Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Gogo's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call.
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.
To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press *11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.
To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Will Davis, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Will Davis
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gogo's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call.
Joining me today to discuss our results are Chris Moore, CEO, and Zack Cotner, CFO. I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company.
We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements on this call. Those risk factors are described in our earnings release filed this morning and in a more fully detailed note under Risk Factors filed in our annual report on Form 10-K and 10-Q and other documents that we have filed with the SEC.
In addition, please note that the date of this conference call is February 27th, 2026. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of more information or future events.
During this call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. We've included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in our fourth quarter earnings release.
Our call is being webcast and is available at ir.gogoair.com. The earnings release is also available on the website.
After management comments, we'll host a Q&A session with the financial community only. It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Chris.
Chris Moore
Thank you, Will, and good morning. I'm pleased with our product and synergy execution in 2025 as we transform Gogo from a US-focused entity into a global multi-orbit inflight connectivity provider in the fast-growing and dynamic business and military/government aviation markets.
Consistent with prior earnings calls, I will focus on the continued demonstrable progress made across our compelling new product portfolio. These include Gogo 5G and Gogo Galileo with two models, HDX and FDX, all of which are providing game-changing increases in capacity, functionality, speed, and consistency.
I will also highlight our long-term growth prospects from our military and government customer base, which will further improve our revenue mix and diversification. As we look forward this year, we expect the combined Galileo and 5G shipments to exceed 1,000 units.
We expect the activation of those aircraft will create a high-margin, reoccurring service revenue stream that sets the stage for free cash flow growth and long-term strategic value. Let's review the strong demand trends within the underpenetrated global business jet market.
Industry sources indicate global business jet flights are 30% higher than pre-COVID levels, with aggregate growth from key global fractional operators even stronger at around 40%. Leading global business jet OEMs highlight strong book-to-bill ratios and backlogs necessary to support continued delivery growth.
The 854 new private jets delivering in 2025 mark the highest output since the industry delivered 874 units back in 2009. These factors, along with the relatively low broadband penetration of the 41,000 global business aircraft market, create a backdrop for attractive long-term growth.
Let's review our outlook for Gogo Galileo, our global, LEO-based service with two offerings. Starting with HDX, which was purpose-built to fit on all 41,000 global business aircraft.
It is ideal for the 12,000 midsize and smaller aircraft outside North America without broadband and the 11,000 midsize and smaller aircraft in North America that fly outside CONUS or want faster speeds than 5G air-to-ground. By contrast, FDX is geared specifically for 10,000 large global business aircraft.
Galileo operates on the Eutelsat OneWeb satellite network, and we are pleased to see the continuing measures by Eutelsat to strengthen its balance sheet and access the capital needed to support its recent order for 440 new LEO satellites, ensuring full operational continuity for its constellation into late 2030s. Given that HDX has a total addressable market over 4 times that of FDX, shipments and installations of HDX will naturally be much higher than FDX.
The products have also been designed to fit in many mid to large cabin aircraft tails, which expands the opportunity from standard LEO fuselage mountings. The average monthly service revenue and profit for FDX will typically be higher than HDX.
Our Galileo pipeline consists of over 1,000 aircraft, with the current weighted sales pipeline of more than 400 aircraft. We believe this aligns with our projections for growth in 2026 as we expand opportunities and close new business.
We continue to see a favorable pipeline mix with a 60/40 split between US and global markets. This mix is critical for our success as we upgrade loyal customers in the US market and expand to unserved markets with high-speed connectivity in the international markets for business and military and government customers.
As a reminder, inclusive of all aircraft equipped with Gogo broadband connectivity, 35% to 40% are large jets, 30% are medium, 25% are light, and less than 5% are turboprops. Now turning to STCs.
STCs are a critical part to building our global LEO business, and we continue to make solid progress. Gogo has completed 35 HDX and FDX STCs in the US, Europe, Brazil, and Canada, with a total addressable market of 4,000-plus aircraft covering 34 aircraft models.
We continue to expect 20 more STCs to be completed in the first half of 2026. While the total number of STCs is important, not all STCs are created equal.
For example, in recent weeks, we achieved FAA validation for the Bombardier Challenger models 300, 350, and 3500, and for all Global models except the 7500 and the 8000, and EASA validation for the Dassault Falcon 2000. Given the install base and growth potential, a Challenger STC is worth substantially more to us than a Learjet STC due to their operator's budget and airframe value.
However, with the versatility of our product portfolio, the Learjet has access to our 5G air-to-ground product, which is a better solution for both the aircraft mission and budget, all without compromising the need for high-speed connectivity. In 2025, Gogo shipped over 300 HDX and FDX antennas with 84% for named customers.
