Allwyn AG

Allwyn AG

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 27, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Gayley, your conference call operator.

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Allwyn AG Investor Conference Call and Live Webcast to present and discuss the second quarter 2026 preliminary results. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded.

The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Robert Chvatal, Chief Executive Officer.

Mr. Chvatal, you may now proceed.

Operator

Robert Chvatal

Thank you very much. Good morning or good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Allwyn's Q2 2026 results call.

It is good to be speaking with you again after another quarter of strong financial and strategic delivery. I am Robert Chvatal, Group Chief Executive Officer.

Joining me on the call today are Ken Morton, Group Chief Financial Officer, and Kresimir Spajic, the Chief Executive Officer of Allwyn Digital. As this may be the first time some of you are hearing from Kresimir, I will briefly pass to him to introduce himself.

Robert Chvatal

Kresimir Spajic

Thank you, Robert, and hi to everyone on the call. My name is Kresimir Spajic.

I am Chief Executive Officer of Allwyn Digital. I lead Allwyn's digital business growth and technology and product development across the whole group.

I joined Allwyn in September of the last year after spending 13 years working in the U.S. I have over two decades of international leadership experience across regulated gaming markets.

Before joining Allwyn, I was Chief Executive Officer of Betfred USA, and prior to that, I held senior leadership role at Great Canadian Entertainment, Hard Rock International, Rush Street Interactive, and several other multinational companies. I took this role because I was generally excited about the direction where Allwyn is heading, and I wanted to apply everything I have observed and learned in this industry to lead Allwyn's expansion beyond its lottery roots.

I believe that our business is well-diversified geographically, vertically, and per channel, that we have a clear vision, ambitious goals, and a strong team to deliver on it. Therefore, I personally believe that we are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the industry changes and new opportunities in years to come.

I will pass it back to Robert.

Kresimir Spajic

Robert Chvatal

Thank you. Thank you, Kresimir.

I will start by covering both key business highlights as well as the strategic update before handing over to Ken to cover the financials and outlook. We will then take a Q&A.

My initial slide highlights key financial indicators, and we are very proud to be presenting them as we delivered another strong quarter, both in terms of financial growth and strategic execution across the group. Once again, the momentum and quality of the Allwyn platform was on full display in Q2.

Starting with the financials. Net revenues increased by 27% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA by 29%.

Adjusted EBITDA minus CapEx grew even more strongly, up 43% year-on-year. This reflects continued momentum in Continental Europe, the consolidation of PrizePicks, and a step-up in contribution and cash flow in the U.K.

as we concluded both retail and digital transitions, one of the most comprehensive transitions in the lottery industry history. Against this positive backdrop, I am pleased to report that the board has confirmed a EUR 0.20 per share interim distribution, taking dividends paid in this year to EUR 1 per share.

We have also executed around 60% of our current EUR 150 million shares buyback program. This combination of growth and cash generation and capital returns is Allwyn's undisputed strength and a clear differentiator.

Turning to next slide. We set out key examples of strategic execution across all our geographies and strategic pillars.

We have delivered across all four businesses and across all pillars of the strategy. Looking at Continental Europe, we maintained strong momentum in digital growth across the region, +21% year-on-year in the digital space.

We also continued to advance our global brand strategy, launching the Allwyn brand also in Austria and continuing our rebranding program in the Czech Republic and Greece. Allwyn became consumer-facing brand in these markets, and it shows great acceptance and relevance, especially to younger cohorts of our customer base.

By the way, brand awareness climbed over 70% just in eight months. We are very pleased with the strong financial performance in those markets since launching our global brand of Allwyn back in January.

This, in my view, is the best testament to our One Brand initiative, one of the key cornerstones of Allwyn strategy going forward. Lastly, on the inorganic side, we agreed to increase our stake in Next Lotto to a controlling position.

As a reminder, Next Lotto is an online reseller of lottery games in the large and, as for iLottery, under-penetrated German market. I will leave to Kresimir to comment on the progress of our PrizePicks line of business.

Adding one important note on North America lottery business in Illinois, legislation was enacted there enabling a three-year extension of our private management agreement, and this week we initiate discussions on concrete commercial terms for the next three years. In summary, we have continued to bring positive news and innovate across our markets, which is a key driver of engagement and long-term growth.

That takes me nicely to slide seven, where we have shown some examples of product development since the first quarter. Looking at the left-hand side of the page first, you can see that we continued to invest in and refresh our lottery proposition across our markets.

This included, for example, enhanced Lotto game formats in Austria and the U.K. In the U.K., we introduced new Lotto, the largest draw-based games there, with two draws and two chances to win, positioning firmly the game as the true U.K.'

s millionaires maker. We are actually introducing Eurojackpot online today in Greece.

Obviously, an important channel that we could unlock regulation-wise now. Another example is the launch of new daily lottery in the Czech Republic called 20 Mega, and bringing the U.S.

game Powerball to the U.K. market.

That happened in July. As a reference, Powerball is one of the world's largest jackpot games, with prizes reaching the billions.

This is literally an order of magnitude larger than the largest jackpots previously available in Europe, even by EuroMillions or Eurojackpot's standards. This launch is a real landmark in the lottery space, and we are very proud to be the Powerball's first market outside the U.S.

On the right-hand side of the page, you can see that we have also been busy in scratch cards. An important note is that we cemented our next 12 years of exclusive scratch card license in Greece.

That's very good news. In iGaming, Allwyn Czechia launched the FunPark as a trial playground in their website.

It was also a dynamic quarter at PrizePicks, both in terms of their portfolio extension into Team Picks enabled by prediction markets, and across the business more broadly, for which I will hand over now to Kresimir.

