of ours. Over the coming months, we will be participating in a number of investor events, including ones in Munich, Stockholm in Sweden, New York, and Prague.

If you are planning to attend any of these conferences, please let us know. Should you have any follow-up questions, of course, please contact us at Investor Relations team here at Warsaw Stock Exchange.

Thank you once again for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again during the next results conference call in November.

Thank you and have a good day.