By the end of 2026, we expect to have shipped nearly 900 Galileo antennas, and with an expected ship-to-install time of about 3 to 6 months, we see a potential path to 700 Galileo aircraft installed by the end of this year. If we assume a $4,000 average monthly service profit per Galileo aircraft, implying $480,000 in service profit over 10 years, if 1,000 Galileo aircraft are activated and paying, we will demonstrate the long-term growth opportunity with our LEO product portfolio and overall market position in aviation.
Let's shift to our global fleet business, which we continue to expect to be a key growth driver. As highlighted on our Q3 call, we have clear opportunity to provide Galileo service to 1,000 aircraft amongst our fleet customers, which include all major global and domestic US entities.
I am now even more confident about that outcome. In 2026, we estimate that 1/3 of our Galileo shipments and AOL will be tied to our global fleet accounts.
HDX installations by VistaJet began in November and will continue to ramp through 2026. We were pleased that VistaJet recently announced a major Bombardier order for 40 Challenger 3500 business jets with options for an additional 120 more.
If fully exercised, the total contract value would approach $5 billion, expanding VistaJet's fleet to around 400. VistaJet announced that Gogo Galileo was a cornerstone of its digital and inflight innovation pillar as part of the Vista 2030 growth strategy.
Our largest fleet customer in terms of activated aircraft remains NetJets, and we expect that to remain the case for some time. NetJets is the world's largest fleet operator with over 1,000 aircraft, including EJM, and existing orders are expected to expand its fleet by several hundreds over the next few years.
As a reminder, the NetJets contract renewal that Gogo announced in February of 2024 is still active. Gogo has installed HDX on dozens of aircraft in the NetJets European fleet, including Challengers 350s and Phenom 300s, Latitudes, and we continue to expand installations.
Within the NetJets North America fleet, we are currently expect to install HDX on the Phenom 300 and the Ascend platforms. Historically, NetJets has utilized multiple connectivity sources globally, and they have confirmed that Gogo will remain a key partner to help facilitate connectivity upgrades for their global fleet in the coming years.
In addition to fleets, we expect that Galileo line-fit option wins will be another critical source of long-term growth. We are line-fit option with HDX at Textron for the Ascend, Latitude, and Longitude models and will benefit once our options are available later in the year.
Additionally, as announced last quarter, FDX will be a LEO line-fit option for all new Bombardier Challenger and Global business aircraft types. We expect revenue generation from this important win in early 2027.
Further, I am pleased to say that we have secured another line-fit option win with a major global OEM for both HDX and FDX that will highlight the growing momentum for Galileo in the market. We would expect an official announcement before the end of 2026.
In our view, these wins validate Gogo Galileo technology and demonstrate the valuable, long-term relationship we have with our global business aircraft OEM partners along with the desire to have competition in the LEO marketplace. Let's continue with Gogo 5G, which substantially increases the speed, performance, and capacity of our air-to-ground network.
We completed the activation of our first 5G aircraft in December, and true network availability started last month. Our current focus remains shipping boxes to pre-provisioned 5G customers that already have the 5G antennas and wiring installed.
We are happy to report that 5G service commenced in Q1, and we expect 5G activations to significantly ramp up through 2026. Gogo has 5G line-fit deals with 5 OEMs, 2 of which are already installing the AVANCE L5 box on the production line today.
These boxes will get swapped with the LX5 5G box upon 5G service activation. We continue to believe that 5G will fill a large void in the market for customers who only fly domestically in the US, particularly those with light and medium-sized aircraft.
Further, we suspect 5G will serve as an active, valuable backup service on certain aircraft, seeking redundancy and enhanced capacity. We recently unveiled updating 5G pricing, highlighting its positioning as a cost-effective way to increase speeds tenfold versus our current L5 solution.
Monthly service pricing for unlimited data is now $5,500, and 5G equipment MSRP is now $100,000, allowing for a full installation below $150,000 and making the connectivity market competitive. To that end, we expect to ship over 500 5G boxes in 2026 and expect to reach nearly 400 5G aircraft online by the end of this year.
Let's shift to the LTE upgrade of our ATG network, which will be largely subsidized with FCC funding. The LTE upgrade provides multiple benefits.
One, it accelerates Classic upgrades to AVANCE; it increases network capacity and fastest speeds; and it accelerates our US government business on the air-to-ground network given enhanced network security. We shipped a record 472 air-to-ground equipment units in Q4, up 8% from 437 in Q3, split between 175 AVANCE units and 297 C1 units.
