Herc Holdings Inc.

Herc Holdings Inc.

158.41
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Feb 16Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 27, 2026

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Herc Holdings' third-quarter 2026 earnings call.

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Leslie Hunziker, Investor Relations.

Leslie, please go ahead.

Leslie Hunziker

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today, we're reviewing our third-quarter 2026 results with comments on operations and our financials, including our view of the industry and our strategic outlook.

The prepared remarks will be followed by Q&A. Let me remind you that today's call will include forward-looking statements.

These statements are based on the environment as we see it today and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the press release, our Form 10-Q, and our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, as well as other filings with the SEC.

In addition, we'll be discussing non-GAAP information that we believe is useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. Reconciliations for these non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP equivalent can be found in the conference call materials.

Finally, please mark your calendars to join our management meetings at BNP Paribas' Virtual Global Group Call on November 3rd, the Baird Global Industrials Conference in Chicago on November 10th, Rothschild & Co Redburn's Virtual CEO Conference on December 1st, and the Melius Research Conference in New York on December 9th. This morning, I'm joined by Larry Silber, Chief Executive Officer; Aaron Birnbaum, President; and Mark Humphrey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

I'll now turn the call over to Larry.

Larry Silber

Thank you, Leslie, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment to address the announcement we made yesterday.

Leading this company has been an honor and a highlight of my career. After more than a decade as CEO, I've decided the time is right to transition to Executive Chairman at the start of next year.

I'm thrilled that Aaron Birnbaum will step in as Herc Rentals' next Chief Executive Officer on January 1st. This transition reflects the strength of our succession planning and my complete confidence in Aaron and the entire leadership team.

Aaron has been with Herc for more than 35 years. Over that time, he has served in key roles across branch operations, sales, regional field management, and executive leadership, and he understands this business as well as anyone in the industry.

As our Chief Operating Officer and, most recently, as President, Aaron been instrumental in shaping our strategy and driving our operational excellence. There is no one better prepared to lead Herc into its next chapter.

In my role as Executive Chairman, I will remain actively engaged, working closely with Aaron and the board on strategy, capital allocation, and continuing to build on the strong foundation we've established together. I could not be prouder of what this team has accomplished or more excited about where it's headed.

This quarter is a great example of why. The third quarter was an outstanding period for Herc Rentals, and it reflects the strategic positioning we've built over the past year.

As a reminder, in 2025, we closed the largest acquisition in our industry's history, and just nine months later, we completed the integration of H&E equipment services, which Aaron quarterbacked from start to finish. That work is now firmly behind us, and it has positioned us with a stronger and larger sales force, expanded scale, and increased fleet availability to capture a greater share of wallet across the robust mega project pipeline.

The third quarter is our first full quarter of comparable, year-over-year combined results, and the underlying performance is clear. Equipment rental revenue increased nearly 12% on an average OEC fleet growth of less than 2%.

That relationship, strong revenue growth on modest fleet growth, is the direct result of being good stewards of capital. We've managed our fleet assets tightly, aligned the right equipment to the right markets, and driven meaningful improvement in fleet efficiency, with dollar utilization up 360 basis points in the quarter.

This is exactly the kind of disciplined execution that defines Team Herc. Now turning to slide five, we continue to follow our proven playbook, executing against our long-term growth strategies.

First, we are growing the core. Our top-line growth continues to be led by national accounts, fueled by robust mega project activity across data centers, infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy.

Our increased scale and broader fleet capacity allow us to take on more of these large, complex projects and elevate our role with major contractors. Second, we are expanding specialty.

Specialty revenues grew double digits year over year in the quarter, and specialty once again represents 20% of our total fleet at OEC, up from 17% a year ago. Specialty is a higher-margin, higher-return category, and we continue to disproportionately invest here to support mega projects, our new specialty branches, and the cross-selling opportunities our larger customer base provides.

Third, we are elevating technology. As an industry leader, our proprietary ProControl platform remains a true differentiator, giving customers the insights and controls they need to track, measure, and manage their fleet for a safer, more efficient job site.

Finally, we continue to invest responsibly in our fleet to support highly visible customer demand while maintaining capital discipline and managing our balance sheet for the long term. Now moving on to slide six, our performance also reflects a culture built on accountability, collaboration, and shared commitment to our customers.

As our organization has grown, that culture has kept our teams aligned and focused on consistent execution. Above all, safety remains our first priority.

Our responsibility is to ensure our people have the training, tools, and well-maintained equipment to work safely and help our customers do the same. That commitment underpins everything we accomplish.

With that, let me turn it over to Aaron to walk you through our fleet performance and our operating initiatives. Aaron?

Aaron Birnbaum

Thank you, Larry, for your leadership and mentorship over the years. I am honored to step into the CEO role in January, and I look forward to continuing the great work we've started together.

I'm also excited to have the privilege of leading the best team in the industry. The expertise, resilience, and dedication Team Herc brings to our branches and our customers' job sites every day are truly what sets us apart.

In the third quarter, that dedication showed up in our results. Our expanded network, maturing specialty branches, broader fleet access, and stronger sales force are working together to serve more customer needs.

The investments and integration work of the past year are translating into more effective execution across the organization and contributing to the second-half momentum we anticipated. Turning to slide eight, our fleet management approach is about more than deciding what to buy and what to sell.

It's about understanding customer requirements, coordinating equipment across our network, and getting the most productive use from the capital we already have invested. Our larger footprint gives us more flexibility to meet those requirements.

We can draw on our broader equipment base, coordinate fleet across nearby branches, and support large projects without treating every new opportunity as a separate fleet purchase. That expert fleet management is central to the efficiency Larry highlighted.

At the same time, we are making targeted investments where customer demand supports attractive returns. We added approximately $580 million of fleet at original equipment cost in the third quarter or about $1.2 billion year to date, supporting life-cycle replacement, mega project demand, and our expanding specialty offering.

We also disposed of approximately $200 million of fleet at OEC versus $375 million in last year's third quarter. The lower level of dispositions reflects a different operating priority.

In the third quarter of 2025, we were actively rightsizing and aligning the acquired fleet. Today, our focus is ongoing life-cycle management and refining the mix to match demand.

A key part of refining that mix is our specialty offering. As Larry noted, specialty equipment now represents 20% of our total fleet at OEC.

That matches our pre-acquisition mix. When we acquired H&E, which was weighted toward general rental equipment, our specialty share initially declined to 17%.

Returning to 20% this quickly reflects our targeted investment in specialty equipment to meet customer demand and intentional cross-selling activities to achieve our revenue synergy goals. These assets generate higher dollar utilization and higher margins, but the value we bring goes beyond the equipment itself.

Our specialty teams provide the expertise that helps customers solve complex job-site challenges, enabling us to address more of their needs and deepen those relationships. We continue to direct investment toward specialty and mega project requirements while carefully managing general rental capacity in stable local markets.

Ultimately, the goal is not simply a larger fleet, it's the right fleet deployed productively with returns guiding our decisions. On slide nine, the demand environment continues to be bifurcated and our diversification continues to serve us well.

Local market activity remains stable overall. Infrastructure, government, and maintenance-related demand continue to help offset softness in interest rate-sensitive commercial construction.

National accounts, meanwhile, continue to lead our expansion. Our increased scale matters here.

With greater branch density and a broader specialty offering, our sales teams can serve more of a customer's requirements across multiple projects and locations and strengthen relationships with major contractors. Our long-term diversification strategy remains focused on a balance of local and national accounts.

The current strength of national account demand is an opportunity we are equipped to serve while maintaining the local presence and customer relationships that support resilience across the cycle. Slide 10 shows the breadth of that customer base.

We serve contractors, industrial customers, infrastructure and government agencies, commercial facilities, and customers with event-driven requirements. Those end markets have different demand cycles, equipment needs, and service expectations.

Our advantage is combining that breadth with sector expertise. A manufacturing facility, a utility project, and a data center may all need general rental equipment, but their specialty requirements and operating schedules can be very different.

Our sales professionals and product specialists work together to build the right solution for each customer. The larger specialty network gives those teams more to offer.

It also creates opportunities to introduce specialty solutions to customers who previously rented only general rental equipment from us. That is how diversification translates into business development, more ways to serve existing customers and more entry points into new accounts and less dependence on any single market.

Turning to slide 11, the external forecasts provide context for the opportunities our teams are pursuing. Dodge's updated projection is for nearly $723 billion of US mega project starts in 2026, well above the level we saw in 2025.

For 2027, Dodge is currently reporting about $778 billion of mega project starts with trillions of dollars more still working through the planning stages. As we discussed last quarter, we are targeting a 20% share of the mega project rental opportunity over time, counting only our revenue from projects where Herc is a designated primary or secondary supplier.

The pipeline we are pursuing continues to expand across project types and in markets. Our focus is converting those opportunities into rental activity through strategic project selection, coordinated fleet deployment, and reliable execution for customers.

Turning to slide 12, this is the progression we outlined at the beginning of the year. The third quarter demonstrates how that preparation is translating into performance.

Revenue synergies were an increasing contributor in the quarter, consistent with the second-half weighting we previously outlined. That momentum is the direct result of our operational progress.

Our newer specialty locations are maturing, our sales teams are successfully cross-selling the broader offering, and our larger network is enabling deeper penetration into national accounts. Beyond the acquisition synergies, we continued to focus on operating efficiencies at our larger scale.

The logistics transformation initiative we discussed last quarter is a multiyear effort to improve routing, process rigor, cost recovery, and consistency across the network. Those priorities remain important, especially in an environment of elevated fuel and freight costs.

As we move through the fourth quarter, our operating agenda is straightforward: serve the expanding project pipeline, maintain efficient fleet deployment, and keep improving execution across the network. The team has done the work to build this platform.

Now, we're putting it to work for our customers and shareholders. Mark will now take you through the financial results and our updated outlook.

Mark?

Mark Humphrey

Thanks, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. I'm on slide 14 with a summary of our key financial metrics.

Equipment rental revenue increased approximately 12% in the third quarter, reflecting growth in both our general rental and specialty solutions offerings, driven by higher mega project volume, pricing improvement, and improved fleet mix. This is our first full quarter with H&E included in both reporting periods.

Last year's third quarter was still an active integration period, including free fleet realignment, sales territory reallocation, and systems migration. This quarter's results reflect the operating benefits of that early work.

Total revenue increased approximately 5% in the quarter. The difference between rental revenue growth and total revenue growth primarily reflects lower revenue from equipment sales following the elevated dispositions associated with fleet optimization last year.

Adjusted EBITDA increased about 9%, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 190 basis points to 44.2%. I want to distinguish the consolidated margin result from the performance of the rental business itself.

With equipment sales lower year over year, rental revenue represented a larger proportion of total revenue, which benefited the adjusted EBITDA margin. REBITDA, which measures contribution from our core rental business, excluding equipment sales, increased roughly 10%, and REBITDA margin was 45.2%.

While this was down 70 basis points year over year, the headline understates the underlying strength of the rental business. Higher rental volume, pricing improvement, and H&E revenue and cost synergies all benefited margin.

However, this quarter, those benefits were more than offset by core operating cost inflation, higher field incentive compensation tied to operational outperformance, particularly in fleet efficiency, and fuel and freight inflation. On fuel and freight specifically, these pressures, including the related ancillary revenue mix effect, accounted for approximately 100 basis points of year-over-year REBITDA margin pressure.

That compares with 170 basis points of pressure in the second quarter. Even with diesel costs higher sequentially, we delivered significantly improved recovery quarter over quarter.

While we continue to focus on improving delivery economics and transportation efficiency across our network, including through the logistics transformation initiative Aaron discussed. Adjusted net income was $131 million or $3.91 per diluted share.

Turning to slide 15, we generated $133 million of free cash flow through the first nine months of the year. We ended the quarter with ample liquidity of $2.1 billion and net leverage of 3.9 times, down from 3.95 times at the end of June.

We also paid our regular quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share. Our capital allocation priorities remain consistent: invest where we see attractive returns, maintain financial flexibility, and reduce leverage as the earnings contribution from our larger platform builds.

That brings me to our updated outlook on slide 16, which reflects the expanding mega project portfolio in front of us. You can see the new guidance ranges here.

At the midpoint, we now expect full-year equipment rental revenue of $4.513 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.13 billion, up about 2% from the previous guidance. We are also increasing our net fleet CapEx to approximately $1.05 billion at the midpoint, driven by an increase in gross purchases that will be partially funded by higher fleet dispositions.

This additional investment is primarily for specialty equipment to support newly won or expanded mega project assignments in the fourth quarter. It is tied to identified customer requirements, not a speculative fleet build or an assumption of a broader market recovery.

These are multiyear projects, and the equipment we add in the fourth quarter will be in place to serve customers for the entirety of 2027 and beyond. Because of this, we view this roughly $150 million of incremental net fleet CapEx as effectively being pulled forward from our 2027 fleet budget.

These assets also help us maintain manageable time utilization and availability needed to deliver reliable service. We're balancing the productive use of our fleet with the capacity to respond to customers rather than maximizing utilization at the expense of availability.

Importantly, the updated guidance continues to reflect substantial fleet efficiency. At the new midpoint, we expect second-half equipment rental revenue growth of approximately 14% on average OEC fleet growth of approximately 4%, culminating in full-year pro forma rental revenue growth of about 8% on roughly 2% average OEC growth.

We're generating meaningfully more revenue from our asset base while selectively adding equipment where customer demand supports attractive returns. What does this CapEx increase mean for our free cash flow and deleveraging path?

First, our 2026 free cash flow guidance remains unchanged at $250 to $350 million. Second, and more importantly, because this equipment is tied to immediate mega project demand, it will go on rent and begin contributing to EBITDA right away in the fourth quarter.

The real power of the investment is in 2027 and beyond when we capture the full-year EBITDA benefit of these high-margin specialty assets. As a reminder, growing EBITDA is the single most powerful lever we have for reducing our leverage ratio.

By securing this fleet now for committed projects, we are rapidly growing the denominator of that ratio. This investment doesn't delay our deleveraging path.

It actively supports it. It gives us a higher EBITDA baseline entering next year and will be evaluated as 2027 capital as we build out next year's fleet plan.

Deleveraging is a top priority, and we remain focused on returning to the top of our targeted leverage range by the end of 2027. The bottom line, demand continues to exceed our expectations, and our team is capturing that opportunity through active asset management and targeted deployment.

As a result, we're raising our earnings outlook and strengthening the setup for 2027. Now, let's open it up for questions.

Operator?

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality.

If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Your first question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Rob Wertheimer

Thank you. Good morning, and congratulations, Larry.

Larry Silber

Thank you. Morning, Rob.

Rob Wertheimer

I think you kind of touched on some of the headwinds to margin in the quarter. You have obviously the fuel and some other things.

Do you think that you're getting as much rate as you need to offset natural inflation? Do you think that we see higher incrementals as you kind of roll through the next quarter with the full kind of entity operating as a unified whole?

Mark Humphrey

Yeah. It's a great question.

I think that obviously rate is always a focus. I think when we evaluated sort of Q3, it performed about where we thought it would.

At the same time, I would say that from a one-year view, rate is not sort of at the same level as inflation, particularly in mind of the fuel and the freight impacts. That's always a focus for us, and we'll continue to focus on that as we sort of round into 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Tami Zakaria

Hi. Good morning.

Thank you so much. Very nice quarter.

I know it's probably a little too early, but as you think about next year, any preliminary thoughts on whether rental revenue growth can outpace OEC growth to the same degree we saw in 3Q and what you're expecting for 4Q?

Mark Humphrey

Yeah. I think if you look at Q3, right, that was a 12 over a 2.

I think if you look at the midpoints, as I said, you're kind of looking at 16 at the midpoint rev growth on fleet growth of 5. I think some of that continues into the front half of next year, Tami, but begins to normalize a bit more as you get into 3Q and 4Q of 2027.

I think I would say, fleet efficiency is always our mantra. It will continue to be something that we focus on.

I think that, in this environment, the good news is that the fleet ads aren't necessarily speculative. We sort of know what we're buying, and we know that that fleet is going on rent, which certainly helps this fleet efficiency.

I think we'll continue to do that as we walk into 2027.

Tami Zakaria

Understood. That's very helpful.

Then quickly, could you remind us how much incremental synergies in terms of revenues and cost you have left or you are expecting in 2027?

Mark Humphrey

Yeah. We said we were going to get 90 incremental on the cost side and 110 to 120 incremental on the rev side.

I would say, as we sit here today, both of those are on track. I have said that we will give sort of a full report out come February of sort of how both of those things performed.

I think the message today is both are on track.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Mig Dobre

All right. Thank you for the time.

Aaron and Larry, congrats to both of you. My first question is on dollar utilization.

That looked quite good this quarter. Unless I'm wrong in my model here, I got to go back to 2022 to find a Q3 that looks similar to this one.

I guess my question, as we sort of think about especially the forward outlook, right, Q4, but even into 2027, how should we think about dollar utilization maybe relative to a strong year like 2022? Is it possible that we're going to see on a seasonally adjusted basis, obviously, but similar performances to what we had then?

What are some of the moving pieces that you'd encourage us to consider here in terms of what you can physically get in terms of physical utilization from the equipment relative to rental rates or mix or anything else?

Aaron Birnbaum

Hey, Mig. Thank you.

I'll take that question. The impetus to dollar u for us in the quarter was definitely our specialty business getting back to 20% of our fleet, right?

With the premium nature of that type of fleet, though, and the returns you get, that really helped us get that dollar u to that level in Q3. Time u was strong.

That's the other input. I wouldn't call it a record.

We still have work to do on certain categories as we kind of invest in the fourth quarter and going into next year. Those are the two inputs.

Pricing was starting to improve as we went through the rest of the year. We really had to kind of get through the integration and start to harmonize our business in a lot of ways.

Those are three inputs. When we look at where do we go from here, we're happy with where we were in Q3 with that dollar u.

We think that our first goal is to get back to where we were pre-acquisition, which is a 42% annual run rate. Then we'll continue to build annually on top of that.

The more you can get your specialty business as a part of your business, it's going to get some fuel to that overall dollar u. That's our mission as we go out beyond just '27.

Mig Dobre

All right. That's helpful.

My follow-up, since you brought up the mix and that specialty is now 20% of the overall OEC, I also heard you say that, some of the increased CapEx is almost kind of like a pull forward relative to 2027. I understand you're not providing guidance today, but I'm sort of curious as to what the right general framework is to think about CapEx, and frankly, to think about free cash flow here as well as we think about the path for delevering hopefully by year-end 2027.

Thank you.

Mark Humphrey

No, it's certainly a fair question, Mig. I think it will be a combination of those two.

I think in order to delever, coming out of '27 to the top end of that, EBITDA growth will be paramount in that. Doesn't mean we're turning our back on free cash flow.

We will provide the growth capital necessary to continue to support our customers. With that, I think it's first and foremost EBITDA growth, free cash flow, and in terms of the mix to get you to the top end of that guide as we walk out of 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Jerry Revich

Hi. Good morning, everybody.

Larry and Aaron, congratulations. Larry, I was just looking back.

When you took over, the business was about EPS break even. Dollar u was about 10 points lower.

Congratulations on the fantastic improvement in the profile of the operations. I wanted to ask on the outlook for pricing that Aaron and Mark, you spoke to.

Typically, time u leads pricing. It sounds like pricing for you folks improved over the course of the quarter.

Is it fair to think about pricing accelerating into year two of the recovery, as we typically see for your business? Or is there anything we need to keep in mind compared to that normal cyclical pattern where you folks had a time u acceleration this year and pricing acceleration should hopefully follow?

Aaron Birnbaum

Yeah. Hey, Jerry.

Thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated.

As pricing has always been top of mind for me and for Herc since I got here, and we're focused on it. We are operating in a very rational and constructive pricing environment right now.

Supply dynamics are healthy. Cost inflation, including fuel and freight, is an incremental incentive to raise rate.

However, the magnitude of the inflection will depend on spot market recovery going forward.

Jerry Revich

Okay. Thank you, Larry.

Can I ask in terms of where you folks are delivering more equipment, the semi fab CapEx outlook is for roughly a doubling '27 versus '26. Can you just talk about the magnitude of deliveries that you've already made to these sites?

They're well positioned relative to your footprint. Just curious what you folks are seeing in the planned delivery onto those sites over the next couple of quarters based on what your visibility looks like.

Aaron Birnbaum

Jerry, it sounded like you were specifically asking about chip plants? Is that right?

Jerry Revich

That's right, Aaron. That's right.

Given your footprint, that's exactly right.

Aaron Birnbaum

Yeah. We feel like we're well positioned there.

There was an initial wave, I guess maybe it was 2021, 2022, with a lot of chip plant activity. We didn't have the footprint we have today then.

We, we were able to secure a fair amount of activity from those plants that came online at that time. Now there's another wave.

That's what you're referring to. This is something we're we're monitoring.

We're feel like we're well positioned. Those are great projects.

They have very long project timelines. They last several years.

Some of the ones we've seen in the news are are extremely large projects. We're excited about that.

I think it's it's helpful, just for the overall diversification of the mega landscape, that those big projects are coming coming out again in different parts of the US. We feel like we're well positioned for that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Newman with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Ken Newman

Hey. Thanks.

Good morning, guys. Larry, congrats on the transition, and looking forward to working with you more, Aaron, going forward.

First question for me, the operating leverage this quarter was a lot more impressive than I would have expected. I know you're not ready to talk about '27 guidance yet, but from a high-level perspective, is there a way to think about baseline EBITDA flow through if the market dynamics continue to be this strong?

I know there's lots of puts and takes on the synergy capture and what the mix of the fleet is doing. But 90% EBITDA flow-through, I think, is maybe the strongest I've ever seen.

It seems like the next quarter is going to be even stronger potentially. Just trying to level-set the expectations for next year in terms of how that could flow through.

Mark Humphrey

Yeah. I think, obviously, from a prepared remarks perspective, Ken, tried to touch on that a little bit, right?

The sort of benefit to the quarter was sort of a decrease in dispositions of fleet in that comp, right? I think that certainly begins to normalize as we work our way through 2027 into a more normalized comp as well.

I think the way high-level, 2027 plays out is, front-half comps are much more favorable than the back-half comps. Then I think you think about the growth coming, Aaron talked about tighter time utilization in Q3 and anticipated into Q4, I think that carries through into the front half of the year, and then the back half of the year is supported by incremental fleet growth as we work our way through 2027.

That kind of 5,000-foot view, Ken, is sort of how I would think about the overall sort of activity of '27.

Ken Newman

Understood. Then maybe just a quick one here.

Solid work on offsetting the headwinds from higher transportation costs. I think you said there's about 100 basis points of headwind.

If I remember correctly, I think you guys are looking for about 150 this quarter. Just sorry if I missed this.

Are you still expecting 100 basis points of margin headwind for the full year from delivery and ancillary costs?

Mark Humphrey

You're probably not too far off if 4Q behaves the way 3Q behaves, right? We've done yeoman's work on sort of the recovery on the refuel side of this, and that came through this quarter.

The reality of that, though, is you've got more fuel revenue, which is sort of not necessarily accretive to your overall business margins, right? You got a little bit of overhang there as this elevation of fuel comes through.

We've recovered sort of the margin to pre-inflation. Yeoman's work there.

The pieces of this that remain problematic are really the sales and service vehicles and sort of that interbranch transfer component, which has sort of got all of that same fuel increase running through it. We'll continue to focus on all of those.

Quite honestly, the biggest sort of go-get is incremental price and overall efficiency of the freight operation to sort of mitigate those factors. I think the other thing I would say, right, if this continues into 2027, you do get a comp break when you get to Q2 of 2027 cuz that's when this first elevated view started coming through.

Even in the event of it continuing, we will get sort of the benefit of the work we've done as we comp into next year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kyle Menges of Citi. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Kyle Menges

Thank you, and congrats Larry and Aaron. I wanted to touch more on mega projects.

Last quarter, you did up your target market share on mega projects. I'm curious how you're seeing that track as we've progressed through 2026.

You had a good slide on the pipeline of projects for 2027. I'm sure you're already having conversations with those customers now.

Based on how those customer conversations are progressing, I'm curious if you would anticipate your mega project share to be higher next year versus this year.

Aaron Birnbaum

Kyle. Thank you.

Regarding our position in megas, it's been a good tailwind for us this year. We I think as we got through the middle of the year, it got stronger and stronger.

We we with that visibility and kind of fully integrating the H&E acquisition, we thought that we had hit the top end of our 15% share in the mega arena, and we wanted to move the needle, right, because we thought we had more capabilities and capacities. We moved it to 20%.

That'll take us some time to get there. It won't happen in, 2027.

We view it as a kind of a, a few-year kind of journey. Our capabilities will help us get there.

When we look at the setup, now we're in the fourth quarter, the setup for next year, the pipeline is strong. We're getting more wins, and it's partly the reason why we had to take the CapEx up in the fourth quarter to get us, get some of that fleet in place for the the beginning-of-the-year start.

We view next year as robust and and solid in the mega space as 2026. I think our capabilities, our new scale, are really the reasons that we're able to kind of move, our position and strengthen it and ultimately, like you mentioned, get to 20% share in the mega project arena.

Kyle Menges

That's helpful, Aaron. A follow-up on that.

It looks like, just from your slide deck, you are sticking to that long-term target of 60% local mix. In light of the strength in mega projects, and today you're below that mix, I guess I'd like to hear your thoughts on why that 60% local mix is still the right mix long term.

Aaron Birnbaum

Yeah. In our opinion, since Larry became the CEO, we've had an urban market strategy.

That's how we've built out our network to get scale in the largest, initially it was the largest 50 markets, now it's the largest 100 markets. There's parts of the local market that are attractive.

The price point for rental is stronger than on the large customer side. We're just at a cycle right now where the big projects is swinging up and the local market is stable, and as we've been saying for the last few quarters.

That we know that cycle will change again, we want to be prepared for when that happens. The H&E acquisition was a local market play.

It gave us the scale. That's a big part of this rental industry and not something we want to take our eyes off of because diversification is the key.

We want to make sure we're in all those situations where we can be successful.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Tyler with Rothschild & Co Redburn. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Neil Tyler

Yeah. Thank you.

Good morning. Just wanted to come back to the topic of synergies, actually, and the component of the revenue synergies that you have targeted that relates to evening up the rate at the H&E customers.

Can you talk a little bit around and how that is progressing in what is an improving rate environment, whether that actually makes that more achievable or even or potentially more difficult? Then, Mark, if you'd just remind us in terms of the flow-through on those revenue synergies, how you're thinking about that currently?

Aaron Birnbaum

Hi, Neil. It's Aaron.

I'll take the first part of that. As it relates to the synergies and rate and the acquisition, we're really happy where our synergies have landed for the first year and a half since we closed on the transaction.

Our teams have worked very, very hard, and it's been a great story. One piece is we're able to expand our specialty network, and the other piece is we're able to drive revenues with customers that typically wouldn't have rented those equipments from H&E at the time.

We really drove that synergy. Now we're going on into a subsequent year.

It's kind of a three-year play revenue synergies is for us. When we purchased the business, the price point was lower than the Herc Rentals price point.

We view that in two pieces. One is the spot market, right, which is the local market.

It's the transaction market that happens every day. We bolted that business onto our algorithm, pricing tools within a few months.

That started to kind of match up with what Herc was typically charging for those type of transactions. I think we got the benefit of the scale of the business, but also the market dynamics of a tightening utilization going out there.

That built some momentum for pricing opportunity. The second piece that we mentioned, and I'll remind, is that H&E did have some contract customers, call it 30% of their business was contract customers.

We said it would take us three years to match those rates with those customers that Herc expected. We weren't going to go get it all at the same time.

What was most important is holding on to those customers and driving our synergies and our product diversification into them and building strong relationships. We viewed it as a taking one-third price lift over a three-year period.

In a three years, we would get there. We've been doing that.

The first year, we took that one-third piece, and it might not have been exactly the price we won on existing Herc customer, but we did move the needle. Now we're going into the second year.

I think that the time utilization, the health of the market is our tailwinds to helping us kind of achieve that goal. We look towards next year as another year of kind of turning the needle a bit and becoming more sticky with customers, we have more opportunities to do that.

We have some work to do to kind of harmonize that piece of the business. We started doing that in the back half of this year.

Then as we roll into next year, our pricing harmonization will improve, we believe.

Mark Humphrey

Neil, the second part of your question, the original assumption as the guide was laid out was somewhere in that 65% to 70% flow-through on revenue synergies. I think that you're probably at the low end of that as we're sort of walking through 2026.

I think as the branch optimization and all of those underlying branches mature, I think you get to something that's closer to 70 in the out year.

Neil Tyler

Great. Thanks, guys.

That's really helpful.

Mark Humphrey

Thanks, Neil.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Steven Ramsey

Good morning, and my congratulations to everyone. I wanted to hear a bit more on your positioning on mega projects.

Do you find yourself more and more being a prime supplier versus a secondary as you move through this year or what you're bidding on that will hit next year? Are there any intentional, strategic moves you're making on how you're positioned on these projects?

Aaron Birnbaum

Steven, it's a good question. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, when we talk about our position in mega projects, it's always about, hey, do we have a secondary or a primary position?

Are we the first or second supplier with an agreement with the customer? We don't really measure the tertiary activity that's going on.

As we've gone through the last 12 months, our positioning is strengthened. I would say those are related to two issues.

One is our strengthening position and relationship with large GCs, those are the ones that are doing most of the projects. Then the H&E acquisition gave us the scale to build the confidence and the fleet to go move in quicker and the confidence that we can execute on those jobs.

General contractors on mega projects and people in the industry know this, they want to make sure you can execute, right? They're not taking too many chances on an entity that can't provide the safety, can't provide the high-quality equipment, and the technology and the response to the service that's required.

The more we position as a one or two, the more we expect that we'll win more new opportunities. Having a strong national account team is really critical to that.

Then you have to have the operational acumen to mobilize. When you're mobilizing this kind of fleet, it's an exercise, the fleet planning, the demand planning of what's going to be needed on the job, and then the kind of the forward operating view on what needs to happen out there.

We have teams that we've put together over the last several years that that's what they do. It's not something we had five years ago, but we have dedicated operation and sales teams that focus in this arena, cuz it's the opportunity where we have the capabilities, and that's where we want to go find revenue opportunities for the company.

Steven Ramsey

Okay. That's helpful.

Then on the specialty locations gaining momentum, are they at a point where you need more fleet on them to keep growing? Or is it more get operations more in line before adding fleet to those new locations?

Larry Silber

Yeah. Good question, Steven.

This is Larry. Look, these specialty locations are ramping.

These new 50 locations are ramping as we'd expect. Just like any business, as they mature, you continue to give them the ability to ramp and acquire fleet as they show that they've matured in terms of technical knowledge, in terms of customer reach and ability to achieve fleet efficiency.

We're not there yet in a vast majority of them, and there's ample opportunity in the future as they continue to mature in those markets to add more capital as they as they grow and they grow efficiently.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Please go ahead.

Seth Weber

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Sorry if I missed this, but Mark, in your prepared comments, you used the phrase pull forward on CapEx. Sorry if I missed this, but should we assume that CapEx for 2027 is going to be up at this point or I'm just trying to think about what that phrase pull forward means for next year.

Thanks.

Mark Humphrey

No. Fair question.

I think what that really means is that we're sort of viewing that, call it, $150 million sort of at the midpoint as part of the 2027 CapEx. The beauty of that fleet is it now works for us the entirety of the year.

Generally speaking, you think about fleet ads and you divide by two to sort of think about the benefit you're getting from those fleet ads in any given year. We're contemplating that fleet as part of the 2027 plan.

Not ready to sort of publicize sort of the overall gross fleet CapEx yet for 2027. We're still working through all of that, as you would imagine.

Come February, we'll provide that guide.

Seth Weber

Thanks. Then, just local markets being stable, I think that's been your message for a while now.

Are you still thinking that we need a decline in interest rates for that to turn more positive, or I'm just trying to think through what to get the local markets to be better here in intermediate term?

Larry Silber

Seth. Look, absolutely.

We believe that that's a big key to what I would call continued development and growth above a stable market really requires that commercial market to accelerate, and that commercial market's not going to accelerate unless there is an appropriate interest rate sort of environment for that. You got to look at the 10-year Treasury and what's happening there, and that will impact where that market goes.

Look, we are firmly positioned in the local markets, particularly in the large, more densely populated areas. Once that turns around, we will participate, certainly in an outsized way to achieve results and capture share in those markets.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Hunziker for closing remarks.

Leslie Hunziker

Thank you for joining us on the call today. We certainly look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters to come.

Of course, if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending.

You may now disconnect.