Robert Chvatal

Kresimir Spajic

Thank you, Robert. PrizePicks obviously play a key role in Allwyn leveraging new market opportunities and in the growth of our digital business.

We continue to be the clear leader in daily fantasy sport in the U.S. We have a large and highly engaged and sizable player base.

Very importantly, we have a strong and loved brand, which is visible both in aided and unaided brand awareness results in our key markets. We also have an agile product and player-focused team with a proven track record of innovation.

As you may know, we have added prediction markets to our product portfolio in order to expand the total addressable market and to complement the core DFS offering so our players have more ways to engage with the sports that they love. If you look at the right hand of the slide, you can see that PrizePicks Q2 operating performance demonstrates that the prediction market opportunity is beginning to translate into additional growth.

If you look at the amount staked, which is combined DFS entry fees and prediction market volumes, we grew 35% year-on-year. If you look at solely the prediction market volumes, we grow significantly quarter-on-quarter, though from a smaller base.

I think for me, the most important stat is that average DFS entry fees per player have seen a strong double-digit growth, which outlines that we have increased engagement of our players and lifetime value of our players. We have also recognized the value and the opportunity to capitalize on the SOCCA World Cup in the U.S.

We decided to increase our marketing spend, both to acquire new players and to deepen engagement with existing players. This is very visible in our results, especially in 26 million associated lineups in June and July.

It is important to know that PrizePicks exited the second quarter with a significantly larger active player base than a year ago, approximately 18% year-on-year growth in what is seasonally a very quiet season. Summer months are down season in the U.S.

This has proved as a strong foundation as we approach the NFL season and later NHL and NBA season, which is the strongest months and quarters in the U.S. sports.

Moving to slide nine. This slide is a good example of one of the PrizePicks' key strengths, its ability to innovate quickly and continuously deliver the experiences that satisfy and exceed players' expectations.

If you look at the left-hand side of the slide, you can see the progression of the prediction markets and what we have introduced in terms of the products. We introduced in November last year, Team Picks and Culture Picks products.

We introduced the blended lineups in May 2026, and we are launching the fully blended lineups just before the start of NFL season. This last enhancement is important because it will allow customers to seamlessly combine Player Picks, Team Picks, and Culture Picks within the single lineup.

If I want to explain this in the simple terms, it makes the experience easier, more flexible, and more engaging for players while bringing the best of the both worlds, daily fantasy sport and prediction markets. It is important to understand that this is just one of the enhancement examples.

There is a long list of other enhancements across player engagement, retention, operation, and the overall user experience that is making us quite confident that we will continue to be a leader in sports entertainment. As you know, the U.S.

sports entertainment market continues to evolve rapidly, both from a regulatory perspective and in terms of consumer expectations and competitive environment. I have been in the U.S.

market since 2013, starting with regulation of online casino and poker, moving to importance of DFS in 2015 and 2016, starting with PASPA repeal and opening, and legalization of U.S. sports betting market across the country, and also surgence of many adjacencies like social casino, series takes, and many others.

Regardless of all of this, regulatory uncertainty and competitive environment, we are truly convinced that we have a platform, products, brand, talent, and most importantly, a mindset to capture multiple opportunities and translate them into engaging player experiences and increase profitability in any market scenario. I pass back to Robert.

Kresimir Spajic

Robert Chvatal

Thank you. Thank you, Kresimir.

My next slide is the summary of strategy of Allwyn. I try to show examples again because the best thing is to show examples of execution under each pillar of our strategic framework in this quarter.

The key message is simple, that we continue to focus on the proven strategic priorities that have underpinned our industry-leading growth over many years. Ken will give you a clear testament to the success of this strategy when he puts our results for the quarter into historical, past five years, context.

We also have a couple of nice examples on the slide. For example, our commitment to responsible gaming and CSR, which we really place great importance on for the long-term strength of our business.

This is a regulated business. It is about business of responsible gaming, and being at the forefront of safe place to play position is absolute key for us.

Secondly, the activation of the Allwyn brand in action shown here in Greece, for example. That leads me to a wrap up on slide 11 with an update on our board of directors.

I am really excited to say that Petra Ehrmann will be nominated for election as an independent director at the next general meeting. Speaking to her, I am keen and sure she will bring extensive experience in both digital transformation as well as product innovation and artificial intelligence, AI.

Most recently, Petra led group-wide innovation, AI and product initiatives across a portfolio of digital businesses and is the founder of an AI health tech startup. Her appointment would take an independent representation to 50%, as we committed to during the business combination with OPAP.

We look forward to welcoming her and with that, I will hand over to Ken.

Robert Chvatal

Ken Morton

Thank you, Robert, and hello and welcome to everybody on the call. I will start with our financial performance, then I will cover current trading and the outlook before we move on to Q&A.

As always, we have aimed to provide the information that our investors need in a clear and convenient way. There are some slides in the appendix with additional detail, in particular for our debt investors.

I would also mention our financial data book, which is intended to make it easy to work through the numbers and to build a model. As usual, we have published a new version with the quarter's data on our website.

Regarding the presentation of the numbers, most of the financial information that we discuss today is presented on a look-through basis, which reflects the underlying performance of the enlarged group. In particular, the comparative numbers for Q2 last year are taken from the reported financials of Allwyn International, so you can see the financial performance of today's Allwyn on a consistent basis.

Secondly, we acquired PrizePicks in January this year. We provided some numbers throughout this section to help you to understand growth without that impact, as well as without the impact of a few factors that impact comparability in the short term but will roll off in the next few quarters.

In particular, that's higher gaming taxes in Austria from the third quarter last year, and license fee amortization in Italy after the start of the new license in the fourth quarter. Those are the same factors that we highlighted at Q1.