We believe that our C1 strategy is working. C1 AOL increased from 101 in Q3 to 330 in Q4, and we expect to end 2026 at around 800.
The C1 box swap takes only a few hours and benefits from FCC subsidies, allowing the system to activate once the LTE network is turned on. We completed 95 Classic to AVANCE upgrades in Q4 as AVANCE AOL grew 8% year-over-year to 4,956.
AVANCE now represents 77% of our air-to-ground fleet and continues to grow each quarter. The combination of C1 installs and the AVANCE upgrades drove our Classic AOL at year-end to around 1,100, or only 17% of our air-to-ground fleet.
We expect our Classic AOL to reach 0 sometime in Q4 2026. As of Q4, about 300 Classic AOL are part of fractional or managed accounts, a.k.a.
fleets, with a defined upgrade path, leaving only 800 Classic aircraft not associated with a fleet account. All in, our Q4 air-to-ground AOL trends were the best of any quarter in 2025.
The continued upgrade of our Classic fleet to both C1s and AVANCE, combined with our LTE rollout and the expected ramp of 5G in 2026, is expected to ultimately moderate the downward pressure on our ATG AOL. Sustained service revenue growth continues to depend on our new product ramp, including Galileo and 5G.
Let's now turn our attention to our GEO business. We ended 2025 with 1,321 GEO AOL, up 6% versus the prior year, driven by line-fit positioning.
We attribute slower GEO AOL growth to deactivations from an increase in aircraft for sale triggered by the timing of aircraft bonus depreciation. We expect our GEO investments to continue to improve speed and performance, which we will also leverage with our military and government customers.
Our recent upgrades to the Plane Simple Ku products have already shown results of higher download and upload speeds. We continue to expect large business jets with long global missions to migrate over time to multi-orbit LEO and GEO solutions for increased capacity, consistency, and redundancy.
Our SDR router is now on 2,500 GEO aircraft, and it's synchronized with AVANCE routers on another 5,000, totaling 7,500 systems available for new product upgrades without box swaps or expensive interior rewiring. Lastly, I will address our military and government growth opportunities over the next several years.
Global defense spending is rising, and the broadband penetration of the military and government aircraft is even lower than the business jet market. Our expanded military and government sales force is in active discussions with government agencies across the globe, including the US Department of Defense, NATO, Brazil, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
A recent industry report highlights a market size of 6,200 combined transport and special mission military aircraft globally, of which 1,600 are in the US. We believe these represent excellent opportunities for our military and government broadband solutions, as this is very underserved market, primarily with narrowband service.
Global governments require diversity among their air bandwidth suppliers and will place a premium on multi-orbit, multi-band service for redundancy and performance. We believe that Gogo is the only player who can fulfill this requirement.
The reality is we are already seeing a significant transformation in our business. Our military and government aviation revenue grew 34% year-over-year, and our international growth was an impressive 94%.
The net effect of this growth remains muted by the winding down of legacy land mobile narrowband service, a process that is expected to largely complete in 2026. The key point is that our revenue mix quality within military and government will improve substantially over time.
In addition to the traditional military and government market, we are increasingly optimistic about the market potential within the UAV and ISR markets. The US Department of Defense expects to order over 1,000 Class 2 and Class 3 drones in the next 2 to 3 years.
While not all details of our success can be publicized due to their confidential nature, we are excited to begin delivering on our recent contracts, including receipt of US Air Force mobility approval to sell Plane Simple Ku-band hatch mounts to C-130 aircraft with a TAM of over 1,000 airframes, a multi-orbit win to provide LEO, GEO, and 5G connectivity to a division of the US government, and a 5-year contract with SES Space & Defense for a blanket purchase agreement for US Space Force Space Systems Command with a $33 million contract ceiling value. Thank you for the continued support, and I trust that you will all see our outstanding progress transforming Gogo into a global multi-orbit player with robust broadband growth opportunities in both the business jet and military and government markets.
I will now turn the call over to Zack for the numbers.
Zachary Cotner
Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Fourth-quarter results were largely in line with expectations, highlighted by strong equipment shipments and an increase in inventory spend in advance of our Galileo ramp this year.
Additionally, our key 2025 financial results for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow were all at the high end of our guidance ranges as aggressive cost controls and synergies balanced out our product investments. As Chris discussed, we believe the ultimate activations of our Galileo and 5G equipment shipments will help drive service revenue growth longer term.
On our Q3 call, I flagged the potential need for incremental working capital in 2026 to support new product shipments and our anticipation of continued ATG AOL volatility, tempered with further optimization of opex and capex. My discussion of our 2026 financial guidance later in the call will incorporate these elements.
I'll now provide an overview of our fourth-quarter and 2025 results, then I will review the outlook to streamline our balance sheet, and lastly, I will discuss our 2026 financial guidance. Gogo's total revenue in the fourth quarter was $231 million, up 3% year-over-year on a combined pro forma basis as well as sequentially.
Total service revenue of $192 million increased 61% versus the prior year and increased 1% sequentially. Total ATG aircraft online at the end of Q4 was 6,402, a decline of 9% versus the prior-year period and down 2% sequentially.
Total AVANCE AOL increased 8% from the prior-year period and now comprises 77% of the total ATG fleet, up from 65% a year ago. Since the end of 2022, our total AVANCE AOL has grown by nearly 1,700 aircraft.
Given the sequential increase in C1 AOL from 101 to 330, our Classic AOL is now approximately 1,100, and our 2026 guidance assumes 0 Classic AOL by year-end. Total ATG ARPU of $3,378 declined 3% year-over-year and 1% sequentially, largely due to the pricing reduction on several of our unlimited plans in advance of our new 5G pricing of $5,500 a month for our unlimited data plans.
Total broadband GEO AOL, excluding end-of-life networks, totaled 1,321, up 6% from the prior year and down 2% sequentially. As Chris noted, many of the GEO deactivations in Q4 were triggered by an increase in aircraft sales, which is common at year-end for tax purposes.
Most GEO broadband aircraft are under fixed-term contracts, which helps support revenue predictability. However, our revised GEO outlook reduced the present value of our earnout liability by $7 million.
Now turning to equipment revenue. Total equipment revenue in Q4 was $39 million, up 104% year-over-year and 15% sequentially.
Total ATG equipment shipments of 472 were an all-time high and up 8% sequentially from the prior record of 437 in Q3. In 2025, ATG equipment shipments totaled 1,631, nearly matching the combined shipments from the prior 2 years.
As expected, AVANCE shipments of 175 declined sequentially as market demand shifted to C1, which increased 30% sequentially to 297 to support the Classic conversions. Now moving to our margins.
Gogo delivered combined service margins of 50%, which was in line with our expectations. I will provide further service margin context in the 2026 guidance discussion later in the call.
The write-off of legacy equipment drove equipment margins negative in Q4 and was expected as normal business course. In addition, HDX equipment pricing remains close to cost.
Now turning to operating expenses. Total Q4 operating expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, were $58.2 million, up slightly sequentially due to the ongoing litigation expense, which was $8.4 million during the quarter.
Let's now turn to our major strategic initiatives: 5G, Galileo, and LTE network upgrade, and the FCC reimbursement program. Total 5G spend in Q4 was $1.7 million, almost all tied to capex.
Total 5G spend in 2025 was $12.6 million, which we expect to decline by about 50% in 2026. Q4 Galileo spend was $2.6 million, with 70% tied to capex.
Galileo spending of $10 million in 2025 is expected to decline considerably in 2026 to $1.5 million as we exit the investment phase and embark on product shipments and service activations. We expect total development costs for both HDX and FDX will reach about $40 million, well below our original plan of $50 million.
Given our expectations for strong long-term Galileo success, we believe that our ROI on the Galileo investment will be very attractive. Finally, our LTE network upgrade and FCC reimbursement program.
In Q4, we received $34 million in FCC grant funding, bringing our program-to-date total to $93.9 million. As of year-end 2025, we recorded a $27.8 million receivable from the FCC and incurred $35.7 million in reimbursable spend in Q4.
The receivables included prepaid expenses and other current assets on our balance sheet, with corresponding reductions to property and equipment, inventory, and contract assets, with a pickup in the income statement. Moving to our bottom line, Gogo's adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was $37.8 million, in line with our implied 2025 guidance.
Net income for the quarter was -$10 million, but was affected by a $10 million litigation settlement accrual, a $4 million charge related to evaluation adjustment on a prior investment in a supplier, and a write-down of legacy equipment that I previously mentioned. While we have removed a significant amount of costs from the combined company, particularly in headcount, we continue to identify new sources of cost reductions in various areas, including real estate, back office, software solutions, and capex rationalization.
Moving to free cash flow, in 2025, we generated $89.2 million in free cash flow, which was at the high end of our guidance range of $60 to $90 million. Free cash flow was slightly negative in Q4 due to previously flagged factors, including a $17 million increase in inventory tied to our new products, as well as lower EBITDA.
Let's now turn to our balance sheet. Gogo ended the fourth quarter with $125.2 million in cash and short-term investments and $848 million in outstanding principal on our two term loans, with our $122 million revolver remaining undrawn.
Our Q4 net leverage ratio was 3.3 times and within our target leverage ratio of 2.5 to 3.5 times. Our Q4 cash interest paid net of hedge cash flow was $17 million.
Our hedge agreement remained at $250 million with a strike price of 225 bps, resulting in approximately 30% of the loans being hedged. As a reminder, the hedge amount will decrease to $200 million on July 31st, 2026, and expires on July 30th, 2027.
In 2025, cash interest paid net of hedge cash flow was approximately $67 million. Our immediate focus remains exploring ways to optimize and delever our balance sheet while reducing interest expense.
Between cash on hand and our revolver, we have approximately $250 million in liquidity, which we believe is significantly higher than our requirements to operate the business. We continue to believe our expected free cash flow over the next few years will provide excess cash to refinance the debt and ultimately return capital to shareholders.
In our earnings release this morning, we provided the following 2026 financial guidance: total revenue in the range of $905 to $945 million, with 80% tied to service revenue and 20% to equipment revenue. This implies overall growth of about 2% at the midpoint.
Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $198 to $218 million. Free cash flow in the range of $90 to $110 million, implying 12% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
We expect approximately $30 million for strategic investments in 2026, net of any FCC reimbursement, down about 45% from strategic spending of $56 million in 2025. The majority of our strategic investments this year are tied to fleet promotions and STCs and will flow through operating assets.
Net capex of $20 million after $45 million in capex reimbursement from the FCC reimbursement program as we complete the LTE ground network build. In addition, here are some informal points that could aid in your modeling and provide context on how we look at the business.
One, we believe that mil/gov revenue in 2026 will grow faster than overall Gogo revenue. On a sequential basis, Q4 mil/gov service revenue grew an impressive 14%.
Two, AOL mix heavily influences our overall service profit. ATG service margins are about 75%, and blended GEO margins are in the high 30s, with Galileo margins at scale in the middle of those.
Three, equipment margins are expected to be in the mid-single digits, and service profit is anticipated to account for over 95% of total gross profit. Four, our 2026 free cash flow estimate excludes an estimated $40 million earnout payment in April, which we expect to pay from cash on hand.
In conclusion, we have made significant progress in the past 15 months since the closing of the Satcom deal. Our 3-year product investment cycle is nearing completion, and we expect to see strong benefits from the rollout of 5G, HDX, FDX, and our LTE network.
I want to express my gratitude to the Gogo team for their hard work in driving our transformation and their commitment to outstanding customer service. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks.
Please open the queue for questions.
Operator
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press *11 again.
Please rejoin the queue if you have any additional questions. Our first question comes from Scott Searle with ROTH Capital Partners.
Scott Searle
Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.
Thanks, thank you for the detailed outlook, very helpful in terms of going through the numbers and the analysis. Maybe to start just real quickly, Chris, in terms of NetJets, this has been, I guess, a lightning rod for the company in the last, several months.
What is your expectation in terms of your growth with NetJets? Will you ultimately be adding to the absolute number of NetJets AOL that you have online across, the different types of aircraft across the different geographies?
Then I had a follow-up.
Chris Moore
I think the big thing is that NetJets remain a customer, and we're expanding the customer base with them, especially with the European fleets. We're in a technical transformation with the services that we provide them.
If you look at most of the opportunity that we have, it's on our Galileo service. We're continuing to roll that out, and they still remain a very important part of our future and business and a customer of ours.
Scott Searle
Gotcha. Then as it relates to the Classic transformation, we're down to about 1,000 aircraft right now.
I know there's cutover point, in the middle of this year. Couple of things: it sounds like by the end of this year, that's going to be resolved at one point or another, you expect to have zero Classics online.
I'm wondering how you're seeing the conversion rate in terms of going to C1 and upgrade to AVANCE? In other words, how many what's the attrition number going to look like within that base as we get to the end of this year?
Last one if I could throw in as well, Satcom growth within the mil/gov space has been very, very good. It sounds like you're going to be growing this year, going to be growing that faster than the rest of the business, but I'm wondering if you could give us a framework of what that could look like by, in terms of percentage and mix by the end of '26 and maybe end of '27.
Thanks.
Chris Moore
The mil—I'll start with the mil/gov piece. The mil/gov is expanding, we're seeing a lot of opportunity in Europe still.
As I mentioned in the call, with also transforming that business and removing the narrowband exposure in that business to broadband, I think the exciting thing really on the product portfolio is we're positioned now in with 5G, Galileo, and our GEO broadband offerings, that we have broadband offerings for all of our customers, no matter whether they're in business aviation or government, and they have a true broadband offering or multiple broadband offerings, which is pretty exciting, because then all of a sudden, you've got multiple revenue streams coming from an airframe instead of a single as well. The government part of the business, we're already seeing a lot of opportunity with UAVs.
Europe's obviously doing a lot more focus on expenditure on military spending. I think we're reaping the rewards of that as well.
The DOD is a very underpenetrated market, as I mentioned on the call. If you look at that, they had the 25x25 campaign a few years ago, they still haven't reached that.
Our technology is a lot more deployable, cost-effective, aviation build, aviation grade, and they also don't want interdependencies on a single supplier. I think, as we see that mix, it will take a long time for that to be the same levels as business aviation, but we just see that as continually to grow between '26, '27, and beyond.
Zachary Cotner
I think from a mix standpoint, we, like we said, we do anticipate it's going to grow faster this year than last year. A big driver of that is obviously equipment, but we also won a pretty sizable contract kind of late Q3.
That's why you saw the nice Q4 pop in the mil/gov numbers, which should continue for most of the year. The equipment side, you're going to see a lot more growth on that largely because, if you think of the aircraft those go on, those are obviously quite a bit different than business aviation, it just takes a little bit longer, to get those put on the aircraft, and, the guys are keenly focused on it.
Scott Searle
The mix of Classic, or what you expect to be the outcome of those remaining 1,000 Classics in terms of conversion to C1 versus upgrades to AVANCE, and what you've got factored into the current 2026 guidance. Thanks.
Zachary Cotner
When we look at the AVANCE-Classic mix, the guidance does assume that there's an extension granted and so it doesn't go dark in Q2, but it's still going to decline, right? There will be some AVANCE declines, there will be some C1 decline, Classic, right?
Long story short, our view is between Classic, AVANCE, but then also with the addition of 5G, the total ATG portfolio will be down about 1,000 units by year-end, and then 100 or so Classics basically are assumed to not convert at year-end.
Scott Searle
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Sebastiano Petti with JPMorgan.
Sebastiano Petti
Hi. Thank you for taking the question.
I guess, Chris, just following up, I think you talked about specifically to NetJets expanding their fleet there in Europe. Overall, can you maybe give us a little bit of color on what you're seeing from an international perspective across the portfolio?
The between the backlog on Galileo, you touched on some of the mil/gov interest, for DOD, but also maybe internationally. Maybe start there, then I'll have a follow-up.
Thank you.
Chris Moore
I think the big opportunity that we announced back on the Q3 call was the fact that we won VistaJet, and I talked about that today as well. That's a significant win, but also if you look at Luxaviation, Avcon Jets, that backlog on those large fleet operators outside of NetJets, specifically within Europe as well, is significant and 1,000-plus aircraft.
We know that we're still holding true to that number regardless of NetJets. We're still excited about the NetJets rollout in Europe as well and the feedback we've had on the products.
They've been extremely ecstatic. If you look at our pipeline, it's around still maintains a 60/40 split with international.
I think the sentiment is definitely from our international customers. I think the fact that Eutelsat OneWeb is also a European operator, I think that has some clout to it.
More importantly, these guys have not had a broadband solution on a number of these aircraft, especially those that can't support the rather expensive installation costs of going into the tail or the size of that. We expect that to expand, and we're seeing very interesting markets pop up in Southeast Asia and other markets where, popular airframes like the Phenom are there, but we have zero connectivity, and we're really the only solution that can get down to that size of airframe with a true aviation install.
The mil/gov market as well, a lot of that expansion in the mil/gov market that we've talked about, specifically mostly is at this point is coming out of NATO. We can't talk about specific projects, but we're winning projects against our competitor, which is great.
I think that's a really important point to make as well. We are not the only bid when we are winning these, and I think that pivot towards our technology just shows its versatility from going into anything from a UAV to something that's a small platform aircraft.
I think that is also giving us good dividends as well. We expect that to grow with expanded the international team for the business as well, and yeah, we're very hopeful and enthusiastic about where that's going.
Zachary Cotner
I would just make one other point to reiterate Chris's comments. If you look at some of our metrics we've reported, you'll see we've started adding the LEO units online, and more than half of those are in Europe, I think that's really proving the point that Chris is articulated that that's a very strong market for us.
Sebastiano Petti
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Justin Lang with Morgan Stanley.
Justin Lang
Hi. Good morning.
Thanks for taking the questions. Chris, appreciate the comments around Galileo and 5G, aircraft online expectations this year.
