Africa Energy Corp.

Africa Energy Corp.

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Africa Energy Corp.US flagOther OTC
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71.87MMarket Cap

Q2 2024 · Earnings Call Transcript

Aug 15, 2024

APIChat

Operator

Hello everyone, my name is Sharon and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Africa Oil Corp Q2 ‘24 Results Management Presentation.

All lines have place do mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

[Operator Instructions] Please note, that this event is being recorded. The recording will be available for playback on the company's website.

I would now like to pass the meeting to Mr. Shahin Amini, Africa Oil Investor Relations Manager.

Please go ahead, Mr. Amini.

Shahin Amini

Thank you, operator. On behalf of management, I thank you for joining us today for our second quarter 2024 results presentation.

On the call today, we have President & CEO, Roger Tucker; our CFO, Pascal Nicodeme; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Oliver Quinn. There will be a presentation for around 20 minutes before we go into the Q&A session.

But first, I would like to remind everyone that remarks made during this session are subject to forward looking statements, which involve significant risk factors and assumptions. And these have been fully described in the company's continuous disclosure reports.

The information discussed is made as of today's date and time and Africa Oil assumes no obligation to update or revise this information to reflect new events or circumstances except as required by law. The company's complete financial statements and related MD&A are available on our website and on SEDAR.

I will now pass you over to Pascal for the highlights of the second quarter, and Pascal over to you. Go ahead please.

Pascal Nicodeme

Thank you, Shahin. Can you please move to the next slide, so I will present the financial statements for the second quarter of 2024 and the first half 2024.

And first I would like to start this presentation by showing how we've used our resources and how we've maintained the strengths of our balance sheet in the first half of this year. So we started the year with $232 million of cash on the balance sheet, we are ending the second quarter with $185 million.

And the main use of this cash for the first half of the year has been the return to the shareholders to a magnitude of about $51 million both in dividend and share buyback. I will come back onto that.

Minimal exploration expenditures, mainly on about $6 million and the negative $11 million that you can see on this chart. The fourth part named as operating activities is mainly G&As actually.

And you will see in this $11 million that a significant portion of this $11 million, about $5 million is one of cost in relation to the signing of the allegation agreement with BTG. We've received another dividend from Prime, the first of the year $25 million net to Africa in April, which is the only source of cash that we received this first half, which explains our end of quarter balance -- cash balance of $185 million.

So if we aggregate this cash balance with Prime’s net debt at the moment of $222 million, it means that we have a combined net debt of $36 million, which once we have completed the deal with Prime is what you will see actually on the balance sheet as we are going to consolidate 100% of Prime going forward after the completion of the transaction with BTG. Next slide, please.Thanks, Shane.

So, in terms of buyback and dividends, I think it has been the main use of our cash in the first half. We want to continue to manage the company and the balance sheet and continue to return some of these positive resources to our shareholders.

So in the first half, we basically bought back some shares for an amount of $39 million plus $11 million of first half dividend paid in March. And so in total, since we have started the dividend return program in March, 2022, we've returned a total of $143 million to our shareholders and the board has also decided to reconduct the existing semi-annual dividend.

So we are going to pay another $2.50 per share to our shareholders end of September. Next slide, please, Shane.Thank you.

A few financial highlights for the quarter and the previous quarters, Prime's performance has remained very solid with an EBITDA for the quarter of $92 million and free cash flow of $77 million. So very stable performance.

Looking on the left side of this of this slide, you will see the Africa’s net income, which have been impacted by civil exceptional items. And this quarter, again, we had a few exceptional items.

The first one has been -- we've picked up our share of loss of Africa Energy following the withdrawal of total and CNR from the Block 11, B12 in South Africa. We've basically accounted for our share of that loss, that impairment into our own net income.

So that accounts for an additional loss of about $7 million. And also, I was mentioning that our share of net profit from Prime this quarter has been slightly down at $17 million, which has been impacted by a negative over lift balance of about $12 million net to us.

So, which explains why the -- our net income for the quarter just breaks even. Next slide, please.

Thank you. Coming back to all sales I mean, I've explained in the past what are we market oil in now, and I think this quarter has still -- has been the evidence that we manage now to sell our oil in Nigeria, consistently above dated brands.

In Q2 has been the case again, where we sold on average our barrels at $89 per barrel, while Dated Brent has been $85. So we sold three cargoes -- Prime I sold three cargoes, so one and a half cargo net to us.

And going forward two cargoes have actually, it's their trigger price in September and October with a price on average price of $79 per barrel, which also evidences that the marketing strategy that we have now is efficient, and when the old price goes down, we manage to secure a flow for our cargo. So that's also very good news.

Next slide, please.Thank you, Shahin. So just a few words on our production performance this quarter.

So you will have noticed that our production is slightly down and the average product has been down at 16,700 working interest and 19,300 for the first half on average on an entitlement basis. So this is mainly due to a planned one month shutdown of Apko, which has now restarted and actually restarted above expectations.

So this drop that you have seen in Q2 [Technical Difficulty] which for the first half, therefore, we've maintained our existing production guidance. And we are confident that we will lead [Indiscernible] to improve in the nine months and full year period for 2024.

I will now hand over to Roger.

Roger Tucker

Thank you very much, Pascal and thank you all very much for joining this webcast. What I'm trying to do with this slide is just to demonstrate to you that we have been extremely active in pursuing a strategy of trying to consolidate and concentrate our efforts, in particular assets.

At a gross level, the value of the transactions that we've done in the last six months, it well exceeds over $1 billion of value. The every single one of them was designed to get us into the position that we could then do the big consolidation, which was the Prime consolidation with BTG.

So, we've negotiated the farm down and full carry in Venus with total. We've done the Block 3B/4B farm down with the carried exploration with total and managed to maintain a significant equity position in that.

And we've -- as I mentioned now in the process of attempting to consolidate via an amalgamation agreement, the Nigerian producing assets and the whole process of this has been designed to really simplify the way that the company is valued at the end of the day. However, as it points out at the bottom, we have managed to maintain zero cost to us, very significant drilling catalysts on the Venus Block 29/13B on Block 3B/4B in the Orange basin, where we are targeting multi-billion barrel growth prospects by the end of 2025.

And those are, if you like trips to the casino where we're going to be fully covered on the chips. And they're very, very significant drilling targets are preserved in the portfolio but still carried.

Next slide please. And over to you, Oliver to take us through that and I'll come back later.

Oliver Quinn

Thanks Roger. So what we wanted to do here was just show you really, how do we think about value proposition in the company on the back of the transactions that Roger’s talked about.

And secondly then what is the shape of the business kind of going forward long-term. Because I think on the back of the transactions, we have a much better visibility on that than in prior years.

So look, in terms of value, look, ultimately, we see a very compelling value proposition for the company today. If you see on the chart on the slide here, we carry a very disciplined core NAV a view of core NAV.

So we have Nigeria flowing barrels production, we have cash and we take off kind of G&A corporate adjustments next few years. And we see that, again, this is new core NAV at just under $800 million.

And that's versus of course a market cap today of about 700 and no debt at the AOC level. So compelling on that type discipline of core NAV.

We then moved to say, look, the other big components of the business obviously are holding in impact Namibia. And of course, we put a public valuation out on that in March when we made an offer to some minority shareholders.

And that's what you see reflected here. Of course, the projects matured since then and we obviously think it's worth more than that because we were a buyer at that price.

But again, discipline view of value on it here. And then the second component really is the carrier that Roger talked about South Africa 3B/4B, and here, we're showing the capital value of the carrier.

We're not showing a kind of risk exploration view. It's simply a discipline outline of how much value we'll receive in that carrier in spend.

So again, a tangible NAV, which we think is very disciplined $1.1 billion and again, trading today at 700, about a 36% discount for that. So again, significant discount and fundamentally from our view no real value in the share price and significant value for that at Orange basin position.

Particularly given, again, as Roger outlined we anticipate a series of carrier activities potentially the next 12 months to 18 months to test more barrels potential as stated by the operator plans decision on an FID for Venus. So lots of things coming down the line that are not in these numbers.

So, overall compelling value proposition, I think if you put in the closed pro-forma Prime Nigeria consolidation, you can see of course in here that our pro-forma NAV jumps up with a doubling of Nigeria to just under about $1.8 billion. So significant step.

Maybe go to next slide, Shahin.So in the next slide here, what we wanted to do again was show you something of the benefits of the pro-forma Prime Nigeria consolidation. As Pascal mentioned, once the deal completes, we'll consolidate 100% of those assets.

And so actually what we're able to do is kind of look at the forward shape of the business in a much more regular way than we've been able to. And so, what you're seeing on this plot here is our view of our best anticipated view, if you like, over the next kind of 10 years.

So very, very long-term shape of the business. The headline is, it is of course a very strong cash generative business.

And whilst we have some decline in -- natural decline in Nigeria next few years that is offset by the soil from the Pareto [tie]. That's a significant project that grosses essential for 65,000 barrels a day, that's kind of 11,000 barrels to the AOC pro-forma.

And then that's complimented by the potential for first oil in Venus in 2029, and then that's followed by potential further Venus or the Orange basin in development basis. So I think for a company like ours, it's a very strong long-term profile.

What you see in terms of the cash generation that's critical here as well on the lower two plots is that we have a very relatively consistent generation of operating cash flow in this model. So somewhere plus or minus $400 million over this long-term period and of course that's generating a lot of free cash for the business, because we've done the transactions to take the majority of CapEx out of the system.

We have some short-term short cycle Nigeria CapEx under $200 million a year, including the development through ‘28. Namibia Venus no CapEx contribution to first oil, and then there's first oil in Namibia, if that comes on in ‘29, then we will contribute to any residual ongoing development there.

But again, the point to take here is that a very consistent and significant operating cash flow, very controlled and minimized CapEx and so resulting in a significantly cash liquid business. And again, to take you back to what we announced on the back of the Prime transaction, which is that we would put in place at completion a new dividend policy with a $100 million annual base.

And so again, you can see what these numbers demonstrate, the ability and strength of the business to deliver that dividend over a consistent period. So I'll come back to you Roger, at this point.

Roger Tucker

Thank you very much, Oliver, and I know that you've seen this slide before, but what I tried to walk you through is that we are executing and delivering the strategy that I put now probably 10 months ago, that we are very, very focused on the key core assets that we hold. And they are genuinely world class assets.

These are in deep water Nigeria, offshore Equatorial Guinea, Namibia, and the extension of that basin into South Africa. We're associated uniquely, I think only with Tier 1 operators, Chevron and TotalEnergies.

In Nigeria, where we are doubling our production and reserve base in assets that we know extremely well with the Prime transaction that we are in three of the top five fields in Nigeria with a production profile way out into the 2040s if those assets. In Venus, again, we're in an asset with a spectacular operator in a discovery, which has got the potential to add very significant reserves and production, and also has significant additional running room in it as a result of the new 3D seismic and drilling activity around the block, which I'm sure that you've seen by third parties as that basin evolves.

And along with 3B/4B, which we have just farmed out to total whilst retaining a 17% equity position in that block.We have a very material exploration opportunity that is, we hope that we'll get drilled sometime in 2025. In Equatorial Guinea, we've actually just increased the size of the block slightly to the North, and we are still analyzing exactly what we've got now that we've increased that acreage a little bit.

And we will be continuing with the farm out activity on what we consider to be an extremely attractive block. So the question here is that we've delivered -- we've focused the organization and we've put ourselves in to a position with the Prime transaction to be a very material entity in this West Africa region.

And so the next slide please, Shahin. And so what do we become when the Prime transaction goes through?

We think that we will be very differentiated, independent EMP investment case via the relationships with the majors via the scale of the opportunities that we are in. And we have a very clearly identified and enumerated to you capital allocation program.

The business is made up of very high net back production from the world class offshore assets. We've got funded organic growth opportunities in the exploration carriers and the development carry in Namibia.

We have a robust balance sheet with very low debt level and material liquidity headroom. And we have explained with the merger, with or the amalgamation with a Prime that we are putting forward a -- very transparent and committed shareholder returns policy.

We have demonstrated over the last six, eight months a little more that we are returning significant amounts of money to shareholders, as you saw on one of the earlier slides that that Pascal showed. So this is something that we have done.

And so, what we're trying to position ourselves to be -- is we're positioning to be the leading player in the consolidation of the independent EMP space, whilst maintaining our key capital allocation metrics, if you like. And with that, I think I will conclude and then open up to Q&A, which I'll be more than willing with the team to answer any questions that you have.

So over to you, Shahin to manage.

Shahin Amini

Thank you, Roger. And I'll hand it over to Sharon.

Please, see if there are any questions on the conference call facility.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from SB1M.

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen

I have four questions actually, first one on the capital allocation and talked about both dividends and buybacks and of course, carrying out both dividends and buybacks. Now, I just wonder, going forward, how do you think around speak between dividends and buybacks, and how sensitive would that split be to the share price?

Second question, when do you expect the Prime deal to close? I think you said that sometime during 2025, when you announced the deal, is that still the case?

Third question, what's the outlook for the upstream dividends from Prime in second half this year i.e. how much dividend do you expect to receive in second half?

And my fourth and final question, that is on Slide 11 on the pro-forma outlook you showed, could you just clarify that the CapEx carrier before Venus, how is that included on those -- the CapEx indication there?

Roger Tucker

Thank you, so let's start with the fourth question first, which was Slide 11. And on that note, let's go to Oliver who can clarify the Venus CapEx.

Oliver Quinn

Yes, so basically, what we modeled here is of course, in the transaction in Total all the CapEx is covered by Total. It's effectively an interest free loan to impact.

And then when first oil from the block, anywhere on the block starts, then there's a mechanism whereby that loan is repaid, it is not the full operating cash free cash, if you like, that impact received. It is a portion of it that repays the loan, which is why you see here in a net AOC perspective that's operating cash flow from first oil.

So that -- I think that's important in the structure. In terms of -- this is a model it's our best going to view today, obviously a few years in advance of the timing of first oil.

But this is advantages kind of 2FPSO phase development on Namibia. So of course, the first one is fully paid for, if you like, under the Total transaction 2029, and then starts producing in ‘29.

And then we kind of see a 2FPSO potentially, I mean, again, it's a model here, but potentially coming on later in the decade. So what that means is that some of the early spend on that second page, if it goes ahead, would be pre 2029, and therefore equally covered in the total deal if you like.

So whatever is spent on the block, pre-first oil is covered in that total transaction whether that's exploration appraisal development, any scale of development. And then inflection point is at first oil and then Impact will start paying its respective share from revenues in the block, et cetera.

Roger Tucker

Teodor does that answer your question? Do you have a follow-up on that before we go to the next question?

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen

I think it rolled down to my question.

Roger Tucker

Actually, Oliver, if you could stay on and answer the second question that's Teodor ask, which is the expectation on the timeline closing the Prime deal?

Oliver Quinn

It's a good question. I mean, again, as you said Teodor, we guided in announcement of the deal at the end of June that it would be Q2, Q3 2025 for completion.

The key steps for that our shareholder vote, which we anticipate to not be the critical path that should come much earlier. And then what is driving that critical path on timeline is government approval in Nigeria, which of course in needs any transaction in Nigeria is required in standard.

I think it's fair to say that we are upward royal and Prime and BTG together pushing very hard and working very hard with the Nigerian government. We've got a series of engagements planned, so it's going well so far, but I think, we stick with that guidance but give the assumption that of course, we are all moving as hard as we can to try and do it as early as possible.

So frankly, we could move on with the pro-forma business and all the other things we want to do.

Shahin Amini

Let's put the next two questions to Pascal. So Pascal, the other two questions asked is one, is the absolute from for Africa Oil to receive Prime dividends in the second half of this year?

Pascal Nicodeme

If we look at the budget, there is room for another dividend before the end of the year. So magnitude is still to be discussed.

And I'm sure as in the previous year, we will wait until December to size exactly the dividends [Technical Difficulty] There is no shortage of cash. [Technical Difficulty] The last element I would like to mention is that before completing the deal, the allegation with BTG [Technical Difficulty] to make sure that under the true up mechanism [Technical Difficulty] an agreement, there is no cash payment between the parties.

So that's another element that we'll have to take into account. So, I think that addresses the question number three.

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen

Okay. And the other question was on capital allocation.

Oliver, Roger, you may want to pitch in here as well but that sort of dividend versus buybacks.

Oliver Quinn

I actually couldn't hear the first question. Can you actually repeat exactly what it was, Shahin, so I answer it correctly?

ShahinAmini

The question was in terms of capture allocation, what is the sensitivities around dividends versus buybacks pitch as well. But I obviously -- this question obviously is also considered needs to consider for the private consolidation, where the new basic dividend policy will kick in.

Oliver Quinn

As you've seen when we announced the transaction we are committing to pay a $100 million per annum dividend. But there is also a line in there which I've shown on previous slides, that we will also distribute 50% of any excess free cash flow to shareholders as well.

And it is that excess free cash flow that we could consider going back into paying -- doing share buybacks. But at the moment it is not optimal for us to reinitiate the share buyback program, because of course what will be happening until the consolidation effectively, the position of BTG would be in terms of equity would be growing.

But we have the flexibility in the strategy that we have put together and the financial planning that we have done post the amalgamation to consider share buybacks again. Does that answer the question?

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen

Yes, it does.

Operator

We will now take the next question, and the question comes from the line of Sander Nilsen from Fearnley Securities.

Sander Nilsen

My first question, I was just wondering if you could tell us what is your take on the fact that the TotalEnergies is leaving Block 11B/12B in South Africa and I was wondering if this would maybe have an impact for Block 3B/4B? So that's the first question.

And then I was wondering if it's possible to say something on the capital structure post the completion with Prime, on my numbers, it seems like you have a lot of capacity there to maybe take on more leverage. So I was wondering, do you have a maximum leverage target in mind?

And then maybe third question, if you could just comment on, you mentioned the over lift that impacted a financial Prime in 2Q. What is the expectations there in maybe 3Q or 4Q or the second half of year?

And then finally the fourth question is on Equatorial Guinea, you mentioned that it is or seems to be an extremely attractive block, maybe in terms of volume or what you can -- what you're seeing there. It would be -- it would nice if you could elaborate a bit on that, please.

Roger Tucker

How do you want to distribute that?

Oliver Quinn

Actually Roger, sorry before that, can you just repeat your first question please?

Sander Nilsen

Yes, that was probably on the over lift. On the lift in Prime.

I was just wondering, are you currently in an over lift or an on lift precision net in Prime. What should we expect in 3Q, 4Q?

Oliver Quinn

Thank you for that. So shall we tackle that in order then?

So the first question was, what is Africa Oil’s take on TotalEnergies leaving 11B/12B South Africa and are there any indications for our Block 3B/4B? So over to you, Roger.

I have a first step at that question.

Roger Tucker

The first thing is that they're in two very distinct areas. Firstly, there is no indication at all that Total are not going to continue with 3B/4B, and the 11B/12B situation is a basically a long-term issue in because it's gas in marketing gas into South Africa.

And that is a different game than dealing with hopefully oil in the Orange basin. Now, we are actively looking and revisiting that asset to see if we see any additional value in it.

But to answer the specific question, there is no relationship between Total's decision to exit 11B/12B and our relationship with them in 3B/4B, but as I say, we are reviewing the situation with 11B/12B as we speak.

Shahin Amini

Perhaps the next question can be put to Pascal and that is the enlarged Africa Oil capital structure post Prime consolidation. There's obviously a lot of scope and that in large balance sheets and would be in control cash flows.

Pascal any views on the sort of potential for management of the capital structure there and leverage targets that you envisage?

Pascal Nicodeme

Yes, of course, the consolidation of Prime into Africa is going to allow us to streamline our existing debt facilities. At the moment, we have one RBL facilities, one at $750 million at the Prime level.

We have a corporate facility at the Africa level, which by the way has been reduced to $65 million in the second quarter and extended for three years. It's clear that when we consolidate the two assets we are probably going to keep -- and extend again, the RBL facility at the Prime level because this is today our most cost effective way to borrow.

So that is going to stay. The question we are asking at the moment is whether we need $750 million or less, probably less given the cash that we managed to accumulate.

It's a fact that the debt capacity at the Prime level will continue to be significant and probably much larger than the $750 million. But if we want to borrow more than the $750 million, we need a use for it.

And so, either we continue to grow organically in Agile and then we would have potential use is for that larger facility. So to answer in short, we will keep the RBL facility in place continue to roll it over maybe at a smaller amount.

We could potentially consider alternative financing sources on top of the RBL second ranking, potentially like bonds maybe at the Prime level or also at the Africa Oil level. And the corporate facility is not designed to stay in place after completion of the existing deal with BTG.

I mean, clearly that facility was a liquidity buffer just to plan for delays in dividends from Prime. But since we are going to consolidate the cash flows and put a single cash flow pulling mechanism for Prime and Africa, there is no intention to keep that facility in place.

So, I mean, I've given a few hints here, but I think that’s the framework around which we are thinking at the moment.

Roger Tucker

But the thing to say as well is that you're absolutely right there is significant headroom should we require to increase leverage for any reason. You're absolutely right.

And in certain models you get, we become under-leveraged in the -- as we model out. But you are right, there is significant headroom in the business.

Shahin, next question.

Shahin Amini

I suppose just one final point just to emphasize that under a consolidated Prime in large Africa Oil tax allocation framework, there will be a target net to EBITDA 1x, and that would be the general rule. And so, actually let's go to the fourth question that Sander asked and that was on Equatorial Guinea.

Do you want to share your views on the prospectivity on the two blocks, Roger, because obviously two very different blocks in terms of price and potential there.

Roger Tucker

The one that's highest on our focus is EG31, which is the infrastructure led block, which is adjacent to the LNG facility, which has got significant ledge in it. And we do see some significant features on that block.

And as I mentioned to you, we just have agreed with the government to extend the block slightly to the north. And we've taken an extra tranche of acreage in that area, because one of the significant prospects we identified does cross what was the block boundary, and I felt it was the best interest of the company to actually get the whole of the feature, the structure in there, do the work on that and then do the full farm out.

Because what you don't want to do is get into a unitization issue if you can avoid it. And that work is ongoing at the moment.

We have all the seismic over that. And what we are looking at, should they be successful is prospects, which are in the north of one TCF size is what we are -- would be focusing on.

And we believe they are in that block. Now, I will say the geology is not the most simple in there.

And this is taking us a bit of a very careful work to get this right. So as I say, we've extended the block a little bit to the north we've acquired not acquired, but we've got existing seismic and are reprocessing all of that and are very focused in that particular area on a very particular feature, which looks very interesting to us.

Shahin Amini

Sander, I just wonder from the answers received so far, do you require any further clarification or so far good?

Sander Nilsen

Sorry, Shahin in the line broke up a bit. Can you repeat?

Shahin Amini

I just wanted to double check with you that answers received so far, answer your questions. You don't have any further?

Sander Nilsen

No, it was fine. Thank you for that.

Shahin Amini

Just your final question and we'll go back to Pascal on that, and that was basically Pascal, the question is on over lift, under lift. Sorry.

We just had a bit of technical issue. Sounds like we lost Pascal's line on that.

Pascal Nicodeme

No, I think I'm on, can you hear me?

Shahin Amini

Yes, we can hear you. Pascal, can you.

Pascal Nicodeme

Yes, I will tackle that question on the under lift, over lift. I mean in terms of barrels, I mean this over lift, under lift position is meant to average out over the quarters as you can imagine.

We have a specific net entitlement to barrels that is predefined on a quarterly basis. And of course, every quarter we just have a right to a fixed number of cargoes.

So therefore, on some quarters, we are going to lift more than on entitlement. On some quarters, we are going to lift less.

So the sort of balance of this under lift or over lift position is going to fluctuate between a positive and a negative on a quarterly basis. So it's difficult to predict exactly how this is going to happen because it depends first on our entitlement and second, it depends on the cargo schedule.

So it's very difficult to give a prediction. And on top of that, the over lift and under lift position is a barrel position, is a position in barrel, while we are account for it on the books in a dollar value.

So, each time we multiply by an average sale price, which induce additional variations in terms of the over lift and under lift balance. So I would say that as a proxy, you can expect this under lift balance or over lift balance to converge towards zero at some point.

But I mean the nature of our business is that on the quarter to quarter basis, there will be fluctuation simply because our net entitlement is going to be different than the actual bowels we are lifting on the quarterly basis.

Operator

We'll now go to the next question and your next question comes to the line of Kevin Fisk from Scotiabank.

Kevin Fisk

Can you give us an update on Africa Oil's M&A strategy, if there's any ideas or details on what kind of assets you're looking at?

Shahin Amini

Oliver, do you want to have a go at that [indecipherable]?

Oliver Quinn

I think a couple of different ways to think about this. One is obviously we've got the transactions that we've announced to close.

So obviously, there's a couple of things there but Prime, as we talked about earlier, they close to -- close -- so very close on getting that done. But importantly, in parallel we are still very active in an M&A sense in terms of looking at opportunities, looking for things that can add to in organic growth.

So, we're not stopping and waiting is the message for that deal to close. We're very focused on that but equally parallel.

Look, I think then in terms of what are we looking for. It's a big question, but clearly, we've got at the moment a portfolio of very low unit costs, low carbon high quality assets.

Those are large scale assets of which we own relatively small shares. But we're very happy with that small shares of kind of world class assets.

So, look, I'll paraphrase Roger here, but we start rocks up. So we're very technically driven in the sense of asset quality.

And then we layer onto that what is the value in the other considerations. So again achieving -- trying to achieve a portfolio that has low unit cost, it's robust to oil price cycle and ultimately is high quality assets, is the shape that we like.

I think we see several things out there that tick that box and I think we've been open in our -- we announced the Prime consolidation bringing BTG into the cornerstone shareholder that for that will widen the lens a little bit there. So lots of opportunity in Africa, but equally there's opportunity kind of around the Atlantic margins in different places that we will -- we'll take into consideration.

But I think it's a one-liner that would give you is asset quality, right? That's our kind of key focus when we start to look at things.

Kevin Fisk

And maybe as a second question, is there a date or a requirement at some point to disclose the reserves associated with Venus now that there's been a few wells drilled?

Roger Tucker

Oliver, do you want to have a first step?

Oliver Quinn

Yes, I can. It's not first time I've had the question, right?

Look, I think, again, I mean most people know this, but of course the ownership structure here is what drives a lot of this in terms of what data we get to see directly that. So of course, our exposure is to our ownership of Impact.

Impact itself is a private company that is the licensed swap partner, joint operating agreement partner to sit hotel. We're kind of one set removed there, which is slightly unusual situation for these things.

And that's what kind of drives the disclosure that we get as an investor, if you like, rather than direct license owner. But I think look that said, as the project matures and more data comes and particularly I think in the next period as Total said publicly then moving to NFID decision in ‘25, then naturally I think there'll be more kind of disclosure around the project, around its scale of resource and particularly around the phasing and size of developments as they go forward, right?

And I think four wells drill on Venus well test done, up given Total probably sufficient information in our view to take a clear review on it. And then that works ongoing.

So as that work matures to support that FID decision, again, we'd expect more information to flow through the system.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [Herman Tal] from Pareto Securities.

Unidentified Analyst

I have question first on production agility. Production coming up this much after the quarter, but could you help us with thinking on production and especially decline rates into next year, and if we should expect some differences in oil gas with next year compared to this year.

And then also with $40 million roughly on CapEx spend so far this year. How does that compare to your initial expectations and would it -- should you expect that to possibly end in the lower range of guided $100 million to $130 million?

That's what you want?

Shahin Amini

Actually, I'll talk the first question -- the second question on the CapEx relative to guidance. As you've seen that semi-annual traffic expense so far, the first off of this year.

If you were to extrapolate that for the year, there is for cross to come on the lower end of that range, obviously there's a lot of activities going on including drilling on Akpo as you know is ongoing. The recontract has been renewed to October and can be renewed again.

So there's still a lot of activity on those fields, and we'll take a view on the CapEx in the third quarter and see where we stand in relation to the full year guidance. Now going to your first question, [Herman], which was on production at post quarter and decline rates.

I don’t know if, Pascal, Roger and Oliver have a view on that. I will hand over to Pascal and that is that we did have a statement in our press release and MD&A that indeed post quarter -- the second quarter, 2024.

If you look at the last monthly average production rate, the working interest is approximately 18,000 barrels equivalent per day. That compares to a second quarter working interest production of around 15,600.

So it is necessarily higher, and that really just reflects that during the second quarter, we were obviously still had the impact of the plant shot from the Apko field and the ramp up and that is now after the way. Looking further out, obviously the infield drilling is aimed at minimizing the decline rates.

But ultimately, I think from an investment case, you need to look at the pro weight development project. That is what is really going to give us material incremental production.

And you would've seen that from all those pro-form four on Slide 11. And in terms of your oil and gas ratio, we expect that before a probate comes in to be 80%, 20%.

So 80% liquid -- approximately 80% liquid, 20% gas but with pro weight coming on, and we expect that to move in favor of liquid, it could go back to 85% liquid and 50% gas. Does that answer your question [Herman]?

Unidentified Analyst

Yes. Excellent.

Operator

We will now take the next question, and the question comes from the line of David Round from Stifel.

David Round

Couple for me please. Firstly, just looking at your guidance, there's still a reasonable range of production outcomes.

So are you able to just talk about the assumptions that underpin the top or the bottom of that range please? The second question refers to the new wells at Akpo.

And just similar, I mean, are you able to say anything about the extent to which those wells have exceeded expectations? Were they drilled on new seismic?

And is there any read across to future wells or future reserve booking space?

Roger Tucker

I’ll have a crack at this. You're absolutely right David, the wells were drilled on the basis of 4D seismic in there.

And the 4D seismic program is working. We can identify or the operating can identify locations effectively and indeed, processing is just finished on the last 4D seismic program that we have acquired.

And the results of that was we haven't -- look favorable as well. So the interpretation of 4D is helping in identifying good infill locations.

But it is also important to stress that these fields have produced to date 2 billion barrels of oil. They're over the peak and they will decline, but they are declining industry standard rates and still have in excess of 1 billion barrels to produce.

And so, we've been absolutely clear in the production forecast we've get, given that there will be ultimately a decline as all these giant fields do. But the 4D seismic does seem to now be working very effectively on identifying the locations and indeed migration of fluids within the reservoir.

David Round

I understand what you're saying about expectations for decline. Would it be fair to say you perhaps have some more optimism about your ability to perhaps arrest that decline rate given the results you've seen to date yet?

Roger Tucker

I think what -- no. I don’t know whether anyone wants to jump in.

I think that the results of the current 4D, that is now being interpreted. We need to get under our belt to come back and revisit what the drilling -- the infill drilling program is going to look like.

And that is just coming out of the interpretation phase as we speak. But all I can say is it does work in here.

And so, we obviously want to minimize the decline rates as best we possibly can. And also, we're going to start to have to look at reducing costs, et cetera, et cetera, as you do, and as these fields get older.

As I say, the critical element here is there's still over a billion barrels to produce from these fields.

Operator

Thank you. There are currently no further phone questions.

I will hand back to Shahin for webcast questions.

Shahin Amini

Thank you, Sharon. There was a question from David Mazai one of our analysts and the question is, can you discuss how the operational capacity of Africa Oil will change to the Prime acquisition and what could this add in terms of personnel?

Oliver, do you want to go?

Oliver Quinn

Yes, sure. Thanks, Shahin.

So I think, obviously today Prime as a standalone company, if you like is the owner of the assets and they have a strong team in Netherlands that are acting as non-operator and managing the assets. Equally, in Africa, oil we've got, I think we've got a very strong team across the technical and commercial space.

And so of course we'll be bringing the two organizations together. And what that will do, I think from our perspective is Africa Oil, of course, we'll move one step closer to the assets from a management perspective, which is very positive in terms of visibility, in terms of kind of influence on the operators.

And equally with Prime, we'll bring in asset knowledge and several years of day to day, if you like on the assets. So the combination is very powerful.

I think from Africa Oil, what do we end up looking like? Much more like a conventional EMV company.

I think as individuals that experience is strong in the business but in bringing two organizations and the assets together, that will fill out the capacity, if you like in terms of running Nigeria. But what it will also do, of course, is expand our kind of bandwidth, if you like, in terms of the M&A things that we're looking at and the assets we're looking at as well.

So it's a very positive of the transaction.

Shahin Amini

Thank you, Oliver. We've only got a couple minutes left.

Roger, I've been getting a number of questions over the email and also through the webcast. And that is in applicable, effectively on standby in terms of new growth opportunities until the Prime consolidation is closed or can something get done sooner?

Are you able to comment on that?

Roger Tucker

The first thing is when does -- when is it going to close? And personally, I hope it is going to be well before the date that we've given us the long stop.

To a certain extent we are a little bit hide bound by the fact that we're in closing this transaction. However, we are actively working along with our colleagues at BTG on a -- and we have exactly the same strategy reviewing -- actively reviewing opportunities.

And if the right one comes along, we are formulating ways in which we can do it while before this deal completes. And so we are -- it isn't the simplest way of participating, but for the right deal rocks up, then we could structure something that could be done prior to completion.

But the critical element in this is that both BTG and Africa Oil have a very, very clear view on what would be an appropriate asset. Let's deal with, and so we are actively reviewing right now all of that.

And as I say, the key here is that you mustn't leap into the wrong thing. And so it's important to look exactly what is out there.

Do we like it? Does it fit?

And that screening process is actually going on right now.

Shahin Amini

Unfortunately, we've run out of time. Roger, do you have any final comments?

Roger Tucker

I don't think so. I think that was very useful.

Thank you very much.

Shahin Amini

And thank you. And over to the operator for the final comment.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call.

Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.