With that, I'll turn to a few highlights, starting with net revenue, which was up 27% year-on-year. That reflects good momentum in Continental Europe continuing from Q1, continued digital growth as well, of course, as the consolidation of PrizePicks.

If we strip out PrizePicks and the Austria tax impact, growth was 5% year-on-year, which we're pleased with given that Q2 last year did benefit from some record jackpot cycles in a number of important games. Adjusted EBITDA increased even more strongly at 29% up year-on-year with a margin of 37% of net revenue.

That's slightly higher year-on-year despite the lower share of profit from equity method in investees. That lower share reflects higher license fee amortization at Lottoitalia, and the phasing of items below EBITDA at Betano.

Stripping out those items for a like-for-like view, adjusted EBITDA was up 9% year-on-year. Lastly, on the slide there, you can see on the screen there is a breakdown at the bottom of EBITDA between businesses where we own 100%, businesses where there are minorities and income from our equity method investees.

We hope that will be useful for modeling. That analysis is available also in our data book historically.

Moving to slide 14, we've provided a bridge of adjusted EBITDA year-on-year to help explain the underlying performance. Key takeaway is that organic EBITDA development continues to be strong, up 9% year-on-year, as I just mentioned, and that's again against the relatively demanding comparative as I already covered.

As in Q1, the year-on-year comparison reflects the effects in Austria and Italy, which represented headwinds of EUR 13 million and EUR 9 million respectively. Factoring in a full quarter of contribution from PrizePicks, overall adjusted EBITDA was up 29% year-on-year.

Turning now to slide 15, we summarize performance by business and by product. From the product perspective, sports betting and iGaming were the primary growth drivers with MGR increasing 12% and 24% respectively, with sports betting also benefiting from the start of the World Cup, of course.

Lottery MGR was down 2% year-on-year, reflecting those very large jackpots in the second quarter last year. Moving now on to slide 16, we recap the split of our business as it stood in the second quarter across geography, across product channel and license type.

As you can see, we're very diversified across all those parameters. That's a real benefit in gaming with our operations under a large number of licenses and fiscal and regulatory regimes.

Financially, it also helps to smooth volatility in our individual businesses and products between quarters, whether that is caused by sports betting margins or jackpots or FX, and you can see the benefit of that again in this quarter's numbers. Strategically, it provides us with a great deal of optionality.

Our expertise across verticals and geographies has been a key contributor to the success of our inorganic growth strategy. We see that high degree of diversification as being a key strength as well as being a key differentiating factor.

Moving on to slide 17 and Continental Europe. Continental Europe, of course, is our largest business, so I am particularly pleased to say that the good start to the year that we saw in Q1 continued into Q2.

Net revenue was up 4% year-on-year or 6% excluding the Austria tax impact. This continues the good momentum that we saw in Q1 where underlying growth on that same basis was similarly strong at 7% year-on-year.

Performance was led by iGaming and sports betting, as I mentioned, with continued strong growth in the digital channel in lottery, and lottery performance reflecting the demanding comp. Adjusted EBITDA was 3% lower year-on-year.

However, on a comparable basis, again, excluding the impact of the factors on the waterfall, adjusted EBITDA grew by 4% year-on-year. Turning to slide 18, the charts on this slide show North America on a pro forma 100% basis.

That means that we include PrizePicks data for each quarter in 2025 and the whole of the first quarter of 2026, so the year-on-year trends are cleaner. On that basis, North America delivered constant currency net revenue growth of 6% year-on-year within which PrizePicks delivered constant currency net revenue growth of 3%.

The year-on-year picture reflected a combination of really good performance in terms of PrizePicks key KPIs, as Kresimir mentioned earlier. Those include MAUs, customer activity, and that was partially offset by exceptionally friendly, actually operator-friendly, I should say, sports outcomes in Q2 last year, which created a significant headwind for the comp.

The remainder of the North America business continued to perform well, delivering 21% constant currency revenue growth. We were pleased, as Robert mentioned, to see legislation enacted in Illinois to enable a three-year extension of our private management agreement subject to Agreement on commercial terms.

EBITDA was EUR 37 million lower year-on-year. That reflects the strategic marketing investment Kresimir mentioned, targeted at maximizing revenue and customer acquisition around the World Cup.

It also reflects higher variable costs as a result of the significant increase in player activity levels that we saw during the quarter. I am pleased to say that the results of the investment in marketing have exceeded our expectations with record player acquisition, elevated retention, and increased engagement.

We carry a strong and engaged player base into the start of the important NFL season, and indeed, the important second half of the year. I just finish on this slide by reminding you that in the second half of the year, we will have more favorable comparisons for sports outcomes at PrizePicks than we had in the first half of the year, when the comparable period benefited from good operator-friendly results.

Moving now on to slide 19 and the U.K. The second quarter was a turning point in the U.K., as we are now starting to see the profitability and cash flow profile turn around following completion of the technology transition in Q1.

At the net revenue level, we saw constant currency growth of 3% year-on-year. GGR was notably weaker year-on-year, which reflects a couple of factors.

First, the favorable EuroMillions jackpot cycles in the comparative quarter, indeed record cycles. Secondly, as we flagged at Q1, we have seen some friction related to the digital re-platforming, including an impact on player journeys.

The stronger performance at the net revenue level reflects the start of cost recovery under The National Lottery economic model of the license. That allows us to recover a significant proportion of the EUR 450 million investment we have made to transform the technology program.

That flows through from NGR directly to EBITDA, and drove a step up in profitability of EUR 18 million in euro terms year-on-year to EBITDA of EUR 23 million. We also, if you look at the chart on the bottom left, saw a significant improvement in cash flow as CapEx dropped to a more normalized level and EBITDA adjustments fell away entirely.

We are confident in the opportunity in the U.K. and focused on restoring growth momentum.

You may have seen that we recently announced the renewed leadership in the U.K. as we enter the next phase for that business.

For the rest of 2026, though, we do expect net revenue in the U.K. to be below the range that we initially anticipated.

Although, as I will come to later on, our guidance for net revenue in aggregate is unchanged. On slide 20, we move on to Betano, which delivered yet another very strong quarter.

The total revenue increased by 26% year-on-year on both a constant currency and an as reported basis. This follows growth of 27% last quarter, so a really, really strong start to the year at Betano.

A nice data point to frame the scale of Betano's growth and the scale of the platform is that at the last World Cup, Betano was present in three markets whose teams were in the competition. This year, that had increased to 12.

So you can see that Betano has delivered a really phenomenal pace of expansion over the last four years, with Betano now being one of the largest, most diversified, and most global online gaming operators. That obviously, to a substantial extent, reflects the One Brand strategy and the platform, as well as the incredible customer focus of the Betano team.

As you can see, Betano also delivered very strong EBITDA growth, broadly in line with revenue at +24% year-on-year. At the net income level, our share was down 3%.

That movement is primarily due to the phasing of below EBITDA items last year. This relates primarily to taxation, as we have commented previously.

When you are updating a model, it will be very clear when you compare EBITDA with net income in Q2 last year. Finally, Betano paid another significant dividend in Q2, meaning that dividends for the first half of the year are up over almost 60% year-on-year.

That highlights that Betano is not only a platform that is able to deliver very strong growth, but also very cash flow positive and cash generative. Turning now to slide 21.

Our strong free cash flow generation is supported by the low structural capital intensity of our business model. Over the last few quarters, as you know, CapEx has been elevated as we invest in the U.K.

However, that investment is now over, with total CapEx down 39% year-on-year at EUR 38 million. That is equivalent to 3% of net revenue in the quarter, which is a more normalized level for the business.

Similarly, EBITDA adjustments stepped down by EUR 10 million compared with Q1. The Q2 adjustments did still include some transaction expenses related to the business combination and PrizePicks acquisition earlier in the year.

Looking forward, we are expecting the chart adjustments to fall away further with the main remaining component being investment in our global brand strategy. Turning now to slide 22, a few words on our capital structure.

Looking at the bottom of the page, you can see a clear commitment to a conservative leverage over time. As a reminder, during the last several years, we have made significant investments in growth and paid large distributions to shareholders.

The low level of leverage that we have maintained is a testament to the strong natural de-leveraging of the business. At the end of the second quarter, leverage was 3.5x, which is at the high end of our historic range.

The increase over the last couple of quarters obviously represents the strategic investments that we have made over that period, including in PrizePicks and the renewal of the Lottoitalia and Greek scratch cards licenses, as well as payments related to the business combination of Allwyn and OPAP and the payment of the EUR 0.80 per share distribution. All of those amounts were in line with the guidance that we have given previously.

Looking to the second half of the picture is much simpler. The only material outflows to highlight being the remainder of the buyback and the interim dividend of EUR 0.20 a share.

We remain focused on disciplined balance sheet management and committed to our medium-term leverage target. On that topic, and turning to slide 23, we have summarized for your convenience our capital allocation framework.

In short, the framework ensures the flexibility to invest in value-accretive growth as we have done very successfully over many years, but also provides very clear commitments to capital returns and a conservative, efficient balance sheet. On that note, the board has confirmed the interim distribution of EUR 0.20 a share, which we previously flagged.

We have also continued to execute our current buyback program. As a reminder, that is a program of up to EUR 150 million,EUR 89 million of which was completed at the end of last week.

The buyback reflects our confidence in the long-term growth and cash generation outlook for Allwyn, as well as our view on the attractiveness of our own shares as a capital allocation opportunity. Moving to slide 25 and current trading and outlook.

Since the start of the year, the business has continued to perform and develop well, and trading is in line with our expectations overall. Our group outlook for 2026 is reaffirmed.

We continue to expect consolidated net revenue growth in the mid to high twenties before one-off impacts and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37% of net revenue. For Q3, the Austria tax headwind will fall away, and we also come up against softer comparatives for sports outcomes in both PrizePicks and Betano.

The Lottoitalia headwind will also fall away starting in Q4. I would also remind you that Q4 is typically our biggest quarter of the year.

From a macro perspective, we continue to see resilient and growing demand for our product. To summarize, we remain confident in our guidance and confident and indeed excited about the long-term growth, profitability, and cash flow generation profile of the business.

I would like to end the financial section with one of my favorite slides, which puts the quarter in the context of our group's long-term track record. The track record is something that we are immensely proud of and a key proof point for our strategy and a key underpinning of the investment case.

Since 2019, we have delivered a CAGR in net revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA minus CapEx of around 20%, more than tripling the size of the business across those metrics. That has been achieved without raising any equity and while making large shareholder distributions and maintaining conservative leverage.

The combination of scale and diversification with growth, high profitability, cash flow generation, and capital returns that Allwyn has been able to deliver consistently is unique in gaming. In our view, it underpins a differentiated shareholder proposition and a highly attractive shareholder return algorithm.

With that, I will hand back to Robert to wrap up before we go to Q&A.

Ken Morton

Robert Chvatal

Thank you, Ken. Now let me close and sum up with four takeaways from today.

First takeaway is the Q2 results. Q2 results could be characterized that they show as Allwyn aggregate, another quarter of strong growth, profitability, and cash generation.