Curious if you could provide a little more color on what level of service revenues from the new products are factored into the guide currently and just on the top line range, what factors might push you to the high end versus the low end this year, and what should we be watching for? Thanks.
I think from a
Zachary Cotner
there's obviously a lot of ins and outs to this because the ATG revenue on the existing book is going down significantly, right? That's about $40 million.
Then the remainder of kind of the decline in service is from the GEO business. We do expect a nice little uptick on the LEO, right?
I'd say the LEO service revenue is offsetting not quite half, but almost half of the decline in the legacy products. Then obviously the equipment mix, that's a big piece of the revenue bridge from last year.
Justin Lang
Got it. That's helpful.
Then just on a sort of cadence basis, should we expect a much stronger second half here as some of these new products dial in or is that a stretch? Then maybe Zack just on free cash flow cadence, because I think you've suggested some unique working capital demands this year.
If we could hit on that, that'd be great.
Zachary Cotner
I think a couple points. One, it does take 3 to 6 months about on the HDXs to get installed.
You're right, it is going to take a little bit of time to see the service revenue. From a free cash flow perspective, we said, in Q4 you saw kind of an inventory build.
You'll see probably see that in Q1 as well, but then and that's really to for the all the shipments, right? We got to make sure we can deliver these orders as requested.
We're ramping up. I think the ramp should will be done this quarter, and then you'll see more and more flows out in Q2 and Q3.
I think from a cash flow perspective, you will see better cash flow in the other three quarters. Then was there another one?
Did I get all of them? Oh,
Justin Lang
go ahead. That's helpful.
If I can sneak one more in just on the mil/gov topic, and specifically around the C-130 opportunity you were talking about, Chris, and I think there's a mention of over 100 aircraft in the TAM. How big of a discrete revenue opportunity is this for you?
Separately, I think we saw you won a seat on the MDA SHIELD IDIQ a little while ago, how should we think about potential Gogo contribution to Golden Dome? Thanks.
Chris Moore
I think if you look at the TAM for the C-130s, 1,000, so that's pretty significant. Getting that hatch mount, which is a really important product for those guys because it's very low cost installation again.
I think that was what been one of the prohibiting points for the military is actually fitting communications onto the aircraft. I think the wins that we're having with the DOD around things like Golden Dome, we'll see how that pans out over time, but I think our approach is really pushing in the adaptable, really easy, low-cost install.
We're moving away from the $1,000 on a hammer or that them having to fund our business by hundreds of millions of dollars. We don't need that.
We're really very specifically focused towards our military customers to get them quick, expandable technology that can be upgradeable very easily in the future as technology changes. I think that's really resonating with the military.
Then if you look at the overseas military outside of the DOD, which is a huge opportunity, obviously the DOD does the largest spend globally on military spending. Aviation's becoming so much more important, border patrol, and also head of state.
We've had wins in the last 12 months around anything from surveillance aircraft right through to significant heads of states wins. It's a really versatile portfolio.
We believe that a really underserved market, very much the business aviation market with broadband connectivity. We just see that being very positive outcome for the business.
The nice thing is as well, we really don't have to put a lot of capex in adapting the technology either. It's really off-the-shelf commercial aviation technology that we've developed for business purpose-built for business aviation.
We're actually able to take that and put that into those markets. I think the C-130 just kind of that's one platform that's obviously utilized globally, but there's other airframes there like the A400M, which is very popular in Europe.
We're really going after that part. We've boosted up the sales team.
We've put that under new leadership, and we're seeing significant uptick from that, we're really excited about it.
Justin Lang
Great color. Thank you.
Operator
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press *11 on your touchtone phone. Our next question comes from Alexander Phipps with OAJ.
Alexander Phipps
Hey, guys. Thanks for the call today.
Overall, congrats on the quarter. Seems like it's starting to stabilize a bit.
How should we think about, I guess, I understand the concept of people getting a backup with GEO to supplement their LEO, but how should we think about where ARPU should stabilize on the GEO business longer term if someone's just using it as a backup solution? Oh,
Chris Moore
I think the big thing is if you look at total revenue by the airframe, right? I think that's going to change over time to where we've had a traditional single kind of source coming from the airframe as a primary communication method, whether it's GEO or air-to-ground within CONUS with the US market.
Now with Galileo and obviously the demand that we're seeing for LEO, which is brilliant, I think the big thing is for those global operators having continuity of service globally is so critically important. I think the way we're looking at it is kind of a blended ARPU for those larger aircraft, which is similar to what we probably get from GEO today, and but we see that more as a blended ARPU from multiple connectivity forms.
That's the way we're looking at it right now.
Alexander Phipps
Got it. Then on the on on line fitting, it's good to hear that you guys are going to be getting a bunch of new line fits for the HDX.
Do you know what percentage of I guess what percentage of planes on the GEO side, let's say that are that are line fit with a Satcom Direct solution are also currently line fit with a with a Starlink solution? I guess how exactly does that work?
Does the customer need to keep the GEO solution in the tail of the plane and then get the Starlink solution installed at an MRO after the fact, or can they actually opt just to get Starlink and not have the SD solution put in the tail?
Chris Moore
I think the big point is on communications there's always choice. Outside of safety services, the OEMs always enable choice on what connectivity solutions that you have, and that's also then dependent on the STC.
You'd absolutely have choice on not specifying different connectivity. However, if you're very different to commercial aviation where utilizing the connectivity service on board is a chargeable event and the attrition of for the airlines quite It's a really different model.
For a business jet, it's a necessity and a need. Then also it really depends on the utilization of who's using it.
Therefore, whether it's primary or backup, we've seen that this is not a new thing for us. If we look at our narrowband service to when GX came in and is a service, that didn't just go away.
That just, we are still activating narrowband services with the OEMs today. I get your point on the analogy with the ashtray.
I think it's this is more kind of really the STC's been invested in, it's also very difficult to get things on airplanes to your point, those things linger around for a while. We are seeing utilization on the GEO service even if another service is on board as we do with narrowband services that are being utilized with GEO on board as well.
We've got a lot of experience in this, and that's the bit where we do feel that it will be a multipoint approach with a lot of customers with the larger aircraft. Obviously, on the smaller aircraft, that's a little bit different.
We usually see a single source of communications as the primary communications method. However, the nice thing is with the HDX, it can really get down to those smaller airframes where actually our competition's antenna is quite large.
I think that's the bit where we feel really quite strong about different sizes of the market. Then with 5G coming in, that's a revolutionary service for these Classic customers or people going to C1s.
really this is going to true broadband. Again, we're seeing OEMs investing in 5G for the line as well.
I think the choice for the customers has always been there, and there's nothing new with that. I think that's the biggest takeaway from my perspective.
Then on the number side, really on the ARPU, the ARPU will really settle. that's a really tough one to navigate at this point because we're still seeing strong ARPUs from GEO because of the necessity of having that backup.
At some point, we truly do believe that it's going to blend together. Whereas what where we really see the true blended rates, we see that being around what we get from GEO today on the kind of higher end from customers, because they're ultimately getting multiple services.
The nice thing with Gogo, we're the only company who provides all of those services, and we can send the customer an integrated bill so they're not looking at It's almost utilizing your mobile phone, you're not looking at how much network utilization you took off AT&T versus Verizon. You'll be looking at this from us as a blended bill from Gogo, very simple, but ultimately knowing you've got the assurance of backup on your data as well.
Hope that makes sense.
Alexander Phipps
That's super helpful. I promise one more quick one, and then I'll shut up.
If gun to your head, just to help conceptualize what the whitespace looks like, cuz to me it seems like there's a lot of whitespace, what excluding mil/gov, just bizav, what do you think the mix will be 5 years down the line in terms of composition of your fleet, North America, or let's say Americas, EMEA, and APAC?
Chris Moore
On types of service, I think I'd put it down to
Alexander Phipps
Just like AOL. Just like AOL.
Obviously right now the AOLs are, like you said, half of the LEO that came online are Europe, if I recall correctly. Do you think that that's going to be the mix longer term?
Do you think it's going to be like 50% of your LEO fleet is non-US and 50% is domestic, or is that just right now?
Chris Moore
I think no, I think we're seeing the demand. We've always been seeing the utilization of business aircraft outside of North America is growing at a rapid rate.
Therefore, I think it would be a logical assumption that the splits that we've got at the moment, North America is obviously the biggest market, we believe we will hold good percentage in that. I think having that kind of 60/40 split is a good way that we're thinking of it long-term as the international market grows and will grow into that.
We also have offices all around the world, we can really support those customers. Also those customers over a period of time, they'll be taking aircraft from the OEM, and the nice thing now is they can actually spec it at the OEM with our services.
I think that will naturally grow as well, but I think that kind of 60/40 split is the kind of way we're thinking about it for the business over the next few years.
Alexander Phipps
Super, super helpful. Thank you so much, guys.
Chris Moore
No problem.
Operator
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Will Davis for closing remarks.
Will Davis
Thank you, everyone, for your participation on our fourth quarter earnings call. You may disconnect.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and have a great day.