Operator
Hello and welcome to Globe Life Inc. Second Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call.
James is Jim, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note today's conference is being recorded.
And during our presentation, all participants will remain in a muted or listen only mode to prevent any background noise. After today's prepared remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session, and instructions on how to participate will be shared at that time.
It is now my pleasure to hand over to your host, Stephen Mota, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference.
Stephen Mota
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Joining the call today are Frank Svoboda and James Matthew Darden, our Co-Chief Executive Officers. Thomas Peter Kalmbach, our chief financial officer Michael Clay Majors, our chief strategy officer and Robert Brian Mitchell, our General Counsel.
Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward looking statements that are provided for general guidance purposes only. Accordingly, please refer to our earnings release, 30-Ks, any subsequent Forms 10 Q on file with the SEC.
Some of our comments may also contain non GAAP measures. See our earnings release and website for a discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures.
I will now turn the call over to Frank.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, net income was $288 million or $3.65 per share, an increase of 20% over the $3.05 per share a year ago.
Net operating income for the quarter was $285 million or $3.61 per share, an increase of 10% over the $3.27 per share a year ago. We are pleased to see continued strong results in our operations.
As we have said many times over the years, our business model is resilient. and able to generate earnings growth regardless of the economic environment.
As clearly demonstrated by Globe Life having produced double digit net operating income per share growth in 8 of the last 9 quarters. On a GAAP reported basis, return on equity through June 30 is 18.4%.
And book value per share is $70.18 Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI, return on equity is 14.3%. And book value per share as of June 30 is $100.04.
Up 11% from a year ago. Now in our insurance operations, Total premium revenue in the second quarter grew 7% over the year ago quarter.
For the full year, we expect total premium revenue growth to be in the range of 6.5% to 7%. Life premium revenue for the second quarter increased 3% from the year ago quarter to $861 million Life underwriting margin was $359 million up 6% from a year ago.
For the year, we expect life premium revenue to grow between 2.5% to 3%. As a percent of premium, life underwriting margin was 42%.
Up from 41% in the year ago quarter. While we anticipate life underwriting margin to be between 43% to 45% for full year 2026, We do expect it to be over 50% in the third quarter, due to the anticipated impact of assumption updates.
And between 41% to 42% for the fourth quarter. Tom will discuss this more in his comments.
In health insurance, premium revenue grew 16% to $437 million and health underwriting margin was up 1% to $99 million For the year, we expect health premium revenue to grow in the range of 14% to 16%, This is due to premium rate increases on our Medicare supplement business as well as strong sales in both our United American and Family Heritage divisions. As a percent of premium, health underwriting margin was approximately 23% in the second quarter down from 26% in the year ago quarter.
For the full year, we anticipate health underwriting margins to be between 23% to 27%. Administrative expenses were $91 million for the quarter.
An increase of approximately 6% over the second quarter of 25. As a percent of premium, administrative expenses were 7%.
For the full year, we expect administrative expenses to be approximately 7.3% of premium consistent with 2025. As we mentioned last quarter, over the long term, we anticipate that expanded implementation of AI applications across the company will help lower this ratio.
We believe Globe Life is positively positioned to benefit from AI due to the high volume nature of our business. Including the number of applications received and policies issued.
Calls received by our customer service representatives, and the number of claims reviewed and paid. Of course, these AI driven improvements will not be limited to administrative expenses.
We also expect enterprise wide benefits. Including those that will drive sales growth by helping our distribution operate more efficiently and effectively, and those that improve our underwriting and other sales support process.
I will now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the second quarter marketing operations.
James Matthew Darden
Thank you, Frank. Now I will discuss the trends at each distribution starting with our exclusive agencies.
At American Income Life, life premiums were up 5% over the year ago quarter to $466 million and the life underwriting margin was up 4% to $214 million Net life sales were $95 million down 2% from a year ago, due primarily to a decline in the agent count. The average producing agent count for the second quarter was 11.4 thousand.
Down 7% from a year ago. But this is up 3% since the end of the first quarter.
As a reminder, compensation adjustments designed to improve agent recruiting new agent retention were implemented at the beginning of the second quarter. As we indicated on the previous earnings call, these compensation changes are expected to have a positive impact on agent count in the second half of this year.
Am pleased to see early signs of improvement with this sequential growth in agent count during the second quarter. As I have said many times, agent count growth is a precursor to sales growth.
During the second half of the year, we expect to see mid single digit growth in both agent count and life sales at American Income. At Liberty National, the life premiums were up 3% over the year ago quarter to $101 million and the life underwriting margin was up 10% to $37 million Net life sales were $26 million up 6% from the year ago quarter due primarily to agent count growth Net health sales were $7 million down 15% from the year ago quarter as more emphasis has been placed on Life business in recent periods.
We are currently implementing changes to the sales presentation and place additional emphasis on health sales. Average producing agent count for the second quarter was 4.19 thousand.
Up 8% from a year ago. And I am excited about the strong life sales and agent count growth we are seeing, and I am confident that this momentum will carry forward.
At Family Heritage, here the health premiums increased 9% over the year ago quarter to $126 million and the health underwriting margin increased 10% to $45 million Net health sales were up 4% to $31 million driven by an increased agent count. The average producing agent count for the second quarter was 1.61 thousand.
Up 7% from a year ago. The ongoing emphasis on developing agency middle management has really solidified this division's performance.
I believe Family Heritage is well positioned for sustainable growth going forward. Now in our direct to consumer division at Globe Life, the life premiums were down 1% over the year ago quarter to $244 million while life underwriting margin increased 10% to $76 million Net life sales were $27 million down 15% from the year ago quarter.
Now DTC is in a transition period due to a shift in the way consumers search online for goods and services including life insurance. The increased utilization of AI by consumers has resulted in a reduction in paid search volume from Internet marketing.
We have initiatives underway to adapt to this change and position digital content to be visible to and be easily interpreted by AI assistants. This shift is similar in many ways to the initial move to digital marketing away from direct mail many years ago when consumers began to utilize the Internet.
And I am confident that DTC will successfully make this transition as we continue to meet the consumer where they want to be met. In addition, as we have discussed before, the value of this division extends well beyond DTC sales due to the support it provides to our agencies.
And we still anticipate that we will meet agency demands by generating in excess of 1 million leads this year. We have seen improved conversion of the direct to consumer leads shared with our agencies which has also led to margin improvement.
And we will continue to optimize margin as we navigate changes in online advertising. Now on to United American, Here, the health premiums increased 29% over the year ago quarter, to $211 million and the Health underwriting margin was $11 million down $1 million from the year ago quarter.
Net health sales were $28 million a 10% increase over the year ago quarter. Sales continue to be very strong in the Medicare Supplement business, and due primarily to tailwinds from the high volume of people turning 65 movement of Medicare beneficiaries from Medicare Advantage to Medicare Supplement, and the rate increases implemented during the second quarter.
Once again, I would note that we do not market Medicare Advantage plans. As a reminder, the UA general agency includes both individual and group business.
The decline in health margin as a percent of premium from the year ago quarter at UA, was primarily driven by the group business. As you may recall, we announced the acquisition of Every Health a few years ago.
Evri is included in the United American division as they market group health insurance through brokers. While EVRI is immaterial to our overall financial results, they have generated enough recent sales activity to have an impact on UA Health margin trends.
For the full year 2026, we expect every sales to be approximately $50 million As a start up, they do not yet have the scale to meet our target margins but we anticipate, as they continue to grow sales, and thus premium, they will ultimately contribute to UA Health margins as they achieve scale and generate a credible block of business. Excluding the impact of EVRI, the UA Health margin as a percent of premium would have been approximately 9% in the second quarter.
Now I would like to move on to projections And based on what we have seen for the first half of 2026, As I mentioned earlier, we expect to see mid single digit growth at AIL during the second half of the year for both average producing agent count and live sales. Liberty National and Family Heritage, we expect the average producing agent count growth to be low double digits for the full year 2026.
Net life sales at Liberty National and direct to consumer for the full year 2026 are expected to be as follows: Liberty National, low double digit growth direct to consumer, a single digit decline Net health sales for the full year 2026 are expected to be as follows. Liberty National, slightly down Family Heritage, low double digit growth and United American, 30% to 35% growth.
I will now turn the call back to Frank.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Thanks, Matt. We will now turn to the investment operations.
Excess investment income, which we define as net investment income less only required interest, was $38 million up 10% from the year ago quarter. Net investment income was $294 million up 4% while average invested assets grew 2%.
Required interest grew 3%, slightly lower than the 4% growth in average policy liabilities, over the year ago quarter. For the full year, we expect both net investment income and required interest to grow around 4% resulting in excess investment income growth of approximately 7%.
Now regarding our investment yield. In the second quarter, we invested $399 million in fixed maturities.
Primarily in the industrial and utility sectors. These investments were at an average yield of 6.27%, an average rating of A, and an average life of 36 years.
We also invested approximately $91 million in commercial mortgage loans and other long term investments with debt like characteristics. These nonfixed maturity investments are expected to produce additional cash yield over our fixed maturity investments while still being in line with our overall conservative investment philosophy.
In the second quarter, the earned yield on our total long term invested assets which include our fixed maturity, commercial mortgage loan, and other long term nonfixed maturity investments. Was 5.51%.
For the full year, we expect the average yield earned on our total long term investments will be approximately 5.5%. For the fixed maturity portfolio, we anticipate the earned yield for 2026 will be around 5.31%.
While we do own some floating rate investments, they are well matched with floating rate liabilities on the balance sheet. Now regarding the investment portfolio.
Invested assets are $22.1 billion including $19.3 billion of fixed maturities and amortized cost. Of the fixed maturities, dollars 18.8 billion are investment grade with an average rating of A.
Overall, the total fixed maturity portfolio is rated A minus. Same as a year ago.
Of our total investment portfolio, only 1% is in senior direct lending and asset based asset based finance combined. And another approximately 1% is in traditional private placements.
Our fixed maturity investment portfolio has a net unrealized loss position of $1.4 billion due to current market rates being higher than the book yield on our holding. As we have historically noted, we are not concerned by the unrealized loss position as it is mostly interest rate driven and currently relates entirely to bonds with maturities of that extend beyond 10 years.
We have the intent and, more importantly, the ability to hold our investments to maturity. Bonds rated BBB comprise 41% of the fixed maturity portfolio, compared to 44% from the year ago quarter.
This percentage is at its lowest level since 2003. As we have discussed on prior calls, the BBB securities we acquired generally provide the best risk adjusted capital adjusted returns due in part to our ability to hold securities to maturity regardless of fluctuations in interest rates or equity markets.
That said, our allocation of BBB rated bonds has declined over the past few years, as we have found better risk adjusted, capital adjusted value in higher rated bonds given the narrowing of corporate spreads. While the concentration of a BBB bond might still be a little higher than some of our peers, remember that we have little or no exposure to other higher risk assets.
Below investment grade bonds remain near historical lows at $516 million compared to $5.00 $3 million a year ago. The percentage of the low investment grade bonds of total fixed maturities is just 2.7%.
Consistent with year end 2025. The total exposure to both BBB and below investment grade securities as a percent of our total equity excluding AOCI, is at its lowest level in over 25 years.
Due to the long duration of our fixed maturity liabilities, we predominantly invest in long dated assets. As such, a critical and foundational part of our investment philosophy is to invest in entities can survive through multiple economic cycles.
While there may be uncertainty as to where The US economy is headed, we are well positioned to withstand a significant economic downturn due to holding historically low percentages of invested assets in BBB and below investment grade bond as a percentage of equity. In addition, we have very strong underwriting profits and long dated liabilities.
So we will not be forced to sell bonds in order to pay claims. With respect to our anticipated investment acquisitions for the remainder of the year, at the midpoint of our guidance, we assume investment of approximately $550 to $600 million in fixed maturities at an average yield between 6% to 6.1%.
Including the expected investments in commercial mortgage loans and other long term investments with debt like characteristics, we expect to invest approximately 7 to $800 million across all asset classes at an average yield of 6.3% to 6.5%. Now I will turn the call over to Tom for his comments on capital and liquidity.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Thanks, Frank. First, I will spend a few minutes discussing our share repurchase program available liquidity, and capital position.
During the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 1.1 million shares of Globe Life, Inc. Common stock for a total cost of $175 million at an average share price of $154.28 including shareholder dividend payments of $25 million the company returned approximately $200 million to shareholders during the second quarter of 26.
At the end of the second quarter, the company amended its term loan, increasing the principal balance from $250 million to $450 million an increase of $200 million. And extended the maturity date to June 2029.
Additionally, the company's credit facility was amended at the end of the second quarter, to extend its maturity date. To June 2031.
The term loan in the credit facility provide additional sources of parent liquidity. We intend to use the excess proceeds from the term loan for general corporate purposes including reducing commercial paper balances, increasing share repurchases, and other parent needs.
The parent ended the quarter with liquid assets of approximately $110 million We anticipate ending the year with liquid assets in the top end of our target range of $50 million to $60 million The parent will also generate excess cash flows over the remainder 2026. The parent company's excess cash flow, as we define it, results primarily from dividends received by the parent from its subsidiaries less the interest paid on debt and is available to return to its shareholders in the form of dividends and through share repurchases.
Utilizing a portion of the parent's liquid assets at the end of the quarter, the excess proceeds from our increased term loan and excess cash flow expect to be generated for the second half of the year we anticipate the parent will return to shareholders over the remainder of the year approximately $250 million to $270 million in the form of dividends and share repurchases after meeting the anticipated needs of the parent. We continue to invest in our growth through making investments in new business, technology, and insurance operations.
It should be noted that the cash received by the parent company from our insurance operations is after our subsidiaries have made these substantial investments and acquired new long duration assets to fund their future cash needs. We will continue to use our cash as efficiently as possible.
We still believe that share repurchases provide the best return or yield to our shareholders over other available alternatives. Thus, we anticipate share repurchases will continue to be the primary use of parent's excess cash flow after the payment of shareholder dividends.
For the full year, we anticipate distributing approximately $95 million to our shareholders in the form of dividend payments. In addition, we anticipate share repurchases will be in the range of $670 million to $700 million This reflects a $100 million increase at the midpoint of our range from what we indicated on our last call given the additional term loan proceeds.
As a reminder, our current excess cash flow estimates for 2026 do not anticipate any additional cash flows to the parent resulting from the establishment of the new Bermuda entity in 2025. Now with regards to capital levels at our insurance subsidiaries, our goal is to maintain capital within our insurance operations at levels necessary to support our current ratings.
Globe Life targets a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320%. Although this target range is lower than many of our peers, it is appropriate given the stable premium revenue from the large number of in force policies the nature of our protection products with benefits that are not sensitive to interest rates or equity markets, our conservative investment portfolio, and strong, consistent underwriting margins.
Which result in consistent statutory earnings at our insurance companies. As of the end of 25, our consolidated RBC ratio for our US subsidiaries was 316% which provides approximately 95 million of excess capital above what is needed to be at our minimum capital target level of 300%.
For 2026, we intend to maintain our consolidated RBC within targeted range of 300% to 320%. Now I would like to update you on the progress we are making with our Bermuda subsidiary, We are pleased with our progress so far.
As our lead regulator in Nebraska approved reciprocal jurisdiction in the second quarter for Globe Life Re. Company's Bermuda reinsurance affiliate.
Given this approval, we are now in the process of seeking reciprocal jurisdiction approval from Indiana. American Income's, state of domicile.
I will provide you with an update on our next call. In addition, consistent with our business plan, we expect to complete a new reinsurance cession in the third quarter, which will reinsure a portion of new business and in force policies issued by our subsidiaries to Globe Life Re.
Now with regards to our policy obligations, for the current quarter, For the second quarter, life policy obligations as a percent of premium improved from 36.7% in the year ago quarter to 34.3% Favorable to management's estimates and consistent with the continued favorable trends in mortality. Health obligations as a percent of premium, were 56.8% compared with 53.3% from the year ago quarter.
This was higher than our estimates. The higher health obligation ratio was driven by a number of factors, including Medicare supplement claims related to prior periods, including an industry wide correction that CMS made to physician reimbursement rates.
Higher loss ratios at Evri due to an adverse fluctuation in high severity claims and an adverse fluctuation in the quarter related to cancer claims at Liberty National division. We expect the claims experience to moderate during the remainder of the year.
As a reminder, we intend to update our life and health assumptions annually in the third quarter and thus, we have made no changes to our long term assumptions this quarter. Now with respect to our 2026 guidance, For the full year 2026, we estimate net operating earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $15.55 to $15.95 representing 8.5% earnings per share growth at the midpoint of the range.
This increase from our prior guidance is primarily due to improved life underwriting margins and excess investment income offset by higher financing costs and the reduced impact of share repurchases due to the higher share price. The guidance range reflects potential remeasurement gains from the third quarter life and health assumption updates in the range of 110 million to 130 million with a life assumption range update.
Sorry, with a life assumption update in the range of $90 million to $100 million and the health assumption update in the range of $20 million to $30 million The midpoint of the range is higher than last quarter's call, due to continued refinements in estimates, with the increase primarily related to the health assumption update, which was previously anticipated to be relatively small. Given the estimated benefit from assumption updates in the third quarter, we anticipate third quarter life underwriting margin as a percent of premium will be in the range of 52% to 53% and the third quarter health underwriting margin as a percent of premium will be in the range of 29% to 32%.
We anticipate recent favorable trends will continue through 2020. For the full year normalized life underwriting margin as a percent of premium which excludes the impact of the third quarter assumption update, is between 41% to 42% at the midpoint of our guidance.
As Frank previously noted, we expect health premiums to grow in the range of 14% to 16% for the full year, As mentioned on the previous call, this health premium growth is benefiting not only from strong growth in Medicare supplement sales in 2025 and anticipated in 2026, but also from approximately 65 million additional premium from approved rate increases on individual Medicare supplement policies that will be received throughout 2026. Primarily in the last 3 quarters of the year.
In our full year guidance, we anticipate United American's premium growth to be in the range of 25% to 35% and the health margin as a percent of premium to be approximately 7% for the second half of the year. As Matt previously discussed, United American's health margin includes our group health business, including Evri.
When excluding Evri, United American's health margin as a percent of premium for the second half of the year will be in the range of 8% to 9%. Finally, I do want to point out that the midpoint of our guidance normalized EPS growth which removes the impact of assumption updates to both 2025 and 2026.
Is estimated to be between 9% to 10% At the midpoint of our guidance, the projected 3 year compound annual growth rate of normalized EPS is approximately 11%. Those are my comments.
I will now turn the call back to Matt.
James Matthew Darden
Thanks, Tom. Those are our comments, and we will now open up the call for questions.
Operator
Gentlemen, thank you for your remarks. And to our audience joining today at this time, if you would like to ask a question, simply press star and 1 on your telephone keypad.
We will hear first from the line of Wilma Jackson Burdis at Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Wilma Burdis
Hey. Good morning.
Could you just give us a little bit more color on how you see it playing out as far as adjusting the sales and advertising environment in DTC to AI? What are some of the options?
Just maybe how long you see it playing out? Thanks.
James Matthew Darden
Yeah. there is been a lot discussed recently about just the quantity of search going down.
And the volume of paid search. And so what is happening is that it is really just bidding up the price for paid search.
And so as we have discussed before, we are going to be disciplined on our spin and make sure that we maintain our margin, and we are not just going to chase sales that do not meet our profitability targets. And so what we are seeing out there is that is the paid search has moved to AI generated search.
You are also seeing other platforms such as Instagram and Facebook. Coming on stronger with advertising.
So as I have mentioned in my prepared remarks, that is just something that we are navigating of just going to different avenues for, advertising that is online. And that is not something unique to Globe Life or frankly, even the life insurance industry.
it is just the overall dynamics that are happening on online advertising.
Wilma Burdis
And can you just talk a little bit more about the share repurchases? Because I think the pace in the first half has been pretty high.
Just talk a little bit about that and how you see that continuing and playing out for the rest of the year? Thanks.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yes. Thanks, Wilma.
it is Tom. I do want to correct a statement that I made.
it is we would anticipate the parent will return to shareholders over the remainder of the year. Approximately $350 million to $370 million I think I said $2.50 to $2.70, but that should be $3.50 to $3.70.
Over the course of the year, we do expect to have share repurchases, in that $6.70 to $700 million range for the full year. And we would expect to pace share repurchases pretty much, pro rata during the third quarter and the fourth quarter.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Yeah. And, Wilma, I think the 1 thing that I would add obviously, as Tom mentioned in his comments, that it is higher you know, than what we had anticipated as of in our last call And we are using a portion of the proceeds from the increase in the term loan to increase the amount of the buybacks over the course of the year.
We really wanted to kind of lean in on the first half of the year, given some of the favorable pricing in our share price that we had. 1 of the you know, so we were a little bit over 50% in the first half of the year.
And this will bring us to we will be just a little bit more in the first half than we will than we will have in the second half.
Wilma Burdis
Okay. Thank you.
That definitely helped. Appreciate it.
Operator
Our next question comes from Ryan Krueger at KBW.
Ryan Krueger
Hey, thanks. Good morning.
Can you quantify the potential capital impact of the planned session to Bermuda in the third quarter. And then I guess, at what point would you expect to get that capital up to the holding company?
Would that be more next year?
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yeah. On this next reinsurance cession,, the real benefit of increasing of reinsuring some of the in force business is to balance out our ability to, reinsure new business in the Bermuda entity.
So we do not really expect any capital benefit in 2026 from, that transaction, and we would expect to see some benefit in 2027, but not likely the full benefit that we have communicated on prior calls. In 2027 that would emerge over a longer period of time of the of the business plan, so the next, 3 to 5 years.
Ryan Krueger
Got it. And then I guess on the health side, I guess I am a little surprised that you have increased the expectation for remeasurement gains in the assumption review given I guess, the weaker claims experienced this quarter.
Can you give some more color on where that is coming from? Maybe it is a different area than you had the claims weakness.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yeah, on the assumption update on health is primarily driven by American Income Life Family Heritage, and Liberty National. And on the Liberty National claims, we did see some higher cancer claims this quarter, but we really see that as a fluctuation and not a continuing trend, a morbidity trend for Liberty National.
So as we look at those assumptions, the predominant driver for assumption updates is, improved morbidity that we have seen over the past few years. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will come from Wesley Carmichael at Wells Fargo.
Wesley Carmichael
Hey. Thank you.
Good morning. So I had a question on back to the buybacks or capital management, but the stock has done better recently, maybe outside of this morning.
But does that change the outlook for capital deployment looking forward to 2027? I guess, is it impact your willingness at all to look towards M&A?
And are there any interesting acquisition opportunities out there?
Frank Martin Svoboda
Yes. I would say, Wesley, that I think as we think about buybacks as a strategy as a whole, it does not the higher share price does not deter us from, you know, being willing to continue to buy back our shares, and we will continue to have that being a predominant use of that excess cash flows that we have.
Absent some better alternative, I mean, we will look at and we will continue to look at M&A opportunities We are again, very committed to growing and confident in our ability grow our organization organically. But if we could find the right opportunity that fits in with our strategy fits in with our marketplace and the products, and has a distribution that we can grow.
that is really critical for us is to be able to have you know, having some ability to grow the business we would definitely look at those opportunities. And we continue to explore those.
But in the meantime, you know, we will continue. We feel you know, very comfortable that you know, the current share price is still you know, below what we think is the intrinsic value the organization, and so it is good use of the shareholder money.
Wesley Carmichael
Thanks. And my follow-up was on American Income.
Just looking at lapses there, I think the first year lapses ticked down sequentially, but renewal lapses maybe remain a little bit elevated relative to historical trends. So wondering if you think maybe that is a better run rate going forward or maybe just a couple of quarters of deviation from the longer term trend?
James Matthew Darden
Yeah. We were really pleased to see those first year lapses at American Income come down back to kind of where they have been.
And, you know, renewal lapses are a little bit higher than they were, pre pandemic, and we do kind of see that as continuing to be in that range, right around that range. So think that is a good baseline.
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will come from Joel Hurwitz at Dowling and Partners.
Joel Hurwitz
I wanted to start on the life sales trends and particularly American Income. The growth has been coming in below sort of your outlook Do you think that is cost of living pressures emerging there with your targeted consumer?
Or is it largely just the agent count and sort of the ramp of new agents?
James Matthew Darden
Yes. No, I do not think it is economy-driven.
I do think it is agent count driven. And, you know, we had mentioned before, the agent count has not been where we wanted it to be from a growth perspective over the last few quarters, but we are seeing that turnaround here in Q2.
And we anticipate that Q3 and Q4, as I said in my comments, to be in that mid single digit growth rate. But what we see from a an overall productivity perspective on a per sale basis, the premium on a per sale basis at American Income, continues to tick up over the last several quarters.
And to me, that is an indicator of consumer health as consumers are willing to spend a little bit more for a little bit more coverage. And what we see in the field and hear from the field is that we are not having to present more conversion rates are going down from just an overall consumer presentation to sales perspective.
So really, I do think it is an agent count story and I am pleased to see that we have got sequential growth from Q1 to Q2. And we anticipate that coming around further.
it is just it is interesting, you know, some of the work that we have done is you go back and look over the last 20 and 25 years, is the agent count and sales count is very much momentum driven. So we are gonna get fluctuations on a per quarter basis.
And it is not uncommon that we will have 2 or 3 quarters of fairly stagnant or maybe even slight declines in our agent count. But then that is usually followed by several quarters, 3, 4, or 5 of very strong sales growth and agent count growth.
And so that is why we really encourage folks to look at it more on an annual basis. it is it is pretty rare over the last 25 years it is only happened 1 or 2 times.
But overall, from an annual basis, our agent count is down, but we definitely get more fluctuations on a on a per quarter basis when you just look at it on a very short term.
Joel Hurwitz
Got it. that is helpful.
And then for my second 1, just on the United American margin, So it sounds like Evri was like a 4-point drag in the quarter. How much of a drag has that business been in the past quarters?
And then I guess, what is the expectation in the near term? I think you guys said ex-Evri, the margin is expected to be 8% to 9% in the back half.
Should we expect that business to have a 4-point drag going forward, though?
James Matthew Darden
Yep. No.
I do not think, on a go forward basis, it was just kind of a high claims quarter. It was really concentrated in a handful of claims.
what is interesting to know with every is that you have just had a pretty significant increase in the sales and the premium starting to come through. In 2026.
And so from a prior-period perspective, the margin side has not had much of an impact. It just did in this quarter because unfortunately, with the significant ramp up in premium, the premium comes in throughout the plan year, but the claims do not come in evenly every quarter.
Yeah.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
And, Joel, I think for the first half of the year, the total underwriting loss in that is around $10 million and about 7 million of that was in the second quarter. And we only anticipate 3 million or $4 million in the second half of the year.
So we do not anticipate the drag for the full year You know, it might be about 2%. On the underwriting margin percentage.
Frank Martin Svoboda
I think, you know, I think something to note is that even despite some of the drags we had as Tom mentioned, we had some adjustments to some prior periods and some claims in the second quarter related to some of the prior periods. As well then with every and even with that, you know, for the full year, we still see the underwriting dollars for United American increasing 24% year-over-year.
So still going to be a very good year.
Joel Hurwitz
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will come from Randy Binner at Texas Capital. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Randy Binner
Hey, thanks. I have a couple of follow ups.
I guess the first is on your adapting to AI search and direct to consumer are you planning to use performance marketing intermediaries? Or are you looking maybe you can remind us if that is something you utilize.
But as far as reaching social media and AI search better, is it can you just dig into a little bit more kinda tactically what you are doing and if kind of expanding your tool set there as part of what you are contemplating.
James Matthew Darden
Yeah. The amount of advertising that we spend online is we are usually working directly with the platforms and themselves, for optimization.
Historically, Google, obviously, has been 1 of those big partners, but we do operate on the other platforms, Facebook, etcetera. And so as I have mentioned, what we are seeing is just I will call it traditional paid search.
Is changing a little bit. Just the volume of paid search is down.
So that is basic economics. The cost is up.
But you are seeing Google and others move into AI generated ads and those type of things. And so we are working alongside with those programs as those new advertising methods of getting in front of consumers you know, are happening.
So we will continue to work with the platform. But from our volume perspective, we really do most of that internally working directly with the various platforms.
Randy Binner
Okay. that is helpful.
And then a follow-up on just the agent initiatives on the on the life side, mostly at American Income. Can you share a little bit more just about maybe like the dynamic with the Salesforce there, the comp I am not sure what you are able to share about the comp changes, but just maybe a little bit more detail on how that is changed.
Is it in line with when you have made these adjustments in the past as was alluded to in 1 of the prior answers you had. And just trying to kind of the dynamic on the ground there with the Salesforce and how they are you know, viewing some of these compensation changes.
James Matthew Darden
Sure. So simplistically, the way to think about overall agent compensation is there is a base level of commission paid on sales.
And then there is also incentive compensation. And the incentive compensation is something that we regularly adjust.
We typically adjust that at least once a year And we are really designing that to move certain KPIs that we are managing. And those transition between years depending on what we are seeing in the field of incentivizing maybe more sales growth, or maybe incentivizing more recruiting and retention and training, of new agents.
And so we are always trying to make that delicate balance because at the manager level, they are splitting their time between direct sales and focusing on sales to, shifting their time to focusing on recruiting, and training and onboarding new agents. And so it is always a balance there.
And so the change that we implemented at the beginning of Q2 from a from that incentive compensation perspective was really focused a little bit more on agent onboarding and retention of those new agents in their in their first year. And so we are seeing that to come to, you know, fruition as our middle managements out there you know, spending a little bit more time recruiting and training agents.
And so it is as expected, and I just pointed to our long history of American Income has been our division that has had the essentially same model for decades. So when I talk about the last 25 years, it is a very consistent business model.
And so these short term fluctuations are not unexpected. And the other thing I like is that we have 3 different agencies that all recruit and train and onboard agents in a very similar manner.
And you can see that it is not a an environment issue, so to speak, because we have got strong agent count growth in Liberty and Family Heritage, you know, with 7% to 8%. And so that is why we are confident that American income will change here a little bit in the last half of this year, which bodes very well for where we want to set that agency for growth in 2027.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Randy, I would just add that on a longer term basis, that we are really working on how do we think about some of the AI opportunities within that sales process. And you know, what can we do to improve sales training for our agents You know, we are in the process of implementing you know, training bots to give our agents, I am gonna say, you know, various personas that they might encounter as they are working with potential customers.
And really enabling them to work on their skill sets before they are doing sales live. So we are in the process of doing that, and then we are also really taking a look at what are we thinking about that wholesale productivity working you know, how do we how do we improve that overall agent experience and which should help with retention and ultimately sale.
Eliminate frictions in the sales process, whether it be from just a lead generation to you know, the time involved in getting in front of a customer and then all ultimately, you know, helping them to get a sale and improving on the that sales process all around. So there is a lot of things that we have got in place that we are really working on that we are we are really excited about I think, at American Income, given the size of that agency.
And the fact that they are both virtual and so, you know, using a lot of technology in their processes to today. Today, It will not be in the next quarter or 2, but I think over time, we will start to really see that come to fruition.
Randy Binner
Alright. Great.
Those answers are helpful. Thanks.
Operator
Again, ladies and gentlemen, that We will hear next from Pablo Singzon at JPMorgan.
Pablo Singzon
Hi. Good morning.
On every I was hoping you could impact your comments on higher severity. Is there something different about the products there?
Or was that comment more about the unique nature of claims that showed up this quarter? And it also does not sound like that you are having to put through any repricing or re underwriting but I just wanna confirm that.
Thanks.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yeah. It is a different product than what is sold by the other a health plan.
I will say, you know, in 2025, we just had a handful of groups in the sales in 2026 have been good. There is, on an annual basis, an opportunity, obviously, to reprice groups.
And so what we do with our 25 groups we had good price increases. Through there for just making sure we have got the right amount from an experience perspective.
Overall, we think long term, this business is really gonna be a 83 to 85% loss ratio, you know, kind of business. But you in the early stages, as I have mentioned, it is a start up.
We have gotta get scale first to be able to get the credibility of experience from an overall perspective.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Yeah. And then we do have reinsurance coverages to protect ourselves from, you know, any of the real severe you know, claims that might otherwise be incurred.
Just to manage our risk on that on that line.
Pablo Singzon
Got it. And then my second question, on cancer claims at Liberty National.
I think you might have an even bigger cancer book at Family Heritage and, you know, was wondering if you know, you saw anything there or, you know, the fact that nothing showed up in Family Hair that just gives you more confidence that what happened at Liberty National was more of an aberration. Thanks.
Frank Martin Svoboda
I think that is exactly right, Pablo, is we have not seen that at family heritage. We have seen very consistent and favorable underwriting results at Family Heritage.
And you know, the products are a little bit different, but and we do see a little bit more, fluctuations at Liberty from time to time. And that is really why we think it is really just a fluctuation at this point for the quarter.
Operator
Our next question today will come from Suneet Kamath at Jefferies.
Suneet Kamath
Great. Thanks.
Good morning. Just on the assumption update that you are guiding to for the third quarter, Post that change, I guess, should we be thinking about that as really a onetime sort of benefit or do you think you are still gonna have these ongoing quarterly, remeasurement gains?
I guess I am trying to get a sense of is this assumption update gonna true up everything and we are kind of back to normal, or will we still have these ongoing remeasurement benefits?
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yes. So from a mortality primarily on the life side.
The way that I think about this is that we look at mortality results over a long period of time to inform our long term assumptions. And so we have been seeing very good mortality experience recently.
So I would not expect our assumptions to be adjusted all the way down to our current experience that we are seeing. So I would expect some remeasurement gains continue to come through.
And we will always we will always see remeasurement gains and losses. They are it is every quarter because things will not exactly emerge as we intend to.
But I do think that there will be some continued favorable remeasurement gains as we even post assumption update.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Yeah. that is what I you know, I think it is as time goes on, as Tom said, that you know, the our current experience is clearly emerging better than those long term assumptions.
And to the extent that continues, which right now, we are not seeing anything in our numbers that say that it will not. But then we will continue to evaluate that in future periods, and if we are continuing to see positive you know, experience from those longer term assumptions, then you know, in the future, it would be possible that we might have some, you know, future assumption updates again in the future.
Know, as you have those assumption updates, remember that it does kind of lock in then a lower policy obligation percentage of for that book of business you know, going forward. So the you know, it is a you needing less of that premium to fund those future claims.
And so does impact and benefit the margins on a on a going forward basis.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yeah. I 1 thing I would look at or additionally emphasize is that we had indicated normalized life underwriting margins in that 41% to 42% range.
And that to me is kind of a starting point for how experience will emerge in the coming years. So that is really the all in underwriting margin.
We will see a little bit of amortization increase, in the future as well just as we have seen that trend over the past few years due to continued capitalization and amortization of renewal commissions primarily at AIL. Okay.
Suneet Kamath
that is helpful. Thanks.
And then I guess just on Bermuda, just based on my conversations with some investors, I think some were hoping that maybe it would be an acceleration in the timing relative to this sort of 3 to 5 year range that you have given. It does not sound like that is gonna happen, but maybe could you just walk us through how you see the next kind of couple of years developing?
Like what are the things that we need to the things that need to happen in order to get you to a position where you can regularly take cash, out of Bermuda. Thanks.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yeah. So the next step is getting Indiana approval for a simple jurisdiction.
And so we have been in active discussions with them, and those discussions have been going well. Once we get Indiana reciprocal jurisdiction, to the extent that we want to have dividends come out of the Bermuda subsidiary, the Bermuda Monetary Authority would need to approve those distributions to the parent.
We would expect that we seek, some subsidiary dividends to the parent in 2027. However, not at the magnitude of kind of where we think our long term run rate is, but we are looking to have dividend distributions each year So a consistent set of dividend distributions each year.
From the entity. And I think as we put more new business in, we continue to create some capacity to actually provide dividend distributions from that and see.
Frank Martin Svoboda
Yeah, the 1 thing I would add to what Tom said, I think that is really important, that we have been structuring you know, our business plan and how we are doing the new reinsurance transactions not to be just a onetime capital release but the ability to more efficiently manage the emergence of the profits from the block of business over time, which will then continue to provide an ongoing annual you know, cash flows, additional cash flows up to the parent I do think with respect to 20 I think we have been pretty consistent to say that it is you know, the anticipated time frame would be that we would have some additional dividends beginning in 2027. Know, little bit optimistic that maybe we could get some earlier, late 26, But again, it is all subject to regulatory approval and the time frames we are working on today are right in line So if we did anything, it would be really late in the year in any instance.
But I do think that you know, the as we think about the amounts of earnings, we do not want to get ahead of still regulatory approval for those dividends, and we do not wanna put out an expectation of getting to that maximum amount sooner than what we have really you know, laid out for the regulators and getting ahead of their approval.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
And I was going to say, in the next quarter call, typically, discuss our estimates for 2027, and this would be, of course, 1 of those items as we think about dividends and free cash flow up to the parent So I would anticipate we would discuss that on the next call of our 2027 plans.
Operator
Our next question will come from Tom Gallagher at Evercore ISI.
Thomas Gallagher
Hi. Where do you expect the health margin to come in 4Q?
Outside of the actuarial review? it is they normalize.
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
It should come in around 2020. That 24 ish percent.
So let's say it was just, say, 23 to 25%. In the fourth quarter.
Tom Gallagher
Got it. So 23% to 25%.
So a little potentially a little better than 2Q?
Thomas Peter Kalmbach
Yeah. I think yeah, we would anticipate it being better than Q2.
And Q4 is always a little bit seasonally high from an overall health because you do have some, you know, the meds up. Does tend to have a little bit lower margins in the fourth quarter versus third quarter.
So we would anticipate absent any of the assumption update, probably being around that 25% in the in the third quarter and then about that 24% in the fourth Gotcha. On an underlying basis.
Yeah. Okay.
That makes sense.
Tom Gallagher
And then just wanted to come back to the comment you made about the direct to consumer business and what is happening So I just wanna be clear as I know what is happening. So is there increased comp online competition?
Do you think some direct sales are going away from you? Is that right now what you are seeing?
And then if you do pivot to, let's say, a Google portal, sales model, what is what would the margin look like? Would you have to give up some of the economics relative to where you are currently based on how you think this pivot may happen?
Any sort of color on that would be appreciated.
James Matthew Darden
Yeah. I would not characterize it as competition from other carriers from a life insurance direct to consumer.
Perspective, it is really the volume of paid search is down and, therefore, it costs more on a per click basis or to have your results appear toward the top of the page than it used to. And so we are being disciplined about we are not going to spend past our target margins for sales in certain advertising you know, campaigns.
So that is consistent with what we have done in the past. The pivot is that there is more testing that is starting to roll out.
Where, as an example, Google is starting to run ads in their AI search mode and some of those kind of things. So the it is really a an advertising dynamic with the platforms that is moving out of traditional paid search more into the AI realm.
And so we will participate in that as well. I do not anticipate we have to give up margin to be able to do We will do it again to optimize sales and to maintain our margins.
So I am pleased to see, and we reported that, you know, our margin's been improving, and our direct to consumer channel, and that is what we are really trying to optimize because and that is the that is the nice benefit of our organization is that it is not a single source for sales, all direct to consumer. But a lot of this advertising spend, we are sending those leads over to our agency business, which is able to convert them at a much higher rate than a passive direct to consumer channel.
So ultimately, I think as things shake out, we can be a winner because our conversion ratio should be better than just a DTC only conversion ratio because we look at it as an entire organization. Rather than just 1 channel.
Gotcha. Frank you for that color.
Sure.
Operator
Our next question will come from Maxwell Frischer at Truist. Please go ahead.
Maxwell Fritscher
Yeah. Thank you.
Good morning. I am calling in for Mark Hughes.
Just a quick 1 for me. Could we get your broader thoughts around the recruiting environment?
And then maybe current experience around agent retention. I know you mentioned the compensation adjustment implemented at the beginning of the quarter, but, yeah, just your broader thoughts there would be great.
James Matthew Darden
Yeah. We see you know, our pipeline being strong.
We track that all the all the way through the recruiting process into what we would call hire, and that is where folks start getting into training and then, ultimately, they are producing agent when they start selling policies. And so we feel good about our pipeline and the numbers that are in there that are ultimately convert into new agents that are producing business for us.
And that is again where I would just reflect back on Liberty National and Family Heritage simplistically do not go to market differently on the agent recruiting side. And you can see that we have got agent count growth there.
That is both on a recruiting and agent retention perspective. And so that is why I am confident American Income will have a better second half of 2026 than we have had in the first half here.
Great. Thank you.
Operator
And lastly, we will hear from Andrew Kligerman at TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kligerman
Okay. Last but not least, Thank you.
Good color on the prior questions. I have just some very basic follow-ups.
Just going back to the American Income with recruiting down in the first half and Matt, I understand your point, the good read throughs from Liberty National and Family Heritage, but I just wanna understand that you are you are you are confident in the second half of the year that you will see mid single digit sales growth, even though recruiting is down in the first half, Maybe just something you are seeing, what is what is giving you that confidence as you look to the second half of the year?
James Matthew Darden
Sure. So Andrew, like I just mentioned, pipeline is 1 of the things we look at.
And I think also, you know, we are comparing this quarter to the same quarter last year. But sequentially, we have got growth in our agent count.
We got 3% growth. And so that to me is an indicator that things are starting, to turn around.
The other thing I would point to is that our pipeline so our agents that have agreed to join the organization that are in school and in the process of getting, licensed, you know, that is 8%. From Q1.
And so that is another early indicator that our pipeline is strong And like I said, it is just kind of a momentum game. And so when we are comparing quarter over quarter, you know, we are gonna get a little bit different answers than when we have got recent turnaround, improvement.
And so it is all a momentum of we have got people in the pipeline. Those are getting converted into producing agents.
We are starting to see that. And so that is why, I was very specific on the second half of the year We anticipate that to be that mid single digit growth on the agent side, just seeing the momentum of where we are at right now.
Andrew Kligerman
that is great. And, you know, with direct to consumer, you are you are guiding to sales down single digits I is this 1 just for as we get to 2027?
I mean, is there a lot of unknown there that is just going to take a lot of trial and error before you can kind of get confident that you will be back into a growth mode?
James Matthew Darden
Yeah. it is just kind of recognizing, you know, because that is an annual number, what happened in Q2 And so we have a long history of running you know, hundreds of campaigns and testing.
And as you know, we are spending money up front with the anticipation of what interest inquiries and leads and ultimately sales that generates. So as digital advertising is pivoting to the AI world, how consumers are online, and the you know, decrease of organic traffic that I believe will be picked up by more of, the, I will call it, the AI embedded advertising.
As we pivot into and test into that, and optimize that, I think in the short term, us along with everybody else over the next couple of quarters, that is going to be a transition period. But from a longer term perspective, I do think that we can continue to grow.
Because keep in mind, overall, that is not really any discussion about the demand from a consumer perspective of the product. So the product still is out there.
We just need to be able to be sure that we get in front of the consumer the way that they are looking and behaving online. And so, you know, we will be right there as the transition happens from a online advertising perspective.
So that is kind of what gives me comfort from a long term perspective is that it is not a consumer behavior issue from a desire of the product. it is just more of how people are interacting online these days.
Got it. Thank you for that.
Andrew Kligerman
And just 1 last quick 1. So as I kind of wrap up on your commentary, And I think about 20 and thank you for the guidance today on 2026.
As I kind of think out to 2027, the health margin was a blip this quarter. And obviously, in this business, that happens.
American Income sales seem like they are on track. And then the good thing about direct to consumer is that you protect the margins and, you know, maybe the growth is a little bit more subdued.
But hopefully, you get back. That seems to me like the wild card.
So as I look to 2027, would it be fair for me as an analyst without asking for your guidance to think that Globe Life is kind of tracking to historical EPS growth rates. Like, it does not seem like there is anything getting in the way of that.
Is that, you know, like, the high single digit EPS to low double digit EPS. Does that seem like a fair observation coming out of the 2Q?
Without asking for guidance?
Frank Martin Svoboda
Yeah. And I think, Andrew, and obviously, we will give more input next quarter, but I think that is fair.
The 1 little wildcard probably is, you look at the assumption updates and where more comes in. And when you look at the year over year and then operating income, you know, we will have as Tom said, you know, we are gonna have you know, 90 to $100 million of assumption update on the life side, so depending on where mortality kind of trends, and it could still trend favorably, but to the extent that you end up having a $50 million adjustment.
I am just throwing numbers out there. Right?
But if it is a lesser number, then that will impact some of that year over year growth rate. Just a little bit.
But that is not to say that especially when you think about normalized margins, those normalized margins will still be very good. I think we are optimistic as where our growth of getting some of the premium growth back up a little bit more from where we are at.
especially on the health side. Continuing I think, the health margins, we would anticipate those health margins, I would say, right now, I would anticipate them being a little bit better next year just because of some of the unique things that we have had in the second quarter as well as be putting together new premium adjustments with respect to the MedSep.
That will reflect some of the higher you know, these higher costs that we have that we saw here in the first and second quarter. And so then that will come through in the in, you know, for next year as well.
So I think still think there is some positives, I would say. And then investment in income, we are starting to see that growing on a sequentially basis.
We would look at that continuing to grow with the current yields on our new purchases of where they are at. Yeah.
James Matthew Darden
And, Frank, I was gonna add is just, you know, there is been a lot of dialogue related to the margin per percent on the health business, but you look at the margin dollars and the growth that we have had there due to all the rate increases as well as the very strong sales. And so, you know, that makes me feel very good.
That the underlying business is performing, you know, very strong from an earnings perspective that I think bodes very well in the future. And even DTC is that, you know, current year sales you know, only a small amount of that drops to the to the bottom line in the current year.
You know, that is earnings in the future. And so our margin is up.
In the quarter for DTC. So I think that bodes well in the future.
And we should still have over $100 million of sales in the DTC channel. You know?
So that is still a good volume that is something that I do think we can continue to optimize as we talked about the spin before. We want to be disciplined about growing our underwriting margin dollars ultimately at the end of the day.
Andrew Kligerman
That was super helpful. Thank you.
Operator
And that concludes our q and a session for today. We thank you all for your signals and your questions.
I am happy to turn it back to Mr. Steven Moda for any additional or closing remarks.
Stephen Mota
All right. Thank you for joining us this morning.
Those are our comments. We will talk to you again next quarter.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's Globe Life, Inc. Conference call.
We thank you all for your pass presentation.