Full stop. Secondly, second takeaway is about strategic execution, Allwyn strategic execution.

Here we are absolutely confident that we continued to execute against our strategic priorities, be it bringing new products or rebranding under One Brand or keep on working on our own tech stack. Thirdly, we reaffirm our 2026 outlook, as Ken already mentioned.

Finally, this financial performance underpins our commitment to shareholder returns. Together, Q2 was a great indication of what our platform can deliver, and we are excited about the prospects going forward.

That also reinforces our very compelling and consistent combination of both growth and shareholder returns. With that, we can move to Q&A, please.

Robert Chvatal

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Investors or analysts who wish to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone.

If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality.

Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. In the interest of time, we also kindly ask you to limit yourself to two questions.

One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Ed Young with Morgan Stanley.

Please go ahead.

Operator

Ed Young

Hello. I have got two questions please.

One on Betano and one on PrizePicks. First of all, on Betano, revenue growth was very strong in the quarter, particularly compared to peer commentary around Brazil.

Could you give us some geographical color on Brazil growth versus ex-Brazil or by existing market versus new market or somewhere to help understand those trends? Just given your comments on tax phasing, should we expect EBITDA to convert to net income more strongly in H2?

The second question on PrizePicks. You flagged the fully blended product launch ahead of NFL season.

Do you expect a step change in PM revenue? Should we see this as a chance for you to gain incremental customers materially who are interested in prediction markets as a category, or is this more about better retaining and monetizing the base that you have talked to?

If I put it simply, how important is prediction markets to your mid-teens guidance frameworks? Thanks.

Ed Young

Ken Morton

Sure. I am happy to start with a question on Betano.

We have not provided a split of Betano's revenues by geography, but I can maybe provide a bit of color that will be helpful. As you know, Betano is the leader in Brazil, and that is a very large market.

Betano's positioning in that market has continued to go from strength to strength. Betano is a very large and internationally diversified business as well.

If you look at the performance in Q2, it is a reflection of the leadership position and strong performance in Brazil as well as good performance in their other markets. In terms of the EBITDA to net income conversion rate, Q2 last year saw a very high conversion rate, and Q2 this year was a little bit under normalized level.

If you are looking forward, you could expect a similar but slightly higher rate in subsequent quarters. Kresimir?

Ken Morton

Kresimir Spajic

Yeah, I will take the PrizePicks question. Thanks, Ed, for that question.

I think that the answer is we are building a sports entertainment platform. We are building products that player demand, player want, and that player will engage with.

To answer specifically your questions, we are seeing prediction market also as a way of further engaging our players because as you know, prediction markets are better for certain sports and just makes our offering much larger and more interesting. But we are also seeing a new consumer base coming in because we have expanded our offering to the teams and also expanded our sports offering in sports which are not as common in DFS.

Kresimir Spajic

Robert Chvatal

If I can add to the very last sub-question on the prediction markets overall in general and the future. As everybody is able to observe in the U.S., the whole U.S.

market, the sportsbook, prediction markets is in a bit of a flux. It is not fully sort of regulated or clear how it will be regulated.

It remains to be seen. Probably the Supreme Court will judge on that next year.

But in general, what else can we do and we are fully committed to do to embrace prediction markets as an opportunity and to increase the addressable base, to increase the share of wallet by combining and bundling prediction markets that were the way and gateway to the Team Picks, as Kresimir has already mentioned. That is, I think, important from the Player Picks to Team Picks as well.

I think by seeing these bundles, the customers that do not really distinguish that much or this is technically prediction markets or this is technically sportsbook and this is technically daily fantasy sport, they sort of embrace it because they like the sport and they embrace into something which is engaging and entertaining. Closing off, we build up the sports entertainment company with PrizePicks, not a technically daily prediction or daily fantasy By the way, on Betano.

You see that Betano in Brazil, it pays off to be a market leader because it's easier to reconfirm your position. Whatever comes, you are able to weather better the headwinds.

That's exactly what happened to Betano. It was good that they were there relatively early.

Robert Chvatal

Ed Young

Yeah. Thank you very much.

It's very useful. On Brazil, it just appears we're reporting down 15% or worse.

Ed Young

Robert Chvatal

Yeah.

Robert Chvatal

Ed Young

I was curious if you were growing in Brazil or anything else.

Ed Young

Ken Morton

I could say that the performance in Q2 is obviously phenomenal performance with Brazil as one of the biggest markets. That's a real testament to the strength of the Betano business in Brazil and globally.

Ken Morton

Ed Young

Perfect. Thank you.

Ed Young

Operator

The next question is from the line of Maksim Nekrasov with Citi. Please go ahead.

Operator

Maksim Nekrasov

Good afternoon. Thank you so much for the presentation.

A couple of questions on my side. The first one is on the EBITDA adjustments.

We saw a significant growth in EBITDA adjustments both in the first quarter and the second quarter year-on-year basis, and already exceeded EUR 100 million in the first half. I wonder if you can provide maybe an updated guidance for the EBITDA adjustments.

We also saw that quite a lot of those adjustments come from the corporate adjustments and Allwyn brand initiative. I wonder if there is any timeline for the brand initiative, how long it expected to last.

That is important because, as I calculate, it is about adjustments, about 30% of operating EBITDA. Any color on that would be very helpful.

The second question is a follow-up on PrizePicks and U.S. performance.

We saw EBITDA declining 26% in the second quarter, and you mentioned higher investments into strategic marketing. I wonder if this is something that you expect to continue in the second half of the year, or those investments into marketing were more of a one-off.

What kind of competition do you see in the U.S.? Thank you.

Maksim Nekrasov

Ken Morton

Yeah. Sure.

Very happy to take those. The guidance that we previously provided on one-offs is still good indication of where we expect those to be.

We provided, as usual, pretty detailed breakdown of what they were in the press release and in the appendix to the presentation. The key items that contributed in Q2 were the brand initiative, which is, as Robert has mentioned, a big focus for us.

We also saw continuation. I would say the last material amount of transaction costs related to the combination of Allwyn and OPAP, and to the purchase of our interest in PrizePicks.

Those were pretty substantial transactions. That kind of transaction cost is obviously not part of our ongoing structure.

In subsequent quarters, we would expect the brand investment to be the key component of our adjustments to EBITDA. The marketing investment in PrizePicks, I am happy to provide a bit of context in terms of the numbers, and then maybe Kresimir also can contribute.

It is worth mentioning that Q2 is typically a relatively light quarter in terms of marketing investments in U.S. sports entertainment and DFS in particular.

That reflects the timing of the U.S. sports season.

As the seasons end, you typically see a reduction in investment. What that typically means is that it is a relatively good period in terms of revenue, but a lighter period in terms of marketing investment.

That contributes to high margins as you saw in Q2 last year. Then in this year, because of the World Cup and also because of the initiatives that we are launching enabled by prediction markets, we saw an opportunity to invest in order to retain, I should say, to acquire and continue to engage customers around the World Cup and to carry those customers over into the second half, where obviously we have the start, first of all, of the NFL, then subsequently NHL and NBA later in the year.

I would say that the investment in marketing in Q2 is unusual, but great opportunity for us. I would also mention that clearly, there is heightened competitive intensity, as regards to customer acquisition in the U.S.

But we are really well-positioned in that environment, given that we have a very well-known brand, a very engaged consumer base with typically low churn, and also a very disciplined approach to marketing. Sorry, I realize I did not answer the question about the extent of the rebranding program.

We are still progressing the rebranding in Greece, so you can expect that to continue to run for a number of quarters still. Sorry, Kresimir, anything you would like to add on the marketing?

Ken Morton

Kresimir Spajic

For sure. Look, I think that what is important to know that we really have a very disciplined approach to marketing spend.

We look at our CAC, we look at our returns, and as you all know, World Cup is happening every four years, and World Cup in U.S.A. is happening every two, three decades.

We just realized that this is a good opportunity to enlarge our database. We have seen a high engagement, and we believe that this engagement is going to carry on in Q3 and Q4, which are traditionally strong quarters for U.S.

sports. If I can add one quick comment on international brand, because that was also one of the questions.

To share and develop one common brand, both operator and consumer brand, offers obvious opportunities, and we strongly believe that having internationally recognized brand can unlock positive spillover synergies, ability to extract value from being present as one, which we are prepared to extract. I know it is a little bit generic, but we are encouraged by a very swift and natural recognition of Allwyn.

I repeat, especially the younger generation does not care much about decades long brands. They want to see something that they recognize even internationally, and it brings a benefit.

So that is a bit of a rationale behind this adjusted EBITDA and sort of one-off investment to set it up initially, including Formula One.

Kresimir Spajic

Maksim Nekrasov

Understood. Thank you.

Maksim Nekrasov

Operator

The next question is from the line of Ricardo Chinchilla with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Operator

Ricardo Chinchilla

Hey, thank you so much for taking my questions. I have two, if I may.

The first one is regarding PrizePicks. We saw a very nice increase in the amount stake in prediction market volumes and in average daily fantasy fees.

Yet the net revenue growth was relatively modest. Can you help us reconcile the disconnect between these engagement indicators and revenue performance?

Specifically, what were the key factors that limited the conversion of high player activity into revenue growth? How should we think about conversion rate as we enter the NFL season?

Also, could you help us quantify the benefit from a more favorable sport outcomes at PrizePicks during the second half of the year? To what extent we should expect this to normalize going forward?

Thank you.

Ricardo Chinchilla

Kresimir Spajic

Yeah. No, I can start and maybe you can jump into this.

Kresimir Spajic

Ken Morton

Yeah. Sounds good.

Ken Morton

Kresimir Spajic

Look, we are heavily dependent on the sports outcome, and in comparison with the last year when we have a very favorable sports outcomes, this year we had what we call a regular sports outcomes, and this is the difference between the amount of the entries and our net revenues. That's the main reason.

As you know, the sports outcomes are volatile, but what it matters that over a period of the time or 12 months or whatever, we have a certain net gaming revenue expectations and we expect that they stabilize. Also, it's important to know that the more events you have, the more kind of standard returns you can expect.

If I have to answer directly, most of the NGR is related to very favorable outcomes last year, which inflated the net gaming revenue.

Kresimir Spajic

Ken Morton

Yeah.

Ken Morton

Ricardo Chinchilla

Got it.

Ricardo Chinchilla

Ken Morton

Yeah, I think that really answers the question. Just to emphasize, the comment on the second half was in relation to the comp, right?

Because the comp was difficult this quarter and similarly in Q1, because hold was relatively high during the comparable periods last year. But in Q3 and Q4, it was a more normal level, so the comp is going to be more favorable regardless of the level of actually achieved margins in Q3 and Q4.

Ken Morton

Ricardo Chinchilla

Got it. For my follow-up, I was hoping if you could comment on how you see the promotional environment in the U.S.

and if you anticipate to continue to increase your investment in Q3 and in Q4 just to kind of keep the momentum going with regards to your introduction of PrizePicks in the prediction market segment. Perhaps because some of your competitors are also reportedly increasing their marketing and their generosity in some of your competitive verticals.

Thank you.

Ricardo Chinchilla

Kresimir Spajic

As we have answered previously, we have a very disciplined approach to our marketing spend. Obviously, the Q3 and Q4 are some of the most important periods in the U.S.

sports season, and you can expect us to continue investing in marketing activities. But what is also important to know, that we are improving our player experiences.

So the more players we can bring and they have a positive user experience, we expect a higher conversion and higher engagement from these players and ultimately quicker return on the CAC that we spend on these players.

Kresimir Spajic

Ken Morton

I'd also add, Ricardo, that it's probably not really helpful to think about prediction markets as a new product line which needs launch investment in its own right. We see prediction markets as an opportunity to expand the products that we offer to our customers broadly.

As Robert was mentioning, customers, at the end of the day, they don't care whether they're playing what is legally DFS or whether they're participating in prediction markets. What they want to do is enjoy an engaging sports entertainment experience, and prediction markets is an opportunity for us to expand the experience that we offer.

But it's not like we're offering a new product, so we're starting from scratch. We're talking about the same players, same customer acquisition that we would be doing anyway.

Ken Morton

Ricardo Chinchilla

Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Ricardo Chinchilla

Ken Morton

Thank you.

Ken Morton

Operator

The next question is from the line of Stamatios Draziotis with Eurobank Equities. Please go ahead.

Operator

Stamatios Draziotis

Yeah. Hello there, and thank you for taking my questions.

Can I just follow up on PrizePicks? Given the commentary about the marketing phasing, I am just wondering, should we expect PrizePicks EBITDA to return to year-on-year growth in H2?

I guess I am wondering what sort of margin you think is sustainable for this business once marketing intensity normalizes? That is the first question.

The second one would be for. I can let you respond.

Sorry.

Stamatios Draziotis

Ken Morton

Yeah, sure. I think, as you know, we have not provided specific EBITDA guidance for any of our businesses.

The reaffirmation of our guidance that we just made is for the guidance in aggregate. I think we have commented on some of the factors to bear in mind when thinking about the Q2 number, whether that is in terms of the stakes or player engagement, the sports margin and the marketing investment, and also how that can potentially carry into Q3 and Q4.

But we do not really have anything to add in terms of more specific guidance.

Ken Morton

Stamatios Draziotis

Okay. Thank you.

That is another one for you, Ken. Just to take you to the cash flow.

There was a benefit, I think, EUR 80+ million increase in trade and other payables in Q2 which drove a positive working capital inflow. Just wondering what drove the payables build and how much was timing-related, and should we expect a reversal in H2?

Stamatios Draziotis

Ken Morton

Yeah. I think the key item that can affect our payables, and indeed our working capital as a whole, is tax payments, which are often quite substantial and depending on the timing of the actual payment date, it can cause a little bit of volatility between the periods.

But beyond that, I do not think there is anything specific to call out as being unusual in Q2. In general, the business has slightly positive net working capital and volatility.

There is a bit of volatility between periods, but typically, not a key driver of our cash flow in the longer term.

Ken Morton

Stamatios Draziotis

Got it. Thank you.

Stamatios Draziotis

Ken Morton

Thank you.

Ken Morton

Operator

The next question is from the line of Karan Puri with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Operator

Karan Puri

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.

Thank you for taking my questions. I've got three quick ones if that's okay.

The first one's on free cash flow. It was significantly better than what we saw in Q1, with meaningful improvements across dividends from JVs, interest, and tax.

Is there anything timing related there? Because if you look at the free cash flow conversion, it was basically north of 100%, versus the more normalized sort of 50%-ish level.

So that's my first question. Sorry, do you want to go ahead with the first question, then I can jump to the next two?

Karan Puri

Ken Morton

Why not? Yeah.

I think that there's no very large movements to highlight in the quarter. I think if you look down the summary cash flow that we have in the press release and that we have in the data book, you can see that EBITDA was a bit higher, adjustments to EBITDA were a bit lower.

We had larger, as you mentioned, dividends from equity method investees that primarily reflects a higher inflow from Lottoitalia, which typically pays a significant part of the annual cash flow generated out in Q2. If you want to get a better sense of how that typically phases throughout the year, we have a slide in the appendix with the dividends from that entity going back over some long period.

Net finance cost there is sometimes a bit of a swing between periods, just reflecting the timing of interest payments and similarly for tax. The Q2 is actually a relatively lower number, and I think you can continue to refer to the guidance that we provided for both of those items.

Reduction in CapEx, I think we already covered. When you add these small improvements in a number of items together, obviously it does add up and it was a stronger quarter in terms of cash flow generation.

Ken Morton

Karan Puri

Perfect. Thank you so much.

That makes sense. The second one I wanted to check on.

Karan Puri

Ken Morton

Sorry. If I can just mention just one other thing that is not part of the normal business profile.

We did receive EUR 70 million of cash from Novibet. That was repayment of a loan that we made ahead of the expected closing of that transaction that was paid back in Q2.

That did boost cash flow as well.

Ken Morton

Karan Puri

All right. Thank you so much.

The second one I wanted to check on North America margins, especially within OpEx, we saw a material step down in personnel and agent commissions when we compare to Q1. Can you maybe touch a bit on that?

My last one is actually on the U.K. GGR was down, I think, 16% odd, with the net revenues were basically driven by lower gaming tax and good cause contribution.

I was wondering if you look at it on a pure top-line growth perspective, it was quite weak and in fact worsening quarter-over-quarter. In terms of drivers, is there anything to note there besides tough comps and the tech transition that you flagged?

That is it on my end. Thank you.

Karan Puri

Ken Morton

In the U.K., those are the two factors. As I mentioned, the performance at the GGR level was disappointing.

NGR, obviously, the picture is better because the benefit from the recovery of the cost flows through above the NGR level. There is a reduction in tax, so that is going to continue to be the case going forward.

In North America, I would say that the movement in cost items reflects the PrizePicks transition, which was partially adjusted for by the acquisition of PrizePicks in Q1. There were some items which were booked in personnel costs, which we subsequently adjusted out because they were transaction-related items like transaction bonuses, that kind of thing.

Ken Morton

Karan Puri

Got it. Just a quick follow-up on the U.K., please.

In terms of the cost reversal mechanisms, is it fair to assume that it sort of phases out at some point in 2027 in terms of the benefit that you might get?

Karan Puri

Ken Morton

Oh, no, sorry. No, that is not the case.

We recover effectively a fixed nominal amount each quarter over the remainder of the license. The contribution basically is flat from Q2 this year until the end of the license.

Ken Morton

Karan Puri

Okay. Understood.

Thank you.

Karan Puri

Robert Chvatal

I think on the U.K. It is worth mentioning as well that this tech transformation we believe established solid foundations and platform for future growth.

That is why we started to bring the innovation or novelization of both the existing Lotto business and completely new game called Powerball, as we indicated. We believe that one phase is done, but I think we need to double down on fighting because the U.K.

market also did not stand still, and the U.K. market, as we see now, sees a range of lottery-like or prize draws-like propositions, which are definitely less regulated.

This is not an excuse. It is just a statement that this is what it is.

We are prepared also with the new Chief Executive Officer, Phil Walker, who knows U.K. market, who knows the digital landscape, who we believe is the right leader for the next phase after we successfully do the both retail and digital cutover, one of the biggest in the industry.

That is going to be our job. It is not easy, but at the same time, we also are aware that U.K., being part of Allwyn, brings also non-financial benefits because if we crack things in such a scale in transition, there is not much of such an experience in transition.

So it should be beneficial for Allwyn's future lottery tenders. I overall still believe that being a competent lottery operator combining with other gaming verticals is a platform that is definitely worthwhile keep establishing.

Robert Chvatal

Karan Puri

Perfect.

Karan Puri

Robert Chvatal

Thank you.

Robert Chvatal

Karan Puri

Thanks so much for your answer. Thank you.

Karan Puri

Operator

The next question is from the line of Russell Pointon with Edison Group. Please go ahead.

Operator

Russell Pointon

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions.

First one is on Illinois. I appreciate it's early days and potentially quite sensitive about what you can say, but I'd just be interested in knowing or getting a feel for what is potentially up for grabs with renegotiation.

Could it be potential scope in the revenue games offered, that type of thing? My second question is on the U.K.

I'd just be interested in what you're seeing on player behavior post the introduction of the larger games versus the core portfolio. Thanks.

Russell Pointon

Robert Chvatal

Yeah. On the Illinois, as we indicated, we just started this week, so we do not want to publicly speculate on what is going to be exact shape.

It is also up to the Lottery Commission in the state of Illinois. What we know is that there is clearly awareness, also in Illinois, that since the last time, that there was a private management agreement contract in place, and where this private management agreement contract, especially under the Allwyn stewardship, brought extraordinary better results compared to the state-run lotteries.

Let us make it very clear. This new landscape in the state of Illinois, which brought much more forms of gaming, and optionality to the consumers, means that the Illinois State Lottery has to be competitive in the digital space, has to be competitive in the propositions that are engaging for the customers, and also in the product innovation.

These are the three areas. The commercial settlement has to reflect absolute alignment between the interest of the state and the commission, something that we know well, and it was designed actually well in the U.K.

So we have experience in the design of such a scheme, from the U.K. into the state of Illinois.

Last thing I say, Khalid Jones, our new Chief Executive Officer, who used to be both the Chief Executive Officer of Virginia Lottery and the regulator, again, and knowing Khalid, is a true Allwyn-er, innovative, hungry, and prepared to show that the lottery can grow and expand. So I pause here.

On the U.K., I think it is too early to say. We assumed even certain cannibalization between the three instead of two big jackpot games, when introducing Powerball.

So far, we are talking a few weeks experience. So far, these shares and propositions are showing according to our expectations.

Robert Chvatal

Russell Pointon

Thank you very much.

Russell Pointon

Operator

The next question is from the line of Constantinos Zouzoulas with AXIA Alpha. Please go ahead.

Operator

Constantinos Zouzoulas

Yeah. Thank you for the presentation.

Just a clarification, regarding the core work adjustments. Should we expect branding initiatives to remain at the Q2 levels and then the transaction costs and everything else to decline over the next few quarters?

Constantinos Zouzoulas

Ken Morton

Yeah, approximately. Yeah.

Yeah.

Ken Morton

Constantinos Zouzoulas

Okay. All right.

Thank you very much.

Constantinos Zouzoulas

Robert Chvatal

Thank you.

Robert Chvatal

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr.

Chvatal for any closing comments. Thank you.

Operator

Robert Chvatal

Thank you. Thank you for all your questions.

At times it seemed like Allwyn is only about PrizePicks, but it is understood that you like to see the double-digit developments across many areas on the front PrizePicks, understood. I just remind ourselves that Allwyn is a group, an aggregate of a diversified group, and we consider this is our strength.

This is what Allwyn's story is about. Being present geographically in multiple markets and being present in multiple gaming verticals.

I would dare to say this is unprecedented. We are the second-largest enlisted gaming company in the world, but we are definitely much more diversified.

With that, I sort of look forward to our continued discussion, and I am quite certain that the slide 26, which Ken showed of a historical context, is simply continuing. Thank you very much esteemed and numerous audience for our Q2 2026 calls of Allwyn, and please stay tuned for the next quarters.

Thank you.

Robert Chvatal

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining.