Talgo SA

Talgo SA

2.37
EUR
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387.63MMarket Cap
Feb 26Next Earn

Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 14, 2025

Operator

Hello, good morning everyone. Thank you very much for joining this call with aim to present the results of the third quarter 2025.

Gonzalo Urquijo, CEO, will go through the presentation that was released yesterday. At the end of the call, we will open a Q&A session, as we usually do.

When you want to participate in the Q&A, please raise your hand in Teams, and we will enable the microphone. Thank you, all.

Go ahead, Gonzalo.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Thank you, Javier, and good morning to all. Welcome to the call once more.

Just to reminder, in third quarter, we do first quarter, we only present down to EBITDA and we don't present the balance sheet. Can we go to the first page, please?

Okay. I'll start with safety.

You can see there accident frequency rate is 5.54, which is better than the previous quarter, and severity has also made progress. We are doing progress.

We've done tremendous effort on that, which is very important, and especially with our subcontractors, and we're doing better. Now, if I go to this executive summary, first of all, we see it in the following page, we will talk about the extraordinary shareholders' meeting, where we are in terms of the change in shareholdingship.

The financial new transaction basically has three points. The first one, which will all be submitted to the General Shareholders' Meeting that will take place the 12th of December.

Now, the basic points of that General Shareholders' Meeting is the capital increase done by and fully subscribed by SEPI. The second one would be the first issuance of convertible bonds, that is 30 million.

The increase in capital was 45, this would be 30. The third would be the convertible bonds issued for the Basque investors.

That is where we are, and those will be the main points. Second, in terms of business performance, I think it's been a good quarter in the sense that we have seen an increase in the revenues on one side, and especially I think we've had two key achievements.

The first one has been the delivery of the trains to DB, and we will see after, and the same to Denmark. Now, as we do believe and we hope that in this quarter, we will be able to close at least one more commercial transaction.

Third, financial results, you see we are 443. Now, if we take away the German impact, the DB impact, it would be around 480.

In terms of EBITDA, we are at -3.3. We're coming from -16, and if we wouldn't have the German impact, we would be at 36.6 positive, of course.

In terms of the outlook, we'll see it in the last page, that it hasn't changed since the last one we informed and we showed to you a few weeks ago. In the next page, let's go through the General Shareholders' Meeting.

As I said, it'll take place the 12th of December. The idea is the following: the first part will be the equity reinforcement, or we are reinforcing our structure of capital.

That comes through three ways. One of the routes is the increase in capital for 45 million, and SEPI, that is this government investment vehicle, will take 7.87% of the capital.

Additionally to that, SEPI will also take 30 million in convertible bonds. Last and not least, the Basque investors will do a convertible bond issue, we will have two of 75 million.

Now, these investors are different from the ones that are buying the shares to Trilantic because we have Ekarpen private equity, who is part of this investors, who is not part in the acquisition of the shares to Trilantic or Pegaso. In that sense, it is 150 million put into 105 in convertible bonds and 45 in increase in capital, we will reinforce our equity in 150 million.

Of course, that will bring us the cash that will be out of those 150 million. The second point is the financial strengthening.

That is, what we've done is benefiting from this situation, we at the end negotiated with all the banks in terms of increasing our funding capacity. It has increased.

We have a tranche that is 650 million, coming from around 350, that is syndicated loan that goes up to maturing in 2031. Now, this is covered by CESCE in 60% of it.

We have a second tranche that is not covered by CESCE. That is our revolving credit line of 120 million for 5 years.

I insist this one has no CESCE coverage. Last and not least, we have a new line of bonds.

We already have bonds up to 1.2 billion. This is 500 addition bonds, and it's covered in a 75% by CESCE, okay, maturing in 2031 also.

Additionally to that, the board of directors, as of today, we are six, but we have maximum members of 10, and the idea is proposing to EGM reducing it to a maximum of eight members. Why?

Because we think a company of the size of ours, it makes much more sense in terms of governance to reduce it from 10 to eight. Additionally to that, we're also sending a message of cost reduction clearly.

Next page. In terms of the business performance, our backlog is around 4.8 billion.

Now, if we do close at least one more deal, we will get closer to the 7 billion, but we're still waiting. Basically, we have two deals there.

One of them is I don't know, we'll see if Flix will agree to increase from the amount they have today to 65, so that's from 35 to 65. That is where we are.

Additionally to that, the latest news we have on Saudi Arabia is very positive, we do think that should come before the end of the year. Now, second point is clearly we have two trains already accepted in Germany.

We hope to have two more by the end of the year, so that would be four. In December, they will start working with passengers.

They're already doing tryouts with passengers, but it's not commercial passengers, so that should be working by December. Additionally to that, we already have three trains in Denmark.

We have to deliver four more by the end of the year, and they're already with passengers. They're very happy with them, and they're working very well.

First, they've started with internal routes in Denmark, and now it's doing Copenhagen-Hamburg. As a third point to this page, we hope to finish the settlement agreement with DB in the following weeks, as we already told you in the last investor call.

That's working in progress, I would say. Now, in terms of the market, the market remains strong.

We see it strong. We have a lot of deals in North Europe, in East Europe, and also Middle East and Africa.

Additionally to that, we are, as always, being extremely cautious and very strict in what we accept as deals. All of them have to have indexation as for number one, positive cash flow, reduced liabilities in terms of penalties and similar things, and we're being extremely strict with it.

Next page. In terms of revenues, as you can see, we were last year 497.8, this year we are 443.1.

Now, we adjust to DB, that is +37.5, it would be around 480. That's where we would be.

We have seen a good growth in the last three months, which we are very satisfied. We think things are coming we're doing better industrially, clearly.

In terms of EBITDA, we're at -3.3. We are coming from -16, if you remember, we have had EBITDA.

If we wouldn't have the German impact, in this case, it should be +40 million, we would be at 36.6. That's where we would be.

Last page, the outlook. In the outlook, as you can see, it should remain constant to what we presented a few weeks ago, that is the order intake at 2.3 billion.

In terms of revenues between 560 590, if we add the 37 million of the DB adjustment, it would be between 600 and 630. In terms of financial debt, it's between 350 and 400, but that is taking into account that we have already done the cashing of the equity and the convertible bonds, clearly.

Okay. Now, we believe this transaction, everything goes well in the shareholders' meeting, that is the 12th, and in the following week, everything should be aligned in order to close the deal, and that is where we are.

The banks have given all of us a green light, and that's where we are as of today. Now, if you agree, we thank you very much once more for joining, and we're open to questions and answers.

Thank you very much. I see there Iñigo Recio.

Operator

Just a second. Next question coming from Iñigo Recio from GVC.

Iñigo, please go ahead.

Iñigo Recio

Hello, can you hear me?

Gonzalo Urquijo

Yes.

Iñigo Recio

I hear you. Thank you, Gonzalo.

Good morning. Do you plan to present any business plan to investors, for example, in 2026?

The second question, is there any news regarding Renfe's penalty? Thank you very much.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Okay. Thank you very much, Iñigo, as always for your questions and your interest.

In terms of the business plan, I have to tell you, we have our internal projections more than a business plan. That is a fact, but for the moment, we're very reluctant to show that to the market, basically for two reasons: one of them is at the end that is giving a guidance for the next years and that for us is a matter of concern; and second, we are giving tips to our competitors, so that's why we are reluctant to present it.

As of today, our idea is not to present it, but we'll have to review it and rethink this point. That's for your first question, Iñigo.

For your second question, in terms of Renfe, we have no further news. As we have a penalty that we put through our P&L last year, it's 116 million.

We thought we don't have to pay that penalty because it went through COVID, there was force majeure, we had all the raw materials. Additionally to that, we had other elements, like we didn't have enough drivers for the trains, we didn't have enough trains, availability to use the tracks in order to do the tryouts and the testing.

That is where we are, but Renfe disagreed with us, they should take it to court. Additionally, they haven't taken it as of today to court.

There's nothing new. In terms of the payments, they have not paid us the last 22, what we have if we do what we call la recepción provisional, the provisional reception of the trains, another 60 million.

Now, that is pending, I would say, and we've already taken Renfe to court in the sense we believe he cannot use pending bills of 106 to net it with the penalties. It'll have to be a judge and a court who tell us if we have to pay or not.

Nothing new on that front, and we are where we were a couple of weeks ago, Iñigo.

Iñigo Recio

Thank you.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Gracias a ti. I think we have another one there.

Operator

Yes. Next question coming from Jaime Escribano Santander.

Jaime, please go ahead.

Jaime Escribano

Hi, good afternoon. I'm sorry because I'm late.

Hopefully, this is not been asked. Regarding margins, can you provide us a little bit of visibility on what could be a recurrent margin in order to estimate between '26 to 2030, gross figures, because it's been a little bit lumpy because of many reasons this year.

I'm a little bit lost on what should I assume going forward. The second question is regarding the Deutsche Bahn negotiation, if you can give us an update on where do you stand and what are the main outcomes from this negotiation?

Thank you.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Thanks you very much, Jaime, for your questions. I'll start by the second one.

In terms of the DB negotiation, I can tell you we are where we left it in the sense that we are in that negotiation. At the negotiation, you know we had an LOI signed, and we are negotiating on all those points in order to close them.

That is the reduction from 79 to 60, and already announced, there's other elements to that. There's a new maintenance contract, there's a reduction in terms of penalties to 1/5, additionally there's other elements that we're still in the closure of that in order to have the final agreement, okay, Jaime?

That's where we are, and I hope it finishes in the following weeks, clearly. As for your first question, it's a difficult one because I would link it with Iñigo's question.

You would have the business plan. That would be giving you guidance from '26 to '30.

I do think there's some elements that for your model that should be taken into account. On one side, on the side of the income, we do see that there'll be new contracts coming in and we already have new contracts.

Those contracts have a better margin on one side. In those contracts, we've been extremely strict in terms of indexation, positive cash flow, in terms of reduction of liabilities.

That going forward, in terms of the income, you should see more. Additionally to that, we should see more at the end turnover, and we're working hard on that.

I'll come back to it, in order to increase our revenues clearly and have more turnover. The new projects should have different margins, and we would be finishing the past ones, which they still have the burdens of the past.

Now, other points which I think are very important, industrially, I think we are doing a big work in optimization of our manufacturing, in increase the production capability that we have in our facilities. Additionally to that, we're working hard and we work hard on two platforms: it's the platform of the Avril, of the high speed, and the platform of the German one, the 230, in that sense.

We do believe that becomes recurrent. If at first it was DB, then it was Denmark, now it has been Flix.

Now we have a lot of interest for those two platforms. At the end, that should reduce our risk and many of the costs that were done to create these two new platforms have already been done, we do believe that should improve our EBITDA clearly going forward.

Our EBITDA should improve. As in terms of maintenance, it's a good business, safe business, a recurrent business, in that sense, we're doing big work in order not to lose margins there and be efficient also through an optimization program.

I can only tell you that we should see it improving going forward, clearly. Our road would be then much less bumpy, and I think we're basically getting over the bumps.

Jaime Escribano

Okay? Thank you very much, Gonzalo.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Gracias. Further questions?

Operator

Just as a reminder, if any of you want to make a question, please raise your hand through the Teams and we will enable the microphone. Any further ones, Javier, already?

It seems that there are no additional questions. If that is the case, if after the call there's any additional thing to discuss, we will, as always, we'll be open through the IR channel to answer any further question.

Thank you very much.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Good day to all.

Operator

Thank you, Gonzalo.

Gonzalo Urquijo

Thank you very much to all. Have a good day, and thank you very much for attending.

We count on you. Thank you.

Bye. Good day.