T&D Holdings, Inc.

T&D Holdings, Inc.

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Q4 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 15, 2026

Satoshi Ito

I'm Ito from T&D Holdings, IR Division. Thank you very much for attending this conference call for earnings results announcement.

The materials are posted on our website in the IR section. At the outset, I will provide a 10-minute explanation following the materials and then we will have a Q&A.

Without further ado, let me begin my explanation. Please turn to page 3.

I would like to present the key highlights of the financial results. For the fiscal year ended March 2026, group adjusted profit exceeded the full-year forecast of ¥146 billion, reaching a record high of ¥158.5 billion, with adjusted ROE at 10.5%.

The full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is ¥172 billion, which is up ¥13.4 billion year on year, which is ¥131 million up. Sales results of new policies exceeded the plan at Taiyo and TDF, while Daido fell short of the plan, it exceeded year-on-year levels.

Surrender and lapse rates increased at Taiyo and Daido, while it declined at TDF. Value of new business as the combined total of the three life insurance companies amounted to ¥169 billion.

Group EV increased by ¥292.9 billion from the previous fiscal year to ¥4,238.6 billion, with ROEV at 12.1%, ESR was 222%. Domestic and foreign equities totaling approximately ¥296 billion were sold during the fiscal year by Taiyo and Daido combined.

In addition, the increase in interest income resulting from the replacement of yen-denominated bonds in the fiscal year ended March 2026 was approximately ¥6.5 billion on an annual basis. Dividend per share forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is ¥164, an increase of ¥34 from ¥130 for the fiscal year ended March 2026, making the 12th consecutive year of expected dividend increase.

Next page, please. Financial KPIs are shown in this page.

Adjusted EPS increased by 19.1% year on year, exceeding the growth in adjusted profit, supported in part by the reduction in the number of shares outstanding due to share buybacks. Next page, please.

The key revenue and profit items of each company are shown in the table. The three life insurance companies recorded profit growth, while T&D United Capital posted a decline in profit.

Next page, please. The key performance indicators of the three life insurance companies are presented.

Taiyo and Daido, the positive spread increased year on year, mainly due to higher interest and dividend income. Although Daido recorded a capital loss, this was attributable to realized losses incurred from bond replacement, which was undertaken with the intention of achieving cash flow matching.

TDF recorded a profit increase, mainly due to improvements in insurance margins driven by growth in in-force policies. The factors behind the changes in core profit are shown on page 8.

Notably, for both Taiyo and Daido, an increase in the reversal of the reserve for retirement benefits contributed to higher core profit. Please move to page 9.

Average assumed investment yields of Taiyo and Daido were 1.36% and 1.2% respectively. Next page, please.

T&D United Capital's adjusted profit decreased by ¥1.8 billion year on year to ¥10.7 billion. Profit contributions from Viridium commenced from the fourth quarter.

Next page, please. Cumulative adjusted profit from investments in the closed-book business amounted to approximately ¥89 billion.

In addition, dividends received for the fiscal year ended March 2026 amounted to approximately ¥22 billion, bringing the total cumulative dividends received to date to approximately ¥30 billion. Next page, please.

At Taiyo Life, annualized premiums of new protection-type policies increased from the previous fiscal year, while surrender and lapse rate increased, mainly due to increase surrender in the agency channel. Annualized premiums of in-force protection-type policies increased from the end of the previous fiscal year.

Next page, please. New policy amount at Daido continued to be strong and achieved a year-on-year growth.

Although the surrender and lapse rate rose, in-force business volumes increased compared with the end of the previous fiscal year. Please turn to the next page.

Annualized premiums of new policies at TDF declined year on year, mainly due to lower sales of foreign currency-linked products. In addition, the surrender and lapse rate declined due to a decrease in policies reaching their target values for foreign currency-linked products, resulting in an increase in annualized premiums of policies in force compared to the end of the previous fiscal year.

Please turn to the next page. We have previously disclosed market-consistent embedded value, MCEV, in accordance with the MCEV Principles.

However, in light of the introduction of economic value-based solvency regulations, we disclose Group EV from the results for the fiscal year ended March 2026, reflecting calculation methodologies aligned with a new regulatory framework. The impact of this change in methodology amounted to a decrease of ¥136 billion.

Group EV increased by ¥292.9 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year, primarily driven by the accumulation of the value of new business and higher domestic and overseas equity markets, reaching ¥4,238.6 billion. The value of new business for the three life insurance companies increased by ¥2.9 billion from the previous fiscal year, mainly due to a stronger new business performance and rising domestic interest rates, reaching ¥169.0 billion.

The new business margin was 8.7%. The breakdown of EV for the three life insurance companies is presented on page 16.

The drivers of change in Group EV are shown on pages 17 to 18, and sensitivities are provided on page 19. Please move to page 20.

This page shows the status of investment at Taiyo and Daido. The combined amount of domestic and foreign equity sales by the two companies was approximately ¥296 billion.

The increase in interest income associated with the replacement of yen-denominated bonds in the fiscal year ended March 2026 amounted to approximately ¥6.5 billion on an annual basis. The interest rate matching ratios stood at 88.3% for Daido and 96.7% for Taiyo.

Page 21 shows you the status of foreign currency-denominated bonds. Please turn to page 24.

This page shows the status of net valuation gains and losses on general account assets. While unrealized losses on public bonds increased due to the rise in domestic interest rates, unrealized gains on equities increased, reflecting higher domestic and foreign equity prices.

Please turn to page 26. As of end of March 2026, the ratio of strategic shareholdings to net assets stood at 19.1%, reflecting an increase in the market value of the holdings.

We will continue to work on reducing our strategic shareholdings to zero by the end of March 2031, except those for business partners and collaborators, with an interim target to reduce strategic shareholdings by 40% by the end of March 2028, compared to end of March 2026. Please turn to the next page.

Stocks that have been reclassified from strategic shareholdings to pure investment holdings are being sold off as part of the process of reducing equity risk. As of end of March 2026, 59% of such shareholdings were divested on a cumulative basis.

Please go to the next page. While surplus increased from the end of previous fiscal year, economic capital increased and ESR declined due to increased mass surrender risks driven by rising domestic interest rates, as well as investment into Viridium.

The ESR under the new regulatory framework is currently being calculated, and preliminary figures are scheduled to be disclosed at the IR meeting planned for June 5th. Please move to the next page.

Consolidated full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027 are stated on this slide. Group adjusted profit is expected to increase by ¥13.4 billion to ¥172 billion, and adjusted ROE is expected to be 11%.

Please turn to page 31. The breakdown of the earnings forecast for the three life insurance companies is as shown.

At Taiyo Life, beginning with the fiscal year ending March 2027, the key performance indicator will be changed from annualized premiums of protection-type policies to key performance annualized premiums. This change reflects the introduction of products that respond to changes in the business environment, including rising interest rates, and incorporates the protection components of savings-type products in addition to the conventional protection-type annualized premiums.

The outlook for the core profit and spread is presented on page 32. Please turn to page 33.

Finally, I will explain shareholder returns. The dividend per share for the fiscal year ended March 2026 remains unchanged at ¥130, as announced on March 17th.

The forecast dividend per share for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is ¥164, an increase of ¥34 year on year. This concludes the presentation of our financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

Operator

Next, we would like to move on to the Q&A session. The first questioner is Mr.

Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. Please go ahead.

Masao Muraki

This is Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. I have two questions.

The first one is on page 31, the Taiyo and Daido adjusted profit, the revised guidance. It's mostly flattish, I understand, but the proceed from sale of Nürnberger and retirement allowance and Daido's business expenses increasing, but there seems to be rather huge variance.

Can you explain to me the factors behind the variances? That is my first question.

Satoshi Ito

Thank you, Mr. Muraki, for your question.

Regarding this fiscal year and last year, I would like to explain about the variances. Probably it's easy to understand if you look at page 32.

The profit and the dividend income, first of all, alternative assets performed extremely well last year, and because of the absence of such exceptional performance, there is a reduction of ¥20 billion. Also because we sold equities, the income related to equity reduced ¥6 billion.

On the other hand, the replacement of yen-denominated bonds, the increase of ¥11 billion and the hedging cost. Next, increased expenses, ¥20 billion.

The factors behind the increase in business expenses, the figures for three companies combined: first of all, system expenses, ¥8 billion; and then the personnel cost, ¥4 billion; and new policy acquisition cost, ¥3 billion, these are our assumptions. Other than that, capital.

Going back to page 31, ¥64 billion just about, and the loss from sale of yen-denominated bonds is about ¥60 billion, and then the remaining ¥20 billion is mostly reduction in equities. Nürnberger, €12 billion sale proceed or the proceed will be ¥24 billion, and in May of 2026, when we obtain the approval from the authority, the deal will be completed.

Taiyo, extraordinary loss of ¥20 billion or more occurred last year, but this year, we don't have this. Taiyo, I forgot to mention, Taiyo, last year, it performed well, incremental profit of 10, and this year, ¥10 billion down because of the absence of that.

Daido, ¥4 billion. We took a conservative view towards this.

Page 32, and Taiyo bancassurance, a difference, ¥2 billion down, and increase in business expenses. Taiyo, a ¥2 billion reduction will come from downsizing of bancassurance, plus increased business expenses.

That is my explanation. Thank you.

My second question is about surrender, page 17, EV. Impact of surrender, what is the amount of impact and what is your assumption about this year's surrender?

Page 18. First, insurance-related assumption and variance, the three companies, these are mostly related to surrender.

Taiyo, of ¥77 billion, ¥54 billion is the impact of surrender. Daido, out of ¥87 billion, ¥61 billion is the impact of surrender.

Surrender trend, it's difficult to say, but regarding Daido Life, last year, we saw an increase in surrenders, which is shown on page 13, but the factors behind this is J-type product, which was launched in June, and review of the protection. This is sort of a one-off increase.

Excluding that, it will be below the previous year. Regarding March 2027, we are expecting slight improvement.

However, EV, because we use a 10-year average, 10 years ago and this year's surrender level, this year's surrender level is higher. For EV, we are starting to see some negative impact.

Next is Taiyo. Taiyo, page 12.

Below a bar graph, as you can see, the surrender is increasing. Bancassurance-related surrender is increasing.

Because of a rate hike, surrenders are increasing. One-time payment products are seeing surrenders.

Bancassurance, after 5 years, the cash surrender value will not increase, and therefore, we are expecting surrender will be leveled off on a plateau going forward. Impact on EV moving forward, if the surrender situation deteriorates, it will certainly have an impact on EV.

We will review this. This year's impact is already included, but moving forward, the additional impact will be reviewed.

That is my explanation.

Masao Muraki

Understood very well. Thank you very much.

Operator

We will now take the next question. BofA Securities, Fujinawa-san, please.

Natsumu Tsujino

Thank you for taking my question. My question is related to the answer to the previous question.

For Daido, I'd like to ask about the capital gain of ¥34 billion. Out of that, ¥24 billion is, I think, about Nürnberger, so that is a one-off.

Next fiscal year, year ended March 2028, that impact will be absent. You might think that I'm talking about too much in the future, but insurance-related deterioration was seen for this fiscal year, especially for Daido, there's the increase in system-related expense and personal expense over ¥20 billion or so.

If that system-related expense increase is not a one-off, then I'm wondering about the year ended March 2028, how do you maintain the profit and make sure that it doesn't go down? Oh,

Satoshi Ito

thank you very much for your question. Daido, basically, it's a positive spread increase.

For Daido, new money about ¥200 billion inflow will be allocated to the assets and that will lead to positive spread. Also, we will conduct the yen bond replacement, new money plus the bond replacement should improve the positive spread and the interest and dividend income.

Natsumu Tsujino

Replacement? Really?

I see. With the replacement of yen bond last fiscal year, you worked really hard and so you achieved ¥11 billion positive for this fiscal year as a result of the replacement of yen bond last year, right?

Satoshi Ito

No, that is not the number. For two company combined, the replacement of yen bond impact is ¥6.5 billion and the rest is the impact from the new money.

There is also the sales of the equity, and so capital gains can be expected to some extent. We are also conducting the replacement of yen bond, on a net basis, it's hard to say, but that is the improvement.

Natsumu Tsujino

I see. You will work very hard to not decrease profit for the year ended March 2028.

Satoshi Ito

Yes, of course. Consolidated adjusted profit of ¥230 billion, we will work hard to make sure that this is realized.

Natsumu Tsujino

Thank you. In terms of the surrender impact, which significantly lowers EV, this kind of assumption change, for Daido's moving 10-year average, given the current trajectory, the March 2027 revision, will that also be negative?

For Taiyo, what do you think will happen?

Satoshi Ito

I'm sorry, I'm talking about further into the future again. Fujinawa-san, your understanding is correct.

Because we're taking a 10-year moving average and the surrender rate today is higher than 10 years ago, in that sense, EV will be slightly negatively impacted. For Taiyo, the current surrender and lapse are reflected, but if the situation worsens, then that will also be reflected into the future numbers.

Natsumu Tsujino

Do you think that you have responded sufficiently on this?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you for the question. It's very hard to say, because for the bancassurance products, there are products that haven't yet reached the surrender point, but going forward, there will be the break-even period and that if the surrender rate goes up, then that will negatively impact EV.

We don't yet have the actual track record, we're not able to reflect that into numbers yet. For the bancassurance, once the interest rate reaches a certain level, and after a period of 5 years, then the bank staff will, no doubt, promote the surrender and lapse for the customers.

I think you can forecast the amount of surrender in the next one or two years, but you have not reflected that yet. Thank you for your question.

For

Natsumu Tsujino

where we have the results, we have already reflected that into the forecast, but when we don't have the forecast, we're not able to reflect that. I think that's wrong, since the character of the products allow you to forecast.

Satoshi Ito

Let me supplement that explanation a little bit. For the products that have been surrendered, there is a 5-year period, and then since then, the surrender value doesn't go up after the break-even point is reached, but there are products that have been introduced where the surrender value does go up even after reaching the break-even period.

Product-wise, there are some differences.

Operator

Let us move on to the next question from Daiwa Securities, Mr. Watanabe, please go ahead.

Kazuki Watanabe

Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I have two questions.

One about the surrender rate. I would like to understand the impact of rate hike.

Taiyo, 2 years ago, the surrender trend of contracts other than the ceded contracts, I would like to understand the current trend. Also, if the impact of J-type is excluded, how would it look like?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you, Mr. Watanabe.

Regarding Taiyo, we are seeing an increased surrender for one-off payment type, but excluding the impact of J-type protection review, it's not increasing. That is all.

Kazuki Watanabe

Thank you. My second question is about shareholder return.

In fiscal 2025 DPS, although the adjusted profit increased significantly, you decided not to increase dividend. What is the reason?

You also decided not to buy back shares, and based upon what criteria would you decide to go ahead and buy back shares?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you, Watanabe-san. The reason why we did not increase dividend.

So ¥130, this is appropriate level because it satisfies 60% of 5-year average profit. Because we are using 5-year average, even when we see an upside in profit, it will be reflected upon the dividend hike gradually.

Next is about buyback. On page 53, you can see our dividend payout policy.

The left shows returns from periodic profit, and the right shows the additional returns based upon capital level. We are aiming to return 60% of the profit.

Based upon this return policy, as I explained at November IR session, we would like to be agile rather than fixing the timing. We are contemplating the possibility to buy back shares in agile way.

That is our policy.

Kazuki Watanabe

Thank you. DPS, even 5-year average is used, I think it should go up by 1 or 2, but you have rounded the number.

Am I right?

Satoshi Ito

Yes, you are right.

Kazuki Watanabe

Thank you.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Futoshi Sasaki

This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. I have two questions.

First is regarding new policy sales results. In terms of Daido, you said that new policy sales results underperformed.

Was that due to some changes in the customers? Why do you think that there was some downturn in the new policy sales result for Daido?

For Taiyo, you talked about change in the KPI to incorporate the protection component of savings-type products. Is that product being sold by in-house sales reps?

Since it is a savings-type product, perhaps there is impact on the investment income. Can you talk about that as well?

Satoshi Ito

Sasaki-san, thank you for your question. I'd like to respond to the second question first.

Your understanding is correct. Yes, these are the savings-type products that are being sold by in-house sales reps.

In terms of the impact on the investment income, yes, there is a cash inflow, with the current environment, this should contribute to positive spread. That is the second question.

Then first question, you said that the new policy sales result for Daido underperformed, but that is not against the previous year, that is against the budget. Against the March 2026 budget, there was some reduction, but against the previous year, the sales results grew.

The performance for Daido is solid. Daido's total protection, the meticulous consulting sales to respond to the customer's protection-type needs is going well, and so its performance is not weak at all, it is quite solid.

The reason why there was some gap from the budget is because we had set a very challenging target.

Futoshi Sasaki

I understand. I have one more question.

The year-end ESR of 222%, is that high or is that low for you? Just one word, do you think it's high or low?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you for your question. In terms of ESR, we haven't talked about this much recently, but we have a range of 185% to 225%, which we deem as the appropriate level, and we'd like to control ESR within this range going forward.

The value of new business contributes to higher ESR, and then we will allocate that appropriately through investment and shareholder returns. We will also monitor our competitors' situation.

Perhaps we will keep it on the higher level of the 185% to 225% range, but basically, we will control within this range, 185% to 225%.

Futoshi Sasaki

What you're saying is that you're currently in range. That's your conclusion.

Satoshi Ito

Yes, that is correct.

Futoshi Sasaki

Understood. Thank you very much.

Koki Sato

Sato from JPMorgan Securities. I have two questions.

Both of them are simple confirmation. The first point is ¥172 billion, a figure for this fiscal year.

Is this the better than real number, or taking into account the proceed of sale of Nürnberger and replacement of yen-denominated bond offsetting, is this close to your real ability? At the same time, the plan for this fiscal year, I think the same applies to every fiscal year, I think you are taking a conservative view for alternative and replacement.

You are putting the replacement of yen-denominated bond to have an upside.

Satoshi Ito

Thank you, Sato-san, for your question. Your first question, as your understanding is correct, this is a real ability.

An upside and downside factors, but first of all, alternative investment, we are expecting ¥20 billion decrease year on year. As you rightly pointed out, the improvement of yen-denominated bond is very important in order to reduce interest rate risk and to improve investment yield.

We would like to replace yen-denominated bond. That is my explanation.

Koki Sato

Understood. Thank you.

My second question is about Taiyo Life bancassurance channel. I think you used the expression that you will control it.

Does it mean, apart from whether it means withdrawing from the bancassurance, if in fact you decide to stop doing bancassurance, will it induce surrenders? Is there such risk?

This year, as well as beyond this year, what is your assumption?

Satoshi Ito

Regarding bancassurance, at this point in time, we have no plan to withdraw. Regarding the bancassurance, we will look at surrender trend and make a decision.

That is all.

Koki Sato

Some investors are talking about withdrawing from this line of business and they are pressuring you. This is hypothetical, but if in fact you decide to stop doing bancassurance, would it induce surrenders?

Am I right?

Satoshi Ito

Yes, I think your understanding is correct.

Koki Sato

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Next question, please. Mizuho Securities, Sakamaki-san, please go ahead.

Naruhiko Sakamaki

This is Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities. Thank you.

First question is a simple confirmation. I'd like to ask about the economic assumptions for the plan.

Whether it's equities or interest rate or FX, there's a lot of movements. For the alternative investment, what is the assumption for your forecast of decline of ¥20 billion year on year?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you for your question, Sakamaki-san. In terms of the economic assumptions, please turn to page 29.

Oh, sorry for that. January end is the standard that we're using.

Exchange rate and rate of currency hedge cost impact the P&L. The exchange rate impacts the loss from the foreign bonds and the rate of currency hedge cost as well, which is the actual hedge balance is shown in another page.

For the alternative assets, forecast is quite difficult. Since last year we had a big upside, we are subtracting that this fiscal year.

Naruhiko Sakamaki

Thank you, understood. My second question is regarding ESR.

You talked about a range of 185% to 225%. In the mid-term plan, you are going to do a lot of investments.

Do you think that you have enough investment capacity with the current level, or do you plan to keep a high level of the range of the ESR? Is there room to lower that range?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you for your question. In terms of ESR, as I explained earlier, basically it goes up with the value of new business.

Even with investment, we believe that we can control it within a certain range, namely 185% to 225%. Cash flow-wise, 60% shareholder returns and 40% for investment for growth.

If there's no such opportunity, then we could further expand the return. We will also have external financing.

It is not that ESR will worsen as a result of increase in investment.

Naruhiko Sakamaki

Understood. In your materials, you usually talk about 225%, I was thinking that's your line of defense, but today you explained a range from 185% to 225%, you're not expanding the lower range at this time?

Satoshi Ito

No, your understanding is correct. We will monitor the competitive situation and we will control it within this range.

Naruhiko Sakamaki

Thank you very much.

Satoshi Ito

We are running out of time and therefore we would like to take the last question. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, Takemura-san, over to you.

Atsuro Takemura

Thank you. I have two questions, two simple questions.

One is about new policy value. New policy margin is 8.7%, which is down from 9.3% of Q3.

I would like to understand the factors behind this. This year's new policy value, I think the plan, your plan is that this is going to be flat, but for Taiyo, you are expecting a decline, and I would like to understand the factors behind that as well.

Satoshi Ito

Takemura-san, thank you for your question. The reason why margin declined in Q4, margin did not grow, the major factor was the review of insurance assumption, and also the review of expense ratio.

We changed the model this time around, in other words. We tried to match the regulatory model, the impact of reviewing the calculation method for the risks of not being able to hedge.

This is another factor behind why margin did not grow. This is my explanation for your first question.

Atsuro Takemura

Thank you. So ¥172 billion, I think your plan is to be flat, but are there any special factors, for example, the decline in the new policies for Taiyo?

Satoshi Ito

Yes, we are expecting decline in the bancassurance business. Also, the Taiyo, it's a protection-type products, and therefore, the rate hike has a negative impact on its business.

That is a reason why we lowered the expectation for new policy value.

Atsuro Takemura

Thank you. I would like to confirm another point.

Regarding adjusted profit for this fiscal year, it's ¥172 billion, and vis-à-vis the mid-term plan, the mid-term plan target is ¥900 billion for 5 years, if the adjusted profit remains flat, and if last year has ¥210 billion, this is rather high number. If in fact there's an upside in adjusted profit, how do you plan to use that?

Do you plan to reduce external funding or to increase shareholder return?

Satoshi Ito

Thank you. It depends on the circumstances, but one thing I can say is based upon the shareholder return policy, if profit increases, we will increase shareholder return, such as dividend.

External funding, it depends on the external environment, I cannot say